2025 年 09 月 15 日 【现货消息】 短纤：短纤期货偏弱震荡，现货方面工厂报价维稳为主，成交按单商谈。期现及贸易商价格下调。今 日直纺涤短销售一般，截止下午 3:00 附近，平均产销 51%，部分工厂产销：20%、40%、30%、30%、90%、 50%、80%、50%、50%。 瓶片：上游原料期货下跌，聚酯瓶片工厂报价多下调 20-50 元不等。日内聚酯瓶片市场低位成交尚可， 个别大厂成交放量。9-11 月订单多成交在 5780-5900 元/吨出厂不等，略低 5750-5770 元/吨出厂，略高 5910 元/吨出厂附近，品牌不同价格略有差异。 （资料来源：华瑞信息） 短纤：成本支撑弱，震荡观察 瓶片：成本支撑弱，震荡观察 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly and approach the cost line, with support around 2,800 - 2,900 yuan/ton, due to supply - side复产, increased imports, and lack of short - term domestic demand growth, although potential risks at the Guinea mine end may provide a price safety cushion [16][147][151]. - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly. The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation provides macro - level support, and the strengthening of the peak - season fundamentals, along with inventory de - stocking, will drive up the price. Existing long positions can be held [16][147][151]. - Casting aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. The rise in aluminum prices drives up alloy prices, and the increase in raw material costs and the improvement in demand from the automotive market support the price, despite high inventory levels [18][148][152]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Macro and Important Information**: In August, the US CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Aluminum will be classified as both "critical minerals" and "growth minerals" in the UK's upcoming strategy. Qinghai Baihe Aluminum plans a 500,000 - ton capacity upgrade project [8][9]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 12, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,077.47 yuan/ton, down 68.84 yuan/ton from September 5. The average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Color Market was 21,020 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from September 5 [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 11, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 82.78%, up 1.23% from the previous week. China's electrolytic aluminum production in August 2025 was 3.7326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. The operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity in August reached 96.1%. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.1%, up 0.4% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in August was 53.3%, up 9.2% from July [12]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 11, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,902 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit narrowed to about 180 yuan/ton. The smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,437 yuan/ton, down about 180 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit expanded to about 4,400 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the aluminum ingot inventory was 625,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from September 4, and the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, down 7,500 tons from September 4. As of September 12, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 72,469 tons, up 12,508 tons from September 5. From September 4 - 10, LME aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons to 48,527 tons [13]. - **Market Trends**: This week, alumina fluctuated downwards, Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated upwards [16]. 3.2 Alumina Fundamental Analysis - **Spot**: The domestic alumina spot price continued to fall this week, and the spot premium narrowed to about 150 yuan/ton [30]. - **Supply**: As of September 11, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 82.78%, up 1.23% from the previous week. In August 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased month - on - month and year - on - year [34]. - **Imports and Exports**: On September 11, the FOB price of alumina in Western Australia was 338 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton from September 5. The alumina import window opened, increasing domestic supply pressure [35]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 11, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,902 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit narrowed to about 180 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the alumina port inventory was 55,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from the previous week, at a near - 4 - year low. In July, China's alumina export volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [42]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Cost**: As of September 12, coal prices in major regions fluctuated. The single - degree electricity price in Yunnan in September slightly decreased to about 0.382 yuan/degree. The price of pre - baked anodes in major production areas remained stable this week [50][54]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 11, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,437 yuan/ton, down about 180 yuan/ton from September 4, and the average industry profit expanded to about 4,400 yuan/ton [56]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. The operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity in August reached 96.1%, the highest in the same period in the past four years [58]. - **Spot**: As of September 12, the average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Color Market was 21,020 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from September 5 [61]. - **Price Trend and Premium**: This week, the Shanghai Aluminum main contract fluctuated strongly, the spot price in the spot market rose, and the spot was at a discount. LME aluminum fluctuated strongly this week, and the spot was at a premium [67]. - **Demand**: As of September 11, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.1%, up 0.4% from the previous week. In August, the aluminum processing industry PMI reached 53.3%, rising above the boom - bust line [68]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,000 tons from September 4, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 7,500 tons from September 4. As of September 12, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 12,508 tons from September 5. From September 4 - 10, LME aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons to 48,527 tons [71][76]. - **Imports and Exports**: The aluminum ingot import profit window closed. In August 2025, China exported 534,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, and the cumulative export from January to August was 3.996 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2% [80][83]. - **End - Use Markets**: The real estate market is slowly recovering, and the performance of new energy vehicles is relatively bright. From September 1 - 7, the national new energy vehicle retail sales were 181,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 7.752 million units, a year - on - year increase of 25% [92]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - **Raw Materials**: The supply and price of scrap aluminum are important factors affecting the cost of aluminum alloys. The price of scrap aluminum has been rising, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum has changed [100][105]. - **ADC12**: The cost and profit of ADC12 are affected by raw material prices. The spot price of ADC12 has changed, and the overseas price and import profit also show certain trends. The production volume of ADC12 and the import and export volume of aluminum alloys have their own characteristics [111][114][122]. - **Demand**: The automotive industry is the main demand end for casting aluminum alloys. The demand for casting aluminum alloys has seasonal characteristics, and the new order index has increased since August [126][134]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum alloys includes social inventory and factory - level inventory, and the current inventory level is relatively high [137].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost - end demand expectation is poor, the medium - and long - term operating center is declining, the cost support is loosening, and the demand at the initial stage of recovery is insufficient to support raw materials, so the market is oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the actual improvement of consumption in September [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Plastic Futures**: The opening prices of plastic 2601, 2605, and 2509 were 7222, 7235, and 7142 yuan/ton respectively, with closing prices of 7209, 7220, and 7145 yuan/ton, and price drops of - 0.33%, - 0.32%, and - 0.28% respectively. The trading volume of plastic 2601 was 218,000 lots, and the positions increased by 16,282 lots to 533,469 lots [5][6]. - **PP Futures**: The opening prices of PP2601, 2605, and 2509 were 6952, 6977, and 6773 yuan/ton respectively, with closing prices of 6939, 6961, and 6805 yuan/ton, and price drops of - 0.17%, - 0.17%, and - 0.40% respectively. The positions of PP2601 increased by 9293 lots to 624,200 lots [5][6]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: For PP, the impact of maintenance is weakening, new production capacity is continuously released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The downstream is in the transition stage between peak and off - peak seasons, and the overall recovery trend is not good. For PE, the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, the short - term maintenance loss is increasing, the new supply is slow, and the downstream agricultural film is expected to drive social inventory reduction [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On September 11, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 655,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 2.96%. The inventory in the same period last year was 790,000 tons [7]. - **PE Market**: The PE market prices were partially weakly adjusted. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7120 - 7450, 7200 - 7650, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6680 - 6720 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The downstream product cost pressure increased, the market trading atmosphere was average [7]. - **PP Market**: The PP market continued to be weakly adjusted. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China were 6700 - 6870, 6720 - 6940, and 6700 - 6930 yuan/ton respectively [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presented figures on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][15][16]

Core Viewpoint - PTA futures have stabilized after dropping to the lower end of the fluctuation range at 4650 yuan/ton, with strong support expected for a rebound due to low valuation and tight supply-demand balance [1] Group 1: Raw Material Support - Despite pessimistic market expectations for the future supply-demand pattern of crude oil, international oil prices remain supported around 65 USD/barrel [2] - OPEC+ decided to slightly increase production while emphasizing a cautious and flexible approach to manage voluntary production cuts, which has calmed the market [2] - There has been no significant inventory accumulation in the crude oil market since July, indicating that supply surplus has not been confirmed [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Balance - PTA operating rates are maintained at low levels, with current processing fees below 200 yuan/ton, leading to potential losses for some advanced PTA facilities [3] - The demand for textiles and apparel is expected to rise in September and October, but overall consumer demand remains weak, limiting brand replenishment intentions [3] - Polyester average operating rates as of September 4 are at 91%, with filament factories at 86.7%, short fiber factories at 93.9%, and bottle chip factories at 72.9% [3] - The profit margins in the polyester segment have improved, and inventory pressure is expected to be manageable during the peak season, allowing for sustained high operating rates [3] - Overall, the combination of low PTA valuation, short-term crude oil price support, and a tight supply-demand balance suggests strong support around 4700 yuan/ton, with PTA likely to stabilize and rebound in the short term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish Continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously Bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish Consolidation [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish Consolidation [3] 2. Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical factors slightly boost oil prices, but supply surplus remains the core driver, and oil prices are trending downward. [1][5][6] - LPG: The cost side is weak, and there is pressure on the upside of liquefied gas. [1][9] - L: Social inventory is slightly decreasing, and it is in a bearish consolidation phase. [1][15] - PP: Spot prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and it is in a bearish consolidation phase. [1][20] - PVC: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and it is in a weak bottom - grinding phase. [1][25] - PX: The expectation of tight supply - demand balance is loosening, and the support from crude oil is weakening, with a cautious bearish view. [1][30] - PTA: The cost support is weakening while the supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a cautious bearish view. [2][33] - Ethylene Glycol: The cost support is weakening while the supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a cautious bearish view. [2][37] - Methanol: Supply - demand is loose, and there is port inventory accumulation. Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on the 01 contract at low prices. [2][41] - Urea: The fundamentals remain weak, and the Indian tender price is lower than expected. Hold short positions cautiously. [2][44] - Asphalt: High valuation and a weak cost side, maintaining a bearish view. [3] - Glass: In some regions, the sales of original sheets have improved, and spot prices have increased, but terminal demand is insufficient, in a bearish consolidation phase. [3] - Soda Ash: The spot price in Shahe has decreased, and the basis has weakened. It is in a bearish consolidation phase. [3] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded and adjusted. WTI decreased by 0.32%, Brent increased by 0.56%, and SC increased by 1.51%. [5] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors slightly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ plans to increase production in October, and the end of the US crude oil consumption season has led to a decrease in demand - side support. [6][7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [470 - 490] for SC. [8] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 9, the PG main contract closed at 4413 yuan/ton, up 0.55% month - on - month. [11] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of liquefied gas itself is not significant, and its price is mainly pegged to the cost - side oil price. The cost side still has room to decline. [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG. [13] L - **Market Review**: The L01 contract closed at 7251 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. [16] - **Basic Logic**: North China's spot prices have slightly increased, and the basis has strengthened. Social inventory is slightly decreasing, and the demand side is strengthening. [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support at the integer - level mark and try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7200 - 7300] for L. [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP01 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. [21] - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices are flat, and the market is fluctuating narrowly. Supply is expected to decrease this week, while demand is increasing. [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low prices. Focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] for PP. [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V01 contract closed at 4847 yuan/ton, down 0.9%. [26] - **Basic Logic**: The market is in a contango structure, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. Supply is strong, and demand is weak. [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing short positions due to low - valuation support. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] for PVC. [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PX spot price was 6781 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan/ton. [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing their loads, while demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and the supply - demand tight balance is expected to loosen. [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6700 - 6810] for PX511. [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PTA spot price in East China was 4585 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. [34] - **Basic Logic**: Recent device maintenance has led to a significant decline in operating loads. Future new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply - side pressure. Demand is showing signs of recovery. [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to the opportunity to expand PTA processing fees. Focus on the range of [4660 - 4710] for TA01. [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 5, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4488 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. [38] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are slightly increasing their loads, and overseas devices have little change. Demand is improving, but the cost side is weak. [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to go short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4290 - 4340] for EG01. [40] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 5, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2310 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton. [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is weakening. [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2370 - 2400] for MA01. [43] Urea - **Market Review**: The URO1 contract closed at 1713 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton. [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. The Indian tender price is lower than expected. [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Urea fluctuates within a range. Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on the 01 contract at high prices. [44] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: High valuation and a weak cost side, with an overall bearish view. [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. [3] Glass - **Basic Logic**: In some regions, the sales of original sheets have improved, but terminal demand is insufficient. Supply is under pressure. [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see as the market fluctuates at a low level. [3] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in Shahe has decreased, and the basis has weakened. Supply - demand remains loose. [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short on rebounds as the supply - demand remains in a loose pattern. [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market is facing potential supply - demand imbalances, with a bearish outlook if OPEC+ further releases production capacity [1]. - Precious metals are strongly influenced by interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence, and the focus is on the US non - farm payroll data [2]. - Different metals and commodities have varying trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand changes, and inventory adjustments, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each [1][2][3]. - The stock index may shift from a smooth upward trend to a volatile upward trend, and the market style suggests increasing the allocation of technology - growth sectors while also paying attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - The yield curve of treasury bonds is likely to steepen, and attention should be paid to the supply of government bonds and the matching of funds [48]. Summaries by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent 11 contract down 0.76%. US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 2415000 barrels last week. If OPEC+ further releases the remaining 1.657 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts, the supply - demand will be bearish. Hold short positions on the SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and Fujairah fuel oil inventories increased. The third batch of quotas was released later than expected. The supply pressure of LU has eased, and its warehouse receipts decreased slightly. FU lacks obvious drivers but may get geopolitical premium support [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The 9 - month CP remained stable. After the gas off - season, it showed some resilience. Supported by rising import costs and rebounding domestic demand, the price of civil gas increased. The high - basis difference pattern is maintained, and the short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [22]. - **Coal (Coke and Coking Coal)**: The prices of coke and coking coal rebounded during the day. The first round of coke price cuts was partially implemented. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and are under short - term pressure [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight US economic data was mixed. Supported by stable interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence, precious metals are strongly running. Focus on the US non - farm payroll data [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell. The market is highly concerned about the non - farm data. Short - term long positions can still be held, paying attention to the performance at 79500 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate has seasonally increased. It is expected to test the resistance in the 21000 - yuan area in the short term [4]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals are characterized by increasing supply and weak demand. The inventory of Shanghai zinc increased, and it may test the key level of 22000 yuan. The idea of shorting the profit of the futures market remains unchanged [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel weakened, and the market trading picked up. The political unrest in Indonesia has gradually subsided. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel decreased. Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fell. The inventory of LME tin increased slightly. Shanghai tin adjusted to 271000 yuan. Short - term long positions can be flexibly held based on 270000 - 271000 yuan [10]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The import volume remained high, and the port inventory increased significantly. The supply in the inland area increased, and the production enterprises' inventory increased slightly. Although the current situation is weak, the market is expected to be strong due to the expected increase in downstream demand [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The night - trading chemical market stabilized, and pure benzene rebounded to 6000 yuan/ton. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The market may improve in the third quarter, but the positive factors are limited [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The downstream products of propylene face high cost pressure, and the demand for propylene is weak. The supply of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is gradually entering the peak season, but the actual demand recovery is slow [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is running weakly with increasing supply and weak demand. It may fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda is weak. The overall inventory is increasing, and it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation pattern [28]. - **PX and PTA**: PX and PTA are weakly oscillating. The terminal weaving orders are increasing, but the production growth of PX is limited. Attention should be paid to the oil price direction and the PX - polyester balance [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade is uncertain, and the soybean meal may continue to oscillate in the short term. The global soybean oil market is strong, which may drive up the soybean crushing volume. In the long - term, the soybean meal is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are oscillating. The supply of Chinese soybeans in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. Overseas palm oil is in the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, and the domestic demand is in the peak season. Consider buying at low prices [36]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed is under harvesting pressure, and its export is declining. The domestic rapeseed market is expected to be in a tight - balance state, and the futures may stabilize in the short term [37]. - **Corn**: The domestic new - season corn is likely to have a good harvest, but the old - crop carry - over inventory is low. Corn may continue to oscillate strongly before and after the new - grain purchase, and then may run weakly at the bottom [39]. - **Cotton**: US cotton is oscillating narrowly. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to oscillate, with strong support below and limited upward space in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar prices are falling. The domestic sugar sales are fast, and the inventory pressure is light. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apple**: The early - maturing apple prices are high, and the short - term price may continue to rise. However, the supply - side positive factors are limited in the long - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. Others - **Stock Index**: The stock market was weak yesterday, and the stock index futures all fell. The short - term macro situation is uncertain, and the stock index may shift from a smooth upward trend to a volatile upward trend. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The net supply of government bonds in September is expected to be high. The yield curve is likely to steepen [48].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene: On September 2, international oil prices fluctuated higher, which supported the cost side of pure benzene and improved market sentiment. Although the futures price of pure benzene decreased, the spot price decline was small, and the basis strengthened. From the supply side, the loss of domestic pure benzene due to maintenance is gradually being offset by new production capacity, and the overall supply rhythm remains stable. However, the increase in imported pure benzene arriving at ports starting from September is expected to be a pressure point. In terms of inventory, the port inventory decreased, indicating a short - term tight balance in supply. The demand side is clearly differentiated. Overall, the rise in crude oil provides cost support, and the spot market may remain strongly volatile in the short term, but there is still a risk of a mid - term market correction as import pressure increases [3]. - Styrene: On September 2, the styrene futures price decreased, and the basis widened. Although the futures price was under pressure, the rise in crude oil drove the stabilization of pure benzene, which provided some support for the cost side of styrene. The overall operating rate of styrene remained stable, and subsequent new installations will increase the capacity utilization rate. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of styrene increased significantly, indicating continuous supply pressure. The downstream demand structure is differentiated. Overall, the rebound in oil prices drives cost stabilization, and the styrene price is expected to recover with the market fluctuations in the short term, but the contradiction between high supply and inventory accumulation will still limit its rebound space, and the weak pattern is difficult to change [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Prices**: On September 2, the main contract of styrene closed down 1.13% at 6934 yuan/ton, with a basis of 66 (+44 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 1.23% at 5936 yuan/ton [3]. - **Costs**: On September 2, Brent crude oil closed at $64.6 per barrel (+$0.6 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $68.1 per barrel (+$0.6 per barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5810 yuan/ton (-75 yuan/ton) [3]. - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 17.9 tons (+1.8 tons), a 10.8% increase compared to the previous period, indicating a large inventory accumulation. The port inventory of pure benzene was 13.8 tons (-0.6 tons), a 4.2% decrease compared to the previous period [3]. - **Supply**: Styrene plants will undergo maintenance in September, and supply is expected to decrease. Currently, the weekly production of styrene is 36.9 tons (-0.2 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 78.1% (-0.4%) [3]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream 3S products varied. The capacity utilization rate of EPS was 58.3% (-2.6%), ABS was 70.8% (-0.3%), and PS was 59.9% (+2.4%) [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Prices of styrene and pure benzene**: On September 2, the futures price of styrene decreased by 1.13% to 6934 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 0.27% to 7490 yuan/ton; the futures price of pure benzene decreased by 1.23% to 5936 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China decreased by 1.27% to 5810 yuan/ton. The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha all increased slightly [6]. - **Production and inventory of styrene and pure benzene**: From August 22 to August 29, the production of styrene in China decreased by 0.59% to 36.9 tons, and the production of pure benzene increased by 0.24% to 45.2 tons. The port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 10.84% to 17.9 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 2.35% to 21.1 tons. The national port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 4.17% to 13.8 tons [7]. - **Operating rates**: From August 22 to August 29, the capacity utilization rates of pure benzene downstream products such as styrene, caprolactam, phenol, and aniline all decreased to varying degrees, while the capacity utilization rate of PS among styrene downstream products increased by 2.4% to 59.9% [8]. 3.3 Industry News - The United States has imposed high tariffs on some Asian (especially South Korean) chemical products, leading to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure. South Korea has been forced to reduce its ethylene cracking capacity, and some European regions have closed factories due to high energy costs [9]. - In the first half of 2025, the overall losses of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared to the same period last year, and the loss in the refining and chemical sector alone exceeding 9 billion yuan, highlighting the fierce competition and profit compression in the industry [9]. - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core and coordinated development in South China and Northeast China. However, there are still many small - and medium - sized production capacities in the industry, and the overall concentration remains low [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating for the overall black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "sideways" [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the military parade approaches, production restrictions and cut - backs in steel mills and the coal - coke sector have intensified. After the parade, there is a high possibility of production resumption, and the industry may still have upward potential. The subsequent price fluctuations of industry products will be dominated by the production resumption logic after the parade, and the macro and policy expectations at home and abroad may also affect price volatility [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected. Iron water production decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of further decline as steel mills in Hebei enter maintenance. However, the impact is limited, and iron ore demand may return to a high level after the parade. Port inventories decreased, and the total inventory declined slightly. The price is expected to move sideways. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. With low EAF profits and tight resources, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - As the parade approaches, coke production restrictions are stronger than those of steel mills. The short - term coke supply remains tight, and the price has support before the parade. After the parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored. The coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. 3.3 Alloys - For ferromanganese - silicon, the current inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost provides short - term price support. However, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price has significant downward pressure. For ferrosilicon, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, and the cost supports the price in the short term. But the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline [2]. 3.4 Glass - The current demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are firm. After the post - trading of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still offers a premium. In the medium - to - long - term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline sideways [3][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures price, spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [6][16]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price has stopped falling and stabilized. Although the current fundamentals are weak, after the parade, iron water production may return to a high level, and the potential for phased restocking during the peak season may drive the price up [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to move sideways. Overseas mine shipments and arrivals increased, iron water production decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. With low EAF profits and tight resources, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Coke**: The voices for price hikes are weakening, and the futures price is moving sideways. The short - term supply remains tight, and the price has support before the parade. After the parade, the recovery of iron water production needs attention [12]. - **Coking Coal**: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term. After the parade, the impact of short - term disturbances will disappear, and future regulatory policies, coal mine production resumption, and Mongolian coal imports need to be monitored [12][13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost provides short - term support. However, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price has significant downward pressure [16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, and the cost supports the price in the short term. But the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Report's Core View Polyolefin - In September, the polyolefin market shows a phased characteristic of "decreased supply and increased demand", with inventory being reduced and overall market pressure under control. It is recommended to continue holding the expanding position of the LP01 contract [2]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is strong in the short - term. After the parade, there may be an increase in orders from other provinces, and some caustic soda plants may raise prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [4]. PVC - The PVC market continues to be in a situation of oversupply. Although it is the traditional demand peak season in September, demand remains sluggish. It is expected to continue weak and volatile [4]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose. The supply side supports buying, while the demand side is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent OPEC+ meetings. In the short - term, wait and see, use a positive arbitrage strategy, and look for opportunities to expand options after the volatility increases [7]. Methanol - The methanol supply is expected to increase, while the traditional downstream demand is weak. It is necessary to focus on the restart of MTO devices at ports and the inventory digestion rhythm. The 01 contract can consider the possibility of a decline in imports due to gas restrictions in Iran [17]. Urea - The urea futures price rebounded slightly, driven by supply - side maintenance and Indian tender news. However, weak demand limits the upside space [21]. PX - PX supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance in September. PX11 can focus on the area around 6800 [25]. PTA - PTA supply - demand is expected to improve, and the absolute price is supported in the short - term. [26] Ethylene Glycol - In September, domestic ethylene glycol supply is high, imports are revised down, and port inventories are low. Consider going long EG2601 or selling put options EG2601 - P - 4300 [26]. Short - fiber - In September, short - fiber supply - demand is expected to improve, but the inventory reduction is limited. The price fluctuates mainly with raw materials [26]. Bottle Chip - In September, bottle chip manufacturers maintain a 20% production cut. Demand declines slightly, and the upside space is limited [26]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, demand support is weak, and the absolute price is under short - term pressure. However, the strong oil price restricts the downward space. For BZ2603, focus on the area around 5800 - 6000 [34]. Styrene - Short - term styrene supply is high, and the driver is weak. However, there is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the future, and the downward space is limited. Consider going long lightly below 7000 and focus on the support around 6900, and then mainly short on rebounds [34]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 closing prices all decreased slightly. The basis of North China LL and the spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 14.92%, and social inventory increased by 0.99%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 5.91%, and trader inventory decreased by 1.81% [2]. - **Operating Rate**: PE device operating rate decreased slightly, and downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.72%. PP device operating rate increased by 2.6%, and powder operating rate increased by 4.1% [2]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Price and Export Profit**: FOB price of caustic soda in East China remained unchanged, and export profit decreased. PVC's CFR Southeast Asia price decreased, and export profit increased [4]. - **Operating Rate and Profit**: The caustic soda industry operating rate and PVC total operating rate decreased. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide PVC and Northwest integrated PVC decreased [4]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, and PVC's pre - sales volume decreased [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China decreased, while that in Shandong increased. PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased [4]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices all rose. The spreads of Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, etc. changed significantly [7]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of some refined oil products and their spreads changed, and the cracking spreads of some refined oil products also changed [7]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices decreased. The basis of Taicang and regional spreads changed [17]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased [17]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises decreased, while that of overseas enterprises increased. The operating rate of downstream MTO devices increased [17]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some urea products and their spreads changed [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased, and factory and port inventories increased [21]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - **PX**: PX futures prices decreased, and spreads such as PX - crude oil and PX - naphtha decreased [24][25]. - **PTA**: PTA spot and futures prices changed slightly, and the processing fee increased [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol decreased, and the basis increased [25]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, etc. changed, and the spreads of pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha decreased [32]. - **Benzene and Styrene Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the basis and import profit changed [32]. - **Downstream Cash Flow**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed [33]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. The operating rates of some industries in the industrial chain changed [34].