[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 8 Jun 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 宽幅震荡升级在即，继续回避微盘股和新消费风险 Broad Consolidation About to Intensify; Remain Cautious on Micro-Caps and New Consumer Names 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为当前市场处于宽幅震荡中，回调仍未结束，尤其需要规避短期过热的A股小微盘股及港股新消费板 块。本周一，受中美贸易摩擦影响，恒生指数早盘一度跌近2.7%，恒生科技最多跌3.1%，两者从5月高点分别累计 回撤5.2%、8.9%。这波下跌充分释放了市场对中美贸易不确定性的担忧，因此市场进入宽幅震荡以来 ...

2025 年 06 月 08 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 稳中求进，静待成长良机 策略周报 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 1、《关税超预期调降，资金为何转向防 御？—策略周报》2025-05-18 2、《关税窗口期应如何博弈？—策略周 报》2025-05-11 3、《政治局会议临近，应如何布局？— 策略周报》2025-04-20 4、《关税对 A 股哪些行业影响较大？— 策略周报》2025-04-13 5、《关税迷雾叠加美股震荡，资产应如 何配置？—策略周报》2025-03-30 投资要点 分析师：郝一凡 【债市方面】未来利率仍有望创新低，关注左侧机会。今年债市收益率呈"慢 上快下"格局，难以捕捉右侧机会，建议在具有性价比的位置耐心配置。从 10 年期国债收益率的角度看，一季度机会配置点在 1.8%上方，极端点位触及 1.9%，考虑到央行持续 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a cautious approach in the current market environment, suggesting a focus on defensive sectors such as banking due to ongoing tariff negotiations and economic pressures [3][10][12] - It highlights the potential for bond yields to reach new lows, recommending patience in positioning for left-side opportunities, particularly when the 10-year government bond yield approaches 1.7% after a 10 basis point rate cut [3][12] - The report notes a significant recovery in the domestic stock market, driven by short-term high-elasticity targets, with small-cap stocks becoming the core focus for capital [10][12] Group 2 - The report outlines key events impacting the market, including the U.S. tariff increase on steel and aluminum, and the People's Bank of China's liquidity support measures [9][10] - It tracks market performance indicators, noting a rise in average daily trading volume to 12,088.54 billion yuan, indicating increased trading activity and investor interest [22] - The report anticipates continued recovery in U.S. markets, driven by stable earnings from tech giants and a favorable environment during the tariff policy window [13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of building a unified consumer market in China, emphasizing the government's ongoing commitment to this initiative since 2021 [2][3] - The author highlights the shift in Guangdong's economic model from export and investment-driven to consumption-driven, suggesting that this transition is crucial for sustainable growth [2] - The article introduces the concept of exploring representative entrepreneurs in the Pearl River Delta region to understand their contributions to consumer market development [3] Group 2 - The article features Shenzhen Qianhai Homan Technology Co., Ltd., which has achieved impressive growth, reaching an annual sales figure of approximately 400 million yuan in 2023 [4] - Homan's success is attributed to the rapid development of China's pet market, driven by younger generations who are increasingly adopting pets as family members [4][5] - The company focuses on combining technology and emotional value in its products, addressing real user pain points to capture a leading position in the trillion-yuan pet market [4][6] Group 3 - Homan's product development is driven by a commitment to quality and innovation, with a focus on creating unique, high-quality products rather than competing solely on price [6][7] - The founder, Liu Kun, emphasizes the importance of understanding market needs and creating new demand through innovative product categories [8][9] - Homan's brand strategy includes leveraging social media and community-driven marketing to build brand loyalty and awareness [10][11] Group 4 - Homan has successfully developed a range of products, including smart drying machines and automatic cat litter boxes, addressing traditional pain points in pet care [12] - The company anticipates continued growth in the pet economy, with plans to expand its product offerings to include dog-related products and smart home integrations [12] - Liu Kun believes that the brand's understanding of consumer needs and lifestyle is key to its success, as evidenced by high consumer loyalty and anticipation for new product launches [11][12] Group 5 - The article discusses the broader implications of brand building in the consumer market, highlighting the need for brands to create new market demands and emotional connections with consumers [14][16] - Liu Kun advocates for stronger intellectual property protection to foster innovation and brand development within the industry [15] - The article concludes with a call for a shift in policy focus towards supporting consumer-side innovation and brand building, which is essential for the transformation of China's economy [16][17]

2025 年 06 月 07 日 从市场复盘角度讨论向上突破震荡 区间的条件 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/06/03-25/06/07) 相关研究 《资本市场政策构建了 A 股对宏观 扰动的"隔离墙"——申万宏源策 略一周回顾展望 (25/05/26-25/06/02)》 2025/06/02 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 一、从市场复盘角度讨论向上突破震荡区间的条件：历史上，熊市结束、牛市未立阶段， 往往会有一个震荡区间。向上突破这个区间后，往往就是牛市主升浪。所以，突破条件基 本和牛市确立条件一致。我们继续提示，2025Q2-Q3 A 股总体处于震荡区间内是大概 率。等待天时地利人和，启动更大级别行情。 请务必 ...

港股"新消费三宝"股价回调之际，又一家外资大行看衰蜜雪冰城。 据追风交易台消息，瑞银最新研报将蜜雪冰城评级从"中性"大幅下调至"卖出"，主要忧虑集中在两方面：1）估值过高，已充分 反映甚至超前于长期增长预期；2）海外业务遭遇明显挫折，陷入负增长。 瑞银将蜜雪冰城目标价上调至477.13港元，但仍较当前536港元股价有11%下跌空间。分析师认为，蜜雪冰城43倍/36倍的 2025/26年市盈率以及2.2倍PEG比率已充分反映长期增长预期，而海外业务复苏缓慢进一步削弱投资价值。 对于投资者而言，这意味着在当前估值水平下，任何低于预期的扩张、利润率压缩或竞争加剧都可能引发估值修正。 华尔街见闻此前提及，美银已将蜜雪冰城评级下调至"跑输大市"，并揭示了三大关键风险：短期基本面难以支撑高估值、海外 扩张和咖啡业务受阻限制长期增长空间、以及资金流动推动的估值泡沫可能面临修正。 6月5日周四，港股"新消费三宝"大幅下跌，老铺黄金跌超9%，蜜雪冰城跌7.7%，泡泡玛特跌1.22%；6月6日，"新消费三宝"走 势分化，蜜雪集团跌继续大超5%，老铺黄金微跌0.11%，泡泡玛特收涨。 海外业务遭遇严重挫折，复苏延迟 蜜雪冰城海外业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2023, with significant growth in various sectors, particularly in new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy vehicles, leading to a positive outlook for investment opportunities [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 6, 2023, among 544 Hong Kong stock funds, the highest net asset value growth rate exceeded 85%, with over 90% of these funds showing positive growth [1][2]. - In 36 thematic categories, 33 industry indices have risen, with durable consumer goods, consumer services, and pharmaceutical biotechnology indices each increasing by over 40% [2]. - The total scale of Hong Kong stock funds has increased from approximately 330 billion to 340 billion yuan this year [2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The new consumption sector is recovering rapidly, with companies showing strong performance, supported by both short-term policy catalysts and long-term growth logic [3]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to continue its upward trend, with significant growth potential in the "outbound" market for innovative drugs [4][5]. - High-dividend assets are seen as attractive, with stable cash flow and strong fundamentals expected to perform well in the current market environment [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Fund managers highlight the potential in AI applications and smart driving as key investment opportunities within the new economy sectors [1][4]. - The "technology + consumption" growth stocks are favored by both domestic and foreign investors, with significant interest in new consumption areas such as trendy beverages and innovative products [4]. - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly in niches like electrophysiology and endoscopy, is identified as having substantial growth potential due to low penetration rates and opportunities for domestic companies to expand internationally [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in new consumption trends, represented by companies like Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group, has led to significant stock price increases in the Hong Kong market, prompting a reevaluation of investment strategies in this sector [1][2]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - New consumption has become a key investment theme in the Hong Kong market, with stock prices of representative companies reaching historical highs [1]. - Pop Mart's stock price peaked at 252.6 HKD per share on June 5, up from less than 90 HKD at the end of last year and under 10 HKD in October 2022 [1]. - Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Group also saw their stock prices reach 1015 HKD and 618.5 HKD per share, respectively, within a year of their listings [1]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - The rise of new consumption is attributed to the changing preferences of younger consumers, particularly Generation Z, who prioritize emotional value and self-expression in their purchasing decisions [2][3]. - The shift in consumer demographics reflects a broader change in consumption ideology, with younger generations willing to pay for intellectual property and brands that resonate with their values [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The new consumption sector is supported by consumption upgrades and policy incentives, alongside technological innovations like AI and big data, which enhance consumer experiences [4]. - As of the first quarter of this year, 182 public funds held shares in Pop Mart, with a total market value of 8.78 billion HKD, indicating strong institutional interest [5]. - Despite concerns about potential overheating in the market, analysts believe that many new consumption companies still have significant growth potential and that their valuations can continue to rise [6].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has reached new highs, leading to divergent opinions among investors regarding its future trajectory [2] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Analysis - Renqiao Asset expressed concerns about the overheating of the new consumption sector, suggesting that the significant price increases of companies like Pop Mart indicate a bubble [2] - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the Chinese IP industry, naming Pop Mart and Laopu Gold as top picks, with a rating of "overweight" [2] - The report from Morgan Stanley highlights that IP products are among the best-performing consumer categories this year, despite most companies not seeing significant demand recovery [2] Group 2: Investment Risks and Concerns - A private equity figure warned that the current popularity of LABUBU may not be sustainable, comparing it to the hype around brands like Heytea and Nayuki, suggesting that current performance may not reflect future potential [3] - Concerns were raised about Pop Mart's reliance on limited edition products and the potential for overselling future performance, with a warning that current valuations require substantial profit growth to be justified [3] - Risks associated with the "gambling-like" nature of blind boxes were noted, emphasizing the need for improved regulations to protect minors [4] - The dependency on IP and the lifecycle of products pose risks, as the lifespan of a single IP typically ranges from 9 months to 2 years, which could lead to performance volatility if new hits are not consistently launched [5] - High valuation pressures were highlighted, with Pop Mart's price-to-earnings ratio significantly exceeding the global toy industry average, raising concerns about potential stock price corrections if growth targets are not met [5]

以下文章来源于金错刀 ，作者张一弛 金错刀 . 科技商业观察家。爆品战略提出者。 这是新消费智库第 2 6 4 7 期文章 新消费导读 "带病"上市的绿茶餐厅，也许最清楚自己病症。 作者 ：张一弛 编辑：竺天 审核： Single 来源：金错刀 4年尝试了5次，绿茶餐厅终于圆了自己的上市梦。 绿茶餐厅的老家杭州一直被调侃为美食荒漠，如果在社交平台 "求推荐好吃的杭州特色美食"，那么可能会得到如下答案： 巴比馒头 ，一家速食连锁包子铺。 这次绿茶餐厅费劲心力也要上市，堪称餐饮界最倔强IPO，也为杭州老家多加了张美食名片。 这几年，堪称是中国餐饮洗牌最快的年代，倒闭的、破产的、改命从头再来的餐厅比比皆是。 但绿茶餐厅却大张旗鼓的开店，2022-2024年绿茶餐厅分别开出47家、89家及120家新店，2024年几乎是平均三天开一家新店的速度在扩 张。 从杭州西湖畔到北京 SKP，从一线城市到小县城商业街，绿茶餐厅的扩张速度像极了瑞幸咖啡的"互联网式狂飙"。 只不过，如今的绿茶餐厅跟过去的风光却很难相提并论，不少人调侃绿茶是"带病上市"，食客们也总会反复思考两个相同的问题： 曾经排队 2小时的网红头牌，为何现在打不过 ...