地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 13 日 热点品种 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，沙特将 7 月阿拉伯轻质原油对亚洲的官方售价下调 20 美分 /桶，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加拿大阿尔伯塔省 的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协议谈判陷入僵局， 美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，特朗普表示对达成伊核协议的信心减弱，美方授权 美军家属可自愿撤离中东，缩减在伊拉克的美国使团规模，伊朗防长表示如果核 谈判失败并与美国冲突，伊朗将打击该地区的美军基地。以色列开始袭击伊朗， 中东地缘风险急剧升温，有报道称伊朗高级议员表示与美国的会谈将不会举行。 美国石油钻井数量下降幅度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原 ...

新华财经北京6月13日电（左元、张瑶）13日，国际油价大涨，SC原油、高硫燃料油涨超7%，低硫燃料油涨超5%，液化石油气、甲醇涨超4%，对二甲苯、 苯乙烯、沥青、PTA涨超3%，瓶片、短纤、鸡蛋涨超2%，塑料 、黄金、合成橡胶、棕榈油、乙二醇等涨超1%；纯碱、烧碱、工业硅跌超2%，碳酸锂、氧 化铝、沪锌、玻璃、纸浆跌超1%。 截至13日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1378.02点，较前一交易日上涨15.89点，涨幅1.17%；中证商品期货指数收报1908.83点，较前一交易日上涨 22.39点，涨幅1.19%。 地缘风险驱动原油系集体大涨 SC原油、燃料油和甲醇一度触及涨停 由于以色列袭击伊朗引发市场对中东石油供应可能中断的担忧，国际油价大幅拉涨，带动内盘原油系相关品种13日强劲上涨，其中SC原油、燃料油和甲醇 盘中更是一度触及涨停，午后涨幅有所收窄，但SC原油和燃料油主力合约终盘仍分别收涨7.90%和7.48%。低硫燃料油（LU）、液化石油气（LPG）和甲醇 主力合约也分别录得5.19%、4.68%和4.14%的涨幅。 国际油价今日出现多年来最大单日百分比涨幅，反映出市场对于中东石油正常生产格局的担忧 ...

以下文章来源于巴顿比格斯 ，作者巴顿比格斯 巴顿比格斯 . 文 | 巴顿比格斯 来源 | 巴顿比格斯 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 以色列开启斩首行动，地缘事件通过影响供给预期传导至油价，刺激油价上行。现在，全球从 俄乌到印巴再到伊以，地缘冲突不断，复杂多变。原油作为大宗商品之王，影响着全球资产价 格和通胀的变化。当然，如果供给冲击落空，油价上涨过后仍将调整。 2025年原油市场的剧烈波动与特朗普的政策操作密不可分，地缘施压&OPEC影响油价走势， 今年的年度最佳宏观分析师将再次颁给特朗普一点也不过分。 原油价格的剧烈波动，对散户并不友好，清明节后跌停，今天接近涨停，这会导致投机者损失 惨重。要避免此类事件冲击，需从风险识别、策略优化、工具运用三方面构建系统性防御体 系。 隔夜以色列开启斩首行动，伊以冲突升级，黄金与原油大涨，相比之下原油表现更加激动， SC原油主力合约早盘涨停，空头极度恐慌。本轮原油大涨主要驱动是地缘风险抬升叠加前期 空头过度集中。 2025年6月13日，以色列发动 "雄狮崛起" 行动，空袭伊朗首都德黑兰的 IRGC总部，目标 直指伊朗核计划及军事领导人。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司令侯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to significant concerns regarding the stability of the oil supply chain, resulting in a sharp increase in international oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures experiencing their largest single-day gains in over three years, rising by more than 13% at one point [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Domestic energy futures in China surged collectively following the spike in international oil prices, with domestic crude oil futures hitting the limit up and closing nearly 8% higher, while fuel futures rose over 7% and low-sulfur fuel oil futures increased by more than 5% [2]. - Geopolitical risks have become the primary driver of the oil market, with market sentiment likely to support high oil prices in the short term. The recent U.S. CPI data being lower than expected has weakened the dollar, further contributing to the upward momentum in oil prices [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current geopolitical tensions are primarily driven by concerns over potential disruptions in Iranian oil supply, which is currently at approximately 1.5 million barrels per day. A short-term disruption of this level could lead to a price premium of $3 to $4 per barrel, indicating that current prices may be significantly overvalued [4]. - Despite the short-term boost from geopolitical events, the long-term outlook for the oil market will likely revert to supply and demand fundamentals, with existing oversupply pressures remaining unaddressed [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Following the recent price surge, both Brent and WTI crude oil futures have broken through key resistance levels, indicating strong upward momentum. Brent crude has stabilized above $70 per barrel, which was previously a strong resistance level, while WTI has surpassed $72 per barrel [9]. - If oil prices maintain above $70 per barrel, the technical outlook remains bullish, with potential resistance levels identified between $80 and $82.5 per barrel for Brent, and $80 per barrel for WTI, suggesting that further geopolitical tensions could drive prices higher [9].

Group 1: Oil Market Impact - WTI crude oil futures surged by 13% following Israel's airstrikes on Iran, which targeted nuclear facilities and military sites [1][3] - Iran accounts for 2% of global oil exports, and any disruption in supply could lead to significant price increases [3] - Historical trends suggest that geopolitical conflicts typically have a short-term impact on oil prices, with potential resistance at Brent prices above $70 due to ongoing OPEC+ production plans and U.S. shale oil production [3][5] Group 2: Gold Market Reaction - Gold prices rose to $3,435 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid heightened geopolitical risks [1][4] - The increase in gold ETF holdings indicates a shift in market risk appetite, although high interest rates from the Federal Reserve pose a long-term challenge for gold prices [4] - A potential easing of geopolitical tensions could lead to a correction in gold prices, suggesting caution for investors considering entering at current levels [4][5] Group 3: U.S. Policy Considerations - The U.S. stance on the situation is complex, with mixed signals regarding involvement in the conflict, which could further impact oil exports from Iran [5] - Any U.S. actions to restrict Iranian oil exports could lead to a second wave of price increases, although the likelihood of such actions remains low [5]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心小幅回落，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.11 美元至 | | | | 68.04 美元/桶，跌幅 0.16%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.41 美元/ | | | | 桶，至 69.36 美元/桶，跌幅 0.59%。SC2507 以 494.4 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 3.3 元/桶，涨幅为 0.67%。地缘风险仍在持续，美国国务院 | | | | 和军方表示，由于中东地区可能发生动荡，美国政府正在将非必 | | | | 要人员从该地区撤离。根据最新的审查结果和"确保美国人在国 | | | | 内外的安全"的承诺，已下令撤出美国驻巴格达大使馆的所有非 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 必要人员。该大使馆此前已实行人员限制，所以此命令不会影响 | | | | 大量人员。此外，美国国务院也批准非必要人员及其家属离开巴 | 偏强 | | | 林和科威特。随着油价的上行，成品油市场情绪积极，山东地炼 | | | | ...

·据以色列第13频道：一名以色列高级官员称，以色列正准备与伊朗进行"数日的战斗"。 原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/13 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/06/06 | 64.58 | 66.47 | 65.44 | 0.76 | 0.74 | -1.89 | 1.64 | 207.68 | 20.76 | 212.53 | 22.79 | | 2025/06/09 | 65.29 | 67.04 | 65.88 | 0.80 | 0.77 | -1.75 | 1.65 | 209.52 | 20.96 | 214.64 | 23 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being mainly oscillatory, and intraday showing a tendency of oscillatory strength [1][5]. - Geopolitical risks are the dominant factor, and crude oil is expected to run with an oscillatory upward trend. Domestic crude oil futures on Friday may maintain an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2508 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2508 is oscillatory [1]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2508 is oscillatory and slightly stronger, and the reference view is a strong operation [1][5]. b. Price and Market Conditions - On Thursday night, international crude oil futures stopped falling and stabilized, then strengthened again. The domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract slightly rose 0.82% to 490.7 yuan/barrel [5]. c. Core Logic - Geopolitical factors have become an important driver for the rise of domestic and international crude oil futures prices. The escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and concerns about the breakdown of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and potential war have expanded geopolitical risks and increased the premium space for crude oil [5]. - From April to May, OPEC+ oil - producing countries only had a small increase in production, lower than the target, and negative factors were less than expected, leading to the continued recovery of oil prices [5].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 13 日 LPG：地缘风险仍在，暂时观望避险 | | | LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2507 | 4,141 | 0.27% | 4,135 | -0.14% | | 期 货 | PG2508 | 4,027 | 0.35% | 4,036 | 0.22% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2507 | 44,315 | -1705 | 48,048 | -2362 | | | PG2508 | 11,935 | -969 | 49,087 | 1046 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价 差 | 广州国产气对07合约价差 | 489 | | 500 | | | | 广州进口气对07合约价差 | 589 | | 590 | | | | | 本 周 | | 上 周 | | | 产业链重要 | PDH开工率 | 64.3% | | 63.0% | | ...

Group 1 - The historical trend indicates that for every 1% decline in the US dollar index, gold prices tend to rise by an average of 0.8% from 2000 to 2023 [2] - The current situation shows that the Federal Reserve has paused interest rate hikes, leading the dollar index to drop from a high of 114 to 105, which supports gold prices [2] - Key indicators to monitor include the actual yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, with a critical point at 0% and the current value at 1.4% [2] Group 2 - A rise of 10 points in the geopolitical risk index correlates with a short-term increase in gold prices by 2-3% [2] - When the US CPI year-on-year exceeds 5%, the annualized return rate for gold reaches 12% [2] - The current global inflation center has shifted to 4%, above the pre-pandemic level of 3% [2] Group 3 - Trigger conditions for significant gold price increases include a US unemployment rate above 4.5% and CPI falling below 3% [4] - If gold prices break through $2100, they could potentially reach $2300 [4] - Gold mining stocks are expected to benefit significantly, with potential price increases up to twice that of gold prices due to leverage effects [4] Group 4 - The historical reference from the 1970s stagflation period shows that gold prices increased by 12 times [4] - Investment strategies recommended include increasing holdings in gold ETFs (like GLD) and physical gold bars [4] - The global central banks' aggressive interest rate hikes could lead to a surge in actual interest rates [4] Group 5 - The formula for gold allocation is based on the geopolitical risk index and inflation rate, indicating a calculated approach to investment [6] - Gold is viewed as a "ballast" during turbulent times, with expectations for it to potentially break historical highs in 2024 due to multiple driving factors [6] - The essence of gold allocation is seen as purchasing "insurance" rather than seeking excess returns [7] Group 6 - The average premium for Shanghai gold in 2023 was $7 per ounce, peaking at $35 per ounce [7] - The strategy includes buying physical gold domestically and hedging with overseas futures [7] - The potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs could divert 20% of safe-haven funds away from gold [7]