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对二甲苯:趋势偏强,PTA:成本支撑偏强,MEG:上方空间有限,中期仍有压力
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 01:25
Report Investment Ratings - PX: Strong upward trend [1][5] - PTA: Strong cost support, upward trend [1][5] - MEG: Limited upside, medium - term pressure [1][6] Core Views - PX's tight supply expectation can't be falsified in the short - term despite polyester plant's planned production cuts, so its unilateral price trend is strong and it squeezes downstream profits [5] - PTA has strong cost support due to PX's strength, with supply tightening and a continued de - stocking pattern, so its unilateral trend is upward [5] - MEG has a medium - term weak trend. Low valuation, high domestic operating rate, high port inventory and polyester production cut expectations limit its price increase [6] Market Data Summary Futures - PX, PTA, PF prices rose yesterday with increases of 0.88%, 1.14%, 0.86% respectively, while SC decreased by 0.45%, and MEG remained unchanged [2] - PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, PF12 - 1 month - spreads increased, while MEG1 - 5 and SC11 - 12 decreased [2] Spot - PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG spot prices rose, while naphtha MOPJ decreased, and Dated Brent increased [2] - PX - naphtha spread and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread increased, while PTA, short - fiber and bottle - chip processing fees decreased [2] Market Dynamics Summary PTA - This week, Ineos' 1.1 million - ton and Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million - ton plants restarted, Yisheng New Materials reduced load, and some plants had short - stops. By Thursday, PTA load was 70.8% [3] MEG - As of December 25, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 72.15% (up 0.18% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 76.37% (up 0.91% from the previous period) [3] Polyester - This week, the operating load of large - scale polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable. As of Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was about 75%. (Since January 2025, the production capacity base of polyester industrial yarn has been adjusted to 3.28 million tons) [3] - One polyester filament plant is shutting down, one filament plant restarted and produced normally, and one new bottle - chip plant produced products. In addition, three major polyester filament manufacturers cut production collectively, involving load reduction of some polyester plants [3] - Since December 1, 2025, the polyester production capacity in mainland China has been revised up to 89.84 million tons, with new 300,000 - ton plants of Xinjiang Yuxin and Anhui Youshun. As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was about 89.7% [5] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [5] Views and Suggestions PX - Pay attention to long PX short PF/PR/BZ/EB positions and 5 - 9 positive spreads [5] PTA - Go long on PTA, short PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB, hold positive spreads [5] MEG - Medium - term trend is weak, upside is limited [6]
螺纹钢上行驱动力不足
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-25 23:32
Core Viewpoint - The rebar steel futures prices have shown a low-level fluctuation since December, with the main contract oscillating between 3030 and 3180 yuan/ton, recently returning to the upper end of this range. However, the spot prices have followed suit but are limited by weak downstream demand entering the off-season [1] Group 1: Short-term Positive Factors - The recent rebound in rebar futures prices is supported by three main positive factors: first, renewed policy expectations have strengthened the "anti-involution" trading logic, leading to a strong rise in related varieties and boosting overall market sentiment [1] - Second, raw material prices have stabilized, particularly iron ore prices, which have shown strong performance, supporting steel price trends from the cost side [1] - Third, under low supply conditions, inventory pressure has significantly eased [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the low supply situation providing some support for steel prices, the fundamental conditions for rebar steel have not shown substantial improvement, continuing a weak supply-demand balance. Near the end of the year, production willingness among construction steel mills has weakened, with the latest weekly output at 1.8168 million tons, remaining at a low level compared to previous years, down 20.27% year-on-year [1] - The apparent demand for rebar steel is currently at 2.0864 million tons, which, although increased by 55,500 tons week-on-week, is still at one of the lowest levels in recent years, down 7.42% year-on-year. Other demand indicators, such as daily transactions and cement outflow, are also at low levels, indicating weak construction-related demand [2] Group 3: Cost Support and Supply Pressure - Although iron ore prices remain high, providing some cost support for steel, the supply-demand dynamics for iron ore are weak, making prices susceptible to downward pressure. If iron ore prices decline, the cost support for steel prices will weaken [3] - On the supply side, domestic port arrivals and miner shipments are at high levels for the year. Cumulatively, iron ore shipments have increased by over 45 million tons year-on-year, while domestic port arrivals have only increased by 1.912 million tons, indicating a significant discrepancy [3] - Overall, while short-term positive factors have pushed rebar steel prices back to the upper end of the fluctuation range, the weak supply-demand balance remains unchanged, and under off-season conditions, the upward driving force for steel prices is insufficient [3]
纯碱日报:短期震荡-20251225
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 11:45
发布日期:2025 年 12 月 25 日 一、市场行情回顾 【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报:短期震荡 1,期货市场:纯碱主力日内震荡,收十字星。成交量较昨日减 12.3 万手, 持仓量较昨日减 4142 手;日内最高 1195,最低 1174,收盘 1184,(较昨日结 算价)涨 6 元/吨,涨幅 0.51%。 2,现货市场:价格成交重心下移。企业装置大稳小动,个别产量提升,供 应有所增加。企业发货前期订单为主,库存震荡下行。下游需求表现一般,观望 情绪浓郁,低价刚需补库。 3,基差:华北重碱现货价格 1300,基差 116 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 进出口方面,11 月份国内纯碱出口量 18.94 万吨,环比-2.51 万吨。1-11 月累计出口量 196.12 万吨,较去年同期增加 92.25 万吨。11 月份国内纯碱进口 量在 0.025 万吨。1-11 月累计进口量为 2.17 万吨,较去年同期减少 94.67 万吨, 跌幅 97.76%。11 月份国内纯碱净出口 18.92 万吨;1-11 月累计净出口 193.95 万吨。 三、主要逻辑总结 供应方面,截止 12 月 25 日,国内纯碱产量 71 ...
芳烃市场周报:成本支撑,PX表现偏强(PX,纯苯,苯乙烯)-20251225
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 07:11
芳烃市场周报: 成本支撑,PX表现偏强 (PX,纯苯,苯乙烯) 姜周曦琳 F03114700 Z0022394 金融研究院 2025年12月25日 数据来源:WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 近期PX市场 数据来源:WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 • 成本:国际油价反弹,PX外盘价格连续上行,近期期现货价格偏强。中石化12月PX挂牌价格小幅上调至7000元/吨,11月中石化PX结算价格 6840元/吨。截止到12月24日,亚洲PX收于901美元/吨,较三季度末上涨92.17美元/吨,PX和石脑油价差收于360.75美元/吨,较三季度末上涨 143.67美元/吨。 • 供给:本周PX产量为74.82万吨,环比+0%。国内PX周均产能利用率89.21%,环比+0%。中化泉州80万吨PX装置11月25日停机检修,预计检修两 个月。福佳大化一套70万吨PX装置3月下旬停机,仍处于停机状态。PX工厂的生产积极性仍维持较好,海内外开工均处于高位,暂无装置变动。 • 需求:下游PTA周均产能利用率至73.81%,环比持平,同比-8.41%。本周国内装置无新调整。 • 总结与展望:自四季度起,下游需 ...
《有色》日报-20251225
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 01:45
| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月25日 星期四 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 我值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 94690 | 93470 | +1220.00 | 1.31% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -310 | -215 | -95.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 94895 | 03580 | +1315.00 | 1.41% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | -175 | -125 | -50.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 94620 | 93400 | +1220.00 | 1.31% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜开贴水 | -380 | -285 | -95.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 3544 | 3 ...
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20251225
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 01:16
期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025 年 12 月 25 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 预期现实博弈,钢价低位震荡 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 姓名:涂伟华 商品市场情绪偏暖,螺纹期价触底回升,但供需格局并未好转,螺纹产量小幅回升但依旧处于 年内低位,低供应未变,给予钢价支撑,但短流程钢厂利润改善,后续存回升预期。与此同时,螺 纹钢需求表现弱稳,高频需求指标虽环比增加,但仍是近年来同期低位,且下游行业也未好转,淡 ...
能源化策略报:煤油价格延续震荡整理,聚烯烃基差?幅?弱
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 01:14
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances affect the crude oil market, and the rebound of the chemical industry will be tortuous. The industry is expected to face challenges due to high inventories of liquid chemicals and geopolitical uncertainties [2][7] - Different energy and chemical products are expected to show various trends, including oscillation, rebound, and weakening, depending on factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Russia's crude oil exports reach a two - and - a - half - year high, with high floating storage. Oil prices should be treated with an oscillatory approach [9] - **Main Logic**: International crude oil futures continue to oscillate. Geopolitical trends are crucial. More refineries start to buy Russian oil as the discount narrows, but floating storage is increasing. Refined oil crack spreads are weak, and the oil price should be seen as oscillatory [12] - **Outlook**: The crude oil market may return to a pattern of weak supply - demand and continuous inventory accumulation after geopolitical tensions ease. Investors should adopt an oscillatory view [12] Asphalt - **View**: South China asphalt spot is at a discount to Shandong, and asphalt futures prices oscillate [13] - **Main Logic**: OPEC+增产 in December, the possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement exists, and the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation leads to expectations of raw material supply disruptions. The futures price oscillates widely. Also, high production in Hainan, South China's spot discount, and weak supply - demand all affect the price [13][14] - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [14] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices oscillate widely [3] - **Main Logic**: OPEC+增产, the possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the tense US - Venezuela situation drive the rebound. However, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region suppresses demand, and refinery demand is weak in the off - season [14] - **Outlook**: Supply - demand is weak [14] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil to oscillate [14] - **Main Logic**: It follows crude oil, has strong product attributes, but faces negative factors such as falling shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Currently, the supply has unexpectedly decreased, pushing up the valuation [14] - **Outlook**: It follows crude oil fluctuations due to low valuation and various negative factors [14] PX - **View**: Rumors of polyester factories continue to ferment, and the increase in the price of PX has narrowed [16] - **Main Logic**: International oil prices oscillate upwards, providing cost support. The rise of downstream PTA also supports PX, but rumors of polyester factory production cuts limit the increase. The supply of PX is sufficient [16] - **Outlook**: The short - term price will maintain high - level oscillation, with high profits. Caution is needed when chasing the price or short - selling [17] PTA - **View**: Rumors of polyester factory production cuts ferment, and the upward space is gradually narrowing [17] - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is high, and PTA's spot and processing fees have recovered. However, rumors of production cuts in polyester factories may limit the continuous increase [18] - **Outlook**: The price follows the cost to oscillate at a high level, and the processing fee will operate within a range [18] Pure Benzene - **View**: Supported by the strong external market, pure benzene oscillates [19] - **Main Logic**: The support comes from the external market, with US devices restarting. However, the domestic situation is poor, with high inventory pressure and a downward - adjusted future expectation [21] - **Outlook**: There is still inventory pressure, and the external market provides temporary support [21] Styrene - **View**: There are constraints on both rising and falling, and styrene oscillates [22] - **Main Logic**: It has been oscillating weakly recently due to negative feedback from downstream ABS. The lower support comes from the external pure benzene market, while the upper limit is due to pure benzene inventory pressure and the upcoming inventory build - up of styrene [23] - **Outlook**: It is about to enter a period of inventory build - up, with obvious upper - limit constraints. Export transactions may stimulate short - term rebounds [23] Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Overseas device shutdowns and capital sentiment disturbances lead to a low - level rebound of ethylene glycol [24] - **Main Logic**: After hitting a new low, the price rebounds due to supply adjustments such as the planned shutdown of Taiwan's devices. However, the inventory build - up period has not ended, and demand may be dragged down by polyester factory production cuts [26] - **Outlook**: The short - term price will maintain range - bound oscillation, and the rebound height is limited [26] Short - Fiber - **View**: The pattern of strong upstream and weak downstream is prominent, with serious differentiation and compressed profits [27] - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is strong, but the downstream demand is weak, resulting in compressed profits. The absolute price follows the upstream cost to oscillate [28] - **Outlook**: The price follows the upstream to oscillate strongly, and the processing fee is under short - term pressure [28] Polyester Bottle - Chip - **View**: The price is supported by upstream raw material costs [29] - **Main Logic**: The upstream costs of TA and EG increase, providing support. The market trading atmosphere is okay, and the price follows the raw materials to oscillate strongly in the short term [29] - **Outlook**: The absolute price fluctuates with the raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support [29] Methanol - **View**: The inland market is weak, and the coastal market is stalemate. Methanol should be seen as oscillatory [32] - **Main Logic**: There is a significant differentiation between the inland and coastal markets. The inland supply is abundant, and the coastal inventory is high, suppressing the price [33] - **Outlook**: Short - term wide - range oscillation [33] Urea - **View**: Supported by compound fertilizer and export demand, the futures price oscillates strongly [33] - **Main Logic**: Environmental restrictions on supply end have ended, and demand from compound fertilizer and exports provides support. The inventory has decreased [34] - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation is strong, but it may not last long. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction, off - season storage progress, and compound fertilizer factory operations [34] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The futures price rebounds, the basis weakens, and LLDPE should be treated with an oscillatory view [37] - **Main Logic**: The futures price rebounds. Geopolitical factors cause short - term fluctuations, while the fundamental support is limited. The demand is entering the off - season [37] - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [38] PP - **View**: Slight increase in maintenance, PP oscillates [38] - **Main Logic**: PDH profits are under pressure, and there is an expectation of increased maintenance. Geopolitical factors affect short - term fluctuations, and the supply pressure is high due to the off - season and high inventory [38] - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [39] PL - **View**: Supported by PDH maintenance expectations, PL oscillates [39] - **Main Logic**: PDH maintenance expectations boost the price. The enterprise shipment pressure is high, and the downstream purchases at low prices. The powder profit is under pressure, and the low start - up rate has a negative impact [39] - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [39] PVC - **View**: The market sentiment is positive, and the short - term futures price is strong [40] - **Main Logic**: Macro - level sentiment boosts, and micro - level supply - demand has marginal improvement, but the oversupply expectation cannot be reversed. The production may stabilize, downstream demand is weak seasonally, and the cost is expected to be weak [40] - **Outlook**: Although the supply has marginal improvement, the rebound space may be limited. The market may return to weakness if marginal enterprises resume production [40] Caustic Soda - **View**: Supported by low valuation, caustic soda rebounds at a low level [42] - **Main Logic**: Macro - level sentiment boosts, but short - term inventory reduction may not change the oversupply situation. The demand from alumina and non - aluminum industries has different trends, and the cost is relatively stable [42] - **Outlook**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and the price rebounds. However, the medium - term market may be under pressure if upstream production reduction is limited [42] Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Inter - Period Spreads - The report provides inter - period spread data for multiple varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in different time - period spreads [44] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil are presented, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and the quantity of warehouse receipts [45] Inter - Variety Spreads - Inter - variety spread data, including spreads between PP and methanol, PTA and EG, etc., are given, indicating the relative price relationships between different varieties [46] Group 5: Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of CITIC Futures commodities on December 24, 2025, are reported, showing the performance of different indices and their historical and recent fluctuations [287][288]
钢材淡季延续去库,基本?并??盾,钢?复产叠加冬储补库预期仍
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 00:34
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-25 现实预期博弈,盘⾯震荡运⾏ 2. 碳元素方面:焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象,且进入一月后钢厂有复 产预期,随着中下游冬储补库逐渐开启,焦炭供需结构或将逐渐变 紧,基本面对价格支撑仍在,盘面预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关 将近,冬储力度逐渐加大,且进入一月后进口压力将有所缓解,焦煤 基本面将延续边际改善,盘面估值仍拥有修复空间。 3. 合金方面:锰硅市场供需宽松格局难改,上游库存压力较大,锰 硅期价的上方空间预计有限,中期来看盘面仍将围绕成本估值附近低 位震荡运行。硅铁上游供应压力缓解,但终端需求淡季市场供需双 弱、盘面的上方空间仍不宜过度乐观,预计硅铁期价围绕成本估值附 近震荡运行为主。 4. 玻璃纯碱:玻璃供应仍有扰动预期,但中游下游库存中性偏高, 基本面来看当前供需仍旧过剩,若年底前无更多冷修,则高库存始终 压制价格,预计震荡偏弱,反之则价格上行。纯碱整体供需仍旧过 剩,预计短期以震荡为主,长期来看供给过剩格局进一步加剧,价格 中枢仍将下行,推动产能去化。 整体而言,淡季基本面亮点有限,但政策基调仍显积极,冬储 ...
商品情绪偏暖,钢矿触底回升
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 10:09
期货研究报告 姓名:涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3060359 投资咨询证号:Z0011688 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书,期 货投资咨询资格证书,本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度,独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪偏暖,钢矿触底回升 核心观点 螺纹钢:主力期价震荡运行,录得 0.06%日涨幅,量缩仓增。现阶段, 螺纹供应低位企稳,而需求同样弱稳,淡季基本面未见好转,钢价仍易 承压,相对利好的是成本支撑与政策预期,预计螺纹延续低位震荡运行 态势,关注钢厂生产情况。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 一 产业动态 热轧卷板:主力期价震荡运行,录得 0.09%日涨幅,量仓扩大。目前来 看,热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱,产业格局并未好转,库存高位 ...
黑色产业链日报-20251224
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 10:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are supported by cost at the bottom but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non-mainstream mines as the main source of growth, exerting significant supply pressure and capping price upside. However, iron ore also has upward drivers, and is expected to trade within a range with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the downside of the coking coal futures may be limited due to the relatively high basis. After the third round of coke price cuts, the cost of dry quenched coke warehouse receipts is about 1700 - 1720, and the driving force for coke valuation repair may weaken temporarily [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside potential. The demand for ferroalloys is gradually weakening as downstream hot metal production continues to decline. Ferroalloys may follow steel price movements, and while the upside is limited, the downside is also supported by cost [48] - With the increasing expectation of new soda ash production capacity, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and the futures price is breaking through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further as glass cold repairs accelerate. High inventories in the upstream and midstream restrict the price [65] - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to undergo cold repairs, which may affect far - month pricing and market expectations. The near - month 01 contract will follow the reality (delivery logic) and be mainly driven by warehouse receipt games, which may become clearer in late December. Currently, the high inventory in the glass midstream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [89] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3121, 3136, and 3173 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3287, 3285, and 3301 respectively [4] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3327, 3320, 3130, etc. respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3270, 3260, etc. respectively [8][10] - **Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were - 15 and 2 respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 37 and - 16 respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 52 and 14 respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 contract spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar were 166, 149, and 128 respectively [4][15] Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 798, 779.5, and 758 respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 contract bases were - 6.5, 11.5, and 33.5 respectively [22] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 787, 867, and 669 respectively [22] - **Fundamentals**: As of December 19, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 226.55, the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63, and the 247 - steel mill inventory was 8723.95 [25] Coal and Coke - **Futures Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 165, - 80, and - 85 respectively; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coke were 219, - 74.5, and - 144.5 respectively [34] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 [37] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 76, the 01 - 05 spread was - 80, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5330 [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 88, the 01 - 05 spread was - 70, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5570 [50] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 soda ash contracts were 1184, 1241, and 1117 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 57, 124, and - 67 respectively [66] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1300, 1400, etc. respectively; the light - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1250, 1350, etc. respectively [66] Glass - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 glass contracts were 1048, 1145, and 941 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 97, 204, and - 107 respectively [90] - **Spot Sales**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed different trends [91]