市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.81%，报2987元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.12%，报3156 元/吨。 短期市场主要矛盾在地缘层面，伊朗局势走向将直接影响原油地缘溢价，从而对包括燃料油在内的能化商品造成 扰动，需要密切关注。 燃料油日报 | 2026-02-27 高硫油市场结构保持坚挺，等待地缘形势明朗 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油市场结构虽然在春节假期期间出现一定调整，但支撑因素仍存。其中，下 游炼厂端需求表现良好，近期我国采购量明显增加，用于填补委内瑞拉重油的缺口。此外，近期运费攀升增加了 燃料油的跨区套利成本，对东西价差以及内外盘价差均存在提振。 低硫燃料油方面，目前市场矛盾相对有限。随着Dangote炼厂RFCC装置重启，科威特供应从高点回落，叠加船燃 加注需求从中东部分转移到亚太地区，近期低硫油基本面边际改善，春节假期期间外盘裂解价差、月差有所回升。 但在估值修复后，低硫燃料油对汽油的价差已大幅回落，这将抑制RFCC装置利润与开工率，从而降低对低硫油组 分的分流效应，抑制低硫燃料油裂解价差的上行空间。 策略 高硫方面：短期震荡偏强，关注伊朗局势走向 低硫方 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 27 日 铂：箱体震荡 钯：高频数据偏弱 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 589. 50 | | 8. 18% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 591. 60 | | 1. 30% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2285. 40 | | -0. 20% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2281. 40 | | 0. 16% | | | | 纪金期货2606 | 446. 55 | | 3. 84% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货纪金 | 438. 00 | | 1. 39% | | | | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1.817.00 | | 0. 61% | | | | 伦敦现货包金(前日) | 1.786.00 | | -0. 22% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前 ...

2026年02月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期回暖，矿价震荡上扬 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪扰动，价格宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：南非矿产税务信息扰动，资金低位拉涨 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：仓单扰动，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 动力煤：上游报价坚挺，短期煤价表现偏强 | 9 | | 原木：预期回暖，震荡偏强 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 27 日 来源：Mysteel，东财 Choice，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 （1）上海市住房城乡建设管理委、上海市房屋管理局等 5 部门 2 月 25 日联合发布《关于进一步优化 调整本市房地产政策的通知》，自 2026 年 2 月 26 日起施行。 （2）2 月 25 日讯，据了解华北部分钢企已接到 2026 年全国两会期间临时自主减排通知，要求企业在 3 月 4 ...

LPG：中东供应扰动，等待 CP 出台 丙烯：供需维持偏紧，现货横盘整理 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 2026 年 2 月 27 日 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG | 2603 2604 | 4,253 4,566 | -0.44% 1.24% | 4,249 4,543 | -0.09% -0.50% | PG | 2603 2604 | 12,053 122,296 | -10,798 46,789 | 2,173 83,265 | -6,043 1,089 | | 期货市场 | | 2605 | 4,492 | 1.08% | 4, ...

20260227申万期货品种策略日报-软商品 申银万国期货研究所 黄莹(执业编号：F3053602；投资咨询编号：Z0015364） huangying@sywgqh.com.cn | | | 白糖2609 | 白糖2605 | 白糖2603 | 11号糖2603 | 11号糖2607 | 11号糖2605 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 前日收盘价 | 5301 | 5285 | 5251 | 14.37 | 13.95 | 14.28 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 5267 | 5248 | 5244 | 14.56 | 13.96 | 14.28 | | | 涨跌 | 34 | 37 | 7 | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0 | | 期 | 涨跌幅% | 0.65 | 0.71 | 0.13 | -1.30 | -0.07 | 0.00 | | 货 | 持仓量 | 137901 | 462071 | 2012 | 33363 | 203988 | 137480 | | 市 | 成交量 | 51265 | 341075 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is about the rubber market on February 27, 2026, indicating that the rubber market is in a wide - range oscillation [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Market - The day - session closing price of the rubber main contract was 17,125 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan from the previous day; the night - session closing price was 17,080 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan. The trading volume was 269,900 lots, a decrease of 2,877 lots, and the open interest of the 05 contract was 172,951 lots, a decrease of 2,140 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity was 114,070 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members was 24,124 lots, an increase of 1,460 lots [2] Spread Data - The basis of spot - futures main contract was - 175, an increase of 15; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was - 1,225, an increase of 15; the monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was 135, an increase of 5 [2] Spot Market - The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,460 dollars/ton, an increase of 20 dollars; STR20 and SMR20 remained unchanged at 2,100 dollars/ton and 2,090 dollars/ton respectively; SIR20 was 2,015 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars. The prices of substitutes like Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene decreased. In the Qingdao market, the prices of some imported rubbers such as Thai standard, African 10 increased [2] Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2] Group 3: Industry News - This week, the natural rubber market saw a strong rise in prices due to the resonance of positive factors at home and abroad. The weekly average price of Shanghai full - latex was 16,738 yuan/ton, an increase of 578 yuan or 3.57%; the weekly average price of 20 - grade Thai standard in the Qingdao market was 2,043 dollars/ton, an increase of 73 dollars or 3.68%; the weekly average price of 20 - grade Thai mixed in the Qingdao market was 15,768 yuan/ton, an increase of 502 yuan or 3.29% [3][4]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-27 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 今 日 发 现 人民币汇率创三年新高，定价未现极端偏离 观点分享： 节后首周，人民币对美元汇率延续节前偏强走势。2 月 26 日，在岸人民币对美元汇率盘 中升破 6.84 关口，离岸人民币对美元盘中升破 6.83 关口，均刷新 2023 年 4 月以来高点。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛分析称，近期人民币对美元升值加速主要有以下支撑因素： 第一，1 月中旬以来美元指数冲高回落，延续了 2025 年开启的弱势调整；第二，当地时间 2 月 20 日，美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府大规模关税政策违法，美国被迫以 15%的进口附加 税替代对等关税和芬太尼关税，有助于降低对华关税水平，强化市场对中国出口韧性的预 期；第三，前期国内企业持有大量美元多头，近期人民币升值引发美元多头回撤，市场结汇 盘增加，反过来推动人民币进一步升值；第四，全国两会召开在即，市场对于利好政策有所 憧憬。另外，中美经贸关系回稳及我国整体外部环境改善，美联储独立性屡屡受到冲击等因 素，也是近段时间人民币对美元汇率走强的重要背景。对于后市，管涛 ...

Oil Market - On Thursday, WTI April contract closed down by $0.21 at $65.21 per barrel, a decrease of 0.32% [2] - Brent April contract closed down by $0.1 at $70.75 per barrel, a decrease of 0.14% [2] - The main contract SC2604 closed at 489.8 yuan per barrel, an increase of 3.6 yuan, or 0.74% [2] - Iran rejected transferring its enriched uranium abroad during indirect talks with the US in Geneva, insisting on its right to peaceful nuclear technology and demanding the lifting of US sanctions [2] - The US-Iran negotiations are seen as progressing positively, with further technical discussions planned for next week [2] - The cost of chartering supertankers from the Middle East to China has surpassed $200,000 per day for the first time since 2020 due to increased threats from the US against Iran [2] - The market remains volatile, primarily influenced by the US-Iran situation, with differing views on the potential for conflict [2] Fuel Oil Market - The main contract FU2605 closed down by 0.34% at 2943 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 fell by 1.18% to 3436 yuan per ton [18] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory increased by 113,000 barrels (0.5%) to 22.632 million barrels, while Fujairah's inventory decreased by 52,200 barrels (6.22%) [18] - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply has marginally improved, with Nigeria's low-sulfur shipments expected to be around 180,000 tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons month-on-month [18] - High-sulfur shipments from the Middle East are projected at 3 million tons, down 1.13 million tons month-on-month [18] Asphalt Market - The main contract BU2604 closed down by 0.5% at 3358 yuan per ton, with northern supply remaining low and southern refineries operating intermittently [19] - Domestic asphalt shipments from 54 companies totaled 20.9 million tons, a decrease of 18.7% week-on-week [19] - The capacity utilization rate for modified asphalt companies was 2%, down 4.4% month-on-month but up 1.5% year-on-year [19] Rubber Market - The main contract RU2605 closed down by 115 yuan per ton at 17125 yuan per ton, while NR and BR contracts also saw declines [20] - Vietnam's natural rubber exports in January reached 62,000 tons, a 5% increase year-on-year, but exports to China fell by 42% [20] - The operating rate for all-steel tires in Shandong increased by 18.78 percentage points week-on-week but decreased by 36.25 percentage points year-on-year [20] PX, PTA, and MEG Market - TA605 closed at 5260 yuan per ton, down 0.98%, while EG2605 closed at 3700 yuan per ton, down 1.25% [21] - PX futures closed at 7382 yuan per ton, down 0.67%, with spot prices at $931 per ton [21] - The overall operating rate for ethylene glycol in mainland China was 79.02%, with expectations for improved demand post-Lantern Festival [21] Methanol Market - The spot price in Taicang was 2197 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $267 to $271 per ton [23] - Supply is expected to decline due to gas restrictions in Iran, while demand is anticipated to recover post-holiday [23] Polyolefins Market - Mainstream prices for wire drawing in East China ranged from 6600 to 6700 yuan per ton, with various production margins reported [24] - Demand recovery is slow post-holiday, with market activity expected to remain low [24] PVC Market - Prices in East China remained stable, with slight increases in South China [25] - Supply is expected to increase slightly post-holiday, but demand is limited due to pre-holiday sales [25] Urea Market - Urea prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable at 1860 yuan per ton and 1830 yuan per ton, respectively [26] - Supply levels are high, with daily production at 21.80 million tons, while demand is supported by agricultural needs [26] Soda Ash Market - The soda ash market remained stable, with prices at 1151 yuan per ton [27] - Supply levels have slightly increased, but demand has not shown significant improvement [27] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market price averaged 1134 yuan per ton, with a slight increase [28] - Supply levels are stable, but demand recovery is slow, with significant inventory accumulation [28]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 昨日螺纹盘面小幅回落，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3063元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格下跌13元/ 吨，跌幅为0.42%，持仓减少3.63万手。现货价格基本持平，唐山地区普方坯出厂价格2910元/吨，杭州 市场中天螺纹价格3170元/吨。据我的钢铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回落5.28万吨至165.1万吨，农 历同比减少18.7万吨；社库环比回升72.79万吨至567.76万吨，农历同比增加82.39万吨；厂库环比回升 11.77万吨至232.84万吨，农历同比增加12.83万吨；螺纹表需环比回升39.38万吨至80.54万吨，农历同比 减少51.01万吨。螺纹产量有所回落，库存继续大幅累积，表需回升，数据表现基本符合预期。目前螺 纹库存农历同比增加95.22万吨，热卷库存农历同比增加37.83万吨，库存仍面临较大的消化压力。目前 螺纹现货供需仍有压力，不过宏观及产业政策层面有一定利好支撑。预计短期螺纹盘面或将维持弱势整 理运行。 铁矿石： （柳浠，从业资 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 纯碱当日行情： 2 月 26 日，纯碱主力合约 SA605 震荡运行，收于 1191 元/吨，较前一日上涨 6 元 /吨，涨幅为 0.50%，日内减仓 25476 ...