Core Viewpoint - Despite the ruling coalition of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) losing its majority in the House of Councillors election, the Japanese yen and stock index futures unexpectedly rose [1][4]. Group 1: Election Results and Market Reaction - The LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, lost their majority in the House of Councillors for the first time since the LDP's establishment in 1955 [1]. - Following the election results, Japanese stock index futures rose unexpectedly, and the yen appreciated by 0.7% against the US dollar before narrowing its gains [1]. - Market analysts noted that investors had anticipated the LDP's loss but the actual results were milder than expected, alleviating fears of severe political turmoil [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Positioning - Prior to the election, the yen had declined for two consecutive weeks, and even risk-tolerant hedge funds paused their bets on Japanese assets [4]. - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported that as of July 11, commodity trading advisors still held significant long positions in the yen, indicating that market positioning did not fully reflect the anticipated election outcome [4]. - Bank of America noted that hedge funds bought yen against the euro between July 14-16, suggesting profit-taking actions [6]. Group 3: Key Variables Influencing Future Market Trends - The future price movements will depend on three factors: whether the LDP retains or loses its coalition majority, whether Prime Minister Kishida remains in office, and the outcome of any leadership elections if Kishida resigns [9]. - If Kishida resigns, the market may consider the risks associated with the subsequent leadership election, potentially leading to further yen depreciation and increased volatility [9]. - Conversely, if Kishida remains and seeks to expand the coalition with compatible parties, it may alleviate concerns over pro-cyclical fiscal policies, initially pushing the USD/JPY rate down to around 148 [9]. Group 4: Long-term Political Uncertainty - Analysts from Bank of America maintain a bearish outlook on the yen, suggesting that any short-term rebounds should be viewed as opportunities to sell [9]. - Even if the LDP retains a majority, any rebound in the yen may be temporary due to ongoing political uncertainties, especially during the upcoming autumn parliamentary session [9]. - Nomura previously indicated that the loss of majority seats could lead to a dual policy of consumption tax cuts and cash subsidies, which might boost the economy in the short term but could result in a significant economic downturn once these policies expire [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the contradictions in the crude oil market are not prominent, and the oil price is in a volatile and oscillating process. Seasonal demand supports the prices of refined oil and crude oil, and the expectations of tariff negotiations and geopolitical situations are relatively relaxed, making it difficult to determine the direction of oil prices. In the medium and long term, the view in the semi - annual report is maintained, with a cautious bullish outlook. The improvement of macro and policy expectations, including the successful passage of the US tax - cut bill and China's "anti - involution" policy, boosts the sentiment of commodity bulls. Although the crude oil market is still in the OPEC+ production - increasing cycle, the new round of fiscal expansion brought by the tax - cut bill may support the long - term economic improvement, and it may be better to look for opportunities to go long on dips [5][67]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Range - bound and Volatility Regression**: After the geopolitical conflict subsided, crude oil trading returned to fundamental and macro factors. The macro factors were positive while the fundamental factors were negative, resulting in a three - week oscillating process with a volatility regression. As of July 17, the WTI crude oil futures active contract closed at $66.31 per barrel, Brent crude oil at $69.65 per barrel, and the SC crude oil futures active contract at 516.8 yuan per barrel [5][10]. - **Continued Oscillation of Calendar Spreads**: The calendar spreads of crude oil continued to oscillate [11]. - **Brent Fund Net Long Positions Returned to a Neutral to High Level**: As of the week ending July 8, the WTI fund net long positions were 145,697 lots, a decrease of 28,936 lots from the previous week. The Brent fund net long positions were 217,832 lots, an increase of 51,322 lots from the previous week. In the refined oil market, the net long positions of gasoline increased by 2,676 lots, diesel by 12,369 lots, and heating oil by 6,534 lots [16]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC+**: The production - increasing expectations are gradually being realized. At the July 5 meeting, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August and is expected to approve another significant production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September. By then, the voluntarily cut production of about 2.2 million barrels per day by OPEC+ will be fully restored. In June, OPEC's crude oil production was 27.235 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 219,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 700,000 barrels per day. The main contributor to the increase was Saudi Arabia, with a month - on - month increase of 173,000 barrels per day, while Iran's production decreased by 62,000 barrels per day [20]. - **United States**: The daily crude oil production is oscillating at a high level. As of the week ending July 11, the weekly US crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 13.407 million barrels per day. The Trump administration's new bill aims to increase shale oil production in the long term, but the short - term willingness to increase production is still restricted [26]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - **United States**: The overall demand is declining, and there is a risk of a weak peak season. As of the week ending July 11, the demand for refined oil products decreased. The demand for gasoline was 8.489 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 670,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 294,000 barrels per day; the demand for distillates was 3.423 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 245,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 162,000 barrels per day; the demand for jet fuel was 1.627 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 298,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 193,000 barrels per day. The total demand for petroleum products was 19.184 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 1.679 million barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 246,000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.2 percentage points; the crude oil processing volume was 16.849 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 157,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 79,000 barrels per day [30][39]. - **China**: Consumption improved in June, but the demand outlook for the second half of the year is dull. In June, the crude oil processing volume was 62.245 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.134 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.927 million tons, mainly due to the significant increase in the operation rate of major refineries. In the second half of the year, the operation rate of domestic refineries is expected to remain at a relatively low level, affected by tax policy adjustments and the energy demand transformation [43]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - **United States**: Crude oil inventory is being converted into refined oil inventory. The US crude oil inventory decreased slightly and is currently at a relatively low level in the past five years. As of the week ending July 11, the US crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 422.162 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.859 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 18.064 million barrels. The SPR inventory was 402.703 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 300,000 barrels. The refined oil inventory increased overall, with the distillate inventory still at a five - year low [50][55]. - **OECD**: The demand was good in June, and the OECD inventory decreased slightly. In June 2025, the global crude oil supply was 104.9 million barrels per day, the demand was 104.43 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 470,000 barrels per day. The OECD inventory decreased to 2.796 billion barrels at the end of June, a month - on - month decrease of 15 million barrels [62]. 5. Summary and Outlook - The market has been oscillating with a volatility regression in the past three weeks. In the short term, the oil price is oscillating, and in the medium and long term, it is cautiously bullish. The improvement of macro and policy expectations may support the long - term economic improvement, and it may be better to look for opportunities to go long on dips in the crude oil market [67].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the volatility in Japan's long-term bond market, with a primary trend of declining yields, particularly in the 10-year bonds which fell by 10 basis points to 1.56% [1] - On July 15, Japan's bond market experienced significant fluctuations, with the 10-year yield reaching a peak of 1.59%, the highest since October 2008, indicating heightened market tension [1] - Concerns regarding potential fiscal expansion following the Japanese Senate elections are seen as a trigger for the recent turmoil in the long-term bond market, raising fears of increased debt levels [1] Group 2 - Japan's public debt-to-GDP ratio stands at a staggering 263%, significantly higher than the 142% during the 2010 Greek debt crisis, illustrating the severity of Japan's debt situation [2] - The continuous growth of Japan's debt is attributed to three decades of expansionary fiscal policies aimed at reviving economic growth, leading to concerns about potential loss of control over the debt situation [2] - If Japan's debt issues escalate, it could lead to higher borrowing costs for the government, squeezing fiscal space and impacting public services and infrastructure investments, alongside a potential decline in international investor confidence [2]

Group 1 - Japan's long-term bond market is experiencing volatility, with the 10-year bond yield dropping to 1.56% after reaching a high of 1.59%, the highest since October 2008 [1][3] - The public debt-to-GDP ratio in Japan is currently at 263%, significantly higher than Greece's 142% during the 2010 debt crisis, indicating a severe debt situation [2][7] - Concerns are rising about the potential for increased fiscal spending following the upcoming Senate elections, which could exacerbate Japan's debt crisis [3][4] Group 2 - The recent increase in bond yields across various maturities suggests a market reaction to the Bank of Japan's adjustments in its quantitative easing policy, leading to reduced liquidity [3][6] - Major Japanese life insurance companies are reducing their holdings in long-term bonds due to significant losses, with a reported $600 million in unrealized losses last fiscal year [5][6] - The upcoming Senate elections are critical, as the ruling coalition faces challenges that may force a shift towards more expansive fiscal policies [4][9] Group 3 - Analysts predict that Japan's long-term bond yields will remain elevated due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and potential fiscal expansion post-elections [6][8] - The Japanese government is likely to prioritize economic stability over strict fiscal discipline, potentially leading to increased debt levels [8][9] - There are concerns about Japan facing a recession, with recent economic indicators showing a deterioration in economic conditions [7][8]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen may weaken further if Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition loses its majority in the upcoming Senate elections, with currency strategists preparing for this scenario [1][2] - Polls indicate that the ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may not secure enough seats to maintain a majority, leading to increased government spending commitments [1][3] - The yield on Japanese government bonds has risen to multi-year highs due to fiscal concerns, while election anxiety has pressured the yen, which recently fell to its lowest level since April [1][2] Group 2 - If the ruling coalition loses a significant number of seats, the yen could depreciate to 155 yen per dollar, a level not seen since February [2][3] - Analysts suggest that the rapid depreciation of the yen may lead to a loss of confidence in the currency and interest rates, with the 150 yen per dollar level acting more as a speed bump than a resistance level [3] - The outcome of the elections and subsequent trade negotiations with the U.S. will significantly influence the yen's future, with potential for appreciation if the ruling coalition performs better than expected [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3500 points before retreating, indicating a generally stable market trend [1] - The VIX index calculated from the SSE 50 and CSI 300 ETF options has not shown a significant upward spike, suggesting a lower risk of sharp market fluctuations in the future [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive at 0.10% year-on-year, with a core CPI of 0.70%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.10% month-on-month [3] - The rise in CPI is attributed to seasonal weather effects, with vegetable prices increasing and a notable recovery in international oil prices impacting domestic energy prices [3] - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with beef prices rising by 2.7% after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell by 8.5% [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - Due to ongoing pressures on CPI and PPI from consumer confidence and international trade risks, there is potential for a 10 basis point interest rate cut by the central bank in Q4, lowering the 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.3% [4] - This could create more space in the bond market, with investors advised to focus on government bond ETFs [4] Group 4: International Economic Developments - The recent signing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. has expanded the deficit, with implications for various sectors, including traditional energy, manufacturing, and real estate, which may benefit from tax advantages [4] - The impact on A-shares remains unclear, but potential fiscal expansion in the U.S. could enhance demand for Chinese exports, particularly capital goods and equipment [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a pullback after briefly surpassing the 3500-point mark, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.13% at 3493.05 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.51 trillion, an increase of 51.2 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market showed mixed performance across sectors, with innovative drugs, pharmaceuticals, gaming, film, and coal leading gains, while gold stocks, non-ferrous metals, and chips lagged [1] Economic Indicators - In June, China's CPI turned positive at 0.10% year-on-year, with core CPI at 0.70%, influenced by seasonal weather and rising oil prices [3] - The decline in food prices was noted at 0.3% year-on-year, with beef prices increasing by 2.7% after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell by 8.5% [3] - Domestic consumption policies have supported prices in the automotive and home appliance sectors [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - Due to ongoing consumer confidence issues and international trade risks, China's CPI and PPI face significant pressure, with potential for a 10 basis point rate cut by the central bank in Q4 [4] - This could open up more space in the bond market, with investors advised to focus on government bond ETFs [4] International Developments - The "Big Beautiful" Act signed by Trump on July 4th expands the U.S. fiscal deficit, potentially supporting U.S. economic growth and impacting various sectors differently [5] - Traditional energy, manufacturing, real estate, military, and agriculture sectors may benefit from tax advantages, while clean energy and healthcare may face reduced incentives [5] Copper Market Dynamics - The new 50% tariff on copper imports to the U.S. announced by Trump has led to significant fluctuations in copper prices, with U.S. copper prices rising sharply [6][10] - The current trading environment for copper is characterized by a contango structure in COMEX and a backwardation structure in LME, influenced by inventory levels and tariff expectations [10] - The anticipated tariff may reduce demand for U.S. copper, as significant stockpiling has already occurred, potentially leading to a decline in price differentials [10] Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in the 60 ETF (159881) and mining ETF (561330) as potential low-entry points in the current market environment [10]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 短期关税风险影响减少，市场风险偏好回升。中长期看美国财政扩张既成事实， 多国财政继续扩大，多国央行继续购买黄金，中长期货币宽松、不确定性仍然 | | | | 较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【765-785】 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 双宽松政策对白银需求有支撑。白银盘面 8700 附近支撑较强，受基本金属和黄 | | | | 金价格情绪影响较大，高位区间思路操作，做好仓位控制。【8800-9075】 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 特朗普称即将对铜进口加征 50%关税，美铜爆拉 10%创历史新高，建议铜多单继续 | | | | 持有，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间【79000，83000】 | | 锌 | 震荡 | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，基本面锌精矿加工费修复，国内锌库存小幅 累库，国内消费淡季，锌窄幅震荡，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。 | | | | 沪锌关注区间【21800，22500】 | | 铅 | 反弹承压 | 原生铅冶炼厂检修后 ...

Group 1: New Zealand and Australia Economic Outlook - Westpac Bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep the official cash rate unchanged in July, adopting a wait-and-see approach for future rate adjustments [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may allow the market to interpret potential rate changes and will decide based on economic data released before the August monetary policy statement [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand might indicate that economic activity in Q1 2025 could exceed expectations, although subsequent indicators show a slowdown in economic momentum [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia did not cut rates in July as widely anticipated, but future rate cuts remain a possibility, contingent on upcoming inflation data [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that inflation risks have become more balanced, suggesting that while there is no immediate pressure to cut rates, it may be delayed rather than canceled [2] Group 2: Japan's Economic Challenges - Mizuho Securities analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan should maintain its current policy amid external uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs [3] - The potential for a 25% tariff on Japanese imports by the U.S. starting August 1 adds uncertainty and could negatively impact Japan's exports and overall economic performance [3] - Mitsubishi UFJ Securities economists believe that U.S. tariffs will challenge Japan's economy, especially in exports and capital investment, prompting the government to consider broader economic stimulus measures [3] - Japan's central bank plans to slow the pace of its bond purchase reduction starting April 2026, considering market stability and participant feedback [3] Group 3: Singapore's Economic Performance - DBS Group economists indicate that Singapore's economy may avoid technical recession in Q2 2025 due to early shipments by export companies, which temporarily supported actual export growth [4] - While short-term export data appears strong due to early deliveries, long-term challenges loom for Singapore's export sectors, particularly electronics and biopharmaceutical manufacturing, due to potential U.S. tariff measures [4]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 大限将至贸易谈判仍有较多问题存在。另外市场关于美国财政法案讨论较多， | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 但是已经落地，财政扩张既成事实，中长期货币宽松、不确定性仍然较多，长 | | | | 期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【765-790】 | | | | 美国财政大扩张，部分国家数据积极，白银需求有支撑。白银盘面 8700 附近支 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 撑较强，品种特性弹性较大，受基本金属和黄金价格情绪影响较大，高位区间 | | | | 思路操作，做好仓位控制。【8800-9075】 | | | | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，基本面对铜支撑有力，铜测试下方缺口上沿支撑， | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 建议前期铜多单继续持有，部分可逢高止盈兑现，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜 | | | | 关注区间【78500，80500】 | | | | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，基本面锌精矿加工费修复，国内锌库存小幅 | | 锌 | 震荡 | 累库，国内消费淡季，锌承压回落，长期看，锌供 ...