Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: May 26, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Tight supply of nickel ore in Indonesia due to the rainy season affecting shipping, leading to a slight increase in nickel ore prices and stronger cost support [3] - Rising ore prices drive up the cost center of integrated production lines, providing solid support at the lower end [3] Bearish Factors - Loosening marginal supply of pure nickel, combined with high overseas inventories and stable domestic inventories, increasing upward pressure [3] - Slow recovery of downstream stainless steel demand, limited support from the new energy sector, and continuous losses of nickel sulfate enterprises [3] Trading Advisory Viewpoint - Weak supply and demand fundamentals make it difficult for nickel prices to move up or down, maintaining a short - term oscillating pattern. It is recommended to focus on range - band operations and option strategies [3] Data Summary Nickel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) decreased slightly, with weekly declines ranging from -0.10% to -0.21%. The LME nickel 3M price also dropped by -0.09% [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume decreased by 19.69% to 87,677 lots, and the open interest decreased by 25.3% to 47,440 lots [4] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 4.49% to 22,418 tons [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract increased by 671.11% to -1,735 yuan/ton [4] Stainless Steel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of stainless steel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) showed mixed trends, with some contracts declining by -0.50% to -0.65% [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume decreased by 17.99% to 109,100 lots, and the open interest decreased by 8.93% to 117,183 lots [4] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 10.19% to 140,425 tons [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract increased by 12.06% to 790 yuan/ton [4] Spot Nickel - The prices of different types of nickel (Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, electrowon nickel) showed minor fluctuations, with changes ranging from -0.04% to 0.04% [4] Inventory - **Domestic Social Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of nickel increased by 63 tons to 44,151 tons [4] - **LME Nickel Inventory**: The LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,274 tons to 198,636 tons [6] - **Stainless Steel Social Inventory**: The stainless steel social inventory decreased by 8.4 tons to 980.7 tons [6] - **Nickel Pig Iron Inventory**: The nickel pig iron inventory increased by 1,158 tons to 29,554.5 tons [6] Chart Information Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Prices - The report provides charts of the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures main contracts, LME nickel (3 - month) futures, and stainless steel futures main contracts over time [8][9] Nickel Supply and Inventory - Charts show the average price of nickel spot, China's refined nickel monthly production, total monthly supply of primary nickel (including imports), domestic social inventory of nickel (nickel plates + nickel beans), LME nickel inventory, price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (1.5% FOB), and China's port nickel ore inventory by port over time [11][12][13] Nickel Iron - Charts present the average price of high - nickel pig iron in Indonesia (Ni≥14%, arrival - tax - included), China's nickel iron monthly production, the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China, and Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production over time [16][17][19] Downstream Nickel Sulfate - Charts display the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China, the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, the premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate, China's nickel sulfate monthly production, and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors over time [21][23][24] Stainless Steel - Charts show the profit margin of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, stainless steel monthly production, and stainless steel inventory over time [26][27][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper price may experience a short - term upward movement due to supply tightness and the relative strength of US copper, but there are risks of economic slowdown in the medium term [1]. - The aluminum price is supported by the continuous decline of inventories and is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, with the possibility of the inter - month spread further widening [3]. - For lead, if the reduction in recycled production leads to a greater decline in scrap prices, it may weaken the cost support and deepen the downward space for lead prices [4]. - Zinc prices still face a certain downward risk in the medium term as the social inventory of zinc ingots accumulates [6]. - The tin price may decline as the supply is expected to loosen and the demand is weak [7][8]. - Nickel has a slightly improved short - term fundamental situation but remains bearish in the long run, and it is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may run weakly [11]. - For alumina, it is recommended to lightly short at high prices as the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change [13]. - The stainless steel market is affected by cost support and supply - demand game, and it is difficult to show a trend in the short term [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, the LME copper rose 1.84% to $9614/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78390 yuan/ton [1]. - The total inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 20,000 tons, and the Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 11,000 tons [1]. - The spot import loss of copper expanded, and the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline [1]. - The SHFE copper main contract is expected to run in the range of 77,200 - 79,500 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M in the range of $9450 - 9750/ton [1]. Aluminum - Last week, the LME aluminum fell 0.74% to $2466/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,175 yuan/ton [3]. - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 24,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons [3]. - The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to run in the range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2420 - 2520/ton [3]. Lead - Last week, the SHFE lead index rose 1.07% to 16,859 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose to $1984.5/ton [4]. - The domestic social inventory of lead increased, and the LME lead inventory was 295,800 tons [4]. Zinc - Last week, the SHFE zinc index fell 0.20% to 22,213 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose to $2695/ton [6]. - In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloy reached 1280.23 tons, with a significant increase [6]. - The zinc concentrate port inventory continued to rise, and the zinc price has a downward risk in the medium term [6]. Tin - Last week, the tin market maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price continued to oscillate at a high level [7]. - The supply of tin ore is gradually recovering but slowly, and the demand has not increased significantly [7][8]. - The SHFE tin main contract is expected to run in the range of 260,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin in the range of $34,000 - 39,000/ton [8]. Nickel - Last week, the nickel price maintained a weak oscillation [9]. - The supply of refined nickel is at a historical high, and the demand from the stainless - steel market is weak [9]. - It is recommended to short at high prices, with the SHFE nickel main contract expected to run in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - On Friday, the MMLC of lithium carbonate decreased, and the futures price also declined [11]. - The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may run weakly [11]. - The reference operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2507 contract is 60,200 - 61,600 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On May 23, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.31% to 3165 yuan/ton [13]. - The spot prices in some regions increased, and the futures inventory decreased [13]. - It is recommended to lightly short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 expected to run in the range of 2850 - 3400 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,875 yuan/ton [15]. - The spot prices in some markets remained stable, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease [15]. - The market is affected by cost support and supply - demand game, and it is difficult to show a trend in the short term [15].

Group 1 - Short-term PTA is expected to show a strong oscillating trend due to cost-driven factors, increased export stocking, and improved terminal demand [1][3] - The recent PX price has risen significantly, with the PX and naphtha price spread (PXN) exceeding $260 per ton, leading to improved profitability for industry players [1] - PTA social inventory decreased to 3.7316 million tons, down by 149,700 tons week-on-week, continuing a downward trend since March [1] Group 2 - The operating rate of downstream polyester is expected to remain around 91% to 92%, with a slight decline in production due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [2][3] - New production capacities from companies like Hong Kong Petrochemical and Helen Petrochemical are expected to be launched between June and August, potentially leading to inventory accumulation in July [2] - The overall supply-demand structure for PTA remains favorable, supported by strong cost support and continued foreign purchasing [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the cost support is weakening, the supply side has复产 expectations, the consumption side is average, and the fundamentals remain weak [3]. - For polysilicon, the consumption side shows signs of weakening, the supply side has news of joint production cuts but it is difficult to achieve in the short term, and there is still some game in the market [8][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly oscillating at a low level. The main contract 2507 opened at 7,840 yuan/ton and closed at 7,880 yuan/ton, a change of (-15) yuan/ton or (-0.19)% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 183,690 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 23, 2025, was 65,298 lots, a change of -355 lots from the previous day [1]. Supply Side - The spot price of industrial silicon has declined. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon is 8,500 - 8,800 (-50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon is 9,300 - 9,700 (-100) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon is 8,000 - 8,100 (-50) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon is 8,000 - 8,100 (-50) yuan/ton. Since May, the price of electrode raw materials has been declining, with a decrease of about 700 - 1,000 yuan/ton [2]. Consumption Side - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC is 11,300 - 11,600 (0) yuan/ton. The average price this week remained stable compared to last week. The domestic DMC market's trading center has moved up slightly, and the downstream enterprises'开工 rate has increased. The monomer enterprises' DMC shipments have improved compared to last week [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices. - Inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options: None [4]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 22, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures rebounded, opening at 35,600 yuan/ton and closing at 36,080 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 1.14% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 77,294 (73,488 the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 126,262 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while the silicon wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon weekly output was 21,500.00 tons, a change of 0.40% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 13.30GW, a change of 7.10% month - on - month [5][12][13]. Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term futures price is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation, mainly conduct range operations. - Inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options: None [9][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Weak [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Low - long [1] - PTA: Low - long [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low - long [1] - Glass: Weak [1] - Soda ash: Weak [1] - Methanol: Short on rebounds [1] - Urea: Cautious low - long [1] - Asphalt: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple chemical products. For crude oil, OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, leading to weaker prices. For products like LPG, L, PP, PVC, glass, and soda ash, their fundamentals are weak, showing downward trends. PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have improving fundamentals and present low - long opportunities. Methanol is suitable for shorting on rebounds, and urea can be considered for cautious low - long positions. Asphalt shows a sideways trend [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **行情回顾**: Overnight, international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.60%, Brent dropped 0.72%, and SC dropped 1.22% [2] - **基本逻辑**: The main drivers are the approaching summer consumption peak and OPEC+ entering the production - increasing stage. Supply - related events include the expiration of Chevron's operating license and Saudi's production and export changes. Demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted. Inventory data shows changes in various types of oil inventories in the US [3] - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion, oil supply is in surplus, with prices fluctuating between 55 - 65 dollars. In the short - term, it is weak with support, and SC is in the range of [445 - 465] [4] 3.2 LPG - **行情回顾**: On May 22, the PG main contract closed at 4150 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [6] - **基本逻辑**: The cost - end oil price is consolidating, and LPG's fundamentals are bearish. Factors include increasing commodity volume, factory inventory, and a sharp rise in warehouse receipts [7] - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, it is bearish due to OPEC+ production increase and tariff impacts. Technically, it is weak, and short positions can be partially closed. PG is in the range of [4110 - 4140] [8] 3.3 L - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 8 yuan/ton day - on - day [10] - **基本逻辑**: After the Sino - US tariff boost, the supply reduction has limited price support. Next week, production is expected to increase, and the market may be weak with a fluctuation range of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [11] - **策略推荐**: Look for short opportunities [11] 3.4 PP - **行情回顾**: The L - PP09 spread decreased by 9 yuan/ton day - on - day [13] - **基本逻辑**: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve significantly, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. It is expected to be weak in the short - term, focusing on cost and supply changes [14] - **策略推荐**: Short on rebounds [14] 3.5 PVC - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton month - on - month [15] - **基本逻辑**: The domestic PVC market is weak. Supply is expected to increase, demand is low, and cost support is weak. The price is expected to be in the range of 4650 - 4850 yuan/ton [16] - **策略推荐**: Participate in the short - term [16] 3.6 PX - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PX spot price in East China was 6625 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6744 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was - 119 yuan/ton [17] - **基本逻辑**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. The PXN spread is improved but still low, and the short - process PX - MX spread is seasonally high. The demand side may weaken due to PTA device maintenance [18] - **策略推荐**: PX is in the range of [6610, 6730] [19] 3.7 PTA - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PTA spot price in East China was 4995 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4774 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 86 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 221 yuan/ton [20] - **基本逻辑**: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improved terminal weaving. Inventory is decreasing [21] - **策略推荐**: Look for low - long opportunities [21] 3.8 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the MEG spot price in East China was 4568 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4460 yuan/ton. The EG6 - 9 spread was 55 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 108 yuan/ton [22] - **基本逻辑**: Device maintenance and low arrival volume relieve supply pressure. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improved terminal weaving. Inventory is decreasing [23] - **策略推荐**: EG is in the range of [4400, 4480] [24] 3.9 Glass - **行情回顾**: The spot market price decreased, the futures closed down, the basis widened, and the warehouse receipts decreased [25] - **基本逻辑**: Macroeconomic factors reduce market risk appetite. The glass demand is weak in the medium - term. The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the inventory is concentrated upstream and mid - stream [26] - **策略推荐**: None provided 3.10 Soda Ash - **行情回顾**: The heavy - soda spot price decreased, the futures fluctuated at a low level, the basis fluctuated slightly, the warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecasts increased [28] - **基本逻辑**: The supply reduction due to maintenance provides some support, but new capacity release may lead to oversupply. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high [29] - **策略推荐**: SA is in the range of [1260, 1290] [29] 3.11 Methanol - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the methanol spot price in East China was 2375 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2284 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 113 yuan/ton, and the port basis was 91 yuan/ton [30] - **基本逻辑**: The supply side has high pressure with high - load device operation and increasing arrival volume. The demand side improves slightly with MTO device load stabilizing. The cost support is weak [31] - **策略推荐**: MA is in the range of [2235, 2265] [31]

Group 1: Market Overview - The stainless steel market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with current prices remaining stable and trading atmosphere showing no significant improvement [2] - The macroeconomic environment has seen tariff delays largely digested, but future policy remains uncertain [2] - Nickel ore supply is tight due to rainy season impacts, affecting shipments from the Philippines and maintaining high domestic prices [2] Group 2: Supply and Production - Domestic stainless steel production is projected at 3.4899 million tons for May, a 0.4% decrease month-on-month but a 5.8% increase year-on-year [1] - The production of 300 series stainless steel is expected to be 1.776 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 7.5% year-on-year [1] - Some steel mills have reduced 300 series output while increasing 200 and 400 series production to alleviate losses, but the overall supply surplus remains unchanged [2] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing - Social inventory data shows a weekly decline, with a reduction of 30,800 tons in stainless steel inventory [2] - As of May 23, social inventory for 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 531,000 tons, down from the previous week [1] - Nickel iron prices are stable, with mainstream market quotes around 960-970 yuan per nickel, indicating pressure on domestic factory profits [2]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 23 日 LPG：成本支撑走弱，整体偏弱震荡 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 图 1：FEI 丙烷升贴水 图 2：美湾丙烷升贴水 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2023/1 2023/2 2023/3 2023/4 2023/5 2023/6 2023/7 2023/8 2023/9 2023/10 2023/11 2023/12 2024/1 2024/2 2024/3 2024/4 2024/5 2024/6 2024/7 2024/8 2024/9 2024/10 2024/11 2024/12 2025/1 2025/2 2025/3 2025/4 2025/5 USD/t AFEI丙烷升贴水 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2023/1 2023/2 2023/3 2023/4 2023/5 2023/6 2023/7 202 ...

理性预期回归挤出情绪溢价，PX、PTA估值存回调修复压力 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 05月21日，PX 主力合约收6766.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.47%，基差 为-1.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4788.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.18%，基 差为112.0元/吨。 成本端，05月21日，布油主力合约收盘65.6美元/桶。WTI收62.25美元/ 桶。 市场继续关注俄乌、美伊局势，油价短期震荡格局对成本端支撑有限。涤 丝库存压力缓解，未来关注下游纱厂备货节奏。 1/8 二、产业链价格监测 | | 数据指标 | 2025-05-21 | 2025-05-20 | 変化 | 近日涨跌幅 | 走勢 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX期货 | 主力合约价格 | 6,766 | 6,668 | 98 | 1.47% | | ...

化工日报 | 2025-05-22 PTA装置陆续重启,关注成本支撑 市场要闻与数据 在原油上涨和主流供应商减合约消息下，周三PTA期货震荡上行，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差企稳。 市场分析 成本端，市场近期关注点在宏观和地缘上反复切换，目前暂无消息指引，油价拉锯盘整，继续关注美伊核谈和俄 乌谈判方面进展。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解近期有所反弹，但季节性表现仍弱于前两年。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。3~5月上旬韩国出口 到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复情况。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN258美元/吨(环比变动-13.25美元/吨）。近期近期宏观利好提振，同时多套px装置计划外 损失增加，进一步收紧PX近月供需预期，市场货源偏紧，加之窗口内PX买气活跃，外商挺价积极，进一步支撑价 格上行，PXN低位反弹，当前已脱离低估值水平。后续5月国内PX检修装置将陆续重启，供应预计有所增加，但PTA 新装置投产下PX延续去库。整体来看，短期市场情绪好转和计划外检修增多下PXN反弹明 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 67,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 73,000 tons, an 8.96% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 599,000 tons, a 0.50% increase; the sample - enterprise inventory was 247,600 tons, a 6.53% decrease; the main - port inventory was 132,000 tons, a 0.75% decrease [8]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3,615 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [7]. - Expectation: The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 7,760 - 7,970 [8]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 21,400 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The planned output for May is 94,800 tons, a 0.62% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: The silicon - wafer output last week was 12.42 GW, a 0.56% increase; the inventory was 194,400 tons, a 7.22% increase. The production of silicon wafers is currently in a loss state. The planned output for May is 54.3 GW, a 6.94% decrease from the previous month. The battery - cell output in April was 65.55 GW, a 14.35% increase; the external - sales factory inventory of battery cells last week was 7.91 GW, a 76.56% increase. The production of battery cells is currently in a loss state. The planned output for May is 60.84 GW, a 7.18% decrease. The component output in April was 59.4 GW, a 16.47% increase; the expected component output for May is 53.03 GW, a 10.72% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 51.3 GW, an 11.74% increase; the European monthly inventory is 41.28 GW, a 14.35% decrease. The component production is currently profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N - type materials in the industry is 36,330 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 170 yuan/ton [10]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2507 contract is expected to fluctuate between 35,215 - 36,505 [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Fundamental analysis: Bullish. The cost support has increased, and the supply - side production plan has decreased [7][8]. - Basis: On May 21st, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8,600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 675 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [8]. - Inventory: The overall inventory situation is mixed, with an increase in social inventory and decreases in sample - enterprise and main - port inventories. Bearish [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20. Bearish [8]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the shorts increased. Bearish [8]. Polysilicon - Fundamental analysis: Bullish. The cost is stable, and although the supply - side production plan is decreasing, the demand is expected to recover in the medium term [10][11]. - Basis: On May 21st, the price of N - type polysilicon material was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract was 640 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 250,000 tons, a 2.72% decrease, at a low level compared to the same period in history. Neutral [12]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 07 contract closed below the MA20. Bearish [12]. - Main position: The main position is net long, and the longs decreased. Bullish [11]. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased, with the 01 contract down 1.32%, the 02 contract down 1.09%, etc. [18]. - Spot prices of various types of silicon also showed a downward trend, with the price of East - China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon down 1.15% [18]. - Inventory data showed changes in different regions, with some inventories increasing and some decreasing [18]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts increased, and the prices of various silicon - related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, with some remaining unchanged and some having small fluctuations [20]. Downstream Market Analysis Organic Silicon - DMC production: The daily production capacity utilization rate was 60.11%, remaining unchanged from the previous period and lower than the historical average [41]. - Price and cost: The price of DMC and other organic - silicon products remained stable, and the cost and profit situation showed certain characteristics, with the profit of DMC at - 301 yuan/ton [18][41]. - Inventory: The monthly inventory of DMC was 105,000 tons, a 7.49% decrease [18]. Aluminum Alloy - Price: The daily price of SMM aluminum - alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,400 yuan/ton [18]. - Supply and demand: The monthly production of primary - aluminum - based aluminum - alloy ingots increased by 4.45%, while the monthly production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots decreased by 5.28% [18]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of aluminum - alloy ingots was 13,900 tons, a 5.44% decrease [18]. Polysilicon - Cost: The average cost of the polysilicon industry remained stable at 36.33 yuan/kg [20]. - Price: The prices of various polysilicon products showed a downward trend, with the price of granular silicon down 1.52% [20]. - Supply and demand: The supply and demand situation showed certain changes, with the monthly supply increasing by 6.66% and the monthly consumption increasing by 7.03% [20]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory was 250,000 tons, a 2.72% decrease, and the domestic component inventory increased by 11.74% [20].