Economic Overview - Zhuhai's economy showed overall stability from January to April, with industrial, consumption, import-export, and fiscal indicators experiencing steady growth, while investment indicators saw a significant decline [1] Industrial Production - From January to April, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in Zhuhai increased by 6.6% year-on-year, with the "4+3" pillar industries growing by 6.9% [1] - Specific sectors such as new energy (8.2%), integrated circuits (2.1%), new generation information technology (12.7%), smart home appliances (1.1%), fine chemicals (9.0%), and high-end equipment manufacturing (42.2%) reported varied growth rates [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Zhuhai saw a significant year-on-year decline of 41.2% from January to April, with industrial technological transformation investment down by 1.2%, real estate development investment down by 39.2%, and infrastructure investment down by 42.8% [1] Consumption Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Zhuhai reached 31.26 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [1] - Within consumption types, catering revenue for above-designated size enterprises decreased by 0.3%, while retail sales of goods increased by 12.0% [1] Foreign Trade - Zhuhai's foreign trade import-export total reached 111.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.2% [1] - Exports totaled 75.77 billion yuan, growing by 12.3%, while imports amounted to 35.94 billion yuan, increasing by 25.4% [1] Service Industry - From January to March, the revenue of large-scale service enterprises in Zhuhai reached 40.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5% [2] - Key growth sectors included information transmission, software, and IT services (22.1%), leasing and business services (11.2%), and water, environment, and public facilities management (13.0%) [2] Fiscal and Financial Performance - From January to April, Zhuhai's general public budget revenue was 16.68 billion yuan, up by 3.9% year-on-year, while public budget expenditure was 20.47 billion yuan, increasing by 1.0% [2] - By the end of April, the balance of deposits and loans in Zhuhai's financial institutions grew by 5.9% and 3.5% year-on-year, respectively [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil futures are expected to continue their downward trend, with a long - term bearish view. The first target for the decline is around 3,500 ringgit. In the domestic market, palm oil has fallen below 8,000 yuan and may seek support in the 7,900 - 8,000 yuan range. - For soybeans, concerns about the US renewable diesel quota policy (RVO) have led to a market decline. If there is no new news on the biodiesel policy, the July contract will fluctuate around the daily mid - track at 48.9 cents, and may fall to 46 cents later. In the domestic market, soybean oil supply is increasing, and the spot basis price is expected to decline [1]. Sugar Industry - Although the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of April, the 25/26 sugar - cane season still has a promising harvest. Short - term raw sugar is expected to oscillate between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar supply is abundant, and sales are strong. The market focus is on future import rhythms, and sugar prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Cotton Industry - Macro - level conditions have marginally improved, but US tariffs on Chinese cotton products remain high, which is unfavorable to domestic export - oriented enterprises. The industry's improvement is not obvious, and short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate after rising, and further increase requires downstream improvement [5]. Egg Industry - The national egg supply is sufficient, which has a negative impact on egg prices. Demand may first decrease and then increase, and egg prices are expected to first fall and then rise slightly next week [8]. Meal Industry - Spring sowing of US soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian soybean supply pressure is being realized. In the domestic market, soybean arrivals are increasing, oil mill operations are rising, but demand is not boosted, and the basis is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2,900 [10]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is stable, and the supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The fat - to - standard price difference is narrowing, and the pressure on fat pigs is increasing. There may be an increase in the second - fattening pig supply. The demand is weak, and pig prices are expected to oscillate. The 09 contract is below 14,000, and the market is expected to neither decline sharply nor rise strongly [13][14]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is stable, with the base grain sold out and the right of grain ownership transferred to traders. The price is stable in the northeast and may be slightly adjusted down in the north - central region. In the long term, the supply will tighten, and the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On May 16, the price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day; the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,450 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean oil were 12,370, up 13.80%; palm oil warehouse receipts were 1,500, up 13.80%; rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,725 [1]. Sugar Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the sugar 2601 contract was 5,723 yuan/ton, down 0.47%; the sugar 2509 contract was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The spot price in Nanning was 6,145 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [3]. - **Industry Data**: National sugar production reached 11.1072 million tons, an increase of 11.63%; sales were 7.2446 million tons, an increase of 26.07%. The national sugar sales rate was 65.22%, an increase of 12.97% [3]. Cotton Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the cotton 2509 contract was 13,390 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the cotton 2601 contract was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,479 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [5]. - **Industry Data**: Commercial inventory decreased by 8.0% to 415.26 tons, and the textile industry's inventory decreased by 4.4% year - on - year [5]. Egg Industry - **Prices**: On May 19, the egg 09 contract was 3,788 yuan/500KG, down 0.18%; the egg 06 contract was 2,894 yuan/500KG, up 0.31%. The egg - producing area price was 3.28 yuan/jin, down 0.07% [8]. - **Related Data**: The price of laying - hen chicks was 4.15 yuan per bird, down 1.19%; the price of culled hens was 5.22 yuan/jin, down 0.57% [8]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: On May 19, the price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3,020 yuan/ton, down 0.98%; the price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean meal were 36,286, up 14.2%; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 31,068, down 0.67%; soybean warehouse receipts were 29,758, down 1.13% [10]. Pig Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the pig 2507 contract was 13,405 yuan/ton, down 0.67%; the pig 2509 contract was 13,660 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. The spot price in Henan was 14,980 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Industry Data**: The sample - point slaughter rate decreased by 0.32% to 146,383 heads; the self - breeding profit per pig decreased by 4.35% to 81 yuan; the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.66% to 4,039 million heads [13]. Corn Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the corn 2507 contract was 2,335 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the corn starch 2507 contract was 2,685 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The Jinzhou Port flat - hold price of corn was 2,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Changchun spot price of corn starch was 2,670 yuan/ton, unchanged [16]. - **Industry Data**: The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 6.46% to 884; the corn starch warehouse receipts increased by 24.58% to 26,620 [16].

编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.13） 宏观及策略研究 输入性因素拖累明显——2025 年 4 月物价数据点评 进出口增速均超预期——2025 年 4 月进出口数据点评 基金研究 国防军工领涨行业 ，公募高质量发展行动方案落地——公募基金周报 晨会纪要（2025/05/13） 输入性因素拖累明显——2025 年 4 月物价数据点评 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 1、CPI：食品和出行价格上行 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/05/13） 宏观及策略研究 2025 年 4 月 CPI 同比降幅持平，环比由降转涨。CPI 环比走高主要受食品价格和出行服务价格支撑，其中， 食品价格上行主要与牛肉进口量减少、部分地区 ...

Macro Economic Analysis - The Chinese economy showed better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, indicating a strong start to the year [1] - Policy measures are supporting commodity inflation, as reflected in the March price data [1] Trade Data Insights - The "export rush" is nearing its end, as indicated by the March import and export data [2] - The U.S. CPI inflation data for March reflects a brief period of calm in the overseas macroeconomic environment [2] Capital Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a strong and volatile phase, suggesting opportunities for long-term bond fund investments [3] - U.S. tech stocks have faced significant setbacks, raising questions about the market's bottom [3] - Tariff pressures are causing dramatic fluctuations in both stock and bond markets [3] Industry Analysis - The pharmaceutical industry is accelerating its digital transformation, with AI technology playing a crucial role in this new journey [5] - Positive policy measures are contributing to stability in the A-share market [5] - Tariff expectations are being driven by policy responses, highlighting the need to monitor these developments [5] - Market volatility continues as the impact of tariffs temporarily eases [5] Weekly Outlook - Recent tariff measures have exceeded expectations, leading to a significant rise in risk-averse sentiment [6]

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate increased to 73.01%, up 0.39% from the previous week[7] - The high furnace operating rate rose to 83.3%, a slight increase of 0.15%[7] - The PTA operating rate decreased to 77.57%, down 2.91% from the previous week[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue reached 46,200,000 CNY, a significant increase of 125.1% compared to the previous week[7] - Daily average retail sales of passenger cars decreased to 67,404.15 units, down 3.0% from the previous week[7] - Daily average wholesale sales of passenger cars fell to 81,192.05 units, a decline of 3.1%[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities dropped to 146.05 million square meters, down 12.65% from the previous week[7] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities decreased to 4.24%, down 8.34% from the previous week[7] - Excavator sales increased to 19,517 units, a rise of 67.7% compared to the previous month[7] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose to 1,394.68, an increase of 0.14%[8] - The average wholesale price of pork was 20.79 CNY/kg, down 0.19% from the previous week[8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for agricultural products showed a decline, indicating weak price performance[8] Transportation - The Beijing subway passenger volume decreased to 878.62 million trips, down 12.5% from the previous week[8] - The number of domestic flights increased to 12,526.57, up 0.45% from the previous week[8] - The China Road Logistics Price Index remained stable at 1,048.96, a slight increase of 0.36%[8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The production sector shows an overall improvement compared to the same period last year, with various operational rates indicating a positive trend [11]. - The consumption sector is experiencing a seasonal decline in box office revenues post-Spring Festival, while passenger car sales remain at a high level [17]. - The real estate and infrastructure sector is witnessing a high level of second-hand housing sales, indicating strong market activity [20]. - Recent data shows a significant recovery in infrastructure-related high-frequency data following the resumption of work after the holiday [22]. - The import and export sector indicates a divergence between domestic and international freight rates [26]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a weakening trend in agricultural and pork prices, while Producer Price Index (PPI) reflects a rebound in domestic and international commodity prices [30][32]. - The transportation sector is experiencing a seasonal increase in subway ridership in major cities post-holiday, while flight operations show a seasonal decline [36][38]. Summary by Sections Production - The operational rates for various sectors, including steel and tire production, are showing positive trends compared to previous periods [11][13]. Consumption - The box office revenue has decreased significantly, with a drop of 33.5 million yuan, while passenger car sales remain robust [17]. Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area for new homes in 30 major cities increased to 167.74 million square meters, up from 149.91 million square meters, reflecting a 17.83% increase [20]. - The land premium rate in 100 major cities rose to 22.59%, up from 8.75%, indicating increased competition for land [22]. Import and Export - The Shanghai export container freight index decreased to 1,319.34, down from 1,436.30, while the Baltic Dry Index increased to 1,669.00, up from 1,400.00 [26]. Price Inflation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.79 yuan per kilogram, slightly down from 20.81 yuan, while the agricultural product wholesale price index shows minimal change [30]. Transportation - Subway ridership in Beijing decreased to 755.48 million trips, while Guangzhou saw an increase to 941.91 million trips, indicating varied recovery rates across cities [36][38].