1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro层面，关税扰动贯穿7月，月初市场悲观，随着贸易协定落地、关税调降，市场情绪回暖；美国二季度经济数据有韧性，劳动市场稳健，美联储偏鹰，市场对美联储降息节点预期反复 [4] - 成本方面，印尼、菲律宾气候扰动减弱，镍矿供给趋向宽松，印尼镍商会下调镍矿内贸基准价，但矿价走弱迹象不明显 [4] - 基本面，7月国内不锈钢产量预期大幅收缩，印尼小幅环增但难补国内减量；三元材料产量小幅环增，消费整体走弱；纯镍出口窗口敞开，供给小幅探涨，基本面供增需减边际走弱 [4] - 后期宏观预期主导，基本面边际变量对价格影响有限；上旬宏观压力预期强，下旬有不确定性；基本面暂无改善预期，镍价或延续震荡运行 [4][47] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - 7月沪镍主力合约震荡运行，月初因美国信函关税压力镍价下行，后随贸易协议签署、关税调降而反弹；基本面无明显驱动，供给边际修正，需求边际走弱，现货库存有累库迹象 [9] - 7月精炼镍升贴水高位回落，金川镍升贴水从月初2600元/吨降至7月30日2300元/吨，进口镍升贴水同期从650元/吨降至550元/吨，升贴水回落后维持低位震荡 [11] 3.2 Macro Analysis Overseas: Tariff Turmoil and Fluctuating Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts - 7月上旬特朗普向23个国家发关税信函，关税强度20 - 50，中下旬关税风波缓解，美国与多国签署贸易协议，协议关税低于信函税率；部分国家仍面临高对等关税，新协议落地待观察 [13] - 美国经济数据喜忧参半，6月核心PCE物价指数等显示通胀和消费有韧性，但7月非农就业等数据走弱，劳动力市场有结构性失衡；制造业PMI未延续修正趋势，市场对美联储降息节点预期反复 [14] - 美国居民需求有韧性是经济增长基石，但需警惕关税引发滞涨压力 [15] Domestic: Clear Path to Anti-Involution and Stable Economic Structure - 反内卷政策预期延续，政策框架日益完善，但7月底政治局会议纪要措辞调整引发市场情绪反复，治理内卷路径明确但具体量化目标待明确 [16] - 投资端6月固定资产投资同比增长2.8%，房地产投资占比回落；消费端社零累计同比+5.0%，剔除汽车后增速回落，居民自主消费驱动力不足；出口6月总额同比增长5.64%，关税对出口影响不明确，需警惕转口贸易压力 [17] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 1. Alleviation of Shortage and Possible Decline in Ore Prices - 印尼、菲律宾气候扰动减弱，镍矿开采效率提升，紧缺格局缓解，印尼镍商会下调镍矿内贸基准价，菲律宾8月镍矿预售成交环比回落，镍矿供给有宽松预期，价格或走弱 [22] - 6月中国镍矿进口量同比回落7.21%，进口自菲律宾占比93.23%；7月25日国内港口库存较6月末大幅累库139万吨 [23] 2. Export Window Remains Open and Supply is Ample - 7月全国精炼镍产量3.28万吨，同比+13.69%，开工率61.08%；冶炼端亏损幅度收窄但仍为负，上游现金流压力或凸显，需警惕下半年供给扰动 [26] - 6月中国进口精炼镍17010吨，同比增长119.71%，进口增量来自挪威，部分国家进口量下滑；出口10143吨，同比-5.66%，7月出口利润回落 [27] 3. Easing Pressure on Ferronickel but Need Time for Correction - 7月高镍生铁价格先跌后涨，10 - 12%高镍生铁到港含税报价月初910.5元/镍点，月中900元/镍点，月底912元/镍点 [30] - 7月中国镍生铁产量环比-0.04%，印尼同环比+28.14%/-1.73%；仅山东火法BF工艺有利润，国内RKEF及EF工艺亏损；国内不锈钢产量7月预期走弱，印尼或增加；国内300系不锈钢库存高位去库不顺畅 [31] - 6月国内镍铁进口同比+50.05%，主要来自印尼；不锈钢进口同比-16.17%，出口同比-15.33%，进出口规模为年内最低 [32] 4. Recovery of the Nickel Sulfate Market and Marginal Improvement in Supply and Demand - 7月硫酸镍价格走势分化，电池级硫酸镍价格从月初28500元/吨降至月末27900元/吨，电镀级硫酸镍价格从28050元/吨涨至28550元/吨 [38] - 5月硫酸镍产量同环比+4.77%/+17.3%，7月三元材料产量同环比+16.7%/+5.8%；高冰镍产硫酸镍工艺利润率3.6%盈利，其他原料工艺亏损；6月硫酸镍进口量约1.32吨，出口782吨 [39] 5. Conservative Policy Expectations and Slowing Consumption Growth - 1 - 6月新能源汽车累计销量同比+40.31%，产量同比+41.37%，产销比近乎持平；7月1 - 20日新能源乘用车零售同比增长23%，较上月同期下降12%，消费增速自6月退坡 [41] - 后期新能源汽车消费面临居民自主消费依赖补贴、补贴资金投放有序及高基数压力，消费或维持增长但数据表现放缓 [42] 6. Bearish Fundamentals and Possible Accumulation of Pure Nickel Inventory - 截至7月25日国内精炼镍社会库存较6月末累库2438吨，7月31日SHFE和LME库存较上月增加，全球两大交易所库存同期增加约5170吨 [44] - 后期纯镍去库曲折，硫酸镍市场热度难延续，冶炼端供给或维持高位，预计纯镍库存将再度累库 [44] 3.4 Market Outlook - 供给方面，出口窗口在，供给或高位稳中偏弱 [47] - 需求方面，钢企不锈钢排产低，新能源消费降速，需求端无亮点，稳中偏弱 [47] - 成本方面，镍矿供给宽松，成本重心下移，中性 [47] - 宏观方面，关税风险反复，上旬压力强，下旬有不确定性，中性 [47] - 后期宏观预期主导，基本面改善预期不明显，镍价或延续震荡运行 [47]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, Haier Smart Home, and others, while Lulu Lemon is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the earnings season in Europe and America is causing market volatility, exacerbated by uncertainties surrounding tariffs from the Trump administration [4][6]. - The performance of various sectors shows that gambling, overseas cosmetics, and pet products are outperforming the MSCI China index, while sectors like luxury goods and overseas sportswear are experiencing significant declines [4][12]. Sector Performance Overview - Weekly performance: Gambling > Overseas Cosmetics > Pets > Gold and Jewelry > Snacks > Domestic Cosmetics > Domestic Sportswear > Credit Cards > US Hotels > Daily Necessities > Luxury Goods > Overseas Sportswear, with respective weekly changes of 0.6%, -0.6%, -1.6%, -2.2%, -2.2%, -2.5%, -2.7%, -4.5%, -5.5%, -6.6%, -7.6%, and -9.0% [5][15]. - Monthly performance: Gambling > Domestic Sportswear > Domestic Cosmetics > Credit Cards > Luxury Goods > Overseas Cosmetics > US Hotels > Snacks > Daily Necessities > Gold and Jewelry > Overseas Sportswear > Pets, with respective monthly changes of 4.3%, -0.3%, -3.1%, -4.2%, -4.5%, -5.1%, -5.7%, -8.1%, -8.4%, -11.7%, -12.4%, and -14.4% [12][15]. - Year-to-date performance: Gold and Jewelry > Domestic Cosmetics > Overseas Cosmetics > Pets > Snacks > Daily Necessities > Credit Cards > Gambling > Domestic Sportswear > US Hotels > Overseas Sportswear > Luxury Goods, with respective year-to-date changes of 142.3%, 49.4%, 35.6%, 34.8%, 20.9%, 20.7%, 7.4%, 3.3%, 2.4%, -1.5%, -11.0%, and -13.7% [12][15]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that most sectors are still undervalued compared to their average valuations over the past five years, with expected PE ratios for 2025 as follows: - Overseas Sportswear: 31.7x (51% of 5-year average) - Domestic Sportswear: 12.8x (74% of 5-year average) - Gold and Jewelry: 24.7x (43% of 5-year average) - Luxury Goods: 23.3x (41% of 5-year average) - Gambling: 17.4x (26% of 5-year average) - Overseas Cosmetics: 39.7x (62% of 5-year average) - Domestic Cosmetics: 30.9x (58% of 5-year average) - Pets: 41.7x (45% of 5-year average) - Snacks: 22.4x (37% of 5-year average) - Daily Necessities: 23.3x (71% of 5-year average) - US Hotels: 28.9x (18% of 5-year average) - Credit Cards: 29.7x (59% of 5-year average) [10][19].

Group 1 - President Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on imports from Canada, Brazil, India, and Taiwan just hours before the tariff deadline, despite ongoing negotiations for more favorable agreements [1] - Employment growth has sharply declined over the past three months, with an increase of only 73,000 jobs in July and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in the previous two months, resulting in an average increase of only 35,000 jobs over the last three months, the worst level since the pandemic began [1] - The report has raised expectations for a rate cut in September to 80.0% [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues to refuse to lower interest rates, the Federal Reserve Board should take control [1] - Bond prices have continued to rise as investors bet on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to an increase in gold prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously go long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and try to go long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Short on rebounds [1] - Lead: Bearish [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the gold and silver markets are affected by US inflation data and tariff negotiations, facing adjustments, but the long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged due to factors such as central bank gold purchases and loose monetary policies [1][2][3] - Copper has short - term inventory pressure due to the traditional off - season, but is bullish in the long - term because of the tight supply of copper concentrates and the increasing demand from the new energy industry [1][7][8] - Zinc is under short - term pressure due to the off - season and increasing supply, and is recommended to short on rebounds in the long - term as supply increases and demand decreases throughout the year [1][11][12] - Aluminum is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak demand in the off - season, and short - term rebound shorting is recommended [1][15][16] - Nickel is facing pressure due to weak downstream support and inventory accumulation, and shorting on rebounds is advised [1][19][20] - Lithium carbonate has a bearish outlook in the short - term as the fundamentals show inventory accumulation and weak demand, and shorting on rebounds is recommended [1][23][24] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US inflation data exceeds expectations, which weakens the interest - rate cut expectation, and the tariff risk fades, causing the gold and silver markets to face adjustments [2] - **Basic Logic**: The US - Mexico tariff negotiation is postponed, US data reduces the interest - rate cut expectation, and global gold demand continues to grow. In the short - term, the tariff risk fades, but in the long - term, the long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 760 for gold in the short - term. For silver, wait for it to stop falling and stabilize before going long as its long - term fundamentals are positive [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and falls back, testing the support at the 78,000 level [7] - **Industry Logic**: In the short - term, the contradiction lies in the inventory accumulation in the off - season and the inventory return pressure. In the medium - term, there is a co - existence of tight supply of copper concentrates and high production of electrolytic copper. In the long - term, there is uncertainty in demand due to trade wars and the potential demand explosion in the new energy field [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the tariff adjustment, COMEX copper plummets, and Shanghai copper is under pressure. Wait for copper to fully adjust before lightly going long. In the long - term, be bullish on copper [8] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuates narrowly at a low level [11] - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is loose, and domestic refined zinc production increases. The demand is weak in the off - season [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the macro - sentiment fades, zinc returns to its fundamentals. Short - term pressure causes it to fall back and consolidate at a low level. Partially take profit on previous short positions, and short on rebounds in the long - term [12] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure and weak, and alumina prices fall back [14] - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, inventory accumulates and demand is weak in the off - season. For alumina, the supply - demand pattern is loose [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on short - term rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the inventory accumulation progress in the off - season [16] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure and weaken, while stainless steel rebounds slightly [18] - **Industry Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines falls, and domestic nickel supply - demand is weak with inventory accumulation. Stainless steel production cuts weaken, and there is still over - supply in the off - season [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduces positions for four consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a drop of over 4% [22] - **Industry Logic**: The total inventory continues to accumulate, but the price increase transfers inventory from upstream to intermediate links. There are risks in Jiangxi's lithium mining licenses, and the market is volatile [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the speculative atmosphere fades, short on rebounds in the range of 68,000 - 70,500 [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - For gold, it's recommended to be cautious and go long. Short - term, the market may adjust, but long - term, it's suitable for strategic allocation due to factors like multi - country monetary policy easing and central bank gold purchases [1]. - For silver, it's advisable to try going long after stabilization. It follows the adjustment of gold and copper, but with a long - term upward trend due to economic demand and fiscal stimulus [1]. - For copper, it's suggested to go long on dips. Although it's under short - term pressure, it's still promising in the long run [1]. - For zinc, it's recommended to sell on rallies. It will face short - term pressure and a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long run [1]. - For lead, its price rebound is under pressure due to factors like inventory accumulation [1]. - For tin, its price rebound is under pressure because of slow复产 and inventory accumulation [1]. - For aluminum, its price rebound is under pressure due to high imports and inventory accumulation [1]. - For nickel, its price rebound is under pressure because of factors like inventory accumulation and weak terminal demand [1]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, it's advisable to be cautiously bullish, being vigilant about the risk of price drops [1]. - For lithium carbonate, it's advisable to be cautiously bullish, paying attention to support levels and being vigilant about price drops [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Due to Powell's tight - lipped stance, strong US data, and the fading of tariff risks, the gold and silver market has adjusted [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Tariff tensions have eased, US data has reduced the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and the Fed's interest - rate decision has maintained the status quo. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support levels of gold at around 760 and silver at 9000 during the adjustment period [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper opened lower and fluctuated downward [5]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, electrolytic copper production is increasing, demand has mixed performance, and inventory is accumulating [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to factors like the expected exemption of copper tariffs and inventory accumulation, copper is under short - term pressure but promising in the long run. Focus on the price range of Shanghai copper at [77500, 79500] and London copper at [9650, 9850] dollars per ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc declined under pressure, and London zinc lost the 2800 mark [8]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, refined zinc production is increasing, and demand is weak during the off - season [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the fading of macro - sentiment, zinc returns to its fundamentals. It's under short - term pressure and has a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long run. Focus on the price range of Shanghai zinc at [22400, 22800] and London zinc at [2650, 2850] dollars per ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price rebound was weak, and alumina rebounded and then declined [11]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, production capacity is increasing, inventory is accumulating, and demand is weak. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory is also accumulating [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's advisable to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, paying attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000, 20800] [13]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price rebound was under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [15]. - **Industry Logic**: For nickel, overseas uncertainty remains, and inventory is accumulating. For stainless steel, production cuts are weakening, and inventory pressure is emerging during the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's advisable to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000, 123000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions for three consecutive days and rose and then fell during the day [19]. - **Industry Logic**: Total inventory is accumulating, but price increases are shifting inventory. Production is rising despite some company cut - offs. The compliance risk of lithium mining licenses is a focus, and there may be significant fluctuations [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's advisable to wait and see, paying attention to the support at 68,000. The price range is [70000, 73500] [21].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, emphasized the importance of considering tariff risks when formulating monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Canada is closely monitoring the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation [1] - Macklem indicated that trade policies and international relations are critical factors influencing economic stability [1] - The central bank aims to balance interest rates while being aware of external trade risks [1]

Market Overview - The three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.46%, S&P 500 down 0.30%, and Nasdaq down 0.38% due to tariffs and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - Technology stocks mostly declined, with Meta, Tesla, and Apple each falling over 1%, while Google rose 1.56% [1] - Novo Nordisk, a leader in weight-loss drugs, plummeted 21% after lowering its full-year earnings guidance, negatively impacting the healthcare sector [1] Chinese Market Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.35%, continuing its downward trend [1] - Li Auto led the decline with a drop of 6.20%, followed by JD.com down 3.01%, Baidu down 2.91%, and both Alibaba and NIO down over 2% [1] - Tencent Music and Manbang saw slight increases amidst the overall market decline [1] Economic Sentiment - Concerns over tariffs are contributing to foreign capital outflow pressures [1] - Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the market largely anticipates that the Fed will maintain current rates in its upcoming policy meeting [1] - Goldman Sachs warned that tariff risks could reignite recession fears, leading to increased market volatility [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Adjustment for long - term strategic allocation due to potential dollar weakness, monetary policy easing, and continued gold purchases by countries, despite short - term uncertainties from geopolitics and trade negotiations [1] - Silver: Follow gold and copper adjustments, with long - term upward trend intact due to economic demand and fiscal stimulus, short - term adjustment to focus on support around 9050 [1] - Copper: Short - term struggle at the 79,000 psychological level, recommend dip - buying, long - term bullish due to global copper mine tightness [1][7] - Zinc: Short - term wait - and - see due to uncertain sentiment, long - term supply - increase and demand - decrease, look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][10] - Lead: Price rebound is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak downstream consumption [1] - Tin: Price rebound is under pressure due to slow复产 in Myanmar, weak supply - demand, and inventory accumulation [1] - Aluminum: Price rebound is under pressure due to high - level imports of bauxite and inventory accumulation in the off - season [1][12] - Nickel: Price rebound is under pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [1][13] - Industrial Silicon: Likely to remain at a high level despite supply increase and demand drag [1] - Polysilicon: Likely to remain at a high level with strong cost support but limited spot trading [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range oscillation with supply - side risks, focus on 69,000 support [1][15] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Gold and silver prices oscillated at high levels due to the uncertain cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine and weak US data [2] - **基本逻辑**: Short - term tariff risks receded, but long - term gold bullish logic remains due to Fed rate - cut expectations, debt issuance acceleration, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping [3] - **策略推荐**: Focus on support around 760 for gold and 9100 for silver, maintain long - term views [4] Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, back to the 79,000 level [6] - **产业逻辑**: Tight copper concentrate supply, increasing electrolytic copper production, weakening rod - making开工率, and potential impact of US tariff policies on exports [6] - **策略推荐**: Short - term dip - buying on copper, long - term bullish, focus on Shanghai copper range [78,000, 80,000] and London copper range [9700, 9900] [7] Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc stopped falling and oscillated narrowly [9] - **产业逻辑**: Abundant zinc concentrate supply in 2025, increasing refined zinc production, weak demand in the off - season [9] - **策略推荐**: Short - term wait - and - see, long - term short - selling on rallies, focus on Shanghai zinc range [22,400, 22,800] and London zinc range [2650, 2850] [10] Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, while alumina prices rebounded [11] - **产业逻辑**: High - level aluminum ingot and bar inventory in the off - season, weakening downstream开工率, and abundant alumina supply [12] - **策略推荐**: Short - term short - selling on aluminum rallies, focus on the range [20,000, 20,800] [12] Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices faced pressure on rebounds, while stainless steel prices rebounded slightly [13] - **产业逻辑**: Weak nickel supply - demand, inventory accumulation, and over - supply in the stainless steel market during the off - season [13] - **策略推荐**: Short - selling on nickel and stainless steel rallies, focus on the nickel range [120,000, 123,000] [13] Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 significantly reduced positions with a 6% decline [14] - **产业逻辑**: Inventory accumulation, production increase despite some corporate cut - offs, and potential impact of mining license risks [15] - **策略推荐**: Wait - and - see, focus on the 69,000 support level [15]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the U.S. smartphone market, with India emerging as the primary production hub for smartphones aimed at the U.S. market due to increasing uncertainties in U.S.-China trade relations [2][3] - Smartphone shipments in the U.S. are projected to grow by 1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, despite a notable decline in iPhone shipments and strong growth for Samsung [1][4] Shipment Data Summary - In Q2 2025, iPhone shipments fell by 11% to 13.3 million units, while Samsung's shipments increased by 38% to 8.3 million units [1][7] - Motorola's shipments grew by 2% to 3.2 million units, Google saw a 13% increase to 800,000 units, and TCL experienced a 23% decline to 700,000 units [1][7] Supply Chain and Inventory Management - Manufacturers are preemptively increasing inventory levels to mitigate potential tariff impacts, with Apple and Samsung notably raising their stock levels in anticipation of possible tariffs [3][4] - Despite high inventory levels, overall market demand remains weak, indicating a growing gap between shipments and actual sales [4] Market Dynamics and Challenges - The article discusses the increasing difficulty for small and medium-sized brands to establish a foothold in the U.S. market, as over 90% of market share is dominated by the top three manufacturers [5][6] - Companies like HMD are scaling back their U.S. operations, highlighting the challenges faced by smaller players in the current market environment [5][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term tariff risks have subsided, but long - term gold has a bullish logic due to factors like the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, accelerated debt issuance, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping [1][2]. - Silver is under high - level pressure. It follows the adjustment of gold and copper. Although its fundamentals have little change, economic demand provides support, and its long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1]. - Copper is in a situation where bulls and bears are competing at a key psychological level. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and there is long - term confidence in copper [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure and is expected to have a supply increase and demand decrease in the long - term. It is advisable to short on rallies [1][9]. - Lead is under pressure due to factors such as the slow recovery of domestic primary lead smelters, the resumption of production of secondary lead enterprises, and weak downstream consumption [1]. - Tin is under pressure as the domestic tin smelting industry is in a state of weak supply and demand, and terminal consumption has entered the off - season [1]. - Aluminum is under pressure because of high - level imports of overseas bauxite, inventory accumulation during the off - season, and a weakening开工率 in the aluminum processing industry [1][11]. - Nickel is weak. Overseas nickel ore prices are stable, but downstream stainless - steel production cuts have slowed, and there is still pressure during the terminal consumption off - season [1][13]. - Industrial silicon is in a correction due to factors such as a decline in the "anti - involution" trading sentiment and the impact of a limit - down in coking coal prices [1]. - Polysilicon is in high - level oscillation. The statement of "sales price not lower than cost" provides strong support, but the spot trading volume is limited [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a weak downward trend. The overall inventory is accumulating, and the market sentiment may return to the fundamentals after reaching a peak [1][15]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Due to the agreement on tariffs between the US and Europe, the risk - aversion sentiment subsided, leading to an adjustment in both domestic and foreign gold and silver [2]. - **基本逻辑**: The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and China and the US are in negotiations. The short - term tariff risk has subsided, but factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, accelerated debt issuance, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping support the long - term bullish logic of gold [2]. - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to the support around 760 for gold and 9050 for silver. Treat silver's short - term adjustment as a trading idea [3]. Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, returning to the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **产业逻辑**: The tight situation of copper concentrates persists. Although the production of electrolytic copper is increasing, the demand has mixed performances. There are concerns about the impact of a potential 50% import tariff on US copper in August on China's copper and copper product exports [5]. - **策略推荐**: The signing of the US - EU trade agreement and China - US negotiations have eased tariff concerns. The US dollar index has risen, putting pressure on copper prices. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and the long - term outlook for copper is positive. The attention range for Shanghai copper is [78,000, 80,000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [9,700, 9,900] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc fell under pressure [8]. - **产业逻辑**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant. Domestic new smelting capacities are being released, and the production of refined zinc is increasing. On the demand side, although the rebound of black steel prices has boosted galvanizing demand confidence, it is currently the off - season, and enterprise开工率 is weak [8]. - **策略推荐**: The cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment, abundant supply, and inventory accumulation during the off - season have put pressure on zinc prices. In the long - term, supply will increase and demand will decrease. It is advisable to short on rallies. The attention range for Shanghai zinc is [22,400, 22,800] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [2,650, 2,850] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina showed a downward trend [10]. - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic market sentiment has changed, production capacity has increased, and inventory has accumulated. For alumina, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite changes [11]. - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to short on rallies for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to changes in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20,000, 20,800] yuan/ton, and alumina is expected to be under pressure [11]. Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices weakened significantly, and stainless steel fell under pressure [12]. - **产业逻辑**: Overseas nickel ore prices are falling, and domestic nickel supply and demand are still weak. Stainless - steel production cuts have slowed, and there is still inventory pressure during the off - season [13]. - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120,000, 123,000] yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 significantly reduced its positions and hit the limit - down [14]. - **产业逻辑**: The overall inventory is accumulating, and the price increase has led to inventory transfer from upstream to the middle. Although there are production cuts in some areas, the production still shows an upward trend. The new - energy vehicle market has a sales decline, and the "anti - involution" policy expectation has become a focus. The supply surplus for the whole year will narrow. The market may return to fundamentals after the sentiment peak [15]. - **策略推荐**: It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach with the price range of [70,000, 73,000] yuan/ton [15].