黑色建材组 黑色建材日报 2026-01-23 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3124 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.224%）。当日注册仓单 28244 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 174.73 万手，环比增加 5016 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘 价为 3287 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 1 元/吨（0.030%）。 当日注册仓单 179427 吨, 环比减少 10475 吨。主 力合约持仓量为 145.33 ...

2026开年以来，以贵金属、有色金属为代表的周期资源品走出强势行情。1月21日，伦敦现货黄金历史 上首次突破4800美元/盎司；1月14日，现货白银突破90美元/盎司，续创历史新高；国内市场上，铜、 铝、锡亦悄然创下新高，稀土、锂、钴等金属开启了一轮强劲的主升浪行情。 截至1月21日，中证上游资源产业指数年内涨幅已超12%。在刚刚过去的2025年，该指数更是斩获超 56%的涨幅，走势尤为亮眼。本轮行情的背后，既有全球宏观流动性环境转向带来的确定性支撑，也离 不开新一轮技术革命所催生的产业需求，共同为资源品的中长期成长打开了空间。 展望未来，在再通胀预期升温、全球资源安全战略强化以及新兴产业需求扩张的多重因素共振下，资源 品板块的中长期配置逻辑依然清晰。面对这样一个可能延续的"新周期"，投资者应如何把握机遇？ 在众多相关投资工具中，中欧周期优选混合基金凭借其明确的周期赛道布局与突出的主动管理能力，力 争为投资者把握本轮资源行情提供有力抓手。 该基金在去年实现了接近翻倍的投资回报，2025年，中欧周期优选混合A类累计收益98.41%，对应的业 绩比较基准为45.72%，显示出优秀的超额收益获取能力。 历史超额收益 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's current stance on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating that despite a criminal investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice, there are no immediate plans to dismiss Powell [1] - Trump mentioned potential successors for Powell, including former Fed governor Kevin Walsh and current National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, while ruling out Treasury Secretary Scott Pruitt as a candidate [1] - Powell's term as Fed Chairman is set to end in May 2026, but his term as a Fed governor extends until 2028 [1] Group 2 - The article highlights ongoing concerns regarding U.S. inflation and employment, suggesting that while inflation may stabilize, issues related to job market performance and affordability persist [2]

- The report discusses a rotation model for micro-cap stocks, which uses the relative net value of micro-cap stocks to the "Mao Index" as a key indicator. If the relative net value is above its 243-day moving average, the model suggests investing in micro-cap stocks; otherwise, it recommends switching to the Mao Index. Additionally, the 20-day closing price slope of both indices is considered, and the model opts for the index with a positive slope when their directions diverge [19][25][27] - A timing indicator is constructed based on the 10-year government bond yield (threshold: 0.3) and the volatility crowding degree of micro-cap stocks (threshold: 0.55). If either indicator reaches its threshold, a closing signal is triggered [19][25] - The macro timing model recommends a 60% equity allocation for January, with signal strengths of 50% for economic growth and 60% for monetary liquidity. The model's year-to-date return is 14.59%, compared to 26.87% for the Wind All A Index [44][45][47] - Eight major stock selection factors are tracked across different stock pools (All A-shares, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000). Growth (2.15%) and consensus expectation (0.54%) factors performed well in terms of IC mean, while technical, value, and volatility factors underperformed [49][50][52] - Convertible bond selection factors are constructed based on the relationship between the underlying stock and the convertible bond. The valuation factor uses the parity-to-floor premium rate. Last week, the IC mean of the consensus expectation and growth factors for underlying stocks was relatively high [57][59][60]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,232, up 0.32% for the day and 2.35% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.92% to 4,120, with a year-to-date increase of 3.82% [1] - The US markets showed positive performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.48% and the S&P 500 up 0.65% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the financial sector increased by 0.20%, while the real estate sector rose by 0.32% [2] - Chinese stocks saw gains in materials, consumer discretionary, and integrated enterprises, while consumer staples and utilities declined [3] - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 11.8% since the beginning of 2026, outperforming the MSCI China Index which increased by 9.1% [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's CPI growth has slightly increased, reaching a near two-year high, driven by rising food and gold jewelry prices [4] - The US non-farm payrolls for December fell short of expectations, indicating a weakening job market, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.4% [4] - The basic medical insurance expenditure in China showed a recovery with a 0.5% growth in 2025, compared to a 5.5% increase in 2024 [9] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The market size for patented drugs in China is estimated to be around 300-400 billion RMB, with domestic innovative drugs accounting for about 1/3 of this market [6] - The global pharmaceutical market is projected to reach 1.74 trillion USD, with China's market size at 166 billion USD, representing only 9.5% of the global market [7] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going overseas is expected to continue, with a significant increase in BD (business development) transactions projected for 2025 [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The bond market experienced a "poor start" at the beginning of 2026 due to multiple factors such as the strong performance of the equity and commodity markets, large - scale government bond issuance at the beginning of the year, and increased redemption pressure on funds. Although some policies are beneficial to the bond market, the market still has concerns about the bond market's performance in January and 2026 [1][2][11]. - The commodity market shows a "re - inflation" trading logic at the beginning of the year, but the sustainability of the commodity price increase remains to be observed. If the actual situation does not meet expectations, it may bring trading opportunities for the bond market [3][39]. - For the bond market strategy, the 10y Treasury bond is close to the high point of the shock range, and the leverage strategy is still effective. The allocation of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds of banks is better than trading [3][4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. The bond market experienced a "poor start" - **Reason 1: The strong performance of the equity and commodity markets suppresses the bond market** - The PMI in December rebounded counter - seasonally, and policies were introduced, boosting the opening - year macro - expectations. The Shanghai Composite Index stood above 4000 points, and the Wind All - A Index rose 5.1%. - The expectation of continued fiscal efforts and investment recovery in 2026 led to the warming of re - inflation trading. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 2.5% month - on - month, with metal varieties being relatively strong [1][12][14]. - **Reason 2: The large - scale issuance of government bonds at the beginning of the year raises concerns about supply** - The issuance scale of key - term government bonds at the beginning of the year was significantly larger than that of the same period last year, causing supply concerns. The current government bond issuance is in line with the neutral issuance speed under a 4% deficit ratio, and there may be room for acceleration in the future. - The bidding for local bonds in the first week of January was not good, and the spread between local bonds and government bonds has exceeded 20bp. Future policies to control bond - issuing costs need attention [19][21][24]. - **Reason 3: Increased redemption pressure and continuous net selling by funds** - At the beginning of the year, the funds for fund volume - boosting flowed back, and the scale of credit bond ETFs decreased rapidly after the New Year. - Since the beginning of the year, affected by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw effect, inflation expectations, and supply concerns, funds have continuously sold bonds net, mainly old - term policy financial bonds within 10 years and inter - bank certificates of deposit [26]. 2. Is the commodity market trading re - inflation? - The commodity market shows a "re - inflation" logic, with strong performance in non - precious metals and mid - upstream sectors such as non - ferrous and black metals. The driving forces include policy - induced macro - expectation improvement, the capital effect of precious metals, and the resonance of risk preferences during the equity spring rally. - Specific factors include the repair of undervalued sectors by speculative funds, the tightening of coal supply, the early - stage production of industrial products after the holiday, and the bottoming - out and recovery of inflation expectations. However, the current trading is mainly at the expectation level, and the sustainability of the commodity price increase remains to be observed [30][33][34]. 3. Bond market strategy: The 10y Treasury bond is close to the high point, the leverage strategy is still effective, and the allocation of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds is better than trading - **The 10y Treasury bond is close to the high point of the shock range, and the 1.9% level has allocation value** - It is expected that the 10y Treasury bond is close to the high point of the shock range, and the 1.9% level is worth allocating. It can be gradually built according to the liability situation. - The 10y Treasury bond fluctuates around OMO + 30 - 50bp as the core range, with an additional 5bp of possible extreme fluctuations. - The first quarter may be the high - point period of the bond market shock, so the current 1.9% level has allocation value [38][43]. - **Can the leverage strategy continue?** - At the beginning of the year, the funds are relatively stable and loose, and the bond market leverage level has increased significantly. The carry - trade spread is still at a relatively high level compared with the same period last year, so the leverage strategy is still effective. - In the middle and late ten - days, factors such as the tax period and government bond payment may cause fluctuations in capital prices, but it is unlikely to tighten significantly. The marginal change of certificate of deposit pricing can be observed, and the leverage level can be adjusted flexibly if necessary [44][47][49]. - **How to participate in the current Tier 2 and perpetual bonds of banks?** - **From the allocation perspective**: Currently, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds within 2 years have no obvious advantages compared with medium - term notes of the same rating. For 2 - 3y bonds, some city and rural commercial bank entities can be appropriately selected for bottom - position allocation. Institutions with stable liability ends can participate in the allocation of 4 - 5y bonds. - **From the trading perspective**: If the holding period is less than 1 month, the 10y interest - rate bond is better than the 5y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. If the holding period is 3 months, the 5y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds can better reflect the coupon and riding value. Considering the current headwinds in the bond market, the trading strategy is recommended to prioritize 10y interest - rate bonds, and the trading of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds should wait for a favorable market [53][58]. 4. Review of the interest - rate bond market: The stock - bond seesaw and supply concerns lead to a steeper yield curve - **Funding situation**: The central bank conducted net reverse - repurchase withdrawals, and the funding situation was stable and balanced [69]. - **Primary issuance**: The net financing of government bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, while the net financing of policy financial bonds decreased [74]. - **Benchmark changes**: The term spread of government bonds widened, and the term spread of China Development Bank bonds narrowed [81].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slowdown of incremental capital inflow into the bond market as the commodity market strengthens, highlighting a shift in market sentiment and investment strategies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The 30-year government bond futures have shown sensitivity to market expectations, with the main contract price hitting a low of 110.40 yuan, the lowest since October 2024, indicating a bearish sentiment in the bond market [2][3]. - The recent economic recovery and rising stock market have increased risk appetite among investors, leading to a significant shift away from the bond market [3][4]. - The long-term bond yields are expected to rise, with predictions that the 30-year bond yield may exceed previous highs by over 40 basis points in the second half of 2025, reflecting concerns over fiscal expansion and inflation expectations [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The current environment presents challenges for bond investments, with significant pressure on long-term rates compared to short-term rates, necessitating a shift in investment strategies towards neutral duration and tactical trading in a range-bound market [4][7]. - The article notes a growing opportunity for alternative fixed-income strategies, such as multi-strategy, FOF, and CTA quantitative products, as capital flows out of low-yield deposits into equities [7]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - Recent inflation data shows a slight increase in CPI by 0.8% year-on-year, while PPI has decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, indicating mixed signals in the economy [3]. - The net supply of government bonds is projected to reach 17.4 trillion yuan in 2026, which is 1.4 trillion yuan higher than the actual net financing in 2025, suggesting a potential supply-demand imbalance in the bond market [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, and the arbitrage strategy is neutral [6] Core View - Consumption shows signs of turning to the off - season but still has rigidity. Social inventory accumulation is slow, and the spot market supply remains tight with firm spot premiums. After the absolute price drops, downstream still maintains rigid - demand procurement. Domestic concentrate TC has stopped falling, while imported concentrate is still slightly declining. Although smelters' raw material inventory has increased after winter storage, the available days are still low, and procurement demand remains. The comprehensive smelting loss of domestic smelters has widened, with more maintenance in December, and the supply pressure has decreased significantly month - on - month. There is a possibility that the output in January will fall short of expectations. The fundamental data is still bullish, and there is optimism about future consumption. The interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The current market sentiment may decline, but the decline range of zinc prices may be limited [5] Summary by Related Content Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is - $45.20 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 24,170 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 100 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 24,090 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 24,100 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On January 8, 2026, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24,190 yuan/ton, closed at 23,975 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 151,811 lots, and the position was 83,786 lots. The highest intraday price reached 24,230 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 23,845 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of January 8, 2026, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 118,500 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 108,000 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from the previous trading day [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend but with limited operability on the trading surface [1] - Silver: ★☆★, with the white star suggesting a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend and poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The bullish logic of precious metals remains unchanged, but capital sentiment leads to sharp fluctuations. After exchanges at home and abroad adjust margin and trading restrictions, market volatility is still high. It is advisable to participate cautiously and maintain a long - position approach after volatility declines [1] - The supply side of palladium is brittle, and it is greatly dragged down by the decline in demand for automobile exhaust catalysts. Platinum benefits from high investment enthusiasm and the prospect of large - scale application of hydrogen energy. The fundamental expectation of palladium is weaker than that of platinum. The short - term market fluctuates too much, and the platinum - palladium market may enter a shock market after a wave - reduction adjustment [2] - In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times. At the beginning of the 15th Five - Year Plan in China, the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies are positive. The re - inflation trading is not fully carried out. Platinum should be allocated long - term on dips, and palladium is expected to follow platinum prices passively [2] Other Summaries Geopolitical Situation - The US launched a "three - hour lightning war" against Venezuela, codenamed "Absolute Determination". The Venezuelan vice - president is acting as the president. Trump threatened the acting president of Venezuela and said he "absolutely needs Greenland". The US lifted restrictions on the Caribbean airspace, and the EU issued a statement without condemning the US. Maduro is expected to "appear in court for the first time" in New York on January 5th [2] Economic Data and Events - The US will release a series of economic data such as non - farm payrolls this week. Last month's data showed an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate. Trump previously said he would announce the candidate for the Fed chairman in early January, which will greatly affect future interest - rate cut expectations and may bring large fluctuations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the weakening of the US dollar and the improvement of risk appetite led to a steeper curve overseas, while in China, loose funds drove the yield curve to steepen. The bond market remained volatile due to the supply - demand contradiction at the long end [2]. - In 2026, the PPI is facing three positive factors: the tail - lifting factor, imported inflation, and the continued effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. Under the neutral scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. The mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors to significantly affect the bond market [3][55]. - Currently, the bond market is in a wait - and - see state. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. There are some structural opportunities, such as the follow - up rise opportunity of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression opportunity of credit spreads [4]. Summary by Directory PART1: December 2025 - Curve Steepening Driven by Overseas and Domestic Factors Overseas - In December 2025, the Fed announced reserve management - style purchases (RMP) and continued to cut interest rates. The US dollar index weakened, liquidity improved, the US stock market rose, and risk appetite recovered. The US bond yield curve steepened due to factors like Fed's short - term bond purchase, market concerns about Fed independence, and rising commodity prices. Precious and industrial metals performed well, with copper benefiting from AI demand and gold and silver supported by geopolitical events [10][16]. Domestic - In November 2025, the domestic economic fundamentals showed a divergence between quantity and price, and in December, both supply and demand declined. The capital market was generally loose, and the overnight interest rate hit a new low for the year. The bond market remained volatile due to the long - end supply - demand contradiction, and the yield curve steepened [17][23]. - In terms of institutional behavior, large banks and insurance companies, as allocation players, increased their bond - buying in the secondary market in December. Large banks added some policy - related financial bonds and focused on 5 - 7 - year varieties. Insurance companies mainly added long - term treasury bonds. Trading players became conservative. Rural commercial banks mainly invested in certificates of deposit, funds reduced duration and mainly sold long - term treasury bonds, and wealth management products seasonally reduced bond allocation and slightly increased credit bond allocation [26][35][47]. PART2: How the 2026 Re - inflation Narrative May Affect the Bond Market 2026 PPI's Three Positive Factors - The tail - lifting factor can support the PPI to turn positive in the second half of 2026 even without new price - increasing factors [55]. - Imported inflation may occur as overseas capital expenditure and manufacturing investment are likely to rise in 2026. The US deficit rate may expand, and the Fed's new round of easing may release emerging market countries' capital expenditure demand [57]. - The "anti - involution" policy has shown a supporting effect on the PPI. Since August 2025, the month - on - month PPI of the mining industry has turned positive, driving the overall PPI to turn positive since October [60]. PPI Forecast under Different Scenarios - Under the pessimistic scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second half of 2026 with an average monthly PPI growth rate of 0%. Under the neutral scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.1%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.2%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in April 2026 and exceed 2% in the second half of the year [67]. PPI's Impact on the Bond Market - Historically, during the four PPI upward cycles since 2009, three typical upward periods were driven by the resonance of domestic and overseas demand or supply - demand. The PPI and the bond market generally move in the same direction, but there were several periods of divergence, mainly due to strong economic recovery expectations or PPI being mainly affected by the supply side while the domestic demand did not improve significantly and the monetary policy remained loose [69][71]. - In 2026, the mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors such as total demand, central bank's capital management, financial institutions' liability - side stability, and the flow of activated household deposits to significantly affect the bond market. The trading of typical total assets based on re - inflation may have limited odds [78]. PART3: Bond Market Strategy for January 2026 - In January 2026, the bond market may still be in a wait - and - see period. Potential risks include government bond supply pressure, the spring rally in the equity market, and the first - quarter credit boom. Potential positive factors include the possible relaxation of large banks' bond - allocation pressure and the relatively loose capital market, with a higher probability of a reserve - requirement ratio cut than an interest - rate cut in January [81]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. Structurally, there are opportunities such as the follow - up rise of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression of credit spreads in credit bonds [4][83].