Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is predicted to decline from its high level. There are signs of a bottom - up rebound in demand data, and there is an expectation of increased demand during the peak season from September to October [1]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils, have generally declined. The spreads between different contracts and regions also show certain changes. For example, the rebar 10 - 1 spread declined, while the hot - rolled coil 10 - 1 spread strengthened [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The prices of billets decreased, and the costs and profits of different steel - making processes and regions also changed. For instance, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 38 [1]. - **Production**: The daily average hot - metal output slightly increased by 0.1 to 240.8. The production of the five major steel products increased by 0.7% to 878.1, with rebar production decreasing by 2.6% and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 3.1% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 1.8% to 1441.0, the rebar inventory increased by 3.4% to 607.0, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.1% to 361.4 [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 18.3% to 11.1, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 2.6% to 853.0. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The iron ore futures market is expected to have a rebound basis, but the current fundamentals lack a strong upward - driving force. It is recommended to buy on dips and engage in the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [3]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices of various iron ore varieties decreased, while the basis of the 01 contract for some varieties increased significantly. The spreads between different contracts also changed [3]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 2.7% to 3315.8, and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 3.4% to 2393.3. However, the subsequent arrival average is expected to increase [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was slightly up at 240.8, and the average daily port clearance volume decreased by 2.7% to 325.7. The monthly national pig iron and crude steel production decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3% to 13798.68, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.8% to 9065.5, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% to 20.0 [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For coke, it is recommended to buy on dips for the 2601 contract and engage in the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage. For coking coal, the same strategy is recommended [6]. Summary by Catalog Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also changed. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 [6]. - **Supply**: Due to the successful price increase, the coking profit improved, and the coking enterprise's operation rate increased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The blast - furnace hot - metal output fluctuated at a high level, but it is expected to decline slightly in August due to the Tangshan production limit [6]. - **Inventory**: The coking plant's inventory started to accumulate, the port inventory slightly decreased, and the steel mill's inventory decreased. The overall inventory was at a medium level [6]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads between different contracts changed. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 5 [6]. - **Supply**: The coal mine's operation rate increased month - on - month, but the import coal price followed the futures down, and the downstream's restocking was cautious [6]. - **Demand**: The coking operation rate increased slightly, the downstream blast - furnace hot - metal output fluctuated at a high level, and the restocking demand slowed down. The hot - metal output is expected to decline at the end of August [6]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine, port, and steel mill's inventory increased slightly, while the coal - washing plant and coking plant's inventory decreased. The overall inventory decreased slightly [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but there are still some regional pressures. The domestic soybean market has a high inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the international market is expected to be in a state of inventory accumulation, and the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend. The palm oil in Malaysia is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, while the domestic vegetable oil has a relatively stable fundamental situation. The US corn may have a rebound space, and the domestic corn price is expected to decline. The pig price is expected to decline slightly, and the peanut market is expected to be stable with new - season supply increasing. The egg market has obvious supply - side pressure, and the apple market is expected to have a wide - range shock. The cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][6][10][18][24][30][34][44][52][61]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1062.75 cents/bu, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.41% to 293.4 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: As of August 24, US soybean crop good - excellent rate was 69%. As of August 21, the US soybean export inspection volume was 382,806 tons. The expected current - year soybean import volume increased by 120 tons to 1.5 million tons. As of August 22, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%. Soybean inventory increased by 0.31% to 6.8253 million tons, and soybean meal inventory increased by 3.8% to 1.0533 million tons [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but Brazilian and Argentine soybeans have price or export pressure. The domestic soybean market has a high inventory accumulation pressure [4][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, buy soybean and rapeseed meal at low prices for far - month contracts; for arbitrage, expand the MRM05 spread; for options, buy call options [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: ICE US raw sugar price fluctuated, with the main contract down 0.05 (- 0.3%) to 16.39 cents/lb. London white sugar price rose in the previous trading day, with the main contract up 3.4 (0.7%) to 486.3 dollars/ton [8]. - **Relevant Information**: As of August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased, and the waiting sugar volume was 2.9169 million tons. Southern China's sugar quotes were stable with average transactions [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, but the actual sugar production is lower than expected, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Domestically, the domestic sugar price is affected by the international price and is expected to follow the international trend [10]. - **Position Suggestion**: For single - side trading, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, consider selling out - of - the - money strangles [11][12][13]. Oilseeds - **Market Conditions**: CBOT US soybean oil main price fell 0.94% to 54.84 cents/lb, and BMD Malaysian palm oil main price fell 0.24% to 4482 ringgit/ton [15]. - **Relevant Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9%. In July, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume increased by 13.13%. As of August 22, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased by 5.70%, and the soybean oil inventory increased by 3.79% [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, but the Indonesian price provides support. The domestic soybean oil pressure is released, and the vegetable oil inventory is decreasing [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy on dips; for arbitrage, expand the P15 spread after a correction; for options, wait and see [19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Conditions**: CBOT corn futures fell, with the December main contract down 0.5% to 412.5 cents/bu [21]. - **Relevant Information**: As of August 23, Brazil's second - crop corn harvest rate was 94.8%. The US corn export inspection volume increased. The domestic corn price was weak [22][23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US corn may rebound, and the domestic corn price is expected to decline [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy the December corn on dips and go long on the 01 corn at the bottom; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [25][27]. Pig - **Relevant Information**: The pig price fluctuated, with some regions falling. Piglet and sow prices changed, and the pork wholesale price was stable [29]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market supply pressure increased, and the price is expected to decline slightly [30]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, buy far - month contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see [31]. Peanut - **Relevant Information**: The peanut price was weakly falling, the oil mill's demand was low, and the peanut oil price was strong. The peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The peanut market is stable, but the new - season supply is expected to increase [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short 11 and 01 peanuts on rallies, wait and see currently, and go long on 05 peanuts lightly; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell pk601 - C - 8200 options [35][37][38]. Egg - **Relevant Information**: The egg price was stable, the in - production laying hen inventory increased, the egg sales volume decreased, and the inventory increased [40][42][43]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply - side pressure is obvious, and the price is expected to decline. Consider shorting on rallies [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategies provided in the given text. Apple - **Relevant Information**: The apple cold - storage inventory decreased, the import and export volumes changed, the early - maturing apple price was polarized, and the storage profit decreased [47][51][52]. - **Trading Logic**: The current inventory is low, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to have a wide - range shock [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short on rallies; for arbitrage, short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [49]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Conditions**: ICE US cotton fell, with the main contract down 0.62 (0.91%) to 67.38 cents/lb [57]. - **Relevant Information**: As of August 24, the US cotton good - excellent rate was 54%. The 2025 cotton import tariff - rate quota for processing trade was 200,000 tons. As of mid - August, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was at a low level [58]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term tariff impact is weakened, the supply is tight, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is expected to be slightly stronger [59][61]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The prices of non - ferrous metals are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand changes, policy expectations, and macro - economic indicators. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - **Market sentiment and fundamentals**: Market sentiment was affected by actual economic data. Domestic refined copper output in August will remain at a record level, and the impact of maintenance in September and October may increase. The production of recycled copper is restricted, and the social inventory of SHFE copper has decreased. However, except for copper foil orders in power grids and integrated circuits, the market is mainly affected by seasonal factors [1]. - **Price trend**: There may be resistance when the price rises again. First, pay attention to the resistance at the upper level, with the focus in the range of 79,600 - 80,000 yuan. Notice the opportunity to buy put options at 82,000 yuan for the 2510 contract [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The price of alumina is in a high - level range historically, and the industry inventory continues to increase. The spot trading is weak, but the cost support limits the downward space. High - selling and low - buying are recommended in the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [1]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is stable at 4,000 tons, with a small amount of production resuming in Guizhou and Guangxi. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased, and the exports of aluminum products have changed. The social inventory of aluminum has decreased, and the processing fee has remained stable. The price of SHFE aluminum may be under pressure in the 20,500 - 21,000 yuan area [1]. Lead - **Price trend**: Last week, the price was mainly driven by the fundamentals of supply and demand. The market showed a resonance of spot and futures. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - **Market situation**: The inventory of zinc is at a high level, and the 0 - 3 month backwardation is large. The downstream demand is affected by factors such as transportation and consumption policies. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Stainless steel**: The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down. New tariff regulations may impact exports. The inventory is at a certain level, and it is recommended to actively intervene in short - selling [1]. Tin - **Market situation**: The price of tin has shown a certain volatility. The supply of domestic tin mines is tight, and the consumption shows seasonal characteristics. The inventory has decreased, and the price center of gravity may rise. The price is expected to be in the range of 265,000 - 280,000 yuan, and the high - level area is above 275,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The market sentiment is uncertain, and the fundamentals have limited guidance on the price. A long - biased thinking is recommended with good risk control [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Market situation**: The price is under pressure at the 9,000 yuan/ton level. The supply and demand both increase, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 9,000 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - **Market situation**: The policy has not met expectations, and the market will continue to fluctuate [1]. Recommended Strategies - Hold the high - short strategy for SHFE aluminum with a stop - loss at 21,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Buy put options for SHFE copper 2500 contract. Grasp the opportunity of put options [1]. - Allocate long positions for the silver 2512 contract, with a target price of 1050 and a stop - loss of 910% [1].

Report on the Steel Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core View - The price of steel has risen again, with the spread between the October and January contracts of rebar decreasing and that of hot-rolled coils strengthening. The spread between coils and rebar is expected to decline from its high. Total apparent demand showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding last week but remained at an off - peak level. Steel prices are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to try long positions, with reference levels of 3140 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3380 yuan for rebar [1]. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3310 yuan/ton, 3280 yuan/ton, and 3420 yuan/ton respectively; hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3430 yuan/ton, 3380 yuan/ton, and 3420 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar was 3344 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils was - 41 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, and the profit of North China hot - rolled coils was 15 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output was 240.8 tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The output of five major steel products was 878.1 tons, an increase of 6.4 tons or 0.7%. The inventory of five major steel products was 1441.0 tons, an increase of 25.1 tons or 1.8% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 11.1 tons, an increase of 1.7 tons or 18.3%. The apparent demand for five major steel products was 853.0 tons, an increase of 22.0 tons or 2.6% [1]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core View - The 2601 contract of iron ore showed an oscillating upward trend. The global shipment volume of iron ore decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined, but the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to recover. The pig iron output remained at a high level, and downstream apparent demand rebounded. It is recommended to switch to long positions on dips and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [3]. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines was 807.7 yuan/ton, a 1.9% increase; the 01 contract basis of Carajás fines was 20.7 yuan/ton, a 520.4% increase [3]. Supply and Demand Indicators - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2393.3 tons, a decrease of 83.3 tons or 3.4%; the weekly global shipment volume was 3315.8 tons, a decrease of 90.8 tons or 2.7% [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 11.2 tons or 0.1% compared to Monday; the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 70.9 tons or 0.8% [3]. Report on the Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core View - Coke futures showed a strong rebound, and the seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. Due to supply - demand tightness, downstream steel mills still had restocking demand. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coke on dips and recommend the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. Coking coal futures also rebounded strongly, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coking coal on dips and recommend the same arbitrage [5]. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) was 1610 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 09 contract of coke was 1627 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, a 0.1% increase; the weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a 0.0% increase [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory was 888.6 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons or 0.1%; the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 966.4 tons, a decrease of 10.5 tons or 1.1% [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Overnight, US soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal futures may adjust and fluctuate; Dalian soybean futures are expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - On August 25, CBOT soybean futures declined due to weakened expectations of Chinese demand and the evaluation of US refineries' biodiesel exemption applications. The US soybean good-to-excellent rate as of August 25 was 69%, up from 68% last week and 67% in the same period last year [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 3,992 yuan/ton during the day session, up 3 yuan (+0.08%), and 3,991 yuan/ton at night, down 7 yuan (-0.18%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,117 yuan/ton during the day session, up 23 yuan (+0.74%), and 3,112 yuan/ton at night, up 2 yuan (+0.06%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1,047.75 cents/bushel, down 10.5 cents (-0.99%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 290.6 dollars/short ton, down 0.4 dollars (-0.14%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 3,080 - 3,130 yuan/ton, flat to up 20 yuan compared to the previous day; in East China, it was 3,000 - 3,080 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or flat; in South China, it was 3,030 - 3,050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was not available on the previous trading day, compared to 13.1 million tons two trading days ago; the inventory was not available, compared to 97.4 million tons two trading days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 25, CBOT soybean futures declined as industry insiders lost confidence in Chinese buyers purchasing US soybeans. The US - China trade tension and the evaluation of US refineries' biodiesel exemption applications contributed to the decline [3]. - The US Department of Agriculture's crop weekly report showed that as of August 25, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, up from 68% last week and 67% in the same period last year [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 was 0, indicating neutrality for the day - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers individual ratings for various futures varieties, including "Short - term adjustment", "Short - term bullish", and "Cautiously bullish" [2] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, such as soymeal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs. It provides short - term and long - term outlooks, market influencing factors, and trading strategies for each variety [2] Summary by Variety Soymeal - **Price and Inventory**: As of August 15, 2025, the national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on -

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: With no new fundamental drivers, wait for a pullback to go long [2][4]. - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and it will fluctuate and consolidate at a high level [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Overnight, U.S. soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal may adjust and fluctuate [2][11]. - Soybean: It will fluctuate weakly [2][11]. - Corn: It will run in a fluctuating manner [2][14]. - Sugar: It will trade in a narrow range [2][18]. - Cotton: Pay attention to the situation of new crops and the influence of external market sentiment [2][21]. - Eggs: Sentiment for the far - end contracts is weak [2][26]. - Live pigs: Spot performance is below expectations, and go short on rallies [2][28]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [2][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil futures had a daytime closing price of 9,488 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.23%, and a night - session closing price of 9,542 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.57%. Soybean oil futures had a daytime closing price of 8,536 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.52%, and a night - session closing price of 8,514 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. Spot prices of palm oil in Guangdong were 9,620 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,720 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 were 1,141,661 tons, a 10.9% increase from the same period last month. The U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate as of August 24 was 69%, higher than expected. Brazil's daily average soybean export volume in the first four weeks of August increased by 24% year - on - year [5][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2511 had a daytime closing price of 3,992 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan (+0.08%), and a night - session closing price of 3,991 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (-0.18%). DCE soybean meal 2601 had a daytime closing price of 3,117 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan (+0.74%), and a night - session closing price of 3,112 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan (+0.06%) [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 25, CBOT soybeans fell due to weakened expectations of Chinese demand. As of August 25, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69% [13]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,202 yuan/ton, up 0.23% during the day and 2,209 yuan/ton, up 0.32% at night. The closing price of C2511 was 2,154 yuan/ton, down 0.14% during the day and 2,158 yuan/ton, up 0.19% at night [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port - collection prices were stable, and Guangdong Shekou prices increased by 10 yuan/ton. Imported sorghum and barley had different price quotes [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.4 cents/pound, down 0.08. The mainstream spot price was 5,980 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures main - contract price was 5,688 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation has weakened. China's sugar imports in July were 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons [18]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of CF2601 was 14,120 yuan/ton, up 0.64% during the day and 14,145 yuan/ton, up 0.18% at night. ICE U.S. cotton 12 closed at 67.38 cents/pound, down 0.91% [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading remained stable, with textile mills making rigid - demand purchases. The cotton yarn market had normal trading, and the grey - cloth market was flat [22]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2509 was 2,951 yuan/500 kg, up 1.62%, and egg 2601 was 3,383 yuan/500 kg, down 1.34% [26]. - **No additional macro and industry news provided**. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan's spot price was 13,780 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 13,550 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 15,140 yuan/ton. The closing price of live pig 2509 was 13,795 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [29]. - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, demand growth was limited, and spot performance was below expectations. The purchasing sentiment for piglets declined, and attention should be paid to the downward shift of the far - end price center [31]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of PK510 was 7,990 yuan/ton, down 0.17% [33]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In most peanut - producing areas, prices were basically stable. New peanuts are expected to be listed around late September [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton price is rising due to the continuous reduction of commercial inventory, the approaching peak consumption season, and the improvement of spinning mill orders. The corn price is falling significantly because of sufficient supply, including continuous auctions of imported corn, the listing of spring corn in some areas, and the strong expectation of a new - corn harvest. The egg price is weak with high chicken inventory and poor demand. The soybean meal price rebounds due to the strong external market. Other products such as palm oil, soybean oil, etc., also show different trends based on their respective supply - demand and market factors [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Cotton prices are rising as commercial inventories are being depleted, and the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak is approaching, with improved orders for spinning mills. Corn prices are dropping sharply because of continuous auctions of imported corn, the listing of spring corn in some areas, wheat's continuous substitution for feed use, and a strong expectation of a new - corn harvest. Egg prices remain weak due to high chicken inventory and unmet peak - season demand [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton opened and closed higher, reaching a two - week high. The continuous decline of commercial inventory, the approaching consumption peak, and increased orders from European and American countries for Christmas have led to an increase in the spinning mill's operating rate and improved willingness to replenish cotton. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to close short positions and hold light long positions, with support at 14000 and resistance at 14200 [2]. 3.2.2 Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn closed significantly lower, with sufficient supply. Continuous auctions of imported corn, the listing of spring corn, wheat substitution, and weak downstream demand have pressured the price. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 2140 and resistance at 2167 [3]. 3.2.3 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal rebounded after two days of adjustment, boosted by the strong external market. Strong US soybean export data and the rise of US soybean oil have driven up the price. Although the domestic de - stocking period has not arrived, market transactions have improved. Technically, the trend is volatile. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 3096 and resistance at 3134 [5]. 3.2.4 Egg - The main 2510 contract of eggs failed to rebound and continued to decline, pressured by high supply. High chicken inventory, increased production - link inventory days, and the release of cold - storage eggs have led to large supply pressure and weak demand. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3040 [7]. 3.2.5 Pig - The main 2511 contract of pigs failed to rebound and closed lower again, due to sufficient supply. Although the state's frozen - pork purchase has boosted market sentiment, the supply - demand situation remains unchanged. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [9]. 3.2.6 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil first rose and then fell, with high - level fluctuations. The increase in Malaysian palm oil exports has promoted the price increase, but high prices may limit future demand. Domestically, the import cost has risen, and it maintains rigid demand. Technically, it is still in a strong position. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 9516 and resistance at 9736 [11]. 3.2.7 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil continued to rise in a volatile manner, strengthened by the strong US soybean oil market. Although domestic supply is relatively loose, the approaching consumption peak supports the price. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to close short positions and engage in short - term trading, with support at 8390 and resistance at 8500 [13]. 3.2.8 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates rebounded and continued to run strongly. The new - jujube production is expected to decline, but the inventory at sample points is higher than last year. The arrival volume in the sales area has decreased recently. Technically, it is in an uptrend. The strategy is to buy on dips, with support at 11245 and resistance at 11595 [15]. 3.2.9 Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar closed higher, continuing the upward trend. The domestic market trading atmosphere has warmed up, and the de - stocking process in the producing area has accelerated. Although the sugar import volume has increased, the market has digested the expectation. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to continue holding light long positions, with support at 5664 and resistance at 5703 [17]. 3.2.10 Apple - The main 2510 contract of apples closed higher in a volatile manner. The quality of early - maturing apples is poor, and the inventory is low, which supports the price. The export volume is gradually recovering. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is for short - term long trading, with support at 8050 and resistance at 8214 [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report Overall - Short - term adjustment is expected for soybean meal and rapeseed meal, with opportunities for short - term long positions after adjustment [1]. - Short - term bullish trends are predicted for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with a focus on buying on dips [1]. - Cautious bullishness is advised for cotton, red dates, and live pigs, with specific trading strategies proposed according to different market conditions [1]. By Variety - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term adjustment, with short - term long opportunities after adjustment due to ProFarmer's lower - than - expected US soybean yield forecast and consideration of Sino - US trade issues [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term adjustment, with opportunities for short - term long positions after stabilization. High inventory, high warehouse receipts, improved Sino - Australian trade, and increased Canadian rapeseed yield forecast are influencing factors [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish, with a focus on buying on dips. Favorable biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia, good export data, and reduced inventory are positive factors [1][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish, awaiting the implementation of the US biodiesel policy. Domestic spot market has good pre - holiday stocking [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term bullish, with prices mainly following other competing oils due to limited new developments in anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed and Australian rapeseed purchases [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautious bullish, with opportunities to buy on dips. Although US cotton soil moisture has improved and demand is insufficient, low international cotton price valuation, tight supply before new cotton listing, and potential local procurement support the market. However, the upside space is limited due to high - yield expectations [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Cautious bullish, with a strategy of buying on dips. Expected production reduction in 2025/26, long speculation period around the opening price before November, and accelerated inventory reduction are positive factors, but there is pressure from carry - over inventory [1][16]. - **Live Pigs**: Cautious bullish, with a suggestion to avoid short - selling blindly in the short term. High - level medium - and long - term inventory, shrinking incremental space, and potential capacity reduction of leading enterprises may support far - month contracts [1][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price Data**: Futures price (main contract) is 3113 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 1.49% from the previous day. National average spot price is 3084.29 yuan/ton, down 12.85 yuan or 0.41% [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 15, 2025, national port soybean inventory is 892.6 million tons, down 1.20 million tons from last week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 680.4 million tons, down 30.16 million tons or 4.24% from last week; bean meal inventory is 101.47 million tons, up 1.12 million tons or 1.12% from last week [3]. - **Market Analysis**: ProFarmer's US soybean yield forecast is lower than the USDA's August forecast, which is bullish. Considering Sino - US trade, short - term long opportunities can be considered after adjustment [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: Futures price (main contract) is 2561 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan or 2.51% from the previous day. National average spot price is 2608.95 yuan/ton, down 18.94 yuan or 0.72% [5]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 15, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 11.5 million tons, down 2.38 million tons from last week; rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 million tons, down 0.65 million tons from last week; unexecuted contracts are 5.5 million tons, down 1.4 million tons from last week [5]. - **Market Analysis**: High inventory, high warehouse receipts, improved Sino - Australian trade, and increased Canadian rapeseed yield forecast have cooled market speculation. Short - term long opportunities can be considered after stabilization, but chasing long positions should be cautious [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Price Data**: Futures price (main contract) is 9592 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan or 0.97% from the previous day. National average price is 9553 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.31% [7]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 15, 2025, national key area palm oil commercial inventory is 61.73 million tons, up 1.75 million tons or 2.92% from last week [9]. - **Export Data**: Malaysia's palm oil product exports from August 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 17.5% (AmSpec) and 37.19% (SGS) compared to the same period last month [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Favorable biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia, good export data, and reduced inventory support a short - term bullish view. Buying on dips is recommended, while paying attention to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation on crude oil prices and the estimated Malaysian palm oil inventory this month [1][9]. Cotton - **Price Data**: Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2509 is 14030 yuan/ton, and domestic spot price is 15246 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [10][11]. - **Inventory Data**: Domestic cotton commercial inventory is 71.26 million tons, lower than the same period by 29.7 million tons [12]. - **Demand Data**: Spinning mill operating rate is 65.8%, up 0.3%; weaving mill operating rate is 37%, up 0.2%; spinning mill orders are 11.42 days, up 3.06 days [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Although US cotton soil moisture has improved and demand is insufficient, low international cotton price valuation, tight supply before new cotton listing, and potential local procurement support the market. However, the upside space is limited due to high - yield expectations. Buying on dips is recommended, and the long - short rhythm can be adjusted according to demand in September [1][13]. Red Dates - **Price Data**: Red dates main contract CJ2601 is 11235 yuan/ton, down 2.47% [14][15]. - **Inventory Data**: 36 sample enterprises' inventory is 9519 tons, down 167 tons from the previous period [14]. - **Market Analysis**: Expected production reduction in 2025/26, long speculation period around the opening price before November, and accelerated inventory reduction are positive factors, but there is pressure from carry - over inventory. Buying on dips is recommended, and the market is expected to be strong first and then weak [1][16]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: Live pigs main contract Lh2511 is 13840 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. Domestic live pig spot price is stable at 13820 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Inventory and Supply Data**: National sample enterprises' live pig inventory is 3763.32 million tons, up 1.17% month - on - month; slaughter volume is 1091.68 million tons, down 3.01% month - on - month; fertile sows inventory is 4043 million tons, up 0.02% [17]. - **Market Analysis**: Smooth slaughter rhythm in the breeding end, pressure from previous second - fattening and accelerated August slaughter on the spot market. Medium - and long - term inventory remains high, but incremental space is shrinking. Capacity reduction of leading enterprises may support far - month contracts. Short - term short - selling is not recommended under the boost of purchase and storage sentiment, and long positions in far - month contracts or reverse arbitrage around strong contracts can be considered [1][19].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表 示最看空，2 表示最看多。 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,352 | 7,267 | 85 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2510 | 7,378 | 7,289 | 89 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,387 | 7,374 | 13 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB08-EB09 | -26 | -22 | -4 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB09-EB10 | -9 | -85 | 76 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 7370 | 20 | 资料来源：同花顺，卓创，国泰君安期货 【趋势强度】 ...