Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly. Shanghai rubber 2509 and synthetic rubber 2507 are likely to maintain a slightly stronger and oscillating trend on Thursday, May 22, 2025 [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall view: running strongly [1]. - **Core Logic**: Macro factors have improved, boosting the confidence of rubber market bulls. However, new rubber supply is gradually increasing as the new rubber tapping season begins in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas. Meanwhile, the procurement demand is expected to increase as the operating rate of the downstream tire industry returns to normal. Against the backdrop of improved supply - demand structure, Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend. On the night of Wednesday, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures slightly rose 0.61% to 14,945 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall view: running strongly [1]. - **Core Logic**: Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and macro factors have turned optimistic, the US debt crisis in June is approaching, which may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating production, and the crude oil demand is expected to be weak. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has become chaotic again, increasing geopolitical risks. With the recovery of crude oil premium, the 2507 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly rose 0.62% to 12,145 yuan/ton on the night of Wednesday. It may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Thursday [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have led to an increase in oil prices at the cost - end, providing short - term support for PX and PTA. PX and PTA are in the maintenance season, with a significant reduction in supply. The resonance of cost and supply - demand factors drives the market to run strongly. However, attention should be paid to terminal orders, production and sales, and transaction situations. The short - term volatile pattern of oil prices has limited support for the cost - end of polyester. The inventory pressure of polyester yarn has been relieved, and future attention should be paid to the stocking rhythm of downstream yarn mills [2][4][5] - The future price of PX may fluctuate or rebound slightly due to the large basis and possible cost impact of oil prices. PTA may face the dual pressure of weakening cost support and insufficient demand, and its price may continue to decline [34] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On May 20, the PX main contract closed at 6,668.0 yuan/ton, down 1.24% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 204.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,732.0 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 268.0 yuan/ton. The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 65.48 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 62.15 US dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 748.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction volume was 987.53 million meters [3] - Regarding supply, many PX and PTA plants have maintenance plans or have been restarted. The domestic PX plant operating rate is 73%, and the Asian operating rate is 67.9%. The PTA operating rate is around 75.6%, and the polyester operating rate is around 94.2%. Geopolitical risks may cause a rapid increase in crude oil prices [4] Polyester - On May 20, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,506.0 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,585.0 yuan/ton, down 50.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 79.0 yuan/ton. The 15 - day average trading volume of the Light Textile City showed a slight downward trend. The inventory of polyester yarn decreased, and the inventory pressure was not large [5] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The prices of PX, PTA, and short - fiber futures and spot, as well as their trading volume, open interest, basis, and price differences, are presented in detail in the report. The prices of some products such as Brent crude oil, US crude oil, and ethylene glycol remained unchanged on May 20 compared with the previous day. The prices of some polyester products such as polyester bottle chips decreased [6] - The processing spreads of some products such as PTA decreased slightly, and the trading volume of the Light Textile City decreased. The inventory days of polyester yarn decreased [7] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macro Dynamics - On May 20, Atlanta Fed President Bostic reiterated his preference for only one interest rate cut this year; New York Fed President Williams said the recent economic data was very good but the economy was full of uncertainties; Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson treated Moody's downgrade of the US rating as general data for policy - making; Dallas Fed President Logan said the Fed should consider strengthening mechanisms to prevent money - market rate spikes more effectively when the market is under pressure [8] - On May 19, the US one - year inflation expectation in May reached the highest level since 1981; consumer confidence slightly declined to the second - lowest in history but ended four consecutive months of sharp decline. Fed Bostic expected one interest rate cut this year and that the US would not fall into a recession. It was reported that the Fed planned to lay off 10% of its staff in the next few years [8] Supply - Demand (Demand) - On May 20, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 748.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 8.56%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 588.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 160.0 million meters. On November 6, the 15 - day average production and sales rate of polyester factories was 53.56% [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts such as PX and PTA futures and basis, spot prices, capacity utilization rates, and processing profits, as well as charts related to short - fiber futures and basis, and industrial chain load rates [10][12][14]

Report Summary of Crude Oil 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The domestic crude oil futures contract 2507 is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend on Wednesday, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of upward movement [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information - **Price and Movement** - On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract slightly rose 0.69% to 467.8 yuan/barrel [5]. - News that Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities caused international oil prices to jump 3% on Wednesday morning [5]. - **Driving Factors** - Positive factors: The "gray rhino" effect of the approaching US debt crisis in June may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, and the expected demand for crude oil is weak. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased again due to the decreasing expectation of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and the news of Israel's potential attack on Iranian nuclear facilities [5]. - Negative factors: Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and the macro - factors have turned optimistic [5].

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the easing of tariff and geopolitical risks, precious metals in the Shanghai market dropped significantly. The short - term outlook for gold is a major negative, with the possibility of the Fed's preventive interest rate cut decreasing and the rate - cut time likely to be postponed to after September. Although the medium - and long - term interest rate cut expectation is positive for gold and there is significant buying support from continuous inflows into gold ETFs, gold may remain under pressure in the short term. Silver has some support from its industrial and commodity attributes but may still be weak due to the linkage effect with gold. It is recommended to wait and see, and specific price ranges for different contracts are provided [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 739.82 yuan/gram, down 21.9 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 8008 yuan/kilogram, down 187 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 211,188 hands, down 3,590 hands; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver were 342,882 hands, up 62,114 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 106,847 hands, down 1,171 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract were 122,646 hands, down 13,699 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 17,238 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 914,782 kilograms, down 4,681 kilograms [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 737 yuan/gram, down 21.51 yuan; the spot price of silver was 8026 yuan/kilogram, down 138 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 2.82 yuan/gram, up 0.39 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 18 yuan/kilogram, up 49 yuan [2]. Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 936.51 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings were 13,971.47 tons, down 28.28 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 162,497 contracts, down 821 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 49,252 contracts, down 691 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 31.99%, up 1.56 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 25.76%, up 1.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was - 1.13, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 26.62% (previous value 26.61%, change - 1.13) [2]. Industry News - China suspended 28 US entities from the export control list for 90 days and 17 US entities from the unreliable entity list for 90 days. In April, global physical gold ETFs had a strong inflow of about $11 billion, and the total asset management scale of global gold ETFs reached $379 billion at the end of April. Asia had a large inflow of about $7.3 billion, with China being the main driver. Trump visited Qatar and signed multiple cooperation agreements, expected to bring at least $1.2 trillion in economic exchanges. The first - round cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine will start in Turkey, and the easing of the situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold. The Fed's attitude towards inflation and economic data was also mentioned [2].

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Group 1: Core Views - On May 13, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.67 per barrel, up $1.72 or 2.78% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.65 - $63.9 [1] - The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.63 per barrel, up $1.67 or 2.57% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.63 - $66.81 [1] - Sino - US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs; both sides suspended the implementation of 24% of relevant tariffs [2] - Geopolitical risks have weakened. If sanctions on Iran are eased, oil exports will increase. Hamas is ready to negotiate a cease - fire, and there is a possibility of further progress in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [3] - Affected by the optimistic outlook of trade negotiations and the expected shortage of heavy crude oil supply, oil prices are running strongly. A double - bottom pattern has formed, attracting buying sentiment. However, the continuous upward space for oil prices is limited due to OPEC+ production increases and Trump's low - oil - price policy. In the second quarter, oil prices will fluctuate greatly due to Trump administration's uncertain policy adjustments. Near the summer oil consumption peak season, considering factors such as the sluggish economic recovery outlook and new energy substitution, oil prices may decline [4]