Core Viewpoint - The bond market in China has entered a bull market in 2024, driven by weak economic conditions, moderate monetary policy easing, and reduced bank funding costs, leading to declining interest rates and narrowing credit spreads [1][2][8]. Bond Market Performance Interest Rate Bonds - Since the beginning of 2024, the bond market has shown a bull market trend, with the 1-year government bond yield dropping to a low of 0.9307% on December 23, 2024, the lowest since June 3, 2009 [2][4]. - The 10-year government bond yield reached a historical low of 1.5958% on February 7, 2025, indicating a low interest rate environment [2][4]. Credit Bonds - The scale of credit bond defaults has continued to decline in 2024, with a notable decrease in the proportion of defaults from real estate companies and AAA-rated bonds [5][6]. - The number of defaulting companies decreased from 37 in 2021 to 23 in 2024, and the default scale dropped from 1,076 billion to 241 billion [6]. Factors Driving Bond Yield Decline - Economic slowdown is evident, with the manufacturing PMI below 50 for nine months, indicating weak production [8][9]. - Monetary policy has become more accommodative, with two interest rate cuts totaling 30 basis points and two reserve requirement ratio cuts of 1 percentage point in 2024 [8][9]. - The cost of bank liabilities has decreased due to various policy measures, increasing demand for bond investments [8][9]. - Institutional demand for bonds has surged amid a weak stock market and ample liquidity, leading to significant bond purchases [9][10]. Outlook for the Bond Market Interest Rate Bonds - The bond market may experience increased volatility due to ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and potential government policies aimed at stabilizing growth [11][12]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds is expected to increase, with a total of 11.86 trillion yuan in new government debt planned for 2025 [11][12]. Credit Bonds - The default rate for credit bonds is expected to remain low, particularly in the real estate sector, due to improved sales and financing conditions [20][21]. - Credit spreads are likely to narrow, but the potential for further compression is limited due to already low levels [22]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors should closely monitor the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit rates as they significantly influence the 10-year government bond yields [24][25]. - A strategy to go long on short-term bonds is recommended, as the yield curve is expected to steepen [26]. - Identifying structural opportunities in credit spreads is crucial, focusing on liquidity risk management and sector rotation [27]. - Enhancing trading capabilities and utilizing derivatives for hedging, along with diversifying into fixed-income-like assets, can optimize portfolio performance [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Interest rate adjustment led to significant widening of credit spreads, with second - tier and perpetual (Two - Yong) bonds rising more than ordinary credit bonds. Credit bonds were sold off, and spreads of all maturities widened significantly. [2][5] - Urban investment bond spreads increased by 6 - 7BP overall. [2][9] - Industrial bond spreads rose slightly less than urban investment bonds, and the spreads of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds increased synchronously. [2][18] - Two - Yong bond spreads increased more than ordinary credit bonds, and medium - and long - term varieties were sold off on a large scale. [2][28] - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remained flat, while those of urban investment perpetual bonds increased. [2][32] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest rate adjustment led to credit bond sell - off and significant widening of spreads across all maturities - Interest rate bonds recovered after a significant adjustment, with short - duration performing slightly better. The yield of 1Y China Development Bank bonds remained the same as last week, while the yields of 3Y and 5Y increased by 2BP, 7Y by 5BP, and 10Y Treasury bonds by 1BP. [2][5] - Credit bonds were sold off, and yields rose significantly, with medium - and long - end rising more. The yield of 1Y AA+ and above credit bonds rose 5 - 6BP, others 7BP; 3Y AA and above 7BP, AA - 5BP; 5Y AAA 10BP, others 7 - 10BP; 7Y all grades 9 - 10BP; 10Y all grades 10 - 11BP. [2][5] - Credit spreads of all maturities widened significantly. 1Y all grades 6 - 8BP, 3Y AA and above 5BP, AA - 3BP; 5Y AAA 7BP, others 4 - 5BP; 7Y all grades 5 - 6BP; 10Y all grades 9 - 10BP. [2][5] 3.2 Urban investment bond spreads increased by 6 - 7BP overall - External ratings: AAA, AA+, and AA platform spreads increased by 6BP, 7BP, and 6BP respectively compared to last week. [9] - Provincial, municipal, and county - level platform spreads all increased by 6BP. [15] 3.3 Industrial bond spreads rose slightly less than urban investment bonds, and the spreads of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds increased synchronously - Central and state - owned real - estate bond spreads increased by 4 - 5BP, mixed - ownership 14BP, and private real - estate 16BP. [18] - Coal bond spreads of all grades increased by 5BP; AAA steel 5BP, AA+ 3BP; chemical bonds of all grades 5BP. [18] 3.4 Two - Yong bond spreads increased more than ordinary credit bonds, and medium - and long - term varieties were sold off on a large scale - 1Y Two - Yong bond yields of all grades increased by 5 - 6BP, second - tier bond spreads 6BP, and perpetual bond yields 7BP. [29] - 3Y AAA second - tier bond yields increased by 12BP, spreads 10BP; other grades 10BP, spreads 7BP; perpetual bonds of all grades 12 - 13BP, spreads 10 - 11BP. [29] - 5Y second - tier capital bond yields of all grades increased by 16 - 18BP, spreads 14 - 16BP; perpetual bonds of all grades 12 - 14BP, spreads 10 - 12BP. [29] 3.5 The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remained flat, while those of urban investment perpetual bonds increased - Industrial AAA3Y and AAA5Y perpetual bond excess spreads remained the same as last week at 14.52BP and 12.40BP, at the 36.98% and 25.46% quantiles since 2015 respectively. [32] - Urban investment AAA3Y perpetual bond excess spreads increased by 0.95BP to 7.58BP, at the 11.08% quantile; AAA5Y increased by 1.45BP to 8.96BP, at the 7.63% quantile. [32] 3.6 Credit spread database compilation instructions - Market credit spreads, Two - Yong spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond spreads are based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and perpetual bonds data, with historical quantiles since early 2015. [38] - Industrial and urban investment individual bond spreads are calculated by subtracting the yield of the same - maturity China Development Bank bonds from the individual bond valuation, and then averaging. [38] - Excess spreads of bank second - tier capital bonds/perpetual bonds and industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds are calculated by subtracting the spreads of the same - grade and same - maturity ordinary bonds. [38] - Industrial and urban investment bonds select medium - term notes and public corporate bonds, excluding guaranteed and perpetual bonds. [38] - Bonds with a remaining maturity of less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years are excluded from the sample. [38] - Industrial and urban investment bonds use external subject ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit bond ratings. [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - From September 22 to September 26, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and the overall credit spreads of various industries rose [1] - The total trading volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, with commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes ranking among the top three in trading volume [4] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance Statistics - 501 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 584.503 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.79% [1][11] - Industrial bonds: 200 were issued, with an issuance scale of 264.684 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 30.71%, accounting for 45.28% of the total issuance scale of credit bonds this week [1][11] - Urban investment bonds: 253 were issued, with an issuance scale of 159.939 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.21%, accounting for 27.36% of the total issuance scale of credit bonds this week [1][11] - Financial bonds: 48 were issued, with an issuance scale of 159.880 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 32.29%, accounting for 27.35% of the total issuance scale of credit bonds this week [1][11] - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.71 years, with industrial bonds at 2.22 years, urban investment bonds at 3.31 years, and financial bonds at 1.88 years [1][14] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.33%, with industrial bonds at 2.19%, urban investment bonds at 2.53%, and financial bonds at 1.91% [2][19] 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - 13 credit bonds cancelled their issuance this week [22] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - The overall industry credit spreads rose this week. Among Shenwan primary industries, the largest increase in AAA - rated industry credit spreads was in machinery and equipment (9BP), and the largest decrease was in media (3.1BP); the largest increase in AA + - rated industry credit spreads was in steel (44.2BP), and the largest decrease was in chemicals (1BP); the largest increase in AA - rated industry credit spreads was in electronics (7.9BP), and the largest decrease was in machinery and equipment (3.2BP) [3][24] - The credit spreads of coal and steel both increased. The credit spreads of AAA - and AA + - rated coal increased by 6.2BP and 6.3BP respectively; the credit spreads of AAA - and AA + - rated steel increased by 4.9BP and 44.2BP respectively [24] - The credit spreads of urban investment and non - urban investment at all levels increased. The credit spreads of three - level urban investment bonds increased by 7.2BP, 6.7BP, and 7.5BP respectively; the credit spreads of three - level non - urban investment bonds increased by 6.4BP, 6.1BP, and 5.9BP respectively [24] - The credit spreads of state - owned enterprises and private enterprises both increased. The credit spreads of three - level central state - owned enterprises increased by 5.6BP, 4.4BP, and 7.1BP respectively; the credit spreads of three - level local state - owned enterprises increased by 6BP, 6.1BP, and 6.5BP respectively; the credit spreads of three - level private enterprises increased by 5.3BP, 5.7BP, and 3.8BP respectively [26] - The credit spreads of regional urban investment bonds showed mixed trends. The regions with the highest AAA - rated credit spreads were Shaanxi, Liaoning, and Jilin; the regions with the highest AA + - rated credit spreads were Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu; the regions with the highest AA - rated credit spreads were Shaanxi, Yunnan, and Sichuan. In terms of month - on - month changes, the largest increase in AAA - rated credit spreads was in Jilin (15.6BP); the largest increase in AA + - rated credit spreads was in Hebei (10.2BP), and the largest decrease was in Ningxia (2.6BP); the largest increase in AA - rated credit spreads was in Sichuan (11.8BP), and the largest decrease was in Shaanxi (0.1BP) [27] 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1.617515 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 10.61%. The top three in trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Specifically, the trading volume of commercial bank bonds was 487.807 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.68%, accounting for 30.16% of the total trading volume of credit bonds this week; the trading volume of corporate bonds was 496.120 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 14.83%, accounting for 30.67% of the total trading volume of credit bonds this week; the trading volume of medium - term notes was 32.3965 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4.08%, accounting for 20.03% of the total trading volume of credit bonds this week [4][28] 2.3 This Week's Actively Traded Bonds - The top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week are provided for investors' reference [30]

Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - In the first three quarters of 2025, the bond market yield showed an "N"-shaped trend. Credit bond yields fluctuated similarly to government bond yields, with overall wide - range volatile upward movement. Credit spreads first narrowed and then widened slightly. Default risk continued to decline, with default entities concentrated in real - estate bonds, mainly private enterprises. The amount of credit bonds with a downgraded implied rating in the ChinaBond market increased year - on - year, while the amount of upgraded ones was lower than the same period last year [9][37][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Valuation Curve: Yields Fluctuated Widely and Rose - As of September 23, 2025, the yields of 1 - year Treasury bonds, 10 - year Treasury bonds, and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds changed by 30BP, 20BP, and 30BP respectively. The yields of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA +, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - changed by 22BP, 13BP, 8BP, and - 25BP respectively. The credit spreads of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA +, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - narrowed by 11BP, 21BP, 26BP, and 59BP respectively. Overall, the yields of medium - short - term and long - term interest - rate bonds and most credit bonds increased, and the credit spreads of various varieties narrowed, with lower - grade and shorter - term credit spreads narrowing more. The 10 - 1 curve flattened [10]. Treasury Bond Yields Presented an "N"-shaped Trend - **January - mid - March**: At the beginning of the year, the central bank suspended Treasury bond trading and reduced open - market investment to stabilize the exchange rate. The tightened capital led to an upward trend in bond market yields. After the Two Sessions, the market adjusted its expectations, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield reached a high of 1.90% [11][12]. - **Late March - April**: The capital became looser, and the Sino - US tariff "tug - of - war" began. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped to the 1.63% - 1.67% range [16]. - **May - early July**: In early May, the central bank's RRR cut and interest rate cut, along with positive results from tariff negotiations, led to a slight increase in long - end interest - rate bond yields. In June, the central bank's reverse - repurchase operations improved the capital situation, and bond yields fluctuated downward [16]. - **Mid - July - September**: The "anti - involution" policy raised inflation expectations, the equity market strengthened, and the bond market was suppressed. Bond yields rose, but short - end yields were stable, resulting in a "bear steep" pattern [16]. Credit Spreads - Credit Spreads of All Grades First Narrowed and Then Widened - **January - mid - March**: At the beginning of January, interest - rate bonds quickly adjusted upward, and credit spreads were passively narrowed. Before the Two Sessions, the market expected an RRR cut and interest rate cut, and credit spreads widened briefly. After the Two Sessions, credit spreads narrowed rapidly again [17]. - **Late March - April**: The bond market recovered quickly, and credit spreads widened slightly [17]. - **May**: Credit spreads narrowed to the lowest point of the year due to the implementation of monetary policy tools and looser capital [17]. - **June - early July**: Short - end Treasury bond yields declined, and credit spreads first widened slightly and then narrowed [17]. - **Mid - July - September**: The bond market adjusted, and credit spreads widened slightly [17]. The Risk of Downgraded Implied Rating in the ChinaBond Market Increased - In the first three quarters of 2025, the amount of credit bonds with a downgraded implied rating in the ChinaBond market was 764.1 billion, a significant year - on - year increase. The amount of upgraded credit bonds was 358 billion, significantly lower than the same period last year. The proportion of urban investment bonds in the upgraded and downgraded samples decreased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [21]. Default: Default Risk Decreased, and the Default Rate of Real - Estate Bonds Declined - In the first three quarters of 2025, there were 3 new first - time default issuers. According to the broad default definition, the default amount was 6 billion, and the default rate was 0.01%, with the annualized default rate decreasing significantly compared to previous years. Default entities were mainly concentrated in real - estate bonds, mostly private enterprises. The real - estate bond default rate was 0.2%, and the default scale and annualized default rate decreased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The private enterprise default rate was 0.5%, and the annualized default rate continued to decline quarter - on - quarter [24][31]. Recovery Rate Remained Low - In the first three quarters of 2025, defaulted bonds recovered 20.76 billion in principal. From 2014 to the present, defaulted bonds have repaid 124.7 billion in principal, and the repayment rate of overdue principal was 11.9% [34].

Economic Overview - In August, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.7% in July, but still above 5%[5] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 5.7%, outpacing overall industrial growth by 0.5 percentage points, with 31 out of 41 industrial categories showing year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 75.6%[5] - High-tech manufacturing saw a significant expansion, with added value increasing by 9.3% year-on-year, indicating strong momentum in emerging industries[5] Investment Trends - From January to August, fixed asset investment grew by only 0.5% year-on-year, a decline from 1.6% in the previous period, with real estate being a major drag[5] - Manufacturing investment rose by 5.1%, significantly higher than the overall investment growth, with notable increases in consumer goods manufacturing (9.0%) and aerospace manufacturing (28.0%)[5] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9% year-on-year, with August alone seeing a 19.5% decline, marking the largest monthly drop of the year[6] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year in August, with significant growth in home appliances (14.3%) and furniture (18.6%) despite a slight overall slowdown[6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached over 50%, with August retail sales showing a positive shift to +0.8% from -1.5% in July[6] Market Outlook - The economic recovery momentum is expected to continue, with GDP growth projected to meet the target of around 5% for the year, despite a forecasted slowdown in Q3 compared to Q2[6] - A-shares typically exhibit a "pre-holiday contraction, post-holiday surge" pattern, with over 60% probability of index gains following the National Day holiday[7] Fixed Income Strategy - The bond market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with short-term credit spreads narrowing while long-term spreads are widening, indicating a mixed market sentiment[7] - The average duration of bank TPL (Total Portfolio Loss) is estimated at 3 years, with projected floating losses of approximately 453 billion yuan for Q3 due to rising long-term bond yields[9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Central Settlement Company and the National Inter - bank Funding Center will launch a centralized bond lending business on October 10, 2025, which can improve market efficiency, risk prevention, and standardization, but also faces challenges such as strict collateral requirements and short - term limits [4][11][12] - The listing of the first convertible bond on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) marks the official opening of the BSE convertible bond market. Although it is in its infancy with some characteristics like non - public transfer and strict terms, it has potential for future optimization [5][15][17] - In August 2025, the overall economic data declined, with fixed - asset investment, social consumption, and industrial added - value growth rates dropping. CPI turned negative year - on - year, while the decline of PPI narrowed [6][18][20] - Last week, the central bank net - injected funds through open - market operations. Due to factors like treasury bond issuance and tax payments, capital prices rose, and the spread between 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor slightly expanded [7][23] - Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased. Different industries and bond types showed different trends in issuance and net financing, and the average issuance cost of credit bonds fluctuated [8][28][31] - In the secondary market of credit bonds last week, trading activity increased, yields of both interest - rate and credit bonds rose, most credit spreads expanded, and rating spreads changed little [37][38][43] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market Hotspots - **Centralized Bond Lending Business Policy** - On September 12, 2025, relevant institutions will launch a centralized bond lending business on October 10, 2025, which is an important supplement to the existing bond lending business [11] - It can improve market efficiency, help market participants prevent risks, and enhance standardization, but also faces challenges from strict collateral requirements and short - term limits [12][13] - **BSE Convertible Bond Market** - On September 9, 2025, the first convertible bond "Youji Dingzhuan" was listed, marking the official opening of the BSE convertible bond market [5][13][15] - The current BSE convertible bond market is in its early stage, featuring non - public transfer, strict terms, and a concentrated investor structure. It is recommended to explore public issuance and innovative clause design [15][16][17] Macroeconomic Data - In August 2025, fixed - asset investment, social consumption, and industrial added - value growth rates declined. CPI turned negative year - on - year, and the decline of PPI narrowed [6][18][20] Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - injected 196.1 billion yuan through open - market operations. Capital prices rose due to factors like treasury bond issuance and tax payments, and the spread between 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor slightly expanded [7][23] Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased to 216.271 billion yuan. Different bond types and industries had different performance in issuance and net financing, and the average issuance cost fluctuated [8][28][31] Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market trading volume of bonds was 876.9869 billion yuan, with increased trading activity. Yields of both interest - rate and credit bonds rose, most credit spreads expanded, and rating spreads changed little [37][38][43]

Group 1 - The financial markets are experiencing unprecedented excitement, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new historical highs, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the booming AI sector [1][5] - The AI sector is seeing a significant increase in capital expenditures, with leading companies in the field increasing their spending by three to four times, primarily for GPU procurement and data center construction, which is straining short-term cash flows [4][9] - The current market sentiment is characterized by a "buy the trend" mentality, where emotions often drive decisions faster than data [2][8] Group 2 - Credit spreads have narrowed to near 30-year lows, indicating a lack of risk premium in the market, with some corporate borrowing costs even lower than government bonds, raising concerns about the underlying risk appetite [4][6] - The market is facing a combination of high geopolitical risks, slowing employment data, and persistent inflation, which may not be adequately reflected in current valuations [6][9] - Defensive positions are emerging, with some investors adjusting their strategies to be more cautious, as evidenced by increased short positions in small-cap ETFs and inflows into safe-haven assets like gold and cash [6][9] Group 3 - The narrative surrounding the market is heavily influenced by the story of AI and declining interest rates, which is driving valuations higher, but there are underlying tensions due to fundamental cracks and policy uncertainties [8][9] - If employment data continues to weaken or corporate earnings fail to meet expectations, a rapid reversal in capital flows could occur, leading to increased market volatility [11] - The current environment presents a dilemma for investors: whether to follow the upward trend or seek safer positions amidst rising valuations and potential risks [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on export-oriented consumer companies with global manufacturing layouts, brand output capabilities, and channel integration advantages in the current changing external environment and policy dynamics [3]. Macro Summary - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [3]. - In August, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. The core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [3]. Cost Tracking - The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan slightly depreciated, while the euro appreciated against the yuan [4]. - The shipping costs for various routes, including Europe, the U.S. East Coast, the U.S. West Coast, and Southeast Asia, have decreased year-on-year [4]. - The comprehensive index of the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1125.30, down 38.11% year-on-year and 2.07% month-on-month [4]. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The U.S. restaurant industry saw a decrease in the Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) to 99.7 in July, down 0.3% from June [5]. - The U.S. housing market index in September was 32, down 21.95% year-on-year, with existing home inventory increasing by 15.67% year-on-year [5]. - U.S. wholesale sales increased by 1.4% month-on-month in July, while retail sales rose by 0.6% in August [5]. - The export volume of golf carts from China decreased by 5.85% month-on-month and 72.12% year-on-year in July [5]. - Motorcycle exports from China saw a month-on-month decline of 3.17% but a year-on-year increase of 24.42% in August [5]. Recent Activities - The article mentions various upcoming industry events and reports, including discussions on transportation, new energy, electronics, coal, agriculture, and home appliances [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the bond market was relatively stable, with interest rates first declining and then rising. Market sentiment improved in the first half of the week as the market speculated on the central bank restarting treasury bond trading, leading to a decline in interest rates and credit bond yields. In the second half of the week, influenced by factors such as China - US negotiations, there was a slight upward movement. Credit spreads fluctuated slightly overall, with long - term credit spreads rising [2]. - Since the market adjustment began in July, institutional behavior has changed. Large banks have shifted from net selling to net buying of interest - rate bonds, mainly focusing on varieties with a maturity of less than 5 years. Funds and securities firms have sold more long - term interest - rate bonds, with relatively scattered buyers. For credit bonds, the net buying of wealth management products, insurance, and other product categories has been relatively stable. State - owned banks' purchase of short - term interest - rate bonds also contributes to short - end stability. The trading volume of long - term credit bonds has significantly decreased recently. It is speculated that the inflection point of the continuous upward trend of long - term credit bond yields is approaching [3]. - Compared with the year - to - date low in early July, the yields of medium - and long - term credit bonds with a maturity of 4 years and above have increased significantly. Compared with the high point in March, the yields of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years have declined by more than 10bp, and the yields of ultra - long - term credit bonds are slightly higher than the year - to - date high. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, there is limited room for a significant reduction in credit bond spreads, but the stability of the short end is highly certain [4]. - Considering the current low funding rates, weak fundamentals, and the strong volatility - resistance ability of short - term bonds, short - term bonds with a maturity of around 2 years have good investment value. Currently, the price - ratio of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds (Two - Yong Bonds) to medium - term notes has reverted to the mean, reducing their trading value. Their future performance mainly depends on interest - rate trends. If interest rates decline, there is still room for further decline. The trading volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds has decreased significantly, and the yields of some varieties have exceeded the year - to - date high, making them suitable for allocation. However, for trading - oriented institutions, especially those with less stable liability ends, the trading opportunities in the fourth quarter are limited, and it is advisable to wait appropriately. For allocation - oriented institutions, they can gradually start allocating [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Institutional Behavior and Point Observation 3.1.1 What are the characteristics of institutional behavior? - Since July, large banks have increased their net buying of interest - rate bonds, while funds and securities firms have increased their net selling. Large banks are more inclined to buy short - term interest - rate bonds rather than long - term ones. There is a mismatch in the maturity between the purchasing willingness of large banks and the selling willingness of funds and securities firms, which will affect the market trend. For credit bonds, the overall behavior is relatively stable. The net buying of insurance, wealth management products, and other product categories is relatively stable, while the selling of securities firms, city commercial banks, and joint - stock commercial banks is also relatively stable. Large banks' selling has decreased since July. The net buying of rural commercial banks in the secondary market of credit bonds has remained at a good level, but the overall volume is limited. Since the bond market adjustment in July, funds' demand for long - term credit bonds has weakened significantly, and they have continuously sold long - term credit bonds. Insurance's net buying of long - term credit bonds has declined to a relatively low level in recent weeks [10][14][18]. 3.1.2 Credit bond point observation - Compared with the year - to - date high on March 18, the current credit bond yields are still lower. Yields of bonds with a maturity of less than 2 years are about 30bp lower, those with a maturity of 3 - 5 years are about 20bp lower, and those with a maturity of more than 5 years are only about 5bp lower. Credit spreads are significantly lower than the high point in March, with spreads of bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years being about 20bp lower. Compared with the low point on July 7, the short - end adjustment of bonds with a maturity of 2 years and below is relatively small, while the adjustment of bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years is particularly large. The weak fundamentals and relatively loose funding rates provide a stable foundation for the short end. The relatively stable purchasing power of important buyers of credit bonds, such as insurance and wealth management products, and large banks' preference for short - term interest - rate bonds also indirectly support credit bonds [22][26][30]. 3.1.3 Investment thinking and suggestions for the portfolio - From the perspectives of the funding situation, institutional behavior, and anti - decline ability, appropriate credit risk - taking in short - term credit bonds is still worthy of attention. Currently, the volume of credit bonds with a remaining maturity of less than 3 years, a valuation of more than 2.1%, and an implicit rating of AA(2) and above exceeds 1 trillion yuan. The price - ratio of Two - Yong Bonds to medium - term notes has reverted to around 0, reducing their trading value. Their future performance depends on interest - rate trends. The yields of ultra - long - term credit bonds are close to the year - to - date high, and the trading volume has dropped to a low point. They have allocation value, and allocation - oriented institutions can gradually allocate [32][34][37]. 3.2 What to buy in credit? 3.2.1 It is recommended to focus on high - grade Two - Yong Bonds - This week, the price - ratio of AAA Two - Yong Bonds to medium - term notes has declined significantly. The price - ratio of 5 - year AAA - rated Tier 2 capital bonds to 5 - year AAA medium - term notes has dropped by more than 5bp this week. The price - ratio of short - term urban investment bonds to medium - term notes has declined significantly and is close to the year - to - date low, with relatively low cost - effectiveness. The price - ratio of long - term weak - quality urban investment bonds to medium - term notes has increased recently and is currently positive [41][43]. 3.2.2 Focus on high - coupon assets with a maturity of around 2 years - Currently, the proportion of urban investment bonds with a valuation of more than 2.2% is 38.6%, that of non - financial industrial bonds is 26.1%, and that of Two - Yong Bonds is 34.7%. Bonds with a maturity of around 2 years and a valuation of more than 2.2% have good value. For urban investment bonds, it is recommended to focus on bonds with a maturity of around 2 years issued by entities such as Xi'an High - tech Holdings Co., Ltd., Henan Airport Group Investment Co., Ltd., and Zhuhai Huafa Group Co., Ltd. For industrial bonds, it is recommended to focus on 2 - year bonds of important local state - owned real - estate enterprises and 2 - year or less bonds of non - real - estate industrial entities [45][47][49]. 3.3 Market Review: Yields Fluctuated 3.3.1 How was the market performance? - This week, credit bond yields fluctuated, with long - term yields generally rising and some bonds with a maturity of 7 years and above adjusting by more than 3bp, while short - term Two - Yong Bonds generally declined. Credit spreads showed a divergent trend, with short - term spreads decreasing significantly, and spreads of ultra - short - term bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year generally decreasing by more than 4bp. From a daily perspective, yields fluctuated upward this week, showing a V - shaped trend. Credit spreads also showed a divergent trend, with short - term spreads decreasing on Mondays and Fridays and long - term spreads widening significantly on Tuesdays and Wednesdays [51][55][56]. 3.3.2 Insurance's allocation strength declined, and funds turned to net buying - The scale of insurance companies' credit bond allocation decreased compared with the previous week. This week, the net buying scale of insurance was 8.092 billion yuan, a 36.8% decrease from the previous week. The net buying volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years was 2.204 billion yuan, with a slight increase in the增持 strength. Funds turned to net buying. This week, funds net - bought 6.331 billion yuan of credit bonds, mainly focusing on bonds with a maturity of 1 - 5 years, with an增持 scale of 11.869 billion yuan. However, they still continued to net - sell ultra - long - term bonds, selling 2.938 billion yuan this week. The scale of wealth management products remained basically the same as last week. As of September 14, the scale of bank wealth management products was 31.07 trillion yuan. The allocation strength of wealth management products was stable, and the allocation strength of other product categories increased slightly. This week, the增持 scale of wealth management products in credit bonds was 20.32 billion yuan, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week. The net buying scale of other products was 13.386 billion yuan, a 20.7% increase from the previous week [58][60][63]. 3.3.3 Transaction proportion: The proportion of transactions within 1 year remains low - The proportion of medium - and short - term transactions (within 3 years) of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds remains relatively high, and the proportion of transactions of Two - Yong Bonds with a maturity of 3 - 5 years is still not low, indicating that general credit bonds are shortening their duration, and Two - Yong Bonds still have strong trading characteristics [67].

美联储降息后，各国利率如何分化 本报告导读： 美联储降息启动新一轮全球政策周期，利率分化与港币资金面紧张推动中长期配置 切换，关注美债、港币债及全球流动性传导格局变化，警惕流动性拐点下结构性机 会与风险并存。 投资要点： | [Table_Authors] | 王一凡(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38031722 | | | wangyifan4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524120001 | | | 唐元懋(分析师) | | | 0755-23976753 | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 市场活跃度回落，指数振幅收窄 2025.09.21 2025 年四季度的债市，还能"先弱后强"吗 2025.09.21 银行二永债周度数据库更新（2025.9.12-9.19） 2025.09.21 长端补跌，曲线继续走陡 2025.09.21 大行融出税期短暂跌破 4 万亿 2025.09.21 债 券 研 究 债券研究 /[Table_Date] ...