Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: On October 16, the nickel market showed a complex situation. The nickel futures had certain price changes, and the spot market had a fair trading volume with a narrowing basis premium. The supply side had stable nickel ore prices, increased arrivals last week, and rising inventories. Nickel - iron plants had deeper losses, and production schedules in October increased both in China and Indonesia. The production schedule of domestic electrolytic nickel in October also increased, and export profits decreased. The demand side saw an increase in ternary production, an increase in stainless - steel plant production schedules, and stable alloy and electroplating demand. In terms of inventory, LME inventory increased, while SHFE inventory decreased, and social inventory increased. Overall, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is low, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - Stainless steel: On October 16, the stainless - steel futures had a range - bound movement, and the spot market trading was weak with a narrowing basis premium. The SHFE inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory increased last week. In terms of supply, the stainless - steel production schedule in October increased, but the 300 - series production schedule decreased. The demand side had weak terminal demand. The cost side saw a decline in high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices. Overall, the fundamentals are loose, inventory is piling up, and cost support is weakening, so stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Information Nickel - related Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of SHFE nickel near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on October 16 were 121,270 yuan/ton, 121,420 yuan/ton, 121,660 yuan/ton, and 121,900 yuan/ton respectively, showing an upward trend compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active SHFE nickel contract was 67,146 lots (- 16,615), and the open interest was 66,228 lots (- 2,453). The LME 3 - month nickel official price was 15,150 US dollars/ton (- 60), the electronic - disk closing price was 15,230 US dollars/ton (+ 80), and the on - site closing price was 15,267 US dollars/ton (+ 73). The trading volume was 5,500 lots (- 709) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,150 yuan/ton (- 150), the average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123,400 yuan/ton (- 100), and the average price of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) was 121,350 yuan/ton (- 100) [2]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons, the LME registered warehouse receipts were 0 tons, and the total LME nickel inventory was 250,344 tons (+ 3,588). The SMM Chinese port nickel ore total inventory was 971 (in ten thousand wet tons), the SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory was 3,100 tons, and the SMM pure nickel social inventory was 43,694 tons (+ 2,866) [2]. Stainless - steel - related Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of SHFE stainless - steel near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on October 16 were 12,585 yuan/ton, 12,615 yuan/ton, 12,700 yuan/ton, and 12,750 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of the active SHFE stainless - steel contract was 125,870 lots (+ 12,654), and the open interest was 201,245 lots (+ 7,755) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 304/2B coil - trimmed (Wuxi) was 13,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the average price of 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi) was 12,700 yuan/ton (- 50), the average price of 316L/2B coil (Wuxi) was 25,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the average price of 316L/NO.1 coil (Wuxi) was 3,750 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE stainless - steel inventory was 83,231 tons (- 776), and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 619,400 tons (+ 33,900) [2]. Industry News In Indonesia, the selling prices of domestic mining products, especially those currently prohibited from export, are still lower than the Mineral Reference Price (HPM). This situation puts mining practitioners in a dilemma, especially with limited smelter capacity in the country. The mining enterprises have weak bargaining power, and there is a mismatch between the actual transaction price and the tax - paying obligation. So far, the government has not imposed sanctions on smelters [2]. Trading Strategies - Nickel: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2]. - Stainless steel: It is recommended to short at high prices [2].

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in styrene futures prices since late September is attributed to multiple factors, including a sharp drop in oil prices and weak fundamentals in the styrene market [1][2]. Group 1: Price Decline Factors - Styrene futures prices began to decline from a high of 7831 yuan/ton in late June 2025, reaching a low of 6437 yuan/ton by October 16 [1]. - The drop in oil prices is a major factor affecting styrene prices, driven by geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and an oversupply situation as the demand season ends [1][2]. - The overall chemical product prices have also fallen due to macroeconomic disturbances and OPEC+ production increases, impacting styrene prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory Dynamics - Styrene's weak fundamentals are reflected in rising port inventories and a marginal weakening in the upstream pure benzene supply-demand balance [2]. - As of mid-October, styrene inventories at East China ports were around 200,000 tons, significantly higher than the approximately 40,000 tons from the same period last year, marking a five-year high [2]. - Despite maintenance activities reducing production slightly, the overall supply remains high, and demand has also decreased, leading to a continued oversupply situation [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Chain Analysis - The basic fundamentals of pure benzene, the direct raw material for styrene, are also weak, with expectations of declining demand due to losses in downstream products [3]. - High hidden inventories of pure benzene, concentrated in styrene plants, are expected to keep production rates high, as plants are unlikely to significantly reduce output to maintain market share [3]. - The entire industry chain, including pure benzene, styrene, and downstream synthetic materials, is experiencing historically high inventory levels, which will take time to alleviate [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term reversal of styrene prices is considered difficult, with potential for a temporary rebound due to supply constraints from geopolitical factors [4]. - For a price reversal to occur, improvements in oil prices, upstream pure benzene fundamentals, and downstream orders are necessary [5]. - The likelihood of a decrease in styrene inventory and low valuation suggests that overly bearish views may not be warranted, although new production capacity and oil price declines pose challenges [5].

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing a significant supply pressure due to continuous new capacity additions, while demand remains weak, particularly influenced by the real estate sector's downturn. The overall market outlook for PVC remains bearish, with high inventory levels and low prices persisting [1][27]. Supply Side Analysis - As of 2025, a total of 1.45 million tons of new PVC capacity has been added, with major contributions from companies like Xinpu Chemical and Wanhu Fujian. The total new capacity for the year is expected to reach 1.95 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 7% [4][5]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative PVC production reached 18.11 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.11%. The increase is primarily driven by the ethylene method, which saw a 9.78% rise [4][5]. Demand Side Analysis - The domestic demand for PVC is heavily influenced by the real estate sector, which has seen a significant decline in investment and construction activities. From January to August 2025, real estate development investment dropped by 12.9%, and new construction area decreased by 19.5% [7]. - Exports of PVC from January to August 2025 totaled 2.5752 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 55%. However, there are concerns about potential declines in exports due to rising anti-dumping measures in key markets like India [8]. Inventory Levels - As of last week, the domestic PVC social inventory reached 1.0364 million tons, an increase of 5.58% month-on-month and 23.54% year-on-year. The overall industry inventory has also risen, indicating a prolonged period of oversupply [15][16]. Price and Cost Dynamics - The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and ethylene remain low, contributing to a weak pricing environment for PVC. Despite ongoing losses in production methods, the overall profit margins in the chlor-alkali sector remain acceptable [21][22]. Technical Analysis - The PVC market has been in a downward trend since reaching historical highs in 2021. The market is currently seeking support levels after breaking below key price thresholds [24][27]. Summary - The PVC market is characterized by significant supply pressures from new capacity additions, weak domestic demand due to the real estate sector's struggles, and high inventory levels. The overall outlook remains bearish, with cautious trading strategies recommended as the market seeks stability [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The ethylene glycol market is currently facing supply and inventory pressures, lacking bullish support. In the short term, it is expected to maintain a low-level oscillation pattern, with the upside limited by high inventory and weak demand, and the downside supported by cost differences. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and coal-based plant maintenance trends [1][2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: The price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract decreased slightly from 4,061 yuan/ton on October 14th to 4,057 yuan/ton on October 15th, a decline of 0.1%. The East China spot price also weakened, and the basis narrowed from 69 yuan/ton to 63 yuan/ton, indicating a slight relief in futures discount pressure but still cautious market sentiment [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract increased by 2,469 lots to 339,900 lots, while the trading volume dropped significantly by 25.66% (a decrease of 39,900 lots), showing intensified differences between long and short positions but decreased capital activity and increased market waiting sentiment [1]. - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate rose slightly from 70.5% to 71.04%, mainly due to a 0.9-percentage-point increase in the oil-based operating rate to 76.49%, while the coal-based operating rate remained unchanged at 62.95%. The profits of various ethylene-based production routes generally improved, but the coal-based profit decreased by 76 yuan/ton to 410.87 yuan/ton, and the profits of natural gas-based and associated gas-based production also decreased by 50 yuan/ton each. Cost pressure may suppress the release of non-oil-based production capacity [1]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand did not show significant improvement, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The gap between high polyester operating rates and low weaving loads persisted, and demand transmission was不畅 [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the East China main port increased by 34,000 tons to 541,000 tons, reaching a recent high, while the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 165,000 tons, indicating concentrated port arrivals but uneven regional distribution and a marginal increase in overall inventory pressure [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 0.10%, and the trading volume decreased by 25.66%. The position increased by 0.73%. The East China spot price decreased by 0.24% [4]. - **Profit**: The profits of ethylene-based production routes generally increased, with the SD oxidation method increasing by 10.37%, the SHELL oxidation method increasing by 14.35%, etc. The coal-based profit decreased by 15.67%, the natural gas-based profit decreased by 3.13%, and the associated gas-based profit decreased by 12.25% [4]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.77%, mainly due to a 1.20% increase in the oil-based operating rate. The coal-based, polyester, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 6.71%, while the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 7.30% [4]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **October 15th Market**: In the morning, the negotiation focus of the East China US dollar market rebounded slightly, with November shipments negotiated in the range of 485 - 488 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard. In the afternoon, the market fluctuated little. The mainstream market focus moved down, the South China market seller quotes were lowered, and the market transactions were light. The overnight crude oil price decline dragged down market sentiment, and the spot basis narrowed slightly. The Shaanxi region's ethylene glycol market spot price remained stable [5]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main port inventory statistics, and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [6][8][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Although there is an oversupply of steel and an accumulation of plate stocks, there are no signs of a collapse in demand. The inventory pressure can be relieved by compressing profits and reducing production. However, attention should be paid to the impact of new iron ore production capacity on steel. It is recommended to wait and see for single - sided trading and focus on the recovery of apparent demand in the weekly data of Steel Union today [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Due to the weak steel prices and declining profitability of steel mills, the weak demand will force the iron ore market to operate weakly. The overall commissioning progress of the Simandou project is faster than expected. The iron ore market is shifting from a state of tight balance to one of relative abundance. It is recommended to wait and see for single - sided trading, with a reference range of 750 - 800, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [3]. Coke Industry - The coke futures showed a volatile and weak trend. The cost is expected to increase due to concerns about coking coal supply caused by mining accidents. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke is recommended [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures showed a volatile trend. The spot price is expected to enter a rebound trend. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1080 - 1200, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot and futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3210 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price of rebar decreased from 3061 yuan/ton to 3034 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 33 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar in most regions was in a loss state [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.8 tons to 863.3 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The output of rebar decreased by 3.6 tons to 203.4 tons, a decrease of 1.7% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 127.9 tons to 1600.7 tons, an increase of 8.7%. The inventory of rebar increased by 57.4 tons to 602.3 tons, an increase of 9.5% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.1 to 10.6 tons, a decrease of 10.8%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 153.4 tons to 751.4 tons, a decrease of 17.0% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the 01 contract basis of some iron ore powders increased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder decreased from 827.1 yuan/ton to 821.6 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis of Bar - mixed powder increased from 53.2 yuan/ton to 55.5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The global shipping volume of iron ore decreased by 71.5 tons to 3207.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2%, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 437.1 tons to 3045.8 tons, an increase of 16.8% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 100.5 tons to 6979.3 tons, a decrease of 1.4% [3]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased by 61.6 tons to 14086.14 tons, an increase of 0.4%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 990.6 tons to 9046.2 tons, a decrease of 9.9% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke futures contracts decreased slightly. The 01 contract of coke decreased from 1655 yuan/ton to 1642 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8%. The coking profit decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 66.1 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 10.1 tons to 909.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1%. The coke inventory of coking plants increased, while the inventory of steel mills and ports decreased [5]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal futures contracts decreased slightly. The 01 contract of coking coal decreased from 1154 yuan/ton to 1151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%. The profit of sample coal mines remained unchanged at 466 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output decreased by 31.3 tons to 836.7 tons, a decrease of 3.6%, and the clean coal output decreased by 19.8 tons to 426.3 tons, a decrease of 4.4% [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 66.1 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [5]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory increased, while the inventory of ports, coking plants, and steel mills decreased [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal 2601, soybean oil 2601, and palm oil 2601 are all "oscillating weakly" [6]. - The market sentiment of the soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures is unstable, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations, including potential tariff increases and negotiation uncertainties, combined with the contradiction between high near - month inventory and expected far - month supply gaps in the domestic market, have weakened the support for the futures price of the soybean meal 2601 contract. The market sentiment is volatile, leading to a short - term weakly oscillating price [5]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The continuous downward pressure on international oil prices has an overflow effect on the oil market. Meanwhile, the weakening of the palm oil industry chain exerts significant pressure on the market. The possible increase in Indonesia's palm oil export tax may affect market sentiment. Until the market sentiment recovers, the palm oil futures price will oscillate weakly [7]. - **Key Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (not separately detailed in the text but included in the table) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Core Viewpoint - Recent decline in upstream crude oil prices has negatively impacted various energy chemical products, including styrene, which has experienced varying degrees of decline [1] Supply Side - Domestic maintenance plans for certain facilities have been implemented, leading to a decrease in industry operating rates from high levels, resulting in fluctuations in production [1] - The volume of imports arriving at ports has decreased month-on-month, alleviating short-term inventory pressure, although overall supply remains sufficient [1] Demand Side - The operating rates in downstream EPS and PS industries have seen a slight increase, providing some support [1] - However, there is no significant increase in orders from end-user sectors such as home appliances, leading to limited market follow-up and low purchasing enthusiasm, with overall demand being primarily rigid [1] Inventory Situation - Recent data indicates an accumulation of port inventories, with ongoing de-inventory pressure [1] - Future attention is required on marginal changes in supply and demand dynamics [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The decline of EB2511 is expected to weaken, with the daily range estimated to be around 6480 - 6600 [3]. - The output and capacity utilization rate of styrene are expected to increase slightly this week. The mismatch between upstream and downstream production may deepen the supply - demand contradiction. The inventory pressure is relatively high and may maintain a slow destocking trend. The cost support effect is gradually strengthening [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The trading volume of styrene futures active contracts is 433,433 lots, with a decrease of 7,309 lots; the closing price of the active contract is 6,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the long position of the top 20 holders is 299,752 lots, with a decrease of 4,064 lots; the net long position is - 20,008 lots, with a decrease of 7,092 lots; the short position is 440,525 lots, with an increase of 1,325 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,341 lots, with a decrease of 80 lots [2]. - The closing price of the November contract is 6,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price is 811 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 17 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price is 6600 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 100 US dollars/ton [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7,020 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 6,675 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton), 6,615 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), and 6,585 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene is 786 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 781 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price is 716 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FD US Gulf price is 457 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton [2]. - The FOB US Gulf spot price of pure benzene is 695.86 cents/gallon, unchanged; the CIF Taiwan price is 250 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the FOB Rotterdam price is 655 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The market prices in South, East, and North China are 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,630 yuan/ton, and 5,510 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate is 73.61%, with an increase of 2.37%. The national styrene inventory is 193,863 tons, with a decrease of 9,411 tons; the total inventory in East China's main ports is 19.65 million tons, with a decrease of 0.54 million tons; the trade inventory in East China's main ports is 12.15 million tons, with an increase of 0.51 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 40.74% (down 2.37%), 72.5% (up 1.5%), 54.6% (down 1.7%), 20% (down 7%), and 70.05% (down 0.27%) respectively [2]. Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th , China's styrene factory output was 347,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3%; the capacity utilization rate was 73.61%, a week - on - week increase of 2.37% [2]. - From October 3rd to 9th , the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS of styrene decreased by 1.4% week - on - week to 239,800 tons [2]. - As of October 9th , the styrene factory inventory was 193,900 tons, a decrease of 4.63% from the previous period. As of October 13th , the styrene inventory in East China's ports was 196,500 tons, a decrease of 2.67% from the previous period; the inventory in South China's ports was 30,500 tons, a decrease of 11.59% [2]. - As of October 13th , the non - integrated cost of styrene was 7,204.32 yuan/ton, and the non - integrated profit was - 499.32 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, due to rumors and weak overall commodity sentiment, the price has fluctuated. Fundamentally, supply is high while demand is weak with high inventory pressure. However, the downside space is limited, and it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped. The supply has increased, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It's currently in a state of low valuation and weak drivers, so it's recommended to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, affected by the macro - environment, the short - term price has broken down. It's recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially rebuild the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [14]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the cost side shows a potential supply - surplus situation. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. - For polyethylene, the cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The inventory is high, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. - For polypropylene, the cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [27]. - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance, and the inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. There is currently no driving force, and PXN is under pressure [28]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. The demand side may maintain a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is accumulating inventory. It's recommended to short on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.90 yuan/barrel, a 0.64% decline, at 448.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. In Fujeirah Port, gasoline inventory decreased, while diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 15 yuan, Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 68 yuan to 2274 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 11 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to rumors and weak overall sentiment, the price fluctuated. Fundamentally, supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The downside space is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan, and in Henan, it fluctuated between - 10 and + 20 yuan. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 13 yuan to 1597 yuan, and the basis was - 67 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the holiday, the futures price dropped, supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was high. It's in a state of low valuation and weak drivers, so it's recommended to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The market expectation is highly uncertain, and the global risk - asset prices declined. The rubber price oscillated weakly. The long and short sides have different views on the price trend. Tire production rates decreased during the National Day holiday [10][11][12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Affected by the macro - environment, the short - term price has broken down. It's recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially rebuild the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 29 yuan to 4692 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 112 (- 1) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 312 (+ 6) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall operating rate increased. The downstream operating rate remained flat, and the inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China decreased by 85 yuan/ton, and the spot price of styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The supply - side operating rate increased, the port inventory decreased, and the demand - side operating rate decreased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side shows a potential supply - surplus situation. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 6918 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased, inventory increased, and the downstream average operating rate increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The inventory is high, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 91 yuan/ton to 6602 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 65 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased, inventory increased, and the downstream average operating rate increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [27]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 92 yuan to 6338 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 12 dollars to 779 dollars. The load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas devices restarted or were under maintenance. The import from South Korea to China increased, and the inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load is high, downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance, and the inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. There is currently no driving force, and PXN is under pressure [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 70 yuan to 4440 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 60 yuan to 4380 yuan. The supply - side load decreased, and the downstream load remained flat. The inventory increased, and the spot processing fee increased while the futures processing fee decreased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side maintenance volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. The demand side may maintain a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 4061 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 62 yuan to 4145 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and the downstream load remained flat. The import forecast increased, and the port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is accumulating inventory. It's recommended to short on rallies [31].

Group 1: Report Core View - Methanol futures prices have fluctuated significantly recently, mainly due to intensified trading behavior on the futures market under the coexistence of inventory pressure, olefin drag, and Iranian disruptions. The current near - term fundamentals of methanol face significant pressure, but there are still expectations of overseas shutdowns in winter in the long - term. Considering short - term news, the long - short game on the futures market is intense, and investors are advised to be cautious and view it as a wide - range oscillation [3] Group 2: Summary by Related Content Fundamental Situation - As of October 9, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1543200 tons, an increase of 51000 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in the East China region increased by 47800 tons, and that in the South China region increased by 3200 tons. The port inventory is at the highest level in the past five years, and the domestic production facilities continue to operate at a relatively high rate, so short - term supply pressure still exists [3] Downstream Market - The prices of core downstream olefins have continued to decline due to Sino - US disturbances and weak oil prices, which is the main factor restricting methanol prices [3] International Situation - There are still disruptions from Iran. The US previously imposed sanctions on some Iranian vessels, including some methanol transport vessels. But early today, Trump's stance towards Iran changed, suggesting the possibility of lifting sanctions, which has short - term impacts on the futures market and significantly increases the volatility of methanol [3]