研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 国债期货日报 2025/5/14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.535 | -0.12% T主力成交量 | 68753 | -347↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.810 | -0.13% TF主力成交量 | 55124 | 3400↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.292 | -0.05% TS主力成交量 | 35705 | 13912↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 118.930 | -0.23% TL主力成交量 | 78310 | -603↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2509-2506价差 | 0.34 | -0.11↓ T06-TL06价差 | -10.40 | 0.19↑ | | | T2509-2506价差 | 0.16 0.27 | -0.02↓ TF06-T06价差 | -2.72 -6.24 | 0.04↑ ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a strong start after the "May Day" holiday, with major indices mostly rising, including a 1.92% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index to 3342 points, and a 3.62% rise in the North Star 50 Index [1] - The market saw a jump at the beginning of the week due to easing news related to tariffs and a series of monetary easing policies released by the central bank [1][2] - On Friday, A-shares declined again, with trading volume shrinking, despite better-than-expected April import and export data [2] Economic Indicators - China's April export value increased by 8.1% year-on-year in USD terms, surpassing the expected 0.5% but lower than March's 12.4% [2] - April imports decreased by 0.2%, which was better than the expected decline of 6.0% and less severe than March's 4.3% drop [2] Sector Performance - Aerospace and military stocks emerged as star sectors during the week, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in South Asia [2] - The market's reaction to the central bank's easing policies was initially positive, but investor sentiment remained cautious due to a lack of anticipated fiscal stimulus [1] Future Outlook - The upcoming discussions between Chinese and U.S. officials regarding tariffs are expected to be a key factor influencing market trends [2] - Even if the talks do not yield significant progress, there is an expectation that arrangements for future discussions will be made, which may sustain market optimism [3]

5 月 7 日国新办召开新闻发布会，央行行长宣布三大类一共 10 项金融支持政策，货 币宽松明显发力支持"稳增长、稳预期"，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息降 准等仍有空间。 投资要点： 风险提示：经济、政策的不确定性仍存 登记编号 S0880525040060 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.07 2025-05-09 货币宽松"再发力" [Table_Authors] 应镓娴(分析师) ——5 月 7 日央行一揽子货币政策点评 本报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 专 题 021-38676666 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 [Table_Summary] 降准降息落地，在关键时点释放出"适度宽松"来"稳增长、稳市 场"的明确信号，体现了央行前瞻部署、主动作为。一揽子三大类 10 项货币政策组合，体现了货币政策总量与结构协同发力，对实体 和资本市场的全面支持。在外部关税冲击、内需还待提振的背景下， 央行宽松周期预计将延续，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息 降准等仍有空 ...

Overview of A-shares 2024 Annual Report and 2025 Q1 - The overall performance of A-shares in 2024 did not improve, while the performance in 2025 Q1 showed significant improvement, although revenue recovery was slow [9][10] - The cumulative net profit growth rate for all A-shares/non-financial in 2024 was -2.3%/-12.9%, a decline from 2024 Q3 [10] - In 2025 Q1, the cumulative net profit growth rate for all A-shares/non-financial was 3.6%/4.2%, a substantial increase of 5.8/17.1 percentage points compared to the 2024 annual report [10][12] Revenue and Performance Growth Overview - The cumulative revenue growth rate for all A-shares/non-financial in 2024 was -0.9%/-1.0%, showing slight improvement from 2024 Q3 [10] - In 2025 Q1, the cumulative revenue growth rate for all A-shares/non-financial was -0.7%/-0.7%, indicating a minor recovery compared to the 2024 annual report [10][12] Profitability Analysis - The return on equity (ROE) for all A non-financial in 2025 Q1 was 6.68%, slightly down from 6.70% in 2024 Q4, indicating a continued bottoming process [14] - The net profit margin showed a low recovery, while asset turnover and debt ratio continued to decline, reflecting a fragile recovery trend [14][20] Industry Performance Overview - Profitability is shifting towards midstream and technology sectors, with a decline in profit share from financial and upstream sectors [28] - The recovery in consumer profitability is mainly driven by the agricultural and forestry sectors, while midstream manufacturing and technology sectors are showing significant recovery trends [28] Contribution to Profitability - The improvement in profitability is attributed to the "two new" policies and base effect, with significant contributions from electronics, home appliances, and machinery sectors [35] - The real estate sector showed a notable reduction in losses, contributing positively to the overall performance in 2025 Q1 [35][38] Sector Focus - The technology manufacturing sector is highlighted for its revenue growth indicators, with a focus on penetration rates [24] - Key sectors with positive revenue growth in 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q1 include computers, electronics, machinery, automobiles, and communications [24][28] Future Outlook - The performance growth rhythm for all A non-financial in 2025 is expected to present a "V" shape, with a potential cumulative profit growth rate of -2.3% under neutral assumptions [22][24] - The government’s commitment to GDP targets and sufficient counter-cyclical policy reserves are expected to support a recovery in profitability [22][24]

·概 要 · 5月7日国新办召开新闻发布会，央行行长宣布三大类一共10项金融支持政策，货币宽松明显 发力支持"稳增长、稳预期"，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 降准降息落地，在关键时点释放出"适度宽松"来"稳增长、稳市场"的明确信号，体现了央行前 瞻部署、主动作为。一揽子三大类10项货币政策组合，体现了货币政策总量与结构协同发 力，对实体和资本市场的全面支持。在外部关税冲击、内需还待提振的背景下，央行宽松周期 预计将延续，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 财政或继续加快债券发行节奏，尤其是增加对消费领域支持力度，如有必要，下半年或继续增 加全年财政额度；房地产政策也有望进一步放松。另外，出口方面的针对性支持政策也在加 码。 短期来看，关税摩擦对市场预期的影响相比于前期可能已在减弱，预期冲击最大的时候可能已 经过去。不过从对经济的影响来看，实际冲击可能从4月数据开始逐步显现，再加上当前内需 还要进一步巩固的背景下，更需关注接下来国内经济基本面变化：一是4月出口可能还有前期 抢出口的支撑，但5、6月份数据可能会明显体现关税的冲击；二是地产的止跌企稳可能还需 要更多政策支持，三 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cloud computing and internet giants, highlighting strong performance and growth potential in the sector [2][5]. Core Insights - Microsoft Azure's revenue growth exceeded expectations, with a year-over-year increase of 35%, driven by both AI and non-AI business segments [2][6][28]. - Meta has raised its capital expenditure (Capex) guidance for 2025 from $60-65 billion to $64-72 billion, reflecting confidence in AI's impact on advertising revenue [3][31]. - Google Cloud's revenue growth was stable at 28.1%, with expectations for continued performance due to strong demand and AI integration [2][36]. Summary by Sections Cloud Performance - Microsoft Azure reported a revenue of $26.8 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 35%, driven by AI contributing 16 percentage points and non-AI business contributing 19 percentage points [2][6][28]. - Google Cloud's revenue reached $12.26 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 28.1%, with expectations for stable growth throughout the year [2][36]. - Amazon AWS generated $29.27 billion in revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 16.9% and an operating margin of 39.5% [2][8]. Capital Expenditure - Meta's Capex guidance for 2025 was increased to $64-72 billion, emphasizing the role of AI in enhancing advertising efficiency [3][31]. - Google maintained its Capex guidance for 2025 at $75 billion, indicating a strong commitment to infrastructure investment [3][14]. - Microsoft expects its Capex for FY25 to exceed $85 billion, reflecting ongoing investments in cloud infrastructure [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that trade tensions have begun to impact advertising spending, particularly from Asia-Pacific retailers towards North America, leading to a cautious outlook for future ad revenues [4][24]. - Despite these challenges, the software sector has shown resilience, with the IGV ETF rising 29.7% since April 7, 2025, outperforming the Nasdaq index [25][24]. - Meta's advertising business showed a year-over-year increase in ad impressions by 5% and ad pricing by 10%, indicating a robust performance despite macroeconomic uncertainties [31][32].

Macro News - The EU plans to impose tariffs on $1 trillion worth of US goods if negotiations fail [2] - The UK and India have reached a free trade agreement, with India reducing tariffs on 90% of UK imports, 85% of which will achieve zero tariffs within ten years [2] - The UK and US are expected to finalize a trade agreement this week aimed at reducing tariffs on automobiles and steel [2] - US Treasury Secretary opposes the issuance of a digital currency by the Federal Reserve [2] Institutional Views - Galaxy Futures indicates that the thawing of US-China trade relations may lead to silver prices fluctuating at high levels [3] - The market's risk aversion is expected to decrease due to the confirmation of US-China diplomatic engagement, although challenges in negotiations remain [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is highlighted as a key event to watch for potential clues on future interest rate cuts [3]

新华财经北京5月6日电在周一（5月5日）大幅拉涨约100美元之后，周二（5月6日）国际金价继续惯性 冲高。截至发稿时，伦敦现货黄金一度突破3380美元／盎司关口，纽约COMEX黄金期货最活跃合约期 价更是一度摸高至3395美元／盎司。以下是部分机构观点： 铜冠金源期货表示，目前来看，黄金依然受到避险需求增强的支撑。密切关注本周即将公布的美联储货 币政策决议。特朗普重申不会提前解除鲍威尔的主席职务，并再次呼吁美联储应降息以刺激经济增长。 尽管市场普遍预期美联储在本次会议上将维持利率在4.25%-4.50%区间不变，但关税摩擦给美国经济前 景带来的不确定性加大，美联储的未来利率路径面临重新评估的压力。密切关注美联储经济展望与美联 储主席鲍威尔的讲话内容，以判断未来货币政策方向。 金瑞期货表示，当前市场风险偏好恢复，但是关税对经济的潜在负面影响并未解除，市场对关税缓解的 乐观预期停留在情绪层面，黄金的避险多头逻辑依然存在，叠加各国央行存在持续买入需求，因而底部 支撑较强。若后续美国经济出现实质性走弱信号，或关税政策进一步恶化，甚至关于关税的谈判细节不 及预期，均可能引发避险情绪反复，为贵金属价格提供新的上行动力。综 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a volatile consolidation pattern over three trading days, with an average daily turnover slightly exceeding 1 trillion yuan, while the Shanghai Composite Index faced a slight decline due to adjustments in bank stocks [1] - The market sentiment was dominated by uncertainties regarding tariffs, leading to a wait-and-see approach from both bulls and bears [1] - Positive signals regarding US-China tariff negotiations emerged, with the US indicating a willingness to negotiate, and China responding accordingly [1] Group 2 - The US announced a cancellation of tariff exemptions for small-value imports from China, which could have a negative impact on market sentiment [1] - The US GDP for the first quarter showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, which was worse than the expected decline of 0.1%, raising concerns about a potential recession [2] - Market expectations regarding the US economy's recession risk have increased, with a probability of approximately 57% for a recession by 2025, significantly higher than the 18% probability noted at the time of Trump's inauguration [2] Group 3 - Following the May Day holiday, A-shares are expected to continue fluctuating around tariff-related news, with uncertainty in finding a clear direction [3] - If tariff news improves, A-shares may gain some upward momentum, but the impact is likely to be limited due to the ongoing nature of tariff issues [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a watchful stance and consider adjusting their portfolio structure, with a focus on export-related stocks if tariff issues significantly ease [3]

盈利预测与估值：我们预测公司25-27 年实现营业收入272.3、299.1、308.1 亿元，同比+8.6%、+9.8%、 +3.0%；实现归母净利润30.4、33.4、36.1 亿元，同比+10.9%、+10.0%、+8.0%，对应PE 分别为10、 9、9 倍，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 风险提示：豆粕价格大幅波动；原材料成本上涨；产品价格波动等 关税摩擦背景下公司业绩有望有益于豆粕涨价预期。中国大豆严重依赖进口，其中进口自美国大豆占比 约为21%，随着中美关税摩擦升温可能导致国内大豆价格上涨进而利多豆粕价格。同时，随着国家豆粕 减量替代工作推进，豆粕价格上涨有望加速替代进程，促进氨基酸产品需求增长。并且公司大原料副产 品业务利润跟随豆粕和玉米价格，因此豆粕价格上涨有利于公司业绩释放。 持续推进分红+回购，公司兼具防御属性。2024 年度公司计划实施现金分红和回购金额合计22.7 亿元， 占年度归属于上市公司股东净利润的比例82.84%。公司持续推进回购措施，截至2025 年3 月底，公司 通过集中竞价交易方式回购股份3571 万股，占公司总股本的1.25%，支付总额为3.52 亿元。 事件：公司发布202 ...