Report Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The copper market has a supply - demand slump, and it's recommended to wait and see or execute an option combination [2]. - The aluminum market is trending strongly, and the alumina market needs large - scale production cuts to stabilize. Cast aluminum alloy shows weak seasonal performance [3]. - The zinc market is expected to consolidate around 23,800 yuan, and it's in a rebound pattern [4]. - The lead market has limited rebound space and is expected to stay within 17,000 - 17,800 yuan [6]. - The nickel and stainless - steel market is dominated by policy sentiment, and a long - position strategy is recommended [7]. - For the tin market, continue to hold the call option with an execution price of 350,000 yuan [8]. - The lithium carbonate market has a slow de - stocking speed and a rising price center [9]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the polysilicon market is in a high - level shock [10][11]. Summary by Metal Copper - On the first trading day of 2026, Shanghai copper rose with increased positions, breaking 100,000 yuan. The SMM spot copper price was adjusted to 100,575 yuan, and the social inventory increased by 1.87 million tons to 25.76 million tons. The copper market has a weak supply - demand situation. Consider an option combination of selling a call at 104,000 yuan and buying a put at 98,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rose, with increased spot discounts and a 2.4 - million - ton increase in social inventory. The aluminum market has a bullish trend, and it's advisable to go long based on the 40 - day line. The casting aluminum alloy has a weak seasonal performance. The alumina market is in significant surplus, and short - term price decline slows down, while mid - term stabilization awaits large - scale production cuts [3]. Zinc - In January, the TC of zinc concentrate decreased, and domestic smelters continued maintenance. After the holiday, downstream consumption recovered, driving the price up. The spot market is chaotic, and the price is expected to consolidate around 23,800 yuan, with a rebound pressure range of 24,000 - 24,200 yuan/ton [4]. Lead - The supply pressure of lead is small, and post - holiday consumption is recovering. However, the profit of recycled lead is improving, and overseas surplus is affecting the domestic market. The price is expected to stay between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan [6]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is strong, with active trading. Upstream price rebounds, and social inventory of stainless steel decreases. A long - position strategy is recommended [7]. Tin - On the first trading day, Shanghai tin rebounded. Pay attention to the production of low - grade mines and the seasonal risk of Indonesian tin exports. Continue to hold the call option of the 2602 contract with an execution price of 350,000 yuan [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong, with limited supply from upstream and some demand from downstream. The total inventory decreases, but the de - stocking speed slows down, and the price center rises [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures declined slightly. Supply is expected to decrease by about 2 million tons in January, and demand from organic silicon and polysilicon is weakening. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price increase drives the futures up. The price increase is driven by the cost of silver auxiliary materials, but the terminal demand is weak, and the market is in a stockpiling state, with high - level shocks in the short term [11].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The national live - hog spot price has shifted upwards before the festival, but there is still an expectation of weakening after the festival due to supply - demand dynamics [5]. - The corn market is in a state of supply - demand game in the short term, and the futures market should be treated with a short - term trading mindset [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Live - hog - Futures: Last week, the live - hog futures opened slightly higher. The LH2603 contract closed at 11,795 yuan/ton, up 1.81% from the previous week's settlement price [5]. - Spot: The national average price of outer three - yuan live hogs was 12.24 yuan/kg, up 0.61 yuan/ton week - on - week. As of January 2nd, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 34.59 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 95.52 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 48.35 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 114.35 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.37, up 0.35 week - on - week [5]. - Market trend: Before the festival, the supply decreased and the market was active, with strong price - holding sentiment. After the festival, the supply pressure is limited at the beginning of the month, but the supply - demand situation may lead to a weakening price [5]. Corn - Futures: Last week, the corn futures rose and then fell. The C2603 contract closed at 2,226 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous week's settlement price [6]. - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,351.57 yuan/ton, up 12.94 yuan/ton week - on - week. Port prices showed different trends, with some remaining flat and some falling [6]. - Consumption: From December 25th to 31st, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 138.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41 tons. The processing volume, production, and operating rates of corn starch and corn alcohol enterprises all decreased [7]. - Inventory: As of December 31st, 2025, the total inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 349.4 tons, with an increase of 3.43% [7]. - Market trend: The spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. The selling pace of farmers slowed down, but the continuous auction of imported corn supplemented the supply. Deep - processing enterprises had inventory replenishment needs but limited purchasing power for high - priced corn, resulting in a supply - demand game [8].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract for aluminum in Shanghai has experienced a significant increase of 4%, currently priced at 23,650.00 yuan per ton [1]

期货研究报告 2026年01月05日 生猪期货：反弹乏力、震荡整理 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周生猪期现货货呈 "先强后弱、北涨南跌" 格局，期货主力震荡偏强、现货 节前冲高后随腌腊需求退潮回落，养殖端挺价与出栏节奏调整主导短期波动，整体处于底部博弈阶段。 图 1： 主力合约基差 元/吨 供应端：集团企业12月出栏完成度101.77%，1月计划环比降2.96%，养殖端挺价情绪浓，出栏节奏放缓， 二次育肥增多，短期供应减少。需求端：节前腌腊需求释放支撑价格，元旦后需求转弱，屠宰企业采购积 极性下降，北方消费韧性强于南方。 支撑因素：养殖端缩量挺价，集团出栏计划下调，二次育肥入场，北方消费支撑，猪粮比回升至盈亏 平衡线附近。压制因素：南方腌腊需求退潮，大体重猪源消化困难，市场整体供应仍充足，元旦后终端消 费转弱。分歧点：短期挺价与中期供应压力的博弈，北方消费韧性与南方需求疲软的区域分化，期货近弱 远强反映的预期差异。 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控动态等。 | 生猪 | 单位 | 最新一 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 0.95%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，利多因素发酵支撑矿价高位运行，但供应居高不下，而需求改善受 限，基本面表现偏弱，上行驱动不强，预计矿价维持高位震荡运行态 势，关注钢厂补库情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业格局不一，钢矿强弱分化 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 0.74%日跌幅 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空僵持，煤焦低位震荡 核心观点 焦炭：节前焦煤现货暂稳运行，焦企利润无明显改善，生产积极性一般。 下游钢厂年末减产过后，进入新一年度将开始逐渐复产，铁水产量回升的 速度和幅度或是焦炭期货短期走向的重要影响因素。整体来看，下游复产 和冬储或给焦炭价格带来一定支撑，预计主力合约下跌存一定阻力，但能 否向上反弹仍需关注需求改善情况以及政策端有无新增利好。 焦煤：进入新一年度，此前因完成年度生产目标而停产、减产的煤矿将陆 续复产，焦煤产量或边际回升，叠加进口量维持高位，焦煤供应压力依然 存在。不过，元旦过后，下游钢厂也存有复产预期，预计将带动上游焦 煤、焦炭等原材料需求好转。整体来看，1 月焦煤预计将迎来供需两增局 面，上下游复产节奏或是市场短期博弈焦点，现阶段焦煤仍缺乏向上持续 性驱动，价格或维持低位震荡运行，密切关注煤炭产业政策。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话： ...

2026年1月5日 周报 期货研究报告 甲醇：港口库存高位上升，震荡运行 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周港口甲醇市场继续走强，其中江苏价格波动区间在2120-2240元/吨，广东价 格波动在2100-2190元/吨。外轮卸货较为顺畅，港口甲醇库存继续累积，前期利空出尽，加之进口量存减量 预期，提振市场偏强运行。内地甲醇价格延续下滑，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1800-1845元/吨； 下游东营接货价格波动区间2100-2125元/吨。受元旦小长假临近、运费坚挺影响，上游为促出货主动降价， 内蒙古出厂跌至新低；虽买盘逢低刚需采购，但交投氛围清淡。前期快速下行后，受补空、刚需补货及内蒙 古部分烯烃询价带动，市场情绪回暖，上游多数竞拍溢价成交，买盘跟进改善，放量良好。局部推涨后新单 趋缓，以消化合同量为主。 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气落地，1月份港口到货预 期下降，本周甲醇下游整体需求预计有所上升。甲醇供应充裕，港口库存高位上升。预计甲醇价格近期震荡 运行，05合约上方压力23 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current national cotton inspection volume in the domestic market has exceeded 6 million tons, with relatively sufficient supply. The ginning mills' cotton processing is nearing completion. Downstream textile enterprises have stable orders for medium - and high - count yarns, mostly making just - in - time purchases. Some regional warehouse inventories have slightly decreased, with overall good outbound shipments. It is expected that the national commercial inventory will still increase. However, in 2026, the expectation of a reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang is rising, and the new cycle expectation of target price subsidies provides a bottom support, so there is a continuous upward driving force for short - term cotton prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 14,655, up 70; cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 180,066, down 1,730; main - contract cotton positions (daily, lots): 889,861, up 29,136; cotton warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 6,118, up 406 - Cotton yarn main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 20,575, down 10; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 2,248, down 130; main - contract cotton yarn positions (daily, lots): 18,643, down 947; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 19, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B, daily, yuan/ton): 15,615, up 30; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s, daily, yuan/ton): 21,200, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff, daily, yuan/ton): 12,445, down 477; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s, daily, yuan/ton): 20,961, down 12; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty, daily, yuan/ton): 13,633, down 297; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s, daily, yuan/ton): 22,288, up 70 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,585, down 30; industrial inventory of cotton (national, monthly, million tons): 85, up 6.5 - Cotton import quantity (monthly value, monthly, million tons): 12, up 3; cotton yarn import quantity (monthly value, monthly, tons): 150,000, up 10,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 1,982; commercial inventory of cotton (national, monthly, million tons): 468.36, up 175.3 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn (monthly, days): 26.33, up 0.21; inventory days of grey fabric (monthly, days): 32.34, up 0.37 - Cloth output (monthly value, monthly, billion meters): 28.1, up 1.9; yarn output (monthly value, monthly, million tons): 203.9, up 3.8 - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories (monthly value, monthly, million US dollars): 11,593,686, up 590,205.57; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products (monthly value, monthly, million US dollars): 12,275,733, up 1,017,314.08 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton (%): 15.07, up 1.78; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton (%): 15.04, up 1.78 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 8.89, down 0.07; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 6.9, down 0.31 [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 23, 2025, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 80,440 lots, a decrease of 2,078 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 112,073 lots, a decrease of 9,045 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 31,633 lots, a decrease of 6,967 lots from the previous week, with a slight reduction in net short positions - The sowing progress of Brazilian cotton is smooth, significantly faster than the five - year average. As of the week of December 27, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian cotton in the 2025/26 season was 25.1%, compared with 16.9% in the previous week and a five - year average of 15.6% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term supply of methanol is relatively abundant, and the inventory is expected to increase overall in the winter due to weak demand expectations. The port inventory continued to accumulate last week but is expected to decline from high levels in January due to expected import reduction. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate decreased slightly last week, but there is an expectation of an increase. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2190 - 2280 in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 43 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 773,584 lots, an increase of 42,196 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 128,251 lots, a decrease of 21,279 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 6,648, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2170 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1857.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 312.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 257 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 256 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 63 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.64 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.07 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 104.71 tons, an increase of 3.98 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 43.03 tons, an increase of 2.51 tons. The methanol import profit is - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan. The monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 422,600 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 90.31%, a decrease of 0.93% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 38.24%, a decrease of 4.19%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 3.6%, a decrease of 3.49%. The operating rate of acetic acid is 80.3%, an increase of 2.71%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, unchanged. The operating rate of olefins is 87.46%, a decrease of 1.8%. The methanol - to - olefins disk profit is - 1115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 16.39%, a decrease of 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.44%, a decrease of 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.85%, a decrease of 0.76%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.85%, a decrease of 0.77% [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 31, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 42.26 tons, a 4.61% increase; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered was 18.30 tons, a 5.48% decrease. The total methanol port inventory in China was 147.74 tons, an increase of 6.49 tons, with both East and South China ports accumulating inventory. The domestic methanol - to - olefins device capacity utilization rate was 88.66%, a decrease of 0.02%. Recently, the domestic methanol production loss from maintenance and production cuts is less than the output increase from recovery, leading to an overall increase in production [3]

热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/1/5 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,248 | -22↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1294526 | +26969↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 28,599 | +15719↑ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -23 | 0.00 | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 132188 | 0.00 HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 144 | -4↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,290.00 | -20.00↓ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,250.00 | -10.00↓ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,330.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,170.00 | -10.00↓ | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 42.00 | + ...