Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and outlook of fixed income products in the context of the bond market, highlighting the stability of short-term interest rates and the potential for credit bonds to outperform interest rate bonds in the near future [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Review of Fixed Income Product Returns - In the past month, the bond market experienced low volatility with positive returns across various fixed income products. The leading performance was observed in rights-embedded bond funds, followed by medium to long-term bond funds [3][8]. - As of July 17, the returns for different products over the past month were: rights-embedded bond funds at 0.89% (previously 0.54%), medium-term bond funds at 0.22% (previously 0.31%), short-term bond funds at 0.19% (unchanged), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit at 0.17% (previously 0.15%), and cash management products at 0.11% (unchanged) [3][8]. Bond Market Review - The bond market has shown low volatility with mixed performance between short and long-term bonds. The market sentiment improved due to "anti-involution" policies and the delayed imposition of tariffs by the U.S., which bolstered optimistic expectations [10][11]. - The liquidity in the banking sector was relatively relaxed, with the central bank's actions leading to a slight decrease in short-term interest rates. The one-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit rate fell to 1.63% [11][15]. Industry Events Tracking - On July 11, the National Financial Supervision Administration released the "Financial Institutions Product Suitability Management Measures," effective from February 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing consumer protection and regulating financial institutions' suitability management [37]. Outlook for the Bond Market - Short-term expectations indicate stable interbank certificate of deposit rates, while the long-term outlook remains bullish for bonds, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% [1][31]. - Credit bonds are anticipated to perform better than interest rate bonds, with a focus on maintaining a balanced duration strategy and considering high-grade long-term credit bonds for potential gains [1][40]. Fixed Income Product Strategy and Recommendations - For investors needing liquidity management, maintaining cash-like products is advisable, while for conservative investors, holding pure bond products with a potential extension of duration is recommended [40][41]. - For more aggressive investors, the article suggests considering fixed income plus products that include convertible bonds and equity assets, with strategies such as quantitative neutral, index enhancement, and multi-asset approaches [42].

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者田亚雄 刘昊 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并 不把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 新一轮供给侧变局中，尚未有时间表和实施的路线，但市场的氛围整体围绕产能变化预期、成本提升预期进行交易，且击鼓 传花在碳酸锂和工业硅上演之后，或正迈向情绪定价的高点。 反过度竞争在7月初提出之后，到目前为止，尚未公布明确的时间表或可直接实施的方案，这反映出实施的复杂性。参考过往 的行业低价竞争，未来的终局措施或以：建立成本锚定与违规惩戒机制、行政手段加速淘汰落后产能以及审慎补贴发放等方 式展开。 供给侧正成为商品当下定价的重中之重，从焦煤到光伏产业链。 后续成本锚定成为价格中枢的关键位置。 国产煤成本相对分化，山西国企精煤完全成本超1000元/吨（高人工成本+安全投 入），民企成本约700–900元/吨，当前现货价（山西 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", with an expected increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [25] Core Viewpoints - The recent rally in commodity prices is a result of the resonance between supply disruptions and improved expectations, and there are four "suspicious points" in this rally [1] - The divergence between commodity prices and PPI is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound [1] - For the bond market, the significance of monitoring commodity prices lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors. There is a risk of adjustment if expectations boost the fundamentals [1] Summary by Directory Suspicious Point 1: Long - lasting and High - amplitude Increase - The commodity rally has lasted for a month, the longest this year, and has recovered nearly 50% of the decline since the tariff announcement. Technically, it seems more like a market reversal than a short - term rebound [1][4] Suspicious Point 2: Driven by Seemingly Random Factors but with a Rising Price Center - The rally can be divided into three stages: the first stage (604 - 612) was a technical rebound after the release of pessimistic sentiment; the second stage (613 - 624) saw prices rise and then fall due to the Israel - Iran war; the third stage (625 onwards) was driven by the "anti - involution" market. After these stages, the industrial product price index rose by 5.6% compared to June 3 [7][8] - The rising price center is due to three reasons: low prices leading to a high probability of upward movement, improved pessimistic expectations after the China - US leaders' call, and the seasonal tendency for prices to rise during the safety inspection and maintenance months of June and July [10][11] Suspicious Point 3: Lack of Demand - side Support for the Price Rebound - From the perspectives of fundamentals and price spreads, the demand side has been weak. The "old economy" related to real estate has not reversed its weakness, and the real estate market shows "weak volume and price" [15] - There is a divergence between futures and spot prices for some commodities, with the price increase mainly reflecting expectations rather than actual demand [17] Suspicious Point 4: The Commodity Rebound Has Not Yet Appeared in PPI - In June, PPI remained weak, with the year - on - year figure dropping by 0.3 percentage points compared to May. The divergence is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission [19] - The weekly production materials price index has rebounded for three consecutive weeks since June. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound in July [20] Impact on the Bond Market - The significance of monitoring commodity prices for the bond market lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors [1] - Currently, the risk of a fundamental reversal in commodity prices is low, but the price rebound may be transmitted to inflation. There is a high possibility of improvement in July's PPI [1] - In the long run, commodity prices depend on the relative changes in supply and demand. If expectations boost the fundamentals, there is a risk of adjustment in the bond market [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In June 2025, the CPI continued to recover, with the core CPI rising steadily, indicating that domestic demand is still steadily recovering. However, there are signs of a slowdown in consumption momentum. The PPI continued to decline due to structural and seasonal factors, which will drag down the profits of industrial enterprises and is not conducive to the continuous recovery of the CPI. The "anti-involution" policy may be accelerated to promote re - inflation [1][7]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Core CPI YoY Continues to Rise, and Domestic Demand Recovery Continues - In June, the CPI rose 0.1% YoY, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, slightly better than market expectations. The decline in the MoM rate narrowed. The recovery of consumer goods prices was the main driving force for the CPI to turn from decline to growth. The service CPI rose 0.5% YoY, while the consumer goods CPI fell 0.2% YoY, with the decline narrowing [8]. - Food prices fell 0.3% YoY, with the decline narrowing. Beef prices turned positive after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell for the first time after consecutive increases. Energy prices saw a narrower decline, mainly due to rising oil prices [8]. - The core CPI rose 0.7% YoY in June, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, showing a continuous upward trend since February. The MoM growth rate was flat compared to the previous month, slightly better than the seasonal average [8]. - In June, prices of clothing, education, culture and entertainment, healthcare, and other goods and services rose YoY, with the growth rates increasing compared to the previous month. Endogenous consumption continued to recover. With the support of the "trade - in" policy, prices of household appliances and cars continued to recover, but the price of communication tools turned negative for the first time this year [9]. - The recovery of the CPI in June was driven by factors such as the rise in crude oil prices due to the Middle East situation, the improvement of consumer confidence since September 2024, and the "trade - in" policy. However, prices of some policy - supported consumer goods have shown signs of decline [9]. 2. Structural and Seasonal Factors Affect the Decline of PPI Growth - In June, the PPI fell 3.6% YoY, exceeding market expectations of a 3.2% decline and down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The MoM decline was 0.4%, the same as the previous month. Prices of the mining, processing, and raw material industries all declined, with the decline rates widening [18]. - By industry, coal mining and washing, ferrous metal mining, and ferrous metal smelting and rolling had relatively large MoM declines, while oil and gas extraction and non - ferrous metal mining had relatively large increases. The decline in coal prices was due to increased alternative energy generation in summer and sufficient coal stocks. The decline in ferrous metal prices was due to the impact of weather on construction and sufficient supply. The rise in oil prices was mainly due to the escalation of the Israeli - Palestinian conflict [23]. - Since September 2024, China's macro - economy has been generally stable, and the PPI decline rate has briefly narrowed. However, since February 2025, the continuous decline in PPI may be due to supply - side structural factors [23]. 3. Persistent Low Inflation May Accelerate the "Anti - Involution" Policy - Since the Politburo meeting in July 2024 first mentioned preventing "involution - style" competition, "anti - involution" has been mentioned in many important occasions. Given the current low levels of CPI and PPI, the urgency and practical significance of "anti - involution" are stronger, and it may become an important means to promote re - inflation [24]. - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st clearly required to legally regulate the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. On July 3rd, relevant departments and industry associations also took actions related to "anti - involution." Under the expectation of "anti - involution," prices of many commodities have risen. The "anti - involution" is a systematic project of supply - demand re - balance. If policy coordination is achieved, the PPI may turn positive from late 2025 to early 2026 [24][26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation in China, highlighting the challenges of low inflation and the need for effective policy measures to stimulate demand and support economic recovery [4][6][41]. Economic Data Analysis - Recent economic data from May shows marginal improvements in areas such as social financing growth, service consumption, and employment, yet the capital market remains indifferent [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June is reported at -0.1% year-on-year, indicating persistent deflationary pressures [6]. Inflation Expectations - Analysts have differing views on inflation trends for 2025, with some predicting continued low CPI due to weak external demand and potential tariff impacts from U.S. policies [11][12]. - Others argue that global inflationary pressures and domestic policy support could lead to a CPI increase of around 1% in 2025 [15]. Internal Demand Challenges - The article emphasizes the complexity of internal demand issues, with analysts noting that low inflation reflects a combination of wealth erosion, economic downturn, and weakened expectations [17]. - Key factors influencing CPI include core CPI, employment, and consumer spending, with predictions ranging from a slight recovery to continued low inflation depending on economic conditions [19][32]. Policy Responses - The article discusses the need for comprehensive policy measures to address the economic challenges, including support for vulnerable groups and improving overall income distribution [41][43]. - Analysts suggest that relying solely on short-term measures like subsidies may not be sufficient to drive sustainable consumption growth [41]. Market Outlook - The outlook for 2025 remains uncertain, with analysts divided on the potential for economic recovery and inflation resurgence, emphasizing the importance of consumer demand in achieving a stable economic environment [45][46].

以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者张伟栋 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 本文来自微信公众号： 远川投资评论 ，作者：张伟栋，编辑：张婕妤，题图来自：视觉中国 股票市场对经济数据的变化一向敏感，但今年6月似乎是个例外。 其中，最谨慎的可能要属李迅雷。 在去年末发布的《聚焦最终需求——2025年中国经济展望》中，李迅雷预测，2025年物价低位运行 趋势将延续，全年CPI同比甚至将从2024年的0.3%进一步下降到-0.1%，其中的关键影响因素在于 出 口 。 虽然2024年我国的出口表现亮眼，但主要源于"以价换量"。在李迅雷看来，特朗普再次就任总统之 后，将推行重商主义政策加征关税，直接影响我国的外需。同时低价抢出口的策略也使得中国与一些 新兴市场国家产生了利益冲突，可能使中国的出口环境进一步恶化。 而出口转弱，最终会向制造业投资和消费等内需传导，进而影响国内供求格局和物价形势 [1] 。 从刚刚披露的5月经济数据来看，相比前四个月，大部分领域如社融增速、服务消费、就业数据等均 呈现出边际改善的趋势，结果却撞上了资本市场的冷眼旁观。 原因也许并不复杂：当经济发展要向消费转型已经形成一种宏观共识，持续疲软的C ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation in China, highlighting the mixed signals from economic data and the varying predictions regarding inflation and consumer demand for 2025. It emphasizes the importance of internal demand and the challenges in achieving a stable inflation environment. Economic Data Analysis - Recent economic data from May shows marginal improvements in areas such as social financing growth, service consumption, and employment, yet the stock market remains indifferent [2] - The persistent weakness in CPI, which recorded a year-on-year decline of -0.1% in June, reflects a broader consensus on the need for consumption-driven economic transformation [3] Inflation Predictions - Analysts have differing views on inflation trends for 2025, with Li Xunlei predicting a continued low CPI of -0.1%, influenced by external factors like export performance and potential tariffs under a new U.S. administration [6][7] - Conversely, Guo Lei forecasts a CPI increase of 1% for 2025, supported by domestic policies aimed at boosting income and consumption [10] - Zhang Yu presents a more cautious outlook, suggesting that CPI could range from 0.4% to 0.7% depending on the economic recovery trajectory [13][14] Internal Demand Challenges - The article highlights the complex nature of internal demand, with Zhang Yu attributing low inflation to a combination of wealth erosion, economic downturn, and weakened expectations [11] - Key factors affecting CPI include core CPI, which may stabilize or recover slightly due to improvements in employment and income, but overall price pressures are expected to remain [12][27] Policy Responses - The article notes that while policies have been introduced to stimulate consumption, there is a consensus among economists that more substantial measures are needed to support vulnerable groups and enhance overall consumer capacity [36][41] - Li Xunlei and Xing Ziqiang advocate for increasing residents' overall income and improving income distribution to stimulate demand [39][40] Market Outlook - The article concludes that the path to achieving inflation and economic recovery in 2025 will depend on the effectiveness of policy measures and the resilience of consumer demand in the face of ongoing economic challenges [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that it's not the right time to over - allocate commodities, and patience is needed. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond interest rate is expected to be in the range of 1.6 - 1.8%, and Treasury bond futures should be bought on dips. The stock index has a ceiling and a floor [2][3]. - In 2025, the US economy faces "stagflation" or "recession" risks, while China is on a long "re - inflation" path. Based on these economic judgments, there are corresponding trading opportunities and asset - allocation suggestions in the second half of 2025 [8][25][37]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of the First Half of 2025 - **Differentiation of Sino - US Commodities**: In the first half of 2025, US commodities first rose and then fell, while Chinese commodities were weak. Overseas, Trump's tariff policy and the trend of rising initial jobless claims and slowing new employment in the US affected commodity prices. The US had obvious inventory - replenishing imports, with imports from January to March reaching $1.2 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 23%, and retail and food service sales from January to March at $2.1 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Domestically, from March to April, the sales of commercial housing weakened, and the domestic demand was still weak. In May, China's PPI was - 3.3% and continued to decline. Exports were supported by the rush - to - export factor, but overall, under the high - interest - rate environment of the Fed, prices were under pressure [5][6]. 2. Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 2.1 The US: Risk of Economic "Soft Landing" to "Recession" - **Risk of "Stagflation" or "Recession"**: The US government's debt support for residents' income and consumption is difficult to sustain. The US government faces the pressure of reducing fiscal deficits (the fiscal deficit/GDP in 2024 - 25 was still as high as 6.8%). In April 2025, the US fiscal expenditure was $591.8 billion, and the 12 - month Rollsum was $7.09 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%; the fiscal revenue was $850.2 billion, and the 12 - month Rollsum was $5.06 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The annual deficit in April 2025 was $2.03 trillion, accounting for 6.8% of the US GDP in Q1 2025 [8][9]. - **Economic Slowdown**: The real GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2025 was - 0.2% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis, indicating an obvious economic slowdown. It is expected that the real GDP growth rate in 2025 will be between 1.6% - 2.3%, depending on the Fed's interest - rate cut speed and the realization of stable tax - cut policy expectations. Trump's policies have both positive and negative impacts on the US economy [19]. - **High Inflation and Interest - Rate Expectations**: Inflation may remain above the 2% target, forcing the Fed to maintain the policy interest rate above 3.5%. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the US federal funds rate will drop to 3.75%, and the first interest - rate cut in the second half of 2025 is expected to be in October [23]. 2.2 China: A Long "Re - inflation" Road - **Difficulty in PPI Recovery**: In May 2025, China's PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year, and CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year. Under the background of de - globalization and the reconstruction of the Chinese real - estate model, the path for China's PPI to turn positive is long and difficult. The slow recovery of commercial housing sales and M1, as well as the decline in US imports, will lead to a slow recovery of China's PPI [25]. - **Challenges in Inflation Upturn**: China's inflation upturn faces challenges, including the Fed's high - interest - rate policy, the difficulty of the real - estate price recovery, and over - capacity in some industries. To get out of deflation, China can observe three groups of variables: the continuous expansion of base money and stock money, the continuous resilience of external demand exports, and the maintenance of an "active fiscal policy" [25][31][33]. - **Monetary Policy Stance**: Monetary policy will maintain a supportive stance and strengthen the amplitude of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. It is expected that in 2025, China's policy interest rate will be cut by 30 - 40BP in two installments, and the deposit - reserve ratio will be cut by 50 - 100BP in two installments [36]. 3. Allocation Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - **US Economic Situation and Asset Allocation**: It is expected that in the second half of 2025, the resilience of the US economy will decline, consumption and imports will fall, and private investment will be under pressure. The yield of US Treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level with a risk of decline; the US dollar will oscillate with a risk of further weakening; gold can still be bought on dips, but trading opportunities are not obvious. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield will oscillate between 3.8% - 4.5% and is expected to decline; the US dollar is expected to oscillate between 95 - 100 and tend to decline [37][38]. - **China's Economic Situation and Asset Allocation**: The active fiscal policy will support the Chinese economy, and the currency will be further loosened. It is expected that inflation will still be under pressure in the second half of 2025. There is still an expectation of a 30 - 40BP interest - rate cut in the monetary - policy end. With the support of liquidity, the A - share market will maintain active trading, and the yield of Treasury bonds will further decline. Before the policy supports the improvement of the fundamentals, commodity prices will still be suppressed by insufficient demand. The CSI 300 index is expected to be between 3400 - 4400 points; the yield of 10 - year Chinese Treasury bonds is expected to be between 1.6 - 1.8%; commodities are expected to oscillate weakly in the second half of 2025, and attention should be paid to the market opportunities in the third quarter of 2025 [37][38][39].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese stock market and macroeconomic conditions, with a focus on the A-share market and its dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Historical Market Performance**: The A-share market has fluctuated between 2,500 and 3,500 points over the past decade without significant breakthroughs, indicating a lack of decisive upward movement despite various expert predictions [3][4][5]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: The A-share market is characterized by a greater emphasis on financing rather than investment, with companies extracting more funds from the market than they return through dividends or buybacks [3][4]. 3. **Earnings Stability**: The earnings per share (EPS) in the A-share market have remained stable over the past decade, suggesting that stock price fluctuations are primarily driven by changes in valuation influenced by market risk appetite and liquidity conditions [4][5]. 4. **Liquidity Conditions**: The future performance of the market is expected to hinge on liquidity conditions, particularly in light of external uncertainties and internal demand challenges [5][10]. 5. **Predictions for 2025**: The report made several contrarian predictions, including a significant drop in the US stock market, a strong performance from the Chinese market, and a depreciation of the US dollar alongside a surge in gold and precious metals [6][10]. 6. **Real Estate Market Challenges**: The real estate sector continues to be a drag on China's economic growth, with recent declines in sales and prices, indicating that the real estate bubble is still in the process of being deflated [10][14]. 7. **Local Government Debt**: Measures have been introduced to alleviate local government debt burdens, including increasing debt limits and allocating special bond quotas to address hidden debts [10][11]. 8. **Comparative Analysis**: The report draws comparisons between the debt management strategies of China, Japan, and the US, highlighting the importance of timely public sector intervention in managing private sector debt [17][18][19][28]. 9. **Consumer Confidence**: Consumer confidence in China remains at historically low levels, which is exacerbated by declining real estate prices and heavy debt burdens [24][29]. 10. **Future Market Outlook**: The report suggests that without significant monetary easing from the central bank, liquidity conditions are unlikely to improve fundamentally, which could lead to continued market volatility [29][36]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Geopolitical Risks**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel, are noted as potential disruptors to global markets, but may also present buying opportunities for investors [37][38]. 2. **Market Performance Metrics**: The Chinese onshore market has shown modest returns year-to-date, indicating a stable but unremarkable performance compared to global markets [37]. 3. **Investment Strategy**: The focus for investors should be on capturing trading opportunities arising from policy expectation changes rather than relying solely on fundamental growth [37][39].

以下文章来源于CFC金属研究 ，作者王贤伟 CFC金属研究 . 本平台由金融业内人士对宏观数据、行业事件，进行专业的解读和评论，分享专业的价值观点，提出专业的投资策略，力争为普通投资者、产业人士打造 专业的投资交流平台，并无偿提供分析与研究服务。 文 | 王贤伟 来源 | CFC金属研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 铸造铝合金期货上市后主要关注点包括： 1）期货交割量级不确定性较大；2）供需数据难以追踪；3）废铝紧缺难以证实或证伪； 本 文将铸造铝合金主要研究指标整理汇总以供参考。 复盘2007年以来两类铝价，ADC12价格与A00关联程度较高，而ADC12弹性和波动率不及A00，整体表现为下跌周期中ADC12更为抗 跌，而上涨周期则由A00领涨；同时两类铝价基本呈现3年一个完整的涨跌幅周期，目前正处于2023年启动的周期末端。 我们根据铝行业上下游库存周期判断， 25年下半年则将逐步迈入主动去库+被动去库的组合，恰逢偏弱的价格交叉周期。 铸造铝合金现货市场参考的主流报价平台有三个，由低至高依次是江西保太、上海钢联（相差100-200）及上海有色（相差500- 700），因此最便宜交割品需要 ...