1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is experiencing a positive feedback loop, with steel prices expected to continue rising. The iron ore market is supported by macro - factors, leading to a valuation increase. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be volatile and bullish as demand is being released. The ferroalloy market has a tight spot demand, and the cost is pushed up by the futures market [3][6][75][133]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Steel Products 3.1.1 Steel Market Outlook - The steel market is driven by positive feedback from expectations. Macro - factors include tariff disturbances overseas and a focus on supply - side expectations and waiting for the 730 Politburo meeting domestically. The off - season steel demand is better than expected, with low inventories, expanding steel mill profits, slow decline in hot metal production, and poor transmission of negative feedback [8]. 3.1.2 Threaded Steel - **Price and Basis**: Last week, the Shanghai threaded steel spot price was 3250 (+30) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3147 (+14) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 103 (+16) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 44 (- 16) yuan/ton [21]. - **Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. In the off - season, demand indicators decline seasonally [22][26]. - **Inventory**: Steel inventories are at a low level and not accumulating, indicating low pressure in the industrial chain [28]. - **Profit**: Both spot and futures profits are shrinking. Last week, the spot profit was 324 (- 23) yuan/ton, and the futures profit was 272 (- 25) yuan/ton [38]. 3.1.3 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price and Basis**: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3340 (+40) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3310 (+37) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 30 (+3) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 10 (- 3) yuan/ton [43]. - **Demand**: Demand has weakened month - on - month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the white - goods production is in the off - season. The convergence of internal and external price differences has led to a decline in steel exports [47][48]. - **Inventory**: The off - season demand is slightly better than expected, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down. Steel mills maintain high production levels [50][53]. - **Profit**: Both spot and futures profits are shrinking. Last week, the spot profit was 246 (- 13) yuan/ton, and the futures profit was 285 (- 2) yuan/ton [57]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Outlook - The supply of mainstream iron ore shipments continues to decline from a high level, but freight rates are stabilizing and showing signs of a rebound. Iron ore demand is strong, with hot metal production rebounding against the season and high port clearance. The "anti - involution" theme trading sentiment is strong, and the market expects potential "supply - side reform - like" interventions in the steel industry. In the short term, prices are expected to remain volatile and bullish [77]. 3.2.2 Contract Performance - The main 09 contract price is volatile and bullish, closing at 785.0 yuan/ton, with an open interest of 693,000 lots (an increase of 31,000 lots). The average daily trading volume was 384,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 54,000 lots [79]. 3.2.3 Spot Price - Spot prices generally follow the futures market, with high - grade ore prices catching up. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) increased from 845 to 870 yuan/ton [83]. 3.2.4 Supply - **Mainstream Mines**: Mainstream shipments decreased month - on - month, but freight rates stabilized and rebounded. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Overall shipments decreased month - on - month, and the recovery in Peru was limited. - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate in the southwest region increased, and the overall national capacity utilization rate stabilized [88][93][100]. 3.2.5 Demand - Hot metal production increased month - on - month in the off - season, and the port clearance volume remained at a high level compared to previous years. The substitution effect of scrap steel weakened as the price difference between scrap and hot metal decreased significantly [102][105]. 3.2.6 Inventory - The inflection point of port inventories has not arrived yet [110]. 3.2.7 Price Spreads - High - medium and medium - low grade ore price spreads both increased significantly. The PB lump - powder spread showed a slight narrowing trend. The 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads strengthened, and the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts has narrowed to the low level of the same period last year, while the 09 contract is close to par [119][124][125]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke 3.3.1 Market Outlook - The supply of coking coal and coke is gradually recovering but at a limited pace. The demand is increasing as blast furnace overhauls are completed and hot metal production is rising. The inventory will mainly be replenished based on rigid demand. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish, but the enthusiasm of downstream replenishment after the coke price increase needs to be monitored [133][134][137]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The domestic coking coal supply decreased slightly this week, with the sample coal mine raw coal output decreasing by 2.65 tons to 1227.88 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate dropping by 0.18% to 85.43%. The independent coking plant's daily average coke output was 64.2 (+0.1) [136][139]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production increased, and coke enterprises and intermediate links actively purchased, but the overall arrival of coke at enterprises did not improve significantly [136]. - **Inventory**: The steel mill's coke inventory is at a medium level, but due to the influence of the futures market, traders' purchases have tightened the supply, and the steel mill's inventory has decreased. The available days of coke inventory in the monitored steel enterprises are 10.85 days, a decrease of 0.18 days compared to last week [134]. - **Profit**: The profit of coking coal is 326 (+36), and the average profit of coke enterprises is - 65 (- 35) [139].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, with optimistic domestic and overseas macro - environments and coking coal price concessions as a supporting factor, the steel futures market is rising. The downstream's enthusiasm for covering short positions and spot - futures trading has increased, and steel mills' orders are good. The market is expected to remain strong in the short term [3]. - For iron ore, its short - term fundamentals are strengthening. Although there may be a slight weakening in the long - term, the contradictions are not significant. With high inventory, potential for increased shipments, and stable steel mill demand, it is still considered strong in the short term [20]. - Regarding coal and coke, the short - term market may continue to be strong due to the current good profitability of downstream steel mills. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow, and the high iron - making rate may not be sustainable [29]. - In the ferroalloy market, driven by anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, it has been rising slowly. But considering the weakening cost and downstream demand in the off - season, it is expected to be weak in the long - term, with possible fluctuations [46]. - For soda ash, due to the expected disturbances and fundamental limitations, it is rising in a volatile manner. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related factors [58]. - In the glass market, the price has moved up. The supply side has a co - existence of ignition and cold - repair, and the market needs to observe the improvement of market sentiment and the real downstream demand [89]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3191, 3207, and 3147 yuan/ton respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3320, 3327, and 3310 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3319 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3340 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Spread**: The 01 - 05 spread of rebar was - 16 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil was - 7 yuan/ton on July 18, 2025 [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 753, 730, and 785 yuan/ton respectively [21]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 773 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily average pig iron output on July 18, 2025, was 242.44 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 13785.21 tons [24]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 45 yuan/ton [30]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1030 yuan/ton [31]. - **Profit and Spread**: The on - site coking profit on July 18, 2025, was 73 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.517 [30]. Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On July 18, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 72 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 60 yuan/ton [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On July 18, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 28 yuan/ton [50]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1306, 1216, and 1265 yuan/ton respectively [60]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [61]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1240, 1081, and 1165 yuan/ton respectively [90]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was - 74 yuan/ton [90]. - **Production and Sales**: From July 8 - 13, 2025, the production - sales ratio in Shahe ranged from 91% to 120%, and in Hubei from 92% to 163% [92].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic outlook has improved, leading to a strong performance in the A-share market. Recent international developments have shown marginal improvement, with the U.S. fiscal expansion plan helping to alleviate recession expectations and stabilize global capital markets [1] - Domestic efforts to combat "involution" are ongoing, which is expected to ease overcapacity concerns and positively impact profit expectations. Investors are closely monitoring macroeconomic data for June and the first half of the year, as well as future policy directions [1] - The two markets exhibited volatility and differentiation, with trading volume decreasing. On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight rebound, closing above the five-day moving average, while the Shenzhen Component Index saw a slight decline. The total trading volume was around 1.4 trillion yuan, down from the previous Friday [1] Group 2 - The market structure showed more stocks rising than falling, with a notable increase in the number of stocks hitting the daily limit up, although there was also a rise in limit down stocks, which warrants attention. The main market focus was on the robotics and power sectors, with small-cap stocks leading in gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the dense trading area from the fourth quarter of last year, continuing to move upward. After surpassing the small trading range from May and June, it has crossed above the dense trading area from the fourth quarter of last year, with the main technical resistance level now at the high point from early October last year, which also represents the top of the weekly large trading range [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to have a strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil plates will have wide - range oscillations due to the undiminished sector sentiment [2][7]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are slightly boosted by the settlement of steel tender prices [2][10]. - Coke will oscillate with an upward trend [2][13]. - Coking coal will oscillate with an upward trend affected by news disturbances [2][14]. - Steam coal will stabilize with oscillations as daily consumption recovers [2][18]. - Logs will have wide - range oscillations due to the change of the main contract [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Categories Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of iron ore (12509) closed at 766.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.33%). The import and domestic ore prices generally increased slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil Plate - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of HC2510 closed at 3,276 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot prices in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year - on - year. China's steel exports in June were 967.8 million tons, a decrease of 90.0 million tons from the previous month. The weekly data on July 10 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of hot - rolled coil plate is 0 [9]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon contracts increased. The spot prices and various spreads also showed different changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions were reported. A large steel group in Hebei increased the tender prices for silicon iron and silicon manganese in July and increased the procurement volume [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0 [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) increased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: The port prices of coking coal and the CCI metallurgical coal index were reported. The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in DCE were provided [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [16]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading on the previous day. The opening, high, low, and closing prices and trading volume and open interest were reported [19]. - **Fundamental Information**: The prices of imported steam coal at southern ports and domestic steam coal at production areas were provided. The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in ZCE were reported [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0 [21]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts (2509, 2511, 2601) showed different trends. The spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained stable [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US President Trump extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The macro - face is positive. The National Development and Reform Commission expects China's GDP in 2025 to be around 140 trillion yuan, and will promote the modern infrastructure system. The State Council aims to stabilize employment and the economy through policy measures [1]. - The fundamental data last week was weak. The production and sales of the five major steel products declined, and the inventory remained flat. The production, apparent demand, and inventory of rebar all decreased, and the demand for building materials was in the off - season. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils also decreased, and the inventory increased slightly for three consecutive weeks [1]. - The recent rebound of rebar futures is mainly due to positive macro - expectations and supplemented by the improvement of the supply - demand structure. The short - term market sentiment is warm, and the futures price is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. However, due to the weak demand pattern, the upward pressure on the futures price is still large [1][5] Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3133 | 61 | 1.99 | 7764666 | 3183357 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3273 | 72 | 2.25 | 2688725 | 1597104 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 764.0 | 31.5 | 4.30 | 1646727 | 659915 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 913.0 | 73.5 | 8.76 | 6466818 | 796808 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1519.5 | 86.5 | 6.04 | 132329 | 56526 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures rose strongly supported by macro - sentiment. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2960 (+30) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (+50) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3300 (+50) yuan/ton [4]. - The macro - situation is positive with expected GDP scale and employment - stabilizing policies [4]. - The industrial data shows that last week, rebar production was 217 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons; apparent demand was 221 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons; factory inventory was 181 million tons, unchanged; social inventory was 359 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons; total inventory was 540 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 323 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons; factory inventory was 78 million tons, a decrease of 0.51 million tons; social inventory was 268 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons; total inventory was 346 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons; apparent demand was 323 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons [1][5] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development aims to stabilize the real estate market [6][7]. - Trump extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period and announced new tariffs on Mexican and EU products [10]. - 33 construction enterprises issued an "anti - involution" initiative [10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission gave GDP expectations and infrastructure development plans [10]. - The State Council issued an employment - stabilizing policy [10] Related Charts - The report provides 20 charts related to steel futures, including rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, regional price differences, production, inventory, and consumption [9][11][16]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 14 日 铁矿石：宏观预期支撑，偏强震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 764. 0 | 0. 5 | 0. 07% | | | 12509 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 661.862 | 1.947 | | | | 卡粉 (65%) | 昨日价格(元/吨) 845. 0 | 前日价格(元/吨) 841.0 | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | PB (61.5%) | 752. 0 | 750. 0 | 4. 0 2. 0 | | | 进口矿 | | | | | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴(61%) | 715. 0 | 715. 0 | 0. 0 | | | | 超特 (56.5%) | 628. 0 | 630. 0 | -2.0 | | | 国产矿 | 郎 ...

从市场运行节奏看，沪指突破去年四季度密集成交区，重心继续上移。沪指突破五、六月份来回震 荡的小箱体后连续上行，已经越过了去年四季度的密集成交区，重心再次上移。目前上方的主要技术压 力位在去年十月初的高点，这个位置也是周线大箱体的顶部位置。 风险提示：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超 预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 首先，宏观预期有所改善，A 股市场连续上涨。近期国际局势有所好转，外部环境开始边际改善。 全球贸易摩擦逐步缓和，美国的部分压制手段有所收敛。国内方面，"反内卷"工作持续推进，产能过剩 预期将有所缓解，这对提升盈利预期有正面作用。此外，稳定币的发展对金融板块形成一定利好，推动 相关板块持续活跃，帮助指数冲破重要技术压力。上周，两市连续反弹，日均成交增加。沪指上周延续 了向上反弹的趋势，周三盘中创出去年 11 月以来的高点，周四周五继续向上推进。深圳成指上周同步 反弹，创出阶段高点。量能方面，上周两市日均量能超过 15000 亿，较上周出现回升。上周市场热点主 要集中在钢铁、房地产和券商等行业。投资风格方面，中小盘和科技风格涨幅更大。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a short-term price fluctuation with a tendency to strengthen, driven by seasonal supply declines, weak demand, and changing inventory levels [1] Supply Summary - Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons week-on-week [1] - Shipments from Australia and Brazil amounted to 24.650 million tons, down 4.173 million tons week-on-week [1] - Australian shipments were 18.026 million tons, a decrease of 1.964 million tons, with shipments to China at 14.537 million tons, down 3.231 million tons [1] - Brazilian shipments were 6.624 million tons, a decrease of 2.209 million tons [1] Demand Summary - Daily average pig iron production was 2.3981 million tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons week-on-week [1] - The operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces was 83.15%, down 0.31 percentage points week-on-week [1] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points week-on-week [1] Inventory Summary - The total iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 143.4689 million tons, a decrease of 1.3901 million tons week-on-week [1] - The average daily dispatch volume was 3.378 million tons, an increase of 36,100 tons week-on-week [1] Market Outlook - The seasonal decline in iron ore shipments is evident, particularly from Australia and Brazil, while near-term arrivals have increased [1] - The decline in pig iron production is attributed to routine maintenance in some regions and weather conditions in Hebei [1] - The port arrivals fell short of expectations, leading to a decrease in port inventories and an increase in steel mills' imported ore stocks [1] - As July approaches, macroeconomic expectations are influencing the market, with a rebound in related commodities due to "anti-involution" trends [1] - The healthy profitability of steel mills and the absence of significant supply pressure suggest a short-term upward price trend for iron ore, with a need for risk control and attention to market sentiment and macroeconomic developments [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals shows mixed performance, with iron ore futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 770.0 yuan/ton and a gain of 2.07% [1] - Supply is rebounding while iron and steel production is seasonally weakening, leading to increased inventory at ports, which raises the risk of overvaluation for iron ore [1] - The recent increase in iron ore prices is supported by macroeconomic factors, with expectations of continued high-level fluctuations in prices [1] Group 2 - Demand for iron ore remains resilient due to profit-driven raw material needs, despite a current decline in iron and steel production [2] - Global iron ore shipments have decreased recently, primarily due to disruptions in Australian shipments, while port inventory is being depleted rapidly [2] - The short-term macro outlook is strong, with attention on the continued export of steel billets and the positive feedback effect on raw materials [2]

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 宏观窗口与情绪交织， 矿价宽幅震荡 铁矿石月报 从业资格号：F03133967 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 2025/07/04 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 黑色产业链示意图 月度要点小结 ◆ 供应：测算6月全球铁矿石发运周均值3431.85万吨，环比+222.45万吨；6月，澳洲发往中国周均值1758.03万吨，较上月变化+175.41万吨。 巴西发运量周均值834.55万吨，较上月变化+41.19万吨。测算45港到港量周均值2479.88万吨，较上月环比+127.20万吨。 ◆ 需求：测算6月日均铁水产量241.93万吨，较上月变化-1.84万吨。 ◆ 库存：6月末，全国45个港口进口铁矿库存13930.23万吨，较上月变化+63.65万吨；45港铁矿石日均疏港量周均值319.29万吨，较上月变化 +5.61万吨；钢厂进口铁矿石库存8847.47万吨，较上月末变化+93.14万吨。 ◆ 小结：展望7月，供给方面， ...