兔贵毒郎：国投聆货有限公司是经中国正监会忧选拉立的期经经营机构，已具备解销货资咨询业务资格，本报告(RH国报销货间隙公司（以下辖称"本公司"）的机构或个人客户（以下简称" 客户" ）使用，本公司不会居按收人收到本报告而吸 其为客户，如接收人并招聘股购彩客户，请及时退四并删除，本报告是基于本公司认为可察的已公开信息，但本公司不级正将等目息的距离性或完整性，本报告所载的资料、意见及准则只把坐熔客户le参考之目。"相手所数的政策、意见及地图、意见及地图、 仅皮换本公母于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所能的期货或期权的价值、价值可能会反边。在不同时期，本公司可发出与本报 体优惠或新基地像现好不钓श家时任何人的投资建议。在任何情况下，本公司不对任例人国使用本提供中的任何内容所得到的任何领发失负任何或长。本报告可能的帮禁奖字网站的地址或超级链接，本公司不对系勾审的政策实位，合法性、完整性包括 确性负责。本报告授供这些地域超级短短的目的等把免了了客户使用方便。但随网站的车商不如本标值待往经同能分。客户南台行家色团达这些网站建展团团公。本报告的规范化公示所有。本公司对本编程保证一切权利。除利用审试题 示，否则本报告中的所有材料 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is increasing. Recently, a glass production line has resumed production, leading to a slight recovery in the rigid demand for soda ash. In the short - term, the futures market is affected by anti - involution sentiment and energy price increases, showing a strong trend. However, the continuously increasing high inventory pressure will still limit the price rebound space. Therefore, the short - term futures price is expected to oscillate and be slightly bullish. It is necessary to continue to monitor changes in downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash futures contract opened higher and strengthened during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands showed an opening horn, indicating a short - term oscillating and slightly bullish signal. The intraday pressure was near the previous secondary high, and the support was near the 20 - day moving average of the daily line. The trading volume increased by 331,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 7,400 lots. The intraday high was 1225, the low was 1193, and the closing price was 1224, up 31 yuan/ton or 2.6% compared to the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: It was weakly stable. The enterprise equipment was operating stably, with supply remaining at a high level. Some enterprises had maintenance plans in early February. Downstream purchasing sentiment was poor, and transactions were mainly based on low - price restocking [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 26 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the domestic soda ash output was 783,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons or 1.47%. Among them, the light soda ash output was 362,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,200 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.19%, down 2.23% month - on - month from 86.42% last week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.99%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.34%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 88.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,544,200 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons or 0.21% compared to Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 82,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,200 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 716,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,400 tons. It increased by 23,000 tons or 1.52% compared to last Thursday. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,845,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30,090 tons or 16.31% [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 760,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.94%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 97.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, the purchasing enthusiasm was poor, and the consumption was mainly based on inventory and low - price rigid demand purchasing [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 26.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 88.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, the price of thermal coal oscillated downward, and the cost decreased slightly [3] Main Logic Summary - The high capacity utilization rate and the release of new production capacity lead to an increase in overall output. The resumption of a glass production line has slightly increased the rigid demand for soda ash. The short - term futures market is affected by anti - involution sentiment and energy price increases, but the high inventory pressure limits the price rebound space. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate and be slightly bullish [4]

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/29 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/01/2 2 801 2238 2220 2355 - 2285 2385 265 322 -22 -5 - 2026/01/2 3 801 2263 2240 2345 - 2285 2385 267 322 -3 -20 - 2026/01/2 6 801 2300 2278 2360 - 2285 2405 272 322 -10 -45 - 2026/01/2 7 801 2267 2265 2355 - 2285 2388 267 322 9 -35 - 2026/01/2 8 801 2305 2290 2370 - 2275 2385 - - - -55 - 日度变化 0 38 25 15 - -10 -3 - - - -20 - 观点 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来 ...

近期，碳酸锂期货价格冲高回落。1月28日，碳酸锂期货主力合约收报166280元/吨，下跌3.9%。 业内人士认为，碳酸锂期货价格冲高回落，是此前各类利多消息逐步消化，市场回归基本面交易的表 现。 "此前，受停产消息、新能源汽车补贴延续、储能订单较好等因素影响，碳酸锂供需维持紧平衡状态， 对价格形成支撑。"创元期货分析师余烁解释称，在价格高企的情况下，市场多空分歧加大，更容易引 发价格波动。当前，锂矿价格下跌拖累了碳酸锂价格。根据Mysteel数据，1月28日，澳大利亚6%品位 的锂辉石均价报2355美元/吨，下跌100美元/吨。 展望后市，王美丹认为，在需求预期较强的情况下，碳酸锂价格下方存在有力的支撑，同时供应扰动也 限制了价格下行空间。不过，当前碳酸锂价格仍处于高位，需警惕回调风险，建议交易者理性参与、谨 慎持仓。 中信建投期货分析师张维鑫认为，当前碳酸锂市场的"强现实"已兑现，开始进入"弱预期"与"强预期"博 弈的阶段。目前碳酸锂的高价会刺激供应增长，且需求兑现程度需要持续观察，因此无法确定未来市场 的供需平衡情况。虽然下游积极备货，短期或对碳酸锂价格形成一定的支撑，但集中采购结束后，是否 仍有进一步的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current black building materials market is under real - world pressure, with the futures market running weakly. The slow resumption of steel mills, high iron ore shipments and inventories, and the weakening support of coal - coke restocking all contribute to the weak market. In the off - season, the steel inventory accumulation pressure is increasing, the cost support is loosening, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress prices. Although there is downward pressure on the short - term futures market, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Supply**: Iron ore arrivals have decreased, temporarily alleviating supply pressure, but inventory pressure is still increasing. There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side due to weather. Scrap steel supply has rebounded, and daily consumption is expected to decline [2] - **Demand**: Before the festival, restocking supports ore prices, but the actual supply - demand situation on both sides remains to be verified. Scrap steel consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost support is strong, and there are still expectations of steel mill复产 and winter restocking demand. The contradiction in the supply - demand structure is limited, and spot price increases are still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [2] - **Coking Coal**: The demand side is still in the process of winter restocking, and the supply side is expected to see a decline in coal mine production near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has priced in the winter restocking, the positive driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is under pressure, but the room for further decline is limited, and it is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental contradictions. The poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price, and it is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [3] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise [3] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] 3.5 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support has shifted downwards, and the futures market is running weakly. The spot market trading is generally weak, the steel mill profitability rate is improving, the iron water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the demand is seasonally weak. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and the short - term futures market still has downward pressure, but the downward space is limited [10] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and port trading has decreased month - on - month. Overseas mine shipments have increased, arrivals have weakened, and the supply side is affected by weather. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and steel mills are restocking with weak enthusiasm. Port and steel mill inventories are increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Scrap Steel**: This week's arrivals have decreased, and the spot price has risen slightly. Supply has declined slightly, demand is expected to decrease, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [12] - **Coke**: The futures market oscillates, and the cost support is strong. The steel mills are resistant to price increases, and the environmental protection disturbances are frequent. The demand side has a slight increase in iron water output, and the inventory is increasing. Spot price increases are still expected to be implemented, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12][14] - **Coking Coal**: The futures market is stable, and the supply is stable with high imports. The demand side is in the process of winter restocking, and the inventory is gradually reaching the target. After the futures market has priced in the restocking, the positive driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [15] - **Glass**: The spot price has risen month - on - month, and the futures market oscillates. The supply side has limited losses, and there is unlikely to be a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand side is weak, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, prices will be weakly oscillating; otherwise, prices will rise [16] - **Soda Ash**: The supply has increased month - on - month, and the spot contradictions are limited. The supply side has a slight increase in daily output, the demand side has a weakening trend, and the supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16] - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure is large, and the futures price is weakly sorted. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The trading atmosphere is poor, and the futures market is weakly oscillating. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is weak, and the trading activity suppresses the upward space. It is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [19]

Group 1 - Domestic natural rubber price is 15,950 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from the previous day; Thai 20 mixed rubber price is 15,150 CNY/ton, also down 50 CNY/ton [4][31] - Thai rubber water price reported at 57.7 THB/kg, up 0.1 THB/kg from the previous day; cup rubber price remains stable at 53.0 THB/kg [5][32] - As of January 25, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber is 584,500 tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons, or 0.07% [5][32] Group 2 - The global rubber market is expected to transition from dynamic pricing based on supply-demand balance to static pricing based on inventory levels as the Northern Hemisphere enters the low production season [5][32] - Despite a projected moderate growth in global tire and rubber product demand by 2026, growth will take time and may be limited by ongoing global trade barriers [5][32] - The rebound in rubber prices is not expected to exceed the levels seen in late July 2025 before the Lunar New Year in 2026 [5][32] Group 3 - PX industry load in China decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 89.0%, while Asia's load increased by 0.4 percentage points to 81.0%, indicating a stable supply [6][33] - The PX supply-demand balance is expected to shift to a loose state in the first quarter due to numerous maintenance plans in downstream PTA facilities [6][33] - The price of PX is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support range of 7,200-7,300 CNY [6][33] Group 4 - PTA industry load decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 76.6%, indicating a low level compared to historical data, with expected supply tightening due to maintenance plans [8][35] - The overall demand for PTA is weak, with a decline in new orders and a decrease in factory operating rates in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region [8][35] - PTA price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support range of 5,200-5,300 CNY [8][35] Group 5 - The EG industry load decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 73.7%, with domestic supply remaining ample despite potential import reductions from North America and the Middle East [10][37] - The price of EG is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with a support range of 3,900-3,950 CNY [10][37] Group 6 - The PR industry load decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 66.4%, with ongoing maintenance expected to support processing fees [12][42] - The demand for PR is weak due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery [12][42] - PR price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support range of 6,100-6,200 CNY [12][42] Group 7 - The glass industry shows weak supply and demand, with inventory increasing by 10,000 tons to 266,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [18][45] - The glass production rate remains stable, but downstream purchasing activity is generally weak [18][45] - Glass prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a reference range of 1,060-1,100 CNY [18][46]

Report Summary Price Performance - London Gold price is 4946.25 with a change of 114.20 [1] - London Silver price is 99.00 with a change of 5.62 [1] - London Platinum price is 2507.00 with a change of 5.00 [1] - London Palladium price is 1850.00 with a change of -19.00 [1] - WTI Crude price is 61.07 with a change of 1.71 [1] - LME Copper price is 12925.50 with a change of 81.00 [1] - US Dollar Index is 97.51 with a change of -0.77 [1] - Euro to US Dollar is 1.18 with a change of 0.01 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar is 1.36 with a change of 0.01 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 155.72 with a change of -2.70 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS is 1.92 with a change of -0.03 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory is 12952.26 with a change of -54.02 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory is 581.09 with a change of -7.96 [1] - Gold ETF持仓 is 1086.53 with a change of 6.87 [1] - Silver ETF持仓 is 16089.98 with a change of -14.10 [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange Silver inventory is not provided, and the change of its Gold deferred - fee payment direction is -1.00, and Silver deferred - fee payment direction change is 0.00 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the near - month of Singapore 380cst has strengthened significantly, with both cracking and calendar spreads strengthening. Short - term arbitrage logistics have tightened to a 6 - month low, and Singapore residue inventory has dropped significantly to a 13 - week low. The 0.5 low - sulfur cracking strengthened on Friday compared to the previous week, at a historically low level year - on - year, and the calendar spread is at a low level for the same period in history. In terms of inventory, EIA residue has slightly reduced inventory, ARA residue has increased inventory, and Fujairah has slightly increased inventory. Under the new situation in Venezuela, heavy - oil logistics are tilted towards the United States, Canadian heavy oil is seeking new buyers, the price of Merey crude oil has risen, and trading is light. Recently, the Iranian situation and arbitrage logistics have affected 380, the high - sulfur spot has tightened, the cracking has rebounded, and in the short term, high - sulfur has the strongest driving force among oil products, while the low - sulfur external market remains weak [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 19 to January 23, 2026, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 336.61 to 345.50, with a change of 0.57; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 385.89 to 388.38, with a change of 2.30; the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed from - 10.43 to - 9.41, with a change of - 0.15; the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased from 630.80 to 646.25, with a change of - 2.20; the Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed from - 244.91 to - 257.87, with a change of 4.50; the LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged at 25.00; the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased from 49.28 to 42.88, with a change of 1.73 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 19 to January 23, 2026, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 and 180cst M1 data for January 23 are missing. The Singapore VLSFO M1 data for January 23 is missing. The Singapore Gasoil M1 data for January 23 is missing. The Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed from - 6.30 to - 4.78, with a change of 0.77 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From January 19 to January 23, 2026, the FOB 380cst data for January 23 is missing, and the FOB VLSFO data for January 23 is missing. The 380 - basis data for January 23 is missing. The high - sulfur internal - external spread decreased from 12.6 to 11.8, with a change of - 0.7; the low - sulfur internal - external spread increased from 15.6 to 18.0, with a change of 2.0 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From January 19 to January 23, 2026, FU 01 increased from 2478 to 2517, with a change of 2; FU 05 increased from 2526 to 2623, with a change of 41; FU 09 increased from 2500 to 2562, with a change of 17; FU 01 - 05 changed from - 48 to - 106, with a change of - 39; FU 05 - 09 changed from 26 to 61, with a change of 24; FU 09 - 01 changed from 22 to 45, with a change of 15 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From January 19 to January 23, 2026, LU 01 decreased from 3136 to 3183, with a change of - 3; LU 05 decreased from 3052 to 3106, with a change of - 20; LU 09 decreased from 3073 to 3121, with a change of - 16; LU 01 - 05 changed from 84 to 77, with a change of 17; LU 05 - 09 changed from - 21 to - 15, with a change of - 4; LU 09 - 01 changed from - 63 to - 62, with a change of - 13 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, LPG prices first declined and then rose. In the first half - week, the decline was due to the fading of geopolitical sentiment and weak international oil prices. In the second half - week, the prices were driven up by the sharp rebound of oil and natural gas prices, the reduction of warrant pressure, and the strengthening of downstream propylene and polypropylene prices. The international propane supply remains tight, and the CP price fluctuates upward. Looking ahead, the market is mixed with long and short factors, and prices will tend to consolidate or slightly correct [4]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral view is wide - range oscillation; for arbitrage, it is recommended to short the spread between LPG and crude oil; for options, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: LPG prices had a volatile week. The supply from refineries increased slightly this period, but the arrivals were still low. The combustion demand was supported, but the chemical demand weakened significantly, showing the negative feedback of high - priced propane. The market is expected to be range - bound or slightly decline [4]. - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [5]. - Arbitrage: Short the spread between LPG and crude oil [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - The crude oil market is in a state of mixed long - and - short factors and sideways consolidation. The cold wave in Europe and the US has a short - term positive impact on the market through the demand for heating fuel. Geopolitical risks have eased, and EIA data shows an increase in US commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories. The IEA slightly raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 but emphasized a significant supply surplus in the first quarter [8][10]. 3.2.2 Supply - The utilization rate of domestic major refineries increased by 1.54% to 78.78%, reaching a high level for the same period, mainly due to the increased load of Yunnan Petrochemical and the start - up of Shanghai Petrochemical. The utilization rate of independent refineries decreased slightly by 0.27% to 60.75%, at a historically low level, due to insufficient crude oil reserves in some refineries. Overall, the supply increased this week, and it may continue to rise next week [13]. 3.2.3 Demand - The chemical demand weakened significantly. The PDH operating rate dropped by 10.82% to 62.25%, at a low historical level due to the shutdown of some devices. The MTBE operating rate increased slightly by 0.44% to 68.01%. The capacity utilization rate of alkylation oil decreased by 0.96 percentage points. The negative feedback of high - priced overseas propane on the demand side became evident [16]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Port inventories decreased due to a slight reduction in arrivals and weakened chemical demand. Factory inventories increased because of heavy snowfall and increased supply, which led to poor sales in some areas. The inventory trends of tertiary stations in different regions were divergent [20]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Price Data - Relevant price data includes Brent, WTI, CP, FEI, and LPG futures prices, showing their trends over different time periods [24]. 3.3.2 Spread Data - It shows the spread data between different LPG products, such as the spread between South China civil LPG, East China civil LPG, Shandong ether - post C4, and the futures contract, as well as the seasonal trends of LPG basis [27]. 3.3.3 Disk Profit Data - It presents the import profit of LPG based on CP and FEI, as well as the profit of PDH propylene and polypropylene [30]. 3.3.4 Spot Profit Data - It shows the import profit of LPG based on FOB, CFR, and the profit of PDH propylene and polypropylene, as well as the profit of isomerization etherification and dehydrogenation etherification [33]. 3.3.5 Supply Data - It includes the capacity utilization rates of major and independent refineries, LPG commercial volume, crude oil processing volume, and the maintenance schedules of domestic major refineries and PDH devices [36][38][40]. 3.3.6 Inventory Data - It shows the inventory data of LPG ports, the capacity utilization rate of tertiary stations in different regions, and the port capacity ratio [46].

Sugar Market - Raw sugar prices continue to fluctuate within a range, with Thailand's sugarcane crushing volume for the 25/26 season at 29.26 million tons, down 16.09% from last year [2][15] - The sugar content in sugarcane is 11.95%, slightly up from 11.87% last year, while the sugar production rate is 9.79%, down from 9.81% [2][15] - Domestic sugar prices are quoted at 5260-5360 CNY/ton in Guangxi and 5110-5160 CNY/ton in Yunnan, with import estimates for quota within 4020-4030 CNY/ton and outside quota at 5090-5100 CNY/ton [2][15] Cotton Market - The USDA's January report has reduced global cotton production expectations, with U.S. and Indian production down, while China's production is expected to increase [5][17] - The global cotton production forecast for 2025/26 is 26.003 million tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons from the previous month [5][18] - As of January 15, China's cotton processing volume is 7.128 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons year-on-year [5][21] Demand and Retail - Retail sales growth in December slowed, particularly in clothing and textiles, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.6% in clothing and related goods [5][23] - The overall yarn production load was 48.98%, down 0.4 percentage points week-on-week, while cotton yarn factory load was 45.9%, down 0.2 percentage points [5][23] Import and Export - The cotton price difference between domestic and international markets remains high, with cotton and yarn imports reaching recent highs, while clothing exports remain weak [5][24] - In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 60,000 tons month-on-month and 40,000 tons year-on-year [5][25] - Clothing and accessory exports in December amounted to $13.412 billion, down 10.19% year-on-year [5][25] Inventory Levels - Commercial cotton inventory in China as of mid-January is 5.8623 million tons, up 77,600 tons month-on-month and 83,300 tons year-on-year [5][26] - The overall inventory of yarn is approximately 32 days, with a slight decrease week-on-week [5][26] International Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment is experiencing disturbances, with limited fundamental drivers, leading to a predominantly fluctuating market [5][10] - The USDA's January report indicates a slight improvement in the supply-demand balance for U.S. cotton, but the overall market remains oversupplied [5][27] Domestic Market Focus - The focus is shifting back to fundamentals as the market anticipates the impact of upcoming policies, with cotton production expected to reach a ten-year high [5][28] - The cotton commercial inventory is at a peak for the 2025/26 season, expected to decline after February [5][28]