Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The current supply of cotton in China is tight in the short - to - medium - term, with the 09 contract showing a high probability of short - to - medium - term upward movement. However, the 01 contract may be restricted in its upward potential due to expected new cotton production increases. The cotton price is expected to rise in May and June, but caution is needed in July and August. The long - term price trend is affected by macro factors such as Sino - US negotiations and Fed policies [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View - The current supply of cotton in China is tight. By the end of August, commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, lower than the same period last year and in 2023. The 09 contract is strong, with a high probability of short - to - medium - term upward movement. The 01 contract may be restricted by expected new cotton production increases in Xinjiang [3]. - The short - to - medium - term upward limit is 14,000 - 14,100. The cotton price is expected to rise in May and June due to Sino - US trade war easing and potential export rush, but caution is needed in July and August as Sino - US negotiations may be unstable [3]. - The long - term price trend is affected by macro factors. If the negotiation results are good and the Fed cuts interest rates, the cotton price may continue to rise after a decline, challenging 15,000 - 15,100. If the negotiations fail, the price may fall [3]. 2. Market Review - This week, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose significantly due to the relatively smooth Sino - US talks in Geneva and the release of a joint statement on May 12. The pure cotton yarn market is in the traditional off - season, and the industrial transmission is not obvious [5]. - The cotton main contract price was 13,390, up 1,440 or 13.3%; the cotton yarn main contract price was 19,750, up 135 or 0.2%; the US cotton main contract price was 65.43, down 1.7 or 2.6% [6]. 3. Macroeconomic Aspect - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks in Geneva from May 10 - 11 were positive, with the two sides agreeing to establish a consultation mechanism and releasing a joint statement on May 12 [10]. - The US economic activity is slowing down, with April PPI falling 0.5% month - on - month, retail sales growing only 0.1% month - on - month, and manufacturing output falling 0.4% month - on - month. The May housing builder confidence index also dropped to the lowest level since late 2023 [10]. - The US initial jobless claims remained stable at 229,000, while the continued claims increased by 9,000 to 1.881 million [10]. - The Eurozone's Q1 economic growth was revised down, but the labor market remained strong with a 0.3% employment growth [10]. 4. Industrial Chain - In April 2025, China's cotton textile industry PMI was 34.11%, down 26.10 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line. New orders, production, and operating rates all dropped, cotton inventory decreased slightly, and cotton yarn inventory increased significantly [12]. - India's clothing exports in April 2025 were 1.371 billion US dollars, a 14.43% year - on - year increase and a 10.45% month - on - month decrease. From January to April, the total clothing exports were 6.043 billion US dollars, an 8.14% year - on - year increase [12]. - Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 3.905 million tons, a 5.5% year - on - year increase, due to an expected increase in planting area [12]. - India's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 5.002 million tons, a 9.5% year - on - year decrease, with consumption expected to be 5.712 million tons, a 5.2% year - on - year decrease [12]. 5. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand forecast, production is expected to decrease year - on - year but remain at the second - highest level in the past five years, consumption is expected to increase year - on - year to the highest level in the past five years, and the ending inventory will decrease slightly [13]. - In the 2024/25 forecast, global cotton production is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, consumption is expected to increase slightly, and the ending inventory will decrease slightly [13]. 6. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, total supply decreased by 500,000 tons to 14.91 million tons due to a reduction in imports. Total demand increased by 60,000 tons to 8.21 million tons, mainly due to an increase in cotton consumption for spinning [16][17]. - In the 2025/26 season, total supply decreased by 500,000 tons to 15.09 million tons, with a decrease in beginning inventory and an increase in production. Total demand increased by 60,000 tons to 8.14 million tons [16][17]. 7. US Cotton Exports - From May 2 - 8, the net signing of US 2024/25 upland cotton was 27,715 tons, an 86% increase from the previous week and a 2% increase from the four - week average. The shipment was 74,661 tons, a 17% decrease from the previous week and a 5% decrease from the four - week average [20]. - China's net signing of current - year upland cotton was 0 tons, with a significant increase in shipment. There was no signing of Pima cotton and no signing of next - year's upland cotton [20]. 8. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - By the end of April, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.1526 million tons, a 14.20% decrease from the previous month and a 4.29% decrease from the same period last year [23]. - By the end of April, the cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 954,200 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons from the end of the previous month. The disposable cotton inventory was 1.2884 million tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons from the end of the previous month [23]. - The total industrial and commercial inventory was 5.1068 million tons, a decrease of 135,400 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 692,100 tons month - on - month [23]. 9. Cotton Climate - In the Southwest Cotton Region, the weather is sunny, and the sowing operation is in progress. The soil moisture in the sub - surface layer is insufficient, and rainfall is needed [24]. - In the South - Central Cotton Region, the weather is warm, but there is a 40% - 50% probability of scattered thunderstorms in the future, which may delay outdoor operations [28]. 10. Xinjiang Region - On the 16th, there was light rain in parts of the southwestern mountainous areas of southern Xinjiang, and windy and high - temperature weather in parts of northern Xinjiang, eastern Xinjiang, etc. High - temperature weather is expected in parts of Junggar Basin, Tarim Basin, and eastern Xinjiang in the next three days, with a high fire risk level [32]. 11. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - As of May 16, the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,548, with an effective forecast of 365, and the total warehouse receipts were 11,913, a decrease of 222 from the previous week [35]. - As of May 6, the non - commercial net long positions in ICE cotton futures and options increased by 1,452 to - 14,546; the pure futures non - commercial net long positions increased by 1,662 to - 10,076; the commodity index fund net long positions increased by 2,692 to 60,020 [35]. 12. Basis - The current cotton basis is 1,187 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan from the previous week; the current cotton yarn basis is 900 yuan, a decrease of 180 yuan from the previous week [39]. 13. Price Differences - The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has widened, currently at 1,222 yuan, an increase of 600 yuan from the previous week; the difference between domestic and foreign cotton yarn prices has widened, currently at - 1,368 yuan, an increase of 262 yuan from the previous week [43]. 14. Industrial Chain Load - The production enthusiasm of textile enterprises is fair, and the operating rate is relatively stable [45]. 15. Industrial Chain Inventory - The inventory of textile enterprises has decreased, and the overall yarn inventory has been transferred to traders [53]. 16. Industrial Chain Profits - Due to the significant increase in cotton prices compared to cotton yarn prices, inland textile enterprises currently have a small loss in immediate cash flow [55].

Macro Economic Overview - The macroeconomic report indicates that the recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to a potential short-term improvement in trade relations, which may positively impact economic growth expectations for the second quarter [3][20][21] - The report highlights that April's new social financing (社融) increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, which is 1.22 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, but 4.73 trillion yuan less than March, slightly below the consensus expectation of 1.26 trillion yuan [3][14] - The stock market is recommended for overweight allocation, while bonds and currency are suggested for underweight allocation due to anticipated short-term impacts on the bond market from stock performance [4][5] Asset Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.12% this week, while the CSI 300 Index futures increased by 1.06%. In contrast, coking coal futures fell by 2.21%, and iron ore futures rose by 4.67% [2][13] - The ten-year government bond yield increased by 4 basis points to 1.68%, while the active ten-year government bond futures dropped by 0.53% [2][13][43] - The report notes that the average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in April was approximately 3.2%, which is about 4 basis points lower than the previous month, maintaining a historically low level [25] Industry Insights - The automotive sector showed significant growth, with wholesale and retail sales of passenger cars increasing by 44% and 30% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a strong recovery in consumer demand [35][39] - The construction industry is also experiencing growth, with a year-on-year increase in sales revenue of 6.5%, reflecting accelerated project construction across various regions [24][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of fiscal policies in supporting economic stability, particularly through increased government bond financing, which rose by 1.07 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [3][14]

Supply and Demand - Construction starts show a structural positive change, with infrastructure cement usage exceeding the same period in 2024[2] - Industrial production remains at a seasonally high level, with the chemical chain operating at historical highs[2] - Demand in construction is weak, while automotive and home appliance demand is improving, with rolling sales of passenger cars showing a year-on-year increase[3] Price Trends - International commodity prices show a mixed trend, with oil and gold prices declining while base metals are rising[4] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing a slight rebound, with rebar prices recovering and some chemical and building material prices showing signs of rebound[4] - Food prices are trending downward, with agricultural product prices fluctuating downwards and pork prices remaining stable[4] Real Estate and Liquidity - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, although first-tier cities show improvement, with transaction area in major cities up 2% week-on-week[5] - Second-hand housing transactions in Beijing and Shenzhen show a marginal year-on-year decline, while Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions continue at historical highs[5] - Liquidity is tightening, with funding rates declining; as of May 16, R007 was at 1.63% and DR007 at 1.64%[5] Export Performance - High-frequency export data has not significantly rebounded, with May exports expected to be around 0% year-on-year as of May 17[6] - Port throughput data indicates a potential decline in exports, with daily export transport data showing some resilience but not a substantial recovery[6] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy strength[6]

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 5 月 16 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250516 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】4 月金融数据点评*张晓娇 朱启兵。4 月新增社融和新增信贷 偏弱，主要是受美国关税政策冲击；但 4 月数据中仍反映出积极的财政政策 落地速度较快、居民购房需求仍在恢复趋势当中；5 月国内宏观政策加大宽 松力度、海外经贸形势出现较大变化，我们预计将提振二季度经济预期。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3380.82 | (0.68) | | 深证成指 | 10186.45 | (1.62) | | 沪深 300 | 3907.20 | (0.91) | | 中小 100 | 6321.96 | (1.34) | | 创业板指 | 2043.25 | (1.92) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美容护理 | 3.68 | 计算机 | (2.97) | | 煤炭 | 0.42 | 通信 | (2.45) ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 15 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆豆粕： | 震 ...

Report Highlights Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy had a good start in Q1 2025, but the foundation for economic recovery needs to be consolidated, and the external environment is complex with weakening global economic growth momentum. The economy's long - term positive trend remains unchanged [1][5]. - Monetary policy continues the moderately loose tone, with important adjustments in the intensity, rhythm of regulation, and the use of monetary policy tools. The MLF is gradually withdrawing from its policy - rate attribute [1][11]. - For the bond market, in the short term, short - end interest rates may decline due to loose liquidity, while long - term bonds may face pressure. In the medium term, the focus is on the rhythm of fiscal stimulus and overseas interest - rate cuts. Overall, the interest - rate center is expected to decline, but there may be phased adjustments [2][16]. Section Summaries Economic Situation - The Q1 2025 monetary policy report's judgment on the domestic and international economic situation follows the tone of the Politburo meeting. The domestic GDP grew 5.4% year - on - year, with simultaneous improvements in production, supply, consumption, and investment. However, external risks include trade risks, global debt risks, and financial market volatility risks [5]. - Domestically, effective demand needs further boosting, the traditional real - estate sector faces adjustment pressure, and the employment market needs continuous consolidation [6]. Monetary Policy - The overall loose monetary - policy tone continues, with the policy - intensity description changing from "adjusting at an appropriate time" to "flexibly grasping". There is an increased emphasis on stabilizing growth. In the short term, structural tools and credit supply may be the main means [7]. - The central bank will use various monetary - policy tools to maintain liquidity, with more focus on quantitative tools. The "interest rate" is removed from the tool description, and "resuming treasury - bond trading at an appropriate time" is mentioned [8]. - The report aims to balance supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system, and may guide the decline of deposit interest rates to reduce bank liabilities [10]. Incremental Information from Report Columns - MLF has gradually withdrawn from its policy - rate attribute since March 2025, and will mainly play a role in providing medium - term liquidity to the market in the future [11]. - The central bank pays attention to bond - market interest - rate risks, and may improve the system to suppress market risks and maintain interest - rate transmission efficiency [11]. - By comparing the government balance sheets of China, the US, and Japan, it shows that China's government debt is sustainable and there is still fiscal space [12]. - The inflation - control thinking has shifted, emphasizing the coordination of monetary policy with industrial and employment policies to improve the supply - demand structure and boost prices [13]. Market Outlook - For the bond market, short - end interest rates may decline due to loose liquidity in the short term, while long - term bonds may face pressure from short - term tariff negotiations and supply. If deposit interest rates are cut, it will be beneficial for the further decline of the interest - rate center. In the medium term, the focus is on the impact of fiscal stimulus and overseas interest - rate cuts [2][16].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is neutral, indicating that the overall return is expected to be between -5% and 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of $10.364 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.18%, and a net profit of $1.507 billion, reflecting a 13.48% growth compared to the previous year [4][8]. - The adjusted EPS for Q1 2025 was $5.15, down from $6.10 in Q4 2024, indicating a cautious outlook due to macroeconomic uncertainties [8]. - The adjusted gross margin was 41.7%, with SG&A expenses accounting for 16.5% of revenue, and total R&D expenditure was $342 million, representing 7.5% of manufacturing revenue [8]. - The company maintains its full-year revenue guidance of $43.3 billion to $44.2 billion, with an internal revenue growth forecast of 1% to 3% [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of $10.364 billion in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0.18% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.12% [4][8]. - The free cash flow was $370 million, and operating cash flow was $720 million, with capital expenditures of $350 million [8]. Earnings Guidance - The adjusted EPS guidance for 2025 is set at $21.76 to $22.84, with a median decrease of $1.00 from previous guidance due to changes in tariffs and policies between China and the U.S. [8]. - The management's outlook has shifted from confident optimism in Q4 2024 to a more cautious stance in Q1 2025, reflecting the impact of macroeconomic uncertainties [8].

Employment Insights - The total number of employees in manufacturing listed companies reached 16.01 million in 2024, growing by 3.3% year-on-year, a slight decrease from 4.1% in the previous year[2] - The automotive manufacturing and computer communication electronics sectors contributed nearly all employment growth, adding 320,000 and 180,000 employees respectively[2] - The electrical machinery sector saw a decline of 51,000 employees in 2024[2] Income Distribution - Average salary in manufacturing listed companies was 176,000 yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, aligning closely with the 4.6% growth in urban disposable income[3] - The ratio of manufacturing average salary to financial industry salary increased to 0.454, the highest since 2012, indicating a favorable trend for talent inflow into manufacturing[3] - The labor compensation ratio in manufacturing listed companies rose to 9.9% in 2024, the highest since 2012[3] Profitability Challenges - Manufacturing listed companies experienced a 12.2% decline in operating profit in 2024, worsening from an 11.1% decline in the previous year[4] - The operating profit margin fell from 6.6% in 2023 to 5.7% in 2024[4] - The profitability pressure index increased to 10.5% in 2024, up from 7.7% in 2023, but lower than the 15% seen in 2015[4] Investment Returns - The estimated investment return for manufacturing listed companies was 5.4% in 2024, down from 6.4% in 2023, marking a decline below 2014 levels[5] - Seven industries, including leather and computer communication electronics, saw a rebound in investment returns despite the overall decline[5] Financial Health - Total assets of manufacturing listed companies grew by 5.1% in 2024, a slowdown from 8.4% in the previous year[6] - The asset-liability ratio increased to 52% in 2024, continuing a three-year upward trend[7] Cash Flow Issues - The accounts receivable turnover days increased to 57.1 days in 2024, the second-highest since 2012, indicating heightened collection pressure[7] - The growth rate of monetary funds for non-financial A-share companies turned negative at -1.9% in 2024, a significant drop from 4.1% previously[7] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure for manufacturing listed companies fell by 11.1% year-on-year in 2024, contrasting with a 3.4% increase in 2023[8] - Newly listed companies showed a capital expenditure growth of 23.7%, significantly higher than other firms[8] Financing Conditions - Interest-bearing debt for manufacturing listed companies grew by 6.8% in 2024, but the growth rate has been slowing since 2022[9] - The interest burden decreased to 3.36% in 2024 from 3.48% in 2023, indicating a reduction in debt pressure[9]

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一、美国港口进口与预期同时回落。美国洛杉矶港口船舶停靠数量下滑至 16 艘，4 月均值为 21.3 艘，港口集装箱进 口吞吐量环比下滑-124%，已经连续两周大幅下滑，当周同比增速下滑至 32.1%，4 月末同比为 56%。 二、韩国前 10 日出口大幅下滑。韩国 5 月前 10 日出口同比增速从 13.4%大幅下滑至-23.8%，同比增速创新 2021 年 以来新低。 三、中国出口维持韧性。 风险提示 四、价格下行压力延续。按照模型估算，GDP 平减指数或下滑至-0.8%左右。5 月第一周，大宗商品价格进一步下滑， 焦煤、焦炭、螺纹钢、水泥价格分别下滑 5.7%、6%、2.4%、2.4%。按照目前的高频数据估算，5 月 PPI 同比增速或进 一步下行至-3.2%左右。 五、服务业带动 GDP 增速小幅企稳，5 月初按照高频数据估算，预计 GDP 同比增速回升至 5.1%。 美国国内需求持续走弱，带动全球需求下行，拖累中国出口增速 受全球需求和国内需求不足等因素影响，国内价格下行压力加大，通缩持续 在外需走弱时，关注行业需求变化，国内部分行业产能利用率或面临下行压力 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多 ...