Group 1 - The Tianhong Credit Bond ETF (159398) experienced a slight increase of 0.03% as of May 26, with a net inflow of over 900 million yuan in the past week [1] - The latest circulating scale of the Tianhong Credit Bond ETF reached a historical high of 5.267 billion yuan [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 382 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4% on May 26, with a net injection of 247 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The liquidity in the market remains stable, supported by the central bank's operations, despite seasonal pressures and the need for banks to manage liabilities [2] - Credit bonds are expected to perform strongly, with credit spreads narrowing across all maturities, indicating a potential trend of "deposit migration" [2] - The strategy suggests focusing on short to medium-term credit opportunities, as the market lacks a clear mainline direction [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: Extreme conservative House members threaten to block Trump's tax - cut bill, and the White House warns that killing the bill would be an "ultimate betrayal". The EU says the US negotiation proposal is unrealistic and has a new plan. The US states that the Treasury Secretary and the Japanese Finance Minister did not discuss exchange - rate levels at the G7 meeting. Shanghai releases a special action plan to boost consumption. The domestic market rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the stock index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The suppression of bonds by the equity market is limited. Treasury bond futures show strong buying support near the technical support level in the afternoon. The market is looking for cost - effectiveness, and the allocation funds favor long - term local bonds in central regions with sufficient spread protection. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of yields is relatively limited under the background that the logic of loose liquidity remains and the signal of fundamental recovery needs to be verified. However, the short - term market lacks clear catalysts and the trend is in a stalemate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.43%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.46%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 0.13%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 fell 0.18% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that it may fluctuate and there is an adjustment risk [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.27%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating operation and may rebound [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Bullish in the short term [4]. Futures Data - On May 21, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various stock index and treasury bond futures contracts are provided in a table [12].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the central bank's recent monetary policy adjustments, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, are expected to lead to a decline in market interest rates in May [5][93]. - In April, the domestic money market continued to show signs of easing, with average repo rates in the interbank and exchange markets generally declining [4][11]. - The average rates for R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 in April decreased by 15 basis points, 24 basis points, 19 basis points, and 22 basis points respectively, indicating a trend of lower short-term borrowing costs [15][24]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the overnight transaction volumes in both the interbank and exchange markets increased in April, although their respective market shares decreased [43][48]. - The estimated excess reserve ratio for April and May is projected to be around 1.0%, reflecting a slight increase in liquidity due to the central bank's actions [51][87]. - The report notes that the central bank's net liquidity injection in April amounted to 4.208 billion yuan, alongside a significant increase in fiscal deposits [51][70]. Group 3 - The report tracks key overseas monetary market indicators, noting that the Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in May, leading to stable short-term U.S. Treasury rates [8][93]. - The European Central Bank also reduced key rates by 25 basis points in April, contributing to a broader trend of easing monetary conditions in major economies [8][93]. - The report emphasizes that the ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have reduced export pressures, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [76][93].

新华财经北京5月12日电（高二山）人民银行12日开展430亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%；鉴于当日无逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放430亿 元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）短期品种再度全线下行，跌幅有所收窄。具体来看，隔夜Shibor下跌1.60BP，报1.4060%；7天Shibor下跌0.60BP，报 1.4900%；14天Shibor下跌0.70BP，报1.5560%。 | | | | 2025-05-13 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | � | O/N | 1.4060 | 1.60 | | ↑ | 1W | 1.4900 | 0.60 | | ゃ | 2W | 1.5560 | 0.70 | | ゃ | 1M | 1.6470 | 1.40 | | 1 | 3M | 1.6620 | 1.00 | | ↑ | 6M | 1.6720 | 1.30 | | 企 | 9M | 1.6760 | 1.00 | | � | 1Y | 1.6840 | 1.10 | 上海银行间同业拆放利率 ...

节后首个工作日，公开市场迎来大规模的逆回购到期。根据人民银行官网，5月6日，人民银行开展4050亿元逆回购操作，操作利率1.5%，仍与此前保持一 致。由此计算，公开市场单日实现净回笼6820亿元。 值得一提的是，包括当日到期逆回购在内，本周（5月6日—9日）公开市场将迎来逾1.6万亿元规模的逆回购到期，单周到期规模升至历史高位。市场流动性 的变化带动了资金面变化，4月末资金价格小幅抬升后，面对升温的"适时降准降息"需求，业内普遍认为，5月资金利率有望跟进下调，中短端国债收益率先 受益于资金宽松而下行。 | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | ...

港股资金面维持宽松。 美元走弱、人民币走强，美元兑换港元汇率触及强方保证的7.75，这是2020年以来的首次。业内人士认 为，资金涌入香港的情况持续，市场资金面比较宽松，预计港股有望延续上涨势头。 5月6日，香港金融管理局（以下简称"金管局"）在市场卖出605.43亿港元。此前，金管局已在5月3日、 5日，分别向市场注资465.39亿港元和95.32亿港元，累计注资达1166.14亿港元。 金管局发言人表示，近期港元偏强主要由于股票投资相关的港元需求增加，支持港元汇价。金管局将继 续密切留意市场动态，确保港元市场有序运作。银行体系总结余将在5月7日增至913.09亿港元。 6日当天，恒生指数继续上涨，一度触及22647的高点。 港股100研究中心顾问余丰慧向第一财经分析，香港金管局近期买入美元并释放港元流动性，主要目的 是维持港元汇率稳定。对于港股而言，这种操作通常意味着市场资金面宽松，因为更多的港元被注入市 场，有助于提升股市的流动性和投资者情绪。当前金管局的干预也反映出外资对港股市场的信心增强， 这从长期来看对港股是有利的。 博大资本行政总裁温天纳认为，美元弱势比较明显，资金流向其他货币，而港元又触及强方 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 半数固收卖方看多债市 ——债市情绪面周报（4 月第 4 周） 报告日期： 2025-04-28 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：持券待涨，关注 30Y 利差压缩机会 近期利率持续横盘，投资者普遍看多债市但也谨慎追多。市场即将迎来 4 月经济基本面的确认，关税反复难空债市，持券过节或是较优策略，进入 5 月 后财政供给高峰与宽货币对冲，缴税小月+央行边际转松的态度可能使得资金 利率中枢出现下移，此前负 Carry 现象已经有所缓解。此外也可以适当把握 30Y-10Y 利差走扩的机会，拉长久期，静待利率出现下行机会。 ⚫ 卖方观点：维持乐观，待货币政策落地、基本面验证打开下行空间 截至 4 月 28 日，本 ...

Liquidity Overview - In the first week of April, liquidity has shown a self-driven easing trend, with DR007 and R007 weekly averages down by 7bp and 18bp respectively, and overnight rates gradually falling to 1.6%[1] - The banking system's net lending remained high, with daily net lending exceeding 30,000 billion CNY from March 31 to April 3, peaking at 34,700 billion CNY on the cross-quarter day[1][12] Market Expectations - Looking ahead to the week of April 7-11, liquidity is expected to remain loose due to the absence of tax payments and a significant drop in government bond net payments to -490.6 billion CNY, the lowest level since 2023[2][16] - The tax filing deadline has been postponed to April 18, which will limit the impact of tax-related liquidity fluctuations during this week[2][16] Open Market Operations - From April 7-11, the central bank's reverse repos will mature at 763.4 billion CNY, with a total of 9,134 billion CNY in open market operations due[3][38] - The central bank net withdrew 501.9 billion CNY from March 31 to April 3, with reverse repos totaling 684.9 billion CNY and maturing repos at 1,186.8 billion CNY[3][37] Bill Market Trends - As of April 3, the 1M discount bill rate dropped significantly from 2.00% to 1.42%, while the 3M rate fell by 65bp to 1.05%[4][41] - Major banks net purchased 118.7 billion CNY in bills, with a cumulative net purchase of 127 billion CNY from April 1-3[4][41] Government Bond Activity - The net payment for government bonds fell sharply to -490.6 billion CNY for the week of April 7-11, down from 546.1 billion CNY the previous week[5][46] - The planned issuance for government bonds during this period is set at 201.9 billion CNY, all of which are local bonds[5][46] Interbank Certificate of Deposit - The pressure from maturing interbank certificates of deposit increased, with 5,497 billion CNY maturing from April 7-11, a significant rise from 1,011 billion CNY the previous week[6][51] - The weighted average issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit decreased to 1.89%, down 4bp from the previous week[6][51]

Group 1: Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 229.9 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.50%, with a net withdrawal of 225.5 billion yuan on that day [1][3] - Despite the central bank's continuous net withdrawal, the interbank market remained loose at the beginning of the month, with the overnight repo weighted average rate falling about 9 basis points to below 1.8% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the US is 4.41% [4] Group 2: Interest Rates and Bonds - The one-year interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) traded around 1.86%, down from approximately 1.90% the previous day [6] - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw collective yield declines, with the 1-year government bond yield at 1.5875%, down 0.25 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 1.9940%, down 3.60 basis points [8] - Government bond futures closed collectively higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.86% [11] Group 3: Policy and Development - The State Council issued opinions on improving price governance mechanisms, emphasizing the need for macroeconomic policy coordination to enhance price level control effectiveness [12] - A meeting was held in Chongqing to discuss the high-quality development of the bond market, aiming to support local enterprises in issuing various innovative bonds [13] Group 4: Global Macro Trends - Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for the 10-year Japanese government bond yield at the end of 2025 from 1.60% to 1.50%, reflecting increased risks of a US economic recession [15] Group 5: Bond Market Events - Fuzhou City is promoting policy guarantee companies to provide credit enhancement for private enterprises issuing bonds [17] - The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps plans to issue 12.80922 billion yuan in local bonds in the second quarter [17] - The 10-year benchmark government bond yield in India has fallen to its lowest level since January 7, 2022 [17]

很多时候不是我们的原则策略有问题，而是在执行时出问题。在入场条件尚未完全成熟时，就迫不及待地、害怕错过地冲动入场，在离场时，尚未等到卖 出条件的成立，就迫不及待地落袋为安，亦或是止损离场条件已经成立，但就是死扛不走。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250402— 川普关税 吓松国内资金（+资金面明显转松+特朗普关税将至宽松预期升温=中下)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率明显下行。 央行公开市场开展2299亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有4554亿元逆回购到期，净回笼2255亿元。 资金面明显转松，资金价格回落，DR001下行至1.74%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 04. 02) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.79 | 13 | | ...