铝合金价格方面：2025-12-18保太民用生铝采购价格16500元/吨，机械生铝采购价格16800元/吨，价格环比昨 日变化-100元/吨。ADC12保太报价21100元/吨，价格环比昨日变化0元/吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-19 消费存韧性，现货贴水受贸易行为承压 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21730元/吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-140元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-30元/吨；中原A00铝价21620元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-60元/吨至-250元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21650元/吨，较上一交易日变化10元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-220元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-18日沪铝主力合约开于21970元/吨，收于21955元/吨，较上一交易日变化55元/吨，最 高价达22100元/吨，最低价达到21880元/吨。全天交易日成交188444手，全天交易日持仓294165手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-18，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存57.8万吨，较上一期变化-1.8万吨，仓单库存76212 吨 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-19 市场热情有所平复，多晶硅震荡回落 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-18，工业硅期货主力合约2605开于8570元/吨，最后收于8645元/吨，较前一日结算变化（135）元/吨，变 化（1.59）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓207780手，2025-12-17仓单总数为8815手，较前一日变化0手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9100-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。本周期货价格震荡偏强修复，但部分硅企报价出货意向仍 不强烈，下游用户以消化低价库存为主，市场成交量较上周转淡。供应端北方部分硅企有减产意向，目前减产尚 未落地开工率保持稳定，关注后续开工变化。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。SMM报道，有机硅周度排产较上周小幅波动， 12月上旬单体厂陆续有生产降幅，排产较 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-19 基本面维持疲软，市场上行驱动仍不足 市场分析 1、12月18日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2602合约下午收盘价2952元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨20元/吨，涨幅 0.68%；持仓224692手，环比下跌10773手，成交410415手，环比下跌93619手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2830—3270元/吨；华南，2750—3100元/吨； 华东，3100—3220元/吨。 虽然由于地缘担忧发酵，前日沥青盘面出现大幅反弹，但现实基本面依然疲软，且原料供应当前相对充裕，市场 上行驱动有限。现货方面，昨日山东地区沥青现货价格小幅上涨，华南地区沥青现货价格明显下跌，其余地区沥 青现货价格大体企稳。尽管昨日山东地区个别地方炼厂限量或停发，导致市场现货资源流通量有所减少，区域内 沥青现货价格窄幅上涨。但因为南方地区主营炼厂大幅度降价，利空沥青现货市场情绪，对盘面形成压制。 策略 单边：中性，等待底部信号明确，关注左侧逢低多机会，不宜追涨 跨品种：无 跨期：无 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For pure benzene, the peak of short - term arrivals in China has passed, the inventory accumulation rate has slowed but the absolute inventory level is still high. The price difference between the US and South Korea has been repaired to a relatively high level, but the overseas gasoline cracking spread has been continuously weakening, reducing the support of overseas oil blending for pure benzene. Domestic production has decreased due to low profits. In the downstream, attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of styrene, while non - styrene production remains weak, with CPL production at a low level this year and phenol and aniline production further declining [3] - For styrene, the decline rate of port inventory slowed down during the week, and the port basis continued to decline after reaching the peak. On one hand, it is related to the trading of styrene resumption, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Satellite Petrochemical. On the other hand, downstream pick - up has decreased. Downstream production has decreased again during the off - season, with EPS and PS production declining and ABS production fluctuating at a low level. There is still inventory pressure on EPS and ABS finished products [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene include the relationship between the pure benzene main contract basis and the futures price, the main contract basis, the spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts [8][11] - Figures related to styrene include the relationship between the styrene main contract basis and the main contract, the EB main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts [16][17] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Price Differences - Figures related to production costs and spreads include naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan [21] - Figures related to production profits include the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, the production profit of pure benzene imports, and the production profit of styrene imports [25][32] - Figures related to price differences between regions include the price differences between pure benzene FOB US Gulf, FOB South Korea, CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam; and the price differences between styrene FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [25][26][37] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory and Production Rates - For pure benzene, figures show the inventory in East China ports and the production rate [38] - For styrene, figures show the inventory in East China ports, commercial inventory in East China, factory inventory, and the production rate [41][43] IV. Styrene Downstream Production Rates and Production Profits - Figures show the production rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [51][53][56] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Production Rates and Production Profits - Figures show the production rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 conventional spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [62][66][72]

化工日报 | 2025-12-19 下游轮胎开工率环比下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15320元/吨，较前一日变动-70元/吨；NR主力合约12455元/吨，较前一日变动-115 元/吨；BR主力合约11040元/吨，较前一日变动-120元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15000元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14550元/吨，较前一 日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1845美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1765 美元/吨，较前一日变动-15美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10900元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10950元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月份，重卡销量11.3万辆，同比大增65%，收获同比"8连增"的同时，还创造了今年重卡市场最高月销量。 据中国汽车工业协会发布的最新数据显示，11月，我国汽车产销量分别完成353.2万辆和342.9万辆，环比分别增长 5.1%和3.2%，同比分别增长2.8%和3.4%。月度产量首次超过350万辆，创历 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-19 玻璃纯碱：宏观氛围偏暖，玻碱小幅反弹 市场分析 昨日玻璃期货震荡上行，盘面成交活跃。现货方面，整体偏弱运行，以低价刚需采购为主。据隆众数据显示：本 周浮法玻璃总库存5855.8万重箱，环比上涨0.57%。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，供需矛盾依旧存在。玻璃刚需依旧缺乏起色，且伴随淡季 到来，刚需仍有进一步回落预期，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货震荡上行，成本支撑发力。现货方面，市场报价弱稳，整体涨跌不一，以刚需采购为主。 据隆众数据显示：本周纯碱产量72.14万吨，环比减少1.9%；库存149.93万吨，环比增加0.33%。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。库存高位震荡，且 考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场情绪谨慎，钢价持续震荡 风险 宏观及房地产政策、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等 双硅：钢材消 ...

油料日报 | 2025-12-19 豆一供紧需弱价格持稳，花生预计稳中趋弱 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4041.00元/吨，较前日变化-49.00元/吨，幅度-1.20%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01+159，较前日变化+49，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北地区大豆基层农户手中存粮较少，普遍存在较强的惜售观望情绪，期待价格进一步上涨， 导致市场上实际可流通粮源较为紧张。受此影响，部分大型加工企业收购价格呈现上涨趋势。同时中储粮入市收 购的政策进一步明确了市场价格的底部区间，为大豆价格提供了有力的底部支撑。在上述因素共同作用下，现货 市场行情表现偏强。现货方面：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.10元/斤，较前一日 平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦 市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.06元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41% 蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market sentiment is cautious, with steel prices continuing to fluctuate. The iron ore market has iron water production declining, and ore prices maintaining a volatile trend. The double - coke market sentiment is rising, with both futures and spot prices showing a small resonance. The thermal coal spot market maintains a downward trend, and the market sentiment is cautious [1][3][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,125 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,277 yuan/ton. The spot steel trading was generally weak, the basis shrank overall, and the national building materials trading volume was 102,203 [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Building materials production increased slightly, inventory continued to decline, and demand remained stable. Plate production declined slightly, but demand resilience remained. Short - term raw material disturbances were frequent, and attention should be paid to environmental protection, seasonal production cuts, demand and de - stocking changes, profit conditions, cost support, raw material replenishment, steel exports, and domestic policies [1] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price fluctuated. The 2605 contract closed at 777.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan or 1.63% from the previous settlement price. The spot price rose slightly, and the trading volume was 982,000 tons, a 18.17% increase from the previous day [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The port inventory showed an increasing trend, and the supply was relatively loose. The downstream finished product demand declined seasonally, the inventory pressure increased, the iron water production continued to decline, but the short - term production decline was beneficial to steel prices, and the market pessimism eased. Attention should be paid to the actual production cut rhythm of steel mills and the change in port inventory structure [3] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [4] Double - Coke - **Market Analysis**: The double - coke market led the rise in the black sector, with significant increases in the closing prices of the main contracts of coking coal and coke. The import volume of Mongolian coal decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The spot market followed the futures market, and the market sentiment improved [4] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply of coking coal increased slightly, but domestic mine production remained low. Downstream coke enterprises had low enthusiasm for replenishing inventory, and steel mills mainly made rigid procurement. Coke production declined slightly due to environmental protection, and demand was limited. In the future, iron water production is expected to decline seasonally, and supply is expected to be changeable due to policy disturbances. Attention should be paid to coking coal supply, warehouse receipt pressure, steel mill profits, and winter storage plans [4][5] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to have a volatile market, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [5] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices continued to be weak, and downstream procurement was on - demand. Some mines' sales improved after price cuts, and a few high - quality mines began to increase prices slightly. At the port, the market decline continued, with only sporadic transactions and strong price - bargaining. The port inventory was high, and the turnover rate was low, with the short - term decline expected to continue. The decline in the imported coal market narrowed, and the advantage of low - calorie coal became prominent [6] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Recently, coal prices have been weak due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and relatively high inventory. Some mines have completed their annual tasks, and future supply is difficult to improve significantly. In the long - term, attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and replenishment [6] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [6]

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 ＃summary＃ 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 每日报 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 18, 2025 - A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16% to 3876.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29% to 13053.97 points, and the Chi - Next Index dropped 2.17% to 3107.06 points, with a turnover of 1655.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 155.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4552.79, down 27.08 [2] 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index was strong, closing at 1697.5, up 89.8. Spot supply increased slightly, and steel mills' coke inventory rose significantly. As of December 11, 45 sample steel mills' coke inventory was 231.6 million tons, up 9.5% from mid - November. Steel mills' consumption decreased due to more blast furnace overhauls and declining hot metal production [2][4] - Coking coal: The weighted index was trending stronger, closing at 1107.4 yuan, up 62.5. As of December 15, the price had dropped by over 200 yuan/ton. Coking plants' profit margins increased, but they faced inventory pressure due to weak seasonal demand from steel mills and tight railway transportation at the end of the year [3][5] 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract declined on December 18. The US Department of Agriculture predicted that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season would increase by 8.3 million tons (4.6%) to 1.89318 billion tons, consumption would increase by 1.1% to a record 1.77921 billion tons, and the ending inventory would decline by 2.9% to 41.188 million tons [5][6] 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai Rubber futures closed slightly lower on December 18. Thailand's southern rainfall was forecast to decrease from December 17 - 23, and the spot price in Southeast Asia declined. Tire factories'开工 rate decreased, with semi - steel tire sample enterprises' capacity utilization at 70.01% (down 0.13 percentage points month - on - month and 8.67 percentage points year - on - year) and full - steel tire sample enterprises' at 63.61% (down 0.94 percentage points month - on - month and up 3.72 percentage points year - on - year) [6] 2.4 Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans continued to weaken. As of November 27, US soybean export sales were 1.116 million tons. Brazil's soybean planting was almost finished with good weather. Brazil's December soybean export was expected to be 3.57 million tons. In the domestic market, the M2605 main contract closed at 2747 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The supply of imported soybeans was abundant, and the soybean meal inventory was high [6] 2.5 Live Pigs - The LH2603 main contract closed at 11435 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The supply of live pigs was abundant due to high slaughtering willingness. With the approaching of the southwest curing peak, short - term consumption demand increased [6] 2.6 Palm Oil - The palm oil futures price rebounded on December 18 but faced strong resistance. Malaysia lowered its January reference price of crude palm oil and the export tariff to 9.5% [6][7] 2.7 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai Copper futures oscillated at a high level on December 18. The supply side had low copper concentrate processing fees and limited increase in smelting production, while the demand side was affected by high prices, with social inventory accumulating slightly [7] 2.8 Cotton - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13965 yuan/ton at night on December 18. China imported 120,000 tons of cotton in November 2025, up 9.4% year - on - year, and 890,000 tons from January - November, down 64% year - on - year [7] 2.9 Iron Ore - The Iron Ore 2605 main contract rose 1.63% to 777.5 yuan on December 18. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased, the arrival volume rebounded, and the port inventory continued to accumulate, with the iron ore market in a supply - increase and demand - weak pattern [7] 2.10 Asphalt - The Asphalt 2602 main contract rose 0.68% to 2952 yuan on December 18. The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory reduction slowed down, and the market was in a supply - demand double - weak pattern [7] 2.11 Logs - The Logs 2603 main contract closed at 778 on December 18. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Attention should be paid to spot - end support, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [7][8] 2.12 Steel - On December 18, rb2605 was at 3125 yuan/ton and hc2605 was at 3277 yuan/ton. The coking coal production rebounded, and the steel market was in a weak balance in the off - season. With the rebound of raw material prices, steel prices were expected to oscillate slightly stronger [8] 2.13 Alumina - The ao2601 contract was at 2553 yuan/ton on December 18. The alumina market had a supply surplus, and the inventory was at a high level. Some producers' maintenance or exit led to a technical rebound in futures prices, but the overall trend was still weak [9] 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - The al2602 contract was at 21955 yuan/ton on December 18. High prices suppressed terminal demand, and the actual spot trading was insufficient. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory remained at a historical low due to transportation problems in the northwest [9] 3. Investment Suggestions - For soybean meal, track South American weather and soybean arrival volume [6] - For live pigs, focus on the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughtering rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the progress of curing consumption [6] - For logs, pay attention to spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7][8]