期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-15 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国 ...

2026 年 01 月 15 日 工业硅：下游减产，需求走弱 多晶硅：底部震荡态势 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,755 | 120 | -225 | 470 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 245,936 | -24,140 | -231,450 | 42,007 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 235,089 | -7,380 | -9,645 | 88,015 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 48,945 | -60 | -9,355 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 20,942 | -7,437 | 361 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 48,439 | -405 | -19,361 ...

成文日期：20260112 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:棕榈油 研究员：游镇齐（从业资格号：F3012673;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012990) 棕榈油期货日报 1 期货市场 棕榈油期货主力合约 P2605 收盘价为 8,724元/吨,较前一交易 日上涨 0.93%；当日开盘价 8,630 元/吨，最高价 8,748元/吨，最 低价 8,574 元/吨，成交量 512,074 手，成交额 443.39 亿元。 数据来源：wh6,国金期货 棕榈油主力合约分时图 2 现货市场 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线: 4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 预期。 4 行情展望 预计短期区间震荡运行。短期受技术性反弹支撑,但高库存与 进口补充压力制约上行空间，需关注马来西亚产量变化及国内进口 到港节奏。 风险揭示及免责声明 国金期货已取得中国证监会期货交易咨询业务资格。本报告由国金期货有限责任公 司制作,未获授权,任何单位或个人不得对本报告进行任何形式的修改、复制和发布。 本报告基本资讯、数据、图片均来源于公开资料、第三方数据或调研 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: Doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO is expected to shrink [2][4] - Soybean oil: Limited momentum for US soybeans, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effects of crude oil [2][4] - Soybean meal: Range - bound, waiting for the progress of the China - Canada trade event [2][8] - Soybean No.1: Rebound and fluctuate [2][8] - Corn: Focus on the spot market [2][11] - Sugar: Mainly show a weak trend [2][15] - Cotton: Continue the adjustment trend [2][19] - Eggs: Spot market is profitable, and sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [2][25] - Hogs: Demand expectations are priced in ahead of time [2][28] - Peanuts: Fluctuate within a range [2][32] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,748 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.34%, and night - session closing price was 8,644 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.19%. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,000 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.18%, and night - session closing price was 7,982 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22% [4] - **Macro and industry news**: Indonesia cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year, maintaining the current 40% palm - based fuel and 60% diesel ratio. It will also raise the export levy on crude palm oil from 10% to 12.5% starting from March 1. Analysts believe that the upward catalyst for crude palm oil prices may have disappeared, and the plan to raise export taxes may further suppress prices [5][6] - **Trend strength**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend strength of - 1 [7] Soybean meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental data**: DCE Soybean No.1 2605's day - session closing price was 4323 yuan/ton with a decline of 31 yuan (- 0.71%), and night - session closing price was 4332 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan (+ 0.07%). DCE Soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price was 2751 yuan/ton with a decline of 25 yuan (- 0.90%), and night - session closing price was 2754 yuan/ton with an increase of 5 yuan (+ 0.18%) [8] - **Macro and industry news**: On January 14, CBOT soybeans had a technical rebound. Private exporters reported selling 33.4 tons of soybeans to China in 2025/26. China's soybean imports in December 2025 were 804 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%, and the total imports in 2025 were estimated to be 111.8 million tons, an increase of 6.5%. However, Brazil's record soybean harvest may reduce China's demand for US soybeans [10] - **Trend strength**: Both soybean meal and soybean No.1 have a trend strength of 0 [10] Corn - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,272 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.70% during the day and 2,282 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.44% at night. The closing price of C2605 was 2,275 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22% during the day and 2,278 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.13% at night [12] - **Macro and industry news**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices were basically flat, and Guangdong Shekou prices were also stable. Northeast deep - processing corn prices were stable with a slight increase, while North China corn prices declined slightly [13] - **Trend strength**: Corn has a trend strength of 0 [14] Sugar - **Fundamental data**: The raw sugar price was 14.68 cents/pound with a decline of 0.21. The mainstream spot price was 5350 yuan/ton with an increase of 10 yuan. The futures main - contract price was 5299 yuan/ton with an increase of 46 yuan [15] - **Macro and industry news**: As of December 31, 2025/26, India's sugar production increased by 24% year - on - year, and it had signed 180,000 tons of export contracts. Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November (- 90,000 tons). CAOC expects China's sugar production in 2025/26 to be 11.7 million tons, consumption to be 15.7 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million tons in 2025/26 [15][16][17] - **Trend strength**: Sugar has a trend strength of - 1 [18] Cotton - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,810 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.34% during the day and 14780 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.20% at night. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,835 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.34% during the day and 20820 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07% at night [19] - **Macro and industry news**: Cotton spot trading was generally light, and the overall price of pure - cotton yarn was stable with a slight decline. ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate slightly [20][21] - **Trend strength**: Cotton has a trend strength of 0 [22] Eggs - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of eggs 2602 was 2,958 yuan/500 kilograms with a decline of 0.94%, and the closing price of eggs 2603 was 3,007 yuan/500 kilograms with a decline of 0.56% [25] - **Trend strength**: Eggs have a trend strength of 0 [26] Hogs - **Fundamental data**: The Henan spot price was 13030 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13000 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 13260 yuan/ton. The price of hogs 2603 was 12010 yuan/ton, hogs 2605 was 12260 yuan/ton, and hogs 2607 was 12885 yuan/ton [29] - **Trend strength**: Hogs have a trend strength of - 1 [30] Peanuts - **Fundamental data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, Henan Baisha common peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK603 was 7,844 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%, and PK605 was 7,860 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10% [32] - **Macro and industry news**: In the spot market, the prices in Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong were generally stable with a slight decline in some areas [33] - **Trend strength**: Peanuts have a trend strength of 0 [34]

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期货市场交易指引 2026 年 01 月 15 日 交易咨询业务资格： 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 曹雪梅：Z0015756 电话：027-65777102 邮箱：caoxm2@cjsc.com.cn | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢高做空 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 低位谨慎持多，滚动操作 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 偏强运行 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 低多思路 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 15 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货1月14日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变 | | | | | | | | （%） | （万手） | 化 | | SA605 | 1211 | 1232 | 1206 | 1222 | -2 | -0.16 | 119.14 | -15412 | | SA609 | 1271 | 1293 | 1268 | 1284 | -1 | -0.07 | 12.58 | 569 | | FG605 | 1099 | 1102 | 10 ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 15 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 二、行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 15 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（1 月 14 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指盘中创逾十年新高后冲高回落。截止收盘， 沪指跌 0.31%，收报 4126.09 点；深证成指涨 0.56%，收报 14248.60 点；创业板指涨 0.82%，收报 3349.14 点。 沪深京三市成交额接近四万亿，今日达到 39872 亿，较昨日放量 2881 亿，再创历史天量。 沪深 300 指数 1 月 14 日震荡整理。收盘 4741.93，环比下跌 19.1。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】1 月 14 日焦炭加权指数弱势震荡，收盘价 1740.1，环比下跌 22.2。 1 月 14 日焦煤加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 1200.2 元，环比下跌 17.4。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦厂库存大幅去库 6.04%。当前铁水复产进度较去年同期相对稳定，煤焦需求稳定好转并修复供需关 系，对价格形成了托底，但超预期修复概率较低。目前主要价格矛盾在于市场"产业调控"信息对情绪的提振与 短时间基本面数据难以立即兑现预期的问题。一方 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/01/15 10-09 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: The SSE, SZSE and BSE have raised the minimum margin ratio for margin tra ...