1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is continuously disturbed by the progress of the US - Iran negotiations, and the price of crude oil is oscillating strongly. The chemical industry has a good start after the Spring Festival. Although there is inventory accumulation, it may continue the oscillating pattern. The overall outlook is that the crude oil will maintain high volatility, and the chemical prices will continue to oscillate and consolidate [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: API crude oil has a large inventory build - up, and the US - Iran geopolitical situation continuously disturbs the market. The supply is expected to be loose this year, but the geopolitical premium is significant. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [2][7]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price rises, and the asphalt futures price goes up. The long - term supply of raw materials is expected to be abundant, and the current price is over - valued. It is expected to oscillate, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline [6][7]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price still has a high geopolitical premium. The increase in Venezuelan oil production is expected to put long - term pressure on it. It is expected to oscillate, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [8]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate upwards. Although it faces some negative factors, its current valuation is low. It is expected to oscillate and follow the crude oil fluctuations [9]. - **PX**: The cost boost and the warm commodity sentiment resonate, and the price center moves up. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the mid - term logic of buying on dips remains [10]. - **PTA**: Supported by cost and tariff policies, it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of the polyester industry. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: After the festival, it makes up for the price increase. The fundamentals in Q1 are better than those in Q4, but the inventory pressure is still large. It is expected to oscillate [12][13]. - **Styrene**: After the festival, it makes up for the price increase. The seasonal inventory build - up height in February is adjusted downwards, but the support strength declines. It is expected to oscillate [14][15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price rebound is limited due to supply - demand pressure, and the support below is enhanced. It is expected to maintain range consolidation in the short - term [16][18]. - **Short - fiber**: Supported by cost and tariff reduction, it is beneficial for export. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [18][19]. - **Bottle Chip**: The cost boost is obvious. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the support for processing fees below is enhanced [20]. - **Methanol**: After the festival, the overseas geopolitical disturbance continues, and it oscillates widely. It is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress between the US and Iran [22][23]. - **Urea**: Driven by post - festival demand, it oscillates strongly. Although there is upward momentum, the upward space is limited [24]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The geopolitical disturbance boosts the sentiment, and it rebounds slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [28]. - **PP**: The basis is weak, and the futures price follows the crude oil to rebound slightly in the short - term. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [29]. - **PL**: Supported by the spot and the rising oil price, it rebounds. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [30]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance still exists, and it may oscillate. The high inventory forms a suppression, and the market sentiment is supported by the geopolitical disturbance and the spring inspection expectation [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectation, it oscillates. The high inventory suppresses, but the spring inspection and downstream restocking support it [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each variety [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of each variety also have corresponding changes, which can reflect the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the inventory situation to a certain extent [35]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. have changed, which can help analyze the relative price relationships between different varieties [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific monitoring data and analysis content are provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the commodity index all show different degrees of increase, reflecting the overall upward trend of the market [275][276].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Crude oil, LPG, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, asphalt [1][2][3][4][7] - **Bearish**: Glass, soda ash [7] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Natural gas [7] - **Rebound**: L, PP, PVC [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude oil**: Geopolitics dominates oil prices. Before the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is resolved, oil prices are expected to remain strong. The supply is still in surplus, and OPEC+ may continue to increase production in April. Attention should be paid to the changes in US shale oil production and geopolitical developments in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East [1][10]. - **LPG**: The cost side is favorable, and LPG is expected to fluctuate strongly. The cost side is affected by geopolitical disturbances in the short term, and the supply and demand are both increasing, but the inventory is bearish [1]. - **L**: It is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate strongly after the holiday. The petrochemical inventory is at a five-year low before the holiday, but there is a high de-stocking pressure if the demand recovery is insufficient [1][20]. - **PP**: It is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate strongly after the holiday. The PDH profit is still at a low level, and the cost has support. Attention should be paid to the demand verification and inventory accumulation after the holiday [1][24]. - **PVC**: It is expected to follow the oil price and fluctuate strongly after the holiday, but the upside is still restricted by high inventory. The chlor-alkali comprehensive profit has been repaired, but the supply side is still under pressure [1][27]. - **PTA**: The valuation is relatively reasonable, and it is expected to open higher after the holiday. The supply side has slight changes, the downstream demand is seasonally weak but the post-holiday start-up is expected to improve, and the cost side is affected by the rise in oil prices [2][29]. - **MEG**: The valuation is low, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply side is increasing, the demand side is expected to pick up after the holiday, and the inventory is high but the pressure is expected to be relieved [3][32]. - **Methanol**: The valuation is at the 50.8% quantile in the past three months, and it is cautiously bullish. The domestic methanol plant start-up is slightly declining but still at a high level, the overseas plant load is expected to increase, and the demand side is expected to improve [3][36]. - **Urea**: The absolute valuation is not low, and it is cautiously bullish. The overall start-up load is continuously rising, the demand side has weak reality but strong expectations, and there is support from the spring fertilizer use and export expectations [4][40]. - **Natural gas**: The demand side has support, and the gas price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The US temperature has dropped recently, the demand side has support, and the supply side has recovered, with an increase in export volume [7][46]. - **Asphalt**: The cost side has increased, and the asphalt price is expected to be strong after the holiday. The cost side is affected by geopolitical disturbances, the valuation is high, and the supply and demand fundamentals are improving [7][50]. - **Glass**: The supply and demand are in a weak balance, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level. The daily melting volume has continuously declined, and attention should be paid to the post-holiday inventory accumulation [7][55]. - **Soda ash**: Attention should be paid to the post-holiday inventory accumulation, and it is expected to oscillate within a range. The real estate demand is weak, the heavy alkali demand support is insufficient, and it is advisable to short on rallies before the maintenance intensifies [7][59]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Oil prices rose during the Spring Festival and slightly declined overnight. WTI slightly decreased by 0.26%, Brent slightly decreased by 0.87%, and the domestic SC had no quotation [10]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitics dominates oil prices in the short term, and the supply is still in surplus. Before the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is resolved, oil prices are expected to remain strong [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The IEA latest monthly report predicts that the global oil supply increment in 2026 will be 2.5 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.1 million barrels per day compared with last month. The demand is expected to increase by 0.85 million barrels per day, higher than last month's prediction. The US crude oil inventory increased by 8.53 million barrels to 428.82 million barrels in the week ending February 6 [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium and long term, the supply and demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter, and attention should be paid to the production changes in non-OPEC+ regions. In the short term, it will oscillate and adjust, with increased volatility. SC should focus on the range of [480 - 500] [12]. LPG - **Market Review**: On February 13, the PG main contract closed at 4,307 yuan/ton, a 0.28% increase. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,500 (+10) yuan/ton, 4,444 (-31) yuan/ton, and 4,740 (-10) yuan/ton respectively [15]. - **Basic Logic**: The price mainly depends on the cost side of oil prices. The short-term oil prices have rebounded due to geopolitical disturbances, which is favorable for the cost side. The supply and demand side is bearish as the downstream chemical demand has weakened and the inventory has increased [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium and long term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to move down. In the short term, the cost side of oil prices has increased uncertainty and is under pressure in the long term. PG should focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,300] [17]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract's basis was -204 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was -65 yuan/ton [19]. - **Basic Logic**: It is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate strongly after the holiday. The petrochemical inventory was at a five-year low before the holiday, but there is a high de-stocking pressure if the demand recovery is insufficient [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: L should focus on the range of [6,650 - 6,850] [20]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract's basis was 47 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was -25 yuan/ton [23]. - **Basic Logic**: It is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate strongly after the holiday. The PDH profit is still at a low level, and the cost has support. Attention should be paid to the demand verification and inventory accumulation after the holiday [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PP should focus on the range of [6,550 - 6,750] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract's basis was -155 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was -122 yuan/ton [26]. - **Basic Logic**: It is expected to follow the oil price and fluctuate strongly after the holiday, but the upside is still restricted by high inventory. The chlor-alkali comprehensive profit has been repaired, but the supply side is still under pressure [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PVC should focus on the range of [4,800 - 5,000] [27]. PTA - **Market Review**: As of February 13, the TA05 contract closed at 5,204 yuan/ton, at the 81.0% quantile in the past three months. The basis was -74 (+16) yuan/ton, and the TA5-9 spread was 32 (+10) yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has slight changes, the downstream demand is seasonally weak but the post-holiday start-up is expected to improve, and the cost side is affected by the rise in oil prices. PTA will have a slight inventory accumulation in January - February, but the outlook is positive [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and buy on significant pullbacks for the 05 contract. TA05 should focus on the range of [5,250 - 5,500] [30]. MEG - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract's basis was -103 (-10) yuan/ton, and the EG5-9 spread was -118 (-107) yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low, the supply side is increasing, the demand side is expected to pick up after the holiday, and the inventory is high but the pressure is expected to be relieved. The fundamentals are expected to improve in March - April [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. EG05 should focus on the range of [3,780 - 3,980] [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol main contract was at the 50.8% quantile in the past three months, the comprehensive profit was -210.7 (-15.8) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 12 (+42) yuan/ton [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol plant start-up is slightly declining but still at a high level, the overseas plant load is expected to increase, and the demand side is expected to improve. The inventory is expected to decrease in March [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to be strong after the holiday. MA05 should focus on the range of [2,220 - 2,300] [38]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea main contract closed at 1,833 (-10) yuan/ton, at the 98.4% quantile in the past three months. The comprehensive profit was 126.51 (+7.6) yuan/ton, and the Shandong small particle basis was -23 (+10) yuan/ton [41]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply side pressure is large, but the demand side is expected to improve. There is support from the spring fertilizer use and export expectations. The inventory is continuously decreasing [40][41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to oscillate strongly after the holiday. UR05 should focus on the range of [1,810 - 1,850] [42]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On February 20, the NG main contract closed at 3.010 US dollars per million British thermal units, a 2.07% increase. The US Henry Hub spot was 3.230 (-0.160) US dollars per million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot was 12.048 (+0.096) US dollars per million British thermal units, and the Chinese LNG market price was 3,652 (-31) yuan/ton [45]. - **Basic Logic**: The US temperature has dropped recently, the demand side has support, and the supply side has recovered, with an increase in export volume. The gas price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the winter, the demand side supports the gas price, but the support will gradually decline as the cold winter fades. NG should focus on the range of [2.830 - 3.051] [47]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 13, the BU main contract closed at 3,264 yuan/ton, a 1.89% decrease. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3,210 (+0) yuan/ton, 3,290 (+0) yuan/ton, and 3,310 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [49]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is affected by geopolitical disturbances, the valuation is high, and the supply and demand fundamentals are improving. The demand side is expected to gradually recover after the Spring Festival [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is high, and the supply side has increased uncertainty. Attention should be paid to the subsequent import of asphalt raw materials. BU should focus on the range of [3,300 - 3,400] [51]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract's basis was -11 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was -97 yuan/ton [54]. - **Basic Logic**: The daily melting volume has continuously declined, and the basis has strengthened. The supply and demand are in a weak balance. Attention should be paid to the post-holiday inventory accumulation [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG should focus on the range of [1,020 - 1,070] [55]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract's basis was -45 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was -69 yuan/ton [58]. - **Basic Logic**: Attention should be paid to the post-holiday inventory accumulation. The real estate demand is weak, the heavy alkali demand support is insufficient, and it is advisable to short on rallies before the maintenance intensifies [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA should focus on the range of [1,120 - 1,170] [59].

Core Insights - The agricultural futures market is showing strong performance during the Spring Festival holiday, with commodities like soybean oil, wheat, and sugar rising by approximately 3% [2][14] - Post-holiday, the market is expected to focus on three core variables: supply, demand, and inventory, which will drive the price trends of various agricultural products [17][16] Cotton and Sugar - The cotton market is influenced by policy changes and emotional trading patterns, with prices fluctuating between 14,500 and 15,000 yuan/ton. Key factors include the planting area for new cotton and adjustments in target price policies [18][19] - The sugar market faces complexities, including domestic prices falling below production costs, uncertainties in new sugarcane planting areas, and the impact of imported sugar on domestic prices [19][20] Corn and Soybeans - For corn and soybeans, supply is the main focus, with inventory playing a secondary role. Recent price increases are attributed to reduced production forecasts for high-quality corn and soybeans in 2025 [19][22] - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend due to low inventory levels and upcoming demand from the school season [22][23] Apples and Dates - The apple market is experiencing high prices despite weak demand and ample supply, while the red date market is expected to be influenced by inventory reduction [20] - Both markets are characterized by a focus on quality and demand rather than production costs [20] Pork and Eggs - The pork and egg markets are currently facing high production capacity and slow inventory reduction, with prices at historical lows. The market outlook remains cautious [20][24] - The dynamics of the pork market are shifting towards a tighter supply situation post-holiday, contrary to typical seasonal expectations [24][25] Meal and Oil - The soybean meal market's supply is contingent on the import volume of soybeans and processing rates, with potential price rebounds if supply tightens [21] - The oil market is characterized by overall ample supply, with interdependencies between domestic and international markets affecting prices [21][29] Overall Market Trends - The agricultural futures index has shown a rising trend, reflecting the overall positive sentiment in the market [27] - The cotton and sugar markets are expected to be influenced by seasonal demand and policy changes, while corn and soybean markets are likely to benefit from reduced supply and increased demand [28][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The urea market is affected by news, with the futures market showing a strong trend. The current urea guidance price remains unchanged, and manufacturers have no pressure in pre - holiday orders. It is expected that the price will remain firm before the Spring Festival [2] - In January, some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing, and manufacturers' pre - holiday orders are mostly completed. Some off - season reserve supplies will be released in February. Near the Spring Festival, the compound fertilizer production rate decreased, while the melamine production rate increased, with rigid demand for procurement. Overall, the inventory in urea factories decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [2] - Due to the situation in Iran, the international urea price has risen. India's RCF issued a urea import tender on February 7, with an intention of 150,000 tons. The follow - up needs to focus on export dynamics, off - season reserve release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On February 12, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,843 yuan/ton (+46). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,810 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,800 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,810 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton (-46), in Henan was - 33 yuan/ton (-36), and in Jiangsu was - 33 yuan/ton (-46) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of February 12, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 90.59% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 834,700 tons (-83,800 tons), while the port sample inventory was 166,000 tons (+1,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 235 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 1,049 yuan/ton (+1) [1] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report does not provide specific information on foreign market prices and export profit other than the export profit data mentioned above [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of February 12, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 36.19% (-5.60%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.77% (+2.82%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 11.12 days (+2.30) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 834,700 tons (-83,800 tons), and the port sample inventory was 166,000 tons (+1,000 tons) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillation [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 when the spread is low [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The supply and demand of steel are both weakening, and steel prices are fluctuating. Glass and soda ash are experiencing range - bound oscillations due to pre - holiday cautious sentiment. For double silicon, the market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode as the Spring Festival approaches [1][3] - Glass market fundamentals have no obvious improvement. Although the expected production halt in Shahe eases supply pressure, pre - holiday demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Soda ash supply is abundant with new production projects advancing, and pre - holiday demand is seasonally low [1] - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved slightly with expected increase in iron - water production, but inventory pressure remains high. The fundamentals of silicon iron are controllable, and demand is expected to improve marginally as steel mills resume production, but overall over - capacity restricts price increases [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass contracts showed narrow - range fluctuations yesterday, with decreasing positions as the holiday nears. Spot prices are stable, but trading volume is low. This week, cold - repair of production lines increased, daily melting volume dropped, and inventory rose. Soda ash contracts also had narrow - range fluctuations, with low spot trading volume. This week, soda ash production increased slightly, heavy - ash inventory rose slightly, and light - ash inventory decreased [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass fundamentals have no significant improvement. The expected production halt in Shahe eases supply pressure, but pre - holiday demand is weak, and inventory accumulation continues. Soda ash supply is in a loose pattern. With new production projects advancing, production remains high, and inventory is increasing. Pre - holiday demand drops seasonally, and the new production projects need to be monitored [1] Strategy - Glass: Range - bound fluctuations; Soda ash: Range - bound fluctuations; No strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [2] Double Silicon Market Analysis - Silicon manganese futures continued to fluctuate slightly, and the market was quiet with a strong holiday atmosphere. The price of 6517 silicon manganese is 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the southern market. Silicon iron futures followed the overall black - metal market downwards, and the spot market was weak. Most of the market is in a wait - and - see mode. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon manganese fundamentals have improved slightly, and iron - water production is expected to increase, leading to marginal improvement in demand. However, inventory pressure is still high. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs. Silicon iron fundamentals are controllable. Enterprises are reducing production, and demand is expected to improve as steel mills resume production. But overall over - capacity restricts price increases, and inventory reduction and power - price policies need to be monitored [3] Strategy - Silicon manganese: Range - bound fluctuations; Silicon iron: Range - bound fluctuations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the precious metals market has a negative impact on the overall market, but the relatively strong manufacturing PMIs in the US and Europe provide some support. The copper market shows a tight supply of copper ore and a relatively sufficient supply of refined copper, with copper prices expected to remain range - bound at high levels during the holiday. Aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate with an upward bias due to stronger overseas supply - demand fundamentals. The lead market is currently in a weak state, and whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery manufacturers after the Spring Festival. The zinc industry is also weak, but zinc prices may rise following the non - ferrous metal sector due to positive macro - economic expectations. Tin prices are expected to trade in a wide range, and short - term operations are recommended to wait and see. Nickel prices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain tight in the short term, and upstream producers may have more bargaining power. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed, and the key lies in the impact of disruptions in Guinea's mining and the alleviation of high domestic supply pressure. Stainless steel maintains a strategy of buying on dips. Cast aluminum alloy prices have short - term support [5][8][10][12][14][16][19][22][25][28] Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight silver and US stocks declined, causing copper prices to rise first and then fall. LME copper 3M closed down 2.9% at $12,855/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 100,030 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 4,550 tons to 196,650 tons. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased slightly. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong was at a discount to futures, and the import of SHFE copper was at a loss of over 900 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,100 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The decline in precious metals dampens market sentiment, but the relatively strong manufacturing PMIs in the US and Europe provide support. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the supply of refined copper is relatively sufficient. During the long holiday, copper prices are expected to remain range - bound at high levels. Today, the reference range for SHFE copper's main contract is 99,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is $12,500 - 13,200/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum smelter in Mozambique is expected to shut down for maintenance in March. Precious metals and US stocks declined, causing aluminum prices to rise first and then fall. LME aluminum closed down 0.63% at $3,097/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 23,395 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum's weighted contract positions decreased by 16,000 to 647,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 33,000 to 201,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories increased, the processing fee for aluminum bars continued to rebound, and the market entered a holiday state. The spot in East China was at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to futures, and LME aluminum inventories decreased by 2,200 tons to 484,000 tons [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. LME aluminum inventories remain at a relatively low level, and the high premium of US aluminum in the spot market provides strong support for aluminum prices. With stronger overseas supply - demand fundamentals, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias during the long holiday. Today, the reference range for SHFE aluminum's main contract is 23,200 - 23,600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is $3,050 - 3,140/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE lead index closed 0.29% lower at 16,705 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 120,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME lead 3S rose $8 to $1,986/ton, with a total open interest of 175,900 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 53,000 tons, and the domestic primary basis was - 60 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 233,000 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 16,100 tons. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 57,400 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from February 9 [9] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years. The processing fee for lead concentrates remains at a low level. The inventory of waste batteries continues to rise, higher than in 2025. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of smelters declines seasonally. Lead ingot social inventories continue to accumulate, and the domestic industry is currently in a weak state. Current lead prices are close to the lower end of the long - term trading range, but downstream consumption is mediocre. Whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery manufacturers after the Spring Festival [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE zinc index closed 0.18% higher at 24,678 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 193,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME zinc 3S rose $8 to $3,424.5/ton, with a total open interest of 235,500 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,480 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 43,100 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 105,300 tons. The social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 138,100 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from February 9 [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The accumulation of visible zinc ore inventory has slowed down, and the TC of zinc concentrates has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate. The operating performance of downstream enterprises is mediocre, and the finished - product inventories of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises have increased rapidly. The domestic zinc industry is in a weak state. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - economic sentiment. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, there is still a risk of abnormal price movements in non - ferrous metals during the holiday. The strong US PMI has boosted market expectations of a recovery in consumption, which may drive zinc prices to rise following the non - ferrous metal sector [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On February 12, tin prices fluctuated. The main SHFE tin contract closed at 391,320 yuan/ton, down 0.86% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained stable at a high level last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, the upward momentum was insufficient after the two regions resumed from maintenance, and there were constraints on the scrap side and high - price wait - and - see attitudes from downstream. In the short term, supply is difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although the price decline has released some rigid procurement demand and spot trading has improved slightly, the overall price is still at a high level, and downstream restocking willingness before the festival is still not obvious, with most adopting a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure on end - user industries from the overall rise in the metal sector, the upward transmission speed of demand is slow, and the actual support for the spot market is limited [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the second decline in precious metals prices, there are signs of stabilization, and tin prices may rebound accordingly. Although tin prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long - term, in the short term, with the marginal easing of tin ingot supply - demand and the steady increase in inventory recently, there is also pressure for a significant increase. It is expected that tin prices will mainly trade in a wide range. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is $46,000 - 50,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 12, nickel prices fluctuated. The main SHFE nickel contract closed at 139,610 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums of various brands remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the nearby contract was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron averaged 1,048 yuan/nickel point, up 0.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the second decline in precious metals and risk - asset prices, there are signs of stabilization, with short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and short - term nickel prices are expected to mainly trade in a wide range. On the evening of February 10, Tri Winarno, the Director - General of Minerals and Coal at the ESDM Ministry, revealed that the approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons, which is close to market expectations and is expected to have a limited impact on nickel prices. The reference trading range for SHFE nickel prices is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contracts, it is $16,000 - 18,000/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 142,316 yuan in the evening session, up 2.30% from the previous working day. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3,200 yuan (+2.29%) to 138,800 - 146,700 yuan, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.31%. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 149,420 yuan, down 0.56% from the previous day's closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,200 yuan. The SMM weekly inventory was 102,932 tons, down 2,531 tons (-2.4%) from the previous week, with a decrease of 1,436 tons in the upstream and 1,095 tons in the downstream and other sectors [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On Thursday, the futures market adjusted, and the Wenhua Commodity Index fell 0.22%. On the supply side, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate has decreased by about 10.7% from the peak. On the demand side, the demand expectation is strong, and the production schedule of the material sector in March is expected to increase significantly. It is expected that the short - term supply - demand tightness of domestic lithium carbonate will continue. If there is no unexpected supply recovery in the mining sector, upstream producers will have more bargaining power in the post - holiday spot market. In the future, attention should be paid to the atmosphere in the commodity market, the resumption progress of lithium mines in Jiangxi, and the changes in the tradable inventory of salt plants and traders. Today, the reference trading range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 143,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 12, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index fell 0.29% to 2,812 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 441,800 lots, a decrease of 16,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 253 yuan/ton to the main contract [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the mining end, workers at a mine in the Boké region of Guinea have launched an indefinite strike. This region is the core area for Guinea's bauxite. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike will expand. Currently, production and shipping are normal. The over - capacity situation at the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although there have been more capacity maintenance recently, the overall output is still at a high level. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. The key to future price trends lies in whether the disturbances at the Guinea mining end can materialize and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated through policies or market means. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to domestic supply - reduction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Thursday, the main stainless - steel contract closed at 13,970 yuan/ton, down 1.24% (-174) from the previous day, with an open interest of 198,500 lots, a decrease of 6,938 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in the Foshan market remained at 14,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in the Wuxi market remained at 14,150 yuan/ton. The Foshan basis was - 240 (-300), and the Wuxi basis was - 90 (-300). The price of Hongwang 201 in Foshan was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Hongwang annealed 430 was 7,750 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, and the recycling price of 304 scrap steel industrial materials in Baoding was 9,000 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The high - carbon ferrochrome price in the northern main - producing area was 8,550 yuan/50 - base ton, also unchanged. The futures inventory was 55,253 tons, an increase of 762 tons from the previous day. As of February 6, social inventories increased to 914,200 tons, a 1.07% increase from the previous period, with the 300 - series inventory at 632,000 tons, a 2.49% increase [24] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: From the supply side, although the supply of raw materials has recovered, under the influence of the steel mill's price - limit policy, the shipment rhythm of agents has generally slowed down. On the demand side, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness is not strong, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Traders mostly choose to actively sell goods, reduce inventory, and mainly execute previous orders, with weak willingness to actively stock up. Steel mills will cut production collectively in February, and the market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively controllable. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals still have support, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. The reference range for the main contract is 13,500 - 14,500 yuan/ton [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded slightly. The main AD2604 contract closed 0.25% higher at 22,260 yuan/ton (as of 15:00). The weighted contract positions decreased to 23,400 lots, and the trading volume was 11,200 lots, with increased trading volume. Warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 66,600 tons. The price difference between the AL2604 and AD2604 contracts was 1,430 yuan/ton, narrowing compared to the previous period. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 remained stable, and the

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 5043.15 with a change of -34.70 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 83.52 with a change of -2.58 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 2160.00 with a change of 40.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1764.00 with a change of 31.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 62.84 with a change of -1.79 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 13219.00 with a change of 49.00 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest price is 96.91 with a change of -0.01 [1] - Euro to US Dollar's latest price is 1.19 with a change of 0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest price is 1.36 with a change of -0.00 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest price is 152.75 with a change of -0.52 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest price is 1.86 with a change of 0.00 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory's latest value is 11795.47 with a change of -72.65 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory's latest value is 349.63 with a change of 7.53 [1] - Gold ETF持仓's latest value is 1076.18 with a change of -5.14 [1] - Silver ETF持仓's latest value is 16174.18 with a change of -62.00 [1] - SGE Silver inventory's latest value is 504.96 with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction's latest value is 2 with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction's latest value is 2 with a change of 0.00 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - The latest prices and their daily and weekly changes of various grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions are presented, including Ningxia 72, Inner Mongolia 72, etc. [1] - Price trends of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions from 2022 - 2026 are shown, such as 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, etc. [2] Supply - Production data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are provided, including the output of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China (monthly and weekly) and the production of silicomanganese in China (weekly) [4][6] - Capacity utilization rates of 136 ferrosilicon production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi are presented [4] Demand - Data on the demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are given, such as the demand for silicomanganese in China (in ten thousand tons) and the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by HeSteel Group [4][6][7] Inventory - Inventory data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are provided, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises of ferrosilicon in different regions (weekly) and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of silicomanganese in China (weekly) [5][7] - Information on the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is presented [5][7] Cost and Profit - Cost and profit data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are given, including the production cost and profit of ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, etc. [5][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the steel market is experiencing weak stability before the holiday, with low fluctuations in futures steel prices [4][12] - In January, China's CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase [4][12] - The sales of excavators in January 2026 reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales up by 61.4% [4][12] Group 2 - The production of rebar decreased by 225,200 tons to 1,691,600 tons, with inventory increasing by 672,500 tons to 5,848,200 tons [5][14] - Hot-rolled coil production slightly decreased by 14,000 tons to 3,077,600 tons, while total inventory rose by 115,700 tons to 3,707,700 tons [5][14] - The average cost for independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 3,296 yuan per ton, with an average loss of 520 yuan per ton [4][12] Group 3 - The total supply of five major steel products was 7,940,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 258,400 tons, while total inventory increased by 1,449,300 tons, a rise of 7.8% [4][12] - The steel market is currently in a weak supply-demand situation, with steel mills implementing production cuts as the holiday approaches [5][14] - The strategy for rebar is to observe support around 3,050, while for hot-rolled coil, support is around 3,200 [6][15]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current oil prices have risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. Given the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, previous short positions should take profits, and short - term observation is recommended [5]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differentials has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so short positions on rallies are recommended [8]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a hedging position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity reduction expectations, and export rush support PVC. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, positions can be gradually liquidated [21]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate is declining [24]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period of history. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil on dips after the Spring Festival [30]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [33]. - For ethylene glycol, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high production. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and there is a risk of rebound [35]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 0.90 yuan/barrel, or 0.19%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 8.53 million barrels to 428.83 million barrels, a 2.03% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan, Henan, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 10.00 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and other regions remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 1843 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 63 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. Bulls were optimistic due to macro, seasonal, and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.94%, and that of semi - steel tires was 73.42% [11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 52 yuan to 4938 yuan. The overall operating rate was 79.3%, an increase of 0.3%. The downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a decrease of 3.3%. Factory inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and social inventory was 122.7 tons (+ 2.1) [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China rose 87.5 yuan/ton to 6103 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene fell 150 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 10.86 million tons [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6787 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6585 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a decrease of 0.27%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.67 million tons to 37.97 million tons [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6693 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a decrease of 0.01%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 1.49 million tons to 41.58 million tons [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 62 yuan to 7202 yuan. China's PX load was 92%, an increase of 2.5%. Asian load was 83.7%, an increase of 1.3%. In early February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 17.5 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons year - on - year [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 40 yuan to 5220 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 25 yuan to 5205 yuan. The PTA load was 74.8%, a decrease of 2.8%. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 232.6 million tons, an increase of 21 million tons [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 41 yuan to 3723 yuan. The spot price in East China fell 13 yuan to 3639 yuan. The supply - side load was 76.8%, an increase of 0.7%. Port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 93.5 million tons [34].