地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 05 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 05 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。集运欧线涨超 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on December 5 showed mixed results, with the shipping European line main contract rising over 4% and copper and zinc contracts increasing by over 2% [1][2] - The China Securities commodity futures price index closed at 1514.45 points, up 4.20 points or 0.28% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Shipping European Line - The shipping European line futures experienced a "four consecutive days of gains," with the main contract closing up 4.04% after reaching a peak increase of over 6% during the day [2] - Market sentiment is influenced by Maersk's announcement to raise January freight rates to $2,275 per TEU and $3,500 per FEU, although there are concerns about the actual market demand [2] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector remained strong, with both London copper and Shanghai copper reaching new historical highs, with Shanghai copper closing at 92,780 yuan per ton, up 2.19% [3] - Factors contributing to the bullish sentiment include expectations of interest rate cuts and a weakening US dollar, alongside concerns about copper supply shortages due to high cancellation rates of LME copper warehouse receipts [3] Group 4: Coke and Coal Market - The coke market saw significant declines, with the main contract for coke dropping by 3.15%, while coking coal also fell by over 2% due to weakening supply-demand dynamics [4] - Despite limited recovery space for domestic coal mines, stable production levels and high inventory at the Ganqimaodu port are influencing market conditions [4] Group 5: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon futures fell by 2.96% amid a weak spot market and reduced downstream demand, with significant production cuts initiated by silicon wafer manufacturers [5] - The expected polysilicon production for December is around 120,000 tons, while silicon wafer production is projected to drop significantly, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [5]

王爷说财经讯： 12月5日，国际铜价迎来"史诗级暴涨"！ 伦敦金属交易所铜期货盘中触及11581.5美元/吨的历史峰值，沪铜主力合约直接站上9万元/吨大关。花旗刚发重磅报告，直言2026年第二季度铜价将冲到 13000美元/吨，甚至有40%概率摸高14000美元！ 国际铜价这波涨势到底有多猛？今年以来伦铜已累涨超30%，COMEX铜库存较去年年底暴增300%，美国市场占了全球三大交易所库存的62%。手里有铜 相关股票、基金的朋友，是不是已经偷偷赚麻了？没上车的人更慌了——现在追还来得及吗？铜价为啥突然"开挂"？13000美元的目标真能实现？ 01、铜价从"平稳"到"狂飙"，只用了3个月？ 咱们先看一组扎心数据：10月底伦铜才刚破1.12万美元，短短一个多月就再创新高；国内沪铜从年初的7万元/吨，一路涨到现在的近9万元，涨幅超28%。 这不是孤立行情，而是全球资本的集体动作。 美国因为关税政策不确定性，形成了"铜库存黑洞"，资金疯狂囤铜导致非美市场现货紧缺。 江铜集团德兴铜矿都开始24小时满负荷生产，连低品位矿石都不放过，今年多处理了60多万吨低品位矿，就为了多回收1000吨铜金属。 市场已经从"犹豫观望"变成 ...

日本央行政策动向方面，日本央行很可能在12月加息，政策利率可能从0.5%上调至0.75%。这是自今年 1月份以来的首次加息，且日本政府预计将容忍这一决定。 美国债务的不可持续性、央行购金等长期驱动因素对贵金属支撑依然稳固。 美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，为2023年3月以来最低水平，远低于市场预期的增加1万人，就业 市场疲软进一步强化12月降息预期，流动性宽松继续对贵金属价格形成提振。 【机构观点】 摘要数据显示，12月5日上海黄金现货价格报价951.61元/克，相较于期货主力价格(961.04元/克)贴水9.43 元/克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 12月5日 收盘价(元/克) 当日涨跌幅 成交量(手) 持仓量(手) 沪金主力 961.04 0.36% 237697 196953 【基本面消息】 数据显示，12月5日上海黄金现货价格报价951.61元/克，相较于期货主力价格(961.04元/克)贴水9.43元/ 克。 国投期货：隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数降至19.1万人远低于预期，创2022年9月以来新低，缓解 劳动力市场急剧恶化担忧。12月降息已基本定价，贵金属震荡为主，黄金突破前高阻力前贵金属 ...

基本面来看，供应相对稳定，济源、湖南等地区散单货源有限，支撑了现货价格的相对坚挺。需求端来 看，下游铅酸蓄电池企业开工率仍维持在70-75%的水平，市场低价接货积极性尚可。此外，导致上海 期货交易所的铅锭仓单库存持续下滑。当前仓单库存已不足2万吨，处于近一年来的最低水平，去库对 铅价有一定提振。市场铅锭社会库存预计整体仍处相对低位，结构性支撑依然存在。此外，以往临近中 旬交割周期，资金层面存在惯性拉涨意愿，或进一步助推盘面走强。 本月上旬，伦铅价格表现强势，持续走高，于月中最高运行至2097美元/吨，创下自2025年4月以来的最 高水平。在此强劲带动下，国内铅价同步走强。与此同时，国内市场需求尚可，叠加散单货源供应紧张 的市场结构，共同推升了国内铅价。 进入下旬，市场关注焦点转向美联储货币政策动向。由于降息预期存在较大不确定性，投资者风险偏好 趋于谨慎，市场整体情绪逐渐转向偏空。部分前期参与资金为规避风险选择陆续离场，导致市场支撑力 度减弱。受此影响，国内铅价承压回调，呈现震荡下行态势，下旬整体走势较上旬明显转弱。 12月来看，多空因素交织，预计铅价或先涨后跌。 有利因素： 宏观面：美联储内部对12月FOMC ...

Group 1: Silver Futures Market Performance - On December 5, the main silver futures in Shanghai reported at 13,687 yuan per kilogram, with an increase of 0.45%, opening at 13,382 yuan per kilogram, reaching a high of 13,750 yuan and a low of 13,232 yuan [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 191,000, the lowest in over three years, significantly below economists' expectations of 220,000, alleviating concerns about the labor market but not altering expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week [1] - Investors are closely watching the upcoming U.S. September PCE price index report, which is expected to cause significant market fluctuations [1] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Guoxin Futures suggests that precious metals may maintain a high-level oscillation pattern due to ongoing rate cut expectations and short-term technical adjustment pressures, with key support for gold at $4,200 per ounce and silver at $57 per ounce [1] - Jinrui Futures notes that current tight supply is pushing silver prices higher, with long-term core drivers for gold and silver prices remaining robust despite short-term adjustments [2] - Dayue Futures indicates that supply shortage dynamics are cooling, leading to a price pullback, but expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and optimistic views on Russia-Ukraine negotiations continue to support silver prices [2]

Market Performance - On December 4, the three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly declining, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices experienced slight increases. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index recorded an increase on the same day [1]. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Market expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have strengthened, with indications that a 25 basis point cut may be implemented in the upcoming meeting. The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December is nearing 90% according to the CME monitoring tool [3]. - There is greater uncertainty regarding the interest rate path for 2026, with some analysts suggesting that multiple policy factors could lead to accelerated economic growth in the U.S. by that year [3]. Gold Market Outlook - On December 5, gold prices fluctuated within a narrow range as market sentiment turned cautious ahead of key inflation data releases. If the data indicates easing inflationary pressures, it could provide upward momentum for gold prices [3]. - The latest employment data has exceeded expectations, alleviating some concerns regarding the labor market [3]. - Looking ahead to 2026, gold prices will continue to be influenced by a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, with expectations of maintaining a range-bound trading pattern. However, the actual trajectory will depend on economic growth, interest rate changes, and policy effectiveness, with potential outcomes ranging from moderate increases to significant strength, as well as the possibility of pressure from unexpected economic growth and rising interest rates [3].

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年12月5日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 317600 | 309300 | 8300 | 2.68% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 200 | 250 | -50 | -20.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 318100 | 309800 | 8300 | 2.68% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 133.00 | 92.00 | 41.00 | 44.57% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -17412.99 | -16070.31 | -1342.68 | -8.36% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market will be divided into a "buy the expectation" phase before the official appointment of the next Fed Chair in May 2026 and a "sell the reality" phase after the appointment. In the "buy the expectation" phase, the "shadow chair" will guide market expectations towards aggressive rate cuts, leading to specific price movements in major asset classes. In the "sell the reality" phase, the Fed's monetary policy path is likely to be cautious due to various constraints, and the market will shift its focus and face increased volatility. Additionally, the possibility of the Fed expanding its balance sheet in 2026 and its potential impact on the market should also be closely monitored [22][27][29]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs I. Key Events for Focus on Fed Independence - The independence of the Fed is the cornerstone of the US dollar's credit, influencing global capital flows and commodity pricing. Trump has tried to influence the Fed through various means, such as frequent calls for rate cuts, attempts to dismiss Cook, and appointing new理事. The next key points of focus are the selection of the next Fed Chair and the progress of the dismissal case of Cook, which will affect the market's re - evaluation of the Fed's rate - cut path in 2026 [5][8][11]. II. "Advanced Tests" for Fed Chair Candidates 2.1 Selection and Appointment Process of the Fed Chair - The process includes candidate selection and evaluation (July - December 2025), where the candidates have been reduced from 11 to 5; the President's official nomination (January 2026), which signals the President's expectation for future monetary policy; the Senate confirmation process (average 4 months), including hearings, committee voting, and full - Senate voting; and the oath - taking ceremony (May 2026) [13][15][16]. 2.2 "Advanced Tests" for Fed Chair Candidates - Test 1: Candidates must have Fed理事 qualifications. If non -理事 candidates are considered, they may need to fill a即将出现的理事 vacancy first. Key time points to watch are January 21, 2026 (Supreme Court oral debate on Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook) and January 31, 2026 (Miran's理事 term expiration) [18][19]. - Test 2: Senate confirmation faces challenges related to partisan differences and Fed independence. If Hassett is nominated, concerns about his close association with Trump and his past controversial remarks may lead to opposition in the Senate, and the final result depends on the Senate's review and game [20]. III. Market Impact: Expectations and Reality of the Fed's "Shadow Chair" 3.1 "Buy the Expectation" Phase: Before the May 2026 Official Appointment - The "shadow chair" will publicly state an aggressive dovish stance, guiding the market to expect rate cuts. As a result, the US dollar index tends to weaken, US Treasury yields decline, and commodity prices rise, with precious metals being the core target of loose trading. However, conflicts between the "shadow chair" and Powell or setbacks in market expectations may increase asset volatility [27][28]. 3.2 "Sell the Reality" Phase: After the May 2026 Official Appointment - After the new Fed Chair is appointed, the Fed's monetary policy is likely to be "hesitant in decision - making and cautious in implementation" due to economic dual - differentiation, FOMC internal differences, and concerns about Fed independence. The market will shift its focus, and volatility will increase. The US dollar remains weak, and commodities will be more influenced by their own supply - demand [29][30][31]. - In 2026, the possibility of the Fed expanding its balance sheet should be closely monitored. If it occurs, it is more of a technical operation for liquidity management, with a scale much smaller than previous QE, and its impact on assets is mainly "liquidity repair" [34][35].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that international gold prices have shown a rebound after hitting a low, suggesting potential for further strength in the future [1] - On the previous trading day, gold opened at $4203.37 per ounce, reached a low of $4175.18, and closed at $4208.64, with a daily fluctuation of $44.15 and a gain of $5.27, representing an increase of 0.125% [3] - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, influenced by a drop in initial jobless claims to 191,000, a three-year low, which pressured gold prices down, while expectations of interest rate cuts and buying support are providing upward momentum [3] Group 2 - Looking ahead, gold prices are expected to open weakly due to the recent rise in the US dollar index, but remain above the middle track, indicating potential buying opportunities [3] - The dollar index is in a downward channel and below the 200-day moving average resistance, suggesting a generally weak outlook for the dollar, which could be favorable for gold prices [3]