1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market has a supply - tightening expectation, but new - year domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is weakening in the off - season. The sugar market has a complex situation with supply increase expectations in the new season and import pressure on domestic prices. The pulp market has a supply - abundant situation and weak downstream demand [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,720 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,957 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,020 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 19, the US net signed 6,214 tons of upland cotton this year and shipped 42,000 tons, with 0 tons net - signed to China and 1,882 tons shipped [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the June USDA report cut 25/26 global cotton production and consumption, with a decrease in ending stocks. US cotton growing areas have more rainfall, but the seedling condition has worsened. Domestically, commercial inventory is de - stocking, but new - year planting area is stable or increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] Strategy - Neutral. Uncertain tariff policies, weather - induced short - term strength, but new - year high - yield expectations and weakening demand create upward pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,790 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (+0.57%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,890 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% from August 1, 2025 [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures were strong. Brazilian new - season supply is expected to increase, but there may be a short - term rebound. Domestic sugar sales are fast, but import volume in July may suppress the rebound [4] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar follows the international market, and attention should be paid to Brazilian estimates and domestic import rhythm [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,066 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The decline of imported wood pulp prices slowed down, and downstream paper mills' purchasing enthusiasm did not improve [5] Market Analysis - Pulp futures oscillated at a low level. The suspension of a delivery product caused market fluctuations, but the supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [6] Strategy - Neutral. The 09 contract is mainly priced by certain pulp types, and the market lacks positive drivers, so prices may stay at the bottom [7]

2025 年 06 月 27 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆小幅收跌，连粕或偏弱震荡 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 豆一：豆类跌势放缓，盘面偏弱震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4150 | -36（-0.86%） 4150 | | -2 （-0.05%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2936 | -73（-2.43%） 2940 | | -11 （-0.37%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1016.25 | -2.0（-0.20%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 287.2 -3.2 | n a （-1.10%） | | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2880～2900， 较昨-40或-20； 80， 持平； M2601+60/+ ...

油料日报 | 2025-06-27 大豆供应增量终端消费较弱，价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4150.00元/吨，较前日变化-19.00元/吨，幅度-0.46%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07+130，较前日变化+119，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周三，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货连续第四日下跌，其中基准期约收低1.85%，主要原因 是美国中西部地区天气转好，关键报告出台前交易商选择避险结利。截至收盘，大豆期货下跌14.75美分到21.50美 分不等，其中7月期约下跌21.50美分，报收1025.25美分/蒲;8月期约下跌20.75美分，报收1029.50美分/蒲;11月期约 下跌18.50美分，报收1018.50美分/蒲。6月27日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.14 元/斤，较昨日涨0.05元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日涨 0.04元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日涨0.04元/斤；黑龙 江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Industrial silicon - Interval operation, upstream sell - hedge on rallies; Polysilicon - Neutral [2][8] - Inter - month spread: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Cross - variety: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Spot - futures: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Options: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] Core Views - Industrial silicon futures prices are relatively strong, affected by the rising sentiment of coking coal and the news of production cuts by a leading northwest enterprise. However, with increasing supply and high inventory, the rebound space is limited [1][2]. - Polysilicon futures rebounded, but the fundamentals are weak with high inventory, increasing supply after southwest restart, and possible decline in consumption. The market is easily affected by capital sentiment and policy disturbances [3][6]. Market Analysis - Industrial Silicon - On June 26, 2025, the main contract 2509 of industrial silicon futures opened at 7600 yuan/ton and closed at 7720 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 321342 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 27 was 53234 lots, a decrease of 29 lots from the previous day [1]. - Spot prices remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1]. - The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas on June 26 was 54.2 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons from the previous week. The inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 12.8 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons, and that in social delivery warehouses was 41.4 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons [1]. - The price of silicone DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton, and the price was temporarily stable, with mainly rigid - demand transactions [1]. Market Analysis - Polysilicon - On June 26, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures rebounded significantly, opening at 30745 yuan/ton and closing at 31715 yuan/ton, a 3.46% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 77132 lots, and the trading volume was 225035 lots [3]. - Spot prices remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, with the polysilicon inventory at 27.00 tons, a 3.05% increase, and the silicon wafer inventory at 20.11GW, a 7.30% increase. The weekly polysilicon output was 23600.00 tons, a decrease of 3.67%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.44GW, an increase of 4.10% [3]. Market Analysis - Silicon Wafer and Battery - Silicon wafer prices: Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 0.87 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.23 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.02 yuan/piece [5]. - Battery prices: High - efficiency PERC182 battery was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery was 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery was 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.70 yuan/W [5]. Factors to Monitor - The resumption of production and new capacity commissioning in the northwest and southwest regions [4]. - Changes in the operating rate of polysilicon enterprises [4]. - Policy disturbances [4]. - Macroeconomic and capital sentiment [4]. - The operating rate of silicone enterprises [4]. - The impact of industry self - discipline on upstream and downstream operations [8]. - The impact of futures listing on the spot market [8]. - The impact of capital sentiment [8]. - The impact of policy disturbances [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [3][8] Core Views - The apple market shows stable but light trading. The reduction expectation has weakened after the bagging stage. Attention should be paid to the game between low inventory and weak demand, as well as the actual bagging data and weather changes [2][3] - The红枣 market has a general trading atmosphere in the sales areas. The high - temperature and dusty weather in the production areas may affect fruit - setting. The new - season growth has potential risks, and the market is sensitive to weather changes [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract was 7,726 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (+0.47%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commodity late Fuji was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose. The bagging quantity is similar to last year. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply of seasonal fruits suppresses apple sales. The inventory is low, but there is a risk of price decline due to quality issues [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance, focusing on the game between low inventory and weak demand and the post - bagging production data [3] Red Dates (红枣) Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the红枣 2509 contract was 9,630 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton (-0.62%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fell. The trading atmosphere in the sales areas is general. The high - temperature and dusty weather in the production areas may affect fruit - setting. The futures price has rebounded recently, and the multi - empty game is expected to intensify [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral stance, closely monitoring the weather conditions during the critical growth period of new red dates [8]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-27 双焦显著去库，期货价格反弹 钢材：淡季表需稳定，成本支撑仍在 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于2973元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3103元/吨。现货方面，根据钢联数据显示，五大材 钢材库存去化暂停，仅螺纹库存去化继续，表需微增。昨日，全国建材成交9.92万吨。 综合来看：螺纹方面，本周产量继续回升，库存小幅去化，淡季需求表现稳定。热卷方面，库存环比回升，产量 维持高位，热卷价格面临出口及国内消费挑战。整体来看，双焦超跌后叠加安全月检查，成本支撑仍在，且临近 国内宏观政策窗口期，钢材价格维持震荡。关注后续成材淡季需求及库存表现。 策略 单边：无 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：铁水产量微增，矿价小幅回升 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅上涨。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于705.5元/吨，涨幅0.64%。 现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅上涨，贸易商报价积极性一般，交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按 需补库为主。需求端，本期日均铁水产量242.29万吨， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity, which can be regarded as a form of short - term investment guidance: - **Positive Outlook**: Rubber (Trend intensity: 1) [13] - **Negative Outlook**: PP (Trend intensity: -1), Benzene (Trend intensity: -1) [37][58] - **Neutral Outlook**: Other commodities such as PX, PTA, MEG, etc. (Trend intensity: 0) [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - **PX, PTA**: Cost collapses, valuations decline, and month - spread reverse arbitrage is recommended. For PTA, the market is turning into a stockpiling pattern, and the long - PX short - PTA position should be held [11]. - **MEG**: The upside space may be limited. With the return of Iranian ethylene glycol plants and the concentrated restart of domestic coal - based plants, ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be oscillating strongly due to factors such as the recovery of overseas tapping operations and changes in import volume [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the medium term, due to high supply and supply growth exceeding demand growth, the fundamental pressure is still high [16]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a weak oscillation state, with domestic factory and social inventories accumulating [20]. - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it will oscillate. Although geopolitical issues are uncertain, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak [33]. - **PP**: The spot market oscillates, and the trading volume is average. The trend is weak due to factors such as weak demand and low trading enthusiasm [37]. - **Caustic Soda**: The near - term contract will make up for the premium, and there will be a short - term rebound. In the second half of the year, the high - profit and high - output pattern will affect the market, and shorting the profit of caustic soda will be the main strategy [39]. - **Pulp**: It will oscillate. The import pulp market shows a decline in both futures and spot prices, affected by factors such as weak demand and high inventory [43]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with minor price adjustments in some regions [48]. - **Methanol**: It will oscillate in the short term. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the market is affected by macro factors and fundamentals [50]. - **Urea**: It will oscillate in the short term. In the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions [57]. - **Benzene**: It will oscillate in the short term. In the second half of the year, the supply will increase significantly, and the demand will be weak, leading to a decline in profit [60]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, and it is expected to be weakly adjusted in the short term [64]. - **LPG**: The spot is firm, and the market structure is strengthening. The market is affected by factors such as changes in Saudi CP expectations and device maintenance [66]. - **PVC**: It is strong in the short term but has limited upside space. The high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the export sustainability is to be observed [78]. - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session adjusts narrowly, and the short - term volatility decreases. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weak in the short term, and the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level [81]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It will oscillate in the short term, affected by factors such as freight rates and market supply and demand [83]. 3. Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: An East China factory's 1 million - ton PX unit has started a one - month maintenance. The PX price rebounded, and the night - session naphtha price declined [8]. - **PTA**: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 - million - ton unit reduced its load, and Honggang Petrochemical's 2.5 - million - ton unit was put into production. The PTA market is turning into a stockpiling pattern [9]. - **MEG**: An Iranian 450,000 - ton/year MEG unit plans to restart this weekend, and another 500,000 - ton/year unit plans to restart next week. The overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland has decreased [9]. Rubber - The trading center of the imported rubber market has weakened, and the domestic natural rubber spot price has adjusted narrowly. The overseas tapping operations are gradually recovering, and the raw material purchase price has decreased [14]. - In May 2025, China's natural rubber import volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises has changed [15]. Synthetic Rubber - As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese high - cis polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises increased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased slightly [16]. - In the short term, due to geopolitical instability and strong macro - sentiment, the polybutadiene rubber is expected to oscillate [18]. Asphalt - As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factories increased by 2.5% compared with June 23, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses increased by 0.4% [31]. - The domestic asphalt production increased by 2.4% week - on - week and 21.5% year - on - year [31]. LLDPE - This week, the domestic PE market mostly weakened. The Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the crude oil market has fallen back, affecting the market sentiment of related products [32]. - The supply pressure of PE in the 2025 09 contract is high, and the demand is weak, especially in the shed film industry [33]. PP - This morning, the domestic PP market was narrowly sorted. The PP futures' upward trend had limited support for the spot market, and downstream factories were cautious in purchasing [37]. Caustic Soda - The purchase price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong has been continuously reduced, and most enterprises' prices have followed the decline [39]. - The caustic soda futures price has continued to fall due to the reduction of the purchase price by Shandong alumina enterprises. However, the 07 contract will face delivery, and the short - term market may rebound [39]. Pulp - This period, the imported pulp market has seen a decline in both futures and spot prices. The reasons include the decline in the futures price, weak demand, and high supply pressure [46]. Glass - The price of domestic float glass original sheets was generally stable, with slight adjustments in some areas [48]. Methanol - The spot price of the port methanol market has mostly increased, and the inventory has increased significantly. The inland market has continued to rise, and some buyers have actively replenished their stocks [52]. Urea - As of June 25, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 3.53% week - on - week. The domestic urea market is affected by sentiment and is weakly oscillating [56]. - In the short term, the urea spot price shows some resilience, but in the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions [57]. Benzene - In 2025, the supply pressure of pure benzene is high, with increased domestic production and imports. The demand structure has changed significantly, and the inventory remains high [59]. - In the first half of the year, benzene maintained a high - profit, high - start - up, and low - inventory pattern, but in the second half of the year, the pattern will reverse [60]. Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market continues to be weak, with a downward trading center. The supply is oscillating and decreasing, and the downstream demand is lukewarm [64]. LPG - On June 25, 2025, the expected prices of Saudi CP in July and August decreased. The PDH, MTBE, and alkylation start - up rates have changed [68]. - There are many domestic LPG factory and PDH device maintenance plans [74]. PVC - The domestic PVC spot market price has been narrowly adjusted. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed, with increased enterprise maintenance, low demand, high inventory, and mainly export delivery [78]. - The high - output and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term, and the export sustainability is to be observed [78]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The night - session of fuel oil adjusted narrowly, and the short - term volatility decreased. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weak in the short term, and the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level [81]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) will oscillate in the short term. There are changes in freight rates, such as the increase in the SCFIS European route and the decrease in the SCFIS US - West route [83].

2025年06月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治停火 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：伦铜现货走强，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：偏强运行 | 7 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | 7 | | 铝合金：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 锌：短期偏强 | 9 | | 铅：偏强运行 | 10 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 11 | | 镍：远端镍矿端预期松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价低位震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：仓单增加但总量偏低，短期走势偏震荡 | 15 | | 工业硅：减产消息扰动，关注上方空间 | 17 | | 多晶硅：市场情绪发酵，亦关注上方空间 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：现货情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：现货情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：情绪释放，震荡偏强 | 24 | | 焦煤：检查扰动持续发酵，震荡偏强 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放， ...

2025年06月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：关注成本支撑 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆小幅收跌，连粕或偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：豆类跌势放缓，盘面偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡调整 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理为主 | 8 | | 棉花：震荡偏强 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：逐步布局远月空单 | 11 | | 生猪：震荡调整 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限 豆油：关注成本支撑 | | | 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 27 日 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日盘） 8,360 | 涨跌幅 0.19% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,378 | 涨跌幅 0.22% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,000 | ...

2025年06月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：现货情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：现货情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：情绪释放，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：检查扰动持续发酵，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：主力临近交割，博弈加剧 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 27 日 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 705. 5 | 3.0 | 0. 43% | | | ...