Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; For inter - period, after the restart of the main PDH, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - spread strategy when the spread is high; For inter - variety, none [3] Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the restart of two PDH units in Wanhua Penglai and Hebei Haiwei has increased the supply, weakening the supply - side support and causing the spot price of propylene to decline. Some units are still under maintenance. On the demand side, the profits of propylene downstream have been significantly compressed, and the overall operating rate has decreased month - on - month. Some downstream products have reduced their purchasing enthusiasm due to cost pressure, which may suppress the upward space of propylene. On the cost side, the geopolitical situation is still volatile, oil prices have rebounded, and the price of external propane has continued to strengthen, boosting market sentiment and causing the propylene futures to fluctuate higher [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The main contract closing price of propylene is 6442 yuan/ton (+22), the East China basis is 58 yuan/ton (-97), and the North China basis is 173 yuan/ton (-107) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The propylene operating rate is 73% (-2%), the China CFR propylene - Japan CFR naphtha is 207 US dollars/ton (+11), and the propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 95 US dollars/ton (+13) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 279 yuan/ton (-70) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 33% (-4.04%), production profit is - 215 yuan/ton (+85); Epoxy propane operating rate is 74% (+0%), production profit is - 534 yuan/ton (+49); N - butanol operating rate is 87% (+1%), production profit is - 113 yuan/ton (+53); Octanol operating rate is 96% (+1%), production profit is 65 yuan/ton (+61); Acrylic acid operating rate is 74% (+5%), production profit is 485 yuan/ton (+153); Acrylonitrile operating rate is 72% (-1%), production profit is - 539 yuan/ton (+111); Phenol - acetone operating rate is 69% (-6%), production profit is - 272 yuan/ton (+25) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 31710 tons (-5320) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is less, supply is at a high level; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, terminal demand is general, and soda ash factory inventory is at a historically high level for the same period; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,308 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 108 yuan, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2][35]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; neutral [2]. - **Main position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 2. Influence Factors Summary - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year, with the industry output at a historically high level for the same period; the production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy - quality soda ash, has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,290 | 1,308 | 1.40% | | Heavy - quality soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | 1,200 | 1,200 | 0.00% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 90 | - 108 | 20.00% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 96.30 yuan/ton, and that using the East China combined - production process is - 92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historically low level [14]. - **Operating rate, production capacity and output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87.29%. The weekly output of soda ash is 761,100 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 421,700 tons, and the output is at a historical high [17][19]. - **Production capacity changes**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual launch of 1 million tons [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - production ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [35]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3067 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [36]

66.51 万吨。另外近期到港棉花主要以澳棉和印度棉为主，巴西棉较少，港口库存降至近两年最低。市场供 数据来源第三方(wind、同花顺、棉花信息网、棉花协会网)，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 应仍趋于偏紧态势。下游订单略有增加，纺企开机仍维持低位，关注传统消费旺季备货情况。操作上，建 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 议短期暂且观望。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日, ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an analysis of key futures market products, highlighting bullish and bearish opportunities, liquidity changes, and potential trading strategies based on market conditions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Key Bullish and Bearish Products Overview - Bullish Products: - CSI 500 Futures (IC.CFE): Strong bullish trend with an annualized rolling return of 6.07% [2] - CSI 1000 Futures (IM.CFE): Strong bullish trend with an annualized rolling return of 9.57% [2] - Iron Ore (I.DCE): High volatility with an upward trend, annualized return of 7.18% [2] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC.SHIF): Recently turned strong, annualized return of 0.19% [2] - Palm Oil (P.DCE): Clear upward trend with an annualized return of 7.86% [2] - Bearish Products: - 2-Year Treasury Bonds (TS.CFE): Significant upward pressure on interest rates, annualized return of -0.26% [2] - 10-Year Treasury Bonds (T.CFE): Significant upward pressure on interest rates, annualized return of -0.02% [2] - 30-Year Treasury Bonds (TL.CFE): Upward pressure on interest rates, annualized return of 0.52% [2] - Glass (FG.CZC): Weak fundamentals with a bearish continuation, annualized return of -7.65% [2] - Industrial Silicon (SI.GFE): Overcapacity leading to price pressure, annualized return of -7.54% [2] Group 2: Volume and Liquidity Changes - High Liquidity Products: - CSI 300 (IF.CFE), SSE 50 (IH.CFE), Copper (CU.SHF), Crude Oil (SC.INE) exhibit high liquidity [3] - Products with Significant Volume Increase: - Shipping Index (EC.INE): High volatility and active volume [3] - Iron Ore (I.DCE): Increased open interest and high capital attention [3] - Products with Volume Decrease: - Red Dates (CJ.CZC), Peanuts (PK.CZC): Low trading activity and poor liquidity [3] Group 3: Trading Opportunities - Bullish Opportunities: - IC/IM: Strong performance in small-cap indices, recommended to buy on dips [4] - Palm Oil (P): Tight supply-demand dynamics with technical breakout potential [4] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC): Supported by infrastructure expectations, short-term rebound anticipated [4] - Bearish Opportunities: - Treasury Bonds (TS/T/TL): Tight monetary policy leading to upward pressure on interest rates [4]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年09月15日08时18分 目前市场的焦点已经转为验证下游的实际需求情况 ，"反内卷"政策的落地情况对行情有一定的扰动 。由于目前房地产仍处震荡筑底过程中 ，市场担 忧未来需求的恢复仍有可能不及预期 。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，螺纹钢产量连续两周下降、厂库由增转降，表需连续两周减少，社库 连续第九周增加。五大品种总产量环比下降3.4万吨，厂库下降3.5万吨，社库增加17.4万吨，总库存增加13.9万吨，表观需求环比增加15.5万吨，其 中热卷的表观需求增加了20.8万吨。目前螺纹的需求恢复较慢，热卷的需求恢复较快。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹上方 10 日均线压力非常明 显，目前热卷相对螺纹偏强，受到 60 日均线的支撑，但上方布林带中轨有一定压力。 操作建议： 空单可以继续持有，逢低及时止盈离场，以低位震荡思路对待 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating", indicating a neutral stance in the short - term [4]. Report's Core View - The LPG market shows a situation of "weak oil and strong gas". PG prices are firm due to freight and capital factors. The supply - demand contradiction of propylene in the intermediate link is alleviated, and the terminal PP demand is saturated, resulting in continuous and substantial losses in PDH profits. In the short - term, PG prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with a relatively low current valuation. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts and geopolitical risks [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated and rose, with a range of 4360 - 4470 yuan/ton. The spot price trend was weaker than the futures, and the basis weakened. International crude oil prices first fell and then rose, and the trend of PG futures was basically the same as that of crude oil. International LPG prices increased, but domestic spot prices showed both increases and decreases. Chemical demand declined significantly, and the profits of multiple chemical plants continued to be in the red. The internal valuation of futures prices was neutral. The weekly average basis was 37 yuan/ton in East China, 120 yuan/ton in South China, and 30 yuan/ton in Shandong, with the lowest deliverable standard being in Shandong [7]. 2. Influencing Factors Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 53.74 million tons, including 20.52 million tons of civil gas, 21.04 million tons of industrial gas, and 17.89 million tons of ether - after carbon four. The arrival volume of LPG last week was 65 million tons. With the resumption of some devices in East China and Shandong last week, the supply increased. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, and it is expected that the domestic commercial volume may decline [4]. Demand - The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is weakening, but the price of civil gas remains firm in the short - term. In the carbon - four deep - processing sector, affected by new - energy substitution, gasoline demand has weakened. The profit of MTBE is inverted, but the operating rate is at a high level. The profit of alkylated gasoline has changed from profit to loss, and the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep. The ether - after market may decline and stabilize. In the carbon - three deep - processing sector, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is relatively stable, and the operating rate remains at a medium - to - high level. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has declined, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. There are continuous losses from the PDH device to the propylene and PP links [4]. Inventory - Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 17.91 million tons, and the port inventory was 318.65 million tons. The domestic LPG inventory continued to increase. Although the trading and transportation capacity resumed after the end of large - scale domestic events, the inventory pressure in some northern regions was gradually relieved. However, in other regions, due to increased supply and weak demand, the shipment volume decreased to varying degrees, and the refinery storage capacity utilization rate continued to rise. At the ports, the number of incoming ships decreased slightly, but the unloading volume was more than the arrival volume, with little change compared to last week. Coupled with the downward trend of overall chemical demand, the port inventory increased slightly [4]. Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was a certain value in East China, South China, and Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 6, and the lowest deliverable area was Shandong [4]. Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 70.49%, 55.81%, and 46.17% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 52 yuan/ton, - 291 yuan/ton, and - 180.50 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was a certain value, and the PG continuous - one to continuous - two month spread was a certain value. With the continuous increase in crude oil production, the cost segment was dragged down, and the PG - SC cracking spread continued to strengthen [4]. Other Factors - In October, OPEC+ increased production by 137,000 barrels again, starting the second round of the production - increase cycle to regain market share. The US non - farm payrolls data in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and an enhanced expectation of economic slowdown and interest - rate cuts. The geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East still tend to be tense, and the war may further escalate [4]. 3. Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies are to go long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, go long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and go long on PG2510 and short on SC2510 [4].

| | | 甲醇日评20250915: 低位震荡,关注低多机会 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 单位 2025/9/12 2025/9/11 | | | | | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2379.00 | 2387.00 | -8.00 | -0.34% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2385.00 | 2390.00 | -5.00 | -0.21% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2230.00 | 2213.00 | 17.00 | 0.77% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2277.50 | 2282.50 | -5.00 | -0.22% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2385.00 | 2385.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2272.50 | 2285.00 | -12.50 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: The contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks at the mine end [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between short - and long - term logics, and steel prices may fluctuate [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the market is under pressure [2][11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industry inventory is accumulating, and the strategy is to short at high prices [2][15]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market information changes [2][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,980 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,950 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, spot prices, and spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Many events occurred in Indonesia, including the trial production of the CNI nickel - iron project, environmental violations in the IMIP, plans to shorten mining quota periods, production suspensions in some nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and the takeover of a nickel - mine area by the forestry working group [4][5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Data on futures contracts (such as 2511 and 2601 contracts), spot prices, basis, and raw - material prices are provided [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased, and Zijin Mining's lithium - salt project was put into production [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Information on futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, prices, profits, inventories, and raw - material costs of industrial silicon and polysilicon is presented [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The three ministries and commissions issued the "National Industrial Resources Comprehensive Utilization Advanced and Applicable Process Technology Equipment Catalog (2025 Edition)" [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1 (slightly bearish), and that of polysilicon is 0 (neutral) [17].

商 品 研 2025 年 09 月 15 日 究 豆粕：美豆偏强，连粕或反弹 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3959 | +33（+0.84%） | 3956 | +0（+0.00%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3070 | +4（+0.13%） | 3066 -21 | （-0.68%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1045.25 | +11.75（+1.14%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 288.3 | +0.6（+0.21%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3060～3090， 较昨+10至+20； M2601+0， 持平； | 现货M2601-60， 10-1月M2601+40/+50/+80， | 持平； 9月 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年9月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14950，基差-870 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退 ...