Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The conflict between Iran and Israel has further escalated, with Israel attacking Iranian oil - field facilities and Iran responding. It is expected that crude oil prices will continue to rise, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow [2]. - PTA is expected to reduce inventory in the coming period. The actions of major factories to increase the basis for sales have had a significant impact on the market, and PTA spot is becoming tight. Polyester has recently rapidly reduced inventory, and the inventory has increased significantly. Affected by the rise in crude oil prices, market purchasing willingness has increased [2]. - For ethylene glycol, although the overall import volume from Iran is limited, the conflict escalation may affect Iran's petrochemical exports. Coal - based ethylene glycol profit has expanded, and the recent blockage of ethane imports from the United States has affected domestic ethylene glycol plants. Ethylene glycol will continue the inventory - reduction rhythm, and the arrival volume will decrease [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 552.7 yuan/barrel on June 18, 2025, to 570.9 yuan/barrel on June 19, 2025, an increase of 18.20 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 897.5 yuan/ton to 839.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58.26 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.2234 to 1.2023, a decrease of 0.0212; PTA main - contract futures price rose from 4914 yuan/ton to 4988 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.0 yuan/ton; PTA spot price remained at 5190 yuan/ton; spot processing fee decreased from 409.2 yuan/ton to 324.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84.5 yuan/ton; on - disk processing fee decreased from 103.2 yuan/ton to 92.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.5 yuan/ton; main - contract basis decreased from 293 to 270, a decrease of 23.0; PTA warehouse - receipt quantity decreased from 80591 to 37468, a decrease of 43123 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG main - contract futures price rose from 4471 yuan/ton to 4539 yuan/ton, an increase of 68.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (129.84) yuan/ton to (127.03) yuan/ton, an increase of 2.8 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price rose from 4529 yuan/ton to 4585 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.0 yuan/ton; main - contract basis increased from 82 to 86, an increase of 4.0 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX rose from 888 to 904, an increase of 16; PX - naphtha spread rose from 262 to 271, an increase of 9; PX operating rate decreased from 83.07% to 82.70%, a decrease of 0.37% [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: Decreased from 83.07% to 82.70%, a decrease of 0.37% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Decreased from 83.80% to 78.56%, a decrease of 5.24% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Increased from 56.16% to 57.88%, an increase of 1.72% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Decreased from 89.99% to 89.98%, a decrease of 0.01% [2]. Product Price and Cash - flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F decreased from 7130 to 7120, a decrease of 10.0; POY cash - flow decreased from (75) to (103), a decrease of 28.0; FDY150D/96F remained at 7445; FDY cash - flow decreased from (260) to (278), a decrease of 18.0; DTY150D/48F rose from 8370 to 8390, an increase of 20.0; DTY cash - flow increased from (35) to (33), an increase of 2.0; filament sales rate decreased from 59% to 31%, a decrease of 28% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber rose from 6835 to 6890, an increase of 55; staple - fiber cash - flow increased from (20) to 17, an increase of 37.0; staple - fiber sales rate decreased from 64% to 61%, a decrease of 3% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip decreased from 6055 to 6050, a decrease of 5.0; chip cash - flow decreased from (250) to (273), a decrease of 23.0; chip sales rate increased from 40% to 42%, an increase of 2% [2]. Device Maintenance - An East - China 1.5 - million - ton PTA device has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6; an East - China 3 - million - ton PTA device has recently shut down for maintenance, expected to last about 10 days [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, both domestic and imported PX supplies are tight, leading to a continuous upward trend. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on SC. The PXN spread has expanded to $261/ton, and short - term calendar spread arbitrage (buy near - term and sell far - term) is advisable [7][8]. - PTA: Supported by cost factors, both the single - side position and the calendar and basis spreads are strong. Despite increased maintenance by polyester bottle - chip and short - fiber factories, PTA supply remains tight, causing the basis to strengthen significantly [8]. - MEG: With the shutdown of Iranian ethylene glycol plants, MEG is expected to be in a short - term upward - trending and volatile state. It is recommended to reduce the position of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Attention should be paid to the operating status and shipping changes of Iranian ethylene glycol plants under the Israel - Iran conflict [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Variation**: On June 19, 2025, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 7094, 4988, 4539, 6794, and 3998 respectively, with daily changes of 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.6%, and 2.0% [1]. - **Calendar Spread**: The PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB07 calendar spreads on June 19 were 272, 206, 23, 74, and - 469 respectively, with daily changes of 52, 38, 7, 28, and 50 [1]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA07 - PF07, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 spreads on June 19 were 377, 449, - 1636, 887, and 1040 respectively, with daily changes of 5, 6, - 26, 20, and 12 [1]. - **Basis and Other Spreads**: The PX, PTA, MEG, PF basis, and PX - naphtha spreads on June 19 were 251, 270, 85, - 4, and 255 respectively, with daily changes of - 106, - 60, - 1, - 48, and no change [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 19, the PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts were 37468, 6052, 5464, 0, and 4029000 respectively, with daily changes of - 43123, no change, no change, - 5, and no change [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX Market**: On June 19, the PX price continued to rise, with an estimated price of $904/ton, up $16 from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread expanded to $261.38/ton. The PTA operating rate in China dropped from 82.6% to 79.1% due to plant maintenance, while the polyester operating rate was estimated at 92%, a 1.2% increase from the previous week [3][4]. - **PTA Market**: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northeast has shut down, and a 4.5 - million - ton plant in the South is gradually shutting down for about two months of maintenance. The PTA operating rate has dropped, and the Honggang Petrochemical Phase 3 2.5 - million - ton plant has started production and is operating at over 90% capacity [4][5]. - **MEG Market**: Two ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with a combined capacity of 1.4 million tons/year are scheduled to restart soon. As of June 19, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 70.33% (up 4.08% from the previous period), and a new 600,000 - ton/year synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol plant in Sichuan has been put into production [5][6]. - **Polyester Market**: The operating rate of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers has increased slightly, with an overall theoretical operating rate of about 73.2%. As of Thursday, the polyester operating rate in mainland China was around 92%. On June 19, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average production - sales ratio of 54%, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light, with an average production - sales ratio of about 30% [6][7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has signs of escalation, and oil prices have rebounded significantly. However, under the expectation of weak supply and demand, there is also significant pressure for oil prices to continue rising. If there is no further positive news, oil prices may face a correction. PX supply has increased significantly recently, and the supply - demand margin has weakened, but it still has support in the short term. PTA's supply - demand margin has also weakened, but it has support at low levels. Ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the short term. Short - fiber has a situation of weak supply and demand, and bottle - chip's supply - demand is expected to improve in June [2]. - **Methanol Industry**: The supply of methanol is generally in a loose pattern, and the demand side has a situation where MTO has mostly increased its load but downstream profits have deteriorated. The price can be operated in the range of 2200 - 2350 [21]. - **Styrene Industry**: The price of pure benzene has risen slightly, and the supply of styrene has increased. Downstream 3S profits have improved, and port inventories have decreased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the short - selling opportunities caused by the resonance of raw material ends in the medium term [26]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda Industry**: The supply of caustic soda has declined recently, and there is pressure on supply and demand in the short term. It is recommended to exit the 7 - 9 positive spread. PVC is expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a short - selling idea in the long term [71]. - **PE and PP Industry**: PE has a small increase in domestic supply and a decrease in imports, with limited supply pressure in June. PP has new capacity coming on - stream in June - July, and there is significant pressure on inventory accumulation [74]. - **Urea Industry**: The domestic urea market has a lackluster trading atmosphere, and the futures and spot prices continue to decline. It is expected to remain weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the adjustment of summer agricultural fertilizer preparation and export policies can improve the situation [82]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: Overnight crude oil prices oscillated and declined due to the fading of geopolitical risk premiums. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish approach, pay attention to the expansion opportunities of the monthly spread on the arbitrage side, and consider buying a straddle structure on the options side [86]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: On June 12, Brent crude oil (August) was at $69.36 per barrel, down 0.6% from the previous day; WTI crude oil (July) was at $68.15 per barrel, up 0.2%. CFR Japan naphtha was at $585 per ton, up 2.3% [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price was 6955 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; FDY150/96 price was 7210 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; DTY150/48 price was 8120 yuan per ton, up 0.3% [2]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX was at $818 per ton, up 0.7%; PX spot price (in RMB) was 6770 yuan per ton, down 0.5% [2]. - **PTA - related**: PTA East China spot price was 4855 yuan per ton, up 0.6%; TA futures 2509 was at 4620 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. - **MEG - related**: MEG port inventory was 63.4 million tons, up 2.1%; MEG to - port expectation was 12.8 million tons, up from 10.8 million tons [2]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate was 75.1%, up 3.1%; China PX operating rate was 87.0%, up 4.9%; PTA operating rate was 79.7%, up 4.0% [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price was 2353 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; MA2509 closing price was 2290 yuan per ton, up 0.35%; Taicang basis was 85 yuan per ton, up 6.92% [21]. - **Inventories**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 37.912%, up 2.33%; methanol port inventory was 65.2 million tons, up 12.22%; methanol social inventory was 103.1%, up 8.37% [21]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 75.14%, up 0.83%; downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 85.13%, up 0.72% [21]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil (August) was at $69.4 per barrel, down 0.6%; CFR Japan naphtha was at $585 per ton, up 2.3%; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was at $780 per ton, unchanged [23]. - **Spot and Futures**: Styrene East China spot price was 7815 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; EB2507 was at 7353 yuan per ton, up 0.1%; EB basis was 462 yuan per ton, up 12.4% [24]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: Styrene CFR China was at $910 per ton, up 0.2%; styrene import profit was 174.6 yuan per ton, up 34.3% [25]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits**: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive operating rate was 77.2%, up 5.9%; styrene operating rate was 72.3%, up 0.4%; styrene integrated profit was 162.6 yuan per ton, down 61.2% [26]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Spot and Futures**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2718.8 yuan per ton, unchanged; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4720 yuan per ton, unchanged [67]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port caustic soda was at $410 per ton, unchanged; PVC CFR Southeast Asia was at $670 per ton, unchanged [67][68]. - **Supply - side Operating Rates and Profits**: Caustic soda industry operating rate was 87.9%, up 0.8%; PVC total operating rate was 77.5%, up 3.8%; external - procurement calcium - carbide - based PVC profit was - 912 yuan per ton, up 13.3% [69]. - **Demand - side Operating Rates**: Alumina industry operating rate was 78.8%, up 0.7%; viscose staple fiber industry operating rate was 80.6%, unchanged [70]. - **Inventories**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 23.3 million tons, up 11.9%; PVC upstream factory inventory was 39.8 million tons, up 3.5% [71]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 closing price was 7086 yuan per ton, up 0.16%; PP2601 closing price was 6918 yuan per ton, up 0.14%; East China PP drawbench spot price was 7040 yuan per ton, unchanged [74]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate was 79.2%, up 2.27%; PP device operating rate was 78.6%, up 2.1% [74]. - **Inventories**: PE enterprise inventory was 50.9 million tons, down 1.74%; PP enterprise inventory was 58.1 million tons, down 3.93% [74]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: 01 contract was at 1635 yuan per ton, down 0.73%; 05 contract was at 1664 yuan per ton, down 1.25%; 09 contract was at 1646 yuan per ton, down 1.26% [77]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: 01 contract - 05 contract was - 29 yuan per ton, up 23.68%; UR - MA main contract was - 655 yuan per ton, down 3.15% [78]. - **Main Positions**: Long top 20 was 176769 lots, up 6.68%; short top 20 was 197913 lots, up 8.10%; long - short ratio was 0.89, down 1.32% [79]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) were at 900 yuan per ton, down 5.26%; synthetic ammonia (Shandong) was at 2239 yuan per ton, down 0.18% [80]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Shandong (small particles) was at 1740 yuan per ton, down 0.57%; FOB China: small particles were at $360 per ton, unchanged [81]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output was 20.68 million tons, up 1.00%; domestic urea weekly output was 141.32 million tons, down 1.82%; domestic urea factory inventory (weekly) was 117.71 million tons, up 13.69% [82]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent was at $69.36 per barrel, down 0.59%; WTI was at $68.79 per barrel, up 1.10%; Brent M1 - M3 was $1.69 per barrel, up 3.05% [86]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB was 215.90 cents per gallon, up 0.75%; NYM ULSD was 220.77 cents per gallon, up 0.87%; ICE Gasoil was $645 per ton, up 1.45% [86]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: US gasoline crack spread was $21.89 per barrel, down 0.34%; European diesel crack spread was $20.55 per barrel, down 1.32% [86].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is starting, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a phase of negative factor realization. With an unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral price direction is hard to determine. Due to the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferable [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profits are around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD is weakening. In June, maintenance decreases and domestic linear production increases. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new device commissioning [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import profits are around - 500. Exports are good this year. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be relieved if exports increase or PDH device maintenance increases [6]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened. Downstream has a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. In June, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and downstream performance is average. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [10]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2265 to 2322, and the import profit remained at 320. The daily change on June 6 showed an increase of 5 in the Jiangsu spot price, while other indicators had little change [1]. - **Market Situation**: High imports are being realized, and inventory accumulation has begun. Iran has reduced its production, but there is an increase from non - Iranian sources and domestic supply [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780, and the North China LL price increased from 7000 to 7070. The daily change on June 6 showed an increase of 20 in the North China LL price [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, with upstream and coal - chemical sectors reducing inventory. Import profits are around - 400, and non - standard HD injection prices are stable [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6380 to 6350, and the East China PP price increased from 6990 to 7060. The daily change on June 6 showed an increase of 40 in the East China PP price [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is +100, and non - standard price differentials are neutral. Exports are good this year, and supply is expected to increase slightly in June [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2250 (since June 3), and the calcium carbide - based East China price increased from 4720 to 4760. The daily change on June 6 showed an increase of 50 in the calcium carbide - based East China price [10]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The basis has strengthened, and mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability in June [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Given the unclear outcome of the US - Iran negotiation, lack of clear OPEC production increase data, and the support from shale oil, it's not advisable to chase short positions even if the negotiation is successful. Short - term, it's better to stay on the sidelines for crude oil [1]. - For methanol, considering the ample supply and weak macro - environment, there may be a further decline. One - sided trading can focus on short positions on rallies, and for cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [3]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, the price is expected to have no obvious trend. One - sided trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. - For rubber, it shows a strong - side oscillation. Short - term long or neutral thinking is recommended, with short - term operations and quick in - and - out. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9][11]. - For PVC, although the inventory decline is fast in the short - term, due to the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, but beware of the rebound if the weak export expectation is not realized [13]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven to supply - driven decline. With no new capacity planned in June, the price may oscillate [15]. - For polypropylene, with planned capacity release in June and the approaching of the seasonal off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in June [16]. - For PX, the maintenance season is ending, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, and it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [18]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [19][20]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is in the de - stocking stage, but there is a risk of valuation correction as the maintenance season on the supply side is ending [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - WTI主力原油期货收涨0.51美元，涨幅0.81%，报63.25美元；布伦特主力原油期货收涨0.38美元，涨幅0.59%，报65.29美元；INE主力原油期货收跌4.50元，跌幅0.96%，报463.7元 [6]. - 新加坡油品周度数据显示，汽油库存累库0.08百万桶至13.10百万桶，环比累库0.62%；柴油库存去库0.69百万桶至9.24百万桶，环比去库6.91%；燃料油库存累库0.24百万桶至22.58百万桶，环比累库1.09%；总成品油去库0.36百万桶至44.92百万桶，环比去库0.80% [6]. Methanol - 6月5日09合约跌11元/吨，报2259元/吨，现货涨8元/吨，基差+51 [3]. - 供应端开工见底回升至同期高位，企业利润高位回落，预计短期供应维持高位；需求端港口MTO装置开工回到高位，传统需求开工回升，需求小幅好转，港口累库慢价格偏强，内地供增需弱价格走低，港口与内地价差扩大 [3]. Urea - 6月5日09合约跌52元/吨，报1722元/吨，现货跌10元/吨，基差+111 [5]. - 供应维持高位，日产持续走高；需求端复合肥夏季肥结束，企业开工回落，对尿素需求减少，企业预收订单回落，库存累至同期高位，盘面价格下跌 [5]. Rubber - NR和RU偏强震荡 [9]. - 多头认为东南亚尤其是泰国的天气、橡胶林现状和政策可能助于减产；空头认为宏观预期转差，需求平淡处于季节性淡季，高价会刺激新增供应，减产幅度可能不及预期 [10]. - 截至6月5日，山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为63.45%，较上周走低1.33个百分点，较去年同期走高2.56个百分点；半钢胎企业开工负荷为73.49%，较上周走低4.39个百分点，较去年同期走低6.75个百分点，海外新接订单不佳 [11]. - 截至6月1日，中国天然橡胶社会库存128万吨，环比下降2.8万吨，降幅2.1%；深色胶社会总库存为76.3万吨，环比下降3.4%；浅色胶社会总库存为51.7万吨，环比降0.1% [11]. PVC - PVC09合约下跌87元，报4747元，常州SG - 5现货价4680元/吨，基差 - 67元/吨，9 - 1价差 - 67元/吨 [13]. - 成本端持稳，本周整体开工率78.2%，环比上升2%；需求端下游开工46.2%，环比下降0.8%；厂内库存38.5万吨，社会库存59.8万吨，均有下降 [13]. - 企业利润压力大，检修季接近尾声，后续产量预期回升，有装置投产预期；下游开工疲弱转淡季，出口签单转弱，成本端电石下跌，估值支撑减弱，短期预计偏弱震荡 [13]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - 期货价格下跌，加拿大阿尔伯塔大火弥补OPEC + 7月增产41.1万桶计划量，现货价格无变动，PE估值向上空间有限 [15]. - 二季度供应端新增产能大，供应承压；上中游库存去库对价格支撑有限，季节性淡季需求端农膜订单递减，开工率震荡下行，6月无新增产能投产计划，价格或维持震荡 [15]. - 主力合约收盘价7034元/吨，下跌15元/吨，现货7125元/吨无变动，基差91元/吨，走强15元/吨；上游开工76.52%，环比下降1.10%；生产企业库存51.77万吨，环比累库3.57万吨，贸易商库存5.83万吨，环比累库0.01万吨；下游平均开工率39.2%，环比下降0.10%；LL9 - 1价差29元/吨，环比缩小2元/吨 [15]. Polypropylene - 期货价格下跌，加拿大阿尔伯塔大火弥补OPEC + 7月增产41.1万桶计划量，现货价格上涨但跌幅小于PE [16]. - 6月供应端有220万吨计划产能投放，需求端下游开工率随塑编订单见顶后或季节性震荡下行，预计6月价格偏空 [16]. - 主力合约收盘价6911元/吨，下跌37元/吨，现货7120元/吨，上涨5元/吨，基差209元/吨，走强42元/吨；上游开工78.31%，环比上涨0.65%；生产企业库存60.51万吨，环比累库5.18万吨，贸易商库存14.76万吨，环比累库1.15万吨，港口库存6.64万吨，环比累库0.15万吨；下游平均开工率50.29%，环比下降0.43%；LL - PP价差123元/吨，环比扩大22元/吨 [16]. Polyester PX - PX09合约下跌38元，报6540元，PX CFR下跌5美元，报820美元，按人民币中间价折算基差252元，9 - 1价差182元 [18]. - 中国负荷82.1%，环比上升4.1%；亚洲负荷72%，环比上升2.6%；辽阳石化、中海油惠州等装置重启或提负荷，海外部分装置有重启和检修 [18]. - 5月韩国PX出口中国30.3万吨，同比下降8.7万吨；4月底库存451万吨，月环比下降17万吨；PXN为263美元，石脑油裂差87美元 [18]. - 检修季结束，6月去库放缓，三季度因PTA新装置投产重新进入去库周期，终端纺服出口预期偏强，聚酯库存低，原料端负反馈压力小，短期估值升至中性偏高水平，预计震荡 [18]. PTA - PTA09合约下跌26元，报4644元，华东现货下跌20元/吨，报4845元，基差216元，9 - 1价差138元 [19]. - PTA负荷79.7%，环比上升3.3%，部分装置重启或推后；下游负荷91.3%，环比下降0.4%，部分装置有减产或重启；终端加弹负荷下降2%至80%，织机负荷下降1%至68% [19]. - 5月30日社会库存（除信用仓单）220.8万吨，环比去库9.4万吨；现货加工费上涨8元，至389元，盘面加工费下跌1元，至354元 [19]. - 供给端处于检修季，需求端聚酯化纤库存压力小，预期持续去库，加工费有支撑，绝对价格预计震荡 [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - EG09合约下跌9元，报4283元，华东现货上涨8元，报4425元，基差130元，9 - 1价差31元 [21]. - 供给端负荷60%，环比上升0.2%，部分装置有检修和重启；海外部分装置重启；下游负荷91.3%，环比下降0.4%，部分装置有减产或重启；终端加弹负荷下降2%至80%，织机负荷下降1%至68% [21]. - 进口到港预报10.8万吨，华东出港6月4日0.77万吨，出库下降，港口库存62.1万吨，去库6.6万吨；石脑油制利润为 - 362元，国内乙烯制利润 - 455元，煤制利润1177元；成本端乙烯持平，榆林坑口烟煤末价格上涨 [21]. - 产业处于去库阶段，终端出口偏强，聚酯化纤库存压力小，但估值修复大，供给端检修季结束，有估值回调风险 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, considering the unclear results of the US - Iran negotiations, the lack of clear OPEC production - increase data, and the shale - oil bottom - support effect, even if the negotiations are successful, it's not suitable to chase short positions due to the current risk - return ratio. It's recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. - For methanol, with the weakening of inland prices, the stabilization of coal, and the return of previously shut - down plants, the domestic supply will return to a high level, and imports in June will increase significantly. The overall supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak, and it's recommended to consider short positions on rallies. For cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [4]. - For urea, the domestic production is at a record high and expected to remain high in the short term. Demand is lukewarm. It's recommended to wait and see for single - side trading as there's no obvious price trend and the basis is at a low level [6]. - For rubber, the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke has boosted the bullish sentiment of NR and RU. It's recommended to adopt a short - term long - trading strategy and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10][12]. - For PVC, although the inventory decline is fast in the short term, the supply - demand situation is expected to be supply - strong and demand - weak. The mid - term fundamentals are weak [13]. - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate in June as the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to supply - driven decline, and there are no new capacity - production plans in June [15]. - For polypropylene, with the concentrated capacity release in June and the approaching of the seasonal off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in June [16]. - For PX, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. It's expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [18]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [19][20]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is in the de - stocking stage, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season is coming to an end [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude - oil futures closed down $0.60, a 0.95% decline, at $62.74; Brent main crude - oil futures closed down $0.70, a 1.07% decline, at $64.91; INE main crude - oil futures closed up 5.70 yuan, a 1.23% increase, at 468.2 yuan [1]. - **Data**: US commercial crude - oil inventory decreased by 4.30 million barrels to 436.06 million barrels, a 0.98% decline; SPR increased by 0.51 million barrels to 401.82 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventory increased by 5.22 million barrels to 228.30 million barrels, a 2.34% increase; diesel inventory increased by 4.23 million barrels to 107.64 million barrels, a 4.09% increase; fuel - oil inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 23.27 million barrels, a 0.98% decline; aviation - kerosene inventory increased by 0.94 million barrels to 43.65 million barrels, a 2.20% increase [1]. Methanol - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Inland prices are weakening, coal is stabilizing, and enterprise profits have declined significantly. With the return of previously shut - down plants, domestic supply will increase, and imports in June will rise. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak [4]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Consider short positions on rallies for single - side trading. For cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [4]. Urea - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Domestic production is at a record high and expected to remain high. The compound - fertilizer summer - fertilizer season is ending, and the agricultural demand will increase gradually. Exports are expected to improve slightly after the policy implementation [6]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Wait and see for single - side trading [6]. Rubber - **Market Sentiment**: The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke has boosted the bullish sentiment of NR and RU [10]. - **Supply - Demand Views**: Bulls think that the weather, rubber - forest situation, and policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is deteriorating, demand is flat, it's the seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices may stimulate new supply [11]. - **Data**: As of May 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.78%, down 0.16 percentage points from last week and up 3.91 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 77.88%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week and down 2.40 percentage points from the same period last year. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural - rubber social inventory was 1.342 million tons, a 0.96% decline; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 818,000 tons, a 1.5% decline; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 524,000 tons, a 0.1% decline [12]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term long - trading strategy and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 89 yuan to 4,834 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,680 (+10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 154 (- 79) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 37 (- 13) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost is stable, the overall operating rate is 78.2%, up 2% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate is 46.2%, down 0.8% week - on - week. Factory inventory is 385,000 tons (- 2,000), and social inventory is 598,000 tons (- 26,000). The enterprise profit is under pressure, and the supply is expected to increase as the maintenance season ends [13]. Polyethylene - **Price Analysis**: The futures price rose. The Canadian Alberta wildfires offset the OPEC + 411,000 - barrel - per - day production - increase plan in July. The spot price remained unchanged, and the valuation's upward space is limited. The supply in the second quarter is under pressure, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season [15]. - **Market Quotes**: The main - contract closing price was 7,049 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7,125 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 76 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The upstream operating rate was 79.33%, up 1.92% week - on - week. The production - enterprise inventory was 482,000 tons, down 16,400 tons week - on - week, and the trader inventory was 58,200 tons, up 1,100 tons week - on - week. The downstream average operating rate was 39.3%, down 0.09% week - on - week [15]. Polypropylene - **Price Analysis**: The futures price rose. The Canadian Alberta wildfires offset the OPEC + 411,000 - barrel - per - day production - increase plan in July. The spot price remained unchanged, and the decline was smaller than that of PE. There are 2.2 million tons of planned capacity to be put into production in June, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season [16]. - **Market Quotes**: The main - contract closing price was 6,948 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7,115 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 167 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The upstream operating rate was 75.74%, down 0.01% week - on - week. The production - enterprise inventory was 553,300 tons, down 39,900 tons week - on - week, the trader inventory was 136,100 tons, down 16,900 tons week - on - week, and the port inventory was 64,900 tons, down 5,600 tons week - on - week. The downstream average operating rate was 50.29%, down 0.43% week - on - week [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 54 yuan to 6,578 yuan, and PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 825 dollars. The basis was 258 yuan (- 44), and the 9 - 1 spread was 180 yuan (- 4) [18]. - **Operating Rate**: China's PX operating rate was 82.1%, up 4.1% week - on - week; Asia's was 72%, up 2.6% week - on - week [18]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: The de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter due to the new PTA plant commissioning. It's expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [18]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4,670 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 4,865 yuan. The basis was 197 yuan (- 10), and the 9 - 1 spread was 138 yuan (+2) [19]. - **Operating Rate**: The PTA operating rate was 76.4%, down 0.7% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate was 91.7%, down 2.2% week - on - week [19]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: It will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 14 yuan to 4,292 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 62 yuan to 4,417 yuan. The basis was 128 (- 19), and the 9 - 1 spread was 30 yuan (- 23) [21]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side operating rate was 59.8%, up 0.1% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate was 91.7%, down 2.2% week - on - week. The port inventory was 621,000 tons, down 66,000 tons [21]. - **Outlook**: The industry is in the de - stocking stage, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season is coming to an end [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - International crude oil futures prices have been rising, supported by a weakening US dollar and geopolitical risks. The supply - side OPEC+ production increase has alleviated concerns, but trade frictions suppress demand. After the holiday, the short - term trend depends on the US dollar, geopolitical situation, and supply - demand re - balancing. Unilateral trading can be in a slightly bullish direction, with WTI in the range of [59, 69], Brent [61, 71], and SC [440, 500]. Pay attention to the rebound opportunity of INE spreads and consider buying a straddle option to capture post - holiday volatility [8]. Styrene - In June, the supply - demand of styrene is expected to gradually become looser, and the price remains under pressure. However, due to tight spot circulation, the near - end price may fluctuate. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach [2]. Chlor - Alkali - For caustic soda, short - term spot prices remain strong. Before the fundamentals significantly weaken or warehouse receipts flow out, consider expanding the spread between the near - month and September contracts. For PVC, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions are prominent. In June, supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach, with an operating range of 4500 - 5000, while also paying attention to macro - level disturbances [30][40]. Urea - The core contradiction of urea lies in high supply and weak demand expectations. Currently, supply is abundant, and demand is in a seasonal off - peak. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market will test whether agricultural fertilizer procurement can start effectively. If not, it may further pressure the market [44]. Polyolefin - For plastics, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in early June due to increased maintenance and less imports. For PP, supply pressure will increase as maintenance ends. Demand lacks sustainability after a round of replenishment. Unilateral trading for PP can be short - biased at high prices, and the LP spread is expected to widen [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: In June, PX supply - demand is expected to be tight, but may weaken after mid - June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels, gradually exit the PX9 - 1 positive spread, and look for opportunities to narrow the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: In June, PTA supply - demand remains tight but may weaken in late June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels and exit the TA9 - 1 positive spread at high prices [50]. - **MEG**: In June, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is good, with inventory reduction expectations. Consider buying EG09 at around 4200 and taking a positive spread for EG9 - 1 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: In June, short - fiber supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost. Consider expanding the PF July processing fee around 800 [50]. - **Bottle chips**: In June, bottle chip supply - demand is expected to improve, and processing fees will be supported. Consider expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [50]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread Data**: On June 3, Brent was at $65.12/barrel, WTI at $63.05/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 decreased, while SC M1 - M3 increased. Refined oil prices generally rose, and some cracking spreads decreased [8]. Styrene - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, most upstream prices decreased, and some styrene - related prices and spreads also changed. For example, styrene - pure benzene spread decreased by 2.5%. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to loosen in June [2]. Chlor - Alkali - **PVC and Caustic Soda Data**: On May 30, most PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices were stable or changed slightly. Caustic soda exports had a small profit change, and PVC exports' profit increased significantly. In June, caustic soda maintenance is high, and PVC supply pressure is expected to increase [30][40]. Urea - **Futures and Related Data**: On May 30, most urea futures prices decreased slightly. Supply is high, with daily production increasing, and demand is weak, in a seasonal off - peak [44]. Polyolefin - **PE and PP Data**: On May 30, PE and PP futures prices decreased. Some spreads and basis values changed. In early June, plastics may see inventory reduction, while PP supply pressure will increase later [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, upstream and downstream prices in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, PX prices decreased, and some polyester product prices and cash - flows also changed. Different products in the polyester chain have different supply - demand and price trends in June [50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, high imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the market is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but due to low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [3]. - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD is weakening. In 2025, new devices pose significant pressure, and attention should be paid to their commissioning [8]. - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories are accumulating. The basis is +10, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around -500. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly. In the context of over - capacity, the 05 contract faces pressure, which can be relieved by export growth or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH devices [8]. - For PVC, the basis is strengthening. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and factors like exports, coal prices, and terminal orders should be monitored [12]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801. The daily changes in江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面, CFR中国, CFR东南亚,进口利润,主力基差, and盘面MTO利润 were 0, 20, 5, - 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9, 20, - 13 respectively [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,东北亚乙烯 remained at 780. The daily changes in华北LL,华东LL,华东LD,华东HD, LL美金, LL美湾,进口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 were - 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, - 65, 30, - 2, 0 respectively [8]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,山东丙烯 and东北亚丙烯 remained stable in some cases. The daily changes in华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚, PP美金, PP美湾,出口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 were - 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, - 43, 20, - 2, - 133 respectively [8]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,西北电石 decreased from 2450 to 2350,山东烧碱 increased from 867 to 885. The daily change in基差(高端交割品) was 10 [11][12].

甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/2 3 801 2302 2303 2460 2600 2460 2630 256 327 70 50 -818 2025/05/2 6 801 2285 2300 2410 2565 2460 2525 256 327 58 40 -843 2025/05/2 7 801 2250 2275 2390 2520 2325 2505 254 327 39 40 -828 2025/05/2 8 801 2255 2275 2355 2520 2300 2500 255 327 29 25 -825 2025/05/2 9 801 2245 2278 2353 2510 2300 2495 255 327 32 15 -836 日度变化 0 -10 3 -2 -10 0 -5 0 0 3 -10 -11 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降开工，非伊增量，国内供应增 加，总体来说处于利 空兑 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is active due to the suspension of US tariff measures and the support from major PTA suppliers. The supply of PX has started to increase, and the basis of PTA has weakened significantly. There is selling pressure in the market, and the positive spread has weakened. Polyester may experience a slight production cut. [2] - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports remains at over 700,000 tons. The coal - based ethylene glycol device load increase puts pressure on the market, but coal prices have started to rise. The mainstream device load of ethylene glycol is about to be overhauled, and it will enter the de - stocking stage. [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Quotes - INE crude oil price increased from 453.0 yuan/barrel on May 28, 2025, to 467.1 yuan/barrel on May 29, 2025, with an increase of 14.10 yuan/barrel. The PTA price in the East China market rose to 4951 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton. The spot price of PTA increased from 4880 yuan/ton to 4950 yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee increased from 322.5 yuan/ton to 354.8 yuan/ton. [2] - The spot price of ethylene glycol in the Zhangjiagang market rose to 4512 - 4514 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous working day. [2] Industrial Chain - PX: CFR China PX increased from 836 to 852, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 269 to 290. [2] - PTA: The PTA main futures price increased from 4672 yuan/ton to 4814 yuan/ton. The on - disk processing fee increased from 134.5 yuan/ton to 188.8 yuan/ton. [2] - MEG: The MEG main futures price increased from 4311 yuan/ton to 4359 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha spread changed from (83.63) to (82.82). [2] Product Situation - Polyester filament: The prices of POY, FDY, and DTY had different changes, and the cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY all decreased. The filament production and sales rate decreased from 72% to 56%. [2] - Polyester staple fiber: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6590 to 6625, and the cash flow decreased from 12 to (9). The short - fiber production and sales rate increased from 52% to 93%. [2] - Polyester chips: The price of semi - bright chips increased from 5850 to 5905, and the chip cash flow decreased from (178) to (179). The chip production and sales rate increased from 36% to 163%. [2] Device Maintenance - Three major polyester filament manufacturers decided to immediately implement production cuts for loss - making products and plan the next - step production cut plan, which will be implemented in the short term. [2]