Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has undergone a cyclical rise, with certain sectors and styles remaining undervalued, making Chinese assets attractive for global allocation in 2026. Key investment opportunities are identified in four main areas: globally competitive manufacturing leaders, industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, sectors with low valuations and potential for significant fundamental changes, and long-term high-return industries with mismatched valuations [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The current A-share market is experiencing active trading volumes and turnover rates, but there is a notable differentiation among stocks, presenting both opportunities and risks. Some stocks are becoming expensive, while others, particularly in real estate and domestic demand, remain undervalued [3]. - The investment strategy for equities should focus on safety margins and certainty, avoiding blind speculation on volatility. The U.S. economy is not performing well, and potential monetary easing could occur in response to the upcoming mid-term elections, which may influence domestic fiscal policies [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Four key investment opportunities for 2026 are highlighted: 1. Long-term focus on globally competitive manufacturing leaders, including sectors like power equipment, batteries, electric vehicles, home appliances, chemicals, and machinery. Observations from Southeast Asia indicate a significant gap in infrastructure and supply chains compared to China, reinforcing confidence in China's manufacturing competitiveness [5]. 2. Industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, such as real estate, aquaculture, chemicals, and light industry, are expected to enhance their global market positions and profitability [5]. 3. Sectors with low valuations and potential for substantial fundamental changes, such as chemicals, are noted for their past performance shifts, similar to coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals in previous years [6]. 4. Long-term high-return industries with severe valuation mismatches, including airport and airline services, insurance, and non-liquor food sectors, are highlighted for their high return on equity (ROE) despite low stock attention [6]. Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include persistent inflation and sector-specific risks. The undervaluation of the RMB may pressure export industries, and inflation could pose significant risks to the stock market in the latter half of the year. Additionally, long-term risks associated with AI, including its impact on labor and technological competition, warrant attention [6].

▲ATFX图 从技术结构看，黄金整体仍运行在清晰的中期上升趋势中。图表显示，金价自 11 月以来沿着上升趋势线稳步抬升，前期下行趋势线已被有效突破并转化 为中期结构支撑，确认趋势由整理转为单边上行。近期金价在快速拉升后出现剧烈回调，但回落并未破坏上升趋势线，显示抛压更多来自高位获利了结， 而非趋势性反转。目前市场正围绕关键支撑区间反复博弈。 ATFX：在 2025 年年末阶段，全球金融市场的注意力重新集中到美联储政策信号之上。本周即将公布的 FOMC 会议纪要，正值黄金价格刷新历史高位之 后，成为左右短线情绪与趋势延续性的关键变量。在通胀回落、就业走弱与政策分歧加剧的背景下，市场试图从纪要细节中判断，美联储当前的"观望姿 态"究竟意味着降息周期接近尾声，还是为后续进一步宽松保留空间。 | ▲ATFX图 | | --- | 从宏观环境看，美国经济正在释放出明显的后周期特征。通胀已较年中显著降温，但仍未完全回到美联储 2% 的目标区间。核心 PCE 维持在约 2.8%，11 月 CPI 同比约 2.7%，显示去通胀进程正在推进，但服务业通胀的黏性依旧存在，使政策层对金融条件过早放松保持谨慎。与此同时，就业市场的降 ...

第二个主题是特朗普试图稳定民心，向民众描绘经济回暖的前景。他在讲话中宣称"通胀已经停止"，并 承诺2026年美国经济将大幅好转，商品价格会下降，贷款利率会进一步降低，政府还将公布一项历史上 最具魄力的住房改革计划。同时，他还将经济复苏与大规模驱逐移民的政策挂钩，认为移民的撤离将为 美国人创造更多的就业和住房机会。然而，特朗普的这些言论很快引发了质疑。根据《纽约时报》记者 Katie Rogers的评论，这场讲话让事实核查员们忙得不可开交。根据12月19日美国劳工统计局的数据， 尽管通胀增长有所放缓，但美国的CPI同比增长依然达到2.7%，远没有达到"通胀停止"的标准。而特朗 普关于商品价格下跌和贷款利率降低的承诺，目前也没有任何政府文件作为佐证，更多的是一种前瞻性 的口头承诺。 哈喽，大家好！今天小墨要分析一下特朗普最近全国讲话风格的巨大变化，探讨其中的内容争议以及背 后的现实压力。 大家熟悉特朗普的人都知道，他的演讲风格向来自由奔放、充满激情。无论是竞选集 会，还是其他公开场合，他总是随性地脱稿发言，偶尔还会说出一些让人意外的话。不过，12月17日的 全国电视讲话却让人大吃一惊——这位政坛"网红"竟然做出了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of the Xinyue Bay project in Shenzhen has led to a staggering sales figure of 10 billion yuan within just two hours, indicating a significant surge in luxury real estate demand in the region, despite broader market challenges [2][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The opening of Xinyue Bay set a new price ceiling in Shenzhen's luxury market, with an average price of 244,000 yuan per square meter and a peak price of 380,000 yuan per square meter, surpassing previous records [2][4]. - The luxury real estate market in Shenzhen has seen a rapid increase in activity, with several high-profile projects, including the recent sales of 13 billion yuan at the Shenzhen Bay Luanxi and 5.3 billion yuan at the GCC Lian Tai Chao Zong Wan, contributing to a total of nearly 30 billion yuan in just one month [4][9]. Group 2: Historical Context - The Xinyue Bay site was previously owned by Kaisa Group, which acquired it for 5.8 billion yuan in 2013, but faced financial difficulties that nearly left the project abandoned [5][6]. - The "service trust" model employed by creditors, such as CITIC, has allowed for the restructuring of the project, isolating previous debts and enabling a profitable sale, which necessitated high pricing to cover costs [7]. Group 3: Buyer Behavior - Wealthy buyers are aggressively purchasing luxury properties not necessarily due to confidence in the real estate market, but as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, viewing these properties as a safe haven for their capital [11]. - The recent lifting of the "70/90" policy has made it easier for buyers to purchase larger units without the complications of dual ownership requirements, further fueling demand for high-end properties [8][10].

今日周二（12月30日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于986.14附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂986.14元/ 克，跌幅2.98%，最高触及1007.12元/克，最低下探970.02元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 市场最忌不确定性，联储主席换人前景已引发债市、汇市与股市波动。投资者须权衡多种情景——特朗 普或提名鸽派低利率支持者，亦可能选鹰派抗通胀者，不同选择将影响借贷成本与增长。 此时经济挑战叠加：多领域通胀仍高于2%目标，增长显露放缓迹象。联储须在就业与物价稳定间平 衡，两者常冲突。领导层更迭或改变优先序，在政策明朗前，企业投资与招聘或暂缓。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 从日线结构看，沪金自前期低点启动后，整体沿稳步抬高的上升通道运行，沪金价格始终稳于中期均线 之上，趋势方向依旧偏多。 目前沪金价格在978一线附近横盘整理，属前一轮拉升后的正常技术性消化。K线形态上，高位未现放 量长阴或连续破位，显示抛压可控，多头并未撤离。 要点在于，中期技术优势仍未改变，短期需关注970–965区域支撑的有效性。 美联储依法独立运作，不受直接政治干预，这一原则历 ...

这一在白宫新闻发布会上发布的消息迅速在金融市场与政策圈引发震动。特朗普特别提到，不排除解雇 鲍威尔的可能性，这直接引发外界对美联储独立性这一核心原则的根本性质疑。眼下美国经济正处在应 对通胀压力与利率抉择的关键节点，领导层的不确定性势必带来深远影响。 作为全球最具影响力的经济职位之一，美联储主席人选将直接决定利率水平、就业状况与价格稳定。鲍 威尔的本届任期按惯例应至2026年5月，但总统通常会提前数月公布连任或新提名，此次提前明确时间 表显然带有重大政治考量。 摘要今日周二(12月30日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4369.47美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4367.89美元/盎司，涨幅0.84%，最高上探至4369.47美元/盎司，最低触及4322.53美元/盎司。目前来 看，国际黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 今日周二(12月30日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4369.47美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4367.89美元/盎司，涨幅0.84%，最高上探至4369.47美元/盎司，最低触及4322.53美元/盎司。目前来 看，国际黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美国总统唐纳德.特朗普本周宣布， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints -受股市行情带动，LPR保持不变，宽财政强于宽货币预期、配置盘犹豫与交易盘主导，同时美联储降息预期延续、全球贸易不确定性上升增加了外资流入的不确定性，期债震荡走跌 [3] -当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地 [2] -在需求走弱与政策宽松预期并存背景下，后续稳增长仍更依赖货币侧发力 [2] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators -物价指标方面，中国CPI（月度）环比 -0.10%，同比 0.70%；中国PPI（月度）环比 0.10%，同比 -2.20% [9] -经济指标（月度更新）中，社会融资规模 440.07 万亿元，环比 +2.35 万亿元，环比变化率 +0.54%；M2同比 8.00%，环比 -0.20%，环比变化率 -2.44%；制造业PMI 49.20%，环比 +0.20%，环比变化率 +0.41% [10] -经济指标（日度更新）中，美元指数 98.00，环比 -0.06，环比变化率 -0.06%；美元兑人民币（离岸）7.0081，环比 +0.006，环比变化率 +0.08%；SHIBOR 7天 1.56，环比 +0.11，环比变化率 +7.60%等 [10] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market -展示了国债期货主力连续合约收盘价走势、各品种涨跌幅情况、各品种沉淀资金走势、持仓量占比、净持仓占比（前20名）、多空持仓比（前20名）、国开债 - 国债利差、国债发行情况等图表 [12][15][17][21] 3. Overview of Money Market Liquidity -展示了Shibor利率走势、同业存单（AAA）到期收益率走势、银行间质押式回购成交统计、地方债发行情况等图表 [26][28] 4. Spread Overview -展示了国债期货各品种跨期价差走势、现券期限利差与期货跨品种价差（4*TS - T、2*TS - TF、2*TF - T、3*T - TL、2*TS - 3*TF + T）等图表 [33][37][40][41] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures -展示了两年期国债期货主力合约隐含利率与国债到期收益率、TS主力合约IRR与资金利率、TS主力合约近三年基差走势、近三年净基差走势等图表 [39][42][49] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures -展示了五年期国债期货主力合约隐含利率与国债到期收益率、TF主力合约IRR与资金利率、TF主力合约近三年基差走势、近三年净基差走势等图表 [53][57] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures -展示了十年期国债期货主力合约隐含收益率与国债到期收益率、T主力合约IRR与资金利率、T主力合约近三年基差走势、近三年净基差走势等图表 [60][63] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures -展示了三十年期国债期货主力合约隐含收益率与国债到期收益率、TL主力合约IRR与资金利率、TL主力合约近三年基差走势、近三年净基差走势等图表 [67][70][73] Strategies -单边策略：回购利率回落，国债期货价格震荡 [4] -套利策略：关注2603基差回落 [4] -套保策略：中期存在调整压力，空头可采用远月合约适度套保 [4]

Group 1 - The core issue facing the French economy is the rising sensitivity to prices among consumers, leading to cautious spending behavior during the holiday season, reflecting deeper structural problems [1] - France's public debt is projected to reach 117.4% of GDP by the end of Q3 2025, with a fiscal deficit forecasted at 5.5% of GDP, significantly above the EU's 3% limit, indicating severe fiscal pressure [2] - The French manufacturing sector is struggling, with the share of manufacturing in GDP currently at about 9%, far below the EU average of 15%, and a concerning trend of more factory closures than openings [3] Group 2 - Rising living costs are suppressing consumer spending, with inflation rates around 1% since February, but the actual cost of living is perceived to be much higher, particularly in housing and food [4] - Analysts note that while overall inflation is decreasing due to falling energy prices, food and housing costs continue to rise, and wage growth is lagging behind inflation, posing a significant challenge for consumer purchasing power [5]

澳大利亚储备银行12月会议纪要显示，董事会成员对当前货币政策限制性是否足够的不确定性上升。政策制定者提及，通胀若未达预期缓解，将收紧政策， 重点关注1月28日发布的第四季度CPI报告。 分析师认为，第四季度核心通胀数据超预期可能引发澳储行2月3日会议加息。 从汇率走势可能性来看，随着市场持续预期美联储在2026年将再实施两次降息，美元可能面临一定压力，这一因素或推动澳元兑美元汇率上行。市场交易员 大概率会重点关注今日晚些时候公布的联邦公开市场委员会12月会议纪要。 在美联储降息预期，当前美元仍保持稳定。用于衡量美元对六种主要货币价值的美元指数，目前呈上涨态势，写作时段交易于98.00左右水平。 澳元兑美元汇率小幅走高，周二反弹逼近14个月高点0.6727。 市场对澳大利亚储备银行加息预期增强，支撑澳元。澳大利亚新年假期影响下，市场预计后续交易量清淡。 彭博社周日报道，中国财政部计划扩大先进制造业、科技创新、人力资本发展等重点领域定向投资。该公告发布于年终会议概述明年财政政策重点后。澳大 利亚与中国贸易关系紧密，上述财政政策对中国经济的影响或传导至澳元汇率。 澳大利亚通胀数据显示，2025年10月整体通胀率从9 ...

Group 1 - The dollar index showed a slight increase, closing at 98.01, with a yearly decline of approximately 9%, marking the worst annual performance since 2017 due to expectations of easing policies, narrowing interest rate differentials, and credit concerns [1][2] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points throughout the year, bringing the benchmark rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, which significantly weakened the attractiveness of dollar assets [2] - The U.S. economy demonstrated resilience with a Q3 GDP growth rate of 4.3%, driven by strong consumer spending, although there are concerns about a potential government shutdown affecting economic activity in Q4 [2] Group 2 - Institutions predict that the dollar index will continue its downward trend in 2026, potentially declining by another 3% due to ongoing global interest rate differentials and the Fed's easing stance [3] - Market participants are advised to monitor year-end fund reallocation trends and key data such as U.S. non-farm payrolls and inflation early next year, as these will influence the dollar's trajectory [3]