炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 黄金在2025年表现亮眼，全年创下超过50次历史新高，累计涨幅超过60%。这一走势受多重因素支撑， 包括不断升温的地缘政治和经济不确定性、走弱的美元以及价格动能增强。无论是投资者还是各国央行 都在提高黄金配置，希望借此实现分散化和稳定性。 展望2026年，世界黄金协会认为，前景仍由持续的地缘经济不确定性所主导。当前金价大体反映了市场 对宏观经济的共识预期，如果这些条件保持不变，黄金可能继续维持区间波动。 但是，该机构也认为，结合今年的经验来看，2026年很可能再度出现意外。如果经济增速放缓、利率进 一步下行，黄金可能获得温和升幅；若全球风险显著上升、经济陷入更深衰退，黄金则可能迎来强劲表 现。相反，如果特朗普政府的政策取得成功，经济加速增长、地缘风险下降、美联储被迫延后或逆转降 息路径，美元走强，黄金将承压下行。 此外，世界黄金协会认为，央行购金需求与黄金回收趋势也可能进一步影响市场。最关键的是，在波动 性仍高的背景下，黄金作为投资组合分散化工具和稳定器的角色依旧关键。 下图显示，世界黄金协会指出，若市场波动和地缘风险持 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-04 海外升水高位难降 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为250.98美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化50元/吨至22790元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水55元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日20元/吨至22700元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-35元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日20元/吨至22690元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-45元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-03沪锌主力合约开于22745元/吨，收于22755元/吨，较前一交易日50元/吨，全天交易日成交 106416手，全天交易日持仓104585手，日内价格最高点达到22800元/吨，最低点达到22695元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-03，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为14.43万吨，较上期变化-0.38万吨。截止2025-12-03，LME 锌库存为52450吨，较上一交易日变化75吨。 市场分析 海外现货升水高位难下滑，海外库存绝对值处于低位，出口利润扩大，国内现货升贴水持续表现为向好趋势，国 内仓单库存小幅下滑，基本面方面全面偏向利好，国内社会库存持续下滑。11月冶炼端产量环比回 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 封帆 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21800元/吨，较上一交易日变化90元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-50 元/吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21680元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨 至-170元/吨；佛山A00铝价录21690元/吨，较上一交易日变化80元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变 化-15元/吨至-160元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-03日沪铝主力合约开于21940元/吨，收于21940元/吨，较上一交易日变化85元/ 吨，最高价达21970元/吨，最低价达到21825元/吨。全天交易日成交161612手，全天交易日持仓249248 手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-03，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化0.0万吨，仓单库 存66833吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存533400吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-03SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2825元/吨，山东价格录得2760元/吨，河南价格 录 ...

文 | 钱钱 编辑 | 阿景 今年资本市场杀出一匹黑马，有色金属板块全年涨幅冲到行业第一，贵金属更是涨得让人眼花缭乱。 国际金价年内一度涨了不少，白银更夸张，单周就涨了15%，全年下来快翻倍了。 今天就来好好聊聊这波行情是怎么起来的，还有黄金市场现在吵得不可开交是咋回事。 说到有色金属这波上涨，金融属性的推动得先提一提。 美联储那边降息的风声从年初就没停过，到了年底预期越来越浓。 美元一弱，以美元计价的这些金属自然就水涨船高。 11月底还有个大消息，说鲍威尔可能要辞职，这一下市场直接炸了锅，都觉得2026年货币政策要更宽 松，贵金属当天就直线拉涨。 光有钱推动还不够，需求端也得跟上趟。 全球经济今年有点"再通胀"的意思，虽然复苏不算猛，但好歹是在往上走。 铜、铝这些工业金属的需求也就有了基础。 更关键的是，能源转型和人工智能这两个风口正好撞上了，电动汽车、光伏风电抢着要铜铝，AI数据 中心耗电厉害又得建电网，上游原材料想不火都难。 供给端这边更是把行情推上了高潮。 全球铜矿现在是老矿产量降，新矿又没几个能投产的，生产还老出问题。 国内的铝产能卡得更死，"双碳"政策把天花板钉得死死的。 这种供需失衡的情况，只要 ...

Group 1: Housing Market Trends - The willingness of residents to purchase homes has decreased, leading to a significant decline in the correlation between housing prices and overall price levels[1] - The average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities has dropped by over 30% year-on-year since Q4[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index continues to decline but is still 48.63% higher than the level at the beginning of 2015, with first-tier cities seeing an increase of 85.16%[1] Group 2: Price Movements - New home prices fell by 0.5% month-on-month in October, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year[1] - Second-hand home prices also saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.7%, with a similar expansion in the decline[1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have remained at low levels, indicating a decoupling from housing prices since 2022[1] Group 3: Economic Implications - The weakening housing market has led to a decrease in consumer spending, as falling home prices do not affect income expectations for non-homeowners[1] - Financial asset price increases have partially offset the negative impact of declining housing prices on the wealth of homeowners[1] - Transfer income growth has alleviated the drag on resident income growth caused by falling housing prices, with transfer income increasing by 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year[1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The data suggests that the influence of housing prices on inflation may be limited in the coming year, as the correlation between price levels and housing prices continues to decline[1] - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global economic downturns[1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current silver price trend shows dual - wheel drive characteristics, with the core being the increased instability of the credit currency system and the indication by the gold - silver ratio that the global economy is moving towards re - inflation [1]. - The fundamental aspect of silver is generally strong, but its strength is mainly based on investment and allocation needs rather than consumption - based demand [1]. - New industrial demands, especially the explosive growth of photovoltaic demand for silver, form the base of silver demand, while financial factors are the leading force in the incremental demand for silver [1]. - The gradual repair of the gold - silver ratio is a core feature of each silver bull market, and it also measures market risk preference this year [2]. - The silver bull market is in the middle - to - late stage, but there are still many factors supporting the continued strengthening of silver prices, and the strong price state will last for a long time [2]. Summary by Related Questions 1. Core drivers, sustainability, and fundamental changes of silver price increase - The core drivers are the instability of the credit currency system and the indication of re - inflation by the gold - silver ratio. The fundamental aspect of silver is strong, and the strength comes from investment and allocation needs [1]. 2. Roles of new industrial and financial factors in silver demand - Photovoltaic demand has increased from less than 5% to 20% in the past five years, forming the base of silver demand. Financial factors are the leading force in the incremental demand [1]. 3. Nature of the gold - silver ratio repair - The repair of the gold - silver ratio is a core feature of the silver bull market and measures market risk preference this year. When market risk aversion eases, the gold - silver ratio decreases, often leading to an independent silver market [2]. 4. Stage of the silver bull market - The silver bull market is in the middle - to - late stage in terms of time, but there are many factors supporting the continued rise of silver prices, and the strong price will last for a long time [2].

2026年美国经济最大的风险是"再通胀"，这源自于经济持续走弱后联储超预期的持续降息，和特朗 普"全力拼中选"所推行的更宽松的财政政策；进而引发对AI叙事的进一步怀疑，以及更大的预期波 动。 通胀是明年中选的硬约束，特朗普会在明年11月中选前尽量避免明显的再通胀，但融资条件（金融环 境）又是AI叙事的硬约束。特朗普需要平衡好选票（中期选举）与股票（AI叙事）之间的关系：既要维 持美国K型经济的下层基础，又要避免造成AI泡沫破裂，导致经济滑向深层次的衰退。 2026年的美国经济将在失衡中围绕股票与选票的平衡展开。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 前言： 当下的美国经济正处在全面放缓的过程中：就业——消费链条放缓、失业率的上行趋势正在持 续。即便2026年美国的财政和货币双宽，经济结构的分化仍将延续，AI相关领域的火热与实体经济的 疲软形成"冷热缺口"将继续扩大而非弥合。 过去15个月，美国经济经历了150bp降息后并未得到明显提振，而将"AI叙事进行到底"则需要更加宽 松的货币政策。同时，为了赢得中选，2026年美国将采取更加宽松的财政政策，在《大美丽法案》逐 步落地的基础上，赤字率水平将回到6%，乃至更高水平 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook for China and the global market, with a focus on investment strategies for 2026 and 2027. It involves insights from Morgan Stanley's macro strategy team and industry analysts. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Outlook for 2026 and 2027** The team anticipates that 2026 will be a challenging year for China as it continues to navigate deflationary pressures, with a more optimistic outlook expected in 2027. The consensus is that the economy will still be in a transition phase in 2026, with gradual improvements expected in 2027 [5][7][14]. 2. **Investment Sentiment and Market Divergence** There is a notable divergence in market sentiment regarding investment strategies for 2026. Some investors are optimistic about a bull market similar to the one seen since September 2024, while others are cautious, preferring safer assets like bonds [6][10]. 3. **GDP Growth Projections** The projected nominal GDP growth for 2026 is slightly above 4%, indicating that the economy will still be experiencing deflationary conditions. This is more conservative than market expectations [7][14]. 4. **External and Internal Demand Concerns** The outlook for external demand is relatively stable, particularly due to the U.S. market's growth driven by the Inflation Reduction Act and AI investments. However, internal demand, especially in real estate and traditional consumption, remains a concern [9][10]. 5. **Real Estate Policy Expectations** The call discusses potential stimulus measures for the real estate sector, including the issuance of local and central government bonds to support infrastructure projects. There is speculation about mortgage interest subsidies to support the housing market [10][11][12]. 6. **Consumer Spending and Fiscal Policy** The team expects continued fiscal support for consumer spending, particularly in sectors like home appliances and automobiles. However, significant expansion into service sector support may not occur until the second half of the year [12][14]. 7. **Market Valuation and Investment Opportunities** The valuation of the Minsheng China Index has increased from a P/E ratio of 9 to around 13, which is seen as sustainable. The team believes that while there are challenges, the market has transitioned from a value trap to a growth-oriented valuation [28][29]. 8. **U.S. Market Dynamics** The U.S. market is expected to see a broad-based recovery, not solely driven by large-cap tech stocks. The anticipated impact of the Inflation Reduction Act and AI applications across various sectors is expected to support overall market growth [19][20][24]. 9. **Risks and Monitoring Indicators** The team emphasizes the importance of monitoring specific indicators, such as corporate earnings expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, to adjust their investment strategies accordingly [22][24]. 10. **Sector-Specific Insights** The automotive industry is highlighted as a sector undergoing transformation, with ongoing discussions about the impact of policy changes and competition on investment dynamics [64][65]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call highlights the importance of understanding the underlying economic data discrepancies, such as the divergence between fixed asset investment and GDP growth, which may indicate underlying economic pressures [42][44]. - The discussion on the potential for a "deep tech moment" in China, similar to past technological breakthroughs, suggests that significant advancements could positively impact market sentiment and valuations [34][32]. - The cautious approach towards the "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement indicates a belief that while it may lead to long-term improvements, short-term impacts on investment demand and overall economic activity may be limited [52][54].

图片来源：视觉中国 2025年的资本市场，有色金属板块的强势表现几乎贯穿全年。行至年末，该板块年内涨幅约70%，在全部行业排名第一，甚至力压因AI叙事强劲而大放异 彩的光模块。该板块内，贵金属价格更是屡创新高，国际金价年内涨幅一度接近60%，近期重新站上4200美元，白银价格则单周大涨15%，年内涨幅已近 100%。 然而，正当市场为这份成绩单欢呼时，洪灝、李蓓、付鹏三位知名投资人对黄金前景却发出不一样的声音，引发广泛关注。 对于有色金属板块（包括贵金属、工业金属和稀有金属等）的崛起，市场普遍将美联储降息预期视为重要的"催化剂"，这在近期体现得尤为明显：随着市 场对12月降息的预期明显升温，美元走弱直接推动了以美元计价的有色金属新一轮行情。值得一提的是，11月30日，有海外消息称鲍威尔将在美东时间本 周一晚上7点举行的紧急会议上宣布辞职，如若成真将意味着美联储的政策立场可能在2026年后转向更为鸽派，对有色金属板块尤其是贵金属带来直接刺 激。 但有色金属在金融市场掀起的这股"完美风暴"，关键在于其背后存在着多重坚实逻辑。 除了降息带来的金融属性利好，全球范围内的"再通胀"与温和复 苏预期，为铜、铝等工业金属的 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a slight rebound after adjustments, but all three major indices closed down in November, with expectations for a structural market in December and significant policy windows approaching [1] - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2% in November, with production and new orders indices at 50.0% and 49.2% respectively, indicating slight improvements [2] - The establishment of a Commercial Space Administration by the National Space Administration marks a significant step for China's commercial space industry, indicating a focus on high-quality development [3] Group 2 - CITIC Securities emphasizes the need to focus on resource products and traditional manufacturing opportunities, particularly in sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [4] - China Galaxy Securities predicts a structural market in December, with a focus on defensive sectors and emerging trends in AI, quantum technology, and aerospace [5] - China Aviation Securities notes that A-shares are currently lacking a sustained main line but may present valuable layout opportunities in December due to upcoming policy windows [6] Group 3 -招商基金 recommends a "barbell" investment strategy, balancing high-growth sectors like technology and biomedicine with undervalued cyclical assets [7] - Ping An Fund believes the innovative drug sector is entering a phase focused on fundamentals, with a shift from valuation reassessment to performance realization expected by 2026 [8] - Invesco Great Wall Fund advocates for a "light index, heavy structure" approach, focusing on company valuations and fundamentals while considering short-term volatility [9]