Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Macroeconomic risk appetite declines, and valuation is under pressure [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak reality combined with weakening expectations may lead to a slight correction in steel prices [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The market is filled with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with wide fluctuations [2][9] - Coke and coking coal: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, with weak fluctuations [2][13] - Logs: Weak fluctuations [2][15] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the I 2601 futures contract was 795.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.57%. The open interest was 476,191 lots, an increase of 16,626 lots. Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) was 924.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; PB fines (61.5%) was 790.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 760.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; and Super Special fines (56.5%) remained unchanged at 716.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of Benxi ore (66%) was 946.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan; and Laiwu ore (65%) was 864.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan [4] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [4] - **Trend strength**: -1 [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the RB2601 rebar futures contract was 3,103 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.52%; the HC2601 hot-rolled coil futures contract was 3,285 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.37%. In terms of spot prices, rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 yuan/ton, while remaining unchanged in Guangzhou. Hot-rolled coil prices in Hangzhou increased by 10 yuan/ton, while remaining unchanged in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou. The price of Tangshan billet increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,970 yuan/ton [6] - **Macro and industry news**: In October 2025, the US announced additional 100% tariffs on China in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items and imposed export controls on all key software. In August 2025, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%, and imports were 500,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.4%. According to the weekly data from Steel Union on October 8, the output of rebar decreased by 36,200 tons, hot-rolled coil by 14,000 tons, and the total output of the five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons; the total inventory of rebar increased by 239,600 tons, hot-rolled coil by 299,200 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons; the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 950,600 tons, hot-rolled coil by 336,400 tons, and the total apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [6][8] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75-B in Inner Mongolia was 5,200 yuan/ton; the spot price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5,680 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 lump was 40.0 yuan/ton-degree, and the price of semi-coke small material in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton. The spot-futures price difference for ferrosilicon was -236 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan; for silicomanganese, it was -80 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan [10] - **Macro and industry news**: On October 10, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in various regions decreased to varying degrees, and the prices of 6517 silicomanganese in the north and south also decreased by 50 yuan/ton. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased by 80,100 tons, in Qinzhou Port decreased by 118,600 tons, in Fangchenggang decreased by 2,000 tons, and the total inventory increased by 27,900 tons [10] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1,161 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.3%; the J2601 coke futures contract was 1,666.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan or 0.8%. Among spot coking coal prices, the prices of Linfen low-sulfur main coking coal, Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal self-pickup price, and Lvliang low-sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged. The price of Peak Downs coking coal converted to RMB decreased by 1,650 yuan to 0 yuan/ton. Among spot coke prices, the prices of Hebei quasi-primary dry quenched coke, Shanxi quasi-primary delivered price, and Rizhao Port quasi-primary price index remained unchanged [13] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [14] - **Trend strength**: -1 for both coke and coking coal [14] Logs - **Fundamental data**: The closing prices of the 2511, 2601, and 2603 log futures contracts remained unchanged. The trading volume and open interest of each contract had different degrees of change. Among spot log prices, the prices of various types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained mostly unchanged, with only a few showing slight increases [16] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [18] - **Trend strength**: -1 [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillation" [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the poor industry demand and the maintenance of high molten iron levels continue to lead the prices of black building materials sector varieties to oscillate. Considering the limited changes in fundamentals and the increasing domestic and foreign macro and policy expectations, attention should be paid to the subsequent internal and external policy disturbances [6]. Summary by Variety Steel - **Logic**: Cost is strong, and there are still positive signals from the policy end, leading to a slight increase in the futures market. The spot market transactions are average, with some post - holiday demand release. The blast furnace profit is average, and the molten iron output remains high. The electric furnace profit has slightly improved, and the production resumption enthusiasm of electric furnace steel mills has increased. The inventory of the five major steel products has accumulated significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed during the holiday is faster than in previous years, putting pressure on the fundamentals [7]. - **Outlook**: The rapid inventory accumulation of steel during the holiday has put pressure on the fundamentals. However, the molten iron output is at a relatively high level, there are continuous disturbances on the supply side of furnace materials, and the cost support is strong. The macro - environment is warm, and it is expected that the futures market will have strong support below in the short term [7]. Iron Ore - **Logic**: Overseas mine shipments have decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has increased, with overall stable supply. The average daily output of molten iron has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mill inventory has decreased significantly during the holiday, and some steel mills have restocking plans after the holiday, leading to a significant recovery in spot transactions. The port inventory has increased slightly, and the overall inventory pressure is not prominent [8]. - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore is supported at a high level, and the supply is generally stable. There are still macro - expectations disturbances before important meetings, but the general performance of the building materials peak season demand restricts the upward space of iron ore. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate [8]. Scrap Steel - **Logic**: After the holiday, the arrival volume of scrap steel at steel mills is low, and the daily consumption has decreased. The price of finished products is under pressure, and the electric furnace profit is poor. The steel enterprises mainly consume inventory during the holiday, and the inventory has decreased slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, and the price has slightly declined on the first day after the holiday. The scrap steel's own fundamental driving force is insufficient, and it is expected that the short - term price will follow the finished products [9]. Coke - **Logic**: On the futures side, funds flowed out before the holiday, and the market rebounded after the holiday. On the spot side, the quotation has decreased. The loss of coke enterprises has slightly improved, but the high raw coal price restricts the overall start - up of coke enterprises, and the supply has slightly decreased. The blast furnace maintenance of steel mills has increased, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but is still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mills have completed restocking and are purchasing on demand, and the upstream inventory is still at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term after the holiday, the molten iron output will remain high, providing rigid demand support. The coking profit has slightly improved but still restricts the supply increase. The fundamentals are healthy in the short term. With the strengthening of macro - positive expectations, it is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [11]. Coking Coal - **Logic**: On the futures side, there were many positive news on the first day after the holiday, and the market sentiment was warm. On the spot side, the price remained unchanged. The supply of some domestic mines decreased during the holiday, and the import of Mongolian coal was restricted during the holiday but is expected to increase in the future. The demand for coking coal is still supported by the high - level coke production, and the upstream inventory is at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: After the holiday, coal mine production will recover quickly, and the import of Mongolian coal is expected to reach a high level, with a strong expectation of supply increase. However, the supply increase will be restricted by factors such as "anti - involution" and safety supervision. The demand for coking coal is still supported by the high - level coke production in the short term. The macro - environment is warm, and it is expected that the price will oscillate in the future [12]. Glass - **Logic**: The national average price has increased slightly. The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro - environment is neutral to strong. The "Stability and Growth Plan for the Building Materials Industry" will optimize the supply of float glass in the long term. The demand is in the peak season, but the mid - stream inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is neutral, with limited restocking ability. There are concerns about supply disturbances in the Shahe area, and the inventory has accumulated significantly during the National Day. If the supply disturbance expectation does not materialize, the price may be under pressure again [12]. - **Outlook**: A large amount of inventory has accumulated during the National Day. After the holiday, manufacturers try to raise prices to boost restocking sentiment. If the post - holiday production and sales are good and the spot price increase is implemented, the futures market will have room for a certain rebound. Otherwise, the fundamentals may suppress the futures and spot prices again. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The price of heavy soda ash has decreased. The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro - environment is neutral to strong. The production capacity has not been cleared, and there is long - term suppression. The output has decreased due to some manufacturers' sudden maintenance. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash has increased. The market transaction was weak during the National Day, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected that the upstream inventory will increase this week, and the industry is still in the stage of capacity clearance at the bottom of the cycle, with the price expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **Outlook**: The oversupply pattern has not changed. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely following macro - changes in the future. In the long - term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [16]. Manganese Silicon - **Logic**: After the holiday, the black sector was strong, but the manganese silicon futures market oscillated due to weak fundamentals. The spot market sentiment was cautious, and the price remained stable. The manganese ore market inquiry was cold, and the port inventory has accumulated during the holiday. The manganese silicon manufacturers' profit is poor, and there is a sentiment of price - pressing procurement. The steel mills' demand for manganese silicon is still resilient, but the market supply pressure is gradually increasing, and the future inventory clearance will be more difficult [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the cost and peak - season demand support the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic. After the peak season, the price center of manganese silicon still has downward space. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [17]. Ferrosilicon - **Logic**: The prices of black chain varieties were strong, but the ferrosilicon futures market was weak due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in the main production areas in September. The spot market transaction atmosphere was average, and the manufacturers' quotations were gradually loosening. The ferrosilicon production remains at a high level, and the market supply pressure is gradually increasing. The demand from steel mills is still supported, but the demand for magnesium ingots is weak, suppressing the price [18]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the peak - season demand and cost support the ferrosilicon price, but the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. After the peak season, the price still has downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the reduction of electricity costs in the main production areas [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it gives individual ratings for different commodities in the black series: - Iron ore: Bullish consolidation supported by macro - expectations [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Wide - range consolidation, with attention on the electric - arc furnace production cut rhythm [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Wide - range consolidation, with a strong market wait - and - see atmosphere [2][12] - Coke and coking coal: Wide - range consolidation with fluctuating expectations [2][16][17] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][19] 2. Core Views The report analyzes the market trends of various black - series commodities. It believes that different commodities are affected by different factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and industry policies, resulting in different price trends and market characteristics. For example, iron ore is supported by macro - expectations, while rebar and hot - rolled coil need to focus on the production cut rhythm of electric - arc furnaces [2][4][7][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (1.28%). The positions of I2601 increased by 12,200 hands. Among spot prices, imported ore prices generally rose by 2 yuan/ton, while domestic ore prices decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Due to the US government shutdown, the US September non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data were not released as scheduled [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,096 yuan/ton and 3,286 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.19%) and 12 yuan/ton (0.37%) respectively. The positions of RB2601 and HC2601 increased. Spot prices generally rose, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to August, China's industrial enterprise profits increased. The weekly data of steel products showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand. For example, in the week of October 8, the production of rebar decreased by 3.62 million tons, and the inventory increased by 23.96 million tons [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures showed fluctuations. For example, the price of SF2511 decreased by 22 yuan/ton, and the price of SM2511 increased by 26 yuan/ton. Spot prices also changed, with ferrosilicon prices generally decreasing [12][13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were affected by factors such as electricity prices and steel procurement. The export volume of South African manganese ore in August decreased month - on - month [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 38 yuan/ton (3.4%) and 31 yuan/ton (1.9%) respectively. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes, and the basis and spreads also changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The China Coking Industry Association stated that it had never issued or authorized any "forced production cut" or "joint price increase" notices or initiatives [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1, indicating a slightly bullish trend for coking coal [18]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts showed different trends. For example, the price of the 2511 contract increased by 0.8%, and the trading volume increased by 191.8%. Spot prices of logs in different regions and varieties were relatively stable [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Due to the US government shutdown, the US September non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data were not released as scheduled [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal and coke market is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short - term, with strong supply - demand fundamentals and positive domestic macro - expectations [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoint - **Supply**: After the parade, domestic upstream production quickly recovered, and the customs clearance volume at the Mongolian coal ports of Ganqimaodu and Ceke remained high. The actual supply has changed little in the past week, but the supply - side intervention expectations are fluctuating due to policy news, causing significant fluctuations in futures prices [3]. - **Demand**: Pre - holiday restocking of raw materials has begun, and the current spot demand support is relatively strong [4]. - **Macro**: Overseas interest rate cuts were announced as expected, and the market had already priced in this factor, so the impact was limited after the announcement. Domestic macro - expectations remain strong, providing some support for the valuation of the black - metal sector [4]. 3.2 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal: 876.6 (+4.08); FW clean coal: 451.95 (+1.38) | Independent coking plants' daily average: 66.34 (-0.38); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average: 46.44 (-0.21) | | Demand | Hot metal production: 242.36 (+1.34) | Hot metal production: 242.36 (+1.34) | | Inventory | MS total inventory + 14.6; Mine raw coal - 11.3; Mine clean coal - 21.8; Independent coking + 58.7; Steel mill coking + 5.7; Port - 16.7; FW port + 19.1 | MS total inventory + 5.2; Independent coking - 8.0; Steel mill + 16.6; Port - 3.4 | | Profit | Commodity coal: 452 (+31) | Average profit of coking enterprises: - 34 (-17) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolian 5 coal in Tangshan: 1185 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke: 1589 | [6] 3.3 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Weekly**: Data on 523 sample mine开工率, FW raw coal and clean coal production are presented, showing production trends over different years [9][11][13]. - **Monthly**: Data on coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal production are provided, showing monthly production trends from 2019 - 2025 [15]. - **Mongolian coal customs clearance**: Data on the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu, Mandula, Ceke ports and the total of the three ports are presented, showing trends from 2021 - 2025 [17][20][21][23]. - **Inventory** - **Pit - mouth**: This week, the inventory of raw coal in sample mines decreased by 23.63 tons to 162.33 tons, and the inventory of clean coal decreased by 10.01 tons to 104.68 tons [28]. - **Port**: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 265.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.7 tons [30]. - **Coking plant**: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking plants and their regional and capacity - based breakdowns are presented [33][35][37]. - **Steel mill**: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and their regional breakdowns are presented [38]. 3.4 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Capacity utilization**: Data on the capacity utilization of independent coking plants (including different capacity levels and regions) and 247 steel enterprises are presented [41][43]. - **Production**: Data on the daily production of independent coking plants and 247 steel enterprises are presented, showing trends over different years [45][47]. - **Inventory** - **Coking plant**: Data on the inventory of independent coking plants are presented, showing trends over different years [49]. - **Steel mill**: Data on the inventory, average available days, regional absolute inventory, and regional available days of 247 steel enterprises are presented [50][53][54]. - **Total sample**: Data on the total coke inventory are presented, showing trends from 2019 - 2025 [56]. - **Demand**: Data on the daily production of hot metal in 247 steel enterprises and the supply - demand difference of coke are presented [58][59]. - **Profit**: Data on the ton - coke futures (main - contract) profit and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises are presented [62][63]. 3.5 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Coking coal futures**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2601 and 2605 futures contracts from September 19 - 26, 2025 are presented, along with the coking coal index closing price [66]. - **Coke futures**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2601 and 2605 futures contracts from September 19 - 26, 2025 are presented, along with the coke index closing price [68]. - **Coal and coke monthly spread**: Data on the spread between JM2601 - JM2605 and J2601 - J2605 are presented [71]. - **Coal and coke spot**: Data on the car - board prices of different types of coking coal and the prices of different grades of metallurgical coke are presented [74]. - **Coal and coke basis**: The futures price may weaken due to macro - sentiment and policy news, and the basis has increased month - on - month [77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The macro - expectation has improved, and prices are fluctuating widely. Steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal prices are all in an oscillatory state, with different influencing factors for each [1][3][5][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The domestic steel market showed mixed trends. The futures price of rebar was oscillating strongly, and the spot price was firm. The trading volume of building materials increased slightly compared with the previous day. The rebar main contract closed at 3164 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3357 yuan/ton. The total national building materials trading volume was 103,859 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The downstream demand has restocking needs before the festival, and merchants are more reluctant to sell. With the implementation of relevant "anti - involution" policies, the chasing - up sentiment has declined. The short - term market trading may return to the supply - demand fundamentals, and the short - term building steel prices will enter a wide - range oscillation stage [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be in an oscillatory state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore weakened slightly. The iron ore main 2601 contract closed at 803.5 yuan/ton. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port remained basically stable. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 155 million tons, a 13.46% decrease from the previous day; the forward spot trading volume was 65 million tons, a 71.37% decrease from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The arrival of iron ore this week decreased slightly compared with the previous week, and the port inventory increased slightly but was still lower than the same period in previous years. The restocking demand of steel mills before the National Day has been released. The hot - metal output is still at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of the floating volume on the arrival and the restocking rhythm of steel mills before the festival [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be in an oscillatory state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The main futures contracts of double - coking oscillated. Due to restocking before the double festivals, the price of coking coal continued to rise, and the cost of coke increased. Some coke enterprises have proposed to raise the coke price. The production of domestic coal mines is relatively stable, and some coal mines have plans to stop production during the National Day, with limited impact on supply. The available high - quality resources at the Mongolian coal port are scarce, and the port will be closed for 7 days during the National Day. The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal has risen to 1030 - 1040 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coke is basically stable, with strong rigid demand support, but the terminal demand recovery is less than expected, the steel inventory accumulation trend remains unchanged, and the pre - festival restocking intensity is relatively limited, so the coke supply and demand are basically balanced. The production of coal mines is gradually recovering, the demand is considerable, but the inventory continues to accumulate, which suppresses the price [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are recommended to be in an oscillatory state for unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The coal prices in the main production areas remained stable. The over - production verification in the production areas continued to be strengthened, but the overall impact was limited. The coal supply at the mine mouth was sufficient, and the prices of some coal mines with low inventory remained stable. At the port, as the mine - mouth coal price continued to rise, the buyer's resistance increased, the pre - festival restocking was basically completed, and the market demand continued to decline. The tender price of imported coal continued to rise, the price of low - calorie domestic coal rebounded, and the price difference between domestic and foreign coal shrank [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The safety supervision in the production areas has become stricter, the supply is relatively sufficient, the daily consumption of thermal coal has begun to decline, and the non - power demand such as the chemical industry has decreased. The short - term coal price will oscillate. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [8]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The precious metals market continues to rise, but there is a risk of a peak in the short - term. Basic metals are expected to be volatile, and different metals have different trends and trading strategies. In the black industry, steel and iron ore markets have certain supply - demand characteristics, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The agricultural products market shows different supply - demand situations for each variety, with corresponding trading strategies. The energy and chemical market has complex supply - demand relationships, and most products are recommended to be short - term cautious or long - term bearish [1][2][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metal prices continue to rise, with New York gold breaking through $3,800 per ounce, and market funds continue to go long [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The Fed's stance on interest rate cuts is divided, and economic data in the US and the eurozone shows mixed trends. Domestic gold ETF funds continue to flow in, and inventories of gold and silver in different regions have changed [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic, but with contradictory outlooks and high prices, it is recommended to partially close long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday for gold, and also partially take profits for silver [1]. 3.2 Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated weakly yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The path of the US dollar interest rate cut is clear, but there are uncertainties. Domestic policy expectations have fallen short in the short - term, and Powell's speech has affected risk preferences [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt an oscillatory thinking in the short - term and wait for good buying points [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.29% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 20,685 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and downstream consumption continues to pick up [2][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots slows down, and it is recommended to go long on dips due to the expected post - holiday destocking [4]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.94% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2,877 yuan per ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina plants continues to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand surplus pattern of alumina remains unchanged, and it is expected that the price will oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract opened low and oscillated narrowly on Tuesday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has new furnaces opened, and social inventory slightly accumulates. The demand side has high polysilicon operating rates, but the "anti - involution" policy has a multi - empty game [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The disk is expected to oscillate between 8,700 - 9,800 yuan, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 73,660 yuan per ton, up 0.3% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing, with lithium ore imports and production changing. Demand is strong due to the peak season of energy storage and new energy vehicles. It is expected to continue destocking in September [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan, and the core driver lies in supply - side changes. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract opened low and oscillated narrowly on Tuesday, with a decrease of 1.43% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. Supply is stable with high operating rates, and demand has limited price fluctuations in downstream products. The photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter is pessimistic [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The disk is expected to oscillate downward. Pay attention to the support level at 48,000 yuan and the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [4]. 3.3 Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main contract of rebar closed at 3,145 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan from the previous night's closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The demand for building materials is in the peak season, but the previous high supply has led to slow destocking. The demand for plates is stable, and the inventory accumulation margin slows down. The overall supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, but the structural differentiation is obvious [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Try the 10/5 reverse spread for rebar. The reference range for RB01 is 3,100 - 3,170 yuan [6]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main contract of iron ore closed at 803 yuan per ton, down 4.5 yuan from the previous night's closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, and the inventory increased. The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the steel mill's profit margin has slightly recovered. The supply - demand of iron ore is marginally neutral to strong, and the inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal pattern [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for I01 is 790 - 810 yuan [6]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main contract of coking coal closed at 1,224 yuan per ton, up 13 yuan from the previous night's closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, but some non - mainstream coking plants have proposed price increases. The inventory at each link of the supply side is differentiated, and the futures valuation is high [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for JM01 is 1,180 - 1,250 yuan [6]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The US soybeans have a slight reduction in production and are entering the harvest season. South America is expected to increase production in the long - term. The demand is structurally differentiated, with an increase in US soybean crushing but a weak export demand for new crops. The global inventory is expected to be high [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, US soybeans are weak due to weak export expectations, and the domestic market is also weak due to a narrowing gap expectation. Pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies in the medium - term [7]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn 2511 contract is running weakly, and most of the spot prices of corn have fallen [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The auction of imported grains has increased the market supply, and the low transaction rate reflects weak market sentiment. The new crop is expected to increase production, and the cost has decreased significantly, suppressing the long - term price expectation. Trade negotiations bring uncertainties to imports [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the pressure of new crop listing, the futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [7]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5,487 yuan per ton, up 0.86% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar production has reached a new high, and the raw sugar price has been affected. Domestically, the import volume in August reached a new high, and the market expects high imports in the future. The sugar production in Inner Mongolia for the 25/26 season has officially started [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Overnight, the US cotton futures price stopped falling and rebounded, and the international crude oil price rose significantly. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price also stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the cotton boll opening rate in the US is slightly different from previous years, and the local cotton price in Pakistan is under pressure. Domestically, the opening rate of spinning mills is basically stable [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and mainly use a range strategy of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan per ton [8]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The log 09 contract closed at 805 yuan per cubic meter, down 0.31%. The spot prices of logs in different regions are stable [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The total inventory of major ports across the country has slightly decreased, and the current spot price is stable, with no obvious improvement in downstream demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: In the short - term, Malaysian palm oil continues to fall, digesting the negative impact of Argentina's suspension of export tariffs [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side is in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and the demand side has an estimated 8.7% month - on - month increase in exports from September 1 - 20 according to ITS [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, palm oil is weak due to the suppression of international oils. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies in the later stage [8]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2511 contract is running weakly, and the spot price is stable [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The double - festival stocking is coming to an end, the downstream acceptance of high egg prices is low, the supply is sufficient, and the inventory has increased. The feed price is low, and the vegetable price has dragged down the egg price [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the futures price is also expected to be weak [8]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The pig 2511 contract continues to decline, and the spot price of pigs has slightly decreased [8][9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is abundant, the slaughter of farmers and second - fattening pigs is increasing, and the slaughter volume in September is expected to increase by 3.9%. The weather is getting cooler, and the pig growth is accelerating. Fearing the seasonal weakening of demand after the double festivals, the pre - festival slaughter enthusiasm has increased, and the pre - festival pig price is expected to be weak. The pig - to - grain ratio has fallen below 6, and policy support may boost market sentiment [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the loose supply, the futures price is expected to be weak [9]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE continued to decline slightly yesterday. The low - price spot quotation in North China is 7,050 yuan per ton, the basis of the 01 contract is the disk price minus 50, and the basis is strengthening. The market trading performance is average. The US dollar price in the overseas market has a slight decline, and the import window is closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, new devices are put into operation, and the domestic supply continues to increase. The import volume is expected to decrease slightly. On the demand side, it is currently the peak season for downstream agricultural films, and the demand has improved month - on - month, but other areas' demand remains stable [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory is slightly destocked, the basis is weak, the supply is increasing, and the peak - season demand is less than expected. It will mainly oscillate, and the upside space is significantly restricted by the import window. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will gradually become loose in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to short at high prices or do the month - spread reverse spread [10]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract closed at 4,884, down 0.3% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC is oscillating at the bottom, and the spot trading is light. The supply - demand is in a weak balance. New devices have been put into operation, the production in August increased by 6% year - on - year, the upstream operating rate is 78%, the downstream factory operating rate is about 37% and has declined by 2% month - on - month. The real estate new construction and completion are down 15% year - on - year, and the social inventory has reached a new high [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the weak supply - demand, it is recommended to short [10]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg01 contract closed at 1,188, down 2.3% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass trading is stable, and the center of gravity has slightly moved up. The supply - demand is weak. The daily melting volume of the supply side is 160,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 7.0%. One production line is expected to resume production in October. The inventory has decreased, the downstream deep - processing enterprise order days are 10.4 days, and the operating rate is about 49% and has increased by 1% month - on - month. The real estate new construction and completion are down 15% year - on - year, and the spot price has slightly increased [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the seasonal recovery of demand, it is recommended to go long [10]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP continued to decline slightly yesterday. The spot price of PP in East China is 6,730 yuan per ton, the basis of the 01 contract is the disk price minus 100, and the basis is strengthening. The market trading performance is average. The US dollar quotation in the overseas market has a slight decline, the import window is closed, and the export window is open [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the overall maintenance scale is still relatively high in the short - term, new devices are gradually starting up, the domestic supply is increasing, and the supply pressure has increased. The export window has reopened. On the demand side, the peak season of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" is coming, and the downstream operating rate has increased month - on - month [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory is slightly destocked, the basis is weak, the supply and demand are both increasing. It is expected that the disk will oscillate weakly, and the upside space is limited by the import window. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become loose in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to short at high prices or do the month - spread reverse spread [10]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the oil price stabilized. The agreement for Iraq to resume the Kurdish crude oil export pipeline was blocked, and Trump's statement about anti - Russian oil has affected the market [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, pay attention to the decline in Russian crude oil exports, with a small expected reduction. OPEC+ plans to increase production, but the actual increase is relatively small. The supply pressure from other countries is gradually increasing. On the demand side, the gasoline consumption peak season is over, and the refineries in Europe and the US are entering the autumn maintenance period. The demand is weakening month - on - month, and there is a risk of global economic slowdown in Q4 [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to strong supply and weak demand, it is recommended to short crude oil at high prices and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity for the SC main contract around 500 yuan per barrel [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract of EB continued to decline slightly yesterday. The spot market quotation in East China is 6,900 yuan per ton, and the market trading atmosphere is average. The US dollar price in the overseas market has a slight decline, and the import window is still closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the pure benzene inventory is at a normal to high level, and the supply - demand expectation has marginally improved, but the overall contradiction is still large. The styrene inventory is also at a normal to high level, and the downstream has destocked before the holiday. On the demand side, the downstream enterprises are still suffering large losses, the finished product inventory has slightly decreased but is still at a high level. The downstream operating rate has increased month - on - month with the arrival of the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" peak season [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the pure benzene inventory has slightly decreased, and the supply - demand has marginally improved, but the overall contradiction is still large. The styrene inventory is at a normal to high level, the downstream has restocked before the holiday, the basis is weakening, and the supply - demand is weak. It is expected that the disk will oscillate weakly, and the upside space is limited by the import window. In the long - term, as the supply gradually recovers, the market supply - demand pattern will become loose. It is recommended to short at high prices or do the month - spread reverse spread when the price rebounds [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Optimistic macro expectations, low inventories, and consumer recovery have led to an upward trend in copper prices. With the approaching likely Fed rate cut on September 18 and the expected 'Golden September and Silver October' consumption peak season in China, copper prices are expected to continue rising in the near - term [1][2][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, LME copper prices rose significantly. On September 3, 2025, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The main 2510 contract closed at 80,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton or 0.56% from the previous trading day. - The average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Shanghai Metals Market was 80,500 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. It was at a premium of 90 - 300 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2509 contract. The supply of imported and domestic copper in the spot market has increased, but the high price has suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment [1]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamentals - The start time of LME's Asian trading on Wednesday was postponed by 90 minutes, and the reason is unknown. - The lack of confidence in the copper market was due to weak downstream consumption. However, with the approaching Fed rate cut on September 18 and the expected consumption peak season in China, copper prices started to rise. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4, up 0.1 from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery of the economy and providing some support for copper demand. - The recent rise in gold prices has also boosted copper prices [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Although the Shanghai copper main contract once broke through the 80,000 yuan/ton mark, the overall trend was a bit sluggish. After the price soared, long - position holders were more willing to reduce their positions, resulting in a long upper shadow on the K - line. - Given the low spot inventory and the expected consumption peak season, with the approaching Fed rate cut on September 18, copper prices may have formed an upward trend in the near - term [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Wide - amplitude oscillation due to repeated macro - expectations [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][7] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][11] - Silicomanganese: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][11] - Coke: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][14] - Coking coal: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][14] - Logs: Oscillation and repetition [2][16] 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs are in a state of wide - amplitude oscillation or oscillation and repetition, with the trend intensity of all commodities being 0, indicating a neutral market outlook [2][4][7] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of iron ore (12601) closed at 777.0 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan/ton with a 0.71% increase. The positions increased by 12,928 hands. Among spot prices, imported ores like Carajás fines (65%), PB (61.5%), etc. all rose by 6.0 yuan/ton, while domestic ores remained stable. Some basis and spread values also changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures prices of RB2510 and HC2510 decreased. The trading volume and positions of RB2510 decreased, and those of HC2510 also changed. Spot prices in most regions decreased slightly. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis of RB2510 increasing by 3 yuan/ton and that of HC2510 decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: In July 2025, China's steel exports were 983.6 million tons, up 1.6% from the previous month, with the export price up 2.2%. From January to July, cumulative exports were 6798.3 million tons, up 11.0% year - on - year, but the export price was down 10.3%. In the steel union's weekly data on August 28, production, inventory, and apparent demand of some steel products changed [8][9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. The trading volume and positions of different contracts changed. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5250 yuan/ton and 5680 yuan/ton respectively. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the ferrosilicon basis increasing by 8 yuan/ton [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 3, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions were reported. In May and June 2025, India's silicomanganese export volume changed month - on - month and year - on - year [12][13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. The trading volume and positions of JM2601 increased, while those of J2601 changed slightly. Spot prices of coking coal and coke remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis of JM2601 in Shanxi increasing by 6.5 yuan/ton [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [14] Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of different log contracts decreased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts changed significantly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the spot - 2509 basis decreasing by 46.3% [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to the repeated macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are likely to have an oscillatory correction because of the rapid inventory accumulation [2][7][8]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are predicted to have wide - range fluctuations [2][12]. - Coke and coking coal are expected to show wide - range fluctuations [2][15]. - Logs are likely to have repeated oscillations [2][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the futures contract 12601 was 771.5 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan or 0.72%. The positions decreased by 948 hands. Among the spot prices, imported ore prices generally increased, while domestic ore prices remained stable. The basis and spreads also had certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 1 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3047 yuan/ton and 3310 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.49% and 0.48%. The trading volumes, positions and their changes, spot prices, basis and spreads all had corresponding data [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July 2025, China's steel exports were 983.6 million tons, up 1.6% from the previous month, and the export average price was 702.2 US dollars/ton, up 2.2%. From January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 6798.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.0%, and the export average price was 699.7 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. According to the weekly data on August 28, the production, inventory and apparent demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil had different changes. In mid - August 2025, the production and inventory data of key steel enterprises also changed [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [10]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions of futures contracts, and spot prices, basis and spreads of silicon iron and manganese silicon all had specific data [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 2, the prices of silicon iron 72 in different regions and the procurement prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon by some steel mills were reported [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0 [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions of futures contracts, and spot prices, basis and spreads of coke and coking coal all had corresponding data [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 1 [15]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions of different futures contracts, and spot prices, basis and spreads of logs all had specific data, and the price changes of different types of logs in different regions were also reported [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [20].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The report indicates that iron ore is experiencing repeated macro - expectations and is in a wide - range shock state [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 787.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 3.0 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.38%. The position was 473,608 lots, with an increase of 1,118 lots [1]. - **Spot Price**: Imported ore prices (such as 65% Karara fines, 61.5% PB fines, 61% Jinbuba ore) decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton, while 56.5% Super Special ore remained unchanged. Domestic ore prices (66% Langna ore, 65% Laiwu ore) remained stable [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis (12601 vs Super Special) increased by 3.0 to 93.9, and the basis (12601 vs Jinbuba) increased by 0.8 to 44.2. Spreads such as 12509 - 12601 decreased by 5.0 to 15.5, and 12601 - 12605 decreased by 1.0 to 24.0. The difference between Karara fines and PB fines remained at 112.0, and the difference between PB fines and Super Special decreased by 2.0 to 108.0 [1]. Macro and Industry News - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics on August 31, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the range of trend intensity being [-2, 2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [1].