摘要 关税风险减弱，资产价格迎来"喘息"之机 20250429 • 5 月推荐配置全球大类资产，包括美股、美债和国际大宗商品（不包括黄 金），因地缘政治风险缓解，黄金阶段性上涨可能结束。美元在关税谈判 温和进展下相对看涨。 • 国内市场因中美硬碰硬态势及基本面数据走弱，建议标配国内资产。政治 局会议结果低于预期，市场期待增量政策，但具体举措不明显，短期内国 内风险资产价格缺乏利好因素。 • 美联储 5 月降息概率较低，预计 6 月降息概率较高，需美国失业率和通胀 数据支撑。鲍威尔任期内，美联储货币政策路径未受特朗普实质影响。 • 对权益类资产持谨慎乐观态度，推荐哑铃型策略：防守端选择银行和保险； 进攻端选择电子、计算机、传媒和通信板块。银行仍具战略配置价值。 • 政策支持服务消费效果有限，中国居民消费习惯与美国不同，贷款刺激消 费效果不如发放消费券。促进服务消费可能成为政策发力重点。 • 美股自 4 月 10 日开始反弹，若 220 项贸易协定逐步推出且关税下降，可 能迎来新一轮机会，但具体措施出台前保持谨慎乐观。 • 国内大宗商品市场整体偏空，需求较弱，尤其是地产链条上的螺纹钢和玻 璃。农产品需求相对稳定。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Electronics with a target price of HKD 41.0, representing a potential upside of 28.9% from the recent closing price of HKD 31.8 [5]. Core Views - The first quarter performance of BYD Electronics was stable, with revenue of RMB 36.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.10%. The gross profit margin was 6.3%, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.58 percentage points but an increase of 0.43 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 622 million, up 1.92% year-on-year [1][2]. - The indirect impact of tariffs from the U.S. is considered to be greater than the direct impact, as the company's direct exports to the U.S. are minimal. The company has a broad global layout with factories in Vietnam, India, Malaysia, and Hungary, allowing it to provide low-cost solutions to mitigate risks [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1, the assembly business in the consumer electronics sector remained stable with slight growth, while the automotive business saw an increase due to higher order volumes. However, the demand for high-end smartphones decreased, affecting the gross profit and margin of the main business [2]. - The company reported a gross profit of RMB 2.325 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.35% [1]. Future Growth Drivers - For 2025, the assembly business is expected to continue growing, supported by improved efficiency at the Chengdu factory. The automotive electronics segment is anticipated to benefit from the overall growth in vehicle production and increased value per vehicle [3]. Market Position and Strategy - BYD Electronics is viewed positively for its technological leadership and customer resource advantages in the consumer electronics sector. The company is well-positioned to navigate the slow adjustment of supply chains by major clients due to its overseas production capacity [3].

稳固，但短线市场情绪边际回暖或导致金价上行受阻，CFTC黄金净多头头寸削减至14个月以来的最低，预 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 785.14 | 5.1 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8215 | 47 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 143824 | -7748 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 264110 | -16776 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 92938 | 2539 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 147187 | 6017 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 15648 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 931324 | -3097 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 782.65 | 1.65 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8217 | 54 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/4/28 贵金属日度观点 美联储褐皮书多次提及关税风险压制市场情绪，叠加美元指数反弹削弱黄金吸引力，但中长期逻辑未改，全球央行购金需求及地缘政治不确定性仍为金价提供支撑。 SHFE金银期货主连价格. source： Wind 元/克 SHFE黄金 SHFE白银(右轴) 元/千克 24/04 24/08 24/12 500 600 700 800 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 COMEX黄金与金银比. source： wind 2000 2500 3000 3500 美元/盎司 COMEX黄金价格 COMEX金银比价(右轴) 24/03 24/06 24/09 24/12 25/03 70 80 90 100 source： wind 元/克 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开 ...

证券研究报告 2025年4月28日 关税风险减弱，资产价格迎来"喘息"之机 — 大 类 资 产 配 置 月 报 第 4 6 期 ： 2 0 2 5 年 5 月 配置建议：超配关税风险缓释后的美股、国际大宗商品 | | | | 本期：2025-4-25至2025-5-30 | | 大类 | 项目 | | 本期：2025-4-25至2025-5-30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 高配 | 标配 | 低配 | | | 高配 | 标配 | 低配 | | 1 | 美方对关税立场 有所弱化，美联 | | √ | | 国内股指 | 上证指数 | | √ | √ | | | | | | | | 创业板指 | | | √ | | | | | | | | 成长(风格.中信) | | | | | | | | | | | 周期(风格.中信) | | √ | | | | | | | | | 金融(风格.中信) | √ | | | | | 储"按兵不动" | | | | | 消费(风格.中信) | | √ | | | | ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the meeting was to address the challenges posed by the U.S. tariffs, expand domestic markets, enhance economic cooperation between Guangzhou and Taiwan, and promote the high-quality development of Taiwanese enterprises [1][2] - Representatives from nearly 20 Taiwanese enterprises, including those in jewelry, automotive parts, and textiles, participated and provided feedback on the current economic challenges and opportunities [2] - Guangzhou's government departments expressed their commitment to support Taiwanese businesses through various policies and initiatives aimed at creating a favorable business environment [2][3] Group 2 - The Guangzhou Municipal Taiwan Affairs Office emphasized the importance of Taiwanese enterprises in the local economy and highlighted ongoing efforts to optimize the business environment for these companies [2][3] - Taiwanese business representatives expressed confidence in the support from the Guangzhou government and acknowledged the city's robust industrial chain and favorable policies as conducive to innovation and entrepreneurship [3] - The meeting aimed to foster collaboration and resilience among Taiwanese businesses in Guangzhou, encouraging them to actively participate in the city's high-quality development initiatives [3]

2025 年 4 月 28 日 星期一 ➢ 每日大市点评 港股市场延续反弹步伐，恒生指数上周全周上涨 2.7%至 21,980 点，虽未站稳 22,000 点关口，但日均成交额放大至 2,389 亿港元，显示资金活跃度回升。值得关注的是，恒生科指周涨幅仅 2.0%且未能突破 5,000 点心理关口，反映科技板块修 复动能相对不足。从资金流向观察，港股通全周净流出 3.8 亿港元，其中上周三单日流出 181 亿，显示内地投资者趁反弹 锁定收益的操作特征。板块分化加剧成为市场显著特征，医疗保健与信息科技板块分别大涨 8.4%和 6.0%，但必需消费及 电讯板块逆势下跌，揭示资金在政策预期与避险需求间的再平衡。 全球资本市场对关税风险的定价出现显著逆转，德国 DAX、意大利富时 MIB、印度及韩国 KOSPI 等主要股指已收复 4 月关 税消息冲击的全部失地，而美股三大指数也逐渐升抵 4 月 2 日的下跌裂口，恐慌指数大幅回落，显示海外投资者情绪有所 改善。尽管中国外交部否认重启经贸谈判，但美方释放削减关税信号。值得警惕的是，港股虽同步反弹但修复力度弱于 欧美市场，反映国际资金对地缘风险溢价仍存差异化定价。 四月政 ...

1 | | 收盘价 | 区间涨幅 | 日均成交 | 持仓量 | 持仓变化 | 投机度 | CTD券 | IRR | IRR变化 远期收益 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 量 | | | | | | | 率 | | 两年期 | | | | | | | | | | | | TS2506 | 102.31 | -0.15% | 33869 | 95758 | -16497 | 0.35 | 240024.IB | 2.1% | -0.2% | 1.44% | | TS2509 | 102.56 | -0.06% | 6446 | 48223 | 12828 | 0.13 | 250006.IB | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.27% | | TS2512 | 102.73 | -0.05% | 88 | 1164 | 147 | 0.08 | 240016.IB | 2.0% | 5.3% | 1.34% | | 五年期 | | | | | | | | | | | | TF2506 | ...

日度报告——综合晨报 政治局会议表述并未超出市场预期，豆油厂 开机小幅上升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-28 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美官员：美乌矿产协议即将完成 最新消息美乌之间的矿产协议即将达成，这可能表明距离俄乌 协议进了一步，但是不确定性继续存在。 宏观策略（黄金） 黄金投机净多仓增加 油厂开机小幅上升 上周国内进口大豆成本增加，盘面榨利转差。供需错配下豆粕 现货市场短期仍较为紧张，但上周五现货已经有所回落，豆粕 5 月期价也大幅下挫，后期供需面将趋于改善。 有色金属（铜） 五矿资源一季度铜总产量同比增长 76% 短期宏观因素对铜价限制减弱，且基本面阶段支撑相对较强， 预计铜价短期或震荡偏强运行，策略角度继续关注逢低做多机 会。 能源化工（原油） 尼日利亚一大型汽油制造装置进行维修 综 周五金价震荡收跌一度跌破 3300 美金，表现偏弱，在贸易问题 没有进一步升级以及美国资产企稳回升后，短期资金获利了结。 美联储金融稳定性报告显示关税是当前最大风险。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 政治局会议：适时降准降息 报 政治局会议表述并未超出市场预期，总体来看，政策保持了定 力 ...

HCA Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:HCA) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call April 25, 2025 10:00 AM ET Company Participants Frank Morgan - Vice President of Investor Relations Sam Hazen - Chief Executive Officer Mike Marks - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Ann Hynes - Mizuho Securities Pito Chickering - Deutsche Bank A.J. Rice - UBS Whit Mayo - Leerink Partners Ben Hendrix - RBC Capital Markets Sarah James - Cantor Fitzgerald Brian Tanquilut - Jefferies Andrew Mok - Barclays Capital Matthew Gillmo ...