Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation is weak with hawkish monetary policies, tense geopolitical situations, and market trading of recession which drags down the non - ferrous sector. However, there is cost support in the industry. For nickel, the supply - demand relationship is tightening marginally due to factors such as supply disruptions and approaching peak demand season. For stainless steel, downstream demand is weak, and the supply may be relatively abundant in April [7][10]. - For nickel trading, wait for the trading logic to switch. Consider buying after the macro - sentiment stabilizes and use protective option strategies. For stainless steel trading, expect weak and volatile prices in the short - term and temporarily hold off on arbitrage [7][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Spread Tracking and Inventory 1.1 Spread Data - From March 16th to March 20th, the Shanghai - London ratio, spot import profit and loss, LME nickel premium/discount, and various nickel and stainless - steel spreads and premiums showed different changes. For example, the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.01 compared to the end of last month, and the spot import profit increased by 397 compared to the end of last week [11]. 1.2 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory - Global visible nickel inventory reached 374,000 tons and started to decline by 187 tons this week. Although domestic inventory increased by 959 tons, LME inventory decreased by 1,146 tons. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained stable, and the supply shortage situation was alleviated [18]. 1.3 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory - The social inventory of stainless steel is being depleted. However, if steel mills maintain high - level production and normal shipments while demand is weak, the supply may be relatively abundant in April [10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Pure Nickel 2.1.1 Production and Import - In January 2026, refined nickel production increased by 26% year - on - year to 37,700 tons, reaching a historical high. In February, it decreased by 5% month - on - month to about 35,800 tons due to the Spring Festival. In March, production is expected to return to normal and reach a new high. From January to February 2026, the net import of refined nickel was 32,900 tons, compared with a net export of 1,543 tons last year [27]. 2.1.2 Consumption - In 2025, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. From January to February 2026, it decreased by 8% year - on - year. The SMM survey showed that the PMI of nickel downstream industries fell below the 50 - point boom - bust line in February. Consumption is expected to rebound significantly in March [31]. 2.2 Stainless Steel 2.2.1 Raw Materials - Nickel Ore - The price of nickel ore from Indonesia and the Philippines has flattened. The price of high - nickel iron has declined, and domestic nickel - iron factories are cautious in raw material procurement. The supply of domestic nickel ore is tight, and the price is strong [33]. 2.2.2 Raw Materials - NPI - The price of NPI is under pressure. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia is increasing, and the inventory of NPI in China is at a certain level [35][36]. 2.2.3 Raw Materials - Chromium - The price of chromium - based products has increased. Zimbabwe imposed a 10% tax on the export of chromium - based products starting from January 1, 2026, causing the price of chromium ore to rebound. The long - term procurement price of high - carbon chromium iron by Tsingshan Group in April 2026 increased compared to March [48]. 2.2.4 Raw Materials - Steel Mill Profits - Steel mills are currently experiencing losses in immediate - term profits. The cost of cold - rolled stainless steel is relatively high, with the estimated cold - rolled cash cost at around 14,850 yuan/ton and the integrated cost at 14,350 yuan/ton [50]. 2.2.5 Supply - The production of stainless - steel crude steel in China and Indonesia in January - February 2026 was 7.026 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. The import of stainless steel decreased by 26% year - on - year, the export decreased by 35% year - on - year, and the net export decreased by 42% year - on - year [61]. 2.2.6 Demand - The shipbuilding industry is in a boom cycle and provides support for stainless - steel demand. Other terminal industries, especially the real - estate industry, have an unoptimistic growth rate [63]. 2.3 New Energy Vehicles 2.3.1 Vehicle Sales and Battery Production - In February 2026, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles decreased year - on - year. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 694,000 and 796,000 respectively, a year - on - year decline of 21.8% and 14.2%. The production of power cells from January to February increased by 33% year - on - year, mainly due to the significant increase in the battery capacity per vehicle [70]. 2.3.2 Global Market - In January 2026, global new - energy vehicle sales decreased by 6% year - on - year. European new - energy vehicle sales increased by 22.1% year - on - year, while US new - energy vehicle sales decreased by 25% year - on - year. From January to February 2026, China's new - energy vehicle exports increased by 108% year - on - year [78]. 2.3.3 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Supply and Demand - In 2026, the national subsidy favors mid - to - high - end new - energy vehicles, and the battery capacity per vehicle has increased significantly, which is beneficial to ternary materials and their raw materials. From January to February 2026, the production of sulfuric acid nickel, ternary precursors, and ternary cathode materials in China increased year - on - year [80]. 2.3.4 Intermediate Products - From January to February 2026, the production of MHP in Indonesia increased by 12% year - on - year to 79,000 metal tons, and the production of high - grade nickel matte increased by 87% year - on - year to 65,700 metal tons [83]. 2.4 Supply - Demand Outlook - The supply - demand situation may improve marginally in mid - to - late March [85].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is still at the bottom, but the downward trend is slowing; the steel consumption in the automotive manufacturing sector has declined for two consecutive months; the infrastructure sector is providing support [4][6][8][10] - The short - term increase in iron ore prices due to negotiation events is not sustainable, and the trend of oversupply remains unchanged [27] - From March to April, it is the verification period for terminal demand. The black - series prices may face downward pressure, and the coal - coke prices have some support at the bottom but are restricted by the oversupply issue [43] - The cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel demand and high inventory pressure limit their upward space [58] - The supply pressure of soda ash remains high, and the demand is currently stable but weak. The price increase space is limited, and the downward space depends on inventory accumulation [69] - The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit its price increase, while the demand needs to be verified [96] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Macro Data - The new construction area of real estate from January to February was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The single - month steel consumption from January to February was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years, but the downward trend is stabilizing [4] - The automobile production from January to February was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. The single - month steel consumption in January was 1.01577 million tons (automobile industry association's data), a month - on - month decrease of 11.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; in February, it was 881,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6% [6] - The infrastructure investment completion amount in February increased by 9.76% year - on - year. The steel consumption of railways and airports was 271,600 tons and 29,970 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 0% and 31.1% [8] Price Data - On March 20, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3183, 3123, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3312, 3297, and 3303 yuan/ton respectively [10] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and their basis data are provided, showing slight daily and weekly changes [14] - The roll - rebar spread and the spot spread between roll and rebar in different regions are presented, with some changes compared to the previous day [19] - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke for different contracts remained unchanged on March 20, 2026, compared to the previous day [23] Iron Ore Market Analysis - The current iron ore price has strengthened in the short term due to negotiation events, but the BHP's shipping gap to China may be strategic and not sustainable. The shipping volume has decreased due to weather, and the freight increase is limited. The iron ore supply and demand situation shows that the iron - water production will increase with复产, but the terminal demand is weak and the inventory is high, and the profit may be under pressure again after复产. The ports are accumulating inventory seasonally, but there is a prominent structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources. The valuation is at a high level, and the near - month contracts are in a positive - spread pattern. Overall, the event - driven price increase is not long - lasting, and the oversupply trend remains [27] Price and Fundamental Data - The closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 759, 815.5, and 781 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [28][30][31] - The basis data of different contracts and the prices of different iron ore varieties in Rizhao are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [30][31] - The fundamental data such as daily average iron - water production, 45 - port desilting volume, five - major steel apparent demand, global shipping volume, Australia - Brazil shipping volume, 45 - port arrival volume, 45 - port inventory, and 247 - steel mill inventory are presented, with corresponding week - on - week and month - on - month changes [39] Coal - Coke Market Analysis - From March to April, it is the verification period for terminal demand. The uncertainty in the Middle - East shipping route may suppress China's short - term steel exports. In the context of weakening steel export demand, the overall black - series prices may face significant downward pressure. The coal - coke prices have some support at the bottom due to the increase in overseas energy prices, but the oversupply issue will restrict their price elasticity, so one should not be overly optimistic [43] Price Data - The coal - coke futures price differences between different contracts, the coking profit on the disk, and the ratios of main contracts are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [44] - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke in different regions, as well as the import and export profits and price ratios, are presented, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [45][47] Ferroalloys Market Analysis - In the short term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel terminal demand and high inventory pressure of plates limit their upward space [58] Price Data - The basis, price differences between different contracts, and spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [59][61] - The prices of raw materials such as semi - coke, steam coal, and manganese ore, as well as the warehouse receipt data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, are presented, with corresponding changes [61] Soda Ash Market Analysis - The daily production of soda ash is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists. The rigid demand is currently stable but weak, and there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. The inventory performance is better than expected. If the disk price rises, there is some replenishment space for middle - stream players such as those in the spot - futures market, but the price increase space is limited due to the limited demand elasticity. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open up. In the medium - to - long - term, the high - supply expectation remains unchanged, waiting for the further accumulation of industrial contradictions. In addition to the fundamentals, other sectors or macro factors may also have an impact [69] Price Data - The closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 1202, 1274, and 1322 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily changes and percentage changes. The price differences between different contracts and the basis data are also provided [73] - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and the price differences between them are presented, with no significant daily changes [73] Glass Market Analysis - The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. However, the high intermediate inventory has always been a risk concern in the market, as once a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be significant, and the downstream may not be able to absorb the supply. There are continuous news about ignition and cold - repair, and there are many new lines waiting to be ignited in Shahe. The supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit the price increase of glass, and the demand needs to be verified. The cost of petroleum coke has increased. In addition to the fundamentals, macro and sentiment factors may also have an impact [96] Price and Sales Data - The closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 1054, 1181, and 1247 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily changes and percentage changes. The price differences between different contracts and the basis data in different regions are also provided [97] - The daily sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions are presented for several days [99]

Report Title - The report is titled "Rebar: Awaiting the Release of Demand" [1] Report Date - The report was published on March 20, 2026 [1] Price Movement - Since late February, rebar futures and spot prices have rebounded from their lows. The main contract reached a maximum of 3,167 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 5.4%. During the same period, spot prices in mainstream regions recorded increases ranging from 20 to 80 yuan/ton [2] Core Views - The core support for the recent increase in steel prices lies in the raw material side. Recent positive factors have driven up the prices of iron ore and coking coal, which in turn have led to the rebound of steel prices from their lows. However, the supply-demand pattern of raw materials has not changed substantially, and the current strong trend is mainly due to non-industrial factors. Once these factors fade, the raw material prices will be under pressure, and the cost support for steel will weaken [3] - Rebar demand has improved marginally, which has also contributed to the increase in steel prices. After the Spring Festival, the demand for construction steel has gradually recovered, and high-frequency demand indicators have rebounded from their lows. As of the week of March 13, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 1.7681 million tons, up for three consecutive weeks after the Spring Festival and slightly higher than the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 4.86%. The daily high-frequency transactions have also rebounded from their lows, with the average daily trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders in March reaching 79,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 127% [3] - The improvement in rebar demand is mainly due to the good performance of downstream industries. Policy support has led to an increase in fixed asset investment, especially in infrastructure investment. In January-February, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 11.4% year-on-year. In addition, the drag from the real estate sector has weakened, although the real estate investment still declined by 11% in January-February, the decline has narrowed significantly compared to the 17.2% decline in the whole year of 2025 [4] - The supply pressure of rebar has increased. The production of rebar has increased, and the inventory is at a high level. As of the week of March 13, the weekly production of rebar reached 1.953 million tons, up for two consecutive weeks and reaching a relatively high level this year. The increase in production mainly comes from the resumption of production by short-process steel mills. The current profitability of steel mills is good, and the production is expected to remain at a high level. In addition, the long-process steel mills are about to resume production, so there is still room for the production of rebar to increase [5] - The inventory of rebar has also increased significantly. The latest inventory is 8.9417 million tons, an increase of 465,200 tons compared to the same period last year. The inventory is mainly concentrated in core consumption areas, mainly due to the active futures-spot arbitrage trading. The current billet inventory is also significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the overall inventory de-stocking pressure is relatively large, which puts some pressure on steel prices [6] - Overall, the positive factors are gradually fermenting, the raw material side is strong, and the demand has improved marginally, which together support the rebar price to rebound from its low. However, the current production of rebar is at a high level and the inventory is high, so the supply-side pressure still exists. It is expected that rebar will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and whether it can break the pattern still depends on the further release of peak-season demand [6]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-03-20 多晶硅跌破成本位，地缘因素加剧价格波动 工业硅： 市场分析 成本端：近日石油焦及新疆电价有所上涨，成本端支撑稳固。 策略 工业硅价格预计将维持区间震荡，目前供应端自春节以来明显收缩后有逐渐释放预期。需求端多晶硅方面依旧萎 靡。中长期来看价格支撑明显。整体格局维持供需双弱，关注大厂复工计划及资金情绪变化。上行高度取决于下 游需求恢复和库存去化进度，下行空间则受成本支撑和减产预期限制。 单边：短期区间操作 跨期：无 2026-03-19，工业硅期货价格震荡下跌，主力合约2605开于8420元/吨，最后收于8285元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-150） 元/吨，变化（-1.78）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓253549手，2026-03-18仓单总数为21669手，较前一日变化 -307手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9000-9200（-100）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9700 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8500-8600（-50）元/吨，99硅价格在8500-8600（-50）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、 天 ...

Summary of Agricultural Chemicals Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The agricultural chemicals industry has entered a cyclical recovery phase after 3-4 years of downturn, with manufacturers showing a strong reluctance to sell due to rising oil prices that bolster cost support and translate to demand [1][2] - Overall inventory across the supply chain is at historical lows, with safety stock at approximately 20%, and overseas inventory significantly lower than in 2023-2024, indicating a strong need for replenishment despite high prices [1][2] Key Price Movements - Glyphosate prices increased by 9.59% to 27,000 CNY/ton, with a target price of 30,000 CNY/ton set by companies; new capacity in 2026 is expected to be only 50,000 tons, maintaining a favorable supply-demand balance [1][9] - Mancozeb prices surged by 7.4% to 30,000 CNY/ton, driven by supply disruptions from Dow Chemical and UPL's production halt in India [1][12] - Chlorantraniliprole prices rose from 190,000 CNY to 230,000-250,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 20%-30% increase due to regulatory hurdles and shutdowns of illegal capacities [1][16] Market Dynamics - The agricultural chemicals market is significantly influenced by rising oil prices, which increase production costs and subsequently elevate agricultural product prices, enhancing planting intentions and catalyzing demand for agricultural chemicals [2] - The market sentiment is cautious, with many manufacturers choosing to halt quotations and distributors reluctant to sell existing stock, anticipating further price increases [2] Competitive Landscape - Chinese agricultural chemicals have a competitive edge over Indian products due to supply chain advantages and lower production costs, despite India having some strengths in pyrethroid products [7][8] - The South American market presents opportunities for Chinese companies as multinational firms lose market share due to high prices and local purchasing habits favoring cost-effective products [8] Inventory and Order Status - Domestic and overseas inventories are low, with overseas multinational companies also reluctant to stockpile, indicating that any price spikes due to unexpected events will not deter replenishment needs [4][5] - During the recent trade fair, actual order volumes were low, but there was a high level of intent orders, particularly from South American clients, despite reduced participation due to geopolitical tensions [5] Product Substitution and Pricing Strategies - Clear substitution relationships exist among various agricultural chemicals, necessitating careful monitoring of competitors' pricing strategies [6] - Leading companies are currently cautious in their pricing strategies, assessing market conditions before making adjustments [6] Future Outlook - The glyphosate market is expected to maintain upward price momentum if demand remains stable, with companies optimistic about future price trends [10] - The mancozeb market is also viewed positively, with significant price increases anticipated due to supply constraints and shifting consumer preferences towards traditional fungicides [12][13] - Chlorantraniliprole's price outlook remains strong due to supply chain challenges and regulatory issues affecting production [15][16] Conclusion - The agricultural chemicals industry is poised for a recovery phase, driven by low inventory levels, rising prices, and favorable supply-demand dynamics. Chinese companies are well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities in both domestic and international markets, particularly in South America, while navigating competitive pressures from Indian producers.

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: March 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is in a weak and pressured situation with significant supply - side pressure, weak demand, and high inventory. Although cost - side support from geopolitical factors exists, the market still faces downward pressure in the long - term. Short - term fluctuations may increase, and the market needs real capacity clearance on the supply side to break the deadlock [8]. - The glass market has a situation where prices are caught between high inventory and potential production capacity release on the upside, and cold - repair expectations on the downside. The core contradiction is the inventory accumulation. In the long - term, the improvement of the supply - demand structure and the opening of the upward price channel depend on the continuous change of commercial housing sales data. There is a short - term possibility of a rebound, but the upward space is limited [9][10]. Summary by Directory I. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **March 19 Market Data**: The main soda ash futures SA605 continued to decline. The closing price was 1,217 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton or 0.73%, with a daily reduction of 18,903 lots in positions [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has significant pressure due to new capacity release and high operating rates, resulting in a loose supply. The demand side is weak, especially in the real estate and photovoltaic sectors. The inventory is at a historically high level and the de - stocking process is blocked. Geopolitical factors support the cost side, partially offsetting the downward pressure [8]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuations may increase. If it can effectively stand above the 1,200 - yuan mark, there may be upward space. In the long - term, due to the weak supply - demand pattern, there is downward price pressure. The market needs capacity clearance on the supply side [8]. Glass - **Fundamentals**: The glass price is in a situation where it is difficult to go up or down. High inventory and potential production capacity release suppress the price, while the cold - repair expectation of some production lines provides support. However, the current cold - repair of individual production lines has not had a substantial impact on the supply side, and inventory accumulation remains the core problem restricting the upward price movement [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Although the market is in the traditional off - season, the trading sentiment has improved. There is a short - term possibility of a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long - term, the opening of the upward price channel depends on the continuous change of commercial housing sales data [10]. II. Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][17][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the deterioration of the Middle - East situation, the energy and chemical sector has collectively soared. The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of strong fluctuations and upward - moving center of gravity driven by cost support and substantial supply contraction [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The Middle - East situation has worsened, with Iran attacking multiple countries' energy facilities. Brent oil has exceeded $106. The energy and chemical sector has collectively soared, and polyolefins have gapped higher with a gain of over 4%. For example, L2605 closed at 8,916 yuan/ton, up 383 yuan/ton (4.49%), and PP2605 closed at 9,158 yuan/ton, up 428 yuan (4.90%). The US - Iran conflict is in a stalemate, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and the energy supply chain is under pressure. Short - term oil prices are highly volatile, and upstream enterprises are reducing production. Supply will contract more than expected during the regular maintenance period from March to April. Downstream开工 has increased month - on - month, but the price transmission of downstream products is limited, squeezing profits and leading to a slowdown in raw material procurement [6] 3.2 Industry News - On March 19, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 850,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 1.73%. The inventory in the same period last year was 800,000 tons. PE market prices mostly rose, and PP market prices generally increased. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 8,020 - 8,070 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous working day [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase or decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][13][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, the demand rose, the cost support increased during the dry - season, and it is expected to fluctuate in the 8290 - 8460 range [3][6] - For polysilicon, the supply production is continuously increasing, the demand shows some recovery but may be weak later, the cost support is stable, and it is expected to fluctuate in the 39200 - 41010 range [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 78,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.33% [6] - Demand: Last week, the demand was 68,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.62% [6] - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory was 357,000 tons, at a high level; organic silicon inventory was 58,500 tons, at a low level; alloy ingot inventory was 58,000 tons, at a high level; social inventory was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18%; sample enterprise inventory was 197,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%; main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.74% [6] - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9769.7 yuan/ton, remaining the same month - on - month [6] - Basis: On March 18, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 825 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6] - Disk: MA20 was flat, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [6] - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [6] 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the output was 19,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%, and the planned production in March was 84,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.25% [8] - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11.98GW, a month - on - month increase of 8.12%, and the inventory was 283,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; the battery cell output in February was 37.09GW, a month - on - month decrease of 10.49%, and the external sales factory inventory last week was 5.82GW, a month - on - month decrease of 16.61%; the component output in February was 29.3GW, a month - on - month decrease of 16.76%, and the planned output in March was 41.39GW, a month - on - month increase of 41.26% [8] - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon was 40,720 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 2280 yuan/ton [8] - Basis: On March 18, the price of N - type dense material was 43,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5395 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8] - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 357,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.58%, at a high level in the same period of history [8] - Disk: MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [8] - Main Position: The main position was net long, and the long position increased [8] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Market Overview - Futures closing prices of various contracts showed different degrees of decline compared with the previous values [14] - Spot prices of different types of industrial silicon remained unchanged [14] - Inventory data of different regions and types showed different trends, such as a decrease in social inventory and an increase in sample enterprise inventory [14] 3.3 Polysilicon Market Overview - Futures closing prices of various contracts showed different degrees of decline compared with the previous values [15] - Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, and some remained unchanged [15] - Inventory and production data of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also showed different trends [15] 3.4 Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the spread between 421 and 553 in East China [17][18] 3.5 Industrial Silicon Inventory - The report shows the historical trends of inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and SMM sample enterprises [20][21][22] 3.6 Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The report shows the historical trends of weekly production of SMM sample enterprises, monthly production by specification, and the opening rate of sample enterprises [24][25][26] 3.7 Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends - The report shows the historical trends of electricity prices in main production areas, silicon stone prices in main production areas, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices [30][31] 3.8 Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The report shows the historical cost trends of 421/553 in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [32][33][34] 3.9 Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the historical trends of weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [36][37] 3.10 Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance data of industrial silicon from 2025 to 2026 [39][40] 3.11 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - **DMC Price and Production Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of DMC daily capacity utilization, profit - cost, weekly output, and price [42][43] - **Downstream Price Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of prices of 107 glue, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [44][45][46][47] - **Import - Export and Inventory Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of DMC monthly import - export volume and inventory [49][50][51] 3.12 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply Situation**: The report shows the historical trends of waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit [52][53] - **Inventory and Production Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly opening rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and aluminum alloy ingot social inventory [55][56] - **Demand (Automobiles and Wheels)**: The report shows the historical trends of monthly automobile production, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel export [57][58][59] 3.13 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - **Fundamental Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly output, monthly opening rate, and monthly demand [61][62] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance data of polysilicon from 2024 to 2025 [64][65] - **Silicon Wafer Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of silicon wafer price, weekly output, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export of single - crystal and poly - crystal silicon wafers [67][68] - **Battery Cell Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of single - crystal P/N type battery cell price, battery cell production scheduling and actual output, photovoltaic battery external sales factory weekly inventory, photovoltaic battery opening rate, and battery cell export [70][71] - **Photovoltaic Component Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of component price, domestic and European photovoltaic component inventory, monthly component output, and component export [73][74] - **Photovoltaic Accessory Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import - export volume, photovoltaic glass monthly output, export volume, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export volume [76][77] - **Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm)**: The report shows the historical trends of silicon material cost, silicon wafer profit - cost, battery cell profit - cost, and component profit - cost of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [79] - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of national new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation [80][81]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment rating information provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views Polyolefins - The current market is in a fierce game between strong cost support, supply contraction expectations, and weak actual demand. It is expected that prices will maintain a wide - range high - level shock. If the geopolitical tension continues, under the combination of "domestic production cuts, reduced imports, and increased exports", and the conflict tends to be long - term, the domestic start - up rate may decline further after April, and the 05 contract is expected to have a significant upward market [1]. Rubber - The Sino - US conflict remains stalemate, and the crude oil price fluctuates at a high level. In the short term, the crude oil trend still dominates the market risk sentiment. The natural rubber fundamentals have both long and short factors, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16,000 - 17,500, with strong cost support at the lower end. Be vigilant about the market trading the reduction of Middle - East tire demand again at the upper end of the price range [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. In the short term, multiple production lines are planned for maintenance. In the medium - to - long term, there is still some room below the current price. It is expected that the futures will be in a shock - adjustment pattern, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, and pay attention to inventory and production line changes. - Glass: The current supply - side daily melting volume is already low, and the real - estate data shows that the real - estate is still in the adjustment period, and the demand - side recovery is slow. The overall fundamentals have weak supply and demand. It is advisable to view it with a shock outlook. The strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150. Pay attention to inventory and downstream demand [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Although the fundamentals have marginally improved, the overall pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged. Recently, the Middle - East situation has slightly eased, and after the emotional tide recedes, the futures price has declined. - PVC: In the short term, the supply - demand situation has slightly changed. Affected by the expected increase in ethylene supply tension, the production load of ethylene - based production enterprises may be reduced in the long term, while the calcium - carbide - based production load has slightly increased. The cost increase drives the bottom of the PVC price to rise. The domestic demand is normal, and foreign trade exports are waiting for new quotes due to unstable freight and other risks [4]. Urea - The current urea fundamentals have not improved significantly. In the short term, urea prices are mainly subject to fluctuations driven by energy costs. Recently, the tense situation of high oil prices has slightly eased. Under the background of domestic price - stabilizing policies, urea may experience a shock - decline in the short term [5]. Ester Industry Chain - PX: In the short term, the supply and demand of PX are both weak, and the overall supply - demand is marginally weakening. The current benchmark price still dominates the chemical trend. Pay attention to the downstream negative feedback. It is expected that the absolute price of PX will fluctuate with the oil price in the short term. - PTA: In the short term, PTA's own driving force is limited, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. - Ethylene glycol: In March, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has significantly declined, and the arrival volume of foreign ships will be at a low level. The polyester load is seasonally rising, and the de - stocking amplitude is expected to expand in March - April. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price still has the momentum to rise. - Short - fiber: In the short term, the short - fiber's own driving force is limited, and it mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. - Bottle chips: The supply of domestic bottle chips is gradually increasing in March. Under the influence of macro and crude oil stimulation and the peak procurement season of PET, the downstream procurement of bottle chips is expected to follow up, and the supply - demand of bottle chips is expected to be tight [6]. Crude Oil - In the short term, the oil price maintains a pattern of "policy suppression + geopolitical support", and Brent maintains a range - bound fluctuation. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade lasts for more than a month, the supply will change from inventory depletion to a substantial shortage, and the oil price may still have strong upward momentum [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply of pure benzene is expected to decline, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. In the short term, pure benzene may follow the oil - price fluctuations. - Styrene: In March, the supply of styrene remains high, and the supply - demand is expected to slightly de - stock. In the short term, the absolute price of styrene follows the oil - price fluctuations [10]. Methanol - At present, the price is dominated by supply - interruption expectations and risk sentiment. The subsequent trend highly depends on the actual progress of the geopolitical conflict [11]. LPG - No overall core view provided for LPG in the report Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices**: Futures prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all declined on March 18 compared with the previous day, with declines ranging from 0.28% to 0.77%. Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also decreased, with declines of 0.58% and 0.61% respectively [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.23% to 56.83 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 6.58% to 61.93 million tons. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 9.34% to 59.62 million tons, and trader inventory decreased by 6.04% to 19.36 million tons [1]. - **开工率**: PE device start - up rate decreased by 5.20% to 82.39%, and downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 18.20% to 33.83%. PP device start - up rate decreased by 5.95% to 69.98%, and downstream weighted start - up rate of PP powder increased by 14.53% to 31.35 [1]. Rubber - **Prices**: Spot prices of Yunnan Guofu hand - made rubber and Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 2.99% and 1.92% respectively on March 18 compared with the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 200.00% [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: In January, Thailand's rubber production increased by 11.09% to 549,000 tons, Indonesia's production decreased by 14.90% to 161,100 tons, and India's production decreased by 3.48% to 108,100 tons. The bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.42% to 677,569 tons, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 2.20% to 49,291 tons [2]. - **开工率**: The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased by 3.68% and 4.32% respectively to 77.71% and 70.22% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: Glass prices in North - China, East - China, and Central - China remained unchanged on March 18. Soda ash prices in North - China, East - China, Central - China, and Northwest - China also remained unchanged [3]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash start - up rate increased by 0.27% to 87.00%, and weekly output increased slightly. Float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.08% to 146,900 tons, and photovoltaic glass daily melting volume increased by 1.82% to 89,360 tons. Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 4.76% to 75,849,000 weight - cases, and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.6% to 193,170 tons [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: On March 18, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda increased by 0.8%. The price of East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.9%, and the price of East - China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the caustic - soda industry decreased by 1.3% to 85.3%, and the total start - up rate of PVC increased by 0.3% to 81.4%. The start - up rates of downstream industries such as printing and dyeing increased to varying degrees [4]. - **Inventory**: Caustic - soda factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.6% to 53,000 tons, and PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory both decreased by 17.7% to 37,700 tons [4]. Urea - **Prices**: On March 18, the futures price of urea decreased, and the spot price continued to decline weakly. The prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and other regions decreased slightly [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of domestic urea decreased by 1.36% to 218,200 tons, and the start - up rate of urea production enterprises decreased by 1.36% to 92.68%. The agricultural demand for return - green fertilizer has ended, and the industrial demand is flat [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 15.53% to 808,900 tons, and port inventory remained unchanged at 189,000 tons [5]. Ester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On March 18, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY decreased to varying degrees. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG also showed different trends [6]. - **开工率**: The start - up rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, and MEG all decreased to varying degrees, while the start - up rates of polyester comprehensive, direct - spinning filament, and polyester bottle chips increased [6]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: On March 18, Brent crude oil increased by 3.83% to $107.38 per barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 0.11% to $96.32 per barrel, and SC crude oil increased by 0.90% to 751.20 yuan per barrel [8]. - **价差**: The spreads between Brent M1 - M3, SC M1 - M3, and Brent - WTI all changed compared with the previous day [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: On March 18, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of CFR China pure benzene, pure - benzene East - China spot, and benzene - ethylene East - China spot decreased [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.6% to 288,000 tons, and the inventory of benzene - ethylene in Jiangsu ports increased by 3.8% to 162,500 tons [10]. - **开工率**: The start - up rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and benzene - ethylene all decreased to varying degrees [10]. Methanol - **Prices**: On March 18, the closing price of MA2605 increased by 2.28% to 2912 yuan per ton, and the closing price of MA2609 increased by 1.19% to 2719 yuan per ton [11]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 7.32% to 484,900 tons, and port inventory decreased by 3.89% to 1,262,000 tons [11]. - **开工率**: The start - up rate of domestic methanol enterprises increased slightly by 0.07% to 76.27%, and the start - up rate of overseas enterprises decreased by 9.58% to 47.2% [11]. LPG - **Prices**: On March 18, the prices of PG2604 and PG2605 decreased by 1.42% and 1.15% respectively. The price of South - China spot (civil gas) remained unchanged, and the price of deliverable spot increased by 1.81% [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased by 10.50% to 24.9%, and port inventory decreased by 1.52% to 227,000 tons [12]. - **开工率**: The start - up rate of upstream main - refineries decreased by 1.76% to 81.35%, and the start - up rate of downstream PDH decreased by 2.62% to 63.2% [12].

供应方面,云南及江西地区冶炼厂加工费月环比上涨2000元/吨,12月进口锡精矿实物量 17637吨,折金属5191.6吨,环比增长13.3%,同比增长40.2%;截至3月17日,从印尼交易 所已出口2085吨锡锭,预计后期印尼出口水平或将稳定。需求方面,下游采购偏谨慎,下 游企业将逐步开始复产复工,但订单情况较为平淡,下游电子、光伏等行业当前终端消费 表现不及预期，企业规模性补库意愿不强。综上所述，中东局势持续胶着，同时美联储释 放鹰派信号令年内降息预期大幅缩水,预计短期锡价偏弱震荡,关注锡价35万元一线表 现;对锡价中长期看涨逻辑依旧存在,短期调整或提供长线多单布局机会 锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年3月19日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 现货价格及基差 品种 现值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 前值 SMM 1#锡 369500 -10850 -2.85% 380350 SMM 1#锡升贴水 1650 1900 -250 -13.16% 元/吨 长江 1#锡 370000 380850 -10850 -2.85% LME 0-3升贴水 -203.00 -91.00 -1 ...