2025 年 9 月 23 日 沥青：涨开工厂库小累，化社库降价促销 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,401 | -0.58% | 3,387 | -0.41% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,352 | -0.65% | 3,329 | -0.69% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2511 | 手 | 167,401 | (12,441) | 236,341 | 4,241 | | | BU2512 | 手 | 39,317 | 3,611 | 85,211 | 2,063 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 59380 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价差变动 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 9 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价延续震荡 | 观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 假期临近套利资金离场，品种强弱有所切换，且螺纹钢供需格局有所改善，螺纹周产环比下 降，供应延续收缩，但旺季减产力度存疑，且库存相对偏高，利好效应不强。与此同时，螺纹钢需 求边际改善，高频指标低位回升，但仍是同期低位，且下游行业未好 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of the urea market remains loose and has not reversed. Although the market shows oversold signals, it lacks driving forces and is currently bottoming out at a low level. Attention should be paid to potential rebound opportunities [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Since the weekend, upstream urea factories have mostly reduced prices to attract orders, and low - price transactions are good. There is still room for price cuts before the National Day holiday. The daily output of urea has recovered to over 190,000 tons, and high production suppresses prices. Near the Double - Festival, downstream has pre - stocking demand, and they buy on dips. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased but the growth rate has slowed, and terminal demand is weak. Urea factory inventory is increasing and is much higher than the same period in previous years [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1655 yuan/ton, closed at 1660 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.36%, and the trading volume was 307,400 lots (+10,142 lots). Among the top 20 long and short positions, long positions increased by 6,149 lots and short positions increased by 10,783 lots. On September 22, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,535, a decrease of 275 from the previous trading day [2] - **Spot**: Since the weekend, upstream factories have reduced prices to attract orders, and low - price transactions are good. The ex - factory transaction price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton, and some factories in Hebei quote 1640 - 1650 yuan/ton, mainly for export orders [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Today, the mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 40 yuan/ton (-19 yuan/ton) [8] - **Supply Data**: On September 22, 2025, the national daily urea output was 200,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.51% [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak supply period, and global inventories are gradually accumulating. Although the recent increase in Brazilian sugar production has a negative impact on prices, considering that international sugar prices have fallen to a low level and most of the negative factors have been realized, the low - price sugar has strong support below, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [10]. - In the domestic market, the import volume of sugar in China remained high in August, while the inventory of domestic sugar is low and the sales - to - production ratio is high. Affected by the trend of foreign sugar, both foreign and domestic sugar prices are at a low level. With low domestic sugar inventory and a firm basis, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate within a range and rebound in the short term [10]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,455, down 14 (-0.26%); SR01 at 5,452, down 9 (-0.16%); SR05 at 5,432, down 14 (-0.26%). The trading volume of SR09 was 535, a decrease of 52; SR01 was 185,371, a decrease of 40,117; SR05 was 15,434, a decrease of 7,294. The open interest of SR09 increased by 264 to 2,042; SR01 increased by 6,523 to 456,830; SR05 increased by 1,083 to 58,239 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5,900, 5,905, 6,090, 5,800, 6,015, 5,930, and 6,280 respectively, with price drops of -40, -25, -35, -30, 0, -20, and -30. The corresponding basis was 448, 453, 638, 348, 563, 478, and 828 [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The SR5 - SR01 spread was -20, down 5; the SR09 - SR5 spread was 23, unchanged; the SR09 - SR01 spread was 3, down 5 [5]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE主力 of 16.18, a premium of 0.06, and a freight of 41.50, the in - quota price was 4,449, the out - of - quota price was 5,666, the difference from the Liuzhou price was 234, the difference from the Rizhao price was 264, and the difference from the futures price was -214. For Thai imports, with an ICE主力 of 16.18, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4,407, the out - of - quota price was 5,611, the difference from the Liuzhou price was 289, the difference from the Rizhao price was 319, and the difference from the futures price was -159 [5]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Important Information**: As of the week ending September 16, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,021,095 contracts, a decrease of 86,473 from the previous week. Speculative long positions were 165,809 contracts, an increase of 1,119 from the previous week; speculative short positions were 316,860 contracts, a decrease of 30,438 from the previous week; speculative net short positions were 151,051 contracts, a decrease of 31,557 from the previous week [7]. - India's sugar exports this year are expected to be less than 800,000 tons, unable to meet the quota of 1 million tons. So far, about 750,000 tons of export contracts have been signed and about 720,000 tons have been actually exported. It is estimated that the total export volume in the 2024 - 2025 season will be about 775,000 tons [7]. - On September 17, 2025, Hulunbuir Angel Shengtong Sugar Industry started production, marking the official start of the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, 5 days later than the same period last year. It is expected to process about 1 million tons of beets. Due to more rain in the fall, the actual start - up time was 10 days later than planned. Currently, the new - sugar prices of white sugar and rock sugar in Inner Mongolia are 5,700 yuan/ton and 5,730 yuan/ton respectively. Heifeng Agriculture is expected to start production today, 3 days later than last year. Inner Mongolia Lingyunhai Tianshan Sugar Factory is expected to start production on September 25 to produce rock sugar, and Zhangbei and Qianqi Sugar Factories are expected to start production on September 28 to produce rock sugar and white sugar respectively. If they start as scheduled, the start - up time will be significantly earlier than last year [7][9]. - **Trading Strategies**: For unilateral trading, foreign sugar prices are at a low level and are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Zhengzhou sugar prices are also at a low level, and the downward space is limited. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12][13]. Part 3: Relevant Attachments - The part mainly includes multiple charts such as Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, Guangxi and Yunnan sales - to - production ratio trends, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, and various sugar price spreads and basis charts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [14][17][21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass investment view: Neutral [3] - Soda ash investment view: Bearish [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution logic has a tidal - like trading pattern, but the weak reality persists, and the pattern of oversupply continues. Glass demand has some resilience and may improve in the peak season, with stable supply, large inventory accumulation, and price under pressure. Soda ash has high supply, neutral demand, weakened cost support, large near - month inventory, and limited upside in price. It is recommended to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [37]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. Daily output of national float glass is 16020 tons, with industry start - up rate at 76.01% and capacity utilization at 80.08%, all remaining unchanged from the 11th. There is no cold - repair or ignition of production lines this week, and supply will likely remain stable next week [3]. - Demand: Bullish. The peak season is coming, and demand may improve marginally. This week's production and sales have strengthened [3]. - Inventory: Bullish. Enterprise inventory is 60.908 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 675000 heavy boxes (-1.10%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56%. The inventory days are 26 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuated [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. The current price and valuation are neutral [3]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic has a tidal - like trading pattern, but the weak reality remains, and the overall sentiment is not good [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Cash - and - carry arbitrage. Risk concerns: Daily melting volume [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. This week's soda ash output is 745700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15400 tons (2.02%). Light soda ash output is 328000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11400 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 417700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4000 tons. Due to individual enterprises' shutdown for maintenance and equipment problems, supply has decreased. Recently, there are few device overhauls, and the overall supply shows an increasing trend [4]. - Demand: Neutral. Short - term direct demand is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is stable. However, the terminal demand is difficult to improve, and the negative feedback pressure on price still exists [4]. - Inventory: Neutral. The total manufacturer inventory is 1755600 tons, a decrease of 41900 tons (2.33%) compared with last Thursday. The inventory of light soda ash is 749500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13500 tons, and that of heavy soda ash is 1006100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28400 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory has increased by 356800 tons (25.51%). Recently, the overall inventory has been decreasing, and the inventory of individual enterprises has decreased due to accelerated shipments [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuated [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. The valuation is neutral [4]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic continues, but the overall impact is limited, and the pattern of high short - term supply is difficult to reverse [4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Cash - and - carry arbitrage. Risk concerns: Soda ash plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4]. Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes Glass - Price: This week, the price fluctuated. The main contract closed at 1216 (+36), and the Shahe spot price was 1084 (+12) [6]. Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price fluctuated. The main contract closed at 1318 (+28), and the Shahe spot price was 1216 (+19) [11]. Spread/Basis - Soda ash: The 01 - 05 spread and the basis fluctuated. - Glass: The 01 - 05 spread and the basis fluctuated [22]. Part Three: Supply - and - Demand Fundamental Data Glass Supply - Production is stable. The daily output of national float glass is 16020 tons, with industry start - up rate at 76.01% and capacity utilization at 80.08%, all remaining unchanged from the 11th. There is no cold - repair or ignition of production lines this week, and supply will likely remain stable next week. The production profit of glass fluctuates. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel is - 164.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.29 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas as fuel is 94.03 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.37 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke as fuel is 41.37 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.43 yuan/ton [25]. Glass Demand - The orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises have improved. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 10.5 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The completion data of the real - estate mid - and - back end is poor. From January to August, the housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises is 6431.09 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new construction area is 398.01 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%. The housing completion area is 276.94 million square meters, a decrease of 17.0%. The inventory is decreasing [30]. Soda Ash Supply - Supply is at a high level. This week's soda ash output is 745700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15400 tons (2.02%). Light soda ash output is 328000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11400 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 417700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4000 tons. Due to individual enterprises' shutdown for maintenance and equipment problems, supply has decreased. Recently, there are few device overhauls, and the overall supply shows an increasing trend. The profit of soda ash plants fluctuates. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process is - 36.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton joint - soda process is - 70.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 16 yuan/ton [33]. Soda Ash Demand - The overall demand is neutral. Short - term direct demand is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is stable. However, the terminal demand is not good, and the negative feedback pressure on price still exists. The inventory is decreasing [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: The current situation of weak reality and strong expectation continues. Although there is a reversal logic in the fourth - quarter, the 01 contract is over - valued, lacking the value of bottom - fishing on the left side. The decline since August has not ended, and the strategy is to hold existing short positions and consider short - term shorting for non - participants [1]. - **PTA**: With the cost shift down driven by the expected oversupply of crude oil in the fourth quarter and the weakening supply - demand situation of PTA itself, the fundamentals are pessimistic, and a bearish strategy is recommended [2][3]. - **European Line**: Due to the over - capacity of European line this year and the lack of upward drive, the 10 - contract has fallen deeply, and the 12 - contract may repeat the decline. The idea is to short the 12 - contract after it breaks out of the shock [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Logic Analysis - **Methanol**: Current domestic production is at a high level year - on - year, imports have increased significantly, downstream olefin comprehensive operating rate has declined, and port inventories are still accumulating. The 01 contract has a large premium over the spot, and the fall since August continues. Wait for signs of improvement in supply and demand before considering long positions [1]. - **PTA**: There is a clear downward drive from the cost side of crude oil, and its own supply - demand is expected to weaken, with large inventory accumulation pressure under high supply and weak demand [2][3]. - **European Line**: The near - month 10 - contract has collapsed with the spot price, and the far - month 12 - contract is in a shock pattern. The 10 - contract has limited short - selling value, and the 12 - contract may fall in the future [4]. 3.2 Weekly Fundamentals - **Methanol**: As of September 17, port inventory was 155.78 million tons, up 0.48% month - on - month and 56.06% year - on - year. The weekly coal - to - methanol profit was 600 yuan/ton, total production was 181.13 million tons, down 5.33% month - on - month and 1.54% year - on - year. The device capacity utilization rate dropped to 79.9%, and the 01 - contract basis was 108 yuan/ton [5]. - **PTA**: As of September 18, the domestic PTA operating rate was 77.29%, down 2.34% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year. The weekly production was 143.08 million tons, up 3.09% month - on - month and 4.09% year - on - year. The social inventory was 203.1 million tons, up 0.3 million tons month - on - month. The demand side showed a decline in the operating load and order days of the Jiangsu - Zhejiang weaving industry [6]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **Methanol 2601 contract**: It is in a downward structure on the hourly cycle, with short - term pressure at the 2410 level [7]. - **PTA2601 contract**: It is in a downward structure on the hourly cycle, with short - term pressure at the 4690 level [7]. - **European Line 2510 contract**: It is in a downward structure on the hourly cycle, with short - term pressure at the 1130 level. The 2512 contract is in a shock structure, waiting for the convergence triangle to choose a direction [7]. 3.4 Strategy - **Methanol 2601 contract**: Hold existing short positions and consider short - term shorting on rebounds [10]. - **PTA2601 contract**: Hold existing short positions and consider shorting on rebounds [10]. - **European Line EC2510 contract**: Do not chase short positions. Wait for the 12 - contract to break the lower edge of the convergence triangle and then consider shorting [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each futures variety: cautious bullish for rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon; and recommends holding long positions for iron ore [1]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall steel market shows mixed signals. Rebar has positive supply - demand changes but limited downstream demand improvement, while hot - rolled coil has relatively stable supply - demand. Iron ore has a strong fundamental due to increased iron - water production, supply contraction, and pre - National Day restocking. Coke starts price hikes and runs in a range following coking coal. Coking coal has supply tightness but also import support and runs strongly in a range. Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon have relatively balanced supply - demand with limited upside potential [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Rebar**: The apparent demand improves month - on - month, production decreases slightly, and inventory starts to decline, but the inventory reduction speed needs further observation. Tangshan's production limit news provides a short - term boost. Iron - water production remains high, and overall steel supply is abundant. Downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and real estate and infrastructure are still drags. It is expected to run in a range in the short term [1][4][5]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The apparent demand declines, production and inventory increase slightly, and supply - demand is relatively stable with few contradictions. Iron - water production remains high, and overall steel demand is weak, lacking upward drivers. It is expected to run in a range in the short term [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Iron - water production increases again, supply shrinks, and combined with pre - National Day restocking by steel mills, the fundamentals are strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [1][6][7]. Coke - Coke starts the first round of price hikes, coke enterprises' profits are acceptable, and spot production is relatively stable. Iron - water production increases slightly and remains high, leading to high raw material demand. Coke's supply - demand is relatively balanced and runs in a range following coking coal. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][10][11]. Coking Coal - The energy bureau's inspection of coal over - production has led to some mines' suspension for rectification. Domestic coking coal production is significantly lower than the same period last year, with tight supply, but there are expectations of a market recovery. Mongolian coal imports are at a high level. Iron - water production rises slightly, ensuring raw material demand. In the short term, supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it runs strongly in a range due to policy disturbances on the supply side. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][14][15]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Ferromanganese**: The fundamentals are becoming looser. After the new round of restocking demand is released, it may be more difficult to reduce inventory in the production areas. The cost side provides strong support for prices in the short term, but the upside space is limited. It is advisable to participate in short - term long positions or wait and see [1][17][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Enterprise inventory decreases slightly, but warehouse receipts stop decreasing and start to increase, with a still high absolute value, suppressing price increases. It is expected to run in a range following coal prices in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions [1][17][18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Various energy and chemical futures show different trends, including short - term rebounds, mid - term weakness, and different trading strategies such as spreads and position management. For example, PX and PTA show short - term rebounds but mid - term weakness, while some products like rubber are in a state of shock operation [2][10][11] Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: PX主力昨日收盘价6594，涨跌幅 - 1.35%；PTA主力收盘价4604，涨跌幅 - 1.33%；MEG主力收盘价4257，涨跌幅 - 0.26%。PX11 - 1月差昨日收盘价0，前日收盘价18；PTA11 - 1月差昨日收盘价 - 22，前日收盘价 - 20；MEG1 - 5月差昨日收盘价 - 60，前日收盘价 - 62 [5] - **Market Dynamics**: On September 19, Asian PX prices fell to $816/ton CFR Unv1/China due to negative downstream PTA market margins. Chinese domestic PTA margins are negative, around 120 - 130 yuan/ton. Some PTA production line startups are postponed, and some PX and PTA device maintenance plans are affected [6][9] - **Trend Intensity**: All are 0, indicating a neutral view [10] - **Views and Suggestions**: PX and PTA are expected to rebound in the short - term following oil prices, with 11 - 01 long spreads and 1 - 5 short spreads. For PX, PXN compression positions should stop profit below $220. For MEG, the market focuses on anti - involution policies, with a mid - term weak trend and 1 - 5 short spreads [10][11][12] Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Rubber主力日盘收盘价15,535元/吨，夜盘收盘价15,545元/吨，成交量264,433手，持仓量159,362手等. The basis and spreads show certain changes [14] - **Industry News**: In 2025, domestic tire enterprises' overseas investment and construction scale continues to expand. Most tire listed companies' revenues increase, but profits decline due to high raw material costs and trade barriers [16][17] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [14] - **Views**: Rubber is in a state of shock operation [13] Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: The 10 - contract of synthetic rubber has a daily - closing price of 11,445 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 94,561 hands and a position of 75,259 hands. The basis and spreads change slightly [18] - **Industry News**: As of September 17, 2025, domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber sample enterprise inventories decreased by 0.08 million tons, and butadiene East China port inventories decreased by 2,500 tons [19] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [20] - **Views**: Short - term shock pressure, with a narrowing downside space due to high supply pressure and cost - side pressure [20] Asphalt - **Fundamental Data**: BU2511 closed at 3,421 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 179,842 hands and a position of 232,100 hands. The refinery operating rate is 42.59%, and the inventory rate is 26.24% [22] - **Market News**: Last week, domestic asphalt device maintenance increased by 2.0 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate of 77 heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.5%. The capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises increased by 1.7%, and the shipment volume of 54 asphalt enterprises increased by 14.6% [33] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [30] - **Views**: Narrow - range shock operation [21] LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: L2601 closed at 7169, with a trading volume of 201,711 hands and a position change of 26,840 hands. The 01 - contract basis is - 79 [35] - **Spot News**: LLDPE market prices fell slightly, with weak trading due to low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [35] - **Market Analysis**: PE demand improves due to the approaching peak season of the agricultural film industry. Supply pressure may ease in the East China region at the end of September. Polyethylene social inventory is relatively low, and the mid - term trend is expected to be range - bound [36] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [37] PP - **Fundamental Data**: PP2601 closed at 6914, with a trading volume of 230,403 hands and a position change of 35,189 hands. The 01 - contract basis is - 174 [39] - **Spot News**: The domestic PP market is weak, with prices falling by 10 - 40 yuan/ton due to weak futures and low downstream purchasing [40] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term demand improves, but the cost side is weak. Supply - side maintenance increases, and downstream processing start - up rates improve slightly. Before the National Day, the market is rational, and short - selling should be cautious [40] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [41] Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: The 01 - contract futures price is 2641, and the Shandong 32% ion - membrane caustic soda spot price is 780 [44] - **Spot News**: Shandong alumina manufacturers reduced the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan/ton on September 21 [45] - **Market Analysis**: Shandong caustic soda spot is under pressure, but the optimistic expectation of alumina production increase cannot be falsified in the short - term. The market may show a wide - range shock [46] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [47] Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: The pulp main contract has a daily - closing price of 5,018 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 177,854 hands and a position of 166,419 hands. The basis and spreads change slightly [50] - **Industry News**: The pulp market is generally weak, with high port inventories and weak downstream demand. The prices of some paper products are stable, and the industry's profitability is poor [51][52] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [50] - **Views**: Wide - range shock operation [49] Glass - **Fundamental Data**: FG601 closed at 1216, with a trading volume of 1,273,744 hands and a position change of 1,183 hands. The 01 - contract basis is - 96 [54] - **Spot News**: Domestic float glass market prices are stable, with some price loosening in the Shahe area. Supply is unchanged, and some downstream processing plants have pre - holiday rush orders [54] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [54] - **Views**: The original sheet price is stable [53] Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Methanol主力01合约收盘价2,361元/吨，成交量756,698手，持仓量928,408手. The basis is - 108, and the MA01 - MA05 spread is - 20 [57] - **Spot News**: As of September 17, 2025, China's methanol port sample inventory is 155.78 million tons, with a slight increase. Different regions have different inventory trends [59] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [60] - **Views**: The short - term main contract is under shock pressure, but the downside space is narrowing due to supply - side pressure and potential fundamental improvement [59][60] Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Urea主力01合约收盘价1,661元/吨，成交量112,725手，持仓量297,254手. The basis and spreads change slightly [62] - **Industry News**: On September 17, 2025, China's urea enterprise total inventory increased by 3.26 million tons. The mid - term trend is bearish due to weak domestic demand and limited export price drive [63][64] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [64] - **Views**: The trend is under pressure, with possible pre - National Day price - cut promotions [64] Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Styrene2511 closed at 7,152, and the EB - BZ spread is 1315. Non - integrated and integrated profits change [65] - **Spot News**: The macro mood is weak, and Shandong styrene prices are soft. Downstream replenishment willingness is low, and port inventories may accumulate. Pure benzene supply pressure is high in the fourth quarter [66] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [65] - **Views**: Mid - term bearish [65] Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: SA2601 closed at 1,318, with a trading volume of 922,286 hands and a position change of - 9,941 hands. The 01 - contract basis is - 118 [70] - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market is in shock adjustment, with stable prices. Some devices have slight production increases, and downstream demand is moderate [70] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [70] - **Views**: The spot market has little change [69] LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: PG2510 closed at 4,425, with a daily decline of 0.78%. PL2601 closed at 6,388, with a daily decline of 0.56%. PDH, MTBE, and alkylation start - up rates change [73] - **Market News**: On September 19, 2025, the CP paper goods prices of propane and butane decreased. There are many domestic PDH and LPG device maintenance plans [80][81] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [77] - **Views**: LPG shows short - term narrow - range shock, and propylene is weak at high levels in the short - term [72][73] PVC - **Fundamental Data**: 01 - contract futures price is 4950, and the East China spot price is 4780, with a basis of - 170 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 303 [83] - **Spot News**: The domestic PVC spot market is stable, with weak trading. The pre - holiday supply - demand pattern is unchanged [83] - **Market Analysis**: PVC is short - term strong due to anti - deflation and anti - involution factors, but mid - term pressure remains due to high production, high inventory, weak domestic demand, and policy - affected exports [83] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [84] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: FU2510 closed at 2,819, with a daily increase of 0.43%. LU2510 closed at 3,368, with a daily decline of 0.27%. Spot prices in different regions change [86] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [86] - **Views**: Fuel oil shows a short - term adjustment trend with a slight night - session decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak shock state with a narrowing high - low sulfur spread [86] Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: EC2510 closed at 1,050.5, with a daily decline of 6.00%. Different contracts' trading volumes, positions, and spreads are provided. SCFIS and SCFI for European and US - West routes show different trends [88] - **Trend Intensity**: Not provided - **Views**: In a shock market [88]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is -1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [3] Core Viewpoints - Synthetic rubber is under short - term shock pressure with a neutral - downward driver, but the downside space is narrowing from a valuation perspective. The fundamentals of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber face increased pressure mainly due to high supply. The supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. The inventory pressure of cis - butadiene rubber is rising, and the high processing profit on the cis - butadiene rubber futures is unsustainable. Butadiene is also expected to face high - supply pressure, which will put pressure on the cost side of cis - butadiene rubber. Macroscopically, the Fed's interest - rate cut signal is neutral, and the macro - end has limited impact on the commodity market before the next Fed meeting and the Fourth Plenary Session. The downside space of the futures price is narrowing as the fundamentals are partially reflected in the valuation, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the price is approaching the static cost line [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, the closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber 10 - contract increased by 30 yuan/ton to 11,445 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 21,553 lots to 94,561 lots, the open interest increased by 756 lots to 75,259 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 122,814 ten - thousand yuan to 542,409 ten - thousand yuan. The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber to the futures main contract decreased by 30 to 205, and the monthly spread (BR10 - BR11) increased by 15 to 70 [1] - In the spot market, the prices of cis - butadiene rubber in North China, East China, South China, and Shandong remained unchanged. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber of models 1502 and 1712 also remained unchanged. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 50 yuan/ton and 75 yuan/ton respectively [1] - In terms of fundamentals, the cis - butadiene rubber operating rate, theoretical full cost, and profit remained unchanged [1] Industry News - As of September 17, 2025, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29%. The downstream continued to purchase at low prices, and the spot negotiation center was under pressure. The inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both decreased slightly [2] - As of September 17, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 22,100 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous period. Some imported cargoes have not been put into storage, and the short - term inventory continues to decline with limited tradable volume. However, there are still expectations of cargo arrivals, and the import volume in September is expected to be sufficient [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: A clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities (★★★) [1] - Fuel oil: A clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities (★★★) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: A clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities (★★★) [1] - Asphalt: A clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities (★★★) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: A clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities (★★★) [1] Core Views - The medium-term bearish trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged, and short-term geopolitical factors have limited impact on price rebounds. It is recommended to continue to focus on the strategy combination of high-level short positions and call options [2] - For fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, the space for further compression of the high-low sulfur spread is limited. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of expanding the high-low sulfur spread on dips [3] - The asphalt futures continue to oscillate within a range, with the bottom support remaining and limited downside space [4] - The short-term price-to-oil ratio of LPG is expected to be strong, with good bottom support on the spot side. Attention should be paid to the peak-season stocking market [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC11 contract falling 1.87%. Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels more than expected due to a significant increase in exports, while the increase in middle distillate inventories raised market concerns about demand. The Fed's 25bp interest rate cut did not bring more-than-expected positive news [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, the main crude oil contract declined, and fuel oil futures also fell, with the decline of FU being relatively limited. Since the frequent attacks on Russian refineries, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline, and the continuous increase in the operating rate of Shandong refineries is beneficial to the feed demand for fuel oil. The incremental consumption of marine fuel in the Singapore market is also concentrated in the high-sulfur marine fuel sector [3] - The third batch of low-sulfur fuel oil export quotas is only 700,000 tons, lower than 1 million tons in the third batch last year. Cumulatively, the low-sulfur export quotas in 2025 have increased by 900,000 tons year-on-year. However, considering the still low quota utilization rate, the supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited [3] Asphalt - Crude oil continued to correct, and asphalt futures continued to oscillate within a range. Factory and social inventories continued to decline, with the decline slowing down compared to the beginning of the week. As of now this week, the cumulative warehouse receipts in East China warehouses have decreased by 3,050 tons, and 1,330 tons of factory warehouse receipts were cancelled today. The downward pressure on spot prices in East China has eased, and spot prices in South China and Hebei have remained stable [4] LPG - The overseas market remains strong, and the overall sentiment is bullish under strong import demand and rising geopolitical risks. In South China, imports have decreased due to the impact of typhoons. At the same time, the chemical profit margin remains good, and the high operating rate pattern can still be maintained. The short-term price-to-oil ratio is expected to be strong [5]