在全球经济格局复杂多变、贸易政策风云变幻的背景下，投资市场的不确定性无疑又增添了几分。近 期，汇丰、渣打以及华侨银行等多家外资机构纷纷发布了对三季度投资的展望。 整体来看，三季度的投资市场仍然充满挑战与机遇。多家外资机构在投资策略中提示，需密切关注贸易 政策、地缘政治等因素的变化，采用多元资产和主动策略管理风险，加强投资组合的韧性，在波动中寻 找合适的投资机会。 渣打： 汇丰： 把握亚洲市场结构性机遇 近日，汇丰环球私人银行及财富管理中国首席投资总监匡正认为，从全球市场来看，过去几个月，美国 贸易关税引发全球多个资产类别波动加剧，但亚洲市场凭借稳健的结构性增长及多元化的本地机遇，整 体表现较好，有望抵销关税带来的部分影响。 在地域配置上，汇丰仍维持地域多元化的投资策略。在亚洲，汇丰看好中国、印度及新加坡等展现出经 济韧性的市场。"中国及亚洲其他地区的专业制造业技术能力集中，不易被取代，中国经济的韧性及结 构性增长机遇依然明显。"匡正表示，与此同时，印度股市虽可能因地缘政治冲突而加剧短期波动，但 或仍将受益于数字化进程及政府对制造业的关注；在不确定的贸易局势中，新加坡所受的影响程度则相 对轻微。 亚洲市场之外， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a potential growth exceeding the market average in the coming months [37]. Core Insights - Lululemon's FY25Q1 performance shows steady growth with revenue of $2.371 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.32%, although slightly below analyst expectations of $2.57 billion. The gross margin improved by 0.62 percentage points to 58.34% due to reduced product costs and optimized discounts [10][12]. - The company expects full-year revenue to be between $11.15 billion and $11.30 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5%-7%. Excluding the additional week in 2024, the expected growth is 7%-8% [15][10]. - In North America, revenue reached $1.675 billion, a 3% increase year-on-year, while the Chinese market showed strong performance with revenue of $368 million, up 21% year-on-year [12][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Data Tracking - In April, apparel retail sales grew by 2.2%, underperforming the overall consumer market due to adverse weather conditions affecting spring apparel sales. The report anticipates improvement in May due to better weather and increased consumer activity [16][3]. - Raw material prices remained stable, with fluctuations in cotton and synthetic fiber prices noted [19][20]. Investment Recommendations - For apparel brands, recommendations include Hai Lan Home, which is adapting to consumer trends and expanding its store presence, and Anta Sports, which is expected to benefit from strong performance in its multi-brand strategy. Additionally, recommendations include leading brands like Bi Yin Le Fen and All Cotton Times [22][4]. - In the upstream manufacturing sector, the report suggests that leading textile manufacturers like Zhejiang Ziran and Shenzhou International are well-positioned to benefit from market shifts due to tariff impacts [22][4]. Market Review and Company News - The textile and apparel sector saw a 1.89% increase in the past week, with notable performances from companies like Langsha and Huasheng [23][28]. - Key company announcements include Nanshan Zhishang's stock issuance and Jiangnan Buyi's land bidding for industrial use [34][34].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 6 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 关税风险上升，宏观数据走弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理，全天冲高回落。当前关税前景不确定性扰动加深，国内宏观经 济指标边际走弱，货 ...

美国芝加哥商业交易所（CME）集团CEO Duffy：地缘政治风险超过（美国总统特朗普特朗普挑起的） 关税所构成的风险。 散户（零售）将改变大量的行业，而不仅仅是影响金融服务领域而已。 ...

芝商所CEO：地缘政治风险高于关税带来的风险。 ...

宏观经济 | 专题报告 "TACO"信仰淡化关税风险定价 ——海外札记 20250603 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。政策不确定性。 ⚫ 20250524-20250531，受到关税缓和、AI 龙头财报驱动，全球市场继续反弹：美国 股市小幅回升，纳指、标普 500 分别收涨 2.01%和 1.88%。周中日本长期主权债拍 卖再度遇冷，市场在等待日银态度，长债收益率下降后回升，但同期美债收益率企 稳回落。商品价格普遍继续回调，天然气价格回落 7.06%，布油收跌 3.35%，黄金 收跌 1.57%。年初至今，美国-非美再平衡趋势仍在延续。德国、香港仍在全球股市 当中领涨。 ⚫ 经济基本面：美国 5 月软指标反弹，4 月投资端下行。5 月美国咨商会消费者信心超 预期改善，由前值 85.7 上升至 98，这期调查多数结果是在 5 月 12 日中美谈判后收 集的，一定程度上印证了 5 月中美关税缓和将会支撑经济短期修复。 ⚫ 耐用品订单环比回落，4 月耐用品订单环比录得-6.3%。此外，剔除波动较大的国防 和飞机后核心资本货物新订单 4 月环比下降 1.3%。企业端数据反映出特朗普的关税 政策对企业未来预 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 6 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：震荡反弹 核心逻辑：上周国债期货震荡回调，不过上周五国债期货触底回升。消息面，美国政府的关税恐吓再 度升温，其不确定性将扰动市场风险偏好，避险情绪升温的情况下国债期货预计表现偏强。货币政策 基调仍为适度宽松，政策利率对市场利率的锚定效应上升，制约市场利率继续上行的空间，国债期货 下行空间有限。进入 6 月之后，外部关税风险因素升温，内部宏观经济指标边际走弱，降息预期仍 存。总的来说短期内国债期货预计震荡反弹为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡反弹 | 关税风险上升，避险情绪升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨 ...

智通财经6月2日电，美联储的LOGAN表示，对于所面临的风险，政策处于良好的状态；关税的潜在风 险是失业率和通胀上升。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market risks are primarily stemming from the U.S., particularly due to Trump's erratic policies, which have increased economic friction. The dollar is expected to weaken, and this trend will gain more recognition over time, while U.S. stocks remain high [1][29]. - Recent developments indicate that tariffs are showing signs of improvement, as a U.S. trade court ruled that Trump's tariffs were illegal, leading to a significant surge in U.S. stocks [9][10]. - The A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are becoming safe-haven assets, with capital flowing into the Hong Kong market, evidenced by a dramatic drop in Hibor rates from 4 to near 0 [2][25]. Group 2 - The volatility in the market has been heightened due to geopolitical tensions and tariff-related shocks, with the VIX index experiencing its fastest rise in history [6][11]. - Despite a slowing fundamental backdrop, liquidity is returning to the Hong Kong market, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks may reach new highs in the second half of the year [2][28]. - The dollar's current account deficit has reached unprecedented levels, indicating a likely continued weakening of the dollar, which is shifting from a safe-haven to a risk asset [18][20]. Group 3 - The relationship between A-shares and precious metals like gold and silver has evolved, with A-shares now reflecting safe-haven characteristics, particularly in the context of recent market downturns [21][22]. - The influx of capital into the Hong Kong market is significant, with a notable increase in the monetary base, suggesting a robust liquidity environment that could support further market gains [25][27]. - The market's response to the potential resolution of tariff issues could positively impact inflation expectations, as the worst-case scenarios may already be priced in [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded, with the gold price dropping by over 1% and briefly falling below the $3000 mark. The US and EU are in trade negotiations, and although the risk of high - tariff imposition remains, the market is expecting a deal. The short - term trend of gold is volatile, and a new upward trend awaits a catalyst [11]. - The US consumer confidence index has risen, and the stock market has responded positively. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks persist, and the US stock market remains in a volatile state [20]. - For commodities, different products have different outlooks. For example, copper is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, while crude oil prices are affected by the OPEC+ meeting and are trending downward [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Florida has recognized gold and silver as legal tender. The EU and the US are in trade negotiations, and the gold price has dropped by over 1% and briefly fallen below $3000 due to the progress of the negotiations. The short - term gold price is volatile, and there is a risk of further decline [11]. - Investment advice: Be aware of the short - term decline risk and increased market volatility [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japan's Ministry of Finance is considering reducing the issuance of ultra - long - term bonds, causing the yen to rebound and the US dollar index to rise in the short term [15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 448 billion yuan, with a net injection of 91 billion yuan. The decline in the bond market may be due to institutional behavior. The long - term view on the bond market remains positive, and a strategy of buying on dips and holding is recommended [17]. - Investment advice: Be bullish in the medium - term, and buy at appropriate times to accumulate low - cost positions [18]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US consumer confidence index in May rose to 98.0, but the durable goods orders in April decreased by 6.3% month - on - month. The market risk appetite has improved, and the three major stock indexes have risen significantly. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks remain, and the US stock market remains volatile [19][20]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [20]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18th to 19th. The profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and the single - month growth rate in April rebounded to 3%. However, the revenue growth rate has declined, indicating that the boost from export rush to demand is less than expected [21][22]. - Investment advice: Adopt a balanced allocation strategy [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in June is about 10.5625 million tons, and the expected arrivals in July and August are 11 million tons and 9 million tons respectively. The US soybean planting rate is 76%, and the export inspection volume is at the lower end of the market expectation. The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, and the domestic soybean meal spot price is mixed [24][25]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a volatile mindset and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US relations [25]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in Ordos is stable. Towards the end of the month, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production, and the supply has tightened slightly. The power plant's daily coal consumption has increased slightly year - on - year, and the port coal price has stabilized at a low level. However, considering the high - level supply and the impact of new energy on summer consumption, the coal price is expected to decline in the future [26][27]. - Investment advice: Expect the coal price to decline in the future [27]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron and steel industry's profit from January to April was 1.692 billion yuan. The iron ore price is in a weak and volatile state. The terminal steel product price has broken through the key support level, and the market sentiment is poor. The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - Australia has launched an anti - dumping review of Chinese rebar. The steel price has continued to decline due to the expected weakening of demand and the collapse of the cost side. The market is in a negative feedback state, and the unilateral operation should be cautious [30]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term unilateral operations and consider hedging on spot price rebounds [31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The domestic corn starch spot price is stable at a high level, and the market trading is flexible. The starch inventory has not changed much, and the downstream starch sugar demand is expected to increase seasonally. The regional price difference between North China and Northeast China is high but may decline slightly [32]. - Investment advice: The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [33]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn spot price is stable. The inventory of corn in Northeast China is low, and the trading is light. However, feed mills are expected to start restocking in June, which may drive up the price of corn and wheat. The corn price is expected to rise in the future [34]. - Investment advice: Both the corn spot and futures prices are expected to rise, and pay attention to the restocking of feed mills and wheat procurement policies in June [35]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Guizhou has partially resumed production. The alumina price has shown some changes in different regions, and the mineral price is firm [36][37]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [38]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The IEA warns that the global demand for refined copper will increase significantly before 2050, while the supply will decline. Some copper mines have production issues. The short - term copper price is affected by the strengthening US dollar index and is expected to trade in a high - level range [39][40][42]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage operations [43]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon spot price has slightly declined, and there are many market rumors. The production schedule for May and June is known, and the inventory situation varies among downstream enterprises. The decision of leading enterprises on production cuts will affect the market trend [45]. - Investment advice: Unilateral operations are risky. Consider taking profits on the PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 positive spreads [46]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some enterprises are building new industrial silicon furnaces, and some organic silicon plants are in the maintenance period. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The industrial silicon price lacks the impetus to rebound [47][49]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions and be aware of the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's nickel sulfide exports in March have increased. The LME has increased inventory, and the SHFE has decreased inventory. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be sufficient this year, but the price is supported by factors such as the rainy season. The nickel market is currently calm, and some enterprises have a willingness to cut production [50]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term and look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the medium term [51]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Chile is expected to start production in 2032. A domestic company plans to conduct futures hedging. The current market is dominated by the downward spiral of salt and ore prices, but the approaching delivery of the main contract and salt - factory maintenance may provide short - term support [52][55]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions or roll over contracts and be aware of price fluctuations during the contract roll - over [55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The refined - scrap lead price difference has narrowed. The primary lead production is stable, while the secondary lead production is affected by high costs and raw material shortages. The demand from battery factories is weak, but the lead inventory has decreased. The lead price may have a low - level buying opportunity in the medium term [56][57]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and start looking for medium - term low - level buying opportunities [57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A company's zinc concentrate production in the first quarter has decreased. The supply of zinc is expected to be loose in the future, while the demand is weak. The zinc price is recommended to be shorted [58]. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to short on price increases and consider selling options. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for spreads and a long - short arbitrage strategy for the domestic - foreign market [59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ is trying to balance the market. The oil price has declined, and the market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting results. An oversupply risk may suppress the oil price [5][60]. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [60]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price has declined slightly and is in a narrow - range trading phase. The overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emissions in 2025 is expected to be loose, and the price may be under pressure [61][62]. - Investment advice: The CEA price is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term [63]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis has strengthened. The demand is at a high level, and the supply is below 80%, with inventory being depleted. The cost side is also favorable. The PTA price is expected to be stronger than the oil price [64]. - Investment advice: The PTA price and spreads are expected to remain strong in the short term [65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased. The supply is stable, and the demand from the alum - industry is good. However, the impact of the alum market on caustic soda is waning, and the caustic soda price may trade in a range [66]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda price is expected to trade in a range, and the alum market's impact has diminished [66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp price has declined. The market is in a weak state, and the price is expected to trade in a range [67]. - Investment advice: The pulp price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [68]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has declined, and the futures price is volatile. The downstream procurement has increased, and the market has improved slightly. The PVC price is expected to trade in a range [69]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [69]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has decreased, and the market trading is light. The industry is operating at a high level, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate at a low level [70][73]. - Investment advice: The bottle - chip processing margin is expected to remain low, and pay attention to supply - side changes [73]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is in a low - level range, and the futures price has declined due to new capacity. The spot market is weak, and the demand is sluggish [73]. - Investment advice: Short - term maintenance may support the price, but maintain a short - selling view in the medium term [74]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The glass futures price has risen due to rumors of production line shutdowns. The spot market is generally stable, with different regions showing different trends. The glass price is expected to remain in a low - level range [75]. - Investment advice: The glass price is expected to remain low, and pay attention to real - estate policy changes [75]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - A shipping line's express service has resumed. The European container freight rate is in a price - holding period, and there may be a second price increase in mid - to - late June. The US line's rush - shipping expectation has subsided [76][77]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on price dips due to market sentiment fluctuations [77].