Group 1 - A-shares experienced a narrow range of consolidation on April 28, with bank stocks strengthening, as China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank reached historical highs during the session [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.2% to 3288.41 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.62% and 0.65% respectively, with the CSI A500 down by 0.25% [1] - A-share trading volume was 1.08 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - As of April 28, 2025, a total of 4706 listed companies in A-shares had disclosed their Q1 reports, with 2121 companies reporting a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, accounting for approximately 45.07% [1] - Dongwu Securities analyzed that the medium-term outlook for China's monetary policy is leaning towards "loose monetary" [1] - The People's Bank of China implemented an excess renewal of MLF in April, signaling liquidity adjustment and potentially paving the way for "moderate easing" [1] Group 3 - The A500 ETF fund (512050) tracks the CSI A500 Index, employing a dual strategy of industry balanced allocation and leading selection, covering all sub-sectors [2] - The fund utilizes a cyclical sampling method to maintain dynamic balance, closely tracking changes in China's economic structure, and integrating value and growth attributes [2] - This approach aims to help investors smooth out style-switching volatility and achieve one-click allocation of core A-share assets [2]

东吴证券认为，特斯拉Optimus量产倒计时（2029年百万台目标）及国内首届人形机器人马拉松催化机 器人板块活跃。同时资金也向稀土永磁、碳纤维等上游材料扩散。这对于市场情绪的修复是好事，但由 于机器人板块是老热点，其持续性如何有待观察。美团无人机物流资质获批刺激万丰奥威（002085）、 中信海直（000099）午后涨停，板块成交额突破500亿元，政策红利与商业化落地预期共振。与机器人 板块类似，低空经济板块也是老树开新花，未来能有多大的持续性还要看能不能有新的龙头出现。 东莞证券认为，周三，市场全天高开后震荡分化，三大指数涨跌不一。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，个 股涨多跌少。海外方面，美国总统表示，他无意解雇美联储主席；明尼阿波利斯联储主席表示，美联储 的独立性是实现良好经济运行的基础，强调政策将根据数据推动。市场对于美联储独立性的担忧暂时缓 解，全球避险情绪有所下降，黄金出现调整。国内方面，二季度国内宏观政策进入集中发力期，政策将 重点聚焦"振消费、稳楼市、稳股市、促民企"等关键领域，通过政策协同畅通国内大循环。货币政策方 面，预计重心将由一季度防风险转向稳增长，若美联储降息落地或促国内宽货币跟进。往后看 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market was strong last week, with short - end credit spreads compressing and secondary perpetual bond spreads slightly rising. Before the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the downward direction of long - end interest rates may remain unchanged. Although the implementation time of policy easing needs to wait, it is not necessarily a negative for long - term bonds. At present, the duration strategy is still relatively dominant, and the portfolio can maintain a medium - to - high duration. 3 - 5 - year medium - to - high - grade credit bonds also have allocation value [2][3][29] Summary by Directory I. The impact of the escalation of reciprocal tariffs on the fundamentals has not yet emerged, and further policy support is needed - Last week, the reciprocal tariffs between China and the United States continued to escalate, with the tariff rate increase reaching 125% on both sides, and the total US tariff rate on Chinese goods exceeding 145%. However, the US also announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs above 10% for other countries and exemption for some electronic products, which may ease the pressure on China's re - export trade [7] - Due to the trade shock and unstable policy expectations, the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets were all under pressure, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield remaining high at around 4.5% and the US dollar index falling below 100. The US has not achieved its goals of reducing the trade deficit, promoting manufacturing reshoring, and cutting the fiscal deficit, and may take other measures in the future, so the global market may still face volatility [8] - China's economy has enhanced its resilience and preparedness for potential tariff risks. The 3 - month export growth of 12.3% was mainly affected by the Spring Festival shift. After adjusting for the seasonal factor, the actual export growth has weakened marginally, but the impact of tariffs has not fully emerged. However, after the escalation of bilateral tariffs, China's exports may be affected, and it is estimated that it may impact GDP by 1.5% - 2%, so domestic policies need to be strengthened [12][15][17] II. The central bank's attitude towards the capital market is gradually returning to normal, but reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may still need to wait - The market's expectation of looser capital has increased, but historical experiences show that significant drops in capital interest rates below policy rates are usually preceded by signals such as continuous reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts by the central bank or a continuous increase in bank net lending. Currently, the central bank's open - market operations and bank net lending do not show such signals [18] - The "Financial Times" put forward three conditions for "choosing the right time for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", and although these factors have emerged, their impacts are not yet prominent. The central bank is still weighing between stabilizing the bond market and reducing costs. It may lower the priority of stabilizing the bond market and advance the policy normalization, with DR007 likely to return to the 1.65% - 1.7% range, but further reduction may require the coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies. Reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may still need to wait, but relevant information is likely to emerge around the Politburo meeting in April [20][21] - The loosening of the capital market last week was partly due to the large - scale net repayment of government bonds. However, this week, the net payment of government bonds will reach 797.8 billion yuan, the highest since mid - December last year. Although the probability of a significant tightening of funds is limited, the short - term capital market may not loosen significantly [22] - The March financial data was released on Sunday. The new social financing scale reached 5.89 trillion yuan, and the stock growth rate rose to 8.4%. The increase was mainly due to the rise in credit and government bond net financing. The new credit of residents and enterprises was affected by factors such as the expected increase in consumer loan interest rates and the convenience of platform working capital loans after the replacement of hidden debts. The subsequent use of replacement bonds may have a negative impact on credit, and more attention should be paid to the changes in domestic policies under external shocks [25][27][28] III. Before the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the downward direction of interest rates remains unchanged - Although the implementation of tariffs and the degree of domestic policy hedging are uncertain, and the short - term bond market may fluctuate, the impact of tariff measures on the fundamentals has not been fully priced in the market, which is not necessarily a negative for long - term bonds. As export pressure gradually emerges, domestic policies are likely to be adjusted, and monetary easing is likely to be relatively early. Before the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, long - term interest rates may not face significant risks and may hit new lows. At present, the duration strategy is dominant, and 3 - 5 - year medium - to - high - grade credit bonds have allocation value [29]

Group 1 - The bond market showed a rebound on April 9, with government bond futures generally rising slightly and interbank bond yields falling by 1-2 basis points [1][2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1189 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1110 billion yuan for the day [5] - Analysts expect a potential acceleration in local government bond issuance in the second quarter, but the impact is likely to be limited [1][6] Group 2 - The yield on 10-year government bonds fell by 1.5 basis points to 1.648%, while the yield on 30-year government bonds decreased by 1 basis point to 1.845% [2] - The China Securities Convertible Bond Index closed up 0.84%, with significant gains in several convertible bonds, including a 20% increase in the Emergency Convertible Bond [2] - The market is experiencing a shift in risk appetite due to the implementation of U.S. tariffs, favoring bond performance [1][3] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance's recent bond auctions saw yields lower than market expectations, indicating strong demand with bid-to-cover ratios above 2.5 for most maturities [4] - Analysts from Shenwan Hongyuan suggest that the supply rhythm of local bonds is a key factor affecting the local bond-national bond yield spread, with potential trading opportunities in local bonds [6] - CITIC Securities recommends a proactive approach to credit bonds under neutral to optimistic expectations, advocating for a comprehensive allocation strategy [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On April 2, Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs", setting a 10% minimum benchmark tariff for trading partners, with higher - tariff economies including China (34%), EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), India (26%), Japan (24%), etc., and also re - emphasized 25% auto tariffs and announced a 25% tariff on all imported beer, which increased capital market volatility [2] - On April 3, in the domestic bond market, the yields of various maturities declined, with the 10Y Treasury bonds 240011 and 250004 down about 5bp, and the decline of ultra - long bonds > long bonds > medium - short bonds [3] - After the "reciprocal tariffs" shock, the bond market is close to the pricing of unchanged short - term interest rate center + historical minimum term spread. The subsequent market decline needs to focus on the influx of risk - averse funds into the bond market and the opening of the broad - money window. The 10 - year Treasury bond is likely to fluctuate in the range of 1.70% - 1.80%. Active bonds are more cost - effective during the bond - replacement period, and some secondary - active bonds may over - adjust due to temporary tightening of funds [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Impact of Tariff Announcement - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" announcement was a major surprise to the market, targeting multiple economies and increasing capital market volatility [2] 2. Bond Market Performance on April 3 - The domestic bond market priced in the tariff impact in the morning, with the yields of 10Y Treasury bonds 240011 and 250004 dropping by about 5bp, and the decline pattern of different - maturity bonds was ultra - long bonds > long bonds > medium - short bonds [3] 3. Three Perspectives on the Subsequent Bond Market 3.1. Tariff's Impact on Fundamental Expectations and Term Spread - Tariffs increase pessimistic expectations about the economic fundamentals. When there are such expectations, term spreads like 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y usually compress. Given the current short - term interest rate above 1.5% (1.54% on April 2) and the 10Y - 1Y term spread compressed to 25bp, the short - term interest rate is approaching the theoretical lower limit of 1.74% (calculated based on the historical minimum term spread of 20bp) [3] 3.2. Conditions for Further Decline in Short - term Interest Rates - A further decline in short - term interest rates depends on broad - money policies, but the window may not open immediately. The pressure to stabilize the economy has increased, and the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has risen again. However, stabilizing the exchange rate restricts broad - money policies in the short term, the space for broad - money policies is limited compared to 2018, and the probability of broad - money policies in May - June to cooperate with government bond issuance is higher, while the net financing pressure in April is relatively small [4] 3.3. Focus on Institutional Behavior when the 10 - year Treasury Bond Fluctuates between 1.70% - 1.80% - In the current bond - replacement market, 240011 may face upward pressure because the short - selling force of 240011 is still strong (as shown by the increase in bond lending volume after the quarter), and 250004 is about to replace 240011 as the active bond, so its interest rate may rise due to liquidity pricing [5][6] - The secondary - active bonds of 30Y Treasury bonds may also face upward pressure. Although the funds have loosened, the negative Carry phenomenon still exists. During the Q2 when there is a 30Y Treasury bond issuance plan, the secondary - active bonds may over - adjust after the seasonal tightening of funds [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - In February, M2 growth remained stable, M1 growth declined, social financing growth rebounded, and credit growth decreased. The demand for financing remains robust despite low new home sales, with replacement bonds and corporate loans substituting for each other [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the government bond net financing is strong, indicating that the demand for real economy financing is not weak. In January and February, a total of 854.2 billion yuan of replacement bonds were issued, contributing significantly to the increase in government bonds [3][16]. - The social financing pulse is showing signs of bottoming out and recovering, with M1 and corporate profits expected to trend upward. The report highlights the importance of monitoring M1, corporate profits, and price levels as key variables for economic recovery [3][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Events - The People's Bank of China released financial statistics for February 2025 on March 14, 2025 [8]. 2. Loans: Replacement Bonds and Corporate Loans Substituting Each Other - In January and February, the new RMB loans amounted to 6.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 230 billion yuan. The structure of loans shows a decrease in short-term loans for residents and a steady demand for medium to long-term loans [10][11]. 3. Social Financing: Strong Government Bond Net Financing, Real Economy Financing Demand Not Weak - The new social financing in January and February reached 9.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.32 trillion yuan. The report indicates that the strong net financing of government bonds is a major contributor to this increase [16][17]. 4. Deposits: M1 Growth Short-term Focus on Debt Reduction, Medium-term Focus on Prices - In January and February, new RMB deposits increased by 8.74 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in resident deposits. The report suggests that M1 growth will depend on debt reduction measures and the activity level of the real economy [22][23]. 5. Bond Market: Loose Credit May Drive Interest Rates Up, Favorable for Bond Allocation - The report discusses the government's intention to implement loose monetary policy as a means to achieve loose credit, which may lead to increased bond market supply and rising interest rates, benefiting bond allocation [27][29].

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 3 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 积蓄力量，等待下行 [Table_Summary] 3 月 10-14 日，资金趋稳的利好信号开始反映在短端定价，但债市情 绪脆弱依然驱动长端利率上行，且利率波幅明显放大。14 日尾盘 2 月金融 数据发布，信贷结构反映需求正在弱化，但业内人士文章随之出炉，关于 降准降息的表述，都透露出当下落地的概率不大，债市对于"宽货币"的预 期阶段性退坡。 ► 降准降息，虽迟但大概率会到 如何看待短期降准降息落空，对债市的影响？我们倾向于，从希望到 失望，短期悲观情绪已经在 14 日尾盘释放。接下来是重新集聚力量的过 程，等待越来越多的高频数据揭示经济基本面的趋势。从当前信贷和经济 的高频数据来看，大行仍在票据市场收票，出口运价下跌，建筑复工偏 慢，工业品价格疲软，种种信号多指向基本面仍在筑底过程，需要呵护。 如果 3 月下旬信贷和经济高频数据依然偏弱，则降准降息预期可能卷 土重来。不过当下我们更应该关注，在央行态度偏呵护的背景下，3 月税 期及跨季，资金面是否保持平稳。降准的本质是补充银行的负债端，增强 资 ...

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Trends - In February, the social financing scale increased by 2.23 trillion RMB, which is 737.4 billion RMB more year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.2%[4] - New RMB loans added in February were 650.5 billion RMB, a decrease of 326.7 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - Corporate loans increased by 1.04 trillion RMB in February, a year-on-year decrease of 540 billion RMB[3] Group 2: Household and Corporate Loan Performance - Household loans showed a net decrease of 389.1 billion RMB, which is a reduction of 201.6 billion RMB compared to the previous year[3] - The performance of short-term household loans was better than that of medium and long-term loans, with short-term loans decreasing by 2.74 billion RMB[3] - Corporate medium and long-term loans saw a decrease of 750 billion RMB year-on-year, attributed to accelerated debt replacement and slow recovery post-Spring Festival[3] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Economic Outlook - M2 growth rate remained stable at 7% in February, while M1 growth rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 0.1%[5] - The increase in non-bank deposits was 2.8 trillion RMB, which is 1.7 trillion RMB more year-on-year[5] - The necessity to boost demand is highlighted, with potential for structural interest rate cuts and increased personal consumption loan issuance[5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the convertible bond market, indicating that it has entered a bull market phase, driven by technical analysis rather than fundamental factors [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - The convertible bond market has shown a trend of upward movement, with indices rising over 20% since September 2024, reflecting positive investor sentiment and increased risk appetite [3][6]. - High-priced convertible bonds are currently outperforming, similar to characteristics observed in previous bull markets, indicating a shift in investor behavior from defensive to more aggressive strategies [3][4]. - The bond market is undergoing significant adjustments, with 10-year government bond yields approaching 1.80% and 30-year yields nearing 1.99%, primarily due to concerns over the central bank's monetary policy [3][7]. - Credit bond market yields are rising, particularly in lower-rated, longer-duration categories, suggesting a preference for high-rated, short-duration credit bonds to mitigate liquidity risks [3][8]. - In the city investment bond sector, there are opportunities in bonds with a rating of 2A2 yielding approximately 2.35%, and 1-2 year bonds rated AA yielding between 2.25%-2.3% [3][9]. - The industry is advised to focus on high-growth sectors such as advanced manufacturing, prioritizing high-rated, medium to short-duration leading companies [3][9]. Additional Important Insights - The current market sentiment indicates that investors are in a balanced state, with some being cautious and others willing to take risks, which is typical in the later stages of a market recovery [4]. - The convertible bond market is characterized by its emotional volatility, which is distinct from traditional linear asset classes, suggesting that increasing positions in this asset class is a strategic move in the current environment [5][6]. - The bond market's adjustment is expected to continue, with a cautious approach recommended until clearer signals of recovery emerge [7][8]. - The focus on city investment bonds and industrial bonds is driven by recent policy announcements aimed at improving cash flow and structural conditions in the market [9].