1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the domestic supply has significant pressure, with soybean inventory at a record - high level. There is no immediate improvement in short - term US soybean imports, and the soybean meal de - stocking season provides some support. In the medium term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, so the strategy is to sell on rebounds [2][3]. - For palm oil, the production in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the market. There is a possibility that the current high - supply and inventory - building situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The strategy is to wait and see for clearer production signals [5][7]. - For sugar, the data of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in September is bearish but in line with expectations. With expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere and high production in Brazil, the overall view is bearish, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [8][9]. - For cotton, the demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new year, resulting in high selling - hedging pressure. Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven up the Zhengzhou cotton price, the upward space is limited [11][12]. - For eggs, the spot price may rebound, but the space is limited due to high supply. The short - term conditions for a significant increase are not met, and the market is expected to bottom out weakly. It is advisable to wait and see [14][16]. - For pigs, the market was previously pessimistic, but the consumption has recovered after the temperature drop. The market may be bullish in the short term but bearish in the medium term due to the post - poned supply pressure. It is recommended to wait for rebounds to sell [18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose. US soybean exports are expected to improve due to recent negotiations with India and Japan. On Wednesday, the domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 20 yuan, with weak trading and good pick - up. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises decreased by 0.41 days to 7.93 days last week, and the port soybean inventory and oil - mill soybean meal inventory are both decreasing. MYSTEEL estimates that the domestic oil - mill soybean crushing volume will be 2.3335 million tons this week, up from 2.166 million tons last week. As of October 18, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 21.7%, higher than last week (11.1%) but lower than the five - year average (27.7%) [2]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds in the medium term [3]. Fats and Oils - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 20, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the production also increased. From January - September 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption increased by nearly 10% year - on - year. Indonesia plans to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% in the second half of 2026. On Wednesday, domestic fats and oils prices dropped, and the high production in Malaysia and Indonesia is suppressing the market. The international palm oil market is currently balanced, with a tightening expectation in the first quarter of next year. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for clearer production signals [7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing factories all dropped. Datagro estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil will reach 43.2 million tons in the next crushing season, an increase of 1.78 million tons. Brazil's national oil company lowered the gasoline price by 4.9%. From the first three weeks of October, Brazil's sugar exports increased by 6% compared to the daily average of the whole month of October last year [8]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated slightly. The spot price of cotton increased, and the Xinjiang cotton purchase price also rose slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited [12]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with slight increases. The supply is normal, and the market sales are average. The egg price is expected to be stable with slight increases in some areas [14]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the market is expected to bottom out weakly [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price rose yesterday. The enthusiasm of farmers for selling pigs is average, and the market still has a willingness to support prices. However, the digestion of high - priced pigs is difficult, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has cooled down. The pig price is expected to rise in some areas and decline slightly in high - price areas [18]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the short term and bearish in the medium term, sell on rebounds [19].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, weather conditions in major production areas, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - news, and fund flows. It also offers insights into potential impacts on the market based on these factors. 3. Summary by Section Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented, such as the BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, etc. For example, the BMD palm oil 01 closed at 4495.00 with a - 0.13% daily and - 0.29% overnight change [1]. - The latest prices and percentage changes of currency exchange rates, including the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are given. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.95 with a 0.34% change [1]. Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are reported. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9490 with a basis of 90 and a 0 - change [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium/discounts for imported soybeans from different origins are provided. For example, the CNF quote for Brazilian soybeans is 488 dollars/ton with a 278 - cent/bu premium [2]. Production Area Weather - In the US, the soybean - producing states will have above - normal temperatures and precipitation from October 26 - 30. The Midwest will have limited precipitation from an approaching front, and the rainfall may relieve drought but delay crop harvest [3][5]. - Brazil will be drier this week, which is generally favorable for crops. A front will bring rain later, and the dry weather may allow farmers to plant soybeans quickly [6][7]. International Supply - Demand - SPPOMA reports that Malaysian palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71% month - on - month. AmSpec indicates that the palm oil export volume from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month [9]. - Anec forecasts that Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in October will be 734 and 209 million tons respectively [10]. - EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed in the 2025/26 season are lower than the same period last year [11]. - Wet weather in Ukraine has damaged sunflower and soybean crops, reducing production forecasts [11][12]. - Australia's August rapeseed exports increased compared to July but decreased compared to the same month in 2024. The 2025/26 crop harvest has just begun [12]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 1.1% to 2094 points, supported by the increase in Capesize and Panamax freight rates [13]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On October 21, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 59% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill operating rate increased slightly [15]. - As of October 21, the national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 3.1 million tons compared to October 14 [15]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 21. The prices of various agricultural products showed different changes [15]. Macro - news - International: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 98.9%. The annual growth rate of US Redbook retail sales from October 1 - 18 was 5%. The US API crude inventory decreased by 298.1 million barrels in the week ending October 17 [17]. - Domestic: On October 21, the USD/CNY exchange rate was adjusted downwards by 43 points, and the Chinese central bank conducted 1595 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 685 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows - On October 21, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 12.172 billion yuan, including 3.152 billion yuan in commodity futures (with a 102 - million - yuan net outflow in agricultural futures, 319 - million - yuan net inflow in chemical futures, 874 - million - yuan net outflow in black - series futures, and 3.808 - billion - yuan net inflow in metal futures), 8.542 billion yuan in stock - index futures, and 385 million yuan in bond futures [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Red Star**: Indicates a predicted trend of rising. Three stars represent a clearer long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities; two stars represent holding long, with a clearer rising trend and the market fermenting on the trading board; one star represents a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading board [11]. - **Green Star**: Indicates a predicted trend of falling. Three stars represent a clearer short trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities; two stars represent holding short, with a clearer falling trend and the market fermenting on the trading board; one star represents a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decrease but poor operability on the trading board [11]. - **White Star**: Indicates that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading board has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [11]. - **Specific Ratings**: - **Bullish Bias**: Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1]. - **Bearish Bias**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Eggs [1]. - **Unrated**: Live Pigs [1]. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of agricultural products has different characteristics, and the market is affected by multiple factors such as trade relations, policies, and seasonal patterns. Different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and investment decisions should be made according to specific situations [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans are strong, continuing the oscillating rebound trend. The market participants are actively purchasing new grains, and last week's auction provides pricing reference. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is still expanding. Short - term US soybean crushing data is strong, but the export demand is uncertain. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress and market policies [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The sales progress of new - season US soybeans is slow, but US crushing has increased. The current domestic soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is high. The overall supply in the fourth quarter is not a big problem, but if the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates and lasts, the supply in the first quarter of next year may tighten. In the context of high supply and high inventory, if the Sino - US trade does not ease, the soybean meal futures are likely to continue to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Short - term strong US soybean crushing data boosts the market, but the export demand is uncertain. The near - term demand for palm oil in the international market is weak, but the far - term demand has an expectation of increased biodiesel blending ratio in the Indonesian market. In the fourth quarter, palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle and has resilience. It is expected that oils are stronger than meals in the long - term, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed has extremely low inventory and low operating rate, and the supply side has a strong willingness to support prices. The Canadian rapeseed market maintains high crushing and low exports. The economic and trade relationship is the most important influencing factor. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions and pay attention to the marginal changes in economic and trade relations [6]. Corn - The autumn harvest progress in the Huanghuai region is slow. The spot price of Northeast corn has rebounded slightly, but the impact is small. The supply of Shandong corn is decreasing, and the price is stabilizing. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The supply of new corn in the Northeast will continue to increase in the next two weeks, and Dalian corn is likely to continue to operate weakly at the bottom, with increased volatility [7]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has rebounded after reaching the bottom last week, mainly driven by second - fattening, increased consumption due to temperature drop, and frozen product storage. However, the later supply pressure is still large, and it is expected that the pig price may have a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The sentiment of the egg spot market has weakened again. The egg futures opened lower and increased positions on Monday. The old - hen culling is still cautious, and the cold - storage eggs have not been fully sold, which is a potential pressure on the spot market. The short - selling trend on the trading board continues, and a short - selling mindset should be maintained [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The m2601 soybean meal contract is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later period. The RM601 rapeseed meal contract is also in an oscillating downward stage, with the price center expected to drop [3]. - For soybean meal, externally, the US soybean harvest season has begun, presenting phased harvesting pressure, and there is no substantial progress in the China-US tariff agreement. Domestically, the recent import of soybeans for crushing remains sufficient, the inventory pressure of soybean meal needs to be digested, and the downstream feed demand boost is limited. In the short term, affected by the US soybean harvest pressure and the suspension of Argentina's export tariffs, the soybean meal is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the digestion of domestic soybean meal inventory pressure [3]. - For rapeseed meal, globally, the supply and demand pattern of rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is expected to be looser, suppressing the rapeseed price. In China, due to policies and high - margin requirements for imports and tariff restrictions, the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to tighten. However, the downstream demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to the substitution consumption of rapeseed meal. It is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. In the short term, it will follow the decline of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of rapeseed meal and the changes in China - Canada trade relations [3]. Summary According to the Directory International Supply and Demand US Soybean Supply and Demand - The US soybean harvest is advancing, and the USDA report release is postponed due to the government shutdown. The CBOT soybean price has a slight rebound but is expected to be weak overall. As of September 28, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 62%, and the harvest rate was 19% [14][15]. - From September 1, 2025, the old - crop soybean inventory in the US was 316 million bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6%. As of October 7, about 39% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought [16]. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazil's new - crop soybean sowing is advancing, with the main - producing state of Mato Grosso having a relatively fast sowing progress. China's procurement supports the firmness of Brazilian soybean premiums. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is estimated to be 48.6 million hectares, with an expected output of 176.7 million tons. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean output is expected to be 43.6 million tons [36][37]. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed output is expected to increase by 5.23 million tons year - on - year, with the EU and Canada having increased production. The consumption demand increases by 2.06%, and the international rapeseed trade volume is expected to decline. Canada's rapeseed harvest is nearly half - completed, and the overall output is expected to remain at a relatively high level. China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed suppress its export demand and the international rapeseed price [65]. CFTC Positions - As of September 23, 2025, the CBOT soybean non - commercial long - position quantity, non - commercial short - position quantity, and total position quantity are provided, as well as the relevant data for CBOT soybean meal [54][57]. Domestic Supply and Demand Domestic Import Situation - In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 609,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.11%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 73.312 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills in October is about 9.49 million tons [79]. - The supply of rapeseed meal includes the import and crushing of rapeseed and the direct import of rapeseed meal. The import of rapeseed in October is estimated to be 0 tons, 600,000 tons in November, and 850,000 tons in December [80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing - Startup Rate - As of the week of September 26, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.7557 million tons, with a startup rate of 49.01%. It is expected that in the 41st week (October 4 - 10), the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills will be 1.357 million tons, with a startup rate of 37.88%. The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal major oil mills is 20,000 tons, with a startup rate of 5.33% this week, and is expected to be 18,000 tons next week, with a startup rate of 4.80% [101]. Import Cost and Pressing Profit - The import cost of soybeans from different origins and shipping periods is presented, along with the soybean crushing profit on the futures market, import freight, FOB price, and premium [108][109]. - The import cost of Canadian rapeseed and the rapeseed crushing profit on the futures market and in the spot market are also provided [116]. Inventory - As of the week of September 28, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 1.1991 million tons, an increase of 3.63% from the previous week and 14.3% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, a decrease of 4.86% from the previous week and 3.04% year - on - year. The rapeseed inventory of coastal major oil mills was 26,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 15,000 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous week [118]. Transaction - During the holiday, the soybean meal transaction was light. On the first trading day after the holiday, the total soybean meal transaction of major domestic oil mills was 223,800 tons, an increase of 185,700 tons from the previous trading day. The downstream feed enterprises made appropriate purchases, and the market trading enthusiasm was fair [133]. Downstream Demand - The monthly feed output in August 2025 is provided, along with the prices of pig and egg - poultry feeds, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising pigs,外购仔猪, white - feather broilers, and laying hens [138][140].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soybean/Meal**: In the medium - term, with high domestic soybean inventory and expected global supply surplus, the general strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short - term, due to tariff issues, it will mainly trade in a range [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: Medium - term, there is support for oils and fats. Before inventory accumulates and demand shows negative feedback, a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Short - term, due to trade war concerns, it's advisable to wait and see [5][6]. - **Sugar**: With expected increases in production in major northern hemisphere countries and high production in Brazil's central - south region, it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - **Cotton**: Given weak fundamentals and macro - negative impacts, short - term cotton prices are likely to decline [12][13]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, a bearish view on near - term contracts is appropriate. In the medium - term, there may be a rebound during the stocking period. In the long - term, sell on rallies [15][16]. - **Pigs**: In the fourth quarter, there is large supply pressure. For near - term contracts, reduce short positions. After spot prices stabilize, consider a 13 - positive spread strategy. For far - term contracts, maintain a reverse spread strategy [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Information**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans fell due to Sino - US trade concerns. Domestic soybean meal prices rose over the weekend. MYSTEEL predicts this week's domestic soybean crushing volume to be 216.74 million tons. Import soybean costs face both support and pressure [2]. - **Strategy**: Medium - term, sell on rallies; short - term, trade in a range [2][3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10 increased compared to the same period last month. The 2026 average price of crude palm oil is expected to be between 3900 - 4100 Malaysian ringgit per ton. Last Friday, domestic oils and fats prices fell [5]. - **Strategy**: Medium - term, buy on dips; short - term, wait and see [5][6]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Last Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. Brazilian sugar production data shows an increase in the first half of September. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Last Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose first and then fell. Trump announced additional tariffs on Chinese imports, and China responded with counter - measures [12]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, expect price decline [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable over the weekend. Supply is large, and consumption is weak. Egg prices are expected to be weak in early October and may rebound slightly later [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, bearish on near - term contracts; medium - term, expect a rebound; long - term, sell on rallies [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices continued to fall over the weekend, with some areas stabilizing. Supply is abundant, and some farmers are selling pigs actively [18]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions on near - term contracts; consider a 13 - positive spread after spot prices stabilize; maintain a reverse spread for far - term contracts [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro - news, and capital flows. It covers multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and their derivatives, as well as related macro - economic indicators and policy actions. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures contract 12 was 4396.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.99% [1]. - Brent crude oil futures contract 12 on ICE closed at 68.82, with a previous - day increase of 0.03% and an overnight decline of 1.40% [1]. - NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract 11 closed at 65.19, with a previous - day decline of 0.05% and an overnight decline of 1.72% [1]. - CBOT soybean futures contract 11 closed at 1014.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.20% and an overnight decline of 0.07% [1]. - The US dollar index was at 98.16, with a decline of 0.28% [1]. 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - For DCE palm oil futures contract 2601, the spot price in North China was 9340, with a basis of 90 and a daily basis change of - 10 [2]. - For DCE soybean oil futures contract 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 8420, with a basis of 222 [2]. - For DCE soybean meal futures contract 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 2920, with a basis of - 25 and a daily basis change of 11 [2]. - The CNF quote for Brazilian imported soybeans was 478 dollars per ton, with a CNF premium of 290 cents per bushel [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 3.1 Production Area Weather - From October 1 to 5, high - temperature conditions will continue in major US soybean - producing states, with varying precipitation levels [3]. - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and this week, which is conducive to corn harvesting. However, scattered showers may delay the harvesting progress in the south and east regions until Thursday, but the drought situation may improve [5]. 3.2 International Supply and Demand - From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, with a 3.19% decrease in yield per unit area and a 0.18% decrease in oil extraction rate [7]. - From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil product exports were 795,947 tons, a 14.73% decrease compared to the same period last month [7]. - India's edible oil imports in the 2025/26 fiscal year are expected to increase by 4.6% to a record 17.1 million tons, driven by a 13.4% surge in palm oil imports to 9.3 million tons [8]. - As of the week ending September 23, CBOT soybean long positions decreased by 1407 lots to 165,944 lots, and short positions increased by 14,032 lots to 160,196 lots [8]. - Brazil's 2025/26 new - season soybean planting has started rapidly, with 4.16% of the expected planting area already sown, compared to 0.54% in the same period last year [9]. - As of last Friday, the soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 5.97%, much faster than the 0.53% in the same period last year [9]. - After Argentina suspended the grain export tax from last Tuesday to Wednesday, it still has 7.6 million tons of soybean derivatives and 8.9 million tons of corn available for export, with a total value of 4.93 billion dollars [9]. - Consulting firm Expana has raised its forecast for EU rapeseed production in the current year to 20.4 million tons, a 21.4% increase from the previous year [10]. - As of the week ending September 24, the rapeseed harvesting rate in Saskatchewan, Canada, was 41.7% [10]. - In 2024, rapeseed accounted for less than a quarter of the raw materials for biodiesel and renewable diesel in Canada. Canada imported a large amount of used biodiesel and renewable diesel [11]. - On Friday, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 7 points or 0.31% to 2259 points, with a weekly increase of 2.5% [12]. 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On September 28, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 0 tons, a 100% decrease compared to the previous trading day [14]. - On September 28, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 30,500 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons compared to the previous trading day [14]. - In the 39th week (September 20 - 26), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2672 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.28%, 120,600 tons lower than the forecast [14]. - As of the week ending September 26, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was a loss of 74.11 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 236.57 yuan per head [15]. - On September 28, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 118.85, up 0.07 points from last Friday [15]. 04 Macroeconomic News 4.1 International News - The final value of the US one - year inflation rate expectation in September was 4.7%, lower than the expected 4.8% [17]. - The final value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September was 55.1, lower than the expected 55.4 [17]. - The US core PCE price index annual rate in August was 2.9%, in line with expectations [17]. - The EU has appealed the panel report on the Indonesian biodiesel import tariff dispute at the WTO [17]. 4.2 Domestic News - On September 26, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1152, up 34 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [19]. - On September 26, the People's Bank of China conducted 165.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 188.5 billion yuan [19]. - In August, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared to a 1.5% decline in the previous month [20]. - The third - quarter (110th) regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China was held on September 23, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [20]. 05 Capital Flows - On September 26, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 7.678 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 7.205 billion yuan in the commodity futures market, 246 million yuan in the stock index futures market, and 132 million yuan in the treasury bond futures market [22]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Protein Meal**: In the short - term, the domestic supply of soybeans has great pressure, and the temporary cancellation of export tax in Argentina drives the downward movement of soybean meal. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of short - selling on rebounds. However, due to the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will fluctuate within a range [3][5]. - **Oils**: The center of the oil market is supported by factors such as low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil from the US biodiesel policy draft, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and expected decline in export volume due to growing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia. In the medium - term, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. Currently, with high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips after stabilization [9]. - **Sugar**: Affected by factors such as the record - high domestic sugar imports in August and a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. However, from a technical perspective, there may be a short - term rebound [12]. - **Cotton**: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the growth of the downstream industrial chain's operating rate is weak, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - month. So, the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is bearish. But due to the low domestic cotton inventory and relatively low prices, there may be support below, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - month futures contract is weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong due to the expected marginal improvement in supply - demand and capital game. It is recommended to wait and watch in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price of pigs is showing a slight accelerating downward trend. The futures market is expected to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, US soybeans rebounded weakly. Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tax is bearish for the international soybean system. The domestic soybean meal spot price fell by about 60 yuan/ton, and the transaction was good with high pick - up volume. Last week, the domestic port soybean inventory decreased by 700,000 tons, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 90,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The total scale of about $7 billion for soybeans, corn, and wheat in Argentina corresponds to approximately 7 - 8 million tons of soybean products (converted to soybeans). The supply of global protein raw materials is in surplus, and Brazil may continue to expand its planting area [3]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, there may be a downward trend. In the medium - term, the strategy is to short - sell on rebounds, but the market will fluctuate within a range [5]. Oils - **Market Situation**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports and production showed different trends. On September 23, the Malaysian palm oil's offshore price, import arrival price, and import cost price all declined. On Tuesday, the prices of the three major domestic oils dropped significantly [7]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The export of Malaysian palm oil is still weak year - on - year, indicating low import willingness of demand countries or high production in Indonesia. Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tax on soybean oil is also bearish for international oils in the short - term [7]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. Currently, the strategy is to buy on dips after stabilization [9]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants also declined. Brazil's sugar exports in the first three weeks of September decreased by 11.12% year - on - year [11]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The high domestic sugar imports in August and the significant increase in Brazil's sugar production are bearish factors for sugar prices [12]. - **Strategy**: The overall trend is bearish, but there may be a short - term rebound [12]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall. The spot price of cotton also declined. As of September 19, the operating rates of spinning and weaving factories showed different trends, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased year - on - year. As of September 21, the US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased but was still higher than last year [14]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: It is the consumption season, but the downstream operating rate growth is weak, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - month [15]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is bearish, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [15]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: Yesterday, the national egg price was mainly stable, with a few areas seeing price adjustments. The supply was stable, and the overall sales were average [17]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The basic production capacity is still large, but there is room for marginal improvement. The demand has many uncertainties [18]. - **Strategy**: Wait and watch in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [18]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price was mainly stable with some areas showing weakness. The supply of pigs was abundant, and the increase in downstream procurement demand was limited [19]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The supply from large - scale farms has recovered more than expected, and the low demand has led to slow sales. There is also panic selling from small farmers [20]. - **Strategy**: Short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural sector [1] Core Insights - The USDA has revised down the global corn production forecast while increasing the consumption forecast, indicating a tightening supply situation [4][7] - The report highlights stable production and consumption forecasts for China's corn and soybean, with slight adjustments in global supply and demand dynamics [4][10][23] Summary by Sections Corn - Global corn production for the 2024/25 year is adjusted down to 128.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.16% from previous estimates, while consumption is projected to rise to 128.9 million tons [7][10] - The global corn stock-to-use ratio is forecasted to decline to 21.82%, reflecting tighter supply conditions [7] - In China, corn production is expected to remain stable at 29.5 million tons, with consumption also stable at 32.1 million tons, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 55.16% [10] Soybeans - Global soybean production is forecasted at 42.5 million tons, down 0.12%, with consumption slightly reduced to 42.3 million tons, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 29.25% [17][23] - China's soybean production remains stable at 21 million tons, with imports and consumption also unchanged, maintaining a stock-to-use ratio of 32.62% [23] Wheat - Global wheat production is projected to increase to 81.6 million tons, with consumption rising to 81.4 million tons, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 32.42% [29] - In China, wheat production is expected to hold steady at 14 million tons, with a stable stock-to-use ratio of 84.31% [35] Rice - Global rice production is adjusted down to 54.1 million tons, while consumption is expected to rise to 54.2 million tons, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 34.54% [39] - China's rice production and consumption forecasts remain stable, with a stock-to-use ratio of 71.23% [39]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, international supply - demand, trading volume, macro news, and fund flows. It details the price movements of various commodities, the impact of weather on crops, international trade policies, and macro - economic events that may influence the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 & 02 Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as BMD palm oil, ICE Brent, NYMEX crude oil, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are presented. For example, BMD palm oil 12 closed at 4424.00 with a - 0.23% decline [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Spot prices and basis for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. For instance, DCE palm oil 2601 in North China has a spot price of 9450 and a basis of 100 [2]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their changes for the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. are provided. The US dollar index is at 97.64 with a 0.29% increase [1]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions**: In the US, soybean - producing states will have generally high temperatures and above - median precipitation from September 24 - 28. The Midwest will have continuous showers, and the west may experience heavy rain, which may affect crop maturity and harvest [3][5]. - **International Supply - Demand**: Malaysia has raised its October CPO reference price to 4268.68 ringgit/ton, keeping the export tariff at 10%. As of September 16, CBOT soybean long - positions increased by 13,986 to 167,351. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate reached 0.7%, higher than previous years. Argentina's 2025/26 grain exports may reach a record 105.1 million tons [7][8]. 04 Macro News - **International News**: US Senate Democrats blocked a Republican - proposed temporary funding bill, risking a government shutdown. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the last two Fed meetings [16]. - **Domestic News**: On September 19, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1128, up 43 points. The PBOC conducted 3543 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repos, with a net injection of 1243 billion yuan on that day and 5623 billion yuan for the week [18]. 05 Fund Flows On September 19, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 8.463 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 5.599 billion yuan, including 250 million yuan in agricultural products, 1.083 billion yuan in chemicals, 1.118 billion yuan in black - series, and 3.149 billion yuan in metals. Stock index futures had a net outflow of 13.884 billion yuan, and bond futures had a net outflow of 188 million yuan [21]. 06 Trading Volume - On September 19, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 5500 tons, a 74% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 99,100 tons, an increase of 41,400 tons from the previous day [13]. - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills from September 13 - 19 was 2.4275 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.76%. It is expected to decrease slightly in the 39th week [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - The global cotton inventory has reached a four - year low, and the supply - demand situation of US cotton in the new year is expected to improve, but the short - term upward space of US cotton is restricted. The domestic cotton price has strong short - term support, but there is also pressure during the new flower listing period. In the long run, the cotton price is expected to rise after the seasonal pressure [2] - For sugar, the international raw sugar price is under pressure but has a certain support, and the domestic sugar price is driven downward in the short term but the downward space is limited [5] - Regarding pulp, there is still supply pressure, and the demand side is weak. In the short term, the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [8][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,885 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,167 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [1] - According to the USDA's September report, in the 2025/26 and 2024/25 cotton seasons, the global cotton output, consumption, and trade volume increased, and the ending inventory decreased [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton supply - demand data in the new year has improved, but the US cotton export sales progress is slow. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, the supply is tight at the end of the year, and the demand has improved marginally, but the new - year production increase expectation is strong, and the hedging pressure during the new flower listing period is large [2] Strategy - If the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" fails or is not good enough, the Zhengzhou cotton price may fall. In the long run, the cotton price is expected to rise after the seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,549 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.16%) from the previous day. The spot prices in Nanning, Guangxi and Kunming, Yunnan remained unchanged [4] - The USDA predicts that the US sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 9.47 million short tons, and the inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 16.2%. Indonesia has suspended issuing raw sugar import licenses for the rest of 2025 [4] Market Analysis - The international raw sugar price is under pressure due to increased production but has support from the ethanol price. The domestic sugar price has been following the international market down due to poor sales and concerns about syrup policies [5] Strategy - The short - term domestic sugar price is driven downward, but the downward space is limited. It is advisable to wait for a rebound while the price oscillates at the bottom [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,056 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton (+1.32%) from the previous day. The spot prices of different pulp types in Shandong had different changes [6] - The import wood pulp spot market had mixed price trends, with different price adjustment ranges for different pulp types [7] Market Analysis - On the supply side, although there are overseas pulp mill production cut news, the supply pattern has not changed significantly, and the domestic pulp import volume is expected to decline. The port inventory is high, so the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the global pulp consumption is weak, and the domestic demand is also lackluster [8] Strategy - The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [9]