Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of the US dollar driven by global economic recovery, improved trade relations, and central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve's tightening measures [1][3][5]. Group 1: Global Economic Recovery - From 2023 to 2024, the global economy is showing signs of recovery from the pandemic, with improved trade relations between China and the US contributing to increased trade confidence [3][4]. - The US, as the largest economy, directly influences the demand for the dollar through its trade recovery [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - Central banks worldwide are tightening monetary policies in response to inflation pressures, which supports the dollar's strength [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes enhance the dollar's attractiveness and tighten its supply in the international market, further driving its appreciation [3][4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The interplay between trade optimism and central bank policies reveals deeper market logic, with the dollar serving as a key reserve and transaction currency amid global uncertainties [4][5]. - The dollar's status as a safe-haven currency remains significant, especially in the context of ongoing geopolitical risks and trade tensions [4][5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The dollar's future strength will depend on various factors, including the pace of global economic recovery and the monetary policies of other major economies [5][6][7]. - Potential challenges to the dollar's dominance may arise from shifts in global capital flows and the internationalization of other currencies like the euro and yuan [6][7].

制作日期：2025年7月25日 【策略分析】 【冠通研究】 沥青：高开震荡 区间操作 基差方面： 山东地区主流市场价上涨至3850元/吨，沥青09合约基差下跌至235元/吨，处于偏高水平。 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落4.0个百分点至28.8%，较去年同期高了4.0个百分点，沥青开 工率转而回落，处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，7月份国内沥青预计排产254.2万吨，环 比增加14.4万吨，增幅为6.0%，同比增加48.5万吨，增幅为23.6%。本周，沥青下游各行业开工率多 数上涨，其中道路沥青开工环比上涨2个百分点至27.0%，只是仍处于近年同期偏低水平，受到资金 和降雨高温制约。本周，华北地区集中交付前期合同，出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加8.03% 至26.9万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比本周环比转而回落，仍处于近年来同期的最 低位。美国允许雪佛龙恢复在委内瑞拉开采石油，或将增加沥青原料供给。全球贸易战的恐慌情绪 缓解，只是全球贸易战阴云仍未完全散去，近期原油价格震荡，工信部提到新一轮十大重点行业 （包括石化、建材等）稳增长工作方案近期将陆续发布，摸底石化、化工老装置清单，淘汰20 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 400 billion MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion after 300 billion MLF maturity in July [1] - In July, the PBOC also conducted a 14 trillion reverse repurchase operation, achieving a net injection of 2 trillion after offsetting 12 trillion maturity, leading to a total net liquidity injection of 3 trillion for the month [1] - The continuous injection of medium-term liquidity reflects the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, supporting credit expansion to meet financing needs of enterprises and households [2] Group 2 - Despite a low probability of interest rate cuts in the short term, monetary policy is expected to focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth in the second half of the year [3] - The PBOC is likely to maintain the momentum of MLF operations and reverse repos to ensure stable liquidity levels, supporting government bond issuance and enhancing banks' lending capabilities [3] - There is a possibility of resuming government bond purchases through open market operations to inject long-term liquidity into the banking system, countering external economic fluctuations [3]

Group 1 - Citigroup's outlook suggests that if growth remains resilient and prices improve, the attractiveness of Chinese assets will increase [1] - Deutsche Bank indicates that the burden of tariffs is primarily borne by Americans, leading to downward pressure on the dollar [2] - Dutch International highlights concerns over the UK's fiscal situation, which has contributed to the depreciation of the pound [3] Group 2 - Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that the deterioration of UK public finance data increases the likelihood of tax measures in the upcoming autumn budget [4] - Capital Economics argues that Trump's tariffs are unlikely to significantly revive U.S. manufacturing, as competition from low-wage countries remains a challenge [5] - Saxo Bank views the recent U.S.-Japan trade agreement as a political show rather than a substantial economic catalyst [6] Group 3 - Citic Construction states that the controllable nuclear fusion industry is entering a fast development phase, positively impacting the supply chain [7] - Citic Construction estimates that the average annual demand for coal-fired power generation capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will be 60-80 GW, significantly higher than current market expectations [8] - Citic Securities continues to recommend leading companies in the thermal coal sector, anticipating a new round of opportunities due to recovering coal prices [9] Group 4 - Citic Securities predicts a 25-30% increase in cement demand in Tibet by 2026, driven by ongoing infrastructure development [10] - Citic Securities expects the banking sector to maintain an upward trend in Q3 2025, supported by favorable market conditions [11] - Huatai Securities reports that the domestic "anti-involution" measures are creating opportunities in the metals sector, with price recoveries in polysilicon and other materials [12]

Group 1: Trade Agreement Overview - The United States and Japan reached a trade agreement before August 1, significantly reducing U.S. tariffs on Japanese automobiles and industrial goods from 25% to 15% in exchange for Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in the U.S. and open its markets for automobiles, rice, and other products [2][3] - The agreement is seen as a short-term benefit for Japan, as it avoids higher tariffs that could severely impact its automotive industry, which is a key sector for the Japanese economy [3][4] Group 2: Economic Impact - Following the announcement of the trade agreement, Japan's stock market surged, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 3.51% and the TOPIX index increasing by 3.18%, particularly benefiting the automotive sector [5] - Japanese government bond yields rose across the board, reflecting concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook and the potential for increased government spending following the recent elections [6][7] Group 3: Political Context - The political landscape in Japan remains uncertain, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba facing pressure to resign after the ruling coalition lost its majority in the recent elections, which could lead to increased market volatility [6][8] - Analysts suggest that the election results may have significant implications for Japan's macroeconomic policies, including fiscal strategy and the direction of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy [9]

Group 1: Trade Agreements and Economic Impact - The US and Japan have reached a trade agreement, reducing the reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 15%, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion and open its agricultural market [1] - Following the announcement, Japan's Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indices rose approximately 2.7%, reaching their highest levels since July 2024, with significant gains in the automotive sector [3] - The Philippines also reached a trade agreement with the US, with tariffs set at 19%, lower than the previously threatened 20% [1] Group 2: Political Developments in Japan - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to announce his resignation by the end of August, following the ruling coalition's loss of majority seats in the recent Senate elections [1][5] - The political uncertainty in Japan may lead to increased volatility in the market, affecting investor confidence and complicating the policy environment [5] - The election results could influence Japan's fiscal policy direction, with opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and the ruling coalition favoring fiscal discipline [5] Group 3: Bond Market Reactions - Japanese government bond yields have risen across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 5 basis points to 0.8%, and the 10-year yield rising by 8 basis points to 1.58% [4] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are driving the bond market, with predictions of further yield increases if populist parties push for tax reductions [6] Group 4: Broader Market Trends in Asia - Other Asian markets also experienced gains, with South Korea's KOSPI index rising 0.62% and significant increases in automotive stocks [7] - Vietnam's stock market has shown strong performance, with a 19% increase this year, driven by optimism from recent trade agreements and significant economic reforms [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current macroeconomic environment and its implications for investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of understanding both domestic and international factors affecting market dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Domestic Fundamentals - The report highlights the resilience of the domestic economy, noting that key indicators such as industrial profits and consumer spending remain robust despite external uncertainties [3][4]. - It points out the dual mission of consumption in driving economic growth while also addressing structural challenges within the economy [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Insights - The analysis indicates a trend of increasing financial support from the government to stabilize market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector [4]. - It discusses the implications of monetary policy adjustments and the need for careful monitoring of financial indicators to gauge future economic performance [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Tracking - The article reviews recent policy measures aimed at fostering economic growth and stability, emphasizing the ongoing commitment to reform and opening up [4]. - It notes the significance of fiscal policies in supporting key sectors and the potential for new policies to emerge in response to evolving economic conditions [4]. Group 4: International Context - The report examines the impact of global economic trends, including U.S. monetary policy and trade dynamics, on the domestic market [3][4]. - It highlights the importance of understanding international economic signals to make informed investment decisions [3][4].

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/7/22 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 2249.700 -50.6↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | 1548 | | -100.50↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2508-EC2510价差 | 701.70 +2.50↑ EC2508-EC2512价差 | | 541.00 | | -8.70↓ | | EC合约基差 | 150.80 +42.20↑ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 12393 -1644↓ | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 2400.50 -21.44↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | 1,301.81 | | 35.22↑ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1646.90 -86.39↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | 1,227.97 | | 0.07↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1303.54 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steepness of the yield curve reflects uncertainty in fiscal policy according to the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey [1] Group 1 - The yield curve's steepness indicates potential challenges in the economic outlook and fiscal management [1] - Bailey's comments suggest that market perceptions of fiscal policy are influencing interest rates and investment decisions [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market is expected to be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand. The electrolytic aluminum market may face stable supply and temporarily weak demand, with the influence of the consumption off - season intensifying. The casting aluminum alloy market is likely to be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory gradually accumulating [2]. - For all three markets (alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and casting aluminum alloy), the technical analysis shows that the 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis with converging red columns. The recommended trading strategy is to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,513 yuan/ton, up 127 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,641 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars. The spreads of some contracts changed, such as the spread of the Shanghai Aluminum current - next month contract increasing by 10 yuan to 65 yuan, while the alumina current - next month contract spread decreased by 24 yuan to 0 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 13,990 hands to 330,897 hands, while the alumina main contract position decreased by 9,904 hands to 211,644 hands. LME aluminum inventories increased by 3,725 tons to 434,425 tons, and Shanghai Aluminum's SHFE inventory increased by 5,625 tons to 108,822 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price was 20,940 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,210 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of casting aluminum alloy decreased by 740 yuan to - 30 yuan, and the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 280 yuan to 100 yuan. The basis of alumina decreased by 203 yuan to - 176 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: Alumina production was 774.93 million tons per month, with a national alumina start - up rate of 79.61% and a capacity utilization rate of 80.93% (down 1.17 percentage points) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 23.83 million tons to 696.19 million tons per month, and the alumina supply - demand balance increased by 52.40 million tons to 27.14 million tons per month [2]. - **Trade**: China's imports of aluminum scrap and waste decreased by 4,084.65 tons to 155,616.27 tons per month, and exports decreased by 8.11 tons to 64.33 tons per month. Alumina exports decreased by 4 million tons to 17 million tons per month, and imports increased by 3.38 million tons to 10.13 million tons per month [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.50 million tons to 4,520.70 million tons per month, the production of aluminum products increased by 11.17 million tons to 587.37 million tons per month, and the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons per month [2]. - **Trade**: The import of primary aluminum decreased by 30,781 tons to 192,314.50 tons per month, and the export decreased by 12,523.35 tons to 19,570.72 tons per month. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6 million tons to 49 million tons per month, and the export of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons to 2.58 million tons per month [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of aluminum alloy increased by 2.40 million tons to 166.90 million tons per month, and the production of automobiles increased by 16.66 million vehicles to 280.86 million vehicles per month. The national housing climate index decreased by 0.11 to 93.60 [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - **Volatility and Ratio**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 0.08 percentage points to 10.04%, the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.01 percentage points to 10.10%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money increased by 0.0233 percentage points to 11.38%, and the put - call ratio increased by 0.0486 to 1.13 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Fiscal policy in the second half of 2025 is expected to continue to support consumption and investment, and market institutions expect a further decline in LPR [2]. - Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorated" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and expected long - term high interest rates [2]. 3.8 Market Views and Suggestions - **Alumina**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is stable. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply is stable, and the demand is temporarily weak. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a slightly stronger volatile manner [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply and demand are weak. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a slightly stronger volatile manner [2].