新华社北京7月8日电 经济热点问答｜谈判延期又施压加码 美最新关税动作怎么看 新华社记者俞懋峰 美国总统特朗普7日宣布将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税，并决定将"对等关税"暂缓 期截止日期延长至8月1日。一些美国媒体将最新系列举措解读为升级贸易战之举。 哪些国家面临美国最新关税威胁？金融市场和贸易伙伴如何回应美方动作？美政府将谈判延期又施压加码背后有何意图？ 7月8日，在日本东京，日本首相石破茂（左）在综合对策总部会议上发言。新华社/共同社 哪些国家面临美最新关税威胁？ 特朗普当天在社交媒体上陆续发布他写给日本、韩国等14国领导人的信函，称将从8月1日起对这些国家征收25%到40%不等的关税。 根据信函，日本、韩国、马来西亚、突尼斯、哈萨克斯坦将被征收25%的关税，南非和波黑将被征收30%的关税，印度尼西亚将被征收32% 的关税，塞尔维亚和孟加拉国将被征收35%的关税，泰国和柬埔寨将被征收36%的关税，老挝和缅甸则面临40%的关税。 同一天，特朗普签署行政令，延长"对等关税"90天暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。特朗普表示，8月1日的期限不是"1 ...

本文字数：1963，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 在上周引起市场剧烈波动后，美国总统特朗普周一宣布，不会对进口金条加征关税。当天国际金价震荡走低超2%，创近三个月来最大跌幅。与此同时， 对黄金的避险需求因俄乌停火前景而减弱，投资者也在密切关注事关9月美联储降息的最新美国通胀报告及依然不明朗的全球贸易形势进展。 72小时市场巨变 纽约商品交易所近月黄金期货合约周一重挫近2.5%，盘后失守每盎司3400美元，创今年5月以来最大跌幅。 商品经纪商StoneX分析师奥康内尔（Rhona O'Connell）表示："芝加哥商品交易所COMEX库存目前占未平仓合约的86%，而正常情况下为40%-45%，因此 没有流动性问题。"他预计，美国海关与边境保护局仍可能修改其观点，或者华盛顿可能会将第二个HS编码添加到其排除清单中，或者该行业可能会挑战 美国海关与海关保护局的立场。 多重因素或影响短期金价 如今，市场目光将转向最新美国物价数据。美国7月消费者价格指数CPI将于周二公布，周四将公布生产者价格指数PPI。 最近一份弱于预期的美国就业报告增加了交易员对美联储9月份降息的押注。根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的F ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices due to U.S. President Trump's announcement regarding import tariffs on gold bars, which has led to a significant drop in international gold prices and a shift in market sentiment towards inflation and trade issues [2][3][4]. Market Reaction - Following Trump's announcement, gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange fell nearly 2.5%, dropping below $3,400 per ounce, marking the largest decline since May [3]. - The announcement led to a temporary spike in gold prices, reaching a record $3,534.10 per ounce, before retreating as the White House clarified the tariff situation [3][4]. Tariff Implications - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection clarified the correct customs code for gold bars, which could lead to potential tariffs, causing confusion and volatility in the market [3][4]. - Major gold suppliers, including those from Switzerland, halted shipments to the U.S. amid tariff uncertainties, although mining companies like Barrick Gold downplayed the impact, stating they are price takers [3][4]. Economic Indicators - The market is closely watching upcoming U.S. inflation data, with expectations that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [6]. - A weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report has increased speculation about a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut [6]. Trade Relations - The article highlights ongoing trade tensions, including new tariffs on various goods, which have been a significant factor in driving gold prices up this year [6]. - Trump's recent actions regarding semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs are also noted, with potential rates reaching as high as 250% [6]. Geopolitical Factors - The potential for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is seen as a factor that could reduce gold's safe-haven demand, impacting prices negatively [7][8]. - Analysts express optimism about the upcoming U.S.-Russia talks, viewing them as a crucial step towards stability, which could further influence gold prices [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that private labels are gaining popularity among consumers in Europe due to dissatisfaction with rising prices of A-brands, providing supermarkets with valuable insights during negotiations with these brands [1][4] - Ahold Delhaize is collaborating with other European supermarket groups for joint purchasing to secure better prices, as significant price discrepancies exist across countries [4] - The growth of private labels is enhancing Ahold Delhaize's negotiating power with A-brands, allowing them to use their own products as comparison materials during negotiations [4] Group 2 - The impact of the trade war between the US and Europe has been minimal for Ahold Delhaize, as the company primarily sources food locally for its supermarkets [6] - However, rising costs of packaging materials, particularly aluminum and steel, are expected to affect the costs of products sold in US supermarkets [6] - The company is exploring smarter solutions to mitigate the impact of rising costs without passing them on to consumers [6]

Group 1 - The trade relationship between India and the United States has become tense, with a projected trade volume of $129.2 billion in 2024, where India exports $87 billion and imports $41 billion, resulting in a surplus of $45.7 billion, ranking ninth globally [1][2] - The U.S. has imposed a 26% tariff on Indian automotive, steel, and aluminum products starting April 2025, following aggressive tariff policies initiated by the Trump administration [1][2] - Negotiations primarily stalled over agricultural products, with India maintaining high tariffs on soybeans and corn at 39% and 50% respectively, while the average tariff in India is 7.7%, significantly higher than the U.S. average of 2.8% [2][4] Group 2 - In response to U.S. tariffs, India has increased tariffs on certain U.S. products, including bourbon whiskey, reverting a previous agreement to reduce tariffs from 150% to 100%, which is expected to decrease U.S. exports by 40% [2][4] - China has recalled over 300 engineers from India, primarily from Foxconn's iPhone factory, due to uncertainties in U.S.-China trade relations, impacting the production of iPhone 17 and delaying manufacturing plans [4][6] - India's economic growth is projected at 6.48% for 2024, with a GDP of $3.91 trillion, but the ongoing trade war may lead to capital flight to countries like Vietnam [6][9] Group 3 - Modi's upcoming visit to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit is seen as an opportunity for India to strengthen ties with China and Russia in light of U.S. pressures [6][7] - The trade tensions have prompted a shift in India's defense procurement strategy, moving away from the U.S. and towards Russia for military supplies, including the S-400 missile system [7][11] - The global supply chain is undergoing significant adjustments, with countries like Vietnam benefiting from increased orders as India's manufacturing sector faces slowdowns [9][11] Group 4 - The situation highlights the fragility of global trade, with India aiming to leverage the "China +1" strategy for growth, but facing challenges due to U.S. tariffs that have escalated from 2.5% to 27% [9][13] - The trade war has led to increased prices for consumers, with India needing to balance its diplomatic relations to avoid being caught between the U.S. and China [11][13] - The potential outcomes of Modi's visit to China could influence future trade dynamics, but the ongoing trade war continues to pose challenges for all involved parties [13]

数据显示，2025年美国物流行业的破产申请数量已飙升至近十五年的峰值，仅在5月份就录得733起之多。随之而来的是大规模的企业"优化"——工厂关闭、 岗位消失，数以千计的卡车司机、仓库员工、调度人员以及技术行政人员在短时间内失去了工作。 特朗普关税政策的持续施压与动荡不安的货运市场，将众多物流服务商推向了崩溃边缘，裁员已成为行业应对关税冲击的普遍手段。 01 物流巨头裁员关厂成常态 这场风暴中，即使是全球物流巨头也难以独善其身 国际物流巨头DHL也公开确认了其调整策略，计划在今年削减8000个工作岗位，同时关闭位于加州安大略市的重要配送中心以及佐治亚州联合城的一处运 营设施。 这股席卷行业的裁员浪潮并非孤立事件，而是整个美国物流业在巨大压力下艰难求生的缩影。 巨头们尚且如此，众多中小型物流企业的处境可想而知。 02 关税利刃与市场乱流 为什么物流公司会举步维艰？ 第一，关税引发的经济压力。 悬而未决的关税大大减少了运输量，尤其沉重地打击了中美间的货物流转。外媒称，大量从中国采购的中小型企业的成本显着上升，美国零售联合会预计， 今年剩余时间内，美国整体进口量预计将下滑20%，中国商品将大幅下降 80%。 图源：u ...

Core Viewpoint - Short selling the stock of Maersk, the world's largest publicly traded shipping company, during the global trade war has resulted in significant losses for investors since April, despite initial expectations of profit from this strategy [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Short Selling - As of now, nearly one-third of Maersk's freely traded shares have been borrowed, marking the highest short interest level since data collection began in 2014, reflecting a 15% increase since the announcement of tariffs by President Trump in early April [1][4]. - Following an initial drop after the tariff announcement, Maersk's stock has surged approximately 50% from its low in April [1]. - Analysts on Wall Street generally hold a pessimistic view on Maersk's long-term performance, with an average 12-month target price indicating a potential decline of about 15% from current levels [4]. Group 2: Business Resilience and Market Opportunities - Maersk's CEO, Vincent Clerc, emphasized that tariffs have not significantly hindered global trade, as many products cannot be easily replaced with local alternatives, presenting market opportunities for the company [5]. - The company has raised its financial performance expectations for 2025, citing resilient global transportation demand outside the U.S. [1][5]. - Historical trends indicate that shipping stocks often rebound quickly after major negative global events, suggesting a potential for continued growth in the shipping sector despite current challenges [7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Logic - The primary rationale for shorting Maersk's stock is not based on its fundamental performance but rather on its high valuation and the belief that Trump's tariff policies will ultimately harm global trade [9]. - Despite the bearish sentiment from some investors, the stock has not performed as expected, indicating that the short sellers' logic has not yet been validated [9].

Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - India imposed a 150% punitive tariff on U.S. bourbon whiskey and allowed the withdrawal of 327 Chinese engineers, significantly impacting global economic dynamics [1][2] - The U.S. government raised tariffs on Indian imports to 50% after failed negotiations, marking India as one of the most expensive trade partners for the U.S. [1] - India retaliated against U.S. sanctions by imposing tariffs on $3.5 billion worth of U.S. goods, including a 30% tariff on soybeans, corn, apples, and Alaskan crude oil [2] Group 2: Impact on Manufacturing and Supply Chains - The withdrawal of Chinese engineers from India led to a significant decline in the production quality of iPhone 17, with defect rates soaring from 0.9% to 8.7% [4] - The Indian manufacturing sector faced severe disruptions, with a 30% drop in production quality and delays in the iPhone 17 launch by at least six months [4] - The U.S. tariffs resulted in a drastic reduction of India's trade surplus with the U.S., and the Indian smartphone export to the U.S. surged by 90% before facing a 50% tariff barrier [6] Group 3: Economic Consequences for Workers - The trade conflict led to job losses, with 120 workers laid off at bourbon distilleries in Kentucky and a decrease in wages for assembly line workers in Tamil Nadu, India [8] - The return of Chinese engineers caused unrest among Indian workers, who protested outside factories due to the loss of jobs and opportunities [8] - The manufacturing sector in India is experiencing a decline in quality and efficiency, with critical components missing, leading to increased failure rates in defense and technology systems [8]

Core Points - The Trump administration has announced new tariffs targeting India and Brazil, aiming to send a strong message to other nations [1][3] - India has been subjected to a 25% punitive tariff due to its continued procurement of Russian oil and military supplies, but the Indian government remains defiant [1][3] - Brazil's President Lula has expressed willingness to negotiate fairly with the Trump administration, contrasting India's hard stance [3][5] Summary by Sections Tariff Announcement - The U.S. has implemented a 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods, citing India's ongoing purchases of Russian oil and military equipment as the primary reason [1][3] - The Trump administration's aggressive tariff strategy is seen as an attempt to deter other countries from similar actions [1] India's Response - India has firmly rejected the U.S. tariffs, emphasizing the stability and long-term nature of its contracts with Russia [3][5] - The Indian government is aware that the tariffs could severely impact its key industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, jewelry, and software [3][5] - India is leveraging its strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific region, believing that the U.S. needs India to counterbalance China [5] Brazil's Position - In contrast to India's defiance, Brazil's President Lula has indicated a willingness to engage in equal trade negotiations with the U.S. [5][6] - Lula's administration is focused on protecting Brazilian agriculture and manufacturing from becoming a dumping ground for U.S. products [5][6] - The U.S. previously threatened a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods but ultimately settled for a 10% tariff, indicating a potential concession to Brazil [5][6] Broader Implications - The ongoing tariff disputes highlight the complexities of U.S. trade relations with emerging economies like India and Brazil [6] - The potential for retaliatory measures and the impact on global oil prices could have significant repercussions for the U.S. economy [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented arrangement between Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of their sales revenue from chip sales in China to the U.S. government marks a significant shift in U.S. export control policies [1][3][5]. Group 1: Export License Conditions - Nvidia and AMD have received export licenses to sell chips in China, contingent upon paying 15% of their sales revenue to the U.S. government [3][6]. - Nvidia is expected to generate approximately $23 billion in revenue from selling around 1.5 million H20 chips in China by 2025, which could result in over $3 billion in payments to the U.S. government [3]. Group 2: Implications of the Arrangement - This arrangement is seen as a new phase in the trade war, with analysts highlighting its significance as it involves revenue sharing rather than profit sharing [5]. - The U.S. government is negotiating "trade agreements" on a company-by-company basis, indicating a more tailored approach to trade relations [5]. Group 3: Government Stance and Reactions - The U.S. Commerce Department has begun issuing export licenses for H20 chips, coinciding with a meeting between Nvidia's CEO and former President Trump [6]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has expressed concerns over U.S. export controls, emphasizing the need for cooperation and a stable semiconductor supply chain [7]. Group 4: Tariff Policies - Trump has announced a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports but offers exemptions for companies that commit to building factories in the U.S. [8].