Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the accelerated market for interest rate cut expectations in September, risk - averse assets will be suppressed, while silver, which is positively correlated with risk appetite, will have a catch - up rally, and the increase of silver will be greater than that of gold [2][28] - The US economy is under pressure despite some positive economic data, and the US economic data shows a mixed picture with high economic resilience [3][16] - The RMB exchange rate has good resilience, and its impact on gold is limited, so it is not a key consideration [4][24] Summary by Directory 1. Chapter 1: Market Review - In the short - term, gold and silver may rise synchronously under the impetus of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. In the medium - term, their trends will diverge, with gold in a high - level shock and silver entering an accelerated upward trend. However, the rise of silver will be affected by the short - term fluctuations of gold [10] 2. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting increased the market's bet on a September interest rate cut, and the market fully digested the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the end of the year [13] - US retail sales in July had a relatively large month - on - month increase for two consecutive months, and the year - on - year increase was also significant. The number of initial jobless claims last week reached a new high since June, and the number of continued jobless claims reached the highest level since November 2021. The US August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI initial value reached the highest level since May 2022 [13][15] - Russia is ready to negotiate on the Ukraine issue in various forms, and Putin proposed to raise the level of the direct negotiation delegation between Russia and Ukraine [15] - The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in July, and economic activity growth slowed down in the first half of the year, with inflation slightly high and high uncertainty in the economic outlook [15] 3. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The US economic data shows a mixed picture. Although there are some positive signs in retail sales and manufacturing PMI, the employment situation is deteriorating, and inflation remains high, indicating that the US economy still has high resilience [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The US and the EU reached a new trade agreement, with the US imposing tariffs on some EU goods and the EU making corresponding concessions and procurement plans. Trump and Putin's meeting may have a positive impact on global political stability. Trump also imposed additional tariffs on Indian and some high - tech products [19] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The US employment data is poor, the non - manufacturing index is weak, but the service industry PMI is at a high level. Crude oil prices are affected by production cuts and geopolitical situations, and the prices of US stocks, copper, and crude oil may strengthen further due to the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [20] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate passively tracks the US dollar index. Although China's economic data in July is weak, the inflow of foreign capital and the rise of the stock market support the RMB exchange rate. Its impact on gold is limited [4][24] 4. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The market believes that a September interest rate cut by the Fed is highly likely, and the market will focus on the magnitude of the interest rate cut. Silver will have a catch - up rally, and its increase will be greater than that of gold [2][28]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current market rally is mainly driven by risk appetite, with investors' bullish sentiment leading to continuous capital inflows and forming a positive feedback loop. The correlation between the current market and fundamentals is low. In the absence of policy cooling, the strong market trend is expected to continue [3] - Key factors to watch include domestic policy trends and the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies [4] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - For intraday trading, refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [5] Trend Strategy - Adopt a long - position approach. The core operating ranges for IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are 4262 - 4482 points, 2868 - 3001 points, 6606 - 7049 points, and 7091 - 7569 points respectively [5] Cross - variety Strategy - Given the potential rotation in the market under bullish sentiment, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for cross - variety strategies [6] Group 4: Market Review and Data Global Index Performance - Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.53%, the S&P 500 rose 0.27%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.58%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 2%, Germany's DAX rose 0.02%, and France's CAC40 rose 0.58%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.72% and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.27%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.49% [9] Domestic Index Performance - Since 2025, the ChiNext Index has led the gains among major domestic indices. Last week, all major domestic indices rose, with the ChiNext Index leading the way [7][9] Industry Performance in Indexes - In the CSI 300 Index, the telecommunications and information sectors had significant gains last week. In the CSI 500 Index, the information and telecommunications sectors also performed well [11] Futures Market Performance - Last week, the IF futures contract had the largest increase and the largest amplitude among the major futures contracts. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both rebounded [13][14][15] Index Valuation - As of August 15, the P/E ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 15.89 times, 13.46 times, 11.49 times, 30.33 times, and 41.17 times respectively [20][21] Market Fundamentals - The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are important indicators of market capital inflows. Last week, the capital interest rate rebounded, and the central bank had a net capital injection [23]

Group 1 - In July, gold prices experienced a moderate increase, with London afternoon gold prices rising by 0.3% in USD and Shanghai afternoon benchmark prices increasing by 0.5% in RMB, driven by inflation concerns and multiple risk factors offsetting the negative impact of a stronger dollar [1] - Year-to-date, the RMB gold price has risen over 22%, significantly outperforming most domestic assets [1] - The World Gold Council anticipates that gold jewelry consumption will enter a traditional peak season, potentially improving upstream physical demand, although consumer purchasing power remains a concern [1] Group 2 - In July, the outflow of gold ETFs in the Chinese market amounted to approximately 7 million RMB, with total holdings decreasing by 3 tons to 197 tons, indicating a negative trend in gold ETF demand [4][6] - The decline in gold ETF demand is attributed to improved investor risk appetite following better-than-expected GDP data and strong stock market performance, which has led to increased market sentiment [6] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a slight increase in gold outflow of 3 tons month-on-month and a minor year-on-year increase of 4 tons, although the demand remains significantly below the ten-year average, highlighting ongoing weakness in the jewelry sector [3] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China has announced an increase in gold reserves for nine consecutive months, purchasing 2 tons in July, raising the total gold reserves to 6.8% of foreign exchange reserves [7][8] - In the first half of 2025, gold imports were weak, with net imports in June dropping to 50 tons, a 45% decrease month-on-month, and a total of 323 tons imported in the first half of 2025, marking a relatively low level compared to previous years [9]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration issued a detailed implementation plan for the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, which is expected to stimulate consumption and support domestic demand while potentially delaying overall interest rate cuts [1] - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes maintaining policy continuity and stability, with a focus on solidifying credit support and preventing fund circularity, indicating a shift towards structural regulation rather than an increase in total credit [2] - The current market shows a strong stock performance but weak bond performance, with multiple factors such as tax period cash flow tightening and rising stock market volumes contributing to a downward adjustment in the bond market [3] Group 2 - The bond market's adjustment is limited due to the need for further recovery in domestic demand, and stability in the bond market requires signals of liquidity support from the central bank [3] - The central bank's increased reverse repurchase operations on August 19 showed initial signs of stabilization in the bond market, with attention on the upcoming MLF operations and fluctuations in funding rates [3] - The report highlights the need to address excessive low-price competition in certain industries and promote consumption to achieve reasonable price recovery, which will be a key policy direction moving forward [2]

Macroeconomic Overview - In July, US inflation did not exceed expectations, with the CPI year-on-year at 2.7%, unchanged from the previous value and slightly below the expected 2.8%. The core CPI year-on-year rose to 3.1%, up from 2.9% and above the expected 3% [1] - The PPI data for July showed a significant increase, with a year-on-year rise of 3.3%, surpassing the expected 2.2% and the previous value of 2.3%. The core PPI also increased to 3.7%, exceeding both the expected 3% and the previous 2.6% [1] - Retail sales in July maintained resilience, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, below the expected 0.6% but revised up from a previous 0.6% [1] Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for August recorded an initial value of 58.6, lower than the expected 62 and the previous value of 61.7. The one-year inflation expectation index rose to 4.9%, above the expected 4.4% and the previous 4.5% [2] Market Performance - For the week of August 11-15, major indices showed positive performance, with the S&P Oil & Gas Index up 0.92%, the Nasdaq 100 Index up 0.43%, and the S&P 500 Index up 0.93%. Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, 7 sectors increased, with healthcare leading at 4.62% [3] Investment Direction - US stocks experienced an upward trend, supported by slightly lower July CPI and core CPI, along with PPI exceeding expectations. The earnings per share (EPS) for S&P 500 companies grew by 11% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 4%, indicating relative economic stability in Q2 [5] - The market continues to anticipate interest rate cuts, with expectations remaining stable compared to the previous week. The geopolitical situation has shown signs of easing, which may enhance market risk appetite [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The second - round China - US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one. The TMT sector rose strongly, and the stock index increased with heavy trading volume. However, the improvement in corporate earnings needs to be verified by the upcoming mid - year report data [2]. - Multiple negative factors such as the central bank's mention of "preventing idle funds from circulating" in the second - quarter monetary policy report, the strong performance of the stock market, and the tightening of funds during the tax payment period led to a significant decline in bond futures. The bond market sentiment remains weak [2]. - The meeting of US, Ukrainian, and European leaders brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which increased risk appetite and caused precious metals to rise and then fall. Gold and silver prices are in a range - bound state [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak and volatile state, and the short position of the October contract should be continued to hold [2]. - Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore follows the price fluctuations of steel, while some coal prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are in a narrow - range or weak - range fluctuation, and different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [2]. - The energy and chemical sectors show different trends. Some products are in a range - bound state, while others are facing supply - demand pressures and are recommended for short - selling or other strategies [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends, such as the upward trend of palm oil and the weakening trend of corn [2]. - Special commodities like glass are in a weak state, and new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate need to pay attention to policy and supply - related factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose with heavy volume, but the improvement in earnings needs mid - year report data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6600 at high prices and have a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors led to a decline in bond futures. The bond market is in an unfavorable situation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through call options at the low - price stage after price corrections. Silver is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or build a bullish spread strategy with options [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. The 10 - month contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar should pay attention to the support levels of 3400 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, and the port inventory and port clearance improved. It follows the price fluctuations of steel, and it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the exchange's intervention, the futures price peaked and declined, and some coal prices weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coke**: The sixth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the seventh - round price increase is in progress. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuated downward due to the additional tariff on aluminum. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan and fluctuates within the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan [2]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [2]. - **Nickel**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract fluctuates in a narrow range, with cost support but demand drag, and fluctuates within the range of 12800 - 13500 yuan [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term geopolitical risk is the main factor. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and expand the spread between the October - November/December contracts. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [2]. - **Urea**: The Indian tender news has a certain boost to the market. If there are no more positive factors after the price rebound, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 6600 - 6900 range and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is low, and the cost support is limited. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 4600 - 4800 range and conduct a reverse spread operation on TA1 - 5 at high prices [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term driver. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the 6300 - 6500 range [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production reduction effect is obvious, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at a low price [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply of MEG is gradually returning, and it is expected to follow the fluctuations of commodities. It is in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream buyers are purchasing well, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand pressure is still high, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventory. It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the cost support is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds within the 7200 - 7400 range [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is in a range - bound state, and the supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to hold the seller position of the short - term put option BR2509 - P - 11400 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is in a short - term volatile state [2]. - **PP**: The spot price has little change, and the trading volume has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on the short position in the 7200 - 7300 range [2]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is continuously tightening, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations within 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The cost support is strong, and a long - term bullish expectation remains. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the January contract [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a low - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production release [2]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is emerging, and the futures price is in a weak state. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is rising, and the domestic palm oil price is following the upward trend. It is expected to reach the 10000 - yuan mark in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. It is recommended to reduce the short position established at the previous high price [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market is weak. It is recommended to reduce the short position [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak. It is bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing apples. The main contract is around 8250 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The price is stable. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices and focus on short - term trading [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The industry is in a negative feedback cycle, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to hold the short position [2]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the raw material price increase during the peak production period [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in production capacity [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in policy expectations [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is subject to continuous disturbances, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. It is recommended to be cautious and try to go long with a light position at a low price [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3700 points and overseas indices in the UK, US, and Japan hitting record highs. The strong market is supported by a positive macro - environment, including no significant escalation of trade frictions, no obvious negative policy turn, and positive liquidity expectations before the Fed's September rate cut. The rising stock market has attracted margin trading and new - account funds, forming a positive feedback loop [1]. - The domestic economic supply and demand are both weak in July due to the policy shift towards anti - involution and the weak demand side such as real estate. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report shows a trend of policy shifting towards quality and efficiency, with less emphasis on traditional growth - stabilizing and capital - market - related structural tools. However, the current market risk appetite is strong, and the short - term impact is limited. The market is expected to maintain a bullish pattern, and the trends of relevant variables should be noted [2]. - Factors to watch include domestic policy and economic changes, and the Fed's policy direction [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Spot Market Review - Most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices rose last week. In the CSI 300 index, the information and telecommunications sectors had relatively high increases, while in the CSI 500 index, the financial real - estate and information sectors led the gains [10]. 3.2. Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the IM futures contract had the largest increase and the largest amplitude among the main stock index futures contracts. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both rebounded [12][13][18]. 3.3. Index Valuation Tracking - As of August 15th, the TTM price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 15.89 times, 13.46 times, 11.49 times, 31.81 times, and 43.9 times respectively [21][22]. 3.4. Market Capital Flow Review - The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly - established equity - biased funds are presented. The capital interest rate price rebounded last week, and the central bank had a net capital injection [25]. 4. Strategy Recommendations 4.1. Short - Term Strategy - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4]. 4.2. Trend Strategy - Adopt a bullish mindset. The core operating range of the IF2509 main contract is expected to be between 4083 and 4294 points; for the IH2509 main contract, it is between 2775 and 2903 points; for the IC2509 main contract, it is between 6335 and 6760 points; and for the IM2509 main contract, it is between 6838 and 7299 points. Also, maintain a strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the bond market is currently dominated by risk appetite, leading to a steepening adjustment in yields. This is primarily influenced by the performance of risk assets such as equities and commodities, which have shown a trend of upward movement [3][8][16] - The report highlights four specific scenarios that contribute to the current dominance of risk appetite in the bond market: 1) A trend in risk assets like equities and commodities; 2) A lack of clear direction from policy statements; 3) Interest rates being at historical lows, reducing attractiveness; 4) External market influences affecting sentiment [3][16][21] - The report suggests that if the influence of these factors diminishes, the market will eventually revert to being driven by fundamentals and liquidity conditions. Key indicators to watch include the operational space of monetary policy in the second half of the year and whether social financing (社融) shows signs of a turning point [3][16] Group 2 - The report notes that while there is an increasing expectation of "absence of total easing" in the short term, the core tone of monetary policy remains one of "moderate easing" and "maintaining ample liquidity," indicating that policy space has not been closed off [5][20] - It emphasizes that the urgency for total easing in the third quarter has decreased, with a shift in focus towards structural policies and stabilizing prices. However, the possibility of total policy re-engagement in the fourth quarter remains, especially if the fundamentals come under pressure [5][20] - The report also points out that the current market's expectations for monetary easing are relatively low, suggesting that the likelihood of a significant market adjustment similar to earlier in the year is reduced [5][20][21] Group 3 - The report indicates that the short-term market is influenced by insufficient release of risk appetite and institutional sentiment, leading to weaker performance. However, it cautions against overemphasizing concerns about an upward turning point in interest rates [6][33] - It highlights that the growth rate of social financing is likely to peak in the fourth quarter, and price increases may be a result of financing expansion rather than a sign of a new cycle [6][33] - The report concludes that while the market's expectations for monetary easing are low, the actual probability of easing remains significant, suggesting that interest rates may form a mid-term top after the current pullback [6][33]

Economic Overview - External conditions have improved while internal data has weakened, with inflation (PPI) down 3.6% year-on-year, below market expectations[22] - New loans in July turned negative at -426.3 billion CNY, indicating weakened credit demand from both households and enterprises[22] - Retail sales growth fell from 4.8% in June to 3.7% in July, and fixed asset investment growth dropped to 1.6% year-on-year for January to July[22] Real Estate Market - Second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline deepening from 0.7% to 1.0%, while second and third-tier cities maintained a decline of 0.5%[23] Bond Market Dynamics - Long-term bond yields have risen sharply, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.75% (+5.4bp) and the 30-year yield at 2.00% (+7.3bp)[12] - The market is experiencing a bearish sentiment, with institutions increasingly shorting bonds amid high risk aversion[30] Investment Strategies - The bond market may face three scenarios: potential monetary easing by the central bank, a stock market correction undermining risk appetite, or continued high risk preference leading to a revaluation of bonds[35] - The 10-year government bond yield is seen as a psychological threshold at 1.75%, with a potential for a sharp rise if breached[36] Financial Products and Performance - The scale of wealth management products decreased by 120.6 billion CNY to 31.20 trillion CNY, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards equities[39] - The proportion of wealth management products with negative returns increased to 6.73%, indicating rising risk in the sector[45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the liability growth rate of the real - sector expected to decline. The government aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio, and the monetary policy will generally remain neutral and difficult to be continuously loose. The market is currently affected by risk preference, and the subsequent trends of risk preference, economic recovery, and the US economy need to be focused on [2][3][7] - In the context of the contraction of the national balance sheet, the allocation of financial assets should adopt a dumbbell - shaped strategy. The bond market is the large base, and the stock market is the small head. The stock allocation strategy is dividend plus growth, and the bond allocation strategy is duration plus credit - sinking [25] - In the contraction cycle, the equity - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. Red - dividend stocks with characteristics of non - expansion, good profitability, and survival are recommended [12][67] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In July 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 9.0%, with a lower - than - expected rebound. It is expected to decline to 8.9% in August and further to 8% by the end of the year. The government's liability growth rate is also expected to decline from 15.7% in July to 14.8% in August and 12.5% by the end of the year. The money market has tightened marginally, and the peak of the money market in August was likely in the first week [2][3][21] - **Monetary Policy**: The trading volume of funds decreased last week, and the price was stable. The one - year Treasury yield rose to 1.37%, and the term spread widened. The estimated lower limit of the one - year Treasury yield is 1.3%, the ten - year Treasury yield is about 1.6%, and the thirty - year Treasury yield is about 1.8% [3][22] - **Asset Side**: After a brief stabilization in June, the physical volume data declined again in July. The annual real economic growth target for 2025 is about 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is about 4.9%. Whether this will be the central target for the next 1 - 2 years needs further observation [4][23] 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - **Market Performance Last Week**: The money market tightened marginally, but risk preference increased. Stocks rose, and bonds fell. The equity growth style was dominant, and the stock - bond ratio favored stocks, breaking through the previous high on August 15th [6][26] - **Future Outlook**: The trend of risk preference is uncertain. There are three possible scenarios: range - bound fluctuations, a short - term upward trend, or a fundamental change in the subjective weighting of Chinese profitability. A portfolio of growth - type equity assets and long - term bonds is recommended, with a 70% position in the CSI 1000 Index and a 30% position in the 30 - year Treasury ETF [10][11][29] 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review**: The A - share market rose this week. The communication, electronics, non - bank finance, power equipment, and computer sectors had the largest increases, while the bank, steel, textile and apparel, coal, and public utilities sectors had the largest declines [35] - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of August 15th, the top five crowded industries were electronics, computer, power equipment, machinery, and non - bank finance. The trading volume of the whole A - share market increased this week, with non - bank finance, real estate, and other sectors having the highest growth rates [36][38] - **Industry Valuation and Profitability**: The PE (TTM) of the comprehensive, communication, and other sectors increased the most this week, while the bank, steel, and other sectors declined. Industries with high 2024 full - year profit forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banks, coal, and oil and petrochemicals [41][42] - **Industry Prosperity**: External demand generally declined. The global manufacturing PMI decreased in July, and the CCFI index fell. Domestic indicators such as port throughput and industrial capacity utilization showed mixed trends [46] - **Public Fund Market Review**: In the second week of August, most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of August 15th, the net asset value of active public equity funds was slightly higher than that in Q4 2024 [62] - **Industry Recommendation**: In the contraction cycle, the equity - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. An A + H red - dividend portfolio of 20 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks, mainly concentrated in banks, telecommunications, and other industries, are recommended [12][67]