Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation strategy for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors allocate major asset classes evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction in the fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 2.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is a short - term tightening trend, it is not expected to have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors that may improve US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more positive information was found in the October inflation data. Additionally, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [8]. 2.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. With the congestion of small - cap funds, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the option market liquidity falling short of expectations, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Considering factors such as policy, fundamental recovery, and tariffs, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, there is pressure on loading and a lack of upward drivers. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation is released in advance, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is proposed. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment. Affected by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed's policy, and domestic demand, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: With the linkage between stocks and futures, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and rise. However, it is affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production is uncertain, and there is a risk of significant price fluctuations. Affected by demand, supply, and new technologies, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus. Pay attention to the cost side, such as crude oil and overseas propane, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the strength of refined oil products, it may run strongly. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [11]. Agriculture - **Pig**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate and fall. Affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures price rebounds strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. Affected by production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, it is expected to fluctuate and fall [11]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuation range is limited. Affected by demand and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate [11].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant rally on November 10, with gold and silver prices rising over 2% and 4% respectively, driven by factors such as declining consumer confidence in the U.S. and ongoing central bank gold purchases [1][4]. Price Movements - As of the report, the following prices and changes were noted: - London Gold: $4101.06, up 2.51% - COMEX Gold: $4113.5, up 2.59% - London Silver: $50.018, up 3.50% - COMEX Silver: $50.065, up 3.99% - Spot Platinum: $1582.50, up 2.59% - Spot Palladium: $1424.88, up 3.14% [2]. Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 50.3 in November, down from 53.6 in October and significantly lower than the previous year's 71.8, indicating ongoing concerns about employment and inflation [3]. - The decline in consumer confidence is attributed to a 17% drop in personal financial conditions and an 11% decrease in expectations for business prospects [3]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks purchased a net total of 220 tons of gold in Q3, a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% increase year-on-year, with total net purchases reaching 634 tons in the first three quarters of the year [4]. - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record high of 1313 tons in Q3, with a total value of $146 billion [4]. Investment Demand for Gold - Investment demand for gold surged to 537 tons in Q3, a 47% year-on-year increase, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and investor fears of missing out [5]. - Gold ETF holdings increased by 222 tons in Q3, with a total inflow of $26 billion, contributing to a total increase of 619 tons (approximately $64 billion) in the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing liquidity environment and persistent risk aversion will support precious metal prices, with expectations for a rebound in gold and silver prices in the coming quarters [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the overall market showed a trend of falling first and then rising. Except for the CSI 500 Index, most major indices closed higher, with the SSE 50 Index leading the gains with a weekly increase of 0.89%. The power equipment and coal sectors performed well, with weekly increases of 4.98% and 4.52% respectively, while the computer sector was weak with a weekly decline of about 2.54%. The market focus was on the US dollar liquidity issue. After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, there were signs of marginal tightening of US dollar liquidity, putting pressure on US stocks. On Friday, news of the end of the US government shutdown improved market risk appetite, driving a rebound in US stocks and a decline in the US dollar. The impact of US dollar liquidity shocks on the domestic market was limited, and Chinese asset prices showed resilience. The short - term external disturbances had limited impact on the domestic market, and it is expected that the domestic market will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the medium term. Continue to monitor subsequent changes in US dollar liquidity and domestic policy signals [1]. - In the options market last week, the implied volatility (IV) of various financial options generally declined. The IV of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index options (IV = 32%) and ChiNext Index options (IV = 28%) has been falling since September but remains at a relatively high level above the median of the past year. The IV of 50 and 300 options is currently in the range of 12% - 14%, and the IV of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options is about 18%. The position PCR of most financial options is in the range of 75% - 110%, slightly higher than the previous week [2]. - The market may continue to show a relatively strong oscillating pattern, and the IV of most options varieties continues to decline. The impact of factors such as US dollar liquidity on domestic asset prices is limited. It is expected that the market may continue to oscillate strongly, and sectors such as power equipment will perform relatively strongly. The current domestic liquidity environment remains positive, and inflation data has stabilized and rebounded. One can continue to hold indices with relatively reasonable valuations, such as the SSE 300 and CSI A500. Since the current option IV has declined, one can also buy out - of - the - money call options with a long - term maturity on the corresponding indices. For the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index, which has experienced large fluctuations recently and still has a relatively high static valuation, if one holds the underlying asset, one can consider buying out - of - the - money put options or selling out - of - the - money call options to reduce exposure risk. If one has accumulated a large amount of spot gains, one can also consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small amount of long - term call options to cope with the irrational rise of the market, such as the ChiNext Index. The CSI 1000 - 2603 stock index futures still have a high discount, and one can consider continuing to hold the covered call strategy of buying the index futures and selling out - of - the - money call options [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - The overall market last week showed a trend of falling first and then rising. Most major indices closed higher, with the SSE 50 Index leading the gains. The power equipment and coal sectors performed well, while the computer sector was weak. The market focused on US dollar liquidity. After the Fed's meeting, US dollar liquidity tightened marginally, affecting US stocks. The end of the US government shutdown improved market sentiment. The impact on the domestic market was limited, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. 3.2 Options Market - The IV of various financial options generally declined last week. The IV of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index and ChiNext Index options has been falling but remains high. The IV of 50 and 300 options is in the 12% - 14% range, and that of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options is about 18%. The position PCR of most financial options is in the 75% - 110% range and slightly increased [2]. 3.3 Strategy Outlook - The market may continue to oscillate strongly, and the IV of most options varieties continues to decline. Hold indices with reasonable valuations and consider buying long - term out - of - the - money call options. For high - volatility indices, manage risk through option strategies. Consider the covered call strategy for CSI 1000 - 2603 stock index futures [3]. 3.4 Market Data of Each Index - Detailed data on the closing prices, price changes, IV, IV changes, historical quantiles, option trading volumes, and position PCR of various indices such as the SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext Index, Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index, and Shenzhen 100 Index are provided [5]. - Data on the price, IV, and related quantiles of each index over different time periods (recently, in the past year, and in the past three years) are presented, along with the IV term structure, intraday IV trends, and option smile curves of each index [8][19][27][34][43][48][52][64][70][77][86][93].

Core Viewpoint - The report discusses the factors influencing oil prices, including geopolitical tensions, OPEC production decisions, and global economic conditions, predicting fluctuations in oil prices between $50 and $70 per barrel in Q4 2025, with a potential drop to $40 in 2026 [16][11][8]. Oil Price Influencing Factors - Geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production cuts have supported oil prices, while U.S. shale production and global demand fluctuations have created volatility [8][11]. - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with further increases planned for December [28][16]. - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory as of October 24, 2025, was 416 million barrels, down 9.54 million barrels year-on-year, and 5.91% lower than the five-year average [17][24]. Global Oil Supply and Demand - Global oil demand is projected to grow, with the EIA forecasting an increase of 300,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 240,000 barrels per day in 2026 [7][16]. - The IEA predicts a similar growth trajectory for global oil and liquid production, with increases of 270,000 and 130,000 barrels per day respectively [7][16]. - China's industrial crude oil processing volume increased by 6.8% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating a recovery in demand [24]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was approximately 4.11% as of October 31, 2025, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [16][34]. - The manufacturing PMI in China for October 2025 was reported at 49.0%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [47]. Inventory and Production Insights - As of October 31, 2025, the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. was 546, a decrease of 39 rigs year-on-year, with production remaining stable at 13.64 million barrels per day [24][17]. - Global oil inventories are expected to increase, with a projected average growth of 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 [16]. Price Predictions and Market Outlook - The Brent crude oil price is expected to average $69 per barrel in 2025, with a decline to $52 per barrel in 2026 [16][7]. - The report highlights the potential for oil prices to test lower levels due to increasing supply and geopolitical uncertainties [16][11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of the prolonged U.S. government shutdown on market liquidity, particularly the tightening of dollar liquidity, with expectations for the government to potentially reopen by November 17 [2][7]. - Gold and silver prices experienced slight declines, with COMEX gold down 0.14% and silver down 0.05%, while copper prices saw a more significant drop of -3.05% on COMEX [5][8]. - The copper market is under pressure due to reduced domestic consumption and increased inventory levels, with SHFE copper prices returning to around 85,000 yuan per ton [9][10]. Group 2 - The article notes that the gold price is expected to have limited downside potential in the medium to long term, supported by factors such as U.S. sovereign credit risk and geopolitical tensions [8][56]. - The copper concentrate TC weekly index increased slightly to -42.1 USD/dry ton, indicating ongoing negotiations and price fluctuations in the copper concentrate market [14]. - COMEX copper inventory has increased significantly, surpassing 360,000 tons, reflecting a continued accumulation since mid-March [10][11]. Group 3 - The article highlights that the financial liquidity risks are brewing due to the government shutdown, leading to a significant pullback in U.S. stocks and Bitcoin, which are sensitive to liquidity changes [7][8]. - The article mentions that the domestic market for electrolytic copper has seen an increase in inventory, with a total of 202,600 tons, indicating a slight rise in supply amid weak demand [21]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 2.9 tons to 1,042 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1.01 tons to 15,089 tons, reflecting shifts in investor sentiment [48].

芦哲、张佳炜（芦哲系东吴证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 核心观点 核心观点：本周市场对AI泡沫化的担忧，叠加联邦政府关门时间破历史纪录、最高法院对IEEPA关税判决带来的不确定性，市场避险情绪大幅走高，美股 大跌，美债利率走势震荡。截至最新美国联邦政府停摆时间已达40天，超越2018年底至2019年初停摆35天的历史纪录。持续的政府停摆除了导致非农、 GDP等关键数据缺失外，也开始对经济产生更大负面影响。一方面，由于公务员薪资等政府发放收入无法按期支付，居民消费面临一定的下行压力；另 一方面，政府停摆导致财政持续融资但无法支出，TGA余额持续增加，叠加缩表持续、RRP接近耗尽，货币市场流动性有所收紧，但其与近期风险资产大 幅回调更多为平行而非交叉的事件。向前看，随着预期的11月政府结束停摆，TGA泄洪，12月开始的经济数据与美元流动性料所改善。同时，由于12月 FOMC参考的11月经济数据（如能够发布）仍处于恶化阶段，叠加近期的美元流动性问题，美联储12月再度降息仍是大概率事件。 大类资产：AI泡沫、政府关门与关税裁决担忧推动市场避险情绪，带动美股大跌。本周市场对AI泡沫化的担忧，叠加联邦政府关 ...

Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of US dollar liquidity, highlighting the coexistence of overall abundance and structural pressures in the market. Group 1: Federal Funds Market - The federal funds market remains a cornerstone of dollar liquidity, with bank reserves stable at approximately $3.2 trillion despite the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction since June 2022 [1][10][12] - The overnight reverse repurchase (ON RRP) tool has acted as a buffer, absorbing excess funds from non-bank institutions, but its capacity is diminishing, indicating a weakening protective mechanism [1][10][12] Group 2: Repo Market - The repo market is tightening, as evidenced by the widening spread between the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) and the ON RRP rate, reaching a year-to-date high [2][19] - The ratio of primary dealers' reverse repos to reserve balances is increasing, signaling pressure on liquidity provision capabilities [2][19] - The usage of the standing repo facility (SRF) reached a record $11 billion at the end of June 2025, reflecting rising vulnerabilities in the repo market [2][22] Group 3: Offshore Dollar Market - The offshore dollar market has shifted from traditional bank credit to bonds, with foreign exchange derivatives becoming a key liquidity source, posing significant maturity mismatch risks [3][26] - The cross-currency swap basis serves as a critical indicator of offshore dollar scarcity, with recent trends suggesting a potential weakening of the dollar's traditional safe-haven status [3][26] - The Federal Reserve's tools, including central bank currency swaps and FIMA repo facilities, are crucial for maintaining global dollar liquidity stability [3][26] Group 4: Outlook - While overall dollar liquidity remains ample, structural pressures are accumulating, particularly due to the Fed's balance sheet reduction and rising Treasury General Account (TGA) balances [4][10] - The combination of the Fed's balance sheet contraction and Treasury issuance distorts the dollar's monetary pyramid structure, increasing financial system fragility [4][10] - Despite these pressures, the likelihood of a systemic dollar liquidity crisis remains low, thanks to the Fed's established multi-layered liquidity support tools [4][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing tightness in US dollar liquidity and its impact on global markets, particularly highlighting the relative resilience of A-shares amidst overseas adjustments [2] Group 1: Market Conditions - US dollar liquidity remains tight, influencing global asset allocation strategies [2] - A-shares have shown relative strength compared to other markets during recent adjustments [2] Group 2: Investment Implications - The current market environment suggests potential investment opportunities in A-shares due to their resilience [2] - Investors may need to reassess their strategies in light of the tightening liquidity and its effects on various asset classes [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Recent liquidity crisis in the US led to a "bond market blood - sucking → risk asset blood - loss" chain. The market is in a capital re - pricing cycle, and the current decline is due to capital cost rather than fundamental deterioration [9]. - The wave of US Treasury issuance and fiscal deficit expansion will strengthen the mid - term pattern of liquidity tightening and asset re - pricing. Dollar liquidity will remain tight from November to December, and rising bond yields will push up global capital pricing and suppress high - valuation assets [9]. - The market is in a phased switch from liquidity flooding to pricing callback. Once fiscal spending resumes and the Fed stops liquidity withdrawal or shifts policy, asset prices will rise again. This is a valuation adjustment, not a structural breakdown [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Yield Review - As of November 7, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 9bp in two weeks, reaching 4.11%. The 2 - year yield rose 7bp and the 30 - year yield rose 11bp compared to two weeks ago [5]. 3.2 US Treasury Market Changes - In late October, the duration of US Treasury issuance slightly rebounded. The issuance amounts were $68.47 billion for 2 - year, $69.902 billion for 5 - year, and $43.95 billion for 7 - year bonds. The US fiscal deficit in September was $197.9 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to $1.78 trillion [5]. 3.3 Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in US Treasury futures slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers dropped to 5.738 million contracts. The federal funds rate futures market remained net short, rising to 395,400 contracts [5]. 3.4 US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy 3.4.1 Monetary Policy - On October 30, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00%, and announced to stop balance - sheet reduction in December and reinvest all MBS principal repayments in short - term bonds. Powell emphasized that the decision on further rate cuts in December depends on data [6]. 3.4.2 Fiscal Policy - As of November 5, the US Treasury's TGA deposit balance expanded by $37.63 billion in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool expanded by $18.06 billion, increasing short - term uncertainty in the liquidity buffer [6]. 3.4.3 Economic Situation - As of November 1, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.22 (2.13 two weeks ago), indicating short - term economic improvement after stability [6].