Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper slightly increased its positions and rose, with the main contract price briefly reaching the 80,000 yuan mark at the end of the session. Macroscopically, the market showed a bullish sentiment, and non - ferrous metals as a whole were in a strong oscillation. Industrially, on Thursday, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from Monday. Against the backdrop of continuous macro - economic improvement, copper prices are likely to maintain a strong trend [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly, and its open interest continued to decline. Macroscopically, the market showed a bullish sentiment, and non - ferrous metals as a whole were in a strong oscillation, but aluminum underperformed in the sector. Industrially, on Thursday, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 494,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from Monday. In the short term, there are macro - level positives and industry - level negatives. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel oscillated strongly, with little change in open interest, and the main contract price reached the 124,000 yuan mark. Macroscopically, the market showed a bullish sentiment, and non - ferrous metals as a whole were in a strong oscillation, and nickel outperformed in the sector. Industrially, the trading atmosphere in the downstream stainless - steel market improved, which is a short - term positive for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices increased in positions and broke through the high point in early July, with strong upward momentum, and are expected to maintain a strong trend [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: US policy changes have affected the recycling market. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports starting from August 1, and China and the US jointly declared to cut reciprocal tariffs within 90 days. The new tariffs have led to more aluminum scrap being supplied to Mexican consumers. In the US, most aluminum rolling mills have sufficient recycled aluminum reserves, and the price of recycled aluminum scrap remained flat. In Canada, the flow of recycled aluminum decreased, and the factory output shrank significantly. In Thailand, many recycling and processing plants stopped operations due to stricter inspections of illegal waste dumping. On July 24, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 22,600 tons from the 17th and 3,700 tons from the 21st [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 24, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 494,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from the 17th and 14,000 tons from the 21st [9]. - **Nickel**: On July 24, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Jinchuan electrolytic nickel's mainstream premium was +1,900 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,620 yuan/ton; Russian nickel's mainstream premium was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,270 yuan/ton; Norwegian nickel's mainstream premium was +3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,320 yuan/ton; and nickel beans' mainstream premium was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,820 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Multiple charts are provided, including copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][41][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as inventory changes, trade policies, supply and demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. Different metals show different trends, with some expected to be weak, some to be volatile, and others to be affected by short - term factors [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper closed down 0.21% to $9,637/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77,950 yuan/ton. Trump's 50% copper tariff announcement will put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 10,525 tons to 121,000 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 50,000 tons [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend due to the tariff impact and the off - season [2]. - **Price Range**: The Shanghai copper main contract is expected to operate in the range of 77,200 - 78,600 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,500 - 9,720/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum closed down 0.29% to $2,575/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,425 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.65 tons to 33.6 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.7 tons to 42.4 tons [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term aluminum price may be volatile due to the low inventory and the off - season [4]. - **Price Range**: The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,550 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,540 - 2,600/ton [4]. Lead - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.20% to 16,911 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $2.5 to $1,986/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 58,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 271,100 tons [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price is expected to be weak due to the relatively loose supply [6]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.21% to 22,023 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $12.5 to $2,699/ton [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased to 93,100 tons [8]. - **Market Outlook**: In the long - term, the zinc price is expected to be bearish, while in the short - term, it is expected to be volatile [8]. Tin - **Price Movement**: The tin price was in a weak and volatile trend [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply shortage persists, and the demand is weak. The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces is 54.07% [9]. - **Inventory**: The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9,644 tons [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend due to the expected resumption of production in Myanmar [9]. - **Price Range**: The domestic tin price is expected to operate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price in the range of $31,000 - 35,000/ton [9]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: The nickel price fell and adjusted [10]. - **Supply Impact**: The fire at Zhejiang Zhongneng has limited impact on pure nickel supply [10]. - **Market Outlook**: The nickel iron price is expected to continue to fall, and it is recommended to short the nickel price at high levels [10]. - **Price Range**: The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,000/ton [10]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index was flat, and the LC2509 contract closed down 0.36% [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be affected by news and market sentiment [12]. - **Price Range**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange carbonate lithium 2509 contract is expected to operate in the range of 64,800 - 67,600 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 1.56% to 3,094 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,500 tons [15]. - **Market Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to short at high levels [15]. - **Price Range**: The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to operate in the range of 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,670 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [17]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased to 116,750 tons [17]. - **Market Outlook**: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile due to the off - season demand [17]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.15% to 19,820 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 40 tons to 28,000 tons [19]. - **Market Outlook**: The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to face resistance due to the off - season and the aluminum price pressure [19].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices stabilized and rebounded today with a continuous decline in open interest. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, but the announcement of a 50% import tariff on copper by Trump put pressure on copper prices. The market may worry about the closure of the US import window and a potential decline in non - US copper demand. Technically, there is strong support at the June price center [5]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices increased with open interest last night and the main contract price fluctuated narrowly around 20,700 yuan today. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, and the rise in the black and production - cut sectors was beneficial to aluminum prices. On July 10th, the electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 455,000 tons. With improved domestic macro - expectations, downstream industries' willingness to replenish inventory increased. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the June high, and the price is expected to remain strong [6]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices increased with open interest in the afternoon and the main contract price stood above 121,000 yuan. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved. Upstream mines were stable, downstream expectations improved, stainless steel strengthened, and downstream demand might improve, supporting nickel prices. Technically, the price stood above 120,000 yuan again and is expected to remain strong driven by the macro - environment [7]. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Trump announced on July 9th that a 50% tariff on all imported copper to the US would be imposed starting from August 1st. In Q2 2025, the I, II, and III phase concentrators of Kamoa - Kakula processed 3.62 million tons of ore, producing 112,000 tons of copper, a year - on - year increase of 11%. In the first half of 2025, it produced 245,000 tons of copper [9]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange listed the first recycled metal variety, cast aluminum alloy futures and options, on June 10th. As of July 9th, after 22 trading days, the cast aluminum alloy futures had a cumulative trading volume of 205,700 lots, with a post - market open interest of 10,200 lots, equivalent to 102,000 tons of spot, accounting for about 27% of the domestic monthly consumption of cast aluminum alloy. The cast aluminum alloy options had a cumulative trading volume of 41,500 lots and a post - market open interest of 6,000 lots [9]. - **Nickel**: On July 10th, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2050 yuan/ton at a price of 121,740 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 550 yuan/ton at 120,240 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 2750 yuan/ton at 122,440 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton at 118,790 yuan/ton [9]. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13] - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28] - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated upward with a slight decline in open interest. The domestic macro - atmosphere warmed up, and the stock and commodity markets rose generally. After the futures price declined, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory increased, and the spread between July and August strengthened. With short - term macro improvement and enhanced industrial support, the futures price stabilized and rebounded at the 20 - day moving average and is expected to continue to rebound [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum showed a strong - side fluctuation. The domestic macro - atmosphere warmed up, and the stock and commodity markets rose generally. Downstream entered the off - season and had a fear - of - high - price sentiment, causing the destocking of Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory to slow down. Technically, the futures price faced some pressure at the June high, and the support at the 20 - day moving average should be watched [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel dived in the morning session, and the main futures price fluctuated narrowly above 120,000. The domestic macro - atmosphere warmed up, and the stock and commodity markets rose generally, but nickel performed weakly in the non - ferrous sector. Fundamentally, with the domestic macro improvement and the strengthening of stainless steel, downstream demand may improve, supporting the nickel price. Technically, the support at the 120,000 mark should be watched [7]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Recently, many copper enterprises announced their production and operation conditions in the first half of 2025, with production and operation continuing to be stable and good, achieving the "double - half" goal and laying a solid foundation for the full - year goal. On July 7, Mysteel's domestic market electrolytic copper spot inventory was 147,500 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared with the 30th and an increase of 18,100 tons compared with the 3rd [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 7, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 465,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with the 3rd and an increase of 3,000 tons compared with the 30th [9]. - **Nickel**: On July 8, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the Shanghai nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 1,950 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,190 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 500 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,740 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,990 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,340 yuan/ton [10]. Group 4: Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina price trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 有色金属日报 2025-7-2 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 铅 周二沪铅指数收跌 0.56%至 17108 元/吨，单边交易总持仓 8.36 万手。截至周二下午 15：00，伦铅 3S 较前日同期跌 7 至 2041 美元/吨，总持仓 15.09 万手。SMM1#铅锭均价 16925 元/吨，再生精铅 均价 16875 元/吨，精废价差 50 元/吨，废电动车电池均价 1 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报 | | 收至 130 元/吨。佛山 A00 报价回落至 20490 元/吨，对无锡 A00 贴水 140 元/吨，铝棒 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 加工费包头河南临沂持稳，新疆南昌无锡广东下调 20-50 元/吨，铝杆 1A60 系、6/8 | 系 | | | 加工费持稳，低碳铝杆上调 93 元/吨。氧化铝远月矿石扰动和新增投产压力并存，区间 | | | | 震荡为主。电解铝需求边际走弱与低铸锭量和低仓单挤仓效应间存在博弈，宏观风险 | | | | 计价加码，警惕波动风险。废铝成本支撑仍在，铝合金持续关注滚动做多 AD-AL 价差 | | | | 机会。 | | | | 隔夜 LME 镍涨 0.5%报 15150 美元/吨，沪镍涨 0.75%报 120680 元/吨。库存方面，昨日 | | | | LME 库存减少 144 吨至 204216 吨，国内 SHFE 仓单减少 96 至 21263 吨。升贴水来 | | | | 看，LME0-3 月升贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水维持 250 元/吨。据铁合金，大厂 6 | 月 | | | 高镍铁第三轮招标价为 ...

Group 1 - Non-ferrous metal futures have risen, with aluminum oxide futures main contract increasing by over 2% [1] - Shanghai tin main contract rose by 1.63% [1] - International copper main contract increased by 1.47% [1] - Shanghai copper main contract rose by 1.32% [1] - Shanghai aluminum main contract increased by 1.28% [1]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走高，上涨 0.35%至 9694.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.15%至 | | | 78450 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势，且亏损幅度加大。宏观方面，美国 6 月 Markit | | | 综合 PMI 初值 52.8，高于预期 52.1，低于前值 53，创两个月新低，数据显示经济仍 | | | 在扩张之势，减缓了市场的担忧，但制造业和服务业都面临显著的价格上涨，通胀压 | | | 力逐渐显现。欧元区综合 PMI 从 5 月份的 52.2 降至 50.8，触及五个月低点，疲软的 | | | 欧元区经济与美经济韧性形成对比，或有利于美元的企稳。库存方面，LME 库存下降 | | | 3325 吨至 95875 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 1132 吨至 182524 吨；SMM 周一统计全国主 | | | 流地区铜库存环比上周五下降 1.63 万吨至 12.96 万吨，相比上周四库存的变化，全国 | | 铜 | 各地区的库存均是下降的。伊以 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices showed a weak oscillation, rising in the afternoon and then falling back. Despite the tense Middle - East situation, it didn't significantly impact domestic risk appetite. On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 131,900 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from last week. After the price decline last week, the industry's replenishment willingness increased, and the 7 - 8 month spread strengthened. Overseas, the premium of LME copper has been strengthening, indicating a shortage of overseas electrolytic copper. If the Middle - East situation doesn't escalate, copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise [5]. - **Aluminum**: In the morning, aluminum prices rose and then fell back, continuing to rise during the day. The weakening of the 7 - 8 month spread last week indicates a weakening industrial support. On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 462,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week. The recent price fluctuations with increasing positions may suggest an increase in the hedging willingness of upstream electrolytic aluminum plants. Technically, the main futures price broke below the 5 - day moving average, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 10 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, and the main futures price once fell below 117,000. Short - term macro conditions have turned cold, and nickel's fundamentals are weak. Upstream, nickel mines in the Philippines and Indonesia remain strong; downstream, stainless steel is weak, and nickel sulfate is stable. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the support at the low point in early April [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 131,900 tons, a decrease of 17,400 tons from June 19 and 10,500 tons from June 16. Recently, 188 tons of copper from the Democratic Republic of the Congo passed customs at Ningbo Customs and entered production at Jin Tian Copper Industry. Jin Tian Copper Industry's output value in 2024 exceeded 120 billion yuan, a 12.4% increase. From January to May this year, Ningbo's copper imports from Africa were worth 9.02 billion yuan, an increase of 78.8% [9]. - **Aluminum**: On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 462,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week and 12,000 tons from June 19 [6][10]. - **Nickel**: On June 23, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE Nickel 2507 contract. The mainstream premiums and discounts were as follows: Jinchuan electrolytic nickel +2,600 - +2,900 yuan/ton, Russian nickel +500 - +700 yuan/ton, nickel beans - 1,000 - - 800 yuan/ton, Bofeng nickel - 50 - +50 yuan/ton, Sumitomo nickel +2,400 - +2,500 yuan/ton, and Norwegian nickel +2,700 - +2,800 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper注销仓单比例, month spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report contains charts of aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, month spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The report presents charts of nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, month spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate and rise in the short - term, with the Shanghai copper main contract running in the range of 77,500 - 79,600 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 dollars/ton [2]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward trend in the short - term, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2,480 - 2,620 dollars/ton [4]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weak due to weak downstream consumption [6]. - Zinc prices have a large downward risk, but the start time of the market is uncertain [7]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton in the LME market [9]. - Nickel prices may fall, and it is advisable to short at high prices, with the short - term Shanghai nickel main contract running in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices may face selling pressure and need to be vigilant against weakening risks, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange main contract running in the range of 58,000 - 59,600 yuan/ton [12]. - Alumina prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and it is recommended to short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton [15]. - The subsequent trend of the stainless - steel market depends on whether the downstream demand can start substantial restocking [17]. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, LME copper rose slightly by 0.13% to 9,660 dollars/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,380 yuan/ton [2]. - Three major exchanges' inventories decreased by 10,000 tons, with SHFE inventory down 1,000 tons to 100,000 tons, LME inventory down 15,000 tons to 99,000 tons, and COMEX inventory up 7,000 tons to 183,000 tons [2]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 4,000 tons, and copper spot imports had a large loss [2]. - LME cash/3M premium widened to 275 dollars/ton, and domestic basis quotes rose after the contract change [2]. - The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed to 920 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises declined [2]. - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and demand improved slightly [2]. Aluminum - Last week, LME aluminum rose 2.34% to 2,561 dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract rose 0.12% [4]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline, with social inventory at 449,000 tons (down 11,000 tons week - on - week) and bonded area inventory at 114,000 tons (down 5,000 tons week - on - week) [4]. - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 343,000 tons, and Cash/3M turned to a premium [4]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production continued to rise slightly, and aluminum plant inventory declined slightly [4]. - The operating rate of aluminum products fluctuated and declined, with some products' operating rates falling and others remaining stable [4]. Lead - 3S fell 10 dollars to 1,982 dollars/ton, and the total position was 153,500 lots [6]. - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,725 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton [6]. - Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 51,200 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 287,400 tons [6]. - The export growth rate of lead - acid batteries declined significantly, and downstream consumption remained weak [6]. - The profit of primary lead smelting increased, and the operating rate rose to a historical high of about 70%, while the profit of secondary lead remained low [6]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.06% to 21,678 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 259,300 lots [7]. - LME zinc 3S rose 8 dollars to 2,625 dollars/ton, and the total position was 206,400 lots [7]. - SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,030 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied [7]. - SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 8,700 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 79,600 tons [7]. - LME zinc ingot inventory was 127,500 tons, and the cancelled warrant was 33,500 tons [7]. - The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, but the increase in social inventory is not obvious [7]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was tight, and domestic tin ore imports in June were expected to decrease by 500 - 1,000 tons [8]. - The raw material inventory of smelters in main production areas was generally less than 30 days, and some enterprises carried out maintenance or production cuts [8]. - Terminal enterprises entered the seasonal off - season, and orders for consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and photovoltaic declined [8]. - After tin prices rose to around 260,000 yuan/ton, downstream procurement willingness weakened [9]. - As of June 20, the social inventory of tin ingots in major markets decreased by 42 tons to 8,905 tons [9]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices were weak. The monthly output of refined nickel remained high [10]. - Spot demand was weak, and market trading was light [10]. - The visible inventory of domestic + LME increased by 6,165 tons to 241,000 tons [10]. - The supply of nickel ore was tight in the short - term due to the rainy season, but it was expected to ease after the rainy season [10]. - The price of nickel iron was weak in June, and some production lines switched to producing nickel matte [10]. Lithium Carbonate - On Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 59,777 yuan, down 0.31% from the previous trading day and 1.09% for the week [12]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.17% [12]. - The LC2509 contract closed at 58,900 yuan, down 1.93% from the previous day and 1.51% for the week [12]. - The supply clearance was slow, and domestic lithium salt production returned to a high level [12]. - Downstream entered the traditional mid - year off - season, and the marginal increase in demand declined [12]. Alumina - On June 20, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.31% to 2,883 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading decreased by 12,000 lots to 435,000 lots [14]. - Spot prices in some regions decreased, and the Shandong spot price was at a premium to the 07 contract [15]. - The MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at 367 dollars/ton, and the import window was closed [15]. - The futures warehouse receipt decreased by 6,300 tons to 42,900 tons [15]. - The price of bauxite in Guinea and Australia remained stable [15]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,505 yuan/ton, down 0.56% for the day, and the unilateral position increased by 5,358 lots to 279,900 lots [17]. - Spot prices in some markets decreased, and the futures inventory decreased by 780 tons to 114,089 tons [17]. - Social inventory increased to 1,157,400 tons, with 300 - series inventory at 692,100 tons (up 0.89% month - on - month) [17]. - The inventory of Qing Shan resources was high, suppressing steel prices, and downstream users were in a wait - and - see state [17]. - The industry faced cost pressure, and steel mills, agents, and traders were in a loss - making state [17].