1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon) are rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [1] 2. Report's Core View - The steel market has been declining but may rebound in the short term due to factors like policy disturbances and Fed's loose signals. Iron ore prices are expected to be strong in the short term because of the increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September. Coke and coking coal may see short - term rebounds due to safety inspection expectations after the Fujian coal mine accident. Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon may also have short - term rebounds influenced by macro - sentiment but should be sold at high prices in the medium term [1][3][7][11][15][19] 3. Summary by Variety Rebar - **View**: Currently, blast furnace profits are good, and electric furnace profits have improved. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce, with high pig iron production. However, demand is weak, and construction steel sales are at a low level. The limit on blast furnaces in Tangshan during the military parade was lower than expected, and supply - demand is expected to be loose [1][4] - **Operation Suggestion**: The "anti - involution" atmosphere has faded, and the market has declined. But there may be policy disturbances later, and it may rebound in the short term after the Fed's loose signals [1][5] Hot - Rolled Coil - **View**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory have all slightly increased, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of blast furnace limits in Tangshan during the military parade is limited, and supply - demand has a loose trend [1][4] - **Operation Suggestion**: The futures are weak, but after continuous declines, the short - term downside space may be limited, and there may be a short - term rebound [1][5] Iron Ore - **View**: Pig iron production has increased again. Environmental protection limits are less than expected, steel mills have finished restocking, and port inventories are accumulating. Overseas ore arrivals and shipments have both increased, with neutral fundamentals. The increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September is bullish for commodity prices in the short term [1][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [1][8] Coke - **View**: Coke spot has started the seventh round of price hikes but may face game - playing with steel mills later. Coke enterprises' profits have improved and turned positive. Supply - demand is relatively balanced, and production and inventory are stable. The "anti - involution" atmosphere has faded, but the Fujian coal mine accident brings safety inspection expectations, supporting coking coal and leading to a short - term rebound [1][11] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [1][12] Coking Coal - **View**: Domestic coking coal production is flat month - on - month and lower than last year. Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased significantly recently. Mine inventories have stopped decreasing, and the transfer to downstream has slowed. Pig iron production is still high, and raw material demand is stable. The market sentiment has faded, and futures have a premium over warehouse receipt costs, with downward repair space in the medium term. However, it may rebound in the short term due to safety inspection expectations [1][15] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [1][16] Ferromanganese - **View**: The fundamentals are becoming looser, but there is still short - term demand resilience under a new round of concentrated demand release. The total inventory in the statement continues to decline, but the absolute level is still high. The combined shipments of the three major countries of manganese ore this period are 104.5 tons, a significant increase from the previous period, mainly from South Africa and Australia. Arrivals decreased slightly month - on - month, and port inventory is 446.6 tons, basically the same as last week [1][19] - **Operation Suggestion**: Manganese ore prices have not significantly declined, and the cost side has some support. It may rebound in the short term affected by macro - sentiment, but the medium - term strategy of selling at high prices remains unchanged [1][20] Ferrosilicon - **View**: This week, production continued to increase while demand declined, and the fundamentals are becoming looser. Enterprise inventories continue to decline month - on - month but are still at a high absolute level, and the overall supply pressure remains [1][19] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is advisable to wait and see. The medium - term strategy of selling at high prices remains unchanged [1][20]

李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 2025 年 8 月 25 日 宏观预期或仍摇摆 镍价区间震荡 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 镍周报 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 ⚫ 宏观面，报告期内，市场对美联储的降息预期再度转向。在 经济数据表现尚可驱动下，美联储部分官员发布鹰派言论。 认为关税导致的通胀压力依然大于劳动力市场走弱的压力， 市场对9月联储降息的预期由前期的95%左右降至上周五的 75%附近。 ⚫ 基本面：海外镍矿供给延续宽松预期，红土镍矿 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-08-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 核心逻辑：近期国内沪胶期货市场处在由供需基本面因素为主导的行情中。目前东南亚产区处在割 ...

品种晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-08-25 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 晨会纪要 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知 行 合 一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 杰克逊霍尔会议鲍威尔偏鸽，中国权益领涨全球 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250815-20250822) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.08.25 报告摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 本周(20250815-20250822)本周五的杰克逊霍尔会议上，鲍威尔整体发言偏鸽，认为当前的形势意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要降息。但 同时也指出在近期，通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行。整体态度偏鸽，但市场也对短期快速降息的预期进行了修正。本周中国股市持续走强，领涨全球股市，1）固收方面， 10Y美债收益率下行7BPs至4.26%，美元指数略微下跌，当前位于100以下；2）权益方面，本周中国股市持续走强，创业板、沪深300和恒生科技领涨全球股市，分别上涨6.1%、 4.2%和4.1%；3）商品方面，本周商品类资产多数反弹，布伦特原油上涨1.71%，黄 ...

截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为781.12元/克，上涨0.71%。 来源：金融界 2. 地缘政治局势：俄乌和平谈判加速推进，美俄乌会谈受关注。若冲突缓和，将削弱黄金避险需求；反 之，地缘政治紧张会增强黄金避险吸引力。如近期俄乌领导人双边会谈筹备等消息影响市场对黄金的避 险需求判断。 3. 经济数据表现：美国非农及CPI等数据受关注。数据走弱强化降息逻辑支撑金价，强劲则可能引发震 荡。如美国7月PPI显示价格压力回升，削减了对"超大幅降息"的押注，影响黄金价格。 走势展望点评 黄金走势受多因素交织影响。短期来看，美联储降息预期和地缘政治局势变化将主导金价波动。若美联 储释放明确降息信号或地缘政治紧张加剧，金价有望上涨；反之则可能承压。长期而言，若全球经济不 确定性增加、降息周期开启，黄金作为避险资产和抗通胀工具，仍有上涨空间，但需警惕经济数据好转 或美联储政策转向带来的回调风险。 国际黄金价格报3411.4美元/盎司，下跌0.21%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 1. 美联储降息预期：市场普遍预期美联储9月降息，CME FedWatch工具显示9月降息25个基点概率接近 ...

Group 1 - The State Council's recent meetings signal increased policy support for the recycling of consumer goods, potentially leading to expanded funding and product categories [1] - The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, with more incremental policies likely to be introduced in the second half of 2025 to boost the real economy [2][10] - The market is currently in a phase of "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom," suggesting a high probability of continued market performance, albeit with accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2][10] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices have rebounded significantly, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which have increased expectations for a rate cut in September [3][18] - The U.S. inflation data for July showed a rebound, and positive signals from U.S.-Russia negotiations have eased geopolitical risks, supporting gold and silver prices [3][18] - The supply of the stablecoin USDe has surged to a historical high of 12.03 billion, driven by the enactment of the U.S. stablecoin legislation [7] Group 3 - The recent hurricane season has been relatively calm, with Hurricane Erin moving away from key oil and gas infrastructure, which may stabilize oil prices [4][12] - The U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 235,000, exceeding market expectations, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [4][13] - The domestic methanol inventory has reached a historical high of 1.2485 million tons, with a significant increase in imports expected in the coming weeks [14]

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 降息预期"先抑后扬" 证券研究报告 海外经济跟踪周报 20250824 海外市场复盘（8.18-8.22） 海外权益，本周先抑后扬。本周前四天标普 500 连跌四天，周五大幅反弹。 前四天下跌的原因，一是投资者对周五的鲍威尔演讲保持谨慎观望态度， 二是大型零售商的财报不佳，包括塔吉特、沃尔玛等，导致股价大跌。但 周五鲍威尔演讲"放鸽"暗示重启降息，美股三大股指强劲反弹。 本周美元先涨后跌，小幅收跌。周一至周四美元累涨 0.8%，周五美元大跌 0.9%。周三公布 7 月美联储议息会议纪要偏鹰派，周四公布美国 8 月标普 Markit 制造业 PMI 初值 53.3，意外创三年多新高。并且周中多位美联储官 员表态偏鹰，因此前四天美元偏向上行；但周五鲍威尔演讲令美元回落。 2Y 和 10Y 美债收益率均大幅下行。本周美债收益率下行，主因周五杰克逊 霍尔会议上鲍威尔态度转鸽。其次，首次申请失业救济人数意外高于预期， 显示劳动力市场降温，续请失业金人数也升至四年高位。第三，特朗普呼 吁美联储理事库克辞职，被视为施压联储降息的信号。 黄金、原油上涨。本周美债收益率大幅下行，推动黄金和白银价格上 ...

周五晚上，因为美联储主席鲍师傅的一席话，全球金融市场都像被打了鸡血一样，因此，继续帮大家盘盘下周重要的事情，梳理一下，一共 5条。 1、 鲍师傅转鸽，美联储9月真的要 降息 了？ 2、 港股 ，主动外资开始转为净流入了？ 3、 一则看起来 很离谱的公告 ，市值120亿的公司，拿出140亿进行投资理财。 4、 别忘了，下周就是 保险 这轮降费前的最后一周了！ 5、 A股，下周将是财报的密集披露期， 炒作 会降温吗？ 话不多说，直接步入正题。 ...... 一、鲍师傅转鸽，美联储9月真的要降息了？ 在过去两周的周日晚上展望，以及此前写的《 当前市场的三条主线 》中，咱们都一直强调，美联储的降息预期，将是近期投资上最核心的主线 之一。 上周日我们说过，鲍师傅去年8月在央行年会上的一句，"是时候调整政策了"（" Now is the time to adjust policy" ），促成了去年9月，美 联储的50bps大幅降息，也推动了过去一年全球风险资产的普遍上涨。 而周日晚上，鲍师傅再次提到，就业下行风险正在上升，可能需要调整政策立场（".... may warrant adjusting our policy ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal industry is stabilizing in prices due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a recovery in industrial demand during the peak season [1] - Precious metals and industrial metals prices have generally strengthened, with COMEX gold and silver rising by 1.05% and 2.26% respectively, while LME aluminum and copper prices have also seen slight increases [1] - Companies are enhancing their competitiveness through capacity expansion and strategic positioning, with a particular focus on Shengda Resources and Zijin Mining [1] Group 2: Shengda Resources - Shengda Resources reported a 44.24% year-on-year increase in revenue from its non-ferrous metal mining and selection business, reaching 640 million yuan [2] - The company's core mines exhibit high profitability, with a gross margin of 62.64%, showcasing both resource endowment and operational advantages [2] - Shengda has identified approximately 12,000 tons of silver and 34 tons of gold through its seven controlled mining subsidiaries, with ongoing efforts to integrate mining rights at its main mine [2] - The company is progressing with its capacity expansion plans, with new mines expected to gradually release production capacity, supported by the rising metal prices [2] Group 3: Zijin Mining - Zijin Mining has established Fujian Zijin Precious Metals Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 5 billion yuan, extending its business into precious metal smelting and resource extraction [3] - This move aims to enhance the company's industrial chain and synergize with its existing copper and gold operations, improving comprehensive resource development capabilities [3] - Recent large transactions indicate institutional investors' recognition of Zijin Mining's long-term value, with a total of 43 large transactions amounting to 727 million yuan in the past three months [3] - The strategic actions and capital movements of Zijin Mining are positioned to capitalize on the favorable industry cycle, supported by macroeconomic policies and demand recovery [3]