Report Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC FUTURES provides operation ratings for various commodities on January 13, 2026. The ratings are as follows: Threaded steel (★★★), Hot-rolled steel (★★★), Iron ore (★★★), Coke (★☆☆), Coking coal (★☆☆), Silicon manganese (★★☆), Silicon iron (★★☆) [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of range-bound oscillation. The demand for downstream industries is weak, and the export remains high. The market sentiment is cautious, and the rebound momentum is insufficient, but there is still support below [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is weak, and the winter - storage replenishment expectation still exists. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of increased volatility at high levels [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be in a strong - oscillation state. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level in the off - season, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are recommended to buy on dips. The silicon manganese has a structural problem in port inventory, and the silicon iron is affected by relevant policies and has certain demand resilience [7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market oscillates. In the off - season, the apparent demand for threaded steel declines, and the inventory accumulates. The demand for hot - rolled steel falls, and the inventory is slowly depleted. The steel mill's profit is marginally repaired, and the blast furnace is gradually restarted. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the export remains high. The market sentiment is cautious, and the range - bound oscillation pattern may continue [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillates. The global shipment decreases seasonally, the domestic arrival volume increases, and the port inventory accumulates. The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, the iron - water production is at the bottom, and it is difficult to resume production significantly in the short term. The steel mill's imported ore inventory increases, and the winter - storage replenishment expectation exists. The market sentiment is volatile, and the short - term oscillation is expected [3] Coke - The coke price oscillates downward during the day. The transaction price rises sporadically, the coking profit is average, and the daily output slightly increases. The inventory hardly changes. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level, and the price is likely to be in a strong - oscillation state [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillates downward during the day. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1520 vehicles. The coking coal mine output slightly decreases, and the spot auction transaction improves. The total inventory increases significantly. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level, and the price is likely to be in a strong - oscillation state [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillates. Driven by the futures rebound, the manganese ore spot price rises. There is a structural problem in the manganese ore port inventory. The iron - water production decreases seasonally, the weekly output of silicon manganese slightly decreases, and the inventory slightly decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price oscillates. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market expects a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The iron - water production rebounds, the export demand decreases, and the secondary demand increases marginally. The supply decreases significantly, and the inventory slightly decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]

一则出口退税的消息将碳酸锂价格推上高潮，期货合约全面涨停，近期以势不可挡的趋势，走出了加速通道，1月份短短7个交易日涨幅已高达40%，锂电板 块迎来狂欢。 智通财经APP了解到，近日财政部、税务总局近日发布的公告，自2026年4月1日起至12月31日，电池产品增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%，2027年1月1日 起彻底取消。受该消息提振，碳酸锂期货合约全面涨停，其中主力合约2605一字涨停，次日主力合约再次涨停，而2026年开年以来涨幅已达40%。港A股锂 电板块跟随大涨，AH龙头赣锋锂业（01772）领涨，港股两日涨幅近10%。 供需仍偏紧，有利润空间下游或博弈 从供给端来看，目前供需基本达成平衡，2025年12月份需求量总需求量已超过总供给量，1月份预期偏紧状态。而库存方面，去年下半年开始就持续性去 库，加上期间停产及检修，库存基本见底，这也导致了政策驱动下的抢货潮。从趋势上看，政策依旧是后期产能供给最核心的影响要素。 碳酸锂"产能"未来有缩紧的预期，主要为2026年"反内卷"仍为行业主题，在政策上综合整治"内卷式"竞争，对新增产能进行严控。在今年1月份，政府部门 印发《关于固体废物综合治理行动计划的通知 ...

Economic Overview - The economy is showing moderate recovery at the beginning of the year, supported by resilient domestic demand and improvements in external demand and production[1] - High-frequency data indicates that automotive consumption is boosted by trade-in subsidies, while service consumption has weakened marginally post-New Year[3] Investment Insights - Special bond issuance has been advanced, potentially stabilizing infrastructure investment in Q1, although the real estate sector remains weak[3] - In the first two weeks of January, special bonds worth CNY 110.2 billion were issued, compared to zero in the same period last year, indicating a shift in issuance pace[7] Trade and Production - External trade conditions are improving, with both export volume and price rising; port operation data shows a year-on-year increase in most metrics[7] - Production is generally recovering, with operating rates in the steel, petrochemical, and chlor-alkali sectors rising[7] Pricing Trends - Consumer prices are weak, with the iCPI index decreasing by 0.53% month-on-month; however, industrial prices are mostly rising, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and lithium carbonate sectors[7] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged by 74.5% year-on-year due to tight supply and demand from emerging industries[10] Liquidity and Interest Rates - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 rising by 6.3 basis points and DR007 by 4.4 basis points compared to the previous week[8] - The 10-year government bond yield increased by 3.1 basis points to 1.88%, while the one-year yield decreased by 4.9 basis points to 1.28%[8] Risks - There are uncertainties regarding trade conditions and the potential for domestic demand recovery to fall short of expectations[12]

Group 1: Market Performance - The market experienced a significant rally with all three major indices rising over 1%, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.09%, marking a 17-day consecutive increase [1] - The trading volume reached a historical record of 3.6 trillion yuan, surpassing 3 trillion yuan for the second consecutive trading day, and breaking the previous record set on October 8, 2024, by an increase of 478.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Analysis - The domestic economic outlook is stable, with a narrowing decline in food prices and an increase in industrial product prices, indicating improved production post-holiday [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year, supported by a 1.1% rise in food prices, particularly in vegetables and meat [6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 0.3 percentage points, influenced by anti-involution policies [6] Group 3: International Economic Insights - The U.S. labor market remains stable, with non-farm payroll data meeting expectations, indicating a cautious hiring environment [7] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for December recorded the lowest level for 2025, while the ISM services PMI rose to 54.4, indicating strong expansion in the services sector [9] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate in January, with potential uncertainty surrounding the nomination of a new chair [9] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The medium-term outlook for gold remains bullish, supported by expectations of U.S. monetary and fiscal easing, with China's gold reserves increasing to 7.415 million ounces [10] - The equity market outlook is positive, with a focus on high-growth sectors such as commercial aerospace, AI, and new energy, while maintaining a balanced investment approach [11]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the lithium battery industry and the new energy vehicle market in China, highlighting trends, policy changes, and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points on Lithium Battery Industry - **Strong Production Data**: Despite the off-season, production data remains robust, indicating strong demand bolstered by export tax rebate policies, particularly benefiting separator and lithium-containing material investments [1][3]. - **Anti-Dumping Meeting Insights**: The recent anti-dumping meeting emphasized capacity, pricing, intellectual property, and quality supervision. It aims to strengthen market price enforcement and cost monitoring, ensuring healthy industry development [4]. - **Export Tax Policy Changes**: Starting April 1, 2026, certain lithium battery materials will see export tax rebates canceled, while lithium batteries will have a one-year buffer period. This policy is expected to enhance the bargaining power and technical strength of Chinese companies [5]. - **Material Price Increases**: Recent price hikes for ternary cathodes, lithium iron phosphate, and electrolytes have been confirmed, with increases of approximately 1,000-2,000 yuan for large customers and even higher for smaller ones, positively impacting industry chain profits [6][12]. - **Positive Outlook for 2026**: The lithium materials sector is expected to perform well, with continuous price increases for separators and a surge in equipment orders from leading companies [7][8]. Solid-State Battery Developments - **Initial Mass Production**: The solid-state battery sector is entering its initial mass production phase in 2026, with several companies beginning vehicle testing and making significant progress in lithium sulfide and auxiliary materials [9]. New Energy Vehicle Market Insights - **2025 Performance**: In 2025, China's new energy vehicle retail sales reached 12.809 million units, a 15% year-on-year increase, while wholesale sales grew over 25% [10]. - **2026 Projections**: The market is expected to maintain strong growth in 2026, driven by policy support, trade-in programs, and increased penetration of commercial vehicles [2][10]. Additional Industry Developments - **Storage Systems Growth**: The domestic storage system bidding volume reached approximately 9.3 GWh in December 2025, reflecting a strong demand and significant year-on-year growth [13][14]. - **Sodium-Ion Battery Advancements**: CATL plans to promote sodium-ion batteries across various applications, with mass production of materials expected this year, alongside improvements in charging and swapping infrastructure [15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments within the lithium battery and new energy vehicle sectors, highlighting the anticipated growth and ongoing changes in policies and market dynamics.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for the sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of rising prices for memory, copper, aluminum, and key components, which are expected to lead to an increase in consumer vehicle prices. It suggests focusing on supply chain companies with good supply-demand dynamics and price transmission capabilities, as well as mid-to-high-end vehicle manufacturers with model cycles [2]. - The report notes that the average daily retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 123,000 units in the last week of December, a year-on-year increase of 17% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the recently implemented green consumption policies, which aim to support the purchase of new energy vehicles and enhance the automotive industry's supply chain [11][12]. Market Updates - The automotive industry recorded a total transaction value of 638.35 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 11.27%. The automotive industry index rose by 2.53% during the week [2][13]. - The report indicates that the automotive industry index's growth was lower than that of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 2.79% [13]. - The report lists significant stock movements, with 201 stocks rising and 68 falling, highlighting the top gainers and losers in the automotive sector [19]. Key Events - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the 403rd batch of new vehicle approvals, featuring several notable models from various manufacturers [3][4]. - The report discusses the rising cost pressures in the automotive industry due to increasing memory prices, which are becoming a significant factor affecting profitability [6][8]. - The report mentions a strategic cooperation agreement between CATL and NIO, focusing on battery technology and market collaboration [36]. Financial Metrics - The automotive sector's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 30.20, ranking 18th among all primary industries, indicating a moderate valuation compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index's 14.41 [16][18].

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a rebound, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a significant increase, reaching a maximum intraday gain of 1.56% and closing up by 0.89% [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Kasei Bio, which surged by 12.54%, and Salt Lake Co., which rose by 7.13%, among others [1][2] - Recent capital inflow into the chemical sector has been strong, with the chemical ETF accumulating a net subscription of 560 million yuan over the last five trading days and over 910 million yuan in the last ten days [2] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [3] - The chemical industry is expected to undergo a revaluation, as its industry position and profit levels do not align, with potential recovery in profitability anticipated [3] - The chemical sector is at a new starting point of supply-demand rebalancing, influenced by policies aimed at reshaping competition and advancements in new production capabilities [3] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry theme index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks, providing an opportunity for investors to capitalize on strong performers [4] - Investors can also access the chemical ETF through linked funds, enhancing investment efficiency in the chemical sector [4]

Group 1 - The chemical sector has regained momentum, with the chemical ETF (516020) opening strong and reaching a maximum intraday increase of 1.56%, closing up 0.89% by midday [1][7] - Key stocks in the sector include potassium fertilizers, phosphorus chemicals, and lithium batteries, with notable gains from companies like Kaisa Bio (up 12.54%) and Salt Lake Co. (up 7.13%) [1][7] Group 2 - The chemical sector has seen continuous capital inflow, with a net subscription of 560 million yuan for the chemical ETF (516020) over the last five trading days and over 910 million yuan in the last ten days [3][9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for December 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, with a narrowing drop of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking three consecutive months of growth [3][8] Group 3 - Guojin Securities suggests that the large chemical industry is likely to be revalued, as its industry position and profitability are mismatched, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [3][10] - Huafu Securities notes that the chemical industry has experienced a bottoming out of profits and valuations in 2025, with expectations for a rebound in profitability in 2026, driven by supply-demand rebalancing and new production capabilities [3][10] Group 4 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry theme index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, providing an opportunity for investors to capitalize on strong performers [4][10] - Investors can also access the chemical ETF through linked funds (Class A 012537/Class C 012538) for efficient exposure to the chemical sector [4][11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy proposal from the Shaanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission regarding differentiated electricity pricing for high-energy-consuming industries is gaining attention, indicating a new policy direction for these sectors [1] Industry Policy - The proposed policy includes charging higher electricity fees for restricted and eliminated capacities in industries such as electric stone and caustic soda, which, although not yet implemented, provides a new approach to address overcapacity in high-energy-consuming sectors [1] - The high-energy-consuming chemical sub-industries are currently at the bottom of the cycle, with only leading companies that own self-sufficient power plants achieving excess profits [1] Industry Trends - The introduction of the "Petrochemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" is expected to enhance technological innovation capabilities, expand new market and application demands, and allow for scientific regulation of the supply side, accelerating the transformation and upgrading of the petrochemical industry [1] - Capital expenditure in the chemical sector is nearing its end, with ongoing construction projects declining for three consecutive quarters year-on-year, alongside the elimination of outdated facilities and the deepening of "anti-involution" policies, leading to a significant improvement in the marginal supply side [1] - By Q3 2025, the overall ROE of the petrochemical industry index is expected to slightly rebound to 10.1%, indicating a clearer bottoming trend, while the price-to-earnings ratio remains around the central level of the past decade, making the valuation of the sector worth noting [1] Related Products - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) offers a bundled investment in leading companies in the oil, petrochemical, and basic chemical industries, closely aligning with the "dumbbell strategy" in the petrochemical sector, while also including high dividend and high growth components [2] - The management and custody fees for the E Fund Chemical Industry ETF are 0.15% and 0.05% per year, significantly lower than similar ETF products in the petrochemical sector, effectively reducing cost expenditures for investors and providing a higher cost-performance ratio for exposure to the favorable development opportunities in the petrochemical industry [2]

Macro Strategy - The report anticipates a "good start" for financial data in January 2026, driven by seasonal factors and government fiscal policies [1][11] - The U.S. economy shows mixed signals, with a surprising drop in unemployment alleviating some market concerns, while geopolitical tensions and unresolved tariff issues add uncertainty [1][11] - The expectation for Q1 2026 is a potential upward pulse in the U.S. economy, benefiting risk assets like equities and commodities [1][11] Financial Products - A-share trading volume surpassed 30 trillion yuan, indicating heightened trading sentiment, but also suggesting potential for increased short-term volatility [2][12] - The macro timing model for January 2026 scores 0, historically correlating with a 76.92% probability of A-share index gains in the following month [2][12] - The report recommends a balanced ETF allocation strategy, focusing on sectors showing strength and those rebounding from lows [2][12] Fixed Income - The report discusses the "stock-bond seesaw effect," highlighting a steepening yield curve under a loose monetary policy environment [5][14] - The central economic work conference indicates a flexible approach to monetary policy, with potential for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions in Q1 2026 [5][14] - The bond market is experiencing adjustments, with a notable shift of funds from bonds to equities, influenced by strong stock market performance [5][14] Industry Recommendations - Xianle Health (300791) is highlighted for its commitment to innovation and growth potential in the health sector [7] - WeRide (00800.HK) is positioned as a leader in the Robotaxi space, expected to benefit from policy support and technological advancements, with projected revenues increasing significantly from 5.55 billion yuan in 2025 to 19.87 billion yuan by 2027 [7] - Haidilao (06862.HK) maintains a strong market position with a focus on operational efficiency and new brand development, projecting net profits to grow from 42.28 billion yuan in 2025 to 51.13 billion yuan in 2027 [8] - Lingyun Co. (600480) is recognized for its leadership in the automotive parts sector, with expected net profits rising from 8.01 billion yuan in 2025 to 10.55 billion yuan in 2027 [9]