如果美国通胀数据迟迟不上升，那么"最尴尬的人"，或许就是正在等待关税下通胀复燃信号的 鲍威尔，以及那些长期以来一直警告关税将推高美国通胀的经济学家…… 而 今晚，即将公布的美国6月CPI报告，可能就将成为一场关键的"正名之战"…… 目前，在连续四个月高估CPI读数后，不少华尔街机构再度在今晚关键的CPI押注中选择了"押 大" ——预计美国6月CPI数据将出现较高的增速。一些业内人士表示，若美国6月份CPI最终 出现明显上涨，将是美国关税上调正在推高通胀的第一个真正迹象。 事实上，前几个月不温不火的美国通胀数据表现，其实已经让美联储处于了一个较为尴尬的境 地——美联储官员们一直在为年内迄今按兵不动的利率政策进行辩护，他们给出的最常见理由 就是预期关税将推高通胀，但这一效应至今仍始终未见踪影。 而如果今晚的通胀数据表现依然温和——涨幅低于预期，那么几乎可以肯定会引发美国特朗普 再次表达强烈不满。他近来已多次呼吁美联储降息，并屡屡把矛头直接对准美联储主席鲍威尔 本人。 很有意思的是，由于特朗普关税政策带来的一系列不确定性因素，美联储自身其实也没法能精 准把控通胀何时会复燃以及具体的火热程度。在本月初出席欧洲央行年度 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non-US regions shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weakening actual demand", and the spot contradiction is gradually resolved. The copper price may return to macro trading in the next stage, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt the copper price. The main contract should focus on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported by supply tightness expectations, but the high - capacity operation and market surplus situation remain. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 2,950 - 3,250 this week. For aluminum, the current price is high, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro uncertainties, the price of the main contract is expected to face pressure in the short term, with a reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 this week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The subsequent weak demand will continue to suppress price increases. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract operating between 19,400 - 20,200 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to remain loose, but the increase in domestic mine production in June fell short of expectations, providing price support. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, while the demand has weakened marginally. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is maintained, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support for refined nickel has loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upside of prices. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. In the short term, the macro situation is volatile. It is recommended to hold existing short positions from previous highs and pay attention to US tariff changes [14]. Stainless Steel - There are macro uncertainties, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The low - level ferronickel price weakens cost support, the supply - side production cuts fall short of expectations, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals still face pressure, and the surplus may increase. The disk is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The short - term disk is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract reference range of 63,000 - 68,000, but there is still downward pressure in the medium term [20]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped to 78,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 116.4 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum dropped to 20,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 70 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 20,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped to 22,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11%. The import profit and loss improved by 200.42 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel dropped to 121,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin dropped to 266,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The import profit and loss decreased by 605.76 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased to 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39%. The spot - futures price difference increased by 45 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased to 64,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41%. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) decreased by 1,300 yuan/ton [20]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30%. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22%. In May, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 250,500 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, an increase of 1.49%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 255,000 tons, a decrease of 2.30%. In May, the un - wrought aluminum alloy ingot import volume was 97,000 tons, an increase of 11.75% [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50%. In May, the refined zinc import volume was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 5.36% [8]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% [11]. - **Tin**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April (43 companies), the 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83%. In May, the stainless steel import volume was 125,100 tons, a decrease of 12.00% [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34%. The lithium carbonate demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15%. In May, the lithium carbonate import volume was 21,146 tons, a decrease of 25.37% [20]. Spread - **Copper**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 90 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 70 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton [11]. - **Tin**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 340 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 150 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2508 - 2509 spread remained unchanged, and the 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 120 yuan/ton [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the steel industry is experiencing manageable inventory pressure, indicating limited supply-demand conflicts. The recovery in raw material prices provides support for prices, and the "anti-involution" sentiment boosts market confidence, leading to expectations of a strong fluctuation in steel prices in the short term [3][16]. - For copper, tight supply and low inventory are supporting prices, but U.S. tariff policies increase trade uncertainty, which may put pressure on copper prices in the short term [3][39]. - The aluminum market faces macro uncertainties, but low domestic inventory supports prices. However, weak downstream demand during the off-season is expected to lead to price fluctuations [3][46]. - Gold prices are supported by tariff and trade uncertainties, with future attention needed on overseas economic data and geopolitical situations [3][4][49]. - The lithium market is under pressure from potential oversupply, despite the "anti-involution" sentiment providing some support for prices [3][52]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The report notes that the steel industry is facing limited supply-demand conflicts, with inventory pressure being manageable. The raw material price recovery is expected to support prices, and the "anti-involution" sentiment is boosting market confidence, leading to expectations of strong fluctuations in steel prices [3][16]. - As of July 11, the total steel inventory was 13.33 million tons, down 0.03% from the previous week and down 23.26% year-on-year [25]. - The average price index for steel on July 11 was 3,428.49 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.14% increase from the previous week [37]. Copper Industry - The report indicates that the copper market is experiencing tight supply and low inventory, which supports prices. However, the U.S. tariff policy adds trade uncertainty, potentially putting pressure on copper prices in the short term [3][39]. - On July 11, the LME copper price was 9,600 USD/ton, down 3.34% from the previous week [44]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum market is characterized by macro uncertainties, but low domestic inventory is providing price support. The report anticipates price fluctuations due to weak downstream demand during the off-season [3][46]. - On July 11, the LME aluminum price was 2,600 USD/ton, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [47]. Precious Metals - The report highlights that gold prices are supported by tariff and trade uncertainties, with future attention needed on overseas economic data and geopolitical situations [3][4][49]. - On July 11, the COMEX gold price was 3,370.30 USD/ounce, showing a 1.03% increase from the previous week [49]. Rare Earth and Minor Metals - The report notes that rare earth prices are currently at a cyclical low, with domestic policies promoting supply optimization. The demand from humanoid robots and new energy sectors provides new momentum for the industry [4][63]. - On July 11, the price of light rare earth oxide neodymium was 456,000 CNY/ton, up 2.24% from the previous week [63].

Export Data - In June 2025, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up from 4.8% in May, surpassing market expectations of 5.0%[2] - The trade surplus reached $114.77 billion, compared to $103.22 billion in the previous month[2] Import Data - Imports rose by 1.1% year-on-year in June, recovering from a decline of 3.4% in May, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%[2] - The increase in imports was supported by a low base effect and resilient export performance, with the import volume showing significant growth[4] Export Drivers - The recovery in export growth was partly due to the delayed impact of the US-China tariff suspension, with the year-on-year decline in exports to the US narrowing by 18.4 percentage points to -16.1%[3] - Demand for re-export from ASEAN countries continued to rise, although future costs may increase due to the US-Vietnam tariff agreement[3] Import Trends - Strong demand for high-end manufacturing imports, such as semiconductors and integrated circuits, contributed approximately 1.8 percentage points to import growth[4] - The import growth of most energy and mineral products was affected by price factors, particularly for copper[4] Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to benefit from the tariff suspension in the short term, but pressure may emerge by the end of Q3 2025 due to elevated base effects and potential shifts in US demand[5] - Risks include geopolitical uncertainties and unexpected changes in economic policies that could impact market sentiment[5]

文 | 徐 来 编 辑 | 徐 来 美国与14国谈判破裂后，转而向中国伸出橄榄枝。尽管特朗普嘴上依旧强硬，实际行动却显现出明显松动。关税这根杠杆已用尽，却未换来任何实质妥协。 我认为，这次是贸易博弈中的一次突然反扑，可中国会愿意接招吗？ 白宫连发多封函件，给这14个国家下达了"最后通牒"，时间紧迫，仅有24天的回应期限。 这份命令中规定，对日本、韩国、泰国、印尼、越南、孟加拉国、柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸、南非、波黑、塞尔维亚、哈萨克斯坦和马来西亚等国的产品征收 25%至40%不等的惩罚性关税。 这些国家此前都被纳入了"对等关税"谈判名单。 早在今年4月，美国政府便宣布对全球主要贸易国实施最低10%、最高达40%的惩罚关税。 当时不少人以为，特朗普此举只是为了制造"吓阻效果"，但三个月过去，几乎没有哪个国家让步。 欧盟的谈判破裂，法国公开批评美国强硬无理；韩国毫无妥协，首尔与华盛顿的外交氛围冷若冰霜；日本态度更是激烈，防卫省和产业省联合发布声明，指 责美国"干涉内政、强取豪夺"。 于是，7月7日，美国发布了那份"集体征税函"。 特朗普翻脸快得像翻书，信中明确写道：自8月1日起，这14国产品将全面提高关税，如果期限内不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by Trump's tariff news, with high uncertainty in the US employment market, inflation, and retail sales. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the end of the month is limited, and risks need to be vigilant [1]. - Different metals have different market trends and investment strategies. For example, copper prices may show a high - fall trend, aluminum has limited upward space, zinc continues to be short - allocated, lead is expected to be strongly volatile, nickel and stainless steel are under pressure, tin continues to be short - allocated, and some non - ferrous metals such as lithium carbonate and industrial silicon have certain rebound trends [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Variety Copper - Market situation: The CSPT group did not set a spot purchase guidance price for copper concentrate this quarter, with a large contradiction between mining and smelting. The US tariff policy may affect copper prices, and the spread between refined and scrap copper has changed. The LME 3 - month spot premium has turned into a discount of $60. The market is likely to show a high - fall trend [1]. - Investment strategy: Short positions are held. Consider selling 2508 contract call options with an exercise price of 80,000 and buying 2508 contract put options with an exercise price of 76,000 in a 1:2 ratio [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Market situation: The rainy season in Guinea has come, but due to the large increase in domestic bauxite imports and inventory recovery, the market rumors of the resumption of production of Shunda Mining. The operating capacity of alumina has remained at 93.55 million tons, and the industry's total inventory is stable. The demand for aluminum is affected by the traditional off - season, high - cost aluminum, and high - temperature weather. The inventory has increased, and the price has adjusted [1]. - Investment strategy: Hold the short - allocation strategy for Shanghai aluminum [1]. Zinc - Market situation: After the LME zinc rebounded back to the 60 - day moving average last week, the domestic inventory increased, and the upward momentum of Shanghai zinc was insufficient. As a mine - end pricing variety, it continues the short - allocation strategy, and observe the rhythm of short - sellers' second entry [1]. Lead - Market situation: The LME lead fluctuated, and the Shanghai lead stepped back on the key level of 17,000. The market divergence increased. The supply of domestic lead ore is tight, and the supply of lead ingots is restricted by raw materials. The demand is in the off - season, but there is some consumption expectation. The cost provides strong support, and the impact of tariffs is repeated [1]. - Investment strategy: Long positions are held at 17,000 [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market situation: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level. The stainless steel market is in the traditional off - season, with large inventory, weak demand, and reduced cost support. The price of ferronickel has increased, and the inventory has also increased [1]. - Investment strategy: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - sellers should beware [1]. Tin - Market situation: The LME tin inventory is around 2,000 tons, providing support for tin prices. The supply in Central Africa has decreased, and domestic processing fees are tight. The domestic downstream has a certain replenishment, and the inventory has decreased. The export of some products has decreased. The domestic tin market continues the previous theme, with high domestic and low external visible inventory [1]. - Investment strategy: Continue the short - allocation strategy. Consider short - selling contracts in the high - level range of 258,000 - 272,000 [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Market situation: The trading atmosphere of lithium carbonate has rebounded, with active trading. The spot price of lithium battery has risks, and the procurement is relatively cautious [1]. Industrial Silicon - Market situation: The price of industrial silicon has rebounded, and the demand has increased marginally. The production in Xinjiang has continued to decline, and the marginal increase in Yunnan in July is limited. The inventory has decreased, and the market is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Polysilicon - Market situation: The price of polysilicon has broken through 40,000 yuan/ton. The production in July has exceeded the previous range, and the inventory has increased. The production of batteries has continued to decline, and the price is affected by polysilicon [1]. - Investment strategy: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, and policy expectations are the main trading logic [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver investment rating: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight precious metals showed a volatile performance. Due to the release of US tariff policies with high tax rates and the EU's response to impose additional counter - tariff measures on $72 billion worth of US imported goods if trade negotiations fail, there is still high uncertainty as of the current date. Risk sentiment may fluctuate, and precious metals will mainly trade in a volatile range. Attention should be paid to US CPI data tonight [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Content Tariff - related Information - Trump stated that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict within 50 days, 100% secondary tariffs will be imposed on Russia. US officials clarified that in addition to the 100% tariff, secondary sanctions will also be imposed on countries purchasing Russian goods [2] - The Brazilian vice - president denied the news that Brazil requested the US to reduce tariffs to 30% and postpone the tariff deadline by 90 days. Brazil will announce a reciprocal counter - tariff decree regarding US tariffs [2] - The EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion worth of US goods [1][2] - The Thai Ministry of Finance is considering implementing zero - tariff policies on more US imported products [2] - The US Department of Commerce has launched a 232 investigation into the import of drones and polysilicon [2] Interest Rate - related Information - Trump believes that the Fed should lower interest rates below 1%. US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset thinks the Fed should remain independent but is "very wrong" on the tariff issue. Fed's Harker believes there is no urgent need to cut interest rates currently [2]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 15 日 热点品种 豆油： 今日豆油主力 09 合约早盘开盘价 8010 元/吨，收盘价 8012 元/吨，收盘涨幅 0.30%，盘中最低触及 7984 元/吨，最高达到 8038 元/吨，价格突破 8000 元/吨 压力位，预期后续或将震荡偏强走势。供应端方面，未来两周美豆产区降雨略高 于常值，温度略低于常值，总体上有利于作物生长。国内油厂压榨率提升，油厂 周度压榨量保持在 200 万吨以上，豆油库存持续增加，根据金十期货最新数据显 示，全国重点地区豆油商业库存 104.94 万吨，环比上周增加 2.97 万吨，增幅 2.91%，豆油现货供应整体宽松。近两周工厂虽因油粕胀库的原因导致开机率自 半个月前的 70%下降至 60%左右，豆油产量减少，但是下游贸易商提货不多，导 致了工厂豆油库存继续增加。需求端方面，国际原油下跌，买豆油卖豆粕套利仍 在，且国内油脂消费淡季叠加国内中央经济工作会议提出价格反内卷信号，宏观 资金寻找低价远月合约做多，近期 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the impact of changing tariff policies on investor confidence and the resulting market uncertainty, highlighting the need for strategic navigation through these challenges [1][9] - The company leverages a strong analyst team to transform complex global tariff policies and economic signals into actionable investment strategies, providing tools like "Focus Train" and "Battle Non-Farm" to help investors make informed decisions [1][3] - The company has upgraded its global app to version 2.0.0, enhancing user experience and operational convenience with millisecond-level market response, which is crucial for seizing market opportunities [3] Group 2 - In response to market volatility and increased policy risks, the company emphasizes its strong financial foundation and strategic partnerships with top financial institutions, ensuring a secure trading environment for investors [6] - The company is recognized and regulated by international authorities, providing a transparent trading environment and safeguarding client funds, which enhances investor confidence [6] - The company positions itself as a reliable partner for investors, offering professional analysis, robust tools, and a solid safety framework to navigate through policy-induced market turbulence [9]

新华财经上海7月15日电（葛佳明） 当地时间7月15日（周二）20:30，美国劳工统计局将公布美国6月消费者价格指数（CPI），反映最新的通胀走势。在去 年同期CPI数据的低基数效应及关税逐步传导的作用下，6月CPI数据将持续反弹，关税对物价的影响或在今晚的报告中体现。 新华财经汇总发现，机构分析师普遍预期，6月美国CPI同比增速料从5月的2.4%升至2.7%，为2023年底以来高位，核心CPI从2.8%反弹至3%，环比增速均上 行至0.3%。 目前，美联储内部对后续利率路径呈现较大分歧，但多数美联储官员仍对后续降息持谨慎态度，因此如果6月CPI数据高于预期，或将进一步推迟美联储宽 松的步伐，反之则有望推动市场押注美联储9月提前采取降息行动，也可能成为美国总统特朗普进一步施压美联储主席鲍威尔的关键数据。 高频数据暗示通胀出现反弹 美国劳工部今年6月公布的数据显示，今年5月美国CPI同比上涨2.4%，较4月2.3%的涨幅有所上升，但涨幅已连续四个月低于预期。剔除波动较大的食品和 能源价格后，5月核心CPI同比上涨2.8%。 根据克利夫兰联储的Nowcast模型预测，6月整体CPI同比增速较上月的2.4%攀升至2 ...