2026年1月31日，徽商期货有限公司在深圳成功举办第十四届"徽商之星"实盘大赛年度及第四季度颁奖 典礼与经验交流会。本次活动以"表彰优秀、交流赋能、共启新程"为核心，汇聚了80余名期货投资爱好 者与行业精英，现场气氛热烈、互动频繁，不仅为获奖选手送上荣誉与肯定，更搭建了一场兼具专业性 与实用性的投资经验共享盛宴，圆满达成预期效果。 作为徽商期货打造的核心投资者服务品牌，"徽商之星"实盘大赛已成功举办十四届，始终秉持"感恩 合 作 共赢 使命"的理念，为广大期货投资者搭建了切磋技艺、交流成长、展示风采的专业平台。历经多季 度的激烈角逐，一批交易功底扎实、投资策略成熟的优秀选手脱颖而出。活动现场，主办方为获得大赛 年度及第四季度佳绩的选手隆重颁奖，见证荣耀时刻的同时，也向所有参赛选手传递了"坚守纪律、理 性投资、持续精进"的交易理念。 经验交流环节是本次活动的核心亮点，徽商期货特别邀请9位获奖精英上台，结合自身实战经历，分享 最前沿、最实用的交易心得与策略技巧，覆盖多个投资维度、兼顾不同交易风格，为现场参会者带来了 一场干货满满的思想碰撞。分享会上，选手们各抒己见、倾囊相授：有的深入拆解交易的底层逻辑，结 合市 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量下降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为14.98万吨，比29日-0.79%。行业开工率为71.28%，比1月29日-0.68个百分点；产能利用率为75.09%，比1 月29日-0.6个百分点。本周2条产线放水，产量下降。下周1条产线存在冷修预期。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 随着时间的推移，需求端受长假因素影响，下游逐步进入收尾阶段，且对节后需求观望心态浓厚，节前囤货积极性不高，对原片产销支撑偏弱。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存小幅累库，企业总库存5306.4万重箱，环比+50万重箱，环比+0.95%，同比-11.77%。折库存天数23.1天，较上期+0.3天。长假累库在即。 | | 基差/价差 | 中性 | （1）本周基差震荡走低；（2）01-05价差震荡。 | | 估值 | 中性 | 估值一般。 | | 宏观及政策 | 偏多 | 岁末年初宏观和产业政策利好为主。 | | 投资观点 | 中性 | 近期供需双弱，基本面无异动 | | 交易策略 | | 单边：观 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract declined by 4.1%. The negative feedback of finished products on raw materials needs to be repaired. The pre - holiday raw material replenishment demand of steel mills has basically ended. The commodity market has been highly volatile recently, and there is strong pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment. It is recommended to observe cautiously. For the operation strategy, it is advised to take a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options [4][5][33][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - In January 2026, China's Logistics Industry Prosperity Index was 51.2%, maintaining an expansion trend. Rio Tinto Group withdrew from the negotiation to acquire Glencore due to a failure to reach an agreement on valuation. Last week, in the commodity futures market, except for a 8.44% increase in gold prices, other major commodity futures prices declined, with tin having the highest decline of 9.24%. In the global stock market, Chinese and US stocks generally declined, while European stocks rose. China's Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index had the highest decline of 5.76%, and France's CAC 40 Index had the highest increase of 2.5%. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index closed at 97.68, up 0.55%. In late January, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel - producing enterprises was 1.935 million tons, a 2.2% decline from the previous period; the steel inventory was 14.71 million tons, an 8.8% decline from the previous ten - day period and a 4.0% increase from the beginning of the year [14] 3.2 Supply - side Situation - As of December 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 119.65 million tons, an increase of 9.11 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $101.16 per ton, a decrease of $0.33 from the previous month. Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 71.393 million tons, an increase of 9.544 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipment volume was 27.635 million tons, a decrease of 3.328 million tons from the first half of the month [19][23] 3.3 Demand - side Situation - The report mentions the daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, the profitability of 247 steel mills, and the Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, but specific data analysis is not provided in the given text [24][26][30] 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Last week, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.53%, a 0.53% increase from the previous week and a 1.55% increase year - on - year. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.69%, a 0.22% increase from the previous week and a 0.07% decrease year - on - year. The steel - mill profitability was 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week and a 12.13% decrease year - on - year. The daily hot - metal output was 2.2858 million tons, an increase of 0.006 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.00014 million tons year - on - year. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 171.4071 million tons, an increase of 1.1845 million tons from the previous week; the daily port - clearance volume was 3.4108 million tons, an increase of 0.0877 million tons; the number of ships at ports was 111, an increase of 5. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 179.1468 million tons, an increase of 1.5642 million tons from the previous week; the daily port - clearance volume was 3.5758 million tons, an increase of 0.0987 million tons. Due to the threat of a hurricane, several major iron - ore export ports in Western Australia are clearing [31][32] 3.5 Market Outlook and Operation Strategy - The negative feedback of finished products on raw materials needs to be repaired. The pre - holiday raw material replenishment demand of steel mills has basically ended. The commodity market has been highly volatile recently, and there is strong pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment. It is recommended to observe cautiously. The operation strategy is to wait and see for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options [33][34]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年2月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价走弱，周一更是跌停，直接下跌超万元每吨，现货观望情绪浓重，贸易商待假情 绪上升，随着镍价进一步下探，下游有部分采购入场。供应方面，1月产量继续上升，国内库存继续垒 加，LME小幅回落，市场供应充足。产业链上，镍矿看涨情绪较浓重，印尼强需求和国内成本倒挂成交 冷清形成鲜明对比。镍铁价格开始回落，成本线下移。不锈钢库存继续回升，短期或成为价格压力。 新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货135800，基差3960，偏多 3、库存：LME库存285282，-792，上交所仓单51274，+810，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 9 日 PP：估值修复有限，出口周签单下滑 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2605 | 6691 | 0.22% | 450422 | -14114 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -161 | | -146 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -32 | | -34 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6520 | | 6540 | | | | 东 华 | 6530 | | 6530 | | | | 华 南 | 6750 | | 6750 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 盘面震荡，上游预售压力不大，下游陆续开始放假，成交氛围一般，基差弱稳，仓单高位。PP ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：呈现出外强内弱、震荡偏弱格局。目前国内大豆供应宽松，巴西大豆创纪录丰产且正处于收获 上市高峰期，2 月对华出口预计超千万吨，叠加国内油厂大豆和豆粕库存均处于历史同期高位，供应压力 持续。需求端因春节前备货基本结束、下游养殖业普遍亏损而表现疲软，饲料企业物理库存不降反升，现 货成交清淡。虽然国内豆类跟随外盘小幅反弹，但受到国内高库存与弱需求的双重压制整体上行乏力。短 期豆粕期价震荡偏弱运行。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has entered a phase of extreme volatility, with significant price fluctuations and rapid changes, leading to the emergence of a notable figure in the market, Bian Ximing, who is rumored to have made substantial profits during this period [1][4]. Group 1: Bian Ximing's Background and Market Influence - Bian Ximing is the actual controller of Zhongcai Futures and a significant figure in the Chinese futures market [5]. - He has been referred to as a "big short" by foreign media, a title that reflects his trading style and historical positions [6]. - Reports suggest that Bian's positions in Zhongcai Futures generated over $500 million (approximately 3.6 billion RMB) in profits from a large short position before a recent silver price collapse [7]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Philosophy - Bian Ximing's investment strategies have reportedly yielded nearly $4 billion (approximately 28 billion RMB) over three years through a combination of long positions in gold and copper and short positions in silver [7]. - His investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of understanding market cycles and the need for investors to adapt their strategies accordingly [8]. - Bian has documented his reflections on trading and investment over 30 years, focusing on how to navigate uncertainty in the market [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The current precious metals market is characterized by intense competition, where strong companies tend to gain market share during economic downturns, aligning with the principle of survival of the fittest [10]. - Investors are encouraged to accept market realities and identify opportunities by recognizing market inefficiencies [10]. - Bian's insights suggest that successful investing requires a deep understanding of companies and their growth potential, as well as a commitment to personal integrity and continuous learning [10][12].

边锡明。 近期有市场传闻称，本轮史诗级贵金属行情中，有位隐居海外的大佬豪赚280亿。 贵金属市场的波动，最近明显进入了一个更极端的阶段。 价格起落幅度之大、节奏之快，让不少参与者感到陌生——就在这种高度波动的背景下，市场中开始流 传起一个颇具传奇色彩的名字。 这一说法迅速在市场中发酵，也让这位在期货圈本就颇具分量的人物，再次被推到聚光灯下。 边锡明，是中财期货的实际控制人，也是中国期货市场绕不开的人物之一。 在外媒报道中，他曾被冠以"大空头"。 这个名字，并不来自个人自述，而是源于海外媒体对其相关席位历史交易风格的概括。 据FT和彭博测算，近期中财期货席位在近期白银价格崩盘前建立了大规模空头头寸，这笔逆势布局的 收益已超过5亿美元（约合36亿元人民币）。 这轮白银"史诗级"多空交战，并非边锡明第一次出手。据传闻报道，边锡明控制的中财期货席位在三年 时间内，通过连续做多黄金、做多铜、反手做空白银，累计实现投资收益近40亿美元（约合280亿人民 币）。 对于传闻，《期货日报》分析及中财期货官方回应称："中财期货席位持仓均为代客户持仓汇总，传闻 误将客户整体行为视为公司自营操作"。 因此，尽管市场传闻不断，但其个人 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bullish trend with relatively clear investment opportunities) [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Alumina: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with relatively clear investment opportunities) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with relatively clear investment opportunities) [1] - Tin: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and policy expectations. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions [1][2][3] - For most metals, there are risks of price adjustments during the Spring Festival period, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and choose appropriate investment strategies [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper reduced its positions, and the price fluctuated more widely at the MA40 moving - average line. The lowest price of the main copper contract dropped to 98,000 yuan. Mid - and downstream enterprises made purchases at low prices. SMM spot copper was reported at 99,605 yuan, with a premium of 40 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. Next week, with margin adjustments, the positions of Shanghai copper may continue to fall below 550,000 lots. More attention should be paid to the inter - period reverse arbitrage. For single - side trading, there is a high risk of continuous inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and investors should patiently wait to buy at low prices [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum showed a weak shock today. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan were - 150 yuan, - 260 yuan, and - 150 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded slightly to a positive value. In the short term, the macro - sentiment fluctuates, and the fundamental feedback is weak. The inventory performance before the Spring Festival is far worse than in previous years, and there is still adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. Casting aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, and the market activity is not high. Driven by the macro - situation and with aluminum prices at a high level, casting aluminum alloy has difficulty rising in tandem, and its seasonal price difference with Shanghai aluminum will continue to be weaker than in previous years. The operating production capacity of domestic alumina may decline, and the number of overhauls has increased, but there has been no large - scale long - term production reduction. The alumina market remains in a state of surplus. With the decline in ore prices, the cash - cost support for alumina is below 2,500 yuan. The low basis provides limited impetus for the rebound of the futures price. Under the policy expectation, the futures market maintains a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [2] Zinc - Shanghai zinc rebounded but was pressured and fell back at the 5 - day moving - average line. The moving - averages formed a death - cross, and the short - term downward trend continues. The nearest support below is at 24,000 yuan/ton. The bearish sentiment is gradually being released, but as the Spring Festival approaches, the risk - aversion sentiment of funds is strong. Before the macro - expectation improves significantly, it is difficult to see a large - scale return of long - positions. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate and decline. The expectation of oversupply in the fundamentals remains unchanged, and the strategy of short - selling on rebounds should be continued [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined, and the market trading was active. The downstream end - users of stainless steel became more cautious in purchasing due to high - price aversion. The actual transactions were weak, and the transactions were mainly concentrated in the arbitrage operations of futures - spot institutions. The goods were piled up in the circulation link. The arrival of goods at steel mills was limited, and although the inventory increased slightly, it was still at a low level. Traders were strongly willing to support the price, which supported the strong operation of the spot market. The market sentiment was panicked, and caution was advised [6] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced its positions and oscillated to the MA60 moving - average line, waiting for the social inventory data this week. The restocking next week will also be coming to an end. The recovery of the domestic upstream tin concentrate supply has affected the processing - fee quotation. It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small number of short - positions against the MA5 moving - average line. The tin price may adjust to the MA60 daily line or even the weekly moving - average system [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate showed a weak shock. The exchange policy affected the market participation. The continuously high price of lithium carbonate may have led to the closing of a large number of hedging positions. The strong spot market and long - position speculative positions are in the mainstream, and the position structure is fragile. The overall inventory - reduction speed of the market has slowed down, mainly because downstream enterprises replenish inventory opportunistically, and smelters are also showing signs of unsalable products. Traders' confidence in domestic products has wavered. The futures price of lithium carbonate has weakened, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely high [8] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon dropped significantly today, mainly affected by the news from the organic silicon industry. The entire organic silicon industry will implement a 30% emission - reduction target. If this target is implemented in the first quarter, based on the average monthly DMC production of 200,000 tons, it may affect the industry supply by 180,000 tons, corresponding to a reduction of about 90,000 tons in the demand for industrial silicon. Coupled with the significant decline in the polysilicon production schedule, the inventory of industrial silicon is showing a differentiated trend. The factory inventory in Xinjiang has decreased slightly, while the social inventory has climbed to 562,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,000 tons. The overall market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8,400 yuan/ton [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures reduced positions and closed down. At the industry level, the association expects the new domestic installed capacity in 2026 to be 180 - 240GW, which is in line with market expectations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the anti - involution orientation of the industry. Currently, the industry is still in a new round of in - depth adjustment period, and the problem of supply - demand mismatch has not been resolved. Enterprises are still under continuous operating pressure. The weekly inventory performance of the industrial chain is differentiated. The component inventory is 24.7GW, a decrease of 1.4GW compared with the previous week. The inventories of battery cells, silicon wafers, and polysilicon factories have all increased slightly. In the spot market, the price of N - type re - feed materials remained stable at 53,600 yuan/ton. After the emotional correction in the futures market, it is expected to maintain a shock [10]

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 6 日 棉花：临近春节，各地纺企陆续进入停工放假阶段，下游市场销购活动明显 减弱，仍维持开机企业多以库存生产或加快完成既有订单为主，新增订单明显不 足。内地市场需求回落对新疆纺企产销形成一定影响，新疆部分企业产销保持平 稳，整体订单相对充裕。预估节前仍然保持宽幅震荡格局。 白糖：巴西航运机构 Williams 发布的数据显示，截至 2 月 4 日当周，巴西 港口等待装运食糖的船只数量为 49 艘，此前一周为 54 艘。港口等待装运的食糖 数量为156.44万吨，此前一周为178.26万吨，环比减少21.82万吨，降幅12.24%。 其中，高等级原糖（VHP）数量为 146.31 万吨。桑托斯港等待出口的食糖数量为 93.17 万吨，帕拉纳瓜港等待出口的食糖数量为 21.07 万吨。 经测算，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算成本 3888 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完 税估算成本为 4934 元/吨；与日照白糖现货价比，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算利 润为 1512 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完税估算利润为 466 元/吨。 外糖巴西产量较预期有所减少 ...