Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate continues to rise, reaching 148.5100 with a gain of 0.09% as of the latest report [1] - Japan's core inflation rate for July decreased to 3.1% from 3.3% in June, but remains above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, leading to expectations of potential interest rate hikes in the coming months [1] - The U.S. manufacturing and services sectors showed strong activity, with the August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 53.3, significantly above the expected 49.5, indicating robust growth in manufacturing [1] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.339% and the 2-year yield to 3.798%, driven by concerns over persistent inflation and a weak labor market as highlighted in the FOMC meeting minutes [2] - The market is cautious about potential hawkish signals from Fed Chair Powell, which could indicate a preference for maintaining high interest rates or further rate hikes to control inflation [2] Group 3 - The USD/JPY is currently in a consolidation phase, with Bollinger Bands indicating fluctuations around the mid-band of 147.797 [3] - A breakout above the upper band at 149.604 could lead to further gains, while a drop below the lower band at 145.990 may accelerate declines [3] - The MACD shows signs of consolidation, with a lack of directional breakout, and the RSI is at 51.585, indicating a neutral market sentiment [3]

Group 1: Report's Overall Information - Report authors include Yang Lina, Hu Bin, and Liang Haikuan [1] - Report is a daily strategy for non - ferrous metals issued on August 21, 2025 [1][3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The non - ferrous metal sector continues to oscillate. The market is in a state of sorting and repeating under the situation of strong expectations and weak reality. The focus remains on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. If hawkish information persists, there is a risk of the non - ferrous metal sector weakening further [11] - For specific metals: Copper is expected to see an upward shift in its price center; zinc has a mid - term short - selling opportunity; the aluminum industry chain is generally bearish; tin is suitable for high - selling and low - buying; lead can be bought slightly at low prices; nickel and stainless steel are bearish in the mid - term [3][4][5][7][8] Group 3: Investment Ratings (Not Mentioned in the Report) Group 4: Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metal sector continues to oscillate. The market is affected by China's monetary policy, real - estate policies, geopolitical issues, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The market remains cautious before the geopolitical situation becomes clear [11] - **Investment Recommendations for Specific Metals** - **Copper**: With the improvement of supply and demand fundamentals and the approaching of the peak season and Fed rate cuts, the price center is expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips [3][13] - **Zinc**: With increasing supply and weak demand, it is recommended to short on rallies in the mid - term [4][13] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly this week. It is recommended to short on rallies or wait and see [5][13][14] - **Tin**: With a pattern of weak supply and demand, it is suitable for high - selling and low - buying [6][14] - **Lead**: With weak prices and slow recovery of demand, it is recommended to buy slightly at low prices and use a wide - range option double - selling strategy [7][15] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel has an oversupply situation, and stainless steel has weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the mid - term [8][15] Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Prices and Changes**: Copper closed at 78,540 yuan/ton with a 0.13% decline; zinc at 22,240 yuan/ton with a 0.11% decline; aluminum at 20,590 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase; etc. [16] Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different net long - short positions and changes. For example, TV (SI2511) has a strong short - position of the main force, and its net short - position is 46,925, with the short - position of the main force decreasing [18] Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes**: Copper's Yangtze River spot price is 78,850 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase; zinc's Yangtze River 0 zinc spot average price is 22,240 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase; etc. [19][21] Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - **Copper**: The report provides charts on inventory changes, copper concentrate smelting fees, and the relationship between the US dollar index and copper prices [23][25] - **Zinc**: Charts on inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fees, etc. are presented [27] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Charts on inventory and price relationships, spot premium and discount trends are provided [29][35] - **Other Metals**: Similar industry - chain - related charts are provided for tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and casting aluminum alloy [37][41][44] Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report presents charts on the ratio of domestic to foreign prices, premium and discount relationships, and price differences between different contracts for various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, tin, etc. [56][57][59] Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For different non - ferrous metals like copper, zinc, and aluminum, the report provides charts on historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, option trading volume and open - interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open - interest [72][74][77]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes reveal internal divisions and complexities regarding the economic outlook, with a notable debate on interest rate cuts [2][3] - Only two decision-makers, Bowman and Waller, supported a 25 basis point rate cut, highlighting concerns over potential labor market weaknesses [2][3] - The majority of decision-makers prefer to maintain the federal funds rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, believing it is suitable for the current economic conditions [2][3] Group 2 - Recent employment data supports Bowman and Waller's concerns, showing July job additions significantly below market expectations and an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate [3] - The labor force participation rate has dropped to its lowest level since the end of 2022, and revisions to May and June job data indicate a reduction of over 250,000 jobs [3] - This historical data revision challenges the optimistic market outlook regarding the strength of the labor market and complicates the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts [3] Group 3 - Silver prices are experiencing slight declines, currently reported at $37.82 per ounce, with fluctuations between $37.77 and $37.97 [1] - Technical analysis indicates that silver is forming a symmetrical triangle, with potential upward movement if it breaks above the 100-period moving average [4] - A confirmed breakout above the triangle could target levels of $38.20 and $38.74, while failure to clear the 100-period moving average may lead to bearish trends [4]

今日周五(8月22日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于38.16一线下方，今日开盘于38.13美元/盎司，截至发稿，现货白银暂 报38.12美元/盎司，下跌0.02%，最高触及38.19美元/盎司，最低下探38.06美元/盎司，目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向 震荡走势。 美联储正站在一个关键的十字路口。一方面，劳动力市场放缓的迹象和特朗普的降息压力要求货币政策更宽松；另一方 面，通胀率仍高于目标，且服务业通胀的上升为降息敲响了警钟。博斯蒂克、施密德、古尔斯比和柯林斯的不同表态反 映了美联储内部对经济前景的分歧：是优先抗击通胀，还是适度宽松以支持经济增长？这一问题不仅关乎美国经济，也 将对全球市场产生深远影响。 杰克逊霍尔研讨会为美联储提供了一个重要舞台，鲍威尔的讲话可能为市场提供方向感。然而，无论美联储最终选择何 种路径，政策的连续性和稳定性都将是关键。正如博斯蒂克所言，反复无常的政策可能动摇公众对美联储的信心，而施 密德和古尔斯比的谨慎态度则提醒我们，通胀的"最后一公里"往往最为艰难。柯林斯的开放态度则为市场保留了一线希 望，降息的可能性并未完全消失。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 白银市场昨日开盘在37.924的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts has converged, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to 75%. The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a three - year high, and Fed officials' hawkish remarks have put pressure on the market. Domestically, the A - share market's risk appetite may have reached a short - term peak, and the bond market is expected to start a recovery. [2][3] - Most commodities are expected to show a volatile trend. Gold and silver prices are likely to remain volatile, waiting for Powell's speech. Copper, zinc, lead, tin, and other metals are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations. Aluminum and alumina are expected to oscillate, and lithium carbonate is in a game - based volatile stage. Crude oil is expected to be weak after a short - term technical correction, and agricultural products such as soybean meal and palm oil are also expected to fluctuate. [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US 8 - month manufacturing PMI reached 53.3, a three - year high, with inflation pressure increasing. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have dampened the market's expectation of a September rate cut. The dollar has risen, and the US bond yield has increased. [2] - Domestic: The A - share market weakened after a high opening on Thursday, with the trading volume remaining at 2.4 trillion. The risk appetite has declined, and the bond market has a chance to recover. [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold futures on COMEX fell 0.15% to $3383.5 per ounce, and silver futures rose 0.87% to $38.1 per ounce. The better - than - expected US PMI data and Fed officials' remarks have put pressure on gold prices. The market is waiting for Powell's speech, and it is expected that gold and silver prices will remain volatile. [4][5] 3.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract maintained a volatile trend. The US manufacturing showed signs of improvement, but there are concerns about long - term demand after the tariff policy. The Fed's internal differences remain large, and the Codelco has lowered its copper production forecast. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile in the short term. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20590 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased. The good performance of the US and European manufacturing PMIs has improved the overseas demand expectation. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate in the current range. [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 3124 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The supply is slightly increasing, and consumption is stable. It is expected that alumina will continue to show a weak - oscillating trend. [10] 3.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation. The better - than - expected US manufacturing PMI and Fed officials' remarks have put pressure on zinc prices. However, the decline in zinc prices has led to increased downstream purchases, and it is expected that zinc prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. [11] 3.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation. The inflow of delivery goods has led to a slight decline in inventory, and the inverted price difference between refined and scrap lead provides support for lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [12] 3.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract showed a weak - oscillating trend. The supply of tin ore and scrap tin is tight, and the low LME inventory provides support, but consumption is weak. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [13] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract rebounded from a low level. The supply is marginally loose, and the demand side has different performances. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term. [14][15] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are in a game - based volatile stage. Although the spot market has improved, the supply increase may exceed the demand, and it is recommended to wait and see. [16][17] 3.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The cost pressure of nickel iron has eased slightly, and the demand for stainless steel is limited. The cost of nickel sulfate is high, and the demand has resilience. It is expected that nickel prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to Powell's speech. [18][19] 3.12 Crude Oil - Crude oil oscillated strongly. Geopolitical factors are heating up, and it is expected that oil prices will be weak after a short - term technical correction. [20] 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract both declined. The US soybean is affected by drought, and the new - crop export sales exceeded expectations. The market expects the state reserve to release soybeans in November, and it is expected that the domestic soybean meal will oscillate in a range. [21][22] 3.14 Palm Oil - The palm oil 01 contract declined. The production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of August increased slightly, and Indonesia's inventory in June continued to decline. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate and adjust. [23][24] 3.15 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and other data of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver on August 22, 2025. [26] 3.16 Industry Data Perspective - The document presents the data changes of various metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, gold, silver, and related products including steel, iron ore, and agricultural products from August 20 to August 21, 2025, including prices, inventories, and price differences. [27][32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - Gold and silver are oscillating, and the market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Last week's unexpectedly high US inflation data pressured gold and silver, while positive signals from recent US - Russia negotiations eased geopolitical risks. The July non - farm payrolls data was below expectations and the previous value was significantly revised down. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, but there are divided views within the Fed, and Trump's personnel appointments affect market expectations. Trade negotiations have made progress in multiple aspects, but the overall trade environment is still deteriorating. The "Big and Beautiful" bill has increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit. The continuous increase in gold holdings by the People's Bank of China provides long - term support for gold, but gold is hesitant to rise at current high prices. Overall, gold and silver may show an oscillating trend as the expectation of interest rate cuts intensifies [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 776.08 and 778.06 respectively, with daily changes of 0.96 and 0, and daily change rates of 0.12% and 0.00%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9233.00 and 9253.00 respectively, with daily changes of 71.00 and 69.00, and daily change rates of 0.77% and 0.75% [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 183215 and 133322 respectively, and the trading volumes are 128755 and 23298 respectively. The positions of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 307098 and 228190 respectively, and the trading volumes are 311338 and 67972 respectively [2] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 4.42 and - 6.40 respectively, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 89.00 and - 109.00 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 771.66 and 770.79 respectively, with daily changes of 1.83 and - 1.59, and daily change rates of 0.24% and - 0.21%. The previous day's closing price of London Gold (in dollars per ounce) was 3338.935, with a daily change of - 8.4 and a daily change rate of - 0.25%. The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Silver T + D and London Silver were 9144.00 and 38.12 respectively, with daily changes of 122.00 and 0.27, and daily change rates of 1.35% and 0.70% [2] - **Price Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510,沪银2512 - 沪银2510, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 1.98, 20, 84.39, 7.19, and 7.46 respectively, compared with previous values of 2.08, 22, 85.33, 7.15, and 7.41 [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver are 36,642 kg and 1,115,055 kg respectively, with changes of 60.00 kg and - 25,144.00 kg compared to the previous values. The current inventories of COMEX gold and silver are 38,573,764 and 508,499,193 respectively, with a change of 9,952.03 for COMEX gold and 0 for COMEX silver [2] Related Assets - **Values and Changes**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 98.6526, 6370.17, 4.33, 67.67, and 7.1833 respectively, with changes of 0.42%, - 0.40%, 0.93%, 0.01%, and 0.03% compared to the previous values [2] Derivatives - **Holdings and Changes**: The current holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons each, with an increase of 1.00 ton compared to the previous values. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 compared to the previous values [2] Macroeconomic Information - **Trade Agreement**: The EU and the US issued a joint statement detailing a new trade agreement reached in July. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber. The EU promised to cancel tariffs on US industrial products, provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products, and plans to purchase $750 billion worth of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion worth of US artificial intelligence chips by 2028 [3] - **Renewable Energy Stance**: US President Trump criticized renewable energy as a "century - long scam". Even though the electricity demand in some US regions significantly exceeds supply, the US government will not approve new wind or photovoltaic projects. Trump blames the rising electricity prices in the US on renewable energy [3] - **PMI Data**: The preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The service industry PMI slightly dropped to 55.4, but the significant rebound in manufacturing pushed the composite PMI to a 9 - month high of 55.4 [3] - **Unemployment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, higher than the market expectation of 225,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [3] - **Real Estate Data**: The National Association of Realtors in the US stated that the annualized sales of second - hand homes in July increased by 2% to 4.01 million units, higher than the market expectation of 3.92 million units. The median price of second - hand homes increased by 0.2% year - on - year, the slowest increase in two years [3]

今日周五(8月22日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于9229一线上方，今日开盘于9187元/千克，截至发稿，白银期货暂报 9246元/千克，上涨0.95%，最高触及9254元/千克，最低下探9187元/千克，目前来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走 势。 【要闻速递】 周四，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，仍预计今年仅降息一次，但承认经济不确定性大，政策需单向推进以维持公 信力。他指出当前利率"略微限制性"，经济增长相对温和，但明年可能反弹。 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德则强调无急于降息必要，通胀更接近3%而非2%，需警惕降息对通胀预期的负面影响。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比对降息持谨慎态度，担心服务业通胀上升并非关税所致，而波士顿联储主席柯林斯则暗示对9 月降息持开放态度，预计通胀年底前继续上升后在2026年回落。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克也认为现在不是降息时机，通胀问题持续。 这些观点的碰撞反映出美联储面临的困境：劳动力市场放缓vs.通胀压力上升，加上特朗普政府的关税政策和对美联储 的压力（如调查理事库克），让政策路径更难预测。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银周四走出上涨空间，当前收高至9270，趋势力度明显，周五可以继续持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The rebound of US consumer - end inflation reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts. Although the EU intends to promote a peace agreement among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, the continuous gold purchases by global central banks may limit the downside space of precious metal prices. It is recommended that investors wait for price drops to lay out long positions [1]. Summary According to Related Content 1. Market Data - **Precious Metals in Shanghai**: For Shanghai gold, on August 21, 2025, the closing price was 775.12 yuan/gram, with a daily change of 2.44 yuan and a weekly change of - 0.68 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 31,854 compared to the previous week. For Shanghai silver, the closing price was 9162 yuan/kg, with a daily change of - 42 yuan and a weekly change of 120 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 203,755 compared to the previous week [1]. - **International Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures' closing price on August 21, 2025, was 3383.50 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of - 8.70 dollars and a weekly change of - 23.50 dollars. The trading volume decreased by 12,817 compared to the previous week. London gold spot price was 3364.40 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of - 6.35 dollars and a weekly change of - 26.10 dollars. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 38.10 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 0.20 dollars and a weekly change of - 0.45 dollars. London silver spot price was 37.57 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 0.49 dollars and a weekly change of - 1.04 dollars [1]. - **Other Market Data**: The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.33%, with a daily change of 0.04% and a weekly change of 0.09%. The US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 1.94%. The US 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate was 2.39%, with a daily change of 0.04% and a weekly change of 0.02%. The dollar index was 98.2406, with a daily change of 0.41 and a weekly change of 0.86. The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,771.0989, with a daily change of 4.89 and a weekly change of 74.33 [1]. 2. Important Information - **US Information**: A 2026 Fed voter said there may be no rate cut in September, and a 2025 voter is hesitant about action. Fed Chair candidate Brad suggested a 100 - basis - point rate cut this year starting in September. The US Department of Justice pressured to remove Fed Governor Cook, and Trump urged her to resign voluntarily. The US August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 58.3, hitting a new high in over three years. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars in short - term Treasury bonds in the third quarter. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool is approaching zero. US import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in the July PPI and core CPI year - on - year rates. The August consumer inflation expectations for one - year and five - year are 4.9% and 3.9% respectively, higher than expected and the previous values [1]. - **European Information**: The European Central Bank has temporarily paused rate cuts, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2.8%. The eurozone (Germany) July CPI year - on - year rate was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but the same as the previous value. The eurozone, Germany, and France's August manufacturing PMIs were 50.5/49.9/49.9 respectively, higher than expected and the previous values. The European Central Bank may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **UK Information**: The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August and will continue to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction speed later. The UK's August CPI (core CPI) year - on - year rate was 3.6% (3.7%), and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and the previous values. The August S&P manufacturing (services) PMI was 47.3 (53.6), lower (higher) than expected and the previous values. The Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japanese Information**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. Japan (Tokyo) July CPI (CPI) year - on - year rate was 3.1% (3.1%), meeting expectations but lower than the previous value. The second - quarter GDP quarterly rate was 0.3%, higher than expected and the previous value. The US Treasury Secretary urged the Bank of Japan to raise rates, and there is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, with the earliest possible time in October [1]. 3. Trading Strategy - Due to the rebound of US consumer - end inflation reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, the downside space of precious metal prices is limited. Investors are advised to wait for price drops to lay out long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3200 - 3300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3400 - 3500 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 8500 - 8700 yuan/kg and the resistance level around 9100 - 9500 yuan/kg [1].

Group 1 - The U.S. capital markets are undergoing a complex price restructuring, with the S&P 500 index down 0.2% but only 1.1% away from its historical closing high set on August 14 [1] - Current market pricing reflects strong economic expectations, but this optimism may face challenges from real data [1] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting indicated uncertainty regarding the impact of new tariffs on inflation, despite a recent upward trend in commodity price inflation [3] Group 2 - Economic growth slowdown in the first half of the year was primarily due to weak consumer growth and a decline in residential investment, while the labor market remains robust [3] - The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF has decreased by 0.1% this quarter, while the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF has dropped by 1.3%, contrasting with a 3.1% increase in the S&P 500 index [3] - The tightening of U.S. immigration policies and increased tariff barriers are seen as having a more significant negative impact on economic growth than the potential stimulus from the Inflation Reduction Act [3] Group 3 - Current expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may be overly optimistic, with the specific impact of tariffs on inflation still needing observation [4] - The Federal Reserve emphasizes a data-dependent flexible strategy, with most participants agreeing that current monetary policy is moderately restrictive [4] - The market widely anticipates a potential interest rate cut cycle starting in September, but policymakers are more focused on the sustainability of inflation decline and the actual impact of trade policies on price transmission [4]

Core Insights - Despite a slowdown in the pace of price growth, Japan's consumer inflation remains significantly above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, driven by persistently high rice prices, leading to increased market speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year [1][6][7] Inflation Data - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July rose by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.3% in the previous month, while economists had expected a 3.0% increase [1][7] - A deeper price measure, excluding both energy and fresh food, remained stable at a 3.4% increase, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in Japan [1][4] Economic Commentary - Economists emphasize that a decline in core CPI does not necessarily indicate weakening inflation, as food prices continue to rise, reflecting companies' willingness to pass on costs to consumers [4][8] - The recent drop in energy prices contributed to the overall inflation slowdown, but underlying price pressures remain strong due to rising rice prices and labor costs [4][5] Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan have increased, with a 51% probability of a rate increase by the end of October, up from 45% prior to the inflation data release [7][8] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds reached its highest level since 2008, driven by market bets on rising policy rates [7] Political Context - Rising living costs have led to significant public dissatisfaction, impacting the recent elections and putting pressure on Prime Minister Kishida's government to consider more fiscal measures to support consumers [5][8] Future Projections - Economists predict that while the Bank of Japan could raise rates based on inflation data, they may wait to assess wage growth dynamics and the impact of monetary policy on global markets, with December or January being more likely for a rate hike, though October remains a possibility [8]