法国总统马克龙：我们必须重新思考我们的经济基本面。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. Policy expectations support the stock index. Once there is a clear signal of policy benefits, the stock index may break through and rise [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view reference is oscillating strongly, with the core logic being the increasing expectation of the policy side [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The reference view is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that the stock index rose comprehensively yesterday. The stock market trading volume was 1364.4 billion yuan, 171.4 billion yuan more than the previous day. This was due to the stable external news during the holiday, the return of funds to the stock market, the good high - frequency data of travel during the holiday, the high possibility of macro - economic recovery, the continuous allocation of A - shares by funds like Central Huijin, the weakening of the manufacturing PMI in April indicating increasing policy measures for stable growth, and the stock index being at the position of the gap in early April, which will oscillate around the current point. Policy expectations support the stock index, and it will be oscillating strongly in the short term [5]

Group 1: Asset Performance Post Tariff Implementation - Since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, 2025, global risk assets have shown a "V"-shaped recovery, with U.S. and European stock markets outperforming Chinese equity assets and demand-side commodities[1] - As of May 2, 2025, U.S. stock indices (e.g., NASDAQ, S&P 500) have recovered above their April 2 closing prices, while Chinese assets (e.g., Hang Seng Index, CSI 800) and commodities like copper and oil remain below their April 2 levels[1] - The disparity in asset performance is attributed to different driving factors and recovery rhythms, with demand-related commodities reflecting weaker demand expectations[1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Outlook - Recent positive non-farm payroll data has alleviated immediate recession concerns, but potential market volatility remains due to ongoing trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[2] - The U.S. economy's first-quarter GDP growth was reported at -0.30%, slightly below expectations, while April's ADP employment growth was only 62,000, compared to the expected 115,000[2] - Structural issues in the U.S. labor market show that manufacturing sector job growth has been negative since October 2023, indicating a shift towards service-oriented job creation[2] Group 3: Domestic Economic Adjustments - The April PMI data indicates that the impact of tariffs on China's exports is becoming evident, with new export orders declining significantly[3] - Recent trade negotiations between China and the U.S. have begun to show signs of engagement, suggesting that policy responses may become clearer as talks progress[3] - The offshore RMB appreciated significantly on May 2, 2025, indicating a positive correlation between Chinese equity assets and the currency, suggesting a potential market revaluation[3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Chinese assets are considered to have better value compared to other markets, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand, such as consumer goods and services[4] - The report recommends investing in resource products (copper, aluminum, gold) and capital goods (engineering machinery, steel) as global economic conditions evolve[4] - Financial sectors with low valuations (banks, insurance) are also highlighted as potential safe havens against external shocks[4]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows resilience with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 in April, surpassing Bloomberg's median forecast of 135,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remains steady at 4.2%, while labor force participation rose to 62.6% [1] - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1, which is weaker than economists' predictions, but the impact of tariffs has distorted data, leading to a significant increase in imports by 41% [2][3] Group 2 - The trade war has led companies to halt investment plans, potentially reducing new job opportunities and affecting consumer confidence [2] - The Trump administration's tariffs are expected to create inflationary pressures, making it crucial for bilateral negotiations to reach agreements quickly [2] - The Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in Q1, outperforming analyst expectations, but the trade war has negatively impacted business and consumer confidence in Europe [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with Chairman Powell likely to emphasize that the rate path depends on future economic conditions [4] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of rate cuts in May, with a greater chance of cuts in June and July [3][4] - The Fed is concerned about policy uncertainty, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on prices, which may delay any rate adjustments until September [4]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.04.30」 贵金属市场周报 市场情绪持续修复，短期回调压力仍存 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：本周贵金属市场呈高位震荡回调态势，伴随美国政府就关税问题的态度反转并释 放中美贸易缓和信号，市场风险偏好边际修复，金价回调压力显现。地缘方面，尽管俄乌局 势仍有反复，但普京近期释放和谈信号缓解市场紧张情绪。经济数据方面，美国达拉斯联储 商业活动指数创下疫情以来新低，4月消费者信心连续第五个月下滑，职位空缺环比走弱， 显示经济基本面承压，强化市场对年中降息的押注。尽管美联储5月按兵不动已成市场共识， 但年中降息预期有所升温，推动美债收益率下行。关税方面，特朗普近日表达放宽对华关税 的意愿，而中方亦宣布对部分美国产品实施关税豁免。此外，特朗普政府正寻求通过取降低 汽车零部件进口关税，以减少汽车关税对美国市场的影响，整体来看关税风险区域下行，但 不确定性犹存。资金面来看，尽管CFTC黄金净多头寸回落至14个月新低，显示短线多头情绪 有所降温，但全球央行购金趋势延续。白银则在宏观衰退预期边际缓解与工业需求预期改善 的双重驱动下表现相对坚挺，金银比维持在历史高位水平， ...

Group 1 - The international gold price closed at $3343.74 per ounce on April 28, with an increase of $25.12 or 0.76% [1] - The highest and lowest prices during the day were $3352.86 and $3267.01 per ounce, respectively [1] - As of April 28, the gold ETF holdings remained stable at 946.27 tons compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Current market sentiment is influenced by trade tensions, economic recession fears, and monetary policy uncertainties, which could impact gold demand [2][3] - Upcoming economic data releases, including GDP figures and corporate earnings, are expected to shift market focus back to fundamentals [2] - The U.S. labor market report on Friday is anticipated to be a potential catalyst for market movements, particularly for the dollar index and gold prices [3] Group 3 - Recent gold price fluctuations indicate a bullish outlook, with potential for prices to challenge the $3500 per ounce mark [4] - The support levels established by previous lows and moving averages suggest a favorable environment for bullish positions in gold [4]

第六， 本轮货币政策仍存在宽松空间，最快二季度可能落地降准。一则政府工作报告、一季度货币政策委员 会例会仍强调适时降准降息；二则外需正继续受全球贸易环境影响，需政策更积极对冲扩内需，经验上每一轮 出口下行周期均对应总量宽松周期。 2021 年以来降准间隔时点大约在 3-8 个月，上一轮降准在 2024 年 9 月末，以 3-8 月外推，今年二季度可能会有一轮降准。但需注意的是，降准主要目的是为银行补充中长期 流动性，缓解银行扩表支持实体经济的流动性约束，打开实体融资成本下降空间，进而稳定信用环境，不一定 会带来狭义流动性中枢的变化。事实上， 2021 年以来的降准，大部分都未改变 DR007 中枢。对于利率而 言，可能更重要的是降息（预期），而这一点在内外均衡、银行息差等约束下，时间窗口并不明朗。 第七， 然后是经济基本面。在前期报告《修复结构性失衡》中，我们曾介绍了一个利率定价框架：利率本质 上是高融资需求部门的价格，建筑业景气度在很大程度上决定利率走势。 2016 年四季度、 2020 年二季度 利率趋势反转，除名义增长确认底部外，更重要的是还伴随着建筑业景气度、实体融资需求的修复。本轮建筑 业在去年四季 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the options market is on economic data releases rather than the tariff announcement scheduled for April 2, with significant implied volatility spikes noted on March 31 and April 4 [1][3] - March 31 corresponds to the first trading day after the release of the February core PCE price index, while April 4 aligns with the release of the March non-farm payroll report, indicating investor concerns about inflation and employment [3][4] - Despite a 10% decline in the S&P 500 index, volatility indicators remain calm, suggesting that some investors have reduced their positions and shifted focus to other regions, decreasing the need for hedging against further declines [4][5] Group 2 - The lack of volatility peaks indicates that the real risk may lie in economic fundamentals rather than policy announcements, as traders await certainty from upcoming economic data [4][5] - Many investors prioritize economic impacts over uncertainty, reflecting a significant focus on the implications of economic data releases [5] - The negative economic impact of tariff uncertainty may be more profound than previously anticipated, with potential increases in consumer prices and reduced real wages highlighted by Fitch's chief economist [5]

Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate is expected to show a trend of gradual stabilization amidst fluctuations by 2025, influenced by both external and internal factors [1] External Factors - Increased uncertainty in the global economic environment, particularly due to the U.S. government's intensified measures against China, is likely to lead to greater volatility in the RMB exchange rate [1] - Recent market concerns regarding Trump's tariff threats have diminished, contributing to a weaker U.S. dollar index and declining U.S. Treasury yields, which may help stabilize the RMB [1] Internal Factors - Domestic issues such as insufficient demand and economic structural adjustments are also impacting the stability of the RMB exchange rate [1] - Continuous policy efforts are expected to improve the economic fundamentals in China, providing strong support for the RMB exchange rate [1] - Specific measures include the implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, and a fiscal deficit target of around 4% to boost consumption and investment efficiency [1] Central Bank Actions - In extraordinary circumstances, the central bank may take various measures, such as moderate intervention in the foreign exchange market and adjustments to foreign exchange reserves, to ensure the exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable equilibrium level [1]