Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On October 30, 2025, the A-share market and some futures markets showed various trends influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy news, and international events [1][4][6]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On October 30, A - share major indices collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.73% to 3986.90, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.16% to 13532.13, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.84% to 3263.02. The trading volume reached 24217 billion yuan, an increase of 1656 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index also adjusted, closing at 4709.91, a decrease of 37.93 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On October 30, the coke weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1814.9, a rise of 11.8. Supply tightened due to environmental protection and maintenance, while demand remained strong with high - level iron - making. A third round of price increases has started [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal weighted index fluctuated on October 30, closing at 1304.1 yuan, up 20.3. Supply was tight due to various factors, and the daily vehicle - passing number at the Mongolian coal 288 port recovered to over 1200 [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar stabilized and rose slightly on Wednesday after a large short - term decline. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased slightly on Thursday due to long - position liquidation. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 3490 million tons, a 19% year - on - year increase [4]. Rubber - Shanghai rubber adjusted on October 30 due to factors like the previous day's large increase, a decline in tire factory operating rates, and the realization of Sino - US trade negotiation benefits. The night - session also closed slightly lower [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, US soybeans showed strength on October 30 due to positive export expectations. Domestically, the M2601 contract closed at 2994 yuan/ton, up 0.84%. Imported soybean supply was abundant, but the price lacked continuous upward momentum [6]. Live Pigs - The LH2601 contract closed at 11880 yuan/ton on October 30, down 2.5%. The market was oversupplied, and the entry of secondary fattening could only change the supply rhythm [7]. Palm Oil - On October 30, palm oil fluctuated slightly after breaking through the 9000 - integer mark. The import price of near - term palm oil showed an increased inversion [7]. Shanghai Copper - Copper prices first rose and then fell on October 30. The short - term trend was high - level volatility, while the long - term was supported by fundamentals [8]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13640 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory decreased, and the 24% reciprocal tariff was suspended for another year [8]. Logs - The 2601 log contract opened at 788, closed at 786, and decreased by 104 lots on October 30. The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while that in Jiangsu decreased [9]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 2601 contract rose 0.38% to 802.5 yuan on October 30. The price was in an oscillating trend affected by shipping volume, production, and macro - sentiment [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt 2601 contract fell 0.4% to 3254 yuan on October 30. The price followed the cost of crude oil and was in an oscillating state [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market has weak demand support in the short - term due to high supply, low downstream alumina prices, and shrinking industry profits. However, there may be support in the medium - to long - term as the demand procurement cycle approaches and there may be concentrated stocking in the fourth quarter and more alumina production in the first quarter of next year [1]. - The PVC market is expected to continue the logic of a lackluster peak season. The supply has returned to a high level as some maintenance enterprises resumed production this week, while domestic downstream demand remains low, and the cost side provides only bottom - line support [1]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the short - term supply is stable with some plant overhauls offset by toluene and xylene supplements. The demand has strengthened slightly but the overall expectation is weak, and the cost support from oil prices is limited [2]. - For PTA, the spot basis is weak due to increased device loads and new production, and the expected rebound is under pressure [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the upward momentum is weakening due to port inventory changes, refinery maintenance, and falling oil prices. The far - month supply - demand structure is weak, and there is significant upward pressure [2]. - For short - fiber, the supply is high, the demand has improved marginally but the downstream's willingness to chase price increases is low. The cost support is limited, and the price is expected to face pressure in the rebound, although it is relatively stronger than raw materials due to low inventory [2]. - For bottle - chips, the demand is in the traditional off - season, and it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply of pure benzene in China is abundant with device restarts and new capacity expectations. The demand support is limited as most downstream products are in the red and some secondary - downstream inventories are high. The overall supply - demand expectation is loose, and the price drive is limited [5]. - Styrene is under pressure from inventory and industry profits. Although there are more planned and unplanned device shutdowns, new production from some plants maintains supply pressure. The demand support is limited as downstream industries mainly make rigid purchases due to high finished - product inventories. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure [5]. Methanol - The port methanol market is under significant pressure due to high inventory and weak demand, resulting in a decline in both price and basis. The inland market has weak sales as producers offer discounts and downstream buyers are hesitant. The demand side is weak as multiple MTO units reduce loads and plan more maintenance. The short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and overseas gas restriction expectations [7][8]. Polyolefins - For PP, the supply recovery is slow due to more unplanned maintenance. For PE, the maintenance is peaking, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand side has improved with rising downstream operating rates, especially in the agricultural film sector. Both inventories are decreasing. The 01 contract still has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may offer long - term low - buying opportunities [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda Prices - The price of Shandong 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged on October 30 compared to October 29. The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.9% [1]. - Among futures, SH2509 increased by 0.4%, SH2601 decreased by 1.9%, V2509 decreased by - 0.3%, and V2601 decreased by - 0.2% [1]. Supply - The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 0.1% to 85.6% on October 24 compared to October 17, and the Shandong sample operating rate increased by 3.2% to 86.6%. The total PVC operating rate decreased by 1.9% to 73.7% [1]. Demand - The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda, such as the viscose staple fiber industry, remained unchanged, while the printing and dyeing industry's operating rate increased by 0.8%. For PVC, the operating rates of downstream products such as pipes and profiles increased, and the pre - sales volume increased by 14.4% [1]. Inventory - The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong decreased by 3.8% and 8.1% respectively. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 7.4%, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.3% [1]. Polyester Industry Upstream Prices - PX futures 2512 decreased by 0.8%, PX12 - PX01 decreased by 1.7%, and the PX - crude oil spread decreased by 0.5% on October 30 compared to October 29 [2]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - The cash flow of FDY150/96 increased by - 0.5%, the polyester bottle - chip processing fee increased by 5.3%, and the bottle - chip futures PR2601 price decreased by 1.0% [2]. Operating Rates - The PTA operating rate increased by 2.1% to 78.8%, the MEG comprehensive operating rate decreased by 5.0% to 73.3%, and the direct - spinning short - fiber operating rate remained unchanged at 94.3% [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (December) increased by 0.1%, WTI crude oil (December) increased by 0.1%, and CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.3% on October 30 compared to October 29 [5]. Product Prices and Spreads - The pure benzene East - China spot price decreased by 0.4%, the styrene East - China spot price decreased by 1.2%, and the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 36.0% [5]. Operating Rates - The domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 3.6% to 72.7%, the styrene operating rate decreased by 3.7% to 69.3%, and the downstream PS operating rate remained unchanged at 53.8% [5]. Inventory - The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.1% to 8.50 tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.7% to 19.30 tons [5]. Methanol Prices - MA2601 decreased by 2.17% to 2208 yuan/ton, MA2605 decreased by 1.59% to 2284 yuan/ton, and the port Taicang spot price decreased by 1.14% to 2175 yuan/ton on October 30 compared to October 29 [6]. Inventory - The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.36% to 37.606%, the port inventory decreased by 0.38% to 150.6 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.53% to 188.3% [7]. Operating Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.09% to 75.78%, the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 2.37% to 73.3%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.63% to 84.06% [8]. Polyolefins Prices - L2601 decreased by 0.58% to 7015, PP2601 decreased by 0.51% to 6651, and the East - China PP拉丝 spot price decreased by 0.76% to 6510 on October 30 compared to October 29 [10]. Operating Rates - The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.37% to 81.5%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.85% to 45.8%, the PP device operating rate decreased by 2.9% to 75.9%, and the PP powder device operating rate increased by 7.1% to 41.4% [10]. Inventory - The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 19.16% to 41.6 tons, the PE social inventory decreased by 0.04% to 54.5 tons, the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 6.80% to 59.56 tons, and the PP trader inventory decreased by 10.48% to 21.4 tons [10].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Oil prices are adjusting again, asphalt supply and demand are weak, and prices may fall again [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2601 opened at 3276 yuan/ton, closed at 3254 yuan/ton, with a high of 3281 yuan/ton, a low of 3247 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.40%, and a trading volume of 16.08 million lots; BU2512 opened at 3291 yuan/ton, closed at 3295 yuan/ton, with a high of 3295 yuan/ton, a low of 3260 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.4%, and a trading volume of 2.1 million lots [6] - Spot Market: In North China, asphalt spot prices fell; in South China, they rose slightly; in other regions, they were relatively stable. Crude oil and asphalt futures prices fluctuated downward, negatively affecting the spot market sentiment [6] - Supply: Some refineries have production reduction or suspension plans, but others are increasing production, and the overall operating load rate is expected to remain flat [6] - Demand: Demand is seasonally weakening. In the Northeast and Northwest, road projects are ending, and rigid demand is shrinking rapidly; in North China and Shandong, only key projects support demand, while small and medium - sized projects have low demand; in the South, construction is stable but demand is weak due to slow resource consumption. Lack of funds restricts project progress, and actual demand is weaker than expected [6] Group 5: Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3200 - 3620 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Rigid demand is seasonally declining, market sentiment is cautious and bearish, and some high - end quotes are falling [8] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3370 - 3580 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. Sinopec's production plan reduction boosts the market, but terminal demand growth is insufficient, and the market is cautious [8] Group 6: Data Overview - Data on asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, Shandong comprehensive profit, factory inventory, and warehouse receipts are presented, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][16][24]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The agricultural product market shows a mixed trend. Pigs, palm oil, corn, and jujubes are in a downward or weakening state, while soybeans, cotton, apples, eggs, and sugar are in an upward or stable state, each influenced by different supply - demand and technical factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Hog - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of hogs has fallen sharply and returned to a downward trend due to an increase in pig supply, a high total inventory in the breeding end, weak market demand, and strong alternative consumption [2]. - Technical analysis: The futures price has fallen below the 12,000 mark and is below the moving - average system. It is recommended to short lightly on rallies, with support at 11,700 and resistance at 12,000 [2]. (2) Soybean Meal - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of soybean meal has continued to rise. Sino - US economic and trade relations have improved, the cost of imported soybeans has increased, the downstream feed demand is in the peak season, and the oil mills have the intention to support prices [3]. - Technical analysis: The contract has broken through the 40 - day moving average upward, and it is recommended to hold light long positions, with support at 2,960 and resistance at 3,020 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of palm oil has continued to fall. The production in Malaysia and Indonesia has increased, the export growth has narrowed, the domestic inventory has accumulated, and the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia is uncertain [5]. - Technical analysis: The contract is below the moving - average system, and it is recommended to short lightly, with support at 8,758 and resistance at 8,900 [5]. (4) Cotton - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of cotton has adjusted slightly after rising first. Sino - US economic and trade relations have improved, but the ICE cotton futures price has fallen back. The domestic Xinjiang production area has had adverse weather, and the demand side has stable spinning mill start - up [7]. - Technical analysis: The contract has broken through the 40 - day moving average upward, and it is recommended to hold long positions, with support at 13,530 and resistance at 13,700 [7]. (5) Apple - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of apples has risen strongly. The expected output of new apples this year has decreased, the overall quality has declined, and the high - quality fruit is scarce. The market is worried about post - harvest storage quality and deliverable supply [9]. - Technical analysis: The contract is above the moving - average system, and it is recommended to hold light long positions, with support at 9,100 and resistance at 9,300 [9]. (6) Corn - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of corn has continued to decline in a volatile manner. Sino - US economic and trade relations have improved, which may lead to an increase in imported corn. The new domestic corn supply has increased seasonally, but there is also policy support [11]. - Technical analysis: The contract is below the moving - average system, and it is recommended to short lightly, with support at 2,100 and resistance at 2,120 [11]. (7) Jujube - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of jujubes has continued to fall sharply. New jujubes are about to be listed, and the inventory of old jujubes is high, resulting in sufficient supply [13]. - Technical analysis: The contract has reached a new low in more than three months, and it is recommended to hold short positions, with support at 10,170 and resistance at 10,400 [13]. (8) Egg - Market situation: The main 2512 contract of eggs has fluctuated narrowly after a sharp rise. The weather has cooled, which is conducive to egg storage and transportation. The demand for pickled products and holiday stock - up is expected to boost prices, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve [15]. - Technical analysis: The contract is above the 40 - day moving average, and it is recommended to hold light long positions, with support at 3,128 and resistance at 3,184 [15]. (9) Sugar - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of sugar has adjusted downward. The peak period of domestic sugar imports has passed, and the import pressure has decreased. However, the production of beet sugar in the north continues, and the production season of cane sugar is approaching, with an expected increase in production [17]. - Technical analysis: The contract has encountered resistance near the 40 - day moving average, but it is still in a rebound rhythm. It is recommended to hold long positions, with support at 5,468 and resistance at 5,500 [17].

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/10/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,842.00 | -10.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,550.00 | -44.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 513,200.00 | -6382.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 332,067.00 | +361.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -65,778.00 | +1556.00↑ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -41,551.00 | -8823.00↓ | | | SM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 48.00 | +10.00↑ | SF5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 98.00 | +10.00↑ | | SM | 仓单（日，张） | 8,100.00 | +8100.00↑ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 2,624.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 30, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1288.0, up 1.62%. On the spot side, the price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal in Tangshan was reported at 1460, equivalent to 1240 on the futures market. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. Fundamentally, the mine - end operating rate declined slightly for two consecutive weeks due to safety inspections, the inventory was neutral, the operating rate of coal washing plants declined this period, and the mid - and downstream replenished stocks, with the total inventory showing a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range shock operation [2]. - On October 30, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1786.5, up 0.59%. On the spot side, coking plants proposed a third price increase for coke. The Fed's rate cut and the meeting between Chinese and US leaders were finalized, and the market sentiment declined during the day. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the pig iron output continued its seasonal decline this period, with the pig iron output at 239.90 (-1.05 million tons), and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 41 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range shock operation driven by cost [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1288.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00; the closing price of the J main contract was 1786.50 yuan/ton, down 14.50. The JM futures contract position was 970861.00 lots, down 15149.00; the J futures contract position was 50050.00 lots, down 515.00. The net position of the top 20 contracts of coking coal was - 63853.00 lots, down 10014.00; the net position of the top 20 contracts of coke was - 5584.00 lots, down 544.00. The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 71.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 140.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50. The coking coal warehouse receipt was 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipt was 2070.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 1140.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1775.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00. The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 157.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00. The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00. The price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1760.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 232.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00; the basis of the J main contract was - 11.50 yuan/ton, up 69.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.50 million tons, down 0.20; the refined coal inventory was 284.40 million tons, down 5.20. The capacity utilization rate was 0.37%, down 0.00. The raw coal output was 41150.50 million tons, up 2100.80. The import volume of coal and lignite was 4600.00 million tons, up 326.00. The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 190.30, down 0.60. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 507.18 million tons, up 19.02; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 260.79 million tons, up 8.14. The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1029.70 million tons, up 32.33; the inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 58.64 million tons, up 1.35. The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 782.96 million tons, down 5.36; the inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 633.16 million tons, down 6.28. The available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises were 12.77 days, down 0.13; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 11.07 days, down 0.12 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00. The output of coking coal was 3696.86 million tons, down 392.52. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.47%, down 0.77. The profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was - 41.00 yuan/ton, down 28.00. The output of coke was 4255.60 million tons, down 4.10 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.73%, up 0.48; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.92%, down 0.39. The crude steel output was 7349.01 million tons, down 387.84 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - China's President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and issues of common concern [2]. - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1 [2]. - The Bank of Canada cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% [2]. - Some coking enterprises in Hebei and Shandong proposed a third price increase for coke on October 29, with a tamping increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton and a top - charging increase of 70 - 75 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on October 31 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations. The PX benefit will remain stable in the short - term, and attention should be paid to subsequent industry meetings. For PTA, if demand does not improve sustainably, the upward space will be limited. The PR market has sufficient supply and weak demand [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: As of October 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $60.48 per barrel, up 0.55%; Brent crude oil was $64.92 per barrel, up 0.81%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $571.13 per ton, up 0.44%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $681.00 per ton, up 0.22%. The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $818.00 per ton, up 0.49% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,636 yuan per ton, up 0.48%; the settlement price was 4,610 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,535 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The CCFEI price index of PTA (domestic) remained unchanged, while the external price index was $601.00 per ton, down 2.12% [1]. - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,652 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 6,614 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,451 yuan per ton, down 1.13% [1]. - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,726 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the settlement price was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35%; in the South China market, it was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,450 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; POY was 6,775 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; FDY68D remained unchanged at 6,950 yuan per ton; FDY150D remained unchanged at 6,700 yuan per ton; polyester staple fiber was 6,360 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; polyester chips remained unchanged at 5,605 yuan per ton; bottle - grade chips were 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35% [2]. Spread Information - On October 29, 2025, the PXN spread was $246.88 per ton, up 0.61%; the PX - MX spread was $137.00 per ton, up 1.86%. The TA near - far month spread was - 48 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan; the TA basis was - 101 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22 yuan. The PX basis was - 201 yuan per ton, a decrease of 108 yuan. The PR basis in the East China market was 14 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34 yuan; in the South China market, it was 54 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34 yuan [1]. Operating Conditions - As of October 29, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 80.09%, up 0.63%; the polyester factory load rate was 89.28%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 73.31%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.06%, up 0.20% [1]. Production and Sales Rates - On October 29, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 48.87%, down 13.63 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 43.57%, up 0.07 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 37.06%, down 20.55 percentage points [1]. Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton PTA device of Dushan Energy's No. 4 (design capacity) started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2]. Market Analysis - **PX**: Overnight crude oil was weak, and the oil price cooled down after horizontal adjustment. The domestic PX operating load remained high, and the PTA main suppliers' symposium was about to be held. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,652 yuan per ton. Market rumors about a refinery's shutdown had no follow - up, and overseas devices ran smoothly. The call for anti - involution in the industry had little impact on PX supply and demand in the short - term [2]. - **PTA**: The industry meeting boosted market sentiment. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,636 yuan per ton. The PTA market fluctuated narrowly, and the spot basis strengthened slightly under the expectation of production reduction. The new PTA device in East China started trial production, but the anti - involution expectation offset its impact. It may be difficult to coordinate a new production reduction plan, and the upward space will be limited without continuous demand improvement [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5710 - 5830 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, the market atmosphere was weak, and downstream purchasing willingness was low. The PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton. The supply of the bottle - chip market was relatively sufficient, and the demand was weak [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Slight rebound [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [1] Group 2: Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interest, spreads, inventory, and corporate profits [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,295, up 155 from T - 1; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,870, down 24 from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,879, up 62 from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,690, up 115 from T - 1 [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 616,000 tons, unchanged from T - 1; the electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 5,126.94, up 12.40 from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,906, down 1 from T - 1; the profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises was - 120, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 28, down 1 from T - 1; the total inventory of three places was 48,465, up 190 from T - 1 [1]. Other Information - **Comprehensive News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and will end balance - sheet reduction in December; South Korea promised to invest $350 billion in the US to get tariff preferences [3]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: 0; Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 0 [3]

1. Glass and Soda Ash 1.1 Investment Rating Not provided 1.2 Core View The supply - demand pattern of soda ash is still bearish, but previous phased negatives are mostly out. It's recommended to close out previous short positions, wait and see in the short - term, and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. For glass, the market has stabilized and rebounded recently, but the industry's supply - demand situation remains weak in the long - term [1]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in different regions remained unchanged, while futures prices of some contracts increased. The basis of some contracts decreased significantly [1]. - **Supply**: Soda ash's operating rate, weekly output, and float - glass daily melting volume increased, while photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventories and soda ash factory and delivery - warehouse inventories increased [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area all showed different degrees of change, mostly negative [1]. 2. Logs 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View Log futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Although the current price has cost support, there are expectations of weakening fundamentals in the future, including increased supply and weakening demand [3]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Log futures prices fluctuated, and some spot prices remained unchanged, while some in Rizhao Port decreased [3]. - **Supply**: The number of pre - arriving log ships and the arrival volume increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The total national coniferous log inventory decreased, and the daily average outbound volume increased [3]. 3. Natural Rubber 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View In the short - term, the Fed's hawkish stance on December interest - rate cuts may put pressure on rubber prices. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase. The price may run around 15,000 - 15,500 if raw material supply is difficult, and may decline further if supply goes smoothly [5]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Some spot and raw material prices remained unchanged, while some had small fluctuations. The basis and monthly spreads also changed [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in different countries and regions, tire production, exports, and tire factory operating rates all showed different degrees of change [5]. - **Inventory**: The bonded and general - trade inventory in the protected area decreased, while the futures inventory in the factory warehouse increased [5]. 4. Polysilicon 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View Polysilicon is mainly in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the establishment of the platform company and production control, as well as whether there is an increase in demand orders to support supply growth [7]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices decreased slightly, and futures prices increased and then fell back. The monthly spreads changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production, imports, exports, and net exports all showed different trends [7]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased [7]. 5. Industrial Silicon 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View Industrial silicon is expected to be in a low - level oscillation. Although supply increases put pressure on prices, there is also cost support below [8]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices remained unchanged, and futures prices increased. The basis and monthly spreads changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: National and regional industrial silicon production, operating rates, and production of downstream products all showed different trends [8]. - **Inventory**: Some regional factory inventories and social inventories decreased slightly, while non - warehouse - receipt inventories increased slightly [8].

Group 1 - The PVC futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract reaching a high of 4817.00 yuan/ton and a low of 4758.00 yuan/ton, resulting in a price increase of 1.31% [1] - Recent maintenance activities have impacted PVC production, with a slight decrease in capacity utilization, while downstream operating rates for pipes and profiles have shown a small increase [1] - Social inventory accumulation is slowing down, but inventory pressure remains high, with rising costs for the calcium carbide method and decreasing costs for the ethylene method [1] Group 2 - The current supply-demand imbalance for PVC continues, with limited downward price movement expected, while upward movement depends on improvements in the fundamental market [2] - Companies are facing declining comprehensive profits, with production levels at historical highs and weak domestic demand, leading to ongoing inventory pressure [2] - The cost side shows an increase in calcium carbide prices, while caustic soda remains stable, indicating a challenging environment for PVC pricing in the short term [2]