Group 1 - The expectation of a gradual implementation of US fiscal policies is leading to a relatively weak performance of gold [1] - The recent US non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations has caused the market to abandon bets on a July rate cut, shifting focus to upcoming US tariff policies [1][2] - The geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies are providing strong support for precious metal prices, with gold expected to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term [2] Group 2 - Optimism surrounding trade negotiations is enhancing risk appetite, which is putting pressure on gold prices [2] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical events and uncertainties related to the trade war [2]

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 06 日 [Table_Title] "资产荒"卷土重来 [Table_Summary] ► 7 月债市，直接进入票息行情 7 月债市行情紧跟保险、理财和银行的增量资金，或由其推动债市走 出结构性行情。同时三类机构的资金流入节奏或有错期，银行负债或随跨 季结束而迅速改善；理财规模扩容可能集中在上半月，债券购买力或在月 中显现；保险预定利率研究值公布时点大概率在 21 日前后，"降成本"预 期或在中下旬发酵。因此，理论上债市慢牛行情的发展或有层次，短利率 先行，短信用跟进，中长端补涨。 但在实际情形中，虽然月初资金面极为宽松，银行边际负债成本（如 存单等）也在快速下行，然而短久期利率债行情暂未启动。在这一背景 下，市场直接进入票息行情，以基金为代表交易盘开始在信用债、二永债 板块积极挖掘剩余利差，同时在 7-10 年政金债、10 年以上国债等板块寻 找利差机会。 ► "资产荒"，卷土重来 一览当前的市场定价情况，国债 10 年-1 年期限利差约为 30bp，虽然 较此前相对极端的 20bp 有所扩张，但历史分位数并不算高，若将观察周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the interest rate remained in a box - shaped oscillation pattern with a slight upward trend. The key factor affecting the bond market is still the tightness of the capital market. Determining the timing of the next interest rate cut or the fermentation of the interest rate cut expectation is crucial for the downward breakthrough of bond yields. Before the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the probability of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts is low. The 10 - year treasury bond yield will oscillate within the range of 1.6% - 1.7%, and investors can actively deploy when it is near the upper limit of the range [2][18]. - This week, the 2 - year US Treasury yield dropped by about 15bp, and the 10 - year yield dropped by about 7 - 8bp. The US Treasury still has strong allocation attractiveness. It is recommended to appropriately shorten the portfolio duration. The US real - estate market shows a continuous weakening trend under the high - interest - rate environment. The consumer confidence index has rebounded, and the number of initial jobless claims has decreased, while the number of continued jobless claims has reached a new high since November 2021. The Fed will wait and see economic data before deciding on policy adjustments [3][20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - week Views - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yield in China**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond rose from 1.638% to 1.646%, an increase of 0.8bp. The yield was affected by multiple factors such as international events, capital market operations, and macro - economic data announcements during the week [1][13]. - **Analysis of the Second - quarter Meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee**: Compared with the first - quarter meeting, the assessment of the economic situation is more positive, and the attitude towards policy implementation is less urgent. The statement has changed from "choosing the opportunity to cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate" to "flexibly grasping the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation." Before the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the probability of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts is low [2][18]. - **US Treasury Yield and Related Data**: This week, the 2 - year US Treasury yield dropped by about 15bp, and the 10 - year yield dropped by about 7 - 8bp. The US real - estate market is weak, the consumer confidence index has rebounded, and the Fed will wait and see economic data before policy adjustment [3][20]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Aggregation - **Liquidity Tracking**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the central bank's open - market net investment was 10,672 billion yuan. The money - market interest rate and the issuance volume of interest - rate bonds have changed. The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds have also shown different trends [32]. - **Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking**: The total commercial - housing transaction area has increased. Steel prices have decreased, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices have generally increased. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal, the inter - bank certificate of deposit interest rate, the Yu'E Bao yield, the vegetable price index, the RJ/CRB commodity price index, and the crude - oil price have all shown corresponding changes [55][57]. 3.3 One - week Review of Local Bonds - **Primary - market Issuance Overview**: From June 23 to June 29, 2025, 161 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with an issuance amount of 641.64 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 81.288 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 560.352 billion yuan. The issuance was mainly concentrated in 17 provinces and cities, with Shanghai, Hebei, and Beijing ranking in the top three in terms of issuance volume [69]. - **Secondary - market Overview**: This week, the stock of local bonds was 51.74 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 514.13 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.99%. The top three provinces with active trading were Shandong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan. The top three active trading maturities were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y. The maturity yields of local bonds generally increased [88]. - **Local - bond Issuance Plan for this Month**: No specific content provided. 3.4 One - week Review of the Credit - bond Market - **Primary - market Issuance Overview**: This week, 345 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 307.984 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 309.967 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 19.83 billion yuan. Among them, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was - 137.72 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 117.89 billion yuan [95]. - **Issuance Interest Rate**: The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds have changed to different extents this week [109]. - **Secondary - market Transaction Overview**: This week, the total credit - bond trading volume was 697.213 billion yuan. The trading volume of each type of bond varied by rating [110]. - **Maturity Yield**: The maturity yields of national development bank bonds, short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds have changed to different extents this week [112][114][115][117]. - **Credit Spread**: This week, the credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes generally narrowed, those of enterprise bonds generally narrowed, and those of urban investment bonds generally widened [118][121][126]. - **Grade Spread**: This week, the grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [131][134][138]. - **Trading Activity**: This week, the top five most actively traded bonds in each type are listed. The industrial industry had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, reaching 412.071 billion yuan [143].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and monetary policy in China, particularly regarding the central bank's actions and their implications for interest rates and economic support. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy and Interest Rates** - The central bank's reverse repo operations are stabilizing market expectations, with a potential for further rate cuts in the second half of the year to support economic growth [1][3][8] - A 10 basis point rate cut has already occurred in Q2, with expectations for additional cuts in Q3 [1][3][8] 2. **Market Expectations and Bond Purchases** - Large purchases of short-term bonds by major banks may indicate the central bank's intention to restart bond-buying operations, which could lead to lower interest rates [1][3][9] - The short-term government bond yield is expected to trend towards 1.1%, while the 10-year bond yield may break below 1.6% and approach 1.5% [1][6][9] 3. **Factors Influencing Interest Rate Movements** - A significant amount of maturing certificates of deposit and fluctuations in the funding environment may temporarily restrict interest rate declines [1][7] - Positive outcomes from US-China negotiations could slightly increase market risk appetite, potentially affecting rates by 2-3 basis points [1][4][5][7] 4. **Investment Strategies** - A bullish approach is recommended for the next two to three months, focusing on 3 to 5-year bullet bonds if the central bank resumes bond purchases [1][9][11] - In the absence of such expectations, a strategy favoring ticket interest or yield spread compression is advised [1][9][11] 5. **Long-term Credit Bonds** - Long-term credit bonds are viewed as having high certainty in the current market environment, with recommendations to focus on 8-year medium-term notes and 6 to 10-year subordinated capital bonds [1][15] 6. **Local vs. National Bonds** - The spread between local and national bonds is expected to remain stable, with local bond issuance anticipated to increase in Q3 [1][16][17] 7. **Liquidity and Trading Strategies** - Active bonds are reasonably priced and maintain good liquidity, making them suitable for trading [1][21] - Investors are advised to monitor changes in liquidity premiums and bond pricing dynamics [1][21] 8. **Floating vs. Fixed Rate Bonds** - Floating rate bonds are currently reasonably priced, but may not outperform fixed-rate bonds if short-term rates decline [1][24] 9. **Government Bond Futures** - Current pricing of government bond futures is considered high, but they still hold hedging value. Strategies may include shorting corresponding futures to capture yield [1][25] Other Important Considerations - The overall economic outlook remains dependent on continued monetary support, with expectations for the central bank to take action to stabilize market conditions amid significant government bond supply pressures [1][8] - The anticipated bond market dynamics suggest a cautious yet opportunistic approach to investment, with a focus on liquidity and yield optimization [1][9][15]

新华财经上海6月16日电（记者杨溢仁）在基本面、资金面利好支撑的背景下，债市投资者从"看多"转 向"做多"。分析人士指出，当前各机构择券主要锚定"资金面"，考虑到货币宽松有望进一步延续，则眼 下"止盈未至"，仍可积极布局。 债市依旧"顺风" 根据券商调研，当前的债市情绪已接近年内最乐观值。 中央国债登记结算有限责任公司提供的数据显示，截至6月16日收盘，银行间10年期国债收益率已从4月 1日的1.81%回落至1.64%附近。 "就机构行为来看，临近半年末，公募基金'冲'收益诉求增强，中长期债基久期回升。聚焦交易层面， 前述情况更为突出，基金主力买入10年、30年期利率债券，同时加大了中期票据的买入力度，说明基金 在增配中短期信用债拿票息的同时，也在拉长久期博取资本利得。"一位机构交易员告诉记者，"不仅如 此，现阶段债市整体的杠杆率也在回升，并已超过去年水平。" 记者注意到，一季度债市资金面整体均衡偏紧，DR007运行在政策利率上方，对应债市杠杆率持续处于 低位，远低于季节性水平。而反观当前，在央行提前公布买断式逆回购操作（精准对冲流动性压力）， 且大型商业银行密集购买短债的背景下，6月虽面临跨季但资金面并不紧 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - Treasury bond futures maintained a narrow - range oscillation last week with a slight upward movement throughout the week. The overall implementation of broad credit still needs time, while the trend of broad money remains unchanged. Although treasury bond futures have been oscillating higher recently, the overall trend in the future is still expected to be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to arbitrage strategies, as well as allocation and hedging needs [2]. 2. Section Summaries 2.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Treasury bond futures contracts oscillated upward this week. The TL contract had a relatively large increase due to fluctuations in the overall market's risk appetite, and the yield curve flattened again. In terms of basis characteristics, the basis trend was stable, and the IRR of the main contract was basically between 1.8 - 1.9, still higher than the funding rate but with reduced cost - effectiveness. Regarding the inter - delivery spread, the 09 - 12 combination rebounded slightly, reflecting a decline in market sentiment. Currently, market liquidity is limited and not suitable for operation. In terms of the curve structure, opportunities for the curve to steepen should be noted [3][5]. 2.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - No specific summarized content provided in the report. 2.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type: private funds increased by 2.15%; foreign capital increased by 2.86%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.67%. In terms of weekly changes: private funds increased by 1.4%; foreign capital decreased by 3.33%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 3.86% [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" on dips. For bonds, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to go long on dips as interest rates are expected to decline in the long run. For precious metals, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips and stay on the sidelines for gold. Different metals and commodities have their own supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these [2][3][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44%, the ChiNext Index down 1.17%, etc. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 12.9 billion yuan to 1.4154 trillion yuan. There were positive policy news such as allowing certain Hong Kong - listed enterprises to list in Shenzhen and the MSCI China Index rising. The financing amount increased by 7.447 billion yuan, and the liquidity was relatively loose. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures on dips and also consider going long on IC or IM futures [2]. - The basis ratios of stock index futures are provided. The trading logic is based on policy support, and the strategy is to buy IF long contracts on dips, with no arbitrage recommendation [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all had small increases. There were news about the "one - old - one - young" service and Sino - US economic and trade consultations. The central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. The short - term bond market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to go long on dips as interest rates are expected to decline in the long run [4][5][6]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.23% to 774.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.43% to 8889 yuan/kg. COMEX gold and silver both declined. If the US fiscal bill is passed, the debt ceiling problem will be solved, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. The expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit will ease before July 4, which is a marginal negative factor for gold prices. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips and stay on the sidelines for gold. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are provided [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Affected by Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and a stable US dollar index, copper prices oscillated downward. LME copper inventories decreased, and the cancellation warrant ratio increased. The domestic spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased. The short - term copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [9][10]. Aluminum - With the listing of cast aluminum alloy and the recovery of domestic black commodities, aluminum prices oscillated upward. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods increased. Although the domestic commodity atmosphere has improved, it is still unstable. The decline in inventory will support aluminum prices, but the increase in US import tariffs on aluminum products will limit the upside of aluminum prices. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are provided [11]. Zinc - Zinc ore is in an oversupply situation, and zinc smelter profits have increased again. Zinc ingots are expected to have a large increase in production, while terminal consumption is weak. After three consecutive sets of inventory accumulation data, zinc prices fell significantly. It is necessary to observe the actions of smelting enterprises at the 21,500 yuan/ton level. If there is no production control, zinc prices may continue to decline [12]. Lead - The price of lead rose slightly. The downstream battery enterprises are reducing prices for promotion, and terminal procurement is weak. The operating rate of primary lead smelting has increased, and the inventory of recycled lead products is high. Lead prices are expected to remain weak [13]. Nickel - The price of nickel oscillated. The supply of nickel ore is tight due to weather conditions, and the price of nickel iron has stabilized and rebounded. The supply of intermediate products is still tight, and the price of nickel sulfate is expected to strengthen. The short - term fundamentals of nickel have improved slightly, but it is still bearish in the long term. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to short. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are provided [14]. Tin - The price of tin decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore may decrease, and the processing fee is at a historical low. The operating rate of smelting enterprises is low. The downstream demand has not increased significantly, and the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has decreased. The short - term tin price is expected to oscillate, and the reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin are provided [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot index of lithium carbonate was flat, and the futures price increased slightly. The contract position decreased, and the main contract will switch. There is a lack of marginal changes in supply and demand, and it is expected to oscillate. The reference operating range for the futures contract is provided [16]. Alumina - The price of alumina decreased slightly. The spot price remained unchanged, and the import window opened. The inventory of futures decreased. Although there are disturbances in the ore end, the overcapacity pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to go short on rallies. The reference operating range for the main contract is provided, and risks such as policy changes in Guinea need to be noted [17][18]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel decreased. The spot price also decreased, and the inventory increased. The market competition has intensified after the cancellation of the price limit policy by steel mills. The downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the market transaction is light. The future market trend depends on whether the downstream demand can drive the digestion of inventory [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The apparent demand for rebar decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. The supply of hot - rolled coil increased, and the demand remained weak with a slight increase in inventory. The export volume decreased this week, and the market has entered the traditional off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to tariff policies, terminal demand, and cost support [21][22]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore decreased slightly. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory of ports and steel mills changed slightly. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to changes in supply and demand and macro - events [23]. Glass and Soda Ash - The spot price of glass decreased, and the production enterprises' inventory increased. The price of soda ash was relatively stable, and the supply decreased due to maintenance, but the demand also decreased. The mid - term supply of soda ash is still loose, and both glass and soda ash are expected to have a weak - oscillating trend [24]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The price of manganese silicon decreased slightly, and the price of ferrosilicon was flat. The prices of both are in a downward trend, mainly due to overcapacity, weak demand, and a decrease in cost expectations. It is not recommended to bottom - fish blindly. It is necessary to pay attention to the support and pressure levels [25][26]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon decreased. The supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [29][30][31]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - NR and RU oscillated and rebounded. The bulls are optimistic about rubber production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The operating rates of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory consumption was slow. It is recommended to take a short - term long or neutral approach and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [34][35][38]. Crude Oil - The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased, while the price of INE crude oil increased. The gasoline inventory in Fujeirah port increased, and the diesel inventory decreased. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation and the shale oil support effect, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [39]. Methanol - The futures price of methanol decreased, and the spot price increased. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand has improved slightly. The price may decline further, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the PP - 3MA spread [40]. Urea - The futures price of urea decreased, and the spot price was flat. The supply is high, and the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises has decreased, but there is still top - dressing demand. The price is expected to have no obvious trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [41][42]. PVC - The price of PVC decreased. The cost is stable, the production is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The export is expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, but a rebound may occur if the export does not weaken as expected [43]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol increased. The supply load was stable, and the downstream load decreased slightly. The inventory increased slightly. The industry is in the de - stocking stage, but the inventory de - stocking may slow down. There is a risk of valuation adjustment [44]. PTA - The price of PTA increased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is stable. The inventory is expected to continue to decrease, and the processing fee is supported. PTA will oscillate at the current valuation level [45]. Para - xylene - The price of para - xylene increased. The supply load increased, and the demand from PTA also increased. The inventory is expected to decrease slowly in June and enter the de - stocking cycle again in the third quarter. The short - term valuation is at a medium - high level, and it is expected to oscillate [46]. Polyethylene (PE) - The spot price of PE increased. The supply pressure will ease in June, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [47]. Polypropylene (PP) - The spot price of PP was stable. The supply is expected to increase significantly in June, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in June [48]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The price of live pigs increased in most areas. The demand is general, and the support for pig prices is limited. The short - term pig price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to short on rallies for the far - month contract [50]. Eggs - The price of eggs was mostly stable with a slight decrease in some areas. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The theoretical supply is still increasing, and the consumption is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contract and pay attention to the support of the far - month contract when the position is large [51]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of US soybeans increased slightly, and the domestic soybean meal price decreased slightly. The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. The new - season US soybeans may oscillate at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost range and the supply - demand situation for the 09 contract [52][53]. Oils and Fats - The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in the first 10 days of June. The export of Brazilian soybeans is expected to increase. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased in May, but the inventory in other countries is low. The price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate due to the balance of positive and negative factors [54][55][56]. Sugar - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures decreased. The spot price was stable. The export of Brazilian sugar decreased slightly in the first week of June, and the sugar production in India is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. The international supply situation has improved, and the domestic supply may increase. The sugar price is likely to decline [57][58]. Cotton - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures increased slightly. The spot price increased. The planting and budding rates of US cotton are slightly lower than last year. The downstream operating rate has decreased slightly, and the supply and demand situation has improved marginally. The short - term cotton price is expected to oscillate [59][60][61].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy, or IC or IM futures related to "new productive forces" on dips. The short - term bond market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to enter on dips. The silver price will continue to be strong. Most metal prices will show different trends of shock, and some agricultural product prices will also fluctuate. [4][6][7] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.07%, etc. The total turnover of the two markets was 1286.4 billion yuan, an increase of 134.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CPI in May decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4%. [2] - The financing amount decreased by 3.116 billion yuan. The overnight Shibor rate rose 3.30bp to 1.411%. The 3 - year enterprise bond AA - level interest rate decreased 1.46bp to 2.9709%. The 10 - year treasury bond rate decreased 0.89bp to 1.6543%. The US 10 - year interest rate rose 11bp to 4.51%. [3] - It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended. [4] Treasury Bond - On Monday, the TL main contract rose 0.35%, the T main contract rose 0.09%, etc. In May, the CPI decreased slightly, and the core CPI increased year - on - year. China's total import and export value in the first five months of 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year. [5] - The central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 173.8 billion yuan. The short - term bond market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to enter on dips. [6] Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.18%, Shanghai silver rose 2.07%. COMEX gold fell 0.24%, COMEX silver rose 0.45%. The US economic data is weakening, and the Fed's further interest rate cut is necessary, which will drive the silver price to be strong. [7] - It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, and the silver price will be stronger. The reference operating range of Shanghai gold is 756 - 809 yuan/gram, and that of Shanghai silver is 8545 - 9500 yuan/kilogram. [8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - LME copper rose 1.01%, Shanghai copper closed at 79330 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 10000 tons, and the domestic social inventory was basically flat. China's copper imports in May decreased by 16.9% year - on - year. The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level. [10] Aluminum - LME aluminum rose 1.28%, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20060 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the aluminum price is expected to rise limitedly. [11] Zinc - Shanghai zinc index fell 2.22%. The zinc ore is in surplus, and the zinc price may decline further if there is no production control. [12] Lead - Shanghai lead index fell 0.07%. The downstream consumption of lead is weakening, and the lead price is expected to be weak. [13] Nickel - Shanghai nickel fell 0.27%, LME nickel fell 0.81%. The nickel ore supply is tight, and the nickel price is expected to be short - term bullish but long - term bearish. [14] Tin - Shanghai tin rose 0.05%. The supply of tin ore may decrease, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to oscillate. [15] Carbonate Lithium - The spot index of carbonate lithium was flat, and the futures price rose 0.43%. The lithium salt production is high, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. [16] Alumina - The alumina index fell 0.34%. The alumina production capacity is in surplus, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. [17] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fell 0.32%. The industry is facing high inventory and weak demand, and the price will be under pressure. [18] Black Building Materials Steel - The rebar price rose 0.201%, and the hot - rolled coil price rose 0.097%. The market is in the off - season, and the demand is weakening. [20][21] Iron Ore - The iron ore price fell 0.64%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The ore price is expected to oscillate. [22] Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price fell, and the soda ash price is expected to be weak. The supply and demand of both are in a state of change. [23][24] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon rose 0.25%, ferrosilicon rose 1.37%. Both are in a downward trend, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [25] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price rose 2.54%. The industry has over - capacity, and the price may fall further. [29] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil all rose. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [33] Methanol - The methanol price rose. The supply is high, and the price may fall further. It is recommended to go short on rallies. [34] Urea - The urea price fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [35] PVC - The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. [36][37] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply and demand are changing, and there is a risk of valuation adjustment. [38] PTA - The PTA price fell. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the price will continue to decline in inventory. [39] p - Xylene - The p - xylene price fell. The supply and demand will change, and the price will oscillate at the current valuation. [40][41] Polyethylene - The polyethylene price rose. The supply pressure will ease, and the price will oscillate. [42] Polypropylene - The polypropylene price rose. The supply will increase, and the price is expected to be bearish in June. [43] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The pig price rose slightly. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term and wait for short - selling opportunities in the far term. [45] Eggs - The egg price was mostly stable. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be short - term bearish. [46] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The US soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal supply is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate. [47][48] Oils and Fats - The palm oil production and export are increasing. The oil price is expected to oscillate. [49][50][51] Sugar - The sugar price fell slightly. The international supply is increasing, and the domestic sugar price may weaken. [52][53] Cotton - The cotton price rose. The supply is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. [54]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to remain in a high central oscillation phase during Q2, with short-term adjustments anticipated due to increased uncertainty in the U.S. economy and limited expansion space for new consumption [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Q2 is characterized as a high central oscillation market, with short-term adjustments expected [2]. - The upper limit of the oscillation range is supported by a combination of wide monetary policy and external demand improvements, but concerns about economic downturns remain [2][3]. - The lower limit is influenced by the timely implementation of monetary policies and the role of stabilization funds in managing market sentiment [2][3]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Technology and consumer sectors are currently not positioned to lead market breakthroughs, with technology still in a mid-term adjustment phase [2][4]. - New consumption trends are facing limitations in expanding outward due to reduced internal demand stimulus [2][4]. - The pharmaceutical sector (CXO and innovative drugs) and precious metals are expected to continue their positive trends in the short term [4]. Group 3: Fund Management and Market Dynamics - The recent trend of public funds aligning with performance benchmarks has concluded, with potential for a new round of market dynamics in June [5]. - Fund managers are encouraged to reassess their benchmark choices, as the alignment with performance benchmarks may not be suitable for all [3][4]. - The potential inflow of funds into sectors such as non-banking, banking, construction, public utilities, and coal is noted, although actual inflows remain low relative to market capitalization [3]. Group 4: Profitability and Economic Outlook - A general expectation is that A-shares will struggle to see a significant uptick in profitability until 2025 [2]. - The mid-term outlook for A-shares relies heavily on breakthroughs in the technology sector, particularly in AI, embodied intelligence, and defense industries [4]. - The combination of new merger regulations and venture capital financing is anticipated to contribute positively to high-growth segments of the new economy [4]. Group 5: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment indicators show varying levels of profitability across sectors, with banking at 97% and consumer sectors like beauty care and pharmaceuticals showing moderate expansion [8]. - Sectors such as public utilities and basic chemicals are experiencing contraction, indicating a need for focused investment strategies [8]. - The overall A-share market sentiment is showing signs of contraction, with only 42% of stocks indicating profitability expansion [8].

Market Overview - The bond market showed consolidation on May 22, with government bond futures mostly stable and interbank bond yields fluctuating within a narrow range of 0.5 basis points [1][2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 90 billion yuan in the open market, with short-term funding rates continuing to decline [1][5] Yield Movements - The 30-year government bond futures fell by 0.04% to 119.520, while the 10-year futures rose by 0.01% to 108.815 [2] - The yield on the 10-year China Development Bank bond increased by 0.25 basis points to 1.74%, while the yield on the 30-year government bond decreased by 0.5 basis points to 1.9115% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 11.56 basis points to 4.605% [3] - Japanese bond yields also saw an uptick, with the 10-year yield rising by 6 basis points to 1.575% [3] - Eurozone bond yields increased, with the 10-year French bond yield rising by 4.9 basis points to 3.308% [3] Primary Market Activity - The Export-Import Bank of China issued a 1-year fixed-rate bond with a winning rate of 1.2094%, achieving a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.23 [4] - The China Development Bank's 3-year and 7-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.5274% and 1.6676%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.21 and 5.03 [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total amount of 154.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 90 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate falling by 4.4 basis points to 1.465% [5] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that while April real estate data showed marginal weakness, the impact of interest rate cuts on bank interest margins is expected to be limited [6] - Shenwan Hongyuan projected that increased government bond supply in Q2 and Q3 will create opportunities for banks to allocate bonds, particularly in local and national bonds [7] - China International Capital Corporation highlighted that the flattening of the deposit curve could provide more room for long-term interest rate declines, potentially leading to a bull steepening of the yield curve [7]