Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026/01/16 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut the interest rates of structural mon ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in tin prices, with London tin dropping by 4% to $51,425 per ton and Shanghai tin futures falling over 4% to ¥415,000 per ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Views of the Report - On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating downward, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to below the 16,000 yuan/ton line, closing down 1.33% at 15,995 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread widened to 30 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices may maintain a moderately strong oscillation pattern [6]. - On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The contract price rose to a maximum of 2,318 yuan/ton and fell to a minimum of 2,254 yuan/ton, closing down 0.53% at 2,273 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread converged to 1 yuan/ton. With differences between bulls and bears emerging, methanol futures maintained a stable oscillation pattern [6]. - On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures 2603 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The contract price rose to a maximum of 460.5 yuan/barrel and fell to a minimum of 443.4 yuan/barrel, closing down 0.69% at 446.6 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East cooled down, the crude oil market gave back its premium, and the weak supply - demand fundamentals took the lead. In the short term, oil prices maintained an oscillation pattern [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons or 4.48%. Among them, the general trade inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.80%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16% [8]. - As of January 9, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will recover in the next cycle [8]. - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The annual automobile export exceeded 7 million vehicles, reaching 7.098 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In December 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. The total sales volume of the heavy - truck market in 2025 reached 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.38%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.20%, a month - on - month slight increase of 2.64%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.72%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0424 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 8,700 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 18,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 139,200 tons [10]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.05%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.65%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.30%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.51%. The acetic acid operating rate was 81.89%, a week - on - week slight increase of 4.28%. The MTBE operating rate was 58.12%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.65%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.33 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.17%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 30 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decline of 264 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.1593 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 9,300 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 40,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 402,300 tons. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 18,600 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 49,000 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 80,500 tons [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.753 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 58,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 272,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 422.4 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.391 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.767 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.585 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 745,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 413.7 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 214,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 95.3%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 3.6 percentage points [12]. - As of January 6, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 57,352 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 7,239 contracts and a slight decrease of 1,419 contracts or 2.41% compared with the December average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 120,686 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 6,220 contracts and a significant increase of 15,227 contracts or 14.44% compared with the December average [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,995 yuan/ton | - 165 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | +165 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,280 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,273 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | +7 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 425.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 446.6 yuan/barrel | - 1.4 yuan/barrel | - 21.2 yuan/barrel | +1.1 yuan/barrel | [13] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, inventory, and operating rate trends, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [14][16][18]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Propylene**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Polypropylene**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **Plastic**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Pure Benzene**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **Styrene**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **PTA**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Short Fiber**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **Bottle Chip**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Methanol**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **Urea**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **PVC**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Caustic Soda**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **Soda Ash**: ★☆☆ (One red star, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the market) [1] - **Glass**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various chemical products, including supply and demand, inventory, and price movements, and provides investment ratings and suggestions based on these analyses [1][2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated within the day. Supply was tight, inventory was controllable, and prices rose. Downstream demand was good, driving up the trading center [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures also fluctuated. For polyethylene, pre - sales during the Spring Festival continued, the overall transaction price increased, and the production load was stable. For polypropylene, the futures market was high, but there were concerns about downstream demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fell with oil prices. Supply was abundant, and inventory at ports was high. In the short term, it would fluctuate due to geopolitical risks, and there were difficulties in de - stocking in the long term [3] - Styrene futures fluctuated slightly. Supply and demand were in a tight balance, inventory was decreasing, and the export market was good [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fell. The short - term upward drive for PX weakened, but the medium - term outlook was positive. PTA's price was mainly driven by raw materials, and the processing margin improved [5] - For ethylene glycol, domestic supply increased while overseas supply decreased. In the short term, it was affected by geopolitical factors. In the second quarter, supply and demand might improve, but it was under long - term pressure [5] - Short - fiber demand was weak, and the price followed the raw materials. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment during the Spring Festival [5] - Bottle - chip production decreased, inventory decreased, and the price followed the raw materials. There was still capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose first and then fell. Overseas production was low, and port inventory was decreasing. However, demand from MTO plants was weakening, and the de - stocking speed was expected to slow down [6] - Urea prices were strong. Compound fertilizer production increased, and the market sentiment was positive. The price was expected to continue to be strong [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC prices fluctuated. Production increased slightly, exports increased, but downstream demand was weak, and inventory increased. In 2026, capacity reduction was expected, and the price center might rise [7] - Caustic soda prices were weak. Inventory was increasing, and the industry was generally losing money. The profit of chlor - alkali integration was expected to be compressed [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices were weak. Production was increasing, supply pressure was high, and downstream demand was poor. It was recommended to short on rebounds [8] - Glass prices were weak. Inventory was decreasing, but production was losing money, and demand was insufficient. In the long term, supply would decrease, and there might be buying opportunities after a correction [8]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc futures on the Shanghai market showed a significant upward trend, with the main contract reaching 25,130.00 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.20% [1] Market Data Summary - As of January 14, LME zinc inventory stood at 106,725 tons, a decrease of 175 tons, with registered warrants at 97,875 tons and canceled warrants at 8,850 tons, representing 8.29% of the total [2] - On January 14, the top 20 futures companies in Shanghai held a total long position of 147,100 contracts and a short position of 141,800 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.04. The net position increased by 477 contracts compared to the previous day, totaling 5,341 contracts [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a zinc warehouse receipt of 33,262 tons on January 14, down 351 tons from the previous trading day. Over the past week, the total decline in warehouse receipts was 7,657 tons, a decrease of 18.71%, and over the past month, the decline was 17,441 tons, a decrease of 34.40% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guangzhou Futures noted that macro sentiment impact is weakening, with upstream raw material supply tightening and zinc smelting supply reducing. As the holiday approaches, downstream zinc operating rates are gradually declining, leading to rigid consumption sentiment in the high-priced zinc market. The rebalancing of domestic and international inventories may reopen the import window, potentially supplementing domestic supply. The basic supply-demand reality is weak, suggesting a short-term high-level oscillation, with a reference price range for the main Shanghai zinc contract between 23,000 and 24,500 CNY/ton [4] - Nanhua Futures indicated that the TC in January continues to decline, with the core issue being the tight domestic raw material supply. However, due to rising by-product prices, zinc smelting can maintain production at lower processing fees, keeping January output at a high level. From a long-term perspective, supply is expected to be loose, with the import window likely to open as LME continues to deliver. High zinc prices are suppressing downstream terminal consumption. Domestic inventory reduction supports Shanghai zinc, while LME inventory has surpassed 100,000 tons. Looking ahead, while the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc have potential for bullish sentiment, there is significant hedging pressure above, maintaining a view of strong oscillation [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is in a state of high inventory and oversupply, and nickel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to potential changes in Indonesian nickel ore policies [3]. - The stainless - steel market has a situation where cost support and weak demand are in a game. The stainless - steel main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,100 yuan/ton in the short term, and focus should be on the price trend of nickel iron, spot trading volume, and macro - sentiment changes [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 14, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 140,330 yuan/ton and closed at 140,940 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,070,694 (-206,996) lots, and the open interest was 109,975 (-9,510) lots. The contract showed a trend of "opening low, wide - range fluctuation, and a slight decline at the end", with sharp intraday fluctuations. The V - shaped rebound of the US dollar index and the correction of the US stock market suppressed the prices of LME nickel and Shanghai nickel [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has a strong price - holding atmosphere. In the Philippines, mine tender prices have continuously risen. A domestic southern factory recently purchased 1.3% grade nickel ore at a CIF price of 42 US dollars. The new round of 1.3% nickel ore tender of the main mine Benguet was concluded at an FOB price of 38 US dollars, showing a significant increase. In Indonesia, the market trading was dull, and the market is waiting for the official announcement of the HPM benchmark price on the 15th. It is expected that the benchmark price in the second half of the month will increase by about 3 - 4 US dollars compared with the first half [2]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 150,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 40,272 (836) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 284,658 (510) tons [2]. Strategy - The overall strategy for nickel is to mainly conduct range operations. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 14, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,850 yuan/ton and closed at 13,925 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 214,016 (-42,112) lots, and the open interest was 134,879 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a trend of "opening low, rising high, and narrow - range strong fluctuation", supported by the rising price of nickel iron at the cost end and the firm spot price. It was more resistant to decline than Shanghai nickel and finally closed slightly higher, continuing the range - bound pattern [3]. - **Spot**: After the recent increase in spot prices, the upward momentum of the futures market is insufficient, market caution has increased, and trading has remained light. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,800 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 40 to 240 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 982.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,500 - 14,100 yuan/ton in the short term [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The market is expected to be volatile. The near - month contracts lead the rise, and the spot market is supported by pre - holiday stocking. However, factors such as reserve grain release, imported corn, and substitutes suppress price increases [2]. - Soybean Meal: The market is in a volatile and bearish trend. Weakness in US soybeans, lower import costs, and expected improvement in China - Canada relations contribute to the decline. A double - selling strategy is recommended [2]. - Edible Oils: The market is volatile. BMD palm oil dropped due to Indonesia's cancellation of the B50 plan, but export demand from major consumer countries limited the decline. A strategy of selling put options is suggested [2]. - Eggs: The market will continue to be in a volatile adjustment pattern. Spot prices are rising, and the narrowing of breeding losses is not conducive to effective capacity reduction in the long - term [2]. - Pigs: The market shows a volatile trend. The futures contract may continue to rebound in the short - term, but high - price acceptance from slaughtering enterprises is low, restricting price increases [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Market Information - Malaysia's palm oil data for December 2026: Production was 1.83 million tons, a 5.46% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.3165 million tons, an 8.52% month - on - month increase; apparent demand was 331,000 tons, slightly down from the previous month; and inventory was 3.05 million tons. The data was relatively neutral compared to expectations. Production in January - February is expected to decline seasonally, and the high - inventory inflection point may occur. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's export LEVY increase and the US RVO policy [4]. 3.1 Contract Spreads - The report presents contract spreads of various agricultural products including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific spread analysis is provided [5][6][8][9][12]. 3.2 Contract Basis - The report shows the contract basis of multiple agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, with no detailed basis analysis [14][15][18][20][25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Group 2: Core View of the Report - On January 14th, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,755 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.34%. The position decreased by 7,380 lots to 235,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan remained stable at 9,628 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 95 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 48,945 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 1.46%. The position decreased by 405 lots to 48,439 lots. The price of N-type re - fed silicon material from Baichuan dropped to 54,750 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 54,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 5,805 yuan/ton. Large factories in Xinjiang have entered the maintenance period. Silicon factories are hedging at high prices and actively selling to spot - futures traders. The manufacturers' inventory is gradually transferred to the intermediate links, and the hidden inventory increases. Recently, the cost side has been relatively stable with minor fluctuations. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, maintaining a fluctuating trend. There have been frequent news of anti - involution and industry self - discipline. Due to the pressure of logistics shutdown in Xinjiang before the Spring Festival, the production areas have started pre - festival rush operations, resulting in concentrated warrant registrations, and the over - speculative sentiment has cooled down. The upside premium space of polysilicon is limited [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,635 yuan/ton on January 13th to 8,755 yuan/ton on January 14th, up 120 yuan/ton. The prices of various spot grades remained stable, and the spot premium narrowed from 215 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 12 to 11,140 (daily), the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 3,285 tons to 54,440 tons (weekly), the Huangpu Port inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 58,000 tons (weekly), the Tianjin Port inventory remained unchanged at 80,000 tons (weekly), the Kunming Port inventory remained unchanged at 52,000 tons (weekly), the industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 267,850 tons (weekly), and the total social inventory of industrial silicon remained unchanged at 457,850 tons [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 49,005 yuan/ton on January 13th to 48,945 yuan/ton on January 14th, down 60 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades remained stable, and the spot premium widened from 5,745 yuan/ton to 5,805 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 40 to 4,500 (daily), the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 1.2 tons to 13.29 tons (weekly), the polysilicon factory inventory increased by 0.4 tons to 31.18 tons (weekly), and the total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.4 tons to 31.2 tons [4] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 14,000 yuan/ton, the price of raw rubber remained stable at 14,800 yuan/ton, the price of 107 - glue remained stable at 14,500 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton [4] 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][11] 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][16] 2.3 Inventory - Charts show the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventories of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, the weekly inventories of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC [18][19][21] 2.4 Cost - Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of aluminum alloy [24][26][28] 3. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metal team of Everbright Futures Research Institute includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and achievements in the field of non - ferrous metal research [34][35]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three sectors (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Core Views - The cotton market lacks positive drivers and faces pressure from downstream transmission and internal - external price differentials in the short term. In the long term, its upward potential depends on policy implementation [2][3] - The sugar market is in a state of global surplus in the 25/26 season. Although the short - term trade flow is tight, the medium - term outlook is bearish. The long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Currently, domestic sugar is in a state of supply increase, and the short - to - medium - term price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5][6] - The pulp market has continuous overseas supply disruptions. With the expectation of pre - Spring Festival restocking, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,810 yuan/ton yesterday, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,717 yuan/ton, up 217 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 907, up 167 from the previous day; the national average price of 3128B cotton was 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 1160, up 137 from the previous day. From January 5th to 11th, the number of ginning mills in Xinjiang that ended processing increased, and the processing volume continued to decline. The average purchase price of inland seed cotton was 6.78 yuan/kg, down 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of January 11th, 1096 cotton processing enterprises nationwide had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.784 million tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated on the market, with high supply pressure and weak global textile consumption. The ICE U.S. cotton is expected to be under pressure in the short term, but has limited downward space in the long term. Domestically, China's cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and the commercial inventory is seasonally rising. Although the pre - festival stocking by yarn mills and traders is active, downstream orders and product sales have decreased, and the inventory in the industrial chain, especially at the grey fabric end, has increased significantly. For the whole year, domestic cotton consumption has increased due to the expansion of yarn spindle capacity, and the supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of inventory tightening at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Be vigilant against the risk of high - level callbacks in the short term. The long - term upward space depends on the implementation of relevant policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5299 yuan/ton yesterday, up 46 yuan/ton (+0.88%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 + 71, down 36 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 - 69, down 46 from the previous day. In the first half of December, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.894 million tons (-32.83%); the sugar production was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 102,000 tons (-28.76%) [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in a surplus in the 25/26 season. In the short term, the tight trade flow in the first quarter may support the raw sugar price. In the medium term, the surplus pattern will suppress the market. In the long term, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and there are still uncertainties in the weather in 2026 and the planting area in Thailand. In China, sugar production has increased for the third consecutive year, and the pre - festival stocking demand may support the price. However, the import pressure is high, and the amount of syrup has not decreased significantly [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short - to - medium term, although the valuation is low, there is still a possibility of another bottom - seeking, but the overall downward space is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5494 yuan/ton yesterday, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 + 56, down 2 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Urals and Bratsk) was 5135 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 - 359, down 2 from the previous day. Yesterday, the imported wood pulp spot market stabilized, with weak trading volume [7] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, there have been continuous news of overseas pulp mill shutdowns and maintenance at the end of 2025. In terms of demand, the inventory of wood pulp in European ports continued to decline in November, and the demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation this year, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory has been at a historical high. However, the port inventory decreased slightly in December, and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity will generate marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to gradually stabilize [8] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. With continuous overseas supply disruptions and the expectation of pre - Spring Festival restocking, the short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean and peanut industries is neutral [3][6] 2. Core Views - For soybeans, the price is at an annual high, and its future trend depends on whether downstream stocking demand can be effectively released before and after the Spring Festival. If the demand starts as expected, the price may continue to rise; otherwise, market support may weaken [2] - For peanuts, the market shows a supply - demand surplus. In the short - term, prices are expected to remain weakly stable, and the focus should be on oil mill purchase dynamics and whether pre - festival stocking demand can bring improvement [5] 3. Summary by Commodity Soybeans Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Douyi 2605 contract was 4323.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 117, up 6 (32.14%) from the previous day. Northeast soybean spot prices were stable, with a strong bottom support due to scarce grain, farmers' reluctance to sell, and national reserve policies. Southern soybean spot prices were stable, but terminal demand was weak, leading to slow sales. Some enterprises tried to raise prices, but market acceptance was limited [1][2] Strategy - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [3] Peanuts Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Peanut 2603 contract was 7844.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 7982.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan/ton (-0.11%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK03 - 844.00, up 18.00 (-2.09%) month - on - month. The overall peanut market had a loose supply - demand pattern, with sufficient supply in the producing areas and weak terminal demand [3][4][5] Strategy - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [6]