Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as the US tariff policy ruling, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics in different sectors. Different commodities show different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals [2][5][8][13][16][38][56] - For most commodities, short - term uncertainties exist, and the market is expected to be volatile. Some commodities may have a downward trend due to supply - demand imbalances, while others may be in a state of shock with limited upward or downward space [4][7][10][15][20][39] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Thursday, A - shares opened higher, with major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to 3363.45 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis discount of the main contracts converged [2][3] - News: The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's global tariffs were illegal. The White House may appeal or invoke new legal provisions [3][4] - Funds: On May 29, A - share trading volume increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan [4] - Operation suggestion: The index is expected to continue to oscillate neutrally after short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose [5] - Funds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan. The money market was generally stable [6] - News: The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff policy exceeded his authority, but the implementation of the ruling is uncertain [6] - Operation suggestion: The bond market may oscillate narrowly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and the money market [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market situation: Gold and silver prices rose due to the uncertainty of the US tariff policy and the re - boosting of risk - aversion sentiment. International gold closed at $3317.87 per ounce, up 0.94%, and silver closed at $33.32 per ounce, up 1.09% [8][10] - News: The US federal court blocked Trump's tariff policy, and the Trump administration appealed. The US economy showed signs of slowdown, and the Fed maintained its stance on monetary policy independence [8][9] - Operation suggestion: Gold can use the virtual - value option double - selling strategy, and silver is recommended to sell relatively virtual - value call options [10][11] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot price: As of May 29, the prices of major shipping companies were in a certain range [13] - Index: The SCFIS European Line Index decreased by 1.44% week - on - week, while the US West Line Index increased by 18.90% [13] - Fundamentals: As of May 29, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.6% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US showed certain economic trends [13] - Logic: The futures price rose due to the possible congestion of European ports caused by the US tariff policy, which may lead to tight shipping capacity in August [14] - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate widely between 1800 - 2400 points [15] Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of May 29, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased, and the market procurement sentiment was general [16] - Macro: The short - term macro environment has little change. The key is the US copper import tariff policy and the US economic fundamentals. The current macro factors do not strongly drive copper prices up [17] - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, but domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to increase in May [18] - Demand: The weekly operating rate of copper rod processing decreased, and the terminal demand may be under pressure in Q3 [19] - Inventory: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory decreased slightly [19] - Logic: Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [20] - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [20] Zinc - Spot: On May 29, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was stable, and the market transaction was average [20] - Supply: A zinc mine may stop production in June, but the overall processing fee remains high. The domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase slightly in May [21] - Demand: The operating rates of primary processing industries were relatively stable, but some enterprises were cautious about terminal export orders [22] - Inventory: Domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [22] - Logic: In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - loose cycle. It is recommended to short at high levels and pay attention to zinc ore production and downstream demand changes [23] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [23] Tin - Spot: On May 29, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the market trading was relatively good [23] - Supply: The domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports in April showed different trends [24] - Demand and inventory: The solder operating rate improved in March, but the overall order situation was average. The inventory showed different changes [25] - Logic: Considering supply recovery and weak demand expectations, it is recommended to hold short positions [26][27] - Operation suggestion: Hold short positions [27] Nickel - Spot: As of May 29, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [27] - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level, with an expected production of 35350 tons in May [27] - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was relatively stable, and the demand for stainless steel mills was affected by production adjustments [28] - Inventory: Overseas inventory remained high, while domestic social inventory and bonded area inventory decreased [28] - Logic: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 126000 [29][30] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [30] Stainless Steel - Spot: As of May 29, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends [30] - Raw materials: The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron was stable [30][32] - Supply: The domestic stainless steel production in May is expected to decrease slightly, with a decrease in the 300 - series production [30] - Inventory: Social inventory and futures inventory decreased [31] - Logic: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12600 - 13200 [32] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200 [32] Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of May 29, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the market sentiment was pessimistic [33] - Supply: The production in April decreased slightly, but the production in May is expected to increase slightly. The supply pressure remains [34] - Demand: The overall demand is average, and the demand may face pressure in the off - season [34] - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly [35] - Logic: The market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 56000 - 60000 yuan [36][37] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 56000 - 60000 yuan [37] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rebounded slightly [38] - Supply: The iron element output decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the output of five major steel products increased slightly [38] - Demand: The apparent demand increased slightly, but the domestic demand was in the off - season, and the direct export of steel remained high [39] - Inventory: The steel inventory continued to decrease, while the cold - rolled steel inventory continued to increase [39] - Cost and profit: The profit was stable, with blast furnaces profitable and electric furnaces losing money [39] - Viewpoint: The steel price is expected to be bearish in the long - term, but further decline requires iron ore inventory accumulation [39] Iron Ore - Spot: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased slightly [40] - Futures: The main iron ore contract rose 1.22% to 707 yuan/ton [40] - Basis: The basis of PB powder for the 09 contract was 72.5 yuan/ton [40] - Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased [40] - Supply: The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the arrival volume was relatively low [41] - Inventory: The 45 - port inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory was basically stable [41] - Viewpoint: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate between 700 - 745 yuan/ton [41] Coke - Spot and futures: The coke futures continued to decline, and the second round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills was implemented on May 28 [42] - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke was 7 yuan/ton [42] - Supply: The total coke output decreased slightly [42] - Demand: The coke demand decreased slightly [43] - Inventory: The total coke inventory decreased slightly, with different trends in different sectors [44] - Viewpoint: It is recommended to short the 2509 contract after a rebound and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke [44] Coking Coal - Spot and futures: The coking coal futures continued to decline, and the spot market was bearish [45] - Supply: The production of domestic coking coal decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [45][46] - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased slightly [46] - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory increased [46] - Viewpoint: It is recommended to short the 2509 contract after a rebound and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal [47] Ferrosilicon - Spot: The prices in the main production areas were stable [48] - Futures: On May 29, the 07 contract of ferrosilicon decreased by 2.38% to 5322 yuan/ton [48] - Cost and profit: The cost of ferrosilicon production in different regions was different, and some enterprises were in the red [48] - Supply: The output of ferrosilicon is expected to continue to decline [49][50] - Demand: The demand for ferrosilicon decreased, and the non - steel demand was weak [50] - Viewpoint: The price of ferrosilicon is expected to oscillate weakly [50] Manganese Silicon - Spot: The prices in the main production areas decreased slightly [51] - Futures: On May 29, the 09 contract of manganese silicon decreased by 1.36% to 5530 yuan/ton [51] - Cost: The production cost and profit in different regions were different [51] - Manganese ore: The price of manganese ore was under pressure, and the global shipment decreased slightly [51][52][55] - Supply: The output of manganese silicon increased slightly [52] - Demand: The demand for manganese silicon increased slightly, but the iron water output decreased [53][55] - Viewpoint: The price of manganese silicon is expected to oscillate weakly [55] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [56] - Fundamental news: The global soybean supply is expected to be sufficient, and the inventory will increase significantly [56] - Market outlook: The two - meal market is expected to oscillate, and the soybean meal may face callback risks above 2950 yuan/ton [57][58] Live Pigs - Spot situation: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated slightly [59] - Market data: The breeding profit decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased [59][60] - Market outlook: The pig price is expected to be stable with limited upward and downward space. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [60] Corn - Spot price: The corn prices in different regions were generally stable [61] - Fundamental news: The inventory of corn processing enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of feed enterprises increased [61] - Market outlook: The corn price is expected to oscillate with the shipping rhythm [61]

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月29日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 264900 | 264800 | 100 | 0.04% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 650 | 700 | -50 | -7.14% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 265400 | 265300 | 100 | 0.04% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -111.00 | -135.00 | 24.00 | 17.78% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -10585.57 | -9335.31 | -1250.26 | -13.39% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.09 | 8.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for May 2025 show a slight recovery, with the BCI reading at 50.3, indicating stabilization in the economy due to a combination of financial policies and tariff reductions, although the trend still requires consolidation [1][2][18]. Economic Indicators - The BCI reading for May 2025 is 50.3, up 0.2 points from the previous value, reflecting a recovery in economic conditions since the "9·24" event [2]. - The BCI readings from October 2024 to May 2025 show fluctuations: 46.0 in September 2024, rising to 50.5 in November 2024, then dipping to 48.3 in December 2024, and reaching 54.8 in March 2025 before a slight decline to 50.1 in April 2025 [2]. Microeconomic Conditions - The microeconomic indicators show mixed results: improvements in financing environment, employment, and consumer price expectations, while declines are noted in intermediate goods price expectations, profit expectations, and investment expectations [4]. - The financing environment index improved to 49.1 in April, up from 48.0, indicating a better financing situation influenced by recent financial policies [4]. Employment Trends - Employment rebounded significantly in May, with the enterprise hiring index rising by 1.9 points, suggesting a high elasticity of employment in the external demand supply chain [9]. - The report estimates that foreign trade directly and indirectly supports around 170 million jobs, accounting for over 20% of total employment in the country [9]. Price Indicators - There is a divergence in price indicators: the consumer price expectation index is rising, while the intermediate goods price expectation index is declining, indicating pressure on industrial prices despite improvements in consumer prices [12]. - The profit expectation index continues to decline, reflecting ongoing pressure from low industrial prices, with PPI showing negative growth from January to April 2025 [14]. Investment Sentiment - The enterprise investment expectation index is declining, attributed to uncertainties in external environments and high real interest rates [15]. - Recommendations include lowering nominal interest rates and increasing government investment to stimulate corporate investment [15][16]. Conclusion - The economic situation in May shows improvement compared to April, but the trend needs further consolidation, with key factors such as US-China trade negotiations and local government project accelerations being crucial for future pricing [17][18].

宏观面缺乏惊喜 金属市场交投清淡 金十数据5月28日讯，基本金属价格涨跌互现，伦敦金属交易所三个月期铜上涨0.4%，报每吨9,637.50 美元，三个月期铝价格持平，报每吨2,482.0美元。Britannia Global Markets的分析师尼尔・威尔士在一 份报告中表示，基本金属价格总体呈现相对区间波动特征，铜和铝周涨幅分别仅为0.9%和0.1%，市场 动能疲软且宏观经济催化剂有限。威尔士指出，较低的库存水平为铝价提供了一定支撑，但季节性需求 低迷和缺乏新宏观经济驱动因素的不利因素，使市场保持谨慎态度。 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/05/28 Risks: Macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical situations, and reversals in policy trends. 宏观方面：1—4 月份全国规模以上工业企业利润总额同比增长 1.4%。 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 A ...

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年5月26日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 265400 | 265400 | O | 0.00% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 700 | 750 | -50 | -6.67% | 70/HP | | 长江 1#锡 | 265900 | 265900 | 0 | 0.00% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -135.00 | -140.00 | 5.00 | 3.57% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -9130.99 | -8699.22 | -431.77 | -4.96% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - disturbances are weakening, but the Sino - US game continues, and there is still a possibility of repetition in the tariff issue. The prices of non - ferrous metals continue to fluctuate. The fundamentals of different metals have different impacts on prices, and the prices of each metal are expected to show different trends in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Trend Status**: High - level and strong - side oscillation, with a price range of 76000 - 79500 [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Mine - end disturbances continue, the cost pressure of smelters limits the downward space of prices, but the supply shortage pressure is difficult to change. Consumption in May weakened compared with April but was better than the same period. Social inventory has been slightly accumulating since May, and the spot premium has weakened, but the low - level inventory still supports the premium. The market demand is difficult to recover significantly at the end of the month, but there may be some inventory - building sentiment during the Dragon Boat Festival. The fundamentals still support the copper price, and the Shanghai copper may maintain an oscillating pattern before the festival [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading, and pay attention to the position of near - month contracts [3]. 3.2 Aluminum - **Trend Status**: Continued strong - side oscillation [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The revocation of some mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has also increased. The demand of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises has declined, and the off - season is approaching. However, the unexpected de - stocking of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods, and the 90 - day tariff window period promote export rush. The short - term aluminum price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait - and - see [3]. 3.3 Zinc - **Trend Status**: Oscillation, with a price range of 22000 - 23000 [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The supply of the mine end is loose, and the domestic inventory has decreased. However, the traditional consumption peak season of downstream has passed, and the consumption is weak, with insufficient fundamental support. If the inventory turns, the decline of zinc price may expand [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading [3]. 3.4 Lead - **Trend Status**: Overall strong - side oscillation, with a price range of 16600 - 17100 [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The supply and demand are both weak. The import decline has accelerated the de - stocking of domestic lead, but it is in the consumption off - season, and both smelters and battery enterprises are waiting and watching [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading [3]. 3.5 Nickel - **Trend Status**: Weak - side oscillation, with a price range of 122000 - 127000 for nickel and 12800 - 13200 for stainless steel [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and the cost is firm, but the long - term supply of nickel is excessive. The profit of nickel - iron is in deficit, the demand for stainless steel is average, and the demand for nickel sulfate is flat [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading [3]. 3.6 Tin - **Trend Status**: Side - way oscillation, with a price range of 250,000 - 275,000 [4]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The supply has recovered, and the consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The inventory is at a medium level, and the mine - end resumption expectation is strong. The US tariff policy suppresses the terminal demand of electronic products, and the price fluctuation is expected to increase [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading, and pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [4]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon - **Trend Status**: The downward trend remains unchanged, and it continues to decline at a low level [4]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The weekly output and factory inventory have decreased, and the cost has decreased due to the decline in electricity prices and reducing agent prices. The start - up of industrial silicon furnaces has decreased, and the enterprises in the southwest region will gradually resume production during the wet season, but are restricted by the low silicon price [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait - and - see [4]. 3.8 Carbonate Lithium - **Trend Status**: The downward trend remains unchanged, and it continues to decline at a low level [4]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. The supply is stable, but the short - term demand growth rate is lower than the supply. The import supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to continue the weak - side oscillation [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - selling at high prices, and pay attention to the upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material factory production schedules [4]. 3.9 Macro - economic Data - **China**: In April, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed down, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased, the real estate development investment continued to decline, and the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR both decreased by 10 basis points [13][14][15][16]. - **US**: In May, the Markit manufacturing, service, and comprehensive PMI were all better than expected and in an expansion state. The Trump tax - cut bill passed in the House of Representatives, and Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU from June 1 [17][19][20]. - **Eurozone**: In May, the PMI unexpectedly shrank, and the service industry performance reached the worst level in 16 months [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic cotton supply is tight this year. By the end of August, the commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, lower than 214 million tons in the same period last year and 163 million tons in 2023. The 09 contract is relatively strong. However, the new - cotton supply in 2001 contract is expected to be abundant, with an estimated output of 7.5 billion tons, which limits the price increase. In the short - to - medium term, the upside of cotton prices is restricted. Near June, international situation games and potential setbacks in Sino - US negotiations in July and August may cause price drops. The future cotton price increase is affected by the macro - situation. If the negotiation results are good and the Fed cuts interest rates, cotton prices may continue to rise after a decline, challenging 15000 - 15100. If the negotiation fails, prices will fall further. It is recommended to conduct hedging at the rebound high this year to prevent instability [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Weekly Viewpoints - The domestic cotton supply is tight this year due to factors such as limited quotas, reduced imported cotton, and high monthly consumption. The 09 contract is strong, while the 01 contract is restricted by the expected abundant new - cotton supply. Short - to - medium - term price increases are limited, and the future price trend depends on Sino - US negotiation results and the macro - situation [3]. 3.2. Market Review - This week, domestic cotton futures and spot prices fluctuated. The downstream industry's rigid demand has resilience, with no significant decline in the downstream operating rate and low finished - product inventory. However, the long - term downstream demand expectation is weak, and there is no strong driving force for cotton price increases. Attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand [5]. - The table shows the prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of cotton and related products, including cotton futures, cotton yarn futures, US cotton futures, etc. [6] 3.3. Macroeconomic Situation - In April, China's economy maintained stable growth. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year, the service industry production index rose by 6%, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 5.1%. From January to April, national fixed - asset investment increased by 4% year - on - year, and after excluding real - estate development investment, it increased by 8%. The urban survey unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. From January to April, real - estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.8%. - China's latest LPR decreased. The 1 - year LPR dropped to 3%, and the over - 5 - year LPR dropped to 3.5%, both by 10 basis points. The six major state - owned banks and some joint - stock banks lowered RMB deposit interest rates, with a reduction of 5 to 25 basis points for current, time, and notice deposits. The large - certificate deposit interest rates of many state - owned banks also decreased, with some terms dropping by up to 35 basis points. Beijing and Shanghai lowered mortgage interest rates by 10 basis points following the LPR cut. - The preliminary value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in May improved slightly to 49.2, but the service industry PMI unexpectedly dropped significantly to 48.9, the worst performance in 16 months, dragging the composite PMI down from 50.4 in April to 49.5. The economic activity in France has contracted for 9 consecutive months, and the service industry activities in Germany and France have declined. The money market has increased bets on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates twice this year. - As of the week ending May 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 2000 to 227,000, a four - week low, indicating that the job market remains healthy despite trade - policy uncertainties [10]. 3.4. Industrial Chain - In April, China exported 124 tons of cotton, a 64.9% decrease from the previous month and a 97.7% decrease from the same period last year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export was 2193 tons, a 72.0% decrease from the same period last year. In the 2024/25 season (from September 2024 to August 2025), the cumulative export was 12000 tons, a 22.3% increase from the same period last year. In April 2025, the export volume of cotton yarn was 29400 tons, a 6.17% decrease from the previous month but an 8.42% increase from the same period last year, ranking the highest among the same - period exports in the past five years. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume of cotton yarn in China was 114700 tons, a 27.25% increase from the same period last year, and the cumulative export value was 450 million US dollars, a 14.53% increase from the same period last year. - In April, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products were 108.8 billion yuan, a 2.2% increase from the same period last year but a 12.26% decrease from the previous month. From January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 493.9 billion yuan, a 3.1% increase from the same period last year. - As of the beginning of May, the new - cotton harvest in Brazil in 2025 had not started, and the total production forecast remained at a high level of 3.95 billion tons. In April 2025, Brazil exported 239,000 tons of cotton, basically the same as the previous month. Turkey, Pakistan, and Bangladesh were the main buyers. In this season (from August 2024 to July 2025), the cumulative export volume was 2.383 billion tons, remaining at a historical high level. As of the beginning of May, the processing and inspection of cotton in Brazil in 2024 (corresponding to the USDA 2024/25 season) had been completed. The sales progress was 94%, a 2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The sowing progress of new cotton in 2025 (corresponding to the USDA 2025/26 season) was 100%, and the pre - sale progress was 59%. - Affected by tariff panic in April, the textile and clothing exports in Pakistan decreased briefly. In April 2025, the export value of textile and clothing in Pakistan was 1.221 billion US dollars, a 1.35% decrease from the same period last year and a 14.64% decrease from the previous month. The export volume of cotton yarn was 14,000 tons, a 28.27% decrease from the same period last year and a 35.42% decrease from the previous month. The export volume of cotton cloth was 234 million tons, a 7.31% decrease from the same period last year and a 14.27% decrease from the previous month [12]. 3.5. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's May global cotton supply - demand forecast report, in the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production will decrease year - on - year but remain at the second - highest level in the past five years. Consumption will increase year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the past five years. The reduction in the ending inventory in the new season is limited, and it will still be at the second - highest level in the past five years. - In the 2024/25 season, the global cotton production is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and the consumption expectation is slightly increased, with the increase in consumption greater than that in supply. The ending inventory this season will decrease slightly. The global cotton production is expected to be 26.36 billion tons, a 390,000 - ton increase from the previous month, an increase of 0.1%. The global consumption is expected to be 25.404 billion tons, a 143,000 - ton increase from the previous month, an increase of 0.6%. The global ending inventory is 17.071 billion tons, a 99,000 - ton decrease from the previous month, a decrease of 0.6% [13]. 3.6. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, in terms of total supply, the beginning inventory and production are the same as last month. As of March, China's cumulative imported cotton was 820,000 tons. Due to factors such as tight import quotas and a significant narrowing of the domestic - foreign cotton price difference, the import volume is reduced by 500,000 tons to 1.25 billion tons, and the total supply is reduced by 500,000 tons to 14.91 billion tons. In terms of total demand, in April, affected by Trump's tariff increase, the orders of textile enterprises decreased, but the operating rate remained high, and the cotton consumption was maintained at a high level. In May, production and sales slowed down, but the overall consumption situation was good. After China and the US reached a consensus, the export expectation of textile and clothing improved, and the cotton - spinning consumption expectation is increased by 600,000 tons to 7.81 billion tons. - In the 2025/26 season, in terms of total supply, the beginning inventory is reduced by 1.1 billion tons to 6.7 billion tons. In terms of production, affected by factors such as the prominent cotton - planting income advantage in Xinjiang, the cotton - sowing area increases slightly, and the total output increases by 600,000 tons to 6.79 billion tons. In terms of imports, after the Sino - US economic and trade negotiation reached a consensus, the import volume remains at 1.6 billion tons, and the total supply is reduced by 500,000 tons to 15.09 billion tons. In terms of total demand, after the Sino - US consensus, the long - term export expectation of textile and clothing to the US improves, and the domestic demand market will remain stable under loose monetary policies and consumption - promotion measures. The cotton - spinning consumption expectation is increased by 600,000 tons to 7.74 billion tons [17]. 3.7. US Cotton Exports - From May 9th to May 15th, the net signing volume of US upland cotton in the 2024/25 season was 32,069 tons (including 34,723 tons of signing and 2654 tons of cancellation of previous signing), a 16% increase from the previous week and a 41% increase from the average of the past four weeks. The shipment volume of upland cotton was 57,039 tons, a 24% decrease from the previous week and a 27% decrease from the average of the past four weeks. The net signing volume of Pima cotton this season was 2200 tons, a 91% increase from the previous week, and the shipment volume was 1724 tons, a 21% decrease from the previous week. The signing volume of new - season upland cotton was 1678 tons, and there was no signing of new - season Pima cotton. - In the same week, China's net signing volume of upland cotton this season was 3016 tons (3039 tons of new signing and 23 tons of cancellation of previous signing), and the shipment volume was 1519 tons, a significant increase from the previous week. There was no signing or shipment of Pima cotton [21]. 3.8. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - At the end of April, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.1526 billion tons, a decrease of 687,000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 14.20%, and 183,300 tons lower than the same period last year, a decrease of 4.29%. - At the end of April, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton - textile enterprises showed a slightly decreasing trend. As of the end of April, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 954,200 tons, a decrease of 5100 tons from the end of last month. The disposable cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 1.2884 billion tons, a decrease of 7300 tons from the end of last month. - The total industrial and commercial inventory was 5.1068 billion tons, a decrease of 135,400 tons from the same period last year and a decrease of 692,100 tons from the previous month [24]. 3.9. US Cotton Climate - In the Southwest Cotton Region, on Thursday, the weather in West Texas was sunny and hot, with the highest daytime temperature between 35 - 37°C. The soil - moisture evaporation rate accelerated, and this weather pattern will continue. Although there is no overall drought in the region, the bottom - layer soil moisture is still insufficient. However, it is expected that the probability of thunderstorms will increase in this region with the arrival of a cold air mass this weekend, and the expected precipitation is between 6 - 19mm. Therefore, cotton farmers in the High Plains region are seizing the time to complete sowing as much as possible before the rain. - In the South - Central Cotton Region, on Thursday, the weather in this region changed from cloudy to sunny, and the temperature was close to the seasonal level, with the highest daytime temperature around 27°C. Currently, the wet soil in the local area is gradually drying, and the sowing operation is resuming. The soil moisture content in the Delta region is close to saturation, and the local area urgently needs a period of sunny and warm weather to improve the growth conditions of cotton plants and allow cotton farmers to complete the sowing operation [27]. 3.10. Xinjiang Region - On the 23rd, there was light rain (snow in high - altitude areas) in some areas of the western part of Northern Xinjiang, Tacheng region, Tianshan Mountains, western mountainous areas of Southern Xinjiang, the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains, and northern mountainous areas of Hami. Among them, there was moderate to heavy rain in some local areas of the Ili River Valley, western mountainous areas of Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, and southern mountainous areas of Kashgar. There were about level - 5 easterly winds in the northern part of Tacheng region, western part of Altay region, Urumqi, Changji Prefecture, and northern part of Hami. Among them, the wind force in the Laofengkou and Mayitas wind areas of Tacheng region, the Naohai wind area of Altay region, and the Wulapo and Hongyanchi wind areas of Urumqi reached level 7 - 8, with gusts of level 9. There were about level - 5 easterly winds in the Southern Xinjiang Basin, with gusts of level 7, accompanied by varying degrees of sand - dust weather. - From the 23rd to the 25th, there is a high possibility of short - term heavy precipitation, thunderstorms, gales, hail and other severe convective weather in some local areas of the mountainous areas of the Ili River Valley, Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, southern mountainous areas of Tacheng region, mountainous areas of Changji Prefecture, and northern mountainous areas of Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture. Precautions should be taken against severe convective weather, mountain floods and geological disasters. - In the next three days, the strong winds in the wind gaps of Northern and Eastern Xinjiang and the sand - dust weather in Southern Xinjiang will have an adverse impact on tourism, agriculture and animal husbandry, and transportation. Precautions should be strengthened [29][31]. 3.11. Warehouse Receipts and Non - Commercial Positions - As of May 23rd in the 2024/25 season, the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,359, with 327 valid forecasts, and the total warehouse receipts were 11,686, a decrease of 227 from the previous week. - As of May 13th, the net long position of non - commercial futures and options in the ICE cotton futures market was - 22,396 contracts, a decrease of 7850 from the previous week. The net long position of non - commercial futures only was - 17,543 contracts, a decrease of 7467. The net long position of the commodity - index fund was 60,702 contracts, an increase of 682 [34]. 3.12. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Basis - This week, cotton prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and cotton - yarn prices fluctuated. - The current cotton basis is 1198 yuan, an increase of 11 yuan from the previous week. - The current cotton - yarn basis is 870 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous week [38]. 3.13. Domestic - Foreign Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Differences - The domestic - foreign cotton price difference has narrowed.

Economic Growth - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative, indicating a decline in economic momentum[1] - Index B decreased, with investment and real estate sectors showing a downturn while consumer sector remained stable[1] - Seasonal analysis shows Index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly post-Spring Festival, but this week it fell by 0.43, underperforming historical averages[1] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decline by approximately -1.0% month-on-month in May, while non-food prices are projected to decrease by -0.2%, leading to an overall CPI decline of -0.4%[2] - The PPI is anticipated to drop by -0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of -3.1%[2] Market Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of May 30, 2025, is 2.28%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,099.44[20]

Group 1 - The glass futures market is experiencing a downward trend with the main contract trading at 1015.00 CNY/ton, showing a decline of approximately 1.57% [1] - Current market sentiment is weak, with no significant positive support for glass prices, leading to a wide fluctuation around the bottom levels [1] - The real estate sector is still in an adjustment cycle, with a significant year-on-year decrease in housing completion area, which negatively impacts glass demand [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is affected by a sell-off in US bonds and a decline in US stocks, which lowers market risk appetite and negatively impacts commodity market sentiment [2] - The glass market faces a fundamental contradiction between supply contraction and demand decline, with downstream demand growth insufficient and slow payment issues prevalent [2] - Industry inventory levels are at a three-year high, leading to significant pressure on shipments, and the market is expected to remain weak as the rainy season approaches [2]