发布日期：2025 年 12 月 25 日 一、市场行情回顾 【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡 1，期货市场：纯碱主力日内震荡，收十字星。成交量较昨日减 12.3 万手， 持仓量较昨日减 4142 手；日内最高 1195，最低 1174，收盘 1184，（较昨日结 算价）涨 6 元/吨，涨幅 0.51%。 2，现货市场：价格成交重心下移。企业装置大稳小动，个别产量提升，供 应有所增加。企业发货前期订单为主，库存震荡下行。下游需求表现一般，观望 情绪浓郁，低价刚需补库。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1300，基差 116 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 进出口方面，11 月份国内纯碱出口量 18.94 万吨，环比-2.51 万吨。1-11 月累计出口量 196.12 万吨，较去年同期增加 92.25 万吨。11 月份国内纯碱进口 量在 0.025 万吨。1-11 月累计进口量为 2.17 万吨，较去年同期减少 94.67 万吨， 跌幅 97.76%。11 月份国内纯碱净出口 18.92 万吨；1-11 月累计净出口 193.95 万吨。 三、主要逻辑总结 供应方面，截止 12 月 25 日，国内纯碱产量 71 ...

芳烃市场周报： 成本支撑，PX表现偏强 （PX，纯苯，苯乙烯） 姜周曦琳 F03114700 Z0022394 金融研究院 2025年12月25日 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 近期PX市场 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 • 成本：国际油价反弹，PX外盘价格连续上行，近期期现货价格偏强。中石化12月PX挂牌价格小幅上调至7000元/吨，11月中石化PX结算价格 6840元/吨。截止到12月24日，亚洲PX收于901美元/吨，较三季度末上涨92.17美元/吨，PX和石脑油价差收于360.75美元/吨，较三季度末上涨 143.67美元/吨。 • 供给：本周PX产量为74.82万吨，环比+0%。国内PX周均产能利用率89.21%，环比+0%。中化泉州80万吨PX装置11月25日停机检修，预计检修两 个月。福佳大化一套70万吨PX装置3月下旬停机，仍处于停机状态。PX工厂的生产积极性仍维持较好，海内外开工均处于高位，暂无装置变动。 • 需求：下游PTA周均产能利用率至73.81%，环比持平，同比-8.41%。本周国内装置无新调整。 • 总结与展望：自四季度起，下游需 ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月25日 星期四 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 我值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 94690 | 93470 | +1220.00 | 1.31% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -310 | -215 | -95.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 94895 | 03580 | +1315.00 | 1.41% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | -175 | -125 | -50.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 94620 | 93400 | +1220.00 | 1.31% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜开贴水 | -380 | -285 | -95.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 3544 | 3 ...

期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 预期现实博弈，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 姓名：涂伟华 商品市场情绪偏暖，螺纹期价触底回升，但供需格局并未好转，螺纹产量小幅回升但依旧处于 年内低位，低供应未变，给予钢价支撑，但短流程钢厂利润改善，后续存回升预期。与此同时，螺 纹钢需求表现弱稳，高频需求指标虽环比增加，但仍是近年来同期低位，且下游行业也未好转，淡 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-25 煤油价格延续震荡整理，聚烯烃基差⼤ 幅⾛弱 原油和煤炭价格本周三延续弱势震荡格局。圣诞前夕原油市场成交量 低迷，油价维持窄幅震荡走势。美国仍在委内瑞拉海岸附近追踪第三艘油 轮。俄罗斯原油海上浮仓库存持续累积，较8月底增幅达48%；美国针对委 内瑞拉的制裁行动，可能引发俄罗斯原油运输商与买家的担忧。环渤海港 口动力煤市场仍维持偏弱走势。临近年底，产地完成年度任务后，停减产 煤矿增加，市场供应略有收缩；下游用户采购积极性一般，刚需跟进为 主，终端库存维持高位。现在处于"迎峰度冬"中期，关注寒潮来临时煤 炭能否因此企稳。 板块逻辑： 周三日盘前期弱势的烯烃品种出现集体反弹，这可能是市场对后市预 期的改变，也可能是对冲头寸获利平仓所致。从EG产业链本身看，有我国 华南72万吨装置下个月停车计划，也有伊朗50万吨装置当前顺利重启的消 息，净检修量占全球产能比例约为0.39%。EG的反弹可能是一种底部震 荡，尚不构成反转的充分条件。聚烯烃期货反弹，现货则以下跌为主，尤 其是PE各型号现货均环比走弱，导致两品种的基差再度走 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-25 现实预期博弈，盘⾯震荡运⾏ 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，且进入一月后钢厂有复 产预期，随着中下游冬储补库逐渐开启，焦炭供需结构或将逐渐变 紧，基本面对价格支撑仍在，盘面预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关 将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，且进入一月后进口压力将有所缓解，焦煤 基本面将延续边际改善，盘面估值仍拥有修复空间。 3. 合金方面：锰硅市场供需宽松格局难改，上游库存压力较大，锰 硅期价的上方空间预计有限，中期来看盘面仍将围绕成本估值附近低 位震荡运行。硅铁上游供应压力缓解，但终端需求淡季市场供需双 弱、盘面的上方空间仍不宜过度乐观，预计硅铁期价围绕成本估值附 近震荡运行为主。 4. 玻璃纯碱：玻璃供应仍有扰动预期，但中游下游库存中性偏高， 基本面来看当前供需仍旧过剩，若年底前无更多冷修，则高库存始终 压制价格，预计震荡偏弱，反之则价格上行。纯碱整体供需仍旧过 剩，预计短期以震荡为主，长期来看供给过剩格局进一步加剧，价格 中枢仍将下行，推动产能去化。 整体而言，淡季基本面亮点有限，但政策基调仍显积极，冬储 ...

期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪偏暖，钢矿触底回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.06%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹供应低位企稳，而需求同样弱稳，淡季基本面未见好转，钢价仍易 承压，相对利好的是成本支撑与政策预期，预计螺纹延续低位震荡运行 态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 一 产业动态 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.09%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库存高位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are supported by cost at the bottom but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non-mainstream mines as the main source of growth, exerting significant supply pressure and capping price upside. However, iron ore also has upward drivers, and is expected to trade within a range with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the downside of the coking coal futures may be limited due to the relatively high basis. After the third round of coke price cuts, the cost of dry quenched coke warehouse receipts is about 1700 - 1720, and the driving force for coke valuation repair may weaken temporarily [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside potential. The demand for ferroalloys is gradually weakening as downstream hot metal production continues to decline. Ferroalloys may follow steel price movements, and while the upside is limited, the downside is also supported by cost [48] - With the increasing expectation of new soda ash production capacity, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and the futures price is breaking through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further as glass cold repairs accelerate. High inventories in the upstream and midstream restrict the price [65] - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to undergo cold repairs, which may affect far - month pricing and market expectations. The near - month 01 contract will follow the reality (delivery logic) and be mainly driven by warehouse receipt games, which may become clearer in late December. Currently, the high inventory in the glass midstream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [89] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3121, 3136, and 3173 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3287, 3285, and 3301 respectively [4] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3327, 3320, 3130, etc. respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3270, 3260, etc. respectively [8][10] - **Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were - 15 and 2 respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 37 and - 16 respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 52 and 14 respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 contract spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar were 166, 149, and 128 respectively [4][15] Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 798, 779.5, and 758 respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 contract bases were - 6.5, 11.5, and 33.5 respectively [22] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 787, 867, and 669 respectively [22] - **Fundamentals**: As of December 19, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 226.55, the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63, and the 247 - steel mill inventory was 8723.95 [25] Coal and Coke - **Futures Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 165, - 80, and - 85 respectively; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coke were 219, - 74.5, and - 144.5 respectively [34] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 [37] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 76, the 01 - 05 spread was - 80, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5330 [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 88, the 01 - 05 spread was - 70, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5570 [50] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 soda ash contracts were 1184, 1241, and 1117 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 57, 124, and - 67 respectively [66] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1300, 1400, etc. respectively; the light - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1250, 1350, etc. respectively [66] Glass - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 glass contracts were 1048, 1145, and 941 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 97, 204, and - 107 respectively [90] - **Spot Sales**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed different trends [91]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PE, the supply is continuously abundant, the demand is in the off - season, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure from supply - demand contradiction, although the cost support has increased [3]. - For PP, the supply pressure is expected to be less than that of PE, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited, with the cost support increasing [4]. - The strategy suggests to cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices, to wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations, and to shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6296元/吨（+56），PP主力合约收盘价为6158元/吨（+39），LL华北现货为6200元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为6370元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为6120元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-96元/吨（-106），LL华东基差为74元/吨（-86），PP华东基差为-38元/吨（-69） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为-55.9元/吨（-117.5），PP油制生产利润为-545.9元/吨（-117.5），PDH制PP生产利润为-714.1元/吨（-84.3） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为-127.5元/吨（+4.3），PP进口利润为-271.6元/吨（-55.8），PP出口利润为-6.4美元/吨（+7.0） [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.3%） [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply remains high with limited planned maintenance at the end of the year and low maintenance in Q1 next year, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation. Demand enters the off - season with declining downstream开工率. Inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The cost support has increased, but the supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price [3]. - **PP**: Short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited changes. Supply is still under pressure, but there may be a slow reduction in supply due to potential production cuts. Demand has limited order follow - up, and only BOPP provides some support. Inventory is high. The cost support has increased, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices; wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy [5]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-24 市场成交偏弱，钢价区间波动 玻璃纯碱：现货需求偏弱，玻碱窄幅震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾依旧存在，且伴随春节临近，刚 需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格易跌难涨，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需 求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货窄幅震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量虽有下降，但仍处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。目 前库存高位震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 供需与逻辑：上周硅铁产量大幅回落，企业主动调整生产节奏，应对需求下滑。硅铁企业库存压力得到缓解，硅 铁基本面矛盾有所缓和。关注后续硅铁去库情况、成本端变化及产区政策情况。 策略 硅锰方面：震荡 硅铁方面：震荡 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据 ...