Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Carbonate Lithium [1] - **Bearish**: Aluminum Oxide, Glass, Asphalt [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Precious Metals, Silver, Electrolytic Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Bean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Fuel Oil, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, PF, PVC, High - Concentration Alkali [1] - **Wait - and - See**: Crude Oil, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] Core Views - In the short term, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US leaders' meeting during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the month. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Market risk appetite recovery may suppress precious metals, but factors such as the continued US government shutdown and the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October will support the gold price, so the gold price is expected to enter an oscillating trend [1]. - Global trade frictions are repeated, copper prices fluctuate more, and with the continuous fermentation of copper mine supply disturbances and the improvement of macro - liquidity at home and abroad, copper prices are expected to run strongly [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and the price is expected to oscillate. The domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and the fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on the spot price [1]. - The US government shutdown continues, increasing macro - risks. Although the Sino - US trade situation has eased, there are still subsequent disturbances. The short - term opening of the export window has supported the domestic zinc price [1]. - The Sino - US trade friction has slightly eased, and attention should be paid to the statements and negotiation progress of both sides. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut at the end of the month remains high. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and attention should be paid to the quota approval in 2026 in the fourth quarter [1]. - The short - term substantial impact of Indonesia's ban on ore exports is not large, but the supply risk of tin ore is expected to be strong, and the demand is supported by the AI trend, so it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - to - long term [1]. - The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy storage demand is strong. Although the supply production has increased, the overall demand is large, so the price of carbonate lithium is bullish [1]. - The industrial drivers of rebar and hot - rolled coil are not clear, and the valuation is low, so it is not recommended to participate in directional trading. The near - month iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for the far - month [1]. - The direct demand for manganese silicon is good, but the supply is high, the inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure to oscillate. The short - term production profit of ferrosilicon is not good, the cost support is strengthening, the direct demand is good, and there are macro - level benefits [1]. - The supply and demand of glass are supported, and in the short term, sentiment is the main factor. The downward space of the price is limited, and the price fluctuation is strengthening. Soda ash follows glass, with a large supply surplus pressure and the price under pressure [1]. - The news that Indonesia will regulate (reduce) exports to meet the raw material demand for B50 next year has a bullish support for the far - month palm oil contracts. The high inventory in Malaysia in September and high exports in October are intertwined, and the near - month lacks new drivers for the time being [1]. - The Sino - US trade dispute is repeated. The selling pressure of US soybeans restricts the US soybean price, which brings pressure to the domestic soybean oil price from the cost side. However, the expectation of soybean oil inventory reduction also supports the market [1]. - The Canadian foreign minister's visit to China is expected to negotiate on the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed, which may bring bearish speculation. The domestic rapeseed is still in short supply, and the rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing from a high level [1]. - The expansion of Xinjiang's cotton spinning capacity and the decrease in spinning profits lead to great uncertainty in the cotton demand in the new year. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but the new crop basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - Typhoons around the National Day have an adverse impact on the sugarcane harvest and output in South China. There is a seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices in the short term, but the rebound space is limited after the new sugar is launched [1]. - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade policy and the abundant domestic soybean meal supply bring a pessimistic market expectation, but the current poor profitability of domestic soybean purchases may affect the purchase progress, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single - side [1]. - The trading logic of pulp lies in the trading of old warehouse receipts of the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure [1]. - The spot price of logs is firm, and it is not cost - effective to short after the futures price drops sharply, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The spot price of live pigs has stabilized, but it is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight. The futures price is still at a premium to the spot price, and the short - term trend is uncertain [1]. - OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation cools down, the demand enters the off - season, and the US attitude towards tariffs on China softens, so the prices of crude oil and fuel oil are expected to be bearish or oscillate [1]. - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan for construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - US tariffs affect the demand for natural rubber, the weather in the producing areas is gradually normal, the supply is expected to increase, and the overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak [1]. - OPEC+ continues to increase production, but the fundamentals of butadiene are tight. The supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, the downstream trading is weakening, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [1]. - The fundamentals and sentiment of PTA are declining, the PXN has significantly rebounded, and the domestic PTA production has decreased due to unit inspections [1]. - The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still low, the overseas import is expected to decline, and the domestic unit commissioning is putting pressure on the price. After the National Day, the peak season for polyester is coming to an end [1]. - The short - fiber plants are gradually resuming production, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts has weakened, and the short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely with the cost [1]. - The price of benzene in Asia is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, and the future inventory of styrene is expected to accumulate further [1]. - The export sentiment of urea has eased, the domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost side [1]. - The price center of the crude oil market has slightly declined, the maintenance intensity has weakened, the downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the price of PF is oscillating strongly [1]. - The support of maintenance for some products is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price returns to the fundamentals and oscillates weakly [1]. - The PVC futures price returns to the fundamentals, the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the supply pressure is large, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so the futures price oscillates weakly [1]. - Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent maintenance concentration is decreasing, the digestion of warehouse receipts is not smooth, and the price of high - concentration alkali is inverted [1]. - OPEC's production increase, the weakening of international CP/FEI prices, and the tight domestic butane fundamentals drive the valuation repair of PG prices [1]. - The price of container shipping to Europe has fallen to a relatively low level, and there is a possibility of a low - level rebound. It is gradually entering the contract - changing rhythm, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, so it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1] Summaries by Catalog Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, pay attention to the Sino - US leaders' meeting during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the month and the repeated tariff policies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals**: Market risk appetite recovery may suppress precious metals, but factors such as the continued US government shutdown and the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October will support the gold price, so it is expected to enter an oscillating trend [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Global trade frictions are repeated, copper prices fluctuate more, and with the continuous fermentation of copper mine supply disturbances and the improvement of macro - liquidity at home and abroad, copper prices are expected to run strongly [1] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals are mixed, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Aluminum Oxide**: The domestic production capacity continues to be released, and the fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on the spot price [1] - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown continues, increasing macro - risks. Although the Sino - US trade situation has eased, there are still subsequent disturbances. The short - term opening of the export window has supported the domestic zinc price [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The Sino - US trade friction has slightly eased, and attention should be paid to the statements and negotiation progress of both sides. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut at the end of the month remains high. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and attention should be paid to the quota approval in 2026 in the fourth quarter [1] - **Tin**: The short - term substantial impact of Indonesia's ban on ore exports is not large, but the supply risk of tin ore is expected to be strong, and the demand is supported by the AI trend, so it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, Southwest start - up is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened. Polysilicon production in October has increased more than expected, and the demand for organic silicon is weak [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the medium - to - long term. In October, the supply increases while the demand decreases, and the anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, so the market sentiment has subsided [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy storage demand is strong. Although the supply production has increased, the overall demand is large, so it is bullish [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The industrial drivers are not clear, and the valuation is low, so it is not recommended to participate in directional trading [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for the far - month [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The direct demand is good, but the supply is high, the inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure to oscillate [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The short - term production profit is not good, the cost support is strengthening, the direct demand is good, and there are macro - level benefits [1] - **Glass**: The supply and demand are supported, and in the short term, sentiment is the main factor. The downward space of the price is limited, and the price fluctuation is strengthening [1] - **Soda Ash**: Follows glass, with a large supply surplus pressure and the price under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap before the holiday, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge the previous highs again, but the difficulty of breakthrough is large. It depends on whether there are new statements about "anti - involution" in the domestic important meeting communique this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The news that Indonesia will regulate (reduce) exports to meet the raw material demand for B50 next year has a bullish support for the far - month contracts. The high inventory in Malaysia in September and high exports in October are intertwined, and the near - month lacks new drivers for the time being [1] - **Soybean Oil**: The Sino - US trade dispute is repeated. The selling pressure of US soybeans restricts the US soybean price, which brings pressure to the domestic soybean oil price from the cost side. However, the expectation of soybean oil inventory reduction also supports the market [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian foreign minister's visit to China is expected to negotiate on the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed, which may bring bearish speculation. The domestic rapeseed is still in short supply, and the rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing from a high level [1] - **Cotton**: The expansion of Xinjiang's cotton spinning capacity and the decrease in spinning profits lead to great uncertainty in the cotton demand in the new year. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but the new crop basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1] - **Sugar**: Typhoons around the National Day have an adverse impact on the sugarcane harvest and output in South China. There is a seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices in the short term, but the rebound space is limited after the new sugar is launched [1] - **Corn**: The market is concerned about the selling pressure of the spot in the producing areas after the end of October. However, the acquisition attitude towards high - quality corn in Northeast China is positive, and the downward space of the C01 contract is expected to be limited [1] - **Bean Meal**: The uncertainty of Sino - US trade policy and the abundant domestic soybean meal supply bring a pessimistic market expectation, but the current poor profitability of domestic soybean purchases may affect the purchase progress, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single - side [1] - **Pulp**: The trading logic lies in the trading of old warehouse receipts of the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure [1] - **Logs**: The spot price is firm, and it is not cost - effective to short after the futures price drops sharply, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but it is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight. The futures price is still at a premium to the spot price, and the short - term trend is uncertain [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation cools down, the demand enters the off - season, and the US attitude towards tariffs on China softens, so the prices are expected to be bearish or oscillate [1] - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan for construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - **Natural Rubber**: US tariffs affect the demand, the weather in the producing areas is gradually normal, the supply is expected to increase, and the overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak [1] - **BR Rubber**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, but the fundamentals of butadiene are tight. The supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, the downstream trading is weakening, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [1] - **PTA**: The fundamentals and sentiment are declining, the PXN has significantly rebounded, and the domestic PTA production has decreased due to unit inspections [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is still low, the overseas import is expected to decline, and the domestic unit commissioning is putting pressure on the price. After the National Day, the peak season for polyester is coming to an end [1] - **Short Fiber**: The plants are gradually resuming production, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts has weakened, and the price continues to fluctuate closely with the cost [1] - **Styrene**: The price of benzene in Asia is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, and the future inventory is expected to accumulate further [1] - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, the domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost side [1] - **PF**: The price center of the crude oil market has slightly declined, the maintenance intensity has weakened, the downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the price oscillates strongly [1] - **PVC**: The futures price returns to the fundamentals, the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the supply pressure is large, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so it oscillates weakly [1] - **High - Concentration Alkali**: Many alumina

金融期货早评 宏观：关注四中全会与 APEC 峰会 【市场资讯】1）王文涛部长与欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇举行视频会谈。 王文涛部长与荷兰经济大臣卡雷曼斯通话。2）俄乌进程一波三折："特普会"筹备遇阻，欧 洲首次明确响应特朗普，呼吁"立即停火"。3）高市早苗当选日本首相，内阁完成认证，正 式成立。 【核心逻辑】国内层面，中美贸易局势缓和的预期有所升温，后续需将中美贸易谈判进程 作为核心关注方向，但短期内对谈判成果不宜抱有过高期待。数据方面，三季度 GDP 同比 增速如期边际放缓，而 GDP 平减指数则呈现边际回升态势；从 9 月经济数据来看，生产端 韧性仍存，需求端则出现一定回落。近期财政发力托底经济的意图十分明确，后续经济复 苏的关键将取决于内需层面的修复节奏与力度。海外方面，美国政府停摆致数据真空，市 场对经济担忧暂缓但风险仍存，预计美联储 10 月降息 25 个基点，然因市场提前定价，实 际影响或有限。 人民币汇率：高市早苗当选首相 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 7.1171，较上一交易日上涨 60 个基点，夜盘收报 7.1250。人民币对美元中间价报 7.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean market is facing significant challenges due to the absence of Chinese purchases, leading to a "bumper harvest but unsold" crisis, with exports stagnating and prices under pressure [3][19]. Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market Dynamics - U.S. soybean futures prices have been fluctuating between 1000 to 1050 cents per bushel since October, with weakening supply-demand conditions and uncertainty in global trade [1]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report has been delayed due to the government shutdown, increasing market uncertainty as trading relies on estimates from market analysis firms [2]. - The USDA's September report indicated an increase in U.S. soybean planting area by 200,000 acres to 81.1 million acres, with total production rising by 9 million bushels to 4.301 billion bushels, despite a slight decrease in yield [2]. Group 2: Export Challenges - The U.S. soybean export market is heavily reliant on China, which has seen a drastic drop in purchases from 13 million tons last year to zero for the new season due to trade tensions [4][3]. - In the 2024/2025 season, U.S. soybean exports to China are expected to decline by 8.1% to 22.48 million tons, with the share of total exports dropping from 54% to 44% [4]. - The overall expectation for U.S. soybean ending stocks is increasing due to reduced export demand and rising domestic inventories [2][3]. Group 3: South American Soybean Market - In contrast to the U.S., Brazil's soybean exports are experiencing strong growth, with October exports reaching 2.166 million tons, a 26.5% year-on-year increase [7]. - Argentina is also seeing a rise in soybean pre-sales and export license applications, indicating robust export potential despite recent slowdowns [8][10]. - The overall dominance of South American soybeans in the global market is expected to continue, with Brazil and Argentina benefiting from favorable weather conditions and policy support [12][19]. Group 4: Soybean Crushing and Demand - U.S. soybean crushing remains at historically high levels, with September crushing volume reaching 19.78 million bushels, a 4.24% month-on-month increase [13]. - However, soybean crushing profits are declining due to lower meal prices and competition from Argentine exports, which are impacting U.S. market share [13][14]. - The future of U.S. soybean crushing will depend on domestic biodiesel policies and the ability to maintain competitive pricing against South American soy products [14]. Group 5: Weather and Planting Conditions - The focus has shifted to South American planting conditions, with Argentina experiencing favorable moisture levels for soybean planting, while Brazil faces mixed weather challenges [16][17]. - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to influence soybean yields, with Argentina showing potential for high yields while Brazil's southern regions may face drought risks [18]. - The overall global soybean market is characterized by increasing supply and decreasing demand, heavily influenced by policy decisions and weather conditions [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, the short - term index faces uncertainties due to the rapid rotation of hot sectors and reduced risk appetite. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea is to go long on dips [3]. - For the bond market, in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market is likely to maintain a volatile trend under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases, the bond market is expected to recover [5]. - For precious metals, although there was a significant decline, gold and silver prices still have room to rise in the future but need some consolidation time. It is recommended to maintain a long - term long - position idea and go long on dips after the price stabilizes [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals' prices are affected by Sino - US trade relations and industrial supply - demand. Some metals are expected to be strong in the short - term, while others are expected to be weak [11][15][17]. - For black building materials, steel prices are affected by macro policies and fundamentals. Iron ore prices are under pressure due to weak terminal demand and macro disturbances. Glass and soda ash markets are weak due to supply - demand imbalances [34][36][38]. - For energy chemicals, rubber prices have risen significantly in the short - term, and short - term long - position with stop - loss is recommended. Crude oil prices are not recommended to be overly shorted in the short - term, and a wait - and - see approach is suggested. Other chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [53][55]. - For agricultural products, the supply of pigs and eggs exceeds demand, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. For soybeans and rapeseed meal, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term. For oils and fats, a mid - term stable buying idea is recommended. For sugar, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter. For cotton, the upward space is expected to be limited [77][79][82]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods are presented [2]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, the short - term index is uncertain, but long - term policy support remains, suggesting long - term long - position on dips [3]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts changed on Tuesday. There are diplomatic and political news, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net injection of 685 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference decline is beneficial for the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market needs to focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The market is expected to be volatile, and it may recover if the stock market cools down [5]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures prices fell. COMEX gold and silver prices are reported, and relevant market indicators such as the US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are given [7]. - **Strategy**: Although there was a significant decline, gold and silver prices have room to rise in the future. It is recommended to maintain a long - term long - position and go long on dips after price stabilization [7][8]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices oscillated and declined. LME and domestic warehouse receipts and inventories changed, and the spot premium and import losses are reported [10]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiation uncertainty remains, but sentiment has improved marginally. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price may strengthen after short - term oscillation [11]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded. The positions, inventories, and spot premiums of domestic and foreign markets changed [12]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade tensions have eased marginally. The low domestic inventory and tight overseas supply, along with the strong copper price, support the aluminum price, which may rise in the short - term [13]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly. The positions, inventories, and basis of domestic and foreign markets are reported [14]. - **Strategy**: The domestic zinc mine inventory decreased, and the total zinc ingot inventory increased. The LME zinc registered warehouse receipts are low, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose slightly. The positions, inventories, and basis of domestic and foreign markets are reported [16]. - **Strategy**: The lead ore port inventory increased, and the smelting and downstream demand conditions improved. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated at a low level. The spot market, cost, and demand of nickel are reported [18]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider long - position on significant dips [20]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose slightly. The supply and demand situation of tin is reported [21]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but the short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate was stable. The import volume and futures price changed [23]. - **Strategy**: There is a shortage of supply in the peak season, and the inventory is decreasing. The price may continue to rise if consumption is strong. It is recommended to pay attention to warehouse receipts and supply [24]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose slightly. The positions, basis, and inventory are reported [25]. - **Strategy**: The ore price has short - term support, but the over - capacity in the smelting end is difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply policies and monetary policies [27]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. The positions, spot prices, and inventory are reported [28]. - **Strategy**: The price increase of the 304 cold - rolled limit by the steel mill has boosted market confidence, but the demand is not strong enough to support continuous price increases. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [29]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rebounded. The positions, inventory, and price differences are reported [30]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations may improve sentiment, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space of the price [31]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose slightly. The positions, warehouse receipts, and spot prices are reported [33]. - **Strategy**: The commodity market was weak, and steel prices were volatile. The macro policies and fundamentals need to be focused on [34]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. The positions, spot prices, and basis are reported [35]. - **Strategy**: The iron ore supply increased, and the demand decreased due to weak steel mill profits. The price is expected to be weak and volatile, and support levels need to be watched [36]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass and soda ash prices fell. The inventory and positions increased [37][39]. - **Strategy**: The glass market is weak due to weak demand and high inventory. The soda ash market has a supply - demand imbalance with high inventory, and the price is expected to be weak [38][40]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [41]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade friction affects the market, but the current situation may be mostly priced in. The black market is not expected to be pessimistic, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [42]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices rose. The positions, spot prices, and basis are reported [44][46]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon supply is under pressure, and the price is expected to be volatile. Polysilicon supply is expected to decrease at the end of the month, and the price is in a corrective phase in the oscillation range [45][47]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoons and the stock market. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [49]. - **Strategy**: Rubber prices rose significantly in the short - term. It is recommended to set stop - loss for short - term long - position and partially build positions for hedging [53]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and related product prices fell. The inventory of the Fujaiera port changed [54]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [55]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [56]. - **Strategy**: The import unloading is delayed, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be affected by winter gas restrictions, and it is recommended to wait and see [57]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [58]. - **Strategy**: The short - term production decreased due to equipment failures, and the demand is weak. The price is at a low level and is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position on dips [59]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory are reported [60]. - **Strategy**: The spot and futures prices rose, and the basis weakened. The supply is abundant, and the demand is increasing. The port inventory is decreasing, and the price may stop falling [61]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [62]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export is expected to be poor. The price is at a low level, and it is recommended to consider short - position on rallies [63]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose slightly. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [64]. - **Strategy**: The supply is high, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to consider short - position on rallies [65]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [66]. - **Strategy**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see [68]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [69]. - **Strategy**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA load is low. The inventory is difficult to reduce. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to terminal and PTA valuations [70]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [71]. - **Strategy**: The cost support is weakening, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to be volatile at a low level [72]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [73]. - **Strategy**: The cost supply is in an oversupply situation, and the inventory pressure is high. The price is expected to be affected by the cost and demand [74]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices rose. The supply and demand situation is reported [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply exceeds demand, and the second - fattening is difficult to succeed. It is recommended to sell on rallies [77]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices fell. The supply and demand situation is reported [78]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may rebound, but the space is limited. The disk is in a weak bottom - building phase, and it is recommended to wait and see [79]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean and rapeseed meal prices changed. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [80]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the global supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term [82]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production of palm oil and the export of Brazilian agricultural products are reported. Domestic oil prices fell [83]. - **Strategy**: The low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, the US biodiesel policy, and the reduced export of palm oil support the price. It is recommended to take a mid - term stable buying approach [84]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices oscillated slightly. The Brazilian export and price reduction of gasoline are reported [85]. - **Strategy**: The production in Brazil and the northern hemisphere is expected to increase. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [86][87]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [88]. - **Strategy**: The consumption demand is weak, and the new cotton production is expected to be high. The upward space of the price is limited [89].

黑色建材日报 2025-10-22 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3047 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 2 元/吨（0.065%）。当日注册仓单 129796 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 199.5833 万手，环比减少 10093 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3110 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3219 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.124%）。 当日注册仓单 113657 吨, 环比减少 2375 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the critical role of rare earth elements in global high-tech industries and highlights China's dominance in the rare earth market, controlling approximately 70% of global production [2] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have intensified, particularly regarding rare earth exports, with the U.S. seeking to reduce its dependency on Chinese supplies [4][10] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - In 2025, the U.S. attempted to negotiate tariff exemptions in exchange for rare earth supplies, but China remained firm, leading to a temporary agreement on tariffs without progress on the rare earth issue [4] - The U.S. has accused China of threatening the global supply chain due to its rare earth export controls, with Trump threatening to impose 100% tariffs in response to China's actions [4][10] Group 2: U.S. Strategies to Secure Rare Earths - The U.S. has sought to find intermediaries, such as South Korea and Japan, to source rare earths from China, but faced challenges due to China's warnings against such practices [5] - The U.S. has also turned to Ukraine for rare earth development, offering financial and technical support in exchange for access to its resources, although the potential output is limited [5] Group 3: Smuggling and Illicit Activities - There has been a notable increase in rare earth smuggling cases linked to U.S. companies, with various methods employed to disguise shipments [7][8] - Some U.S. companies have reported smuggling activities to Chinese authorities, indicating a complex relationship where companies are frustrated with market disruptions caused by smuggling [8] Group 4: Future Implications and Strategies - The article emphasizes the need for China to maintain its control over rare earth resources in light of U.S. pressures and the potential for a decoupling of supply chains [10][12] - The U.S. is investing in domestic production and partnerships, such as funding for Australian companies to increase rare earth output, but significant gaps remain compared to China's production capabilities [12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic outlook under the changing dynamics between China and the United States, particularly in the context of the Asia Pacific region [2][3]. Core Economic Insights - The actual GDP growth rate for the year is expected to reach 4.8%, with a decline in growth anticipated in the second half of the year [7][8]. - The persistent issue of deflation remains a significant challenge, with nominal GDP weakening affecting wage growth [17][18]. - The fiscal impulse has weakened since August, leading to a rapid decline in infrastructure investment [11][12]. Investment and Consumption Trends - Infrastructure investment growth rates have shown a downward trend across various sectors, including utilities and transportation [13]. - Consumer sentiment has deteriorated, with a notable increase in youth unemployment rates [22][24]. - Retail sales, excluding old-for-new products, have shown a significant decline, particularly in housing-related consumption and automobiles [19]. Export Performance - China's export performance has exceeded expectations, benefiting from supply chain advantages, despite a noticeable decline in exports to the U.S. [26][27]. - Exports to non-U.S. regions have remained strong, indicating resilience in the face of trade tensions [26]. U.S.-China Trade Relations - Recent developments include China's expansion of rare earth controls and the U.S. threatening to impose 100% tariffs [30][31]. - Ongoing bilateral consultations are noted, with both sides expressing the need to avoid new restrictive measures [31][32]. - The potential scenarios for U.S.-China relations range from tactical escalations to long-term economic decoupling [34][36]. Rare Earth and Technology Controls - The tightening of rare earth controls by China may accelerate the global shift away from reliance on Chinese supplies [41]. - The U.S. has intensified technology controls, particularly in the semiconductor sector, where China's self-sufficiency remains low [46]. Structural Economic Challenges - The high savings rate in China reflects deep-seated structural imbalances in the economy, with a significant portion of savings concentrated in bank deposits [83][85]. - The report emphasizes the need for consumption to rebalance the economy, with social security reforms being crucial for increasing consumption's share in GDP [66][63]. Policy Recommendations - A comprehensive fiscal stimulus plan of approximately 10 trillion RMB is proposed to boost consumption and support economic recovery [51]. - Structural reforms are necessary to address the systemic tendencies of overcapacity and improve resource allocation efficiency [108]. Real Estate Market Insights - The real estate sector is still in a phase of adjustment, with new construction activity having largely completed its quantitative adjustments, while price adjustments remain uncertain [78]. - The report suggests that real estate inventory reduction will serve social welfare rather than solely support real estate companies [80]. Conclusion - The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with significant challenges posed by deflation, structural imbalances, and geopolitical tensions. The emphasis on reforms and fiscal measures is critical for stabilizing and stimulating the economy moving forward [7][66][51].

核心观点 国庆节期间，由于市场预计 MPOB9 月报告影响利多、印尼 B50 完成非 道路测试以及中美即将举行元首会面带来两国关系改善的预期，马棕油及美 豆上涨带动节后国内油脂高开。但是节后 MPOB9 月报告影响意外利空，且 中美贸易摩擦再次升级，对油脂接下来的走势蒙上阴影。本文将分析在宏观 风险笼罩的大背景下，三大油脂的基本面及后续走势预期。 短期来看，川普总统确定中美元首仍计划在 10 月底的 APEC 会议上会 面，宏观风险部分减弱但仍然存在，需等待会议结果。油脂自身基本面方面， 目前三大油都处于多空交织状态，短期走势预计延续震荡运行。品种上，棕 油因为马棕油 10 月出口数据维持强劲、印尼可能提高出口税并限制出口来 保证国内棕油供应，豆油因为中美关系出现缓和迹象促使美豆上涨带来的成 本端支撑，预计表现相对偏强。而菜油因为加拿大外交部长访华后两国关系 有好转的迹象，预计表现相对偏弱。不过本次谈判没有突破性进展，菜油下 跌空间有限。 中长期来看，从 11 月起东南亚进入传统减产季，叠加印尼 B50 继续发 酵和国内 11 月后买船相对偏少，棕油有望在 11 月后呈现偏强走势且在三油 中表现最强。豆油方面 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Trade Representative announced additional port service fees on Chinese vessels starting October 14, 2025, charging $50 per ton and $120 per container, citing unfair competition from China's shipbuilding industry, which holds over 50% of the global market share [3] - In retaliation, China's Ministry of Transport announced special port fees on U.S. vessels, starting at 400 RMB per net ton and increasing to 1120 RMB over three years, with exemptions for Chinese-built ships [3] - The first U.S. ships arriving in China on October 14 will incur significant fees, with a 30,000-ton vessel facing over 12 million RMB in charges, potentially leading to rerouting of shipping lines [3] Group 2 - Following the U.S. measures, South Korea's Hanwha Group faced immediate repercussions as China announced trade restrictions on five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha, which were involved in providing information for the U.S. 301 investigation against China [5] - Hanwha Marine, a major South Korean shipbuilding company, had previously invested over $1 billion to acquire a U.S. shipyard and planned to expand its production capacity significantly, focusing on U.S. military projects [6] - The South Korean government has committed to investing $150 billion to support the U.S. shipbuilding industry under the MASGA plan, aiming to secure priority access to U.S. defense contracts [8] Group 3 - South Korea's President Lee Jae-myung has continued a pro-U.S. policy, particularly in shipbuilding and defense, which has led to increased dependency on Chinese supply chains for critical materials [10] - Hanwha's reliance on Chinese rare earth materials for its products poses a risk, as supply chain disruptions could delay U.S. orders and incur significant penalties [10] - Following the announcement of trade restrictions, Hanwha's stock price dropped by 5.8%, resulting in a market value loss of $4.1 billion, while other South Korean shipbuilders also experienced declines [12] Group 4 - The South Korean government is actively seeking alternatives to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earth materials, with a target to decrease dependency from 70% to 50% within 90 days [12] - However, challenges remain as alternative suppliers are currently overwhelmed with orders, leading to increased costs and longer delivery times [12] - China's recent export controls on rare earth technologies further complicate the situation for South Korean companies, potentially increasing their operational costs by at least 35% [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Bullish in the long - term, maintaining a long - position mindset, with a short - term view of a volatile pattern [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile pattern, with reduced pressure for further adjustment [1] - **Gold and Silver**: Bullish in the long - term, with new positions on hold for the short - term due to reduced short - term bullish factors [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Cautiously bullish, with previous long positions still holdable, and attention to Sino - US relations [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Aluminum)**: Bullish in the long - term, with short - term upward drivers depending on macro changes; Alumina in a bearish pattern [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Volatile pattern, with the strategy of selling put options at low levels continuing to be held [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Volatile pattern, with supply and demand both increasing [6] - **Silicon Energy**: Volatile pattern, with the market influenced by short - term policy disturbances [6] - **Steel and Ore (Rebar)**: Volatile pattern, with short - term support strengthened, and light - position short positions in the 01 contract holdable [6] - **Steel and Ore (Hot - rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish, with short - term support strengthened, and light - position short positions in the 01 contract holdable [6] - **Steel and Ore (Iron Ore)**: Volatile pattern, with the price having stronger support below, and a wait - and - see approach for unilateral positions [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Volatile pattern, with limited actual improvement in fundamentals [8] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bearish, with previous short positions in the 01 contract holdable [8] - **Glass**: Volatile pattern, with the strategy of holding short positions in out - of - the - money call options on near - term contracts [8] - **Crude Oil**: Bearish pattern, with supply and demand lacking support [8] - **Methanol**: Volatile pattern, with the strategy of selling put options continuing [8] - **Polyolefins**: Bearish pattern, with the strategy of long - L - short - PP spread arbitrage holdable, and selling put options for the 11 - contract [10] - **Cotton**: Bearish pattern, with prices expected to remain within the current volatile range [10] - **Natural Rubber**: Volatile pattern, with support at the bottom [10] - **Palm Oil**: Bullish in the medium - term, with a volatile pattern in the short - term [10] Core Views - The Sino - US trade friction shows signs of easing, which has an impact on market risk appetite and asset prices. The long - term driving force of the technology sector remains clear, and the market is paying attention to important meetings at the end of the month [1] - The bond market has rebounded from a low level, and the pressure for further adjustment has decreased due to factors such as the approaching domestic important meeting, uncertain Sino - US trade relations, and loose liquidity [1] - For precious metals, although the long - term upward logic is clear, short - term bullish factors have weakened, and new positions should be on hold [4] - Non - ferrous metals are affected by both macro events and fundamentals. Copper has fundamental support, while aluminum has supply constraints and its long - term upward trend remains, and nickel is in a volatile pattern [4] - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the price has a ceiling and a floor. The silicon energy market is influenced by short - term policies, and the steel and ore market is affected by supply - demand contradictions and policy expectations [6] - The coking coal and coke market has limited actual improvement in fundamentals, and the soda ash market is in a supply - surplus situation, while the glass market is in a volatile pattern [8] - The crude oil market is under supply pressure and lacks support from supply and demand, and the methanol market is in a multi - empty stalemate [8] - Polyolefins are in a supply - surplus situation, cotton has fundamental pressure, natural rubber has support at the bottom, and palm oil has medium - term price resilience [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - Last week, the A - share market adjusted with reduced volume, and the main indexes closed down. High - dividend sectors such as coal and banks were relatively strong, while sectors such as electronics, media, and automobiles led the decline. The Sino - US trade friction shows signs of easing, and the long - term driving force of the technology sector remains clear. The equity index maintains a long - position mindset and pays attention to important meetings at the end of the month [1] Treasury Bonds - The bond market rebounded from a low level last week. Due to factors such as the approaching domestic important meeting, uncertain Sino - US trade relations, and loose liquidity, the pressure for further adjustment has decreased [1] Precious Metals - Gold and silver have a clear long - term upward logic, but short - term bullish factors have weakened. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset in the long - term and put new positions on hold in the short - term. Previous long positions in AU2512 and AG2512 can continue to be held [4] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Sino - US trade game continues, but the fundamentals support copper prices. The previous long positions can still be held, and attention should be paid to the development of Sino - US relations [4] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fluctuated last week. The social inventory of Shanghai aluminum has decreased, and the supply constraint continues. The long - term upward trend remains, but the short - term upward driver depends on macro changes. Alumina is in a bearish pattern [4] - **Nickel**: The nickel market has a balanced supply and demand pattern, with both surplus pressure and cost support. The nickel price is in a volatile pattern, and the strategy of selling put options at low levels can continue to be held [4] Lithium Carbonate - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing. The resource - end disturbances are gradually weakening, and the price has a ceiling and a floor [6] Silicon Energy - The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the market price of polysilicon is affected by policy expectations. The overall market is in a relatively loose situation and is in a volatile pattern [6] Steel and Ore - **Rebar**: The demand for construction steel is weak in the peak season, and the supply and demand are both weak. The risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain is accumulating. However, policy expectations are positive, and the price is expected to be volatile [6] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The supply pressure of hot - rolled coils is relatively high, and the inventory is increasing. The risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain is rising. Policy expectations are positive, and the price is expected to be volatile [6] - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand structure of imported ore is under marginal pressure, but the supply - demand contradiction has not yet accumulated significantly. Policy expectations are positive, and the price has support below. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral positions [6] Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: Although there are supply - side disturbances, the actual improvement in fundamentals is limited, and the upward driving force of prices may not be sustainable [8] - **Coke**: The coke price follows the coal price. The actual demand is acceptable, but the expected demand is not good. The coke oven start - up rate may decline marginally [8] Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash exceeds demand, and the industry is increasing inventory passively. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [8] - **Glass**: The demand for glass is weak in the peak season, and the supply - contraction expectation has not been fulfilled. It is recommended to hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options on near - term contracts [8] Crude Oil - The supply of crude oil is under pressure, and the inventory is expected to increase. The supply and demand lack support, and the price is in a bearish pattern [8] Methanol - The overseas methanol plant start - up rate is high. The market is in a multi - empty stalemate, and it is recommended to continue selling put options [8] Polyolefins - Polyolefins are in a supply - surplus situation, and the price is weak. It is recommended to hold the long - L - short - PP spread arbitrage and sell put options for the 11 - contract [10] Cotton - The supply of cotton is under pressure, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain within the current volatile range [10] Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is in the peak production season, but the actual demand is not bad. The price has support at the bottom [10] Palm Oil - The medium - term price of palm oil has resilience, and the short - term is affected by other oils and crude oil. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset [10]