Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the steel market in the second half of the year will be influenced by multiple factors, with prices expected to initially decline before rising [1] - Domestic demand for steel is heavily reliant on policy support, with a projected decline in demand for construction steel, although urban renewal may offset some of the decrease [1] - Infrastructure steel demand may improve on a month-on-month basis, but lacks significant growth potential [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector is showing weakness in certain areas, requiring support from "two new" policies [1] - Direct exports are expected to remain high, but are unlikely to drive steel prices significantly [1] - Supply-side production is anticipated to fluctuate slightly, with ongoing reductions in crude steel production causing disruptions [1] Group 3 - Iron ore supply pressure is easing, with a projected increase of approximately 13.7 million tons in global iron ore shipments by 2025, while annual foreign ore arrivals are expected to decrease by 15 to 20 million tons year-on-year [1] - Under optimistic assumptions, average molten iron production is expected to be 2.39 million tons per day in Q3, decreasing to 2.28 million tons per day in Q4 [1] - Under pessimistic assumptions, crude steel production may be reduced by 10 to 20 million tons in Q4, leading to significant inventory pressure [1] Group 4 - Recommendations suggest seizing rebound opportunities in undervalued areas while paying attention to the downward pressure from crude steel reduction policies [1] - Risk factors include potential negative impacts from tariffs on exports and strict enforcement of crude steel reduction policies [1] - The demand outlook for coke is not optimistic, with no significant downward expectations for molten iron in the short term, but long-term demand for finished products remains under pressure [1] Group 5 - Coking coal mines are still profitable, but supply pressures persist, with short-term demand for molten iron supported by basic needs [1] - High levels of imports are stable, but price pressures exist, necessitating attention to coal mine safety regulations [1] - The cost of silicon manganese continues to exert pressure, with production control becoming increasingly difficult [1] Group 6 - The difficulty of destocking silicon iron is increasing, with challenges in inventory digestion as steel production declines [1] - The destocking process may accelerate during the peak season, with potential for valuation recovery, although the extent of rebound is limited [1] - Attention is required on production control measures from manufacturers [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers a wide range of financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategy, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products. Market conditions are influenced by various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and geopolitical events. For example, the US core PCE data affects gold and stock markets, and policy changes in different countries impact commodity markets [13][21][37]. - Different markets have different outlooks. Some markets are expected to be bullish in the long - term but may face short - term fluctuations, while others are expected to be bearish or remain in a range - bound state [2][21][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Inflationary pressure led to a lack of short - term motivation for the Fed to cut interest rates, causing gold prices to decline on Friday. Geopolitical risks did not intensify. Short - term gold prices are expected to be weak with potential for further decline [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill has entered a short - term deadlock. Although it is expected to pass, the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term due to the split within the Republican Party and the expected increase in the deficit [15][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US May core PCE price index growth was higher than expected. The market's risk appetite remains high under the support of the interest - rate cut cycle and upcoming tax - cut bills. However, the current position of US stocks does not fully account for negative factors such as tariff negotiations and economic downturn, so there is a risk of correction [19][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The profits of large - scale industrial enterprises in China declined in May. Treasury bond futures rose as a reaction to the weak stock market. The central bank's support for market liquidity is a key factor for the bullish view, but the market may face short - term fluctuations. Long positions can be held, and buying on dips is recommended [22][24][25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The profits of industrial enterprises from January to May turned negative, but the stock market has been strong recently. The divergence between the market and fundamentals is increasing. If policies can promote economic recovery, the market will be more stable; otherwise, the sustainability of the market rally will be reduced. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [26][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - US coal production increased from January to May 2025. Steam coal prices strengthened, with the 5500K coal price remaining stable and low - calorie coal prices rising slightly. High - temperature weather in June improved demand, and supply was slightly affected by safety inspections. It is expected that the demand pressure will ease in July [30][31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The air - conditioner production orders in July turned negative year - on - year. The iron ore price rebounded slightly this week. Although there is pressure on port inventories in July due to the shipping rush in June, this negative factor has been partially priced in. The overall trend is expected to be range - bound, and steel mill profits may be slightly compressed [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. Palm oil production data in Malaysia shows mixed trends, and exports are expected to increase. Palm oil is expected to remain range - bound, and soybean oil is also expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Indian restocking, US soybean weather, and US biofuel policies [33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - A cold front caused frost in the sugar - cane producing areas of southern Brazil. The sugar - cane crushing volume in the first half of June in southern Brazil is expected to decrease by 19.3% year - on - year, and sugar production is expected to decrease by 19.9%. The international sugar market is under supply pressure, but the external market has shown signs of stabilization, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The drought - affected area of US cotton remained at 3% in the week ending June 24. Indian cotton planting area increased slightly. US cotton export contracts declined. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain in a low - level range - bound state, and attention should be paid to the USDA's actual planting area report [40][42][43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills was close to 2.5 million tons last week. The drought - affected area of US soybeans decreased. Imported soybean costs declined, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The price of US soybeans and soybean meal futures are expected to be supported at certain levels, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and inventory reports [44][46]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Africa imposed temporary safeguard measures on imported steel flat - rolled products. The production of white goods in July decreased year - on - year. Steel prices rebounded, but the profit margin declined. The steel market may rebound slightly in the short term but faces medium - term pressure [47][49][50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The growth progress of corn in different regions varies. The spot price of corn is likely to strengthen, but significant price increases may require accelerated inventory depletion. It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts and consider shorting new - crop contracts when the production situation is clearer [52]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch narrowed. The substitution effect needs further attention. It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina inventory increased slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the weighted index declined slightly. The short - term futures price is expected to be strong due to low inventory and warehouse receipts [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - India plans to take measures to address copper supply risks. A new copper project in Canada has released resource data. Short - term macro - expectations are volatile, and the US dollar may continue to weaken. The domestic copper inventory situation is divided. The copper market is expected to be range - bound at a high level, and caution is needed when chasing long positions [55][57]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zhongkuang Resources plans to invest in a lithium salt production project. The short - term lithium price is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to avoid short positions or shift to the LC2511 contract and look for buying opportunities on dips [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon futures contract rebounded, possibly related to policy news. The supply is expected to be in surplus in July. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and consider positive spreads between contracts [60][61]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A large silicon enterprise in Xinjiang suddenly cut production. The industry's production situation is complex. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [62][63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei's products are suitable for low - altitude aircraft power scenarios. Nickel prices rebounded last week. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron are expected to be weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [64][65][66]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The short - term supply and demand of lead are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long - term. It is recommended to look for buying opportunities on dips and pay attention to positive spreads between contracts [68]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was in contango, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc market may rise in the short term but faces a surplus in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see, protect existing short positions, and consider positive spreads between contracts [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA carbon price fluctuated last week. The short - term carbon price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to European weather and geopolitical situations [71][72][73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ may discuss increasing production in July. The number of US oil rigs decreased. The oil price has returned to near the pre - conflict level, and the risk premium may remain in the third quarter. The oil price is expected to be range - bound [73][74][75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder increased, but the trading volume was low. The PVC market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factories' export prices were mostly stable. The industry plans to cut production in July, which will relieve supply pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand the processing margin [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong had minor fluctuations. The supply was limited due to enterprise maintenance, and the demand was relatively stable. The futures price rebounded, but the rebound height may be limited [79][80]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp stabilized. The futures price rebounded slightly. The pulp market is expected to be range - bound [81][82]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The Antwerp port was severely disrupted by strikes, causing delays for nearly 50 merchant ships. The spot freight rate is showing signs of peaking. The short - term decline of the EC2508 contract is limited, but the return on long positions is also limited [83][84][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of coking coal is expected to face resistance due to weak terminal demand despite short - term upward support, and short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [3] - The price of crude oil has dropped significantly. Although the supply - demand situation has improved, geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain variable. It is recommended to operate cautiously and buy put options on crude oil with a light position [5] - The price of copper is expected to remain oscillating strongly in the short term, with the subsequent direction guided by the Fed's policy and the implementation of copper tariffs [10] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the short term and remain bearish in the long - term [12] - It is recommended to operate cautiously on asphalt and go long on the 09 - 12 spread on dips [13] - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level [15] - Plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near term [16] - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level recently [18] - Soybean oil futures are expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [19] - Soybean meal futures are expected to show an oscillating adjustment [21] - Urea is expected to oscillate and consolidate currently, and the subsequent trend depends on export quotas [22] Summary by Variety Coking Coal - Price movement: Opened and closed higher, rising nearly 5% on the day [3] - Spot price: The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was reported at 930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 724 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [3] - Fundamentals: Supply decreased due to environmental and safety inspections. Demand was weak. The market sentiment improved, but terminal demand was insufficient. It is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [3] Crude Oil - Geopolitical situation: Tensions in the Middle East have cooled rapidly, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions. However, uncertainties remain, such as the implementation of the cease - fire agreement and US sanctions [4][5] - Fundamentals: Entered the seasonal travel peak, with US crude inventories falling to a low level and OPEC+ production increase falling short of expectations. It is recommended to operate cautiously and buy put options on crude oil with a light position [5] Copper - Price movement: Opened and closed higher, with an upward breakthrough in the price range [10] - Fundamentals: Supply was still increasing, while global copper inventories were being depleted at different rates. Demand was boosted by export but was weak in the terminal market. It is expected to remain oscillating strongly in the short term [10] Lithium Carbonate - Price movement: Opened low and closed high, with an upward - trending price center [11] - Fundamentals: Supply was sufficient, and the price was approaching the cost line. Downstream demand was cautious, but the new energy market sales were good. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the long - term [11][12] Asphalt - Supply: The weekly operating rate increased, and the July production plan increased. Inventories were at a low level [13] - Demand: Downstream operating rates varied, and the national shipment volume increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread on dips [13] PP - Operating rate: Both downstream and enterprise operating rates decreased, and the production ratio of standard products declined [14] - Fundamentals: New production capacity was put into operation, and inventory pressure was high. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15] Plastic - Operating rate: The operating rate increased, while the downstream operating rate decreased, and the overall was at a low level [16] - Fundamentals: New production capacity was put into operation, and demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [16] PVC - Operating rate: Both upstream and downstream operating rates decreased, and the export situation was complex [17] - Fundamentals: Social inventories increased, and demand was not substantially improved. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18] Soybean Oil - International situation: The weather in the US soybean - producing areas was conducive to production [19] - Domestic situation: The soybean crushing volume was high, and inventories were expected to rise. It is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [19] Soybean Meal - International situation: The weather in the US was beneficial to soybean growth [20] - Domestic situation: The soybean crushing volume was high, and inventories were accumulating rapidly. It is expected to show an oscillating adjustment [20][21] Urea - Supply: The daily output was stable, and the supply pressure was relieved by exports [22] - Demand: The new order volume decreased, and the support from compound fertilizer factories was limited. It is expected to oscillate and consolidate [22] Market Overview - As of the close on June 27, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Polysilicon rose more than 6%, coking coal rose nearly 5%, and industrial silicon rose more than 4% [7] - In terms of fund flow, funds flowed into contracts such as SHFE copper 2508 and flowed out of contracts such as SHFE gold 2508 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On June 26, the coke主力合约 closed at 1395.5 yuan/ton, up 1.86% intraday. The spot prices at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port decreased week-on-week. With the accumulation of positive factors, the market sentiment changed, and the coke futures rebounded at a low level. The market is expected to be in a stalemate in June, and the coking coal supply in July should be monitored [5][33]. - On June 26, the coking coal主力合约 closed at 819.5 points, up 3.60% intraday. The supply of coking coal shrank during the safety month, and the import volume was also restricted. After the coking coal price reached a multi - year low in early June, the contract started to rise. The recovery of Shanxi's production in July should be focused on [6][34]. Summary by Directory Industry News - From April to May 2025, the number of global new shipbuilding orders decreased by 46, and the corrected total tonnage decreased by 63.85% month - on - month. Compared with May 2024, the number decreased by 111, and the corrected total tonnage decreased by 54.71% year - on - year. Chinese shipyards received the most orders, and South Korea ranked second [8]. - On June 26, Mongolia's small TT company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 4 raw coal was 78 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton from June 5. All 102,400 tons were sold at the base price [9]. Spot Market - For coke, the current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade flat - price coke is 1,220 yuan/ton, down 3.94% week - on - week; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse price is 1,140 yuan/ton, down 2.56% week - on - week [10]. - For coking coal, the current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 865 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of Australian - produced coal at Jingtang Port is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 1.65% week - on - week; the price of Shanxi - produced coal at Jingtang Port is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke主力合约 was 1,395.5 yuan/ton, up 1.86%, with a trading volume of 22,795 and an open interest of 51,299, an increase of 24 from the previous trading day [13]. - The closing price of the coking coal主力合约 was 819.5 points, up 3.60%, with a trading volume of 870,999 and an open interest of 564,662, an increase of 40,404 from the previous trading day [13]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port, and total inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine mouth, port, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), and other related charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, and coking plant production [14][21][27]. Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short - term rebound of coke futures and the upward trend of coking coal contracts, and suggesting to pay attention to the coking coal supply in July and the production recovery in Shanxi [33][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The report suggests a strategy of testing short positions on rebounds for steel. The industry is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and with the arrival of the demand off - season, prices are more likely to fall without macro - policy support [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to run strongly in a narrow range. Although the supply is expected to increase, the high domestic demand provides support. The i2509 contract price is expected to be in the range of 695 - 720 yuan/ton, and the FE07 contract price in the range of 93 - 96 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term market sentiment for coking coal and coke has improved, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The reduction in coal production and imports has alleviated the supply - surplus pressure [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is expected to show narrow - range adjustments, following the trend of the black - metal market. The supply of ferromanganese is increasing, putting pressure on prices, while the impact of ferrosilicon inventory on prices is neutral [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of futures and spot prices of various black - industry products showed different changes last week. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 increased by 23 yuan/ton (0.77%), and the spot price of HRB400E:Φ20 in Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.32%) [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black - Industry Market Forecast - **Steel**: The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.79%, and the steel - mill profitability rate was 59.31%. The demand for finished products is in the off - season, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The strategy is to test short positions on rebounds [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The market was mainly affected by geopolitical factors last week. The demand for finished products was in the off - season but did not accumulate inventory. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, but high demand provides support for prices [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke continued to fluctuate last week. The 4th round of price cuts for coke by steel mills is expected to be implemented this week. The reduction in imports and production has alleviated the supply - surplus pressure [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market reaction to the Fed's interest - rate decision was stable, but the escalation of the Middle East conflict may increase market volatility. The supply of ferromanganese is increasing, and the demand for both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon has slightly recovered [12]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 212.18 tons (up 4.61 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 219.19 tons (down 0.78 tons week - on - week). The total inventory was 551.07 tons (down 7.01 tons week - on - week) [14][21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output was 325.45 tons (up 0.8 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 330.69 tons (up 10.81 tons week - on - week). The total inventory was 340.17 tons (down 5.24 tons week - on - week) [27][32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total import - ore port inventory (45 ports) was 13894.16 tons (down 38.98 tons week - on - week). The inventory of various ore types showed different changes [45][51]. - **Steel - Mill Inventory and Consumption**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 8936.24 tons (up 137.56 tons week - on - week), and the daily consumption was 301.00 tons/day (up 0.57 tons/day week - on - week) [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The global total shipment was 3431.0 tons (up 242.3 tons week - on - week), with different changes in shipments from different regions [71]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 952.91 tons (down 18.68 tons week - on - week), and the total coking - coal inventory was 2610.4 tons (down 11.19 tons week - on - week) [101][109]. - **Production and Profit**: The average daily coke output of independent coking enterprises was 64.7 tons (down 0.3 tons week - on - week), and the average daily coking - coal output of 523 coking mines was 74.4 tons (up 0.3 tons week - on - week) [118][119]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The spot price of ferromanganese was 5500 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of ferrosilicon was 5100 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [135]. - **Production and Demand**: The output of ferromanganese was 176610 tons (up 3220 tons week - on - week), and the demand was 123717 tons (up 1564 tons week - on - week). The output of ferrosilicon was 9.79 tons (up 0.28 tons week - on - week), and the demand was 19964.4 tons (up 357 tons week - on - week) [143][150].

瑞达期货研究院 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「2025.06.20」 热轧卷板市场周报 终端需求好于预期 热卷期价震荡偏强 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至6月20日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3116（+34），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3220（+30）。（单 位：元/吨） 2. 产量：热卷产量小幅提升。325.45（+0.8）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：终端需求韧性较强，表观需求回升。本期表需330.69（+10.81），（同比+11.75）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库与社库同步下滑。总库存340.17（-5.24），（同比-75.44）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率59.31%，环比上周增加0.87个百分点，同比去年增加7.36个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外， （1）以伊冲突不断升级加剧了人们对发生更广泛冲突的担忧，眼下全 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the futures market for coke and coking coal is experiencing fluctuations, with coke futures showing a slight decline and coking coal futures also facing downward pressure, but with potential for recovery in the future [1] - As of June 19, the main contract for coke closed at 1374 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.11%, and the main contract open interest was 50,300 lots, down by 1,539 lots from the previous session [1] - The spot market price for coking coal at Ganqimaodu port was reported at 865.0 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.8%, with the futures warehouse receipt cost estimated at 834 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - The article notes that in June, coking coal supply is expected to contract, but production is likely to recover after the safety month, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The steel production data shows that China's crude steel output in May 2025 is projected to be 86.54 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, with cumulative production from January to May at 431.63 million tons, down 1.7% year-on-year [1] - The article highlights that the geopolitical situation, including the Israel-Palestine conflict and the easing of China-US trade tensions, has positively influenced market sentiment, although the long-term oversupply of coking coal remains a concern [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is in a state of shock, with varying degrees of changes in supply, demand, and inventory in each sector. Uncertainties remain in the market, and prices are affected by multiple factors such as policies, geopolitics, and raw material prices [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel plate continued to fluctuate today. The apparent demand for thread was stable week - on - week, production increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coils recovered, production remained high, and inventory declined. The blast furnace still has profits, and the molten iron output remains relatively high, but the off - season carrying capacity is insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation still fermented repeatedly. The overall domestic demand is still weak, the market sentiment is cautious, and the plate fluctuation narrows. The short - term trend is mainly shock [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore plate fluctuated today. The global shipment is in the peak season, and there is an expectation of end - of - season impulse. The domestic arrival volume decreased, but is expected to rebound. The port inventory is expected to stop falling and increase, and the supply pressure increases marginally. The terminal demand is in the off - season, the steel mills still have profits, and the molten iron output is expected to remain relatively high in the short term. The market uncertainty is still strong, and the iron ore is expected to fluctuate [2] Coke - The coke price fluctuated upward during the day. The molten iron output decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of the fourth round of price cuts. The coking profit has shrunk, and the daily coking output has declined from the annual high. The overall coke inventory decreased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders is still low. Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the coking coal price rebounded, and the coke price is driven by crude oil to some extent [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated upward during the day. The production of coking coal mines continued to decline slightly, and the supply was still restricted. The spot auction market improved slightly at low prices, and the decline in transaction prices slowed down. The terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The overall coking coal inventory may be destocked, but the rebound space of the coking coal price should not be overly optimistic due to inventory pressure [5] Silicomanganese - Affected by international conflicts, the silicomanganese price fluctuated upward during the day. The tender inquiry price of a large steel mill in the north was 5500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton compared with May. The inventory level decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly production began to increase. The manganese ore inventory accumulation speed increased, and the price is under further pressure, but the price - holding intention of manganese mines has increased. The silicomanganese is temporarily bullish in the short term [5] Ferrosilicon - Affected by international conflicts, the ferrosilicon price fluctuated upward during the day. The futures and options trading of ferrosilicon is open to qualified overseas investors. The molten iron output decreased slightly, the export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact was small. The metal magnesium production increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand remained stable at a high level. The ferrosilicon supply continued to decline, and the market transaction level was average. The inventory decreased slightly. The ferrosilicon is temporarily bullish in the short term [6]

Report Summary - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Report's core view: The EIA report is relatively positive as gasoline demand improves and overall terminal demand rises. Despite inventory drops influenced by进出口 factors, the US domestic oil market shows peak - season characteristics. However, the market focuses more on the Middle - East conflict and ignores institutional reports and fundamentals [8] Key Data Summary - As of June 13, US commercial crude oil inventory was 420,942 thousand barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 114,730 thousand barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 18,000 thousand barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 9,950 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 2,300 thousand barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventory increased by 2,090 thousand barrels, less than the expected increase of 6,000 thousand barrels. Distillate inventory increased by 5,140 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 4,000 thousand barrels [2][3] - US crude oil net imports decreased by 174,700 thousand barrels per day, and refinery throughput decreased by 36,400 thousand barrels per day. Refinery operating rate dropped 1.1% to 93.2% [3][4] - US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 90 thousand barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand increased by 163.75 thousand barrels per day, distillate apparent demand increased by 83.5 thousand barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand increased by 40.75 thousand barrels per day [3] Market Situation - After the data release, oil prices continued to decline. The market focused on the Middle - East Iran - Israel conflict and ignored institutional reports and fundamentals. News of Iranian planes flying to Oman caused a short - term oil price drop, but subsequent Iranian denials restored oil prices [8]