商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 26 日 铂：多头情绪占优 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 钯： 震荡上行 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 686. 95 | | 4. 46% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 591. 25 | | -2.59% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2272. 90 | | l | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2253.00 | | l | | | | 纪金期货2606 | 529. 05 | | -8. 54% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货包金 | 416. 00 | | -9.37% | | | | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1,821.00 | | l | | | | 伦敦现货纪金(前日) | 1.723.50 | | ー | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 26 日） 品种观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：受圣诞节假期影响，CBOT 市场休市，国际市场指引暂时缺位。国内市场，贸易商多持观 望态度，密切关注油厂大规模停机计划，普遍延续滚动拿货策略以规避库存风险。当前美豆上涨部分 抵消了人民币升值对进口成本的压制，成本驱动因素趋于多元，豆粕期价在底部区间呈现反复震荡格 局。短期来看，汇率波动、外盘节奏及国内供需节奏交织影响，市场缺乏单边趋势动力。豆粕期价仍 将维持震荡格局。 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 市场谨慎观望，焦煤低位运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified - Methanol: Not specified - Propylene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, representing short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current disk, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ななな (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Caustic soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - РХ: ★☆☆ (One red star, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the disk) [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene glycol: 女女女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Short - fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: なな女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Soda ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle chips: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: なな女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including supply, demand, price trends, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the analysis of each product's fundamentals [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Olefins - Polyolefins] - Propylene futures opened higher in the morning, oscillating around the 5 - day moving average. Although low - price transactions improved slightly, the supply in Shandong was overall loose due to increased external supplies. With the rising production cost of PDH enterprises, the willingness to offer discounts may weaken [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures oscillated narrowly. The price of the domestic polyethylene market continued to decline as downstream factories were cautious in purchasing. Polypropylene faced insufficient new orders, and both downstream and middle - men were cautious in trading, leading to price discounts by producers [2] [Pure Benzene - Styrene] - The price of pure benzene futures oscillated at a low level. The port inventory continued to rise, but the supply - demand pressure may ease in the future. Consider a long position in the month - spread positive set on dips in the medium term [3] - Styrene futures continued to rise. Although the export increased, the supply - side pressure remained due to increased domestic production. The market procurement was mainly for rigid demand [3] [Polyester] - PX increased in position and price, and PTA followed suit. There will be a supply increase in the short term and a decrease in downstream demand around the Spring Festival. Maintain a long - position idea in the medium term [4] - Ethylene glycol oscillated at a low level. Although there is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, it may be alleviated by reduced arrivals and device maintenance. The supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter, but it is still under long - term pressure [4] - Short - fiber prices fluctuated with raw materials. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle chips' demand weakened, and the market is mainly driven by cost, facing long - term over - capacity pressure [4] [Coal Chemical Industry] - Methanol oscillated narrowly. The port inventory increased significantly, but there is an upward driving force in the medium and long term. Consider a long position in the 5 - 9 month - spread positive set on dips [5] - Urea production enterprises continued to reduce inventory significantly. The short - term supply - demand situation improved marginally, and the market oscillated strongly [5] [Chlor - Alkali] - PVC oscillated strongly. The supply pressure may ease in 2026, but the demand is weak, and it may operate in a low - level range [6] - Caustic soda oscillated strongly. Although the inventory decreased slightly, the supply pressure is still high, and the upward range is expected to be limited [6] [Soda Ash - Glass] - Soda ash oscillated strongly. The supply pressure is large, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus. Consider a short - position strategy on rebounds and a long - glass short - soda ash 05 strategy at low levels [7] - Glass oscillated. The industry inventory increased slightly, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the industry needs to reduce capacity to reach balance [7]

在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出 更优质的内容 文 |小戎 哈喽，大家好，小戎这篇国际评论，主要来分析道明证券白银期货翻车案例，劝诫个人投资者远离期 货，选择白银现货长期持有更稳妥。 这玩意儿跟《霍元甲》里霍师傅落水一样，别跟着水流瞎飘，沉下心抱着"石头"（也就是现货）慢慢往 岸边走，才能活下来，那些炒纸白银的，稍微跌一点就慌得一批，听风就是雨赶紧抛售，最后错过长期 收益，纯纯是心态崩了。 先给各位散户兄弟提个醒：期货这玩意儿，别碰！别碰！别碰！重要的事儿说三遍，最近道明证券那波 操作，简直是给咱们上了堂活生生的"反面教材课"。 白银市场大博弈 这道明证券可不是小角色，在白银市场分析界堪称"预言家"，之前预判白银挤兑时间准得一批，结果10 月8号在48.37美元/盎司建了空仓，逻辑倒是没毛病——觉得挤兑会让银价涨，到50美元就会有大批白 银砸进来压价。可坏就坏在，预判对了方向，却把时间算错了六天！ 就这六天差池，直接把自己坑了。 10月16号扛不住压力提前平仓，亏了239万美元，要是再坚持到21号砸盘，本来能赚钱的，你看，连专 业机构、手握内部数据的大佬都栽了 ...

2025 年 12 月 25 日 铂：外盘休市，警惕回调 钯： 投资情绪转向，料下行幅度较大 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 657. 65 | | 6. 08% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 606. 99 | | 8.08% | | | | 纽约铂主连 | 2272. 90 | | -2. 03% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金 | 2253. 00 | | -1.40% | | | | 锂金期货2606 | 578. 45 | | 8. 62% | | | | 人民币现货贸金 | 459.00 | | 5.03% | | | 价格 | 纽约锂主连 | 1.821.00 | | -7.28% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金 | 1.723.50 | | -7.24% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | 广铂(千 ...

2025 年 12 月 25 日 镍：盘面资金博弈，追高仍需谨慎 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 128,000 | 4,560 | 14,200 | 10,910 | 12,470 | 7,270 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 13,075 | 170 | 695 | 520 | 740 | 185 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 1,095,331 | 708,345 | 955,735 | 975,312 | 946,797 | 1,042,432 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 365,097 | 101,341 | 174,989 | 202,301 | 160,211 | 179,393 | ...

| 生猪：投机需求兑现 | | --- | | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11780 | | 50 | | | 价 格 | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11900 | | 100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11960 | | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11300 | | 55 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11480 | | 65 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11985 | | 50 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 | 持仓量 | ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-24 PTA/PX维持强势，关注资金动态 市场要闻与数据 近期在PTA强势上涨下，长丝工厂亏损加剧，涤丝三主流大厂已确定本周三落实新增POY减产10%，FDY延续前期 的减产15%，同步安排监督检查。关注检修兑现情况。 市场分析 成本端，地缘冲突升温下原油有所反弹，委内瑞拉成为短期的市场焦点，但明年Q1需求淡季，油价的下行压力依 然较大，不过近期由于海外节假日以及年初的商品指数基金调仓，流动性可能对阶段性行情产生扰动。 策略 单边：PX/PTA/PF/PR谨慎偏多，短期在资金抱团下价格快速上涨，需要警惕资金减仓回撤风险。 PX/PTA/PF/PR谨慎偏多，但短期在资金抱团下价格快速上涨，警惕资金减仓回撤风险，关注聚酯负荷变动。 PX方面，明年二季度PX检修较多，远端预期较好，同时聚酯开工坚挺下PXN有支撑，但调油无明显起色，关注资 金动向以及下游聚酯负荷变动。TA方面，近端检修较多，12月平衡表去库，而PTA供应尚未回归, 1月也没有累库 压力, 较此前预期好转；中长期随着产能集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善，另外明年二季度PX检修 较多，远端预期较好。PF方面，PF ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | 供应端略有降负，PTA 装置按计划检修且整体检修力度较大（英力士、逸 盛宁波周末重启；英力士另一条线降负后存停车可能，四川能投延后重启， | | | PX/PTA | | 独山能源 1#、逸盛大连、逸盛海南维持停车状态；与此同时，逸盛新材料 | | | | 谨慎追涨 计划 | 1 月检修）。下游需求相对较好但预期走弱（织造订单持续下行）。 | | | ★ | | 成本端支撑尚存。短期来看，基本面相对健康，供需偏紧，但 1 月存累库 | | | | | 预期。 | | | | | 国内乙二醇装置整体开工负荷提升，海外装置整体变动不大（伊朗 | | | | | Morvarid12 月上停车检修 3 周、Farsa 计划 12 月底停车检修 2-3 周； | | | 乙二醇 | 反弹布空 | Equate1#月底检修）；下游需求相对较好但预期走弱。港口库存回升，12 | | | ★ | | 月存累库预期。乙二醇估值偏低， ...