光大期货能化商品日报 | 品种 | 点评 周二油价收涨，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.90 美元至 60.34 美 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/桶，涨幅 1.51%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘上涨 0.98 美元至 64.92 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.53%。SC2603 以 442.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 4 元/桶， | | | | 涨幅为 0.91%。特朗普以征收关税为筹码，威胁若不交出格陵兰 | | | | 岛就对多个欧洲国家采取关税措施，其争夺格陵兰岛的强硬行径 | | | | 引发金融市场震荡。对于美国收购格陵兰岛的企图持反对态度的 | | | 原油 | 欧洲多国领导人，对特朗普的关税威胁表示强烈抵制，并警告称 | 震荡 | | | 若美方实施关税措施，他们将予以反击。天气方面，本周晚些时 | | | | 候到下周将有寒冷天气席卷美国，这包括进入德克萨斯州的霜冻 | | | | 气温，昨天夜盘气价大幅拉升，原油亦担忧天气而呈现反弹。从 | | | | 时间窗口来看，需关注在严寒天气的持续性，以及是否引发冻井 | | | | 2 现象，预计 月初天 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has implemented adjustments to the trading margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts to mitigate market volatility and maintain trading order during a sensitive period ahead of the Spring Festival [1][2][3]. Group 1: Margin and Price Fluctuation Adjustments - Starting from January 22, 2026, the price fluctuation limit for copper futures will be adjusted to 8%, with the margin ratio for hedging positions set at 9% and for general positions at 10% [1][2]. - Similar adjustments have been made for aluminum futures, with the same price fluctuation limits and margin ratios as copper [1][2]. - For gold futures, the fluctuation limits are set at 16% for contracts AU2602, AU2603, and AU2604, with margin ratios of 17% for hedging and 18% for general positions; other gold contracts have slightly lower limits [2][8]. - Silver futures have a fluctuation limit of 17% for contracts AG2602, AG2603, and AG2604, with corresponding margin ratios of 18% and 19%; other silver contracts have lower limits [2][8]. Group 2: Market Context and Reactions - The adjustments come in response to significant price volatility in precious metals, with gold prices recently surpassing $4,800 per ounce and silver exceeding $95 per ounce [10]. - Following the SHFE's intervention, the night trading session for gold futures saw prices rise to 1,074 yuan per gram, reflecting an over 8% increase for the year; however, silver futures experienced a decline [10]. - The SHFE's actions are seen as a measure to strengthen market regulation and prevent systemic risks, especially as international metal prices have been highly volatile [2][3]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - Analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar are contributing to the rising prices of precious metals, indicating a potential long-term strategic value for these assets as hedges against market instability [11]. - Concerns about a "de-dollarization" trend are emerging, as investors seek to diversify away from the dollar, which may further benefit precious metals and other resource commodities [11][12]. - There are also indications of increased caution regarding copper prices, with a notable reduction in speculative positions and rising domestic copper inventories due to mismatched supply and demand [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant rise, with prices surpassing the 4750 mark, driven by increased risk aversion and geopolitical tensions [2][6]. Market Performance - Overnight, COMEX gold futures rose by 3.70%, while SHFE gold increased by 1.98% [2][6]. - The current market sentiment reflects a retreat from risk, leading to a decline in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar, alongside a sharp drop in Bitcoin [2][6]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical issues, particularly concerning Greenland, are heightening market tensions, with the U.S. using tariffs as a tool for negotiating benefits [2][6]. - Japan's long-term bonds faced significant selling pressure due to expectations of early elections and expansionary fiscal policies, contributing to market anxiety [2][6]. - Trump's assertion of the necessity to acquire Greenland and threats of tariffs against multiple European nations have provoked backlash from major EU countries, exacerbating the U.S. market's turmoil [2][6]. Short-term Outlook - In the context of the Federal Reserve potentially pausing interest rate cuts in January, geopolitical conflicts are becoming a focal point for investors, particularly regarding U.S.-Iran tensions and the situation in Greenland [2][6]. - The prevailing risk aversion is expected to sustain gold's appeal in the short term [2][6].

科技投资，特别是与人工智能相关的投资，正在成为全球经济增长的重要驱动力。报告指出，全球科技 行业投资增速迅猛，在北美和亚洲地区体现尤为明显。这种增长不仅体现在高科技公司自身的投资上， 还体现为其他行业对人工智能技术的采用和投资上。另外，科技投资的快速增长还带动了半导体和其他 技术设备的出口，这一点在亚洲经济体中表现得尤为突出。除了投资本身对经济增长带来贡献之外，有 关技术的应用可以提高生产效率、降低成本，并创造新的产品和服务。科技投资还可以促进创新，推动 经济增长方式转变，创造新的增长。科技产品的出口还可以为其他国家提供先进的科技产品和服务，促 进全球包容性增长。 1月19日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布《世界经济展望报告》（以下简称"报告"）更新内容，指出 全球经济在分化力量中保持平稳，预计全球经济将在2026年增长3.3%，在2027年增长3.2%，相较于 2025年10月的预测值略有上调。其中，报告将2025年中国经济增长率上调0.2个百分点至5%，将2026年 中国经济增长率上调0.3个百分点。 报告指出，此次上调中国2025年经济增速，反映了中国政府出台提振措施以及政策性银行为投资提供额 外贷款对 ...

宏观对话行业：地缘扰动下的周期品走势 20260120 摘要 美国战略重心转向美洲，强化"新门罗主义"，引发市场对地缘政治风 险的担忧，尤其是在委内瑞拉的军事行动和对格陵兰岛资源的争夺，可 能加剧国际紧张局势。 中国通过稀土、大豆等资源应对美国的技术封锁，提升了市场对其国家 治理能力的信心。同时，中国可深化"一带一路"倡议，以应对美国在 西半球的影响，并提升出口韧性。 中国出口目的地结构发生变化，对墨西哥出口贡献转负，但欧洲和非洲 国家成为新的增长点，新兴经济体的工业化需求支撑了中国出口韧性， 应淡化对美国市场需求的研究。 地缘政治扰动下，有色金属板块存在投资机会，包括类货币金属（如黄 金）和科技金属。黄金受益于去美元化和地缘政治紧张，科技金属受益 于 AI 和电能改造等新兴需求。 建议关注供给脆弱性叠加需求扩张周期的科技金属，如锡，其价格预计 将超过 50 万元以上，推荐阿尔法表现突出的企业，如新银锡、华锡有 色等。 Q&A 过去几年地缘政治局势的变化对全球市场产生了哪些影响？2026 年有哪些潜 在的风险点需要投资者关注？ 过去几年，尤其是 2025 年以来，地缘政治局势对全球市场产生了显著影响。 202 ...

在正式现身之前，特朗普已经成为本届达沃斯被讨论得最早、也最密集的话题。 当地时间21日，素有"世界经济风向标"之称的世界经济论坛年会（达沃斯论坛）进入第三天。美国总统 特朗普计划于当天下午到场，并将发表特别讲话。与往年不同的是，在正式现身之前，特朗普已经成为 本届达沃斯论坛被讨论得最早、也最密集的话题。 美国现任总统亲自出席达沃斯并不多见。历史上，美国总统极少亲自前往达沃斯，直到特朗普在2018年 和2020年两次出席，此前一次到场的美国总统，还是世纪之交的比尔·克林顿。也正因如此，在美国历 任总统中，特朗普被视为乐于走进达沃斯的人物之一。 从主会场的公开发言，到闭门会议、社交场合中的私下交流；从政界、商界人士对政策走向的判断，到 欧洲普通民众的直接情绪反应……特朗普在达沃斯的"存在感"，并不仅来自他即将到来的行程本身，而 更像是一种提前笼罩会议的现实背景。 在论坛开幕前一天，记者搭乘世界经济论坛主办方安排的接驳车，从苏黎世机场前往达沃斯。途中，车 辆在高速路上被警方临时拦停，多名警察登车，对乘客逐一检查护照。需要说明的是，能够登上这趟接 驳车的，原本就只限于受邀参会的嘉宾、媒体人员和工作人员，且在登车前已完 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt [1][7] - **Bearish Continuation**: L, PP, PVC, glass, soda ash [1][7] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Natural gas [7] - **Range - bound**: PX/PTA [2] - **Cautiously Bullish with Caution**: Methanol, urea [3][4] - **Cautiously Bearish with Caution**: Ethylene glycol [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors and supply surplus are in a tug - of - war, with oil prices poised for adjustment. There are uncertainties in the Middle East, and supply is in excess during the off - season [1][10]. - **LPG**: It follows the decline in oil prices as the cost end. Although there is some support from downstream demand and inventory, the downward pressure is increasing [1][15]. - **L**: Linear production scheduling has increased, and the market is expected to continue its weak oscillation in the short term due to the off - season demand and inventory accumulation [1][20]. - **PP**: With high warehouse receipts and weak cost support, the supply - demand situation is relatively balanced in the short term, but attention should be paid to PDH device dynamics [1][24]. - **PVC**: The cost support has improved, but the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [1][27]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand balance is tight, and the outlook is positive. Although there is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, the overall situation is expected to improve [2][29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand balance is loose, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. The domestic device load has increased, and demand is seasonally weak [2][32]. - **Methanol**: The supply - demand situation is slightly loose, and the rebound height may be limited. There is a game between the weak current situation and strong expectations [3][36]. - **Urea**: There is short - term inventory reduction and cost support, but the demand is expected to weaken during the holiday season. The price has an upper and lower limit [4][40]. - **Natural Gas**: Cold air has boosted demand, but the supply is sufficient, and the upward space of gas prices may be limited [7][46]. - **Asphalt**: In the off - season of demand, the raw material end provides support, and the price remains stable. The cracking spread still has room for compression [7][49]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the market is expected to be weak before further supply reduction [7][54]. - **Soda Ash**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, the demand support is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [7][58]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.72% and Brent rising 0.39%, while the domestic SC fell 0.93% [9][10] - **Basic Logic**: The Middle East geopolitical situation has eased but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus during the off - season, and the global and US inventories are increasing [10][11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is increasing production and pressing down prices. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the SC should be monitored in the range of [430 - 445] [12] 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On January 20, the PG main contract closed at 4059 yuan/ton, a 1.58% decline. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China also showed different degrees of decline [14] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the long - term. The downstream chemical demand is resilient, and the inventory has decreased [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG price still has room for compression. The PG should be monitored in the range of [3100 - 3200] [16] 3.3 L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract price fell, and the basis weakened significantly [18] - **Basic Logic**: Linear production scheduling has increased, the parking ratio has decreased, and the production is expected to rise slightly. The demand is in the off - season, and inventory has accumulated [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to continue its weak oscillation in the short term, and the L should be monitored in the range of [6550 - 6750] [20] 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract price declined slightly [22] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, the cost support is weakening, and the supply - demand situation is relatively balanced in the short term. Attention should be paid to PDH device dynamics [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The PP should be monitored in the range of [6400 - 6600] [24] 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract price rose slightly [25] - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda has fallen, and the cost support has improved. However, the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is mainly recommended to conduct positive spreads between months. The V should be monitored in the range of [4650 - 4850] [27] 3.6 PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract price fell [28] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low, the processing fee has improved, the supply - side devices are under planned maintenance, the demand is seasonally weak, and there is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term driving force is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 05 contract, and the TA05 should be monitored in the range of [5120 - 5250] [30] 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract price remained unchanged [31] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low. The domestic device load has increased, the overseas device maintenance is expected to be high, the demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory is expected to accumulate [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds, and the EG05 should be monitored in the range of [3650 - 3750] [33] 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [34] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic and overseas device loads have decreased, the import pressure is expected to ease, the demand is slightly weak, and the cost support is weakly stable [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - side pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is suppressed by the weak olefin market. The MA05 should be monitored in the range of [2190 - 2240] [38] 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: The UR05 contract price rose slightly [39] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The overall production load has increased, the demand is short - term strong but may weaken during the holiday season, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter storage is of limited benefit, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the overseas natural gas price increase may drive the domestic market. The UR05 should be monitored in the range of [1770 - 1800] [42] 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On January 19, the NG main contract remained unchanged, and the spot prices in the US and Europe showed different trends [45] - **Basic Logic**: Cold air has boosted demand, but the supply is sufficient. The production is growing steadily, and the inventory in the US has decreased [46] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the winter consumption season, the demand supports the gas price, but the upward space is limited. The NG should be monitored in the range of [3.670 - 4.205] [46] 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 20, the BU main contract closed at 3139 yuan/ton, a 0.10% decline [48] - **Basic Logic**: The raw material supply is uncertain, providing support for the price. The cost profit has decreased, the production has increased, the demand has entered the off - season, and the inventory has increased [49] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is returning to normal, and the supply - side uncertainty has increased. The BU should be monitored in the range of [3100 - 3200] [50] 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract price fell [52] - **Basic Logic**: The demand is in the off - season, and the supply needs to be further reduced. The weak demand restricts the upward space [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It should be treated weakly before further supply reduction. The FG should be monitored in the range of [1030 - 1080] [54] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract price declined [56] - **Basic Logic**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, the demand support from the glass industry is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [58] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - side pressure is high, and the SA should be monitored in the range of [1150 - 1200] [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Globally, the geopolitical landscape is undergoing adjustments, with the US - EU game as a key variable. The EU's freezing of the US - EU trade agreement approval process has led to a halt in bilateral economic and trade cooperation, triggering panic about a possible $4 trillion US debt sell - off by Europe. The traditional safe - haven status of US debt is challenged, and the financial market has entered a "safe - haven - dominated" stage. The US faces structural dilemmas, and global capital is shifting to diversified allocation. Domestically, in 2025, the economy showed structural differentiation. In 2026, with a GDP growth target of 4.5% - 5%, expanding domestic demand is the core focus. Fiscal and monetary policies are coordinated to support domestic demand, infrastructure investment, consumption stimulation, and industrial upgrading [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the appreciation foundation of the RMB against the US dollar is solid, but the appreciation process will be relatively moderate, affected by the strength of the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation [3]. - For the stock index, although there are many external disturbances, the bottom support of the stock index is strong [4]. - For treasury bonds, the short - term upward trend of the bond market is mainly driven by the stock market adjustment, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [6]. - For the container shipping European line, the short - term is expected to continue the volatile pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the spot market may show "off - season not off" characteristics, and the futures are expected to be in a high - level wide - range volatile state. It is recommended to wait for the market risk to be fully released before entering the market [10]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, in the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, and in the medium - long term, it is recommended to pay attention to the supply side [12]. - For copper, the exchange has strengthened supervision, and the short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious when building new positions above 100,000 yuan [16]. - For aluminum, the short - term is affected by emotions and may fluctuate and correct, but there is upward space in the medium - long term; for alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak; for cast aluminum alloy, it has strong follow - up to aluminum and is recommended to pay attention to the spread [18]. - For nickel - stainless steel, it is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the quota issuance rhythm [19]. - For oilseeds, the external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal is affected by the reserve release, and the rapeseed meal may return to international pricing if the trade relationship improves [23]. - For oils, they are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [23]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur market is still weak, and the low - sulfur cracking is sluggish [26][27]. - For asphalt, it will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention can be paid to positive spreads, 03 basis, and cracking long - matching opportunities [29]. - For platinum and palladium, the bull market foundation is still there, but attention should be paid to the opening jump phenomenon [33]. - For gold and silver, gold is strong, and silver is volatile. The overall trend of precious metals is easy to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of silver's decline [34]. - For pulp - offset paper, the pulp market is relatively bearish, and the offset paper is expected to be neutral. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. - For LPG, the supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41]. - For PTA - PX, the short - term is affected by unexpected maintenance rumors, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [41]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the demand side is under pressure, and the over - supply expectation suppresses the valuation [44]. - For methanol, the geopolitical logic continues, but the 05 contract's fundamentals have weakened marginally, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - For PP, it is necessary to pay attention to the PDH device dynamics, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be better than that of PE [48]. - For PE, it is turning to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand and is expected to be weak in the short term [49]. - For pure benzene - styrene, the supply side has new changes, and the styrene price rose at night [49]. - For rubber, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range and may stabilize in the short term, but external risks should be noted [53]. - For glass and soda ash, the supply - demand expectation is weak [55][56]. - For propylene, the supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and device changes [57]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, they are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the price range is recommended [58][59]. - For iron ore, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and the price is affected by macro expectations [60]. - For coking coal and coke, the disk is weak, and the long - term price may be under pressure if the macro situation changes [62]. - For live pigs, the cold wave has put pressure on the northern pig prices [63]. - For cotton, it is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and orders [65]. - For sugar, it is expected to fluctuate under pressure, and attention should be paid to the production progress in Thailand and India [67]. - For eggs, the price is expected to be stable overall with local adjustments [69]. - For apples, the near - term contracts are affected by weak demand, and the far - term contracts are less affected. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation [74]. - For red dates, the short - term price may fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement [75]. - For logs, although the price has broken through, it does not have the condition to continue to fall sharply. It is recommended to operate in the range of 750 - 795 [76]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: The EU has frozen the US - EU trade agreement approval process; the ADP weekly employment report shows an average increase of 8,000 private - sector jobs per week; there are issues related to Greenland; domestic fiscal and financial policies are coordinated to promote domestic demand; the US Treasury Secretary reveals the progress of nominating the next Fed Chairman [1]. - **Core Judgments and Transmission Logic**: Geopolitical changes have led to a "safe - haven - dominated" global financial market. Domestically, expanding domestic demand is the focus in 2026, and fiscal and monetary policies are coordinated to support the economy [2]. - **Exchange Rate Analysis**: The RMB has a solid foundation for appreciation against the US dollar, but the process will be moderate, affected by the US dollar index and central bank regulation [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Export enterprises are recommended to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises are recommended to adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [4]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index closed down collectively, and the trading volume increased slightly [4]. - **Important Information**: The Ministry of Finance has announced policies to support the economy, and there is a global bond - selling wave [4]. - **Market Interpretation**: The stock index was affected by geopolitical factors and short - term capital adjustments but has strong bottom support [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The treasury bond market rose, and the bond yield decreased [5]. - **Important Information**: The LPR remained unchanged, and policies were announced to expand domestic demand [6]. - **Core Views**: The short - term upward trend of the bond market is driven by the stock market, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [6]. Container Shipping European Line - **Market Review**: The container shipping index (European line) futures market closed down, and the trading volume was light [7]. - **Information Sorting**: The core contradiction is the game between the price cut of leading shipping companies and the repeated resumption of navigation. There are both positive and negative factors [8]. - **Trading Judgments**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rose, and the trading volume increased [10]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain was average, and the price of lithium ore and lithium salt increased [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The spot market may show "off - season not off" characteristics, and the futures are expected to be in a high - level wide - range volatile state [10]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: The futures price of industrial silicon decreased, and that of polysilicon increased [11]. - **Industry Performance**: The industrial silicon spot market was average, and the photovoltaic industry spot market improved [12]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, and in the medium - long term, it is recommended to pay attention to the supply side [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The copper price continued to adjust, and the basis decreased [14]. - **Industry Information**: The exchange has adjusted the trading margin and price limit, and the inventory has changed [15]. - **Viewpoint**: The exchange has strengthened supervision, and the short - term price is under pressure [16]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy changed [17]. - **Core Views**: Aluminum may fluctuate and correct in the short term but has upward space in the medium - long term; alumina is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum [18]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased [18]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market price and inventory of nickel and stainless steel changed [19]. - **Market Analysis**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the quota issuance rhythm [19]. Oils and Feeds - **Oilseeds** - **Market Review**: The price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the funds in the meal market continued to decline [21]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply of imported soybeans may be in short supply in the first quarter, and the supply of rapeseed meal may increase if the trade relationship improves [22]. - **Outlook**: The external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal is affected by the reserve release, and the rapeseed meal may return to international pricing [23]. - **Oils** - **Market Review**: The prices of US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil rebounded [23]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The export of palm oil increased, and the policies of the US and Indonesia affected the market [24]. - **Viewpoint**: They are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [23]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil changed [26]. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have different characteristics, and the inventory has changed [26]. - **Core Logic**: The high - sulfur market is still weak, and the low - sulfur cracking is sluggish [26][27]. - **Asphalt** - **Spot Situation**: The asphalt price was stable, and the supply and demand in different regions were different [28]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed, and the price is affected by geopolitical factors [29]. - **Viewpoint**: It will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention can be paid to positive spreads, 03 basis, and cracking long - matching opportunities [29]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium** - **Market Review**: The prices of platinum and palladium rose [31]. - **Trading Logic**: Geopolitical and tariff issues have injected short - term safe - haven premiums [31]. - **Viewpoint**: The bull market foundation is still there, but attention should be paid to the opening jump phenomenon [33]. - **Gold and Silver** - **Market Review**: Gold rose, and silver fluctuated [34]. - **Trading Logic**: The geopolitical situation has increased the safe - haven demand for gold, and silver is affected by industrial demand and other factors [34]. - **Viewpoint**: Gold is strong, and silver is volatile. The overall trend of precious metals is easy to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of silver's decline [34]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper** - **Market Review**: The futures prices of pulp and offset paper fluctuated [37]. - **Spot Market**: The price of pulp was stable, and the port inventory increased [37][38]. - **Viewpoint**: The pulp market is relatively bearish, and the offset paper is expected to be neutral. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. - **LPG** - **Market Dynamics**: The LPG price decreased, and the spread changed [40]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price decreased, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [41]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41]. - **PTA - PX** - **Fundamental Situation**: The supply and demand of PX and PTA have changed, and the profit has decreased [41]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term is affected by unexpected maintenance rumors, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips** - **Inventory**: The inventory of MEG in East China ports has increased [43]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The supply and demand of MEG and polyester have changed, and the profit has been repaired [43]. - **Viewpoint**: The demand side is under pressure, and the over - supply expectation suppresses the valuation [44]. - **Methanol** - **Market Dynamics**: The methanol price changed [45]. - **Spot Feedback**: The basis and inventory of methanol have changed [45]. - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical logic continues, but the 05 contract's fundamentals have weakened marginally, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **PP** - **Market Dynamics**: The PP price decreased [45]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price of PP is different in different regions, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [46]. - **Viewpoint**: It is necessary to pay attention to the PDH device dynamics, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be better than that of PE [48]. - **PE** - **Market Dynamics**: The PE price decreased [49]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price of PE decreased, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [49]. - **Viewpoint**: It is turning to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand and is expected to be weak in the short term [49]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene** - **Market Review**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed [49]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the basis increased [50]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply side has new changes, and the styrene price rose at night [49]. - **Rubber** - **Market Trends**: The rubber price stabilized slightly [52]. - **Related Information**: The LPR remained unchanged, and domestic policies were favorable [52]. - **Core Views**: The rubber price is expected to fluctuate in a wide range and may stabilize in the short term, but external risks should be noted [72]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Soda Ash**: The price decreased, and the inventory decreased [55]. The supply is expected to be high, and the price is restricted by inventory [55]. - **Glass**: The price decreased, and the inventory decreased. The supply and demand are expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the supply change [56]. - **Propylene** - **Market Dynamics**: The propylene price decreased [56]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price of propylene is different in different regions, and the supply and demand have changed [56]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and device changes [57]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: They fluctuated and fell, and were relatively resistant to decline compared to furnace materials [58]. - **Core Logic**: The production growth of finished products has slowed

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： （王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） 昨日，A股市场继续震荡，Wind全A下跌0.58%，成交额2.8万亿元。中证1000指数下跌1%，中证500指 数下跌0.48%，沪深300指数下跌0.33%，上证50指数下跌0.17%。近期各部位密集出台经济调控政策， 对指数形成基本面支撑。近日，发改委召开国新办发布会，表示：（1）研究设立国家级并购基金 加强 政府投资、基金布局规划；（2）综合整治"内卷式"竞争，将进一步规范地方经济促进行为；（3）正在 谋划推进一批"十五五"时期高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程等内容。上周，央行将下调各类结构性货 币政策工具利率25BP。结构性货币政策工具以定向支持社会特定融资需求为主，科技创新、普惠养 老、碳减排等近期股市热点题材均涵盖其中。本次降息体现了央行在保持总量稳定的基础上，对于特定 领域的进一步资金支持，在本轮流动性牛市中，有助于引导资金进入相关板块，推升板块估值。长期来 看，有助于相关板块降低融资成本，提升资本开始，实施更加积极的发展战略。此前，沪深交易所发布 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 特朗普政府与欧洲地缘问题持续，欧洲各国或抛售美债反制，美国最高院开审库克 | | | 长线持有 | 案，地缘溢价交易继续，流动性风险偏好尚可，短期强势。中长期，地缘秩序重塑， | | ★★ | | 不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银自身逻辑让位于黄金带来的避险属性，短期白银未被征收关税叠加交易所调保 | | 白银 | 长期持有 | 或会带来调整，但全年来看交割交易等持续，注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口 | | ★★ | | | | | 连续 | 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | | | 欧洲抛美债、日债押注黄金，金融市场或酝酿风暴，消费淡季铜累库明显，隔夜铜 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 承压回落，失守 10 万关口，建议多单移动止盈落袋，新入场等待充分回调，中长期 | | ★ | | 对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观多空交织，消费淡季高锌价对需求抑制作用明显，叠加宏观和板块情绪退潮， | | 锌 | 承压回落 | ...