Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different commodities having their own supply - demand and price characteristics. Some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to remain in a range - bound state. [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: Global crude oil has seen a 2% inventory reduction in the second half of the year, with overall petroleum inventory slightly down 0.2%. The expected supply - demand surplus in Q3 is not confirmed. With increased 9 - month interest rate cut expectations, the unilateral price is seen as strong in the short - term. [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore's ship - fuel sales decreased 1.7% year - on - year by the end of July, and China's demand dropped 1%. However, supply also decreased 19%. The inventory pressure is relieved, and the fundamentals are positive. [21] - **Asphalt**: The demand is expected to rise during the construction season from August to October. The inventory is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 3450 - 3600 yuan/ton for the 10 - contract. [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market rebounds. The domestic market is in a repair phase in the short - term but faces long - term overseas production increase pressure. [23] - **Urea**: After the export policy adjustment, the port inventory increases, but the market is cautious. Supply is high, and demand is weak. It is expected to remain in low - level oscillation. [24] - **Methanol**: The supply increases, and the demand weakens. The port is expected to accumulate inventory rapidly. The market has released all negative factors. [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in an oscillating trend. With the market pricing a September interest rate cut, a callback - buying strategy is recommended. [3] - **Copper**: The copper price is affected by multiple factors. It is close to the 80,000 - yuan resistance level. Opportunities to sell call options are awaited. [4] - **Aluminum**: The inventory shows a seasonal increase. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 20800 - 21000 yuan. [5] - **Zinc**: The macro sentiment improves, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The price is expected to face pressure on rebounds. [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel shows a slight rebound. The inventory levels are high. The price has a rebound intention but weak fundamentals. [9] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Globally, the "crushing for oil" pattern emerges. In China, Q4 supply is sufficient, but there may be a shortage in Q1 next year. The market is cautiously bullish on soybean meal in the medium - long term. [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The U.S. biodiesel policy has a structural adjustment. Malaysian palm oil exports are strong. Both oils can be considered for buying at low prices. [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The supply uncertainty of rapeseed is decreasing, and the focus shifts to demand. The prices may oscillate in the short - term. [37] - **Corn**: With sufficient supply and good weather for new - season corn, the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom. [39] - **Cotton**: The international cotton market lacks strong positives. The domestic market has concerns about new - cotton pre - sales. A callback - buying strategy is recommended. [42] Others - **Stock Index**: A - share indices rise, and the Shanghai property market policy is adjusted. The market continues to focus on domestic and foreign policy signals and recommends increasing technology - growth sectors. [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: With the stock market rising, the treasury bond futures are under pressure, and the yield curve is likely to steepen. [48] - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to oscillate and decline slowly. The 12 - contract may have an undervaluation opportunity. [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Fuel Oil: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Asphalt: Oscillating [2] - Polyester: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] - Rubber: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] - Methanol: Oscillating [6] - Polyolefins: Oscillating in a narrow range [7] - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): Oscillating with a downward bias [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The instability of Russian energy facilities has increased, and the progress of the peace agreement lacks a clear timeline. The market has re - priced geopolitical risks, leading to an oscillating rebound in oil prices [1]. - The sanctions on Iran by the US have affected the arrival and delivery of fuel oil cargoes. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened, and the high - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure persists. The FU contract is subject to significant sentiment fluctuations and is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [2]. - In August, the actual demand for asphalt was lower than expected. In September, the demand is expected to increase, and the production of asphalt will remain stable. The price will depend on the actual demand [2]. - The improvement in demand expectations has brought positive support to the polyester chain. Short - term supply contractions due to unexpected maintenance of PX and TA, along with the slow recovery of pessimistic sentiment in the crude oil market, have led to a slight price rebound, and there is still room for further increase. The high operating load of ethylene glycol and the reduction of port inventory are beneficial to its price [4]. - The 13th typhoon has affected the supply of natural rubber, and the raw material prices are relatively firm. The export of tires has increased, providing support for demand. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias. The planned maintenance of butadiene rubber production facilities will improve the fundamentals, and the butadiene price will oscillate with an upward bias [4][6] - The domestic methanol supply is at a phased low due to multiple device overhauls, and the supply will gradually recover. The short - term arrival of overseas methanol will remain high, but it will decrease in the long term. The methanol price is expected to oscillate [6]. - The production of polyolefins will remain high, and the demand is gradually warming up. The fundamentals are not highly contradictory, and the price will oscillate in a narrow range [7]. - The domestic demand for PVC is gradually recovering, but exports will be weakened by India's anti - dumping policy. The price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices continued to rise. Trump threatened sanctions on Russia and India. The Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Russia caught fire, and the Friendship Pipeline was attacked. India's crude oil imports in July decreased. The instability of Russian energy facilities and geopolitical risks have led to an oscillating rebound in oil prices [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the fuel oil futures prices rose. US sanctions on Iran and the ample supply of arbitrage cargoes have affected the market. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened, and the high - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure persists. The FU contract is subject to sentiment fluctuations and is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the asphalt futures price rose. In August, the demand was lower than expected, but it is expected to increase in September. The production of asphalt will be stable, and the price depends on the actual demand [2] - **Polyester**: On Monday, the polyester futures prices showed mixed trends. The demand improvement and supply contractions due to unexpected maintenance have brought positive support. The price of PX and TA is expected to rise further, and the ethylene glycol price is also supported [4] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the rubber futures prices rose. The typhoon has affected the supply, and the tire export has increased, supporting the demand. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias, and the butadiene price will also oscillate with an upward bias [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol spot prices showed differences. The domestic supply is at a phased low and will gradually recover. The short - term arrival of overseas methanol will remain high but decrease in the long term. The methanol price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the polyolefin spot prices showed differences. The production will remain high, and the demand is gradually warming up. The price will oscillate in a narrow range [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the PVC market prices increased. The domestic demand is gradually recovering, but exports will be weakened. The price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on August 26, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes [8] 3.3 Market News - Norway's Equinor discovered additional oil and gas resources near the Troll oil field in the North Sea, with an estimated total resource volume of 100,000 - 1.1 million cubic meters, equivalent to 600,000 - 6.9 million barrels of recoverable oil equivalent [11] - Nigeria's NNPC stated that almost all pipeline theft has been eliminated through the coordination of defense and intelligence agencies [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [13][15][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc [27][29][33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc [40][42][45] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc [58][60][63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, etc [66][67][69] 3.5 Research Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in the energy - chemical research field [72][73][74]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver rebounded. At the Jackson Hole meeting last week, Powell's statement was considered a dovish stance, enhancing the expectation of a rate cut in September. The rebound of US inflation data in July and positive signals from US - Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks, putting pressure on gold and silver. The non - farm payrolls data in July was worse than expected and the previous value was significantly revised down. The Fed's internal views are divided, and Trump's personnel appointments affect market expectations of the Fed. Although there are multi - party progress in trade negotiations, the overall trade environment is still deteriorating. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and currently, gold and silver may show a relatively strong trend as the expectation of a rate cut rises [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 779.92 and 782.32 respectively, with daily increases of 0.74 (0.09%) and 0.84 (0.11%). The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9348.00 and 9371.00 respectively, with daily decreases of 46.00 (-0.49%) and 43.00 (-0.46%) [2] - **Position and Volume**: The positions of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 180151 and 140282 respectively, and the trading volumes are 226253 and 52290 respectively. The positions of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 322774 and 240493 respectively, and the trading volumes are 631045 and 145892 respectively [2] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premium and discount of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 4.58 and - 6.98 respectively, and that of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 16.00 and - 7.00 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold are 775.34 and 774.20 respectively, with daily changes of 3.71 (0.48%) and - 2.57 (-0.33%). The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Silver T + D and London Silver are 9364.00 and 38.56 respectively, with daily changes of 182.00 (1.98%) and - 0.33 (-0.85%) [2] - **Price Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510,沪银2512 - 沪银2510, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 2.40, 23, 82.80, 7.17, and 7.55 respectively, compared with previous values of 2.30, 20, 84.04, 7.12, and 7.34 [2] Inventory - **Domestic and Overseas Inventories**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 37,515 kg (an increase of 60.00 kg), and the silver inventory is 1,113,641 kg (an increase of 4,518.00 kg). The current COMEX gold inventory is 38,563,780 ounces (a decrease of 32.15 ounces), and the silver inventory is 508,783,339 ounces (an increase of 296409 ounces) [2] Relevant Market Indicators - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 98.4262, 6439.32, 4.28, 68.2, and 7.1581 respectively, with changes of 0.72%, - 0.43%, 0.47%, 0.01%, and - 0.18% compared with the previous values [2] - **Derivative Product Positions**: The current positions of the SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons (an increase of 1.00 ton). The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 compared with the previous values [2] 4. Macroeconomic News - Trump met with South Korea's President Lee Jae - myung at the White House. Trump said he doesn't mind renegotiating the trade agreement with South Korea and is considering ordering some ships from South Korea [2] - The Trump administration outlined a plan to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, targeting products entering the consumer market or being withdrawn from warehouses after 12:01 am Eastern Daylight Time on August 27, 2025 [2] - The US added minerals such as copper and potash to the 2025 critical minerals list. The draft list has been published in the Federal Register for a 30 - day public comment period [2] - In July, the annualized sales volume of new homes in the US decreased by 0.6% to 652,000 units, exceeding the market expectation of 630,000 units. The median price of new homes decreased by 5.9% year - on - year to $403,800 [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt and liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short-term unilateral risk of oil prices is upward, and there is still significant uncertainty in geopolitical changes in the next two weeks. It is recommended to continue holding the long strangle strategy of out-of-the-money options for hedging and then enter medium-term short positions after the volatility increases [2]. - The fundamentals of fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil are relatively more bullish than before. Due to geopolitical conflicts, high-sulfur resources are more affected by geopolitical premiums, and the spread between FU and SC cracking has strengthened [3][4]. - The international LPG market rebounded supported by import demand. Currently, the domestic arrival volume continues to increase. Attention should be paid to the pressure on the domestic chemical industry after the increase in import costs [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the crude oil market rose. Brent's October contract rose 2.51%, and SC10 contract rose 1.13% [2]. - The promotion of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement was not as smooth as the market expected. Since August, Ukraine has frequently attacked Russian energy infrastructure, and the market's previous pricing of the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation has been revised [2]. - The net long positions in overseas crude oil futures and options have reached the lower end of the range and are still relatively sensitive to bullish geopolitical risks. Trump mentioned that if Russia and Ukraine do not hold direct talks within two weeks, large-scale sanctions will be imposed [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - On Monday, the fuel oil futures continued to strengthen, with the FU increase being obvious, and the main contract rose above 2900 yuan/ton [3][4]. - As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, and China's bonded marine fuel bunkering demand decreased by 1% year-on-year. At the same time, the enthusiasm of domestic refineries to produce marine fuel was also low, and the supply decreased by 19% year-on-year as of July [3][4]. - The onshore fuel oil inventories in Singapore and Fujairah decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure showed a relief trend [3][4]. - Due to geopolitical conflicts in Russia and Iran, high-sulfur resources are more affected by geopolitical premiums. In terms of variety spreads, the spread between FU and SC cracking has strengthened, and the spreads between LU-FU and BU-FU have significantly narrowed [3][4]. Asphalt - The content is the same as that of fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil [3][4]. LPG - The international LPG market rebounded supported by import demand. Currently, the domestic arrival volume continues to increase. Due to the low-price goods in the early stage, the sales pressure is limited. Attention should be paid to the pressure on the domestic chemical industry after the increase in import costs [5]. - With the stabilization of crude oil, the spread between naphtha and propane remains at an advantageous level, and there is high chemical demand in the short term [5].

Market Overview - The dollar index experienced a significant drop following Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, which raised expectations for a rate cut in September, ultimately closing up 0.4934% at 97.7, marking the largest single-day decline since early August [1][2] - Spot gold surged after Powell's remarks, reaching a peak of $3378.8 per ounce during the session, and closing up 1% at $3372.11 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver also followed gold's upward trend, closing up 1.72% at $38.85 per ounce [1][2] Key News Summary - Powell's dovish signals regarding a potential rate cut in September have bolstered the financial appeal of precious metals, despite internal concerns about inflation from officials like Harker and political uncertainties stemming from Trump's threats to dismiss Federal Reserve governors [3] - On the global trade front, Trump's announcement of tariffs on imported furniture and Canada's decision to maintain steel and aluminum tariffs have complicated trade relations, potentially heightening risk aversion [3] - Geopolitical tensions are also rising, with Trump setting a two-week deadline for Russia-Ukraine negotiations and hinting at new sanctions against Russia, which increases the geopolitical risk premium [3] Trading Insights - Precious metals are expected to continue a strong oscillation in the short term, with the Fed's rate cut expectations being the primary driver; if the September policy is implemented and signals further easing, gold prices may test resistance around $3440 [4] - Conversely, if inflation or employment data exceeds expectations, it could trigger profit-taking [4] - Silver, benefiting from its industrial properties and speculative sentiment, may show greater elasticity compared to gold, but attention should be paid to resistance around $39.5 [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: August 25 - 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning [7]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the gold price showed a volatile and weak trend, with weekly fluctuations between - 0.36% and 0.32%. It was mainly affected by the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the cooling of geopolitical risks suppressing short - term hedging demand, combined with the outflow of ETF funds and the increase in inventory [7]. - Next Week's Focus: Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, US economic data's impact on interest - rate cut expectations, and new changes in the geopolitical situation [7]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The main gold contract 2510 was expected to move in a volatile manner. Grid trading was recommended in the range of 735 - 838 [11]. - This Week's Strategy: The main gold contract 2510 is expected to move in a volatile manner. Grid trading is recommended in the range of 760 - 800 [12]. 2.3 Related Data - Data includes Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the silver price showed a "bottom - fishing and rebound" trend. It was mainly affected by the wavering expectations of the Fed's policies, with inventory decline providing bottom support, while weak industrial demand and technical break - outs triggering phased selling pressure [32]. - Next Week's Focus: Policy signals from the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting, US non - farm data, and the implementation effect of domestic stimulus policies. The market may continue the volatile and slightly strong pattern [32]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2510 was expected to be in high - level oscillation, with the lower support range at 8500 - 8800 and the upper pressure range at 9200 - 9500 [36]. - This Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 is expected to be in high - level oscillation, with the lower support range at 8500 - 8800 and the upper pressure range at 9200 - 9500 [37]. 3.3 Related Data - Data includes Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [45][48][50]

Market Overview - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's liquefied gas futures opened at 4370 CNY/ton and reached a high of 4409 CNY/ton, with a current price of 4387 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.67% increase [1] - On August 20, liquefied gas futures had an opening price of 4295 CNY/ton, a closing price of 4354 CNY/ton, and a trading volume of 98,400 contracts [2] Market News - As of August 20, the number of liquefied petroleum gas futures warehouse receipts was 13,298 contracts, which is an increase of 20 contracts compared to the previous trading day [2] Institutional Insights - Dongwu Futures noted that while overseas market exports remain loose, the recovery in East Asian chemical procurement provides support, leading to price stabilization. The overall import recovery in early August suggests potential for further price adjustments due to refinery gas costs and crude oil influences [3] - Ruida Futures highlighted a significant unexpected drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, indicating short-term tightness. However, expectations of OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical easing in regions like Gaza and Ukraine continue to suppress oil prices, maintaining a loose supply-demand balance. Domestic prices for both domestic and imported gas are rising, but downstream trading activity is declining due to price increases, although importers are showing increased willingness to arbitrage [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week's unexpected US inflation data pressured gold and silver, and recent positive signals from US-Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The sharp increase in the US PPI in July cooled the expectation of a significant interest rate cut. Although the employment market's weakening supported the prices of gold and silver, the overall trade environment continued to deteriorate. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continued to purchase gold. Gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of an interest rate cut rises [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts all declined, with the decline rates of Shanghai gold futures at -0.32% and that of Shanghai silver futures at -1.37% and -1.35% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of spot gold and silver also decreased, with the decline rate of London silver reaching -1.66%. The price differences between different contracts and the ratios of Shanghai gold/silver to London gold/silver changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of gold and silver in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX changed, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory increasing by 11,020 kilograms and the COMEX's gold inventory decreasing by 17,425.86 ounces [2]. - **Related Derivatives and Macroeconomic Indicators**: The US dollar index rose by 0.13%, the S&P 500 index fell by -0.59%, the US Treasury yield decreased by -0.92%, and the positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF increased slightly [2]. Macro News - Trump stated that the US would help Ukraine defend but not send ground troops, and Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO. The US planned a tripartite meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest [3]. - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a tax rate of 50% [3]. - Japan and the US planned to closely discuss the implementation of a $550 billion investment in the US and set up a mechanism to verify national interests [3]. - The annualized monthly rate of new housing starts in the US in July increased by 5.2%, reaching 1.428 million units, higher than market expectations [3]. Comments and Strategies - The unexpected inflation data in the US last week pressured gold and silver, and the positive signals from US-Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The sharp increase in the US PPI in July cooled the expectation of a significant interest rate cut [4]. - Previously, the US Treasury Secretary believed that there was a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, but the inflation data has changed this expectation [4]. - The employment market's weakening supported the prices of gold and silver, but the overall trade environment continued to deteriorate. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continued to purchase gold. Gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of an interest rate cut rises [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. High - interest rates impact consumption, there is a differentiation in CPI and PPI expectations, and inflation may rebound in autumn, affecting the Fed's decision - making. In the short - term, market risk appetite is expected to remain strong [6]. - Domestic macro: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with consumption, investment, and credit demand weakening. Exports were the main support for the domestic economy. August exports may remain resilient, but there may be pressure starting from September [6]. - Asset views: In late August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the global central bank summit is a game window for Fed policy. The rise of risk assets is driven by tariff and geopolitical risk mitigation and loose liquidity expectations. As economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term, with pressure in the medium - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, CPI and PPI expectations are different, and inflation may rebound in autumn [6]. - Domestic: July economic data growth slowed, with exports as the main support. August exports may be resilient, but September may face pressure [6]. - Assets: Late August is a key period for investment, consumption, and Fed policy. Risk assets are driven by positive factors, and short - term market volatility may increase as the economy slows [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [7]. - Stock index options: An offensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are expected to strengthen with volatility, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and prices are falling from high levels, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Iron ore: Fundamentals are healthy, and prices are slightly回调 after sentiment cools, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Other products (such as coke, coking coal, etc.): All are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, etc.: Most metals are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with factors such as supply, demand, and policies affecting prices [7]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to show a volatile upward trend in the short - term [7]. - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure exists, and the short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend [9]. - Other chemicals: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Palm oil is leading the rise, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [9]. - Other agricultural products: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [9].

来源：智昇财论 黄金方面：美国与俄罗斯的初步谈判已经结束，与市场预期基本一致，根本矛盾使得双方的谈判并未取 得实质性成果。双方实际谈判时间远超预期的5-6小时，随后俄罗斯总统快速离开，表明了对美国的不 信任，同时传递出信息：不愿按照美国的节奏行事。 原油方面：隔夜油价整体以震荡为主，多头虽有反击但力度较弱，操作上建议顺势高空为主。目前原油 基本面持续恶化，供需矛盾突出，在此背景下，油价很可能长期疲弱。 原油供应增加的预期也加大了油价的下行压力，美国能源信息署发布的月度短观能源展望报告显示，由 于油井生产率的提高，2025年美国页岩油产量将达到创纪录的1341万桶/日，较此前预期上调4万桶。此 外，OPEC月报显示，OPEC+7月原油产量增加33.5万桶至4194万桶/日，但该产量增长幅度低于此前 OPEC+8国达成的产量恢复协议。库存方面，美国原油库存增加也利空油价，EIA数据显示，截至8月8 日当周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量较一周前增加326.3万桶至8.299亿桶，美国商业原油库 存量较一周前增加303.7万桶至4.26698亿桶。 技术面：原油日线有冲击长期均线的动作，但明显上攻动能较弱，长期 ...