Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (interpreted as a more clear upward trend with appropriate current investment opportunities according to the star - rating description) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is mainly characterized by a bearish pattern dominated by loose supply and demand. The geopolitical situation is controllable, and the market is in a stage of relatively loose supply and inventory accumulation, with limited short - term upward space for oil prices [2]. - Geopolitical factors dominate the fuel oil market. The short - term geopolitical fluctuations support high - sulfur fuel oil, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. For low - sulfur fuel oil, winter demand provides support, but the supply pressure is emerging, and the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking may provide bottom - line support [3]. - The asphalt trend follows crude oil but with a relatively limited amplitude. After the current disk has priced in the expected cost increase due to the tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China, the upward driving force is limited, and it is in a range - bound pattern [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The Trump administration postponed military actions against Iran, and the geopolitical situation is temporarily tense but controllable, making it difficult to drive oil prices to rise continuously [2]. - The crude oil market is in a stage of relatively loose supply and inventory accumulation, causing part of the geopolitical risk premium previously included in oil prices to be reversed [2]. - Unless there is a significant interruption in oil supply due to conflicts, the short - term upward space for oil prices is expected to be limited, and the market is dominated by a bearish pattern of loose supply and demand [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors are the main drivers of market fluctuations. Although the US - Iran situation is postponed, the risk remains. If Iran's exports are blocked, it will tighten regional supply and support fuel oil prices to be relatively resistant to decline, with a slight strengthening of the crack spread [3]. - Short - term geopolitical fluctuations will support high - sulfur fuel oil, but in the medium term, the supply will be loose due to the abundant raw materials and high inventory, showing an overall positive spread pattern [3]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Winter demand provides some support, but the supply from overseas refineries is rising. About 130,000 tons of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Kuwait Azour refinery is expected to arrive in Singapore in late January, bringing supply pressure and capping the upside [3]. - The strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking may provide bottom - line support for low - sulfur fuel oil [3]. Asphalt - Oil prices have fluctuated sharply recently due to repeated geopolitical news, and the asphalt trend follows crude oil but with a relatively limited amplitude [4]. - Kpler data predicts that the arrivals in January will still be sufficient. After the current disk has priced in the expected cost increase due to the tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China, the upward driving force is limited, and it is in a range - bound pattern [4]. - Attention should be paid to the arrival situation of Venezuelan crude oil in the future [4].

光大期货能化商品日报 | 品种 | 点评 周二油价收涨，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.90 美元至 60.34 美 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/桶，涨幅 1.51%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘上涨 0.98 美元至 64.92 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.53%。SC2603 以 442.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 4 元/桶， | | | | 涨幅为 0.91%。特朗普以征收关税为筹码，威胁若不交出格陵兰 | | | | 岛就对多个欧洲国家采取关税措施，其争夺格陵兰岛的强硬行径 | | | | 引发金融市场震荡。对于美国收购格陵兰岛的企图持反对态度的 | | | 原油 | 欧洲多国领导人，对特朗普的关税威胁表示强烈抵制，并警告称 | 震荡 | | | 若美方实施关税措施，他们将予以反击。天气方面，本周晚些时 | | | | 候到下周将有寒冷天气席卷美国，这包括进入德克萨斯州的霜冻 | | | | 气温，昨天夜盘气价大幅拉升，原油亦担忧天气而呈现反弹。从 | | | | 时间窗口来看，需关注在严寒天气的持续性，以及是否引发冻井 | | | | 2 现象，预计 月初天 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt [1][7] - **Bearish Continuation**: L, PP, PVC, glass, soda ash [1][7] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Natural gas [7] - **Range - bound**: PX/PTA [2] - **Cautiously Bullish with Caution**: Methanol, urea [3][4] - **Cautiously Bearish with Caution**: Ethylene glycol [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors and supply surplus are in a tug - of - war, with oil prices poised for adjustment. There are uncertainties in the Middle East, and supply is in excess during the off - season [1][10]. - **LPG**: It follows the decline in oil prices as the cost end. Although there is some support from downstream demand and inventory, the downward pressure is increasing [1][15]. - **L**: Linear production scheduling has increased, and the market is expected to continue its weak oscillation in the short term due to the off - season demand and inventory accumulation [1][20]. - **PP**: With high warehouse receipts and weak cost support, the supply - demand situation is relatively balanced in the short term, but attention should be paid to PDH device dynamics [1][24]. - **PVC**: The cost support has improved, but the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [1][27]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand balance is tight, and the outlook is positive. Although there is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, the overall situation is expected to improve [2][29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand balance is loose, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. The domestic device load has increased, and demand is seasonally weak [2][32]. - **Methanol**: The supply - demand situation is slightly loose, and the rebound height may be limited. There is a game between the weak current situation and strong expectations [3][36]. - **Urea**: There is short - term inventory reduction and cost support, but the demand is expected to weaken during the holiday season. The price has an upper and lower limit [4][40]. - **Natural Gas**: Cold air has boosted demand, but the supply is sufficient, and the upward space of gas prices may be limited [7][46]. - **Asphalt**: In the off - season of demand, the raw material end provides support, and the price remains stable. The cracking spread still has room for compression [7][49]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the market is expected to be weak before further supply reduction [7][54]. - **Soda Ash**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, the demand support is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [7][58]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.72% and Brent rising 0.39%, while the domestic SC fell 0.93% [9][10] - **Basic Logic**: The Middle East geopolitical situation has eased but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus during the off - season, and the global and US inventories are increasing [10][11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is increasing production and pressing down prices. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the SC should be monitored in the range of [430 - 445] [12] 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On January 20, the PG main contract closed at 4059 yuan/ton, a 1.58% decline. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China also showed different degrees of decline [14] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the long - term. The downstream chemical demand is resilient, and the inventory has decreased [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG price still has room for compression. The PG should be monitored in the range of [3100 - 3200] [16] 3.3 L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract price fell, and the basis weakened significantly [18] - **Basic Logic**: Linear production scheduling has increased, the parking ratio has decreased, and the production is expected to rise slightly. The demand is in the off - season, and inventory has accumulated [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to continue its weak oscillation in the short term, and the L should be monitored in the range of [6550 - 6750] [20] 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract price declined slightly [22] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, the cost support is weakening, and the supply - demand situation is relatively balanced in the short term. Attention should be paid to PDH device dynamics [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The PP should be monitored in the range of [6400 - 6600] [24] 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract price rose slightly [25] - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda has fallen, and the cost support has improved. However, the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is mainly recommended to conduct positive spreads between months. The V should be monitored in the range of [4650 - 4850] [27] 3.6 PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract price fell [28] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low, the processing fee has improved, the supply - side devices are under planned maintenance, the demand is seasonally weak, and there is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term driving force is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 05 contract, and the TA05 should be monitored in the range of [5120 - 5250] [30] 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract price remained unchanged [31] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low. The domestic device load has increased, the overseas device maintenance is expected to be high, the demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory is expected to accumulate [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds, and the EG05 should be monitored in the range of [3650 - 3750] [33] 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [34] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic and overseas device loads have decreased, the import pressure is expected to ease, the demand is slightly weak, and the cost support is weakly stable [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - side pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is suppressed by the weak olefin market. The MA05 should be monitored in the range of [2190 - 2240] [38] 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: The UR05 contract price rose slightly [39] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The overall production load has increased, the demand is short - term strong but may weaken during the holiday season, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter storage is of limited benefit, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the overseas natural gas price increase may drive the domestic market. The UR05 should be monitored in the range of [1770 - 1800] [42] 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On January 19, the NG main contract remained unchanged, and the spot prices in the US and Europe showed different trends [45] - **Basic Logic**: Cold air has boosted demand, but the supply is sufficient. The production is growing steadily, and the inventory in the US has decreased [46] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the winter consumption season, the demand supports the gas price, but the upward space is limited. The NG should be monitored in the range of [3.670 - 4.205] [46] 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 20, the BU main contract closed at 3139 yuan/ton, a 0.10% decline [48] - **Basic Logic**: The raw material supply is uncertain, providing support for the price. The cost profit has decreased, the production has increased, the demand has entered the off - season, and the inventory has increased [49] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is returning to normal, and the supply - side uncertainty has increased. The BU should be monitored in the range of [3100 - 3200] [50] 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract price fell [52] - **Basic Logic**: The demand is in the off - season, and the supply needs to be further reduced. The weak demand restricts the upward space [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It should be treated weakly before further supply reduction. The FG should be monitored in the range of [1030 - 1080] [54] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract price declined [56] - **Basic Logic**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, the demand support from the glass industry is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [58] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - side pressure is high, and the SA should be monitored in the range of [1150 - 1200] [58]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The main tone of the crude oil market is a bearish pattern dominated by loose supply and demand, with limited short - term upside potential for oil prices [2]. - Precious metals remain strong, and a long - position mindset should be maintained [3]. - For various metals, non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and energy and chemical products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., as well as agricultural products including soybeans, corn, etc., each have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [4][22][36]. Summary by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions are controllable, supply is relatively loose, and inventory is accumulating. The short - term upside of oil prices is limited, and the market is under pressure [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is geopolitically driven. High - sulfur fuel oil may be strong in the near - term due to geopolitical uncertainties, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure but has some support from the rise in gasoline and diesel cracking spreads [22]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuates with crude oil, and the market is in an oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: They continue to be strong, and a long - position mindset should be maintained due to the weakening confidence in US dollar assets [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price dropped overnight. It is recommended to hold an option combination and consider short - selling with a small position [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price continued to adjust. The support level for Shanghai aluminum is at 23,500 yuan after breaking 23,800 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The price slightly declined. In the short - term, it is not expected to fall deeply, but there is downward pressure in the medium - term [8]. - **Lead**: The price is in a low - level oscillation pattern, with a price range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is in a high - level oscillation, and a long - position mindset should be maintained [10]. - **Tin**: The price opened high and closed low. Attention should be paid to the substantial reduction in positions of Shanghai tin [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, and risk prevention should be noted [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is likely to oscillate, and there is hedging pressure above the 9,000 yuan/ton mark [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price rebounds weakly, and the spot price is expected to rise steadily [14]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: The price oscillates in a range. Demand expectations are weak, and attention should be paid to market trends [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation [16]. - **Coke**: The price is likely to follow a weak oscillation [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is likely to follow a weak oscillation [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates downward. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillates downward. The supply decreases significantly, and demand has some resilience [20]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The price is weakly stable. In the short - term, it may decline slightly, while in the long - term, it is likely to oscillate strongly within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The price is expected to oscillate and remain stalemate [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price oscillates strongly in the short - term [26]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation supports the price [27]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply is tight, but demand support is expected to weaken, and the upward driving force of the supply - demand fundamentals may be insufficient [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to increase in the long - term, and a low - buying strategy is recommended. Caustic soda continues to be weak [29]. - **PX & PTA**: In the second quarter, there are opportunities for PX processing margin and positive spreads, and the PTA processing margin is moderately repaired [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillates at the bottom. In the second quarter, supply - demand may improve, but it is under long - term pressure [31]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: Short - fiber follows the cost, and bottle - grade chip has some improvement in processing margin but faces long - term capacity pressure [32]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The price is in a weak situation. In the long - term, it needs to reduce capacity, and low - buying opportunities can be considered when the price drops to around 1,000 yuan [33]. Rubber - **20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The demand is gradually recovering, the supply of natural rubber is decreasing, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [34]. Agriculture - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: South American weather is improving, and the US soybeans are in a bottom - oscillation trend. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: They are expected to oscillate within a range [37]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The prices are expected to bottom - out and oscillate, with rapeseed oil slightly stronger than rapeseed meal [38]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price drops, and attention should be paid to policies and the spot market [39]. - **Corn**: The price of Dalian corn futures is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term [40]. - **Pigs**: The short - term rebound of hog futures may end, and the price is expected to reach a low point in the first half of next year [41]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the prices of futures and spot are weakening, while in the long - term, a low - buying strategy can be maintained [42]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton is in a high - level oscillation. It may continue to adjust, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [43]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic sugar markets have different production situations, and short - term sugar prices face some pressure [44]. - **Apples**: The futures price回调, and the market focus shifts to demand [45]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [46]. - **Pulp**: The price rises slightly. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the increase in the price of downstream base paper [47]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares fell, and short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and the subsequent changes in the sharp fluctuations of US and Japanese bonds [48]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, the yield curve may remain steep, and opportunities to flatten the curve can be considered [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously chase long [2][3] - Urea: Cautiously chase long [3] - Natural gas: Bearish rebound [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand relationship, and cost. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and South America have an impact on the prices of energy - related products. Supply - demand imbalances exist in many varieties, with some facing over - supply pressure during the off - season, while others have weak demand. Cost factors, especially the price of crude oil, play a crucial role in the price trends of many products [1][7][11] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Summary**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, but there is still uncertainty. The market is in an off - season with supply surplus, and inventories are rising. OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the long - term, with short - term rebounds possible [1][11][12] - **Price Information**: WTI主力 at $59.34, Brent主力 at $64.13, and SC主力 at 442.6 yuan/barrel [9] - **Supply**: Iraq's daily oil export in January 2026 is expected to be 3.6 million barrels [12] - **Demand**: The share of Middle East crude supply in India's December 2025 crude imports rose to nearly 54% [12] - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 9, US crude inventory increased by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million barrels [12] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, OPEC+ expansion may push the price into a low - price range. Short - term, watch for rebounds, and for SC, focus on the range of [430 - 445] [13] LPG - **Summary**: It follows the downward trend of the cost - end crude oil price. The supply and demand are relatively stable, with downstream chemical demand showing resilience. The inventory shows positive signals [1][17] - **Price Information**: On January 19, the PG主力 contract closed at 4124 yuan/ton, down 0.48% [16] - **Supply**: As of the week of January 16, the LPG commodity volume was 518,700 tons, up 600 tons [17] - **Demand**: As of the week of January 16, the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates were 73.07% (- 2.54pct), 67.57% (+0.00pct), and 37.99% (+0.32pct) respectively [17] - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 16, the refinery inventory was 156,700 tons, down 1,900 tons, and the port inventory was 2.0278 million tons, down 104,200 tons [17] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the price may continue to decline. Focus on the range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - **Summary**: The basis weakens, and it follows the cost - end to move weakly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [22] - **Price Information**: L05 closed at 6667 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7 yuan/ton [20][22] - **Supply**: The parking ratio is 14%, and the planned device restart this week may lead to a slight increase in production [22] - **Demand**: Entering the off - season in January, the demand is weakening [22] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [6600 - 6750] [22] PP - **Summary**: The warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the supply is slightly increasing. It follows the cost to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The supply - demand is weak on both sides [26] - **Price Information**: PP05 closed at 6482 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 yuan/ton [24][26] - **Supply**: The parking ratio is 19%, and the PDH profit is low, increasing the expectation of maintenance [26] - **Demand**: Entering the off - season in January, the demand is weakening [26] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [6400 - 6600] [26] PVC - **Summary**: The price of calcium carbide has increased, and the price of liquid caustic soda has decreased, with improved cost support. However, there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand in the long - term, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [30] - **Price Information**: V05 closed at 4801 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 241 yuan/ton [28][30] - **Supply**: The domestic operating rate has increased to 80% [30] - **Demand**: In the seasonal off - season, both domestic and foreign demand are weak [30] - **Inventory**: Social inventory has reached a new high [30] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PX/PTA - **Summary**: It is in a range - bound state. The processing fee has been repaired, but the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the cost - end PX is in a weak balance [32] - **Price Information**: TA05 closed at 5018 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 58 yuan/ton [31][32] - **Supply**: Multiple domestic devices are under maintenance, and overseas devices have some planned maintenance [32] - **Demand**: Downstream polyester and weaving industries have reduced operating rates, and orders are decreasing [32] - **Inventory**: There is a slight accumulation of inventory in January - February, but the pressure is not large [32] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for 05 contract, and focus on the range of [4980 - 5100] [33] Ethylene Glycol - **Summary**: The valuation is relatively low. The domestic supply load has increased, while the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The port inventory is rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January - February [35] - **Price Information**: EG05 closed at 3614 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 101 yuan/ton [34][35] - **Supply**: Multiple domestic devices have changed their operating status, and overseas devices have some planned maintenance [35] - **Demand**: Downstream polyester and weaving industries have reduced operating rates, and orders are decreasing [35] - **Inventory**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February [35] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds, and focus on the range of [3700 - 3770] [36] Methanol - **Summary**: The valuation is not low, and the comprehensive profit is weak. The domestic and overseas device operating rates have decreased, and the demand is slightly weak. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and there is a game between weak reality and strong expectation [39][40] - **Price Information**: The valuation of methanol is at the 16.0% quantile level in the past six months, and the East China basis is strengthening [39] - **Supply**: Domestic and overseas devices have reduced their operating rates, and the import volume in January is expected to be about 850,000 tons [39][40] - **Demand**: The demand from the olefin industry and traditional downstream industries is weak [39][40] - **Inventory**: The (port) inventory has been significantly reduced [40] - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and the demand is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Pay attention to the range of [2180 - 2240] [41] Urea - **Summary**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the supply is increasing with the resumption of production of previous maintenance devices. The short - term demand is relatively strong, but it will enter the off - season during the festival. The price has a ceiling and a floor under the policies of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" [43][44] - **Price Information**: The main contract of urea closed at 1801 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 yuan/ton [42][44] - **Supply**: The operating rates of coal - based and gas - based urea devices are rising, and the daily output is at a high level [44] - **Demand**: The winter storage is progressing steadily, and the demand from compound fertilizers and melamine industries is strong, but the export is weakening month - on - month [43][44] - **Inventory**: The social inventory is still at a relatively high level [43] - **Strategy**: The winter storage has limited positive effects, and the supply pressure is increasing. Pay attention to the range of [1760 - 1790] [45] Natural Gas - **Summary**: Affected by cold air, the demand has been boosted in the short - term, leading to a price rebound. However, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under pressure in the long - term [49] - **Price Information**: On January 19, the NG主力 contract closed at $2.702 per million British thermal units, up 0.75% [48] - **Supply**: In December 2025, the natural gas production of industrial enterprises above designated size increased steadily. The number of natural gas rigs in the US decreased [49] - **Demand**: The proportion of natural gas heavy - duty trucks in the terminal sales of heavy - duty trucks was 26.00% from January to November 2025 [49] - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 9, the US natural gas inventory decreased by 71 billion cubic feet [49] - **Strategy**: In the winter, the demand for heating provides support, but the supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the range of [3.361 - 3.991] [49] Asphalt - **Summary**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, and the price has followed the decline of crude oil. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the cracking spread is gradually returning to normal but still has room for compression [54] - **Price Information**: The BU主力 contract closed at 3142 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [52] - **Supply**: The production in December 2025 increased slightly, and the operating rate has changed [53] - **Demand**: The demand has entered the off - season, and the shipment volume has decreased [53] - **Inventory**: The inventory of 70 sample enterprises has increased [53] - **Strategy**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still uncertain. Pay attention to the range of [3100 - 3200] [54] Glass - **Summary**: The terminal real - estate demand is weak, and the cost support has weakened. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the price is expected to continue to decline [58] - **Price Information**: FG05 closed at 1070 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton [56][58] - **Supply**: The daily melting volume has slightly increased, but supply reduction is still needed [58] - **Demand**: The demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and the number of deep - processing orders is low [58] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of [1040 - 1080] [58] Soda Ash - **Summary**: The operating rate of production enterprises has increased, and the factory inventory is gradually decreasing from a high level. The demand from the float glass industry is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [62] - **Price Information**: SA05 closed at 1192 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 42 yuan/ton [60][62] - **Supply**: The second - phase 2.8 million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and the capacity utilization rate has increased to 87% [62] - **Demand**: The real - estate demand is weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased, resulting in insufficient demand [62] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of [1150 - 1200] [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is affected by factors such as tariff expectations and market liquidity. Although there are some negative factors, the sentiment is not overly pessimistic in the context of a bullish precious metals market and loose US financial market liquidity expectations. In the double - wide cycle, the non - ferrous metals sector is generally regarded positively. However, the prices of different metals will show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals. [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: On January 19th, LME copper 3M rose 1.28% to $12,987/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 101,680 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 3,850 tons to 147,425 tons, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by about 10,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The SHFE copper spot import loss was about 1,300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,440 yuan/ton, slightly widening month - on - month. [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The expectation of Trump's additional tariffs on key minerals has weakened, and the US plan to impose additional tariffs on 8 European countries has cooled market sentiment. However, with the strong performance of precious metals and the expectation of loose liquidity in the US financial market, the sentiment is not pessimistic. The copper ore supply remains tight, the LME spot market is strong, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract today is 100,000 - 103,500 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,200/ton. [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: On January 19th, LME aluminum closed up 1.12% at $3,165/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,225 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum weighted contract position slightly increased to 698,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 tons to 141,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 15,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and the aluminum bar social inventory increased by 9,000 tons. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 485,000 tons. [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The precious metals market has strengthened again, and market sentiment has improved. The high spot premium of US aluminum and the low LME global aluminum inventory at multi - year lows limit the downside of aluminum prices. Although high prices still affect domestic downstream demand, as prices decline, downstream inventory replenishment may increase. Coupled with the expectation of "rush - to - export" in the photovoltaic industry, the aluminum price may be relatively strong in the short term. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract today is 23,900 - 24,400 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,120 - 3,200/ton. [5][6] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On January 19th, the price of cast aluminum alloy stabilized. The main AD2603 contract closed up 0.68% at 22,890 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 24,600 lots, and the trading volume was 11,100 lots, a decrease month - on - month. The warehouse receipts decreased by 400 tons to 69,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 and AD2603 contracts was 1,200 yuan/ton, slightly widening month - on - month. The average price of mainstream domestic ADC12 remained flat, and the price of imported ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three regions decreased by 300 tons to 43,200 tons. [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, and supply - side disturbances continue. However, demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. [9] Lead - **Market Information**: On Monday, the SHFE lead index fell 1.65% to 17,185 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 112,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME lead 3S fell $26.5 to $2,048.5/ton compared to the previous day, with a total position of 166,000 lots. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,025 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,600 tons, and the domestic primary basis was - 135 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 206,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warehouse receipts were 43,700 tons. [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead concentrates has declined, and the operating rate of primary lead has remained high and increased slightly. The raw material inventory on the recycling side has increased, and the weekly operating rate of recycled lead has increased marginally. The lead price is still close to the upper limit of the long - term oscillation range, and the supply of lead ingots has increased marginally. The operating rate of downstream battery manufacturers has improved marginally, and the social inventory of lead ingots has increased. After the winter cooling, the transportation of waste batteries has become difficult, the scrap pricing coefficient has increased, and the smelting profit of recycled lead has declined slightly. The lead price has given back some of its gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fades. However, in the double - wide cycle, the non - ferrous metals sector is still regarded positively. The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the SHFE - LME ratio need to be observed. [11][12] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Monday, the SHFE zinc index fell 1.17% to 24,456 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 232,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME zinc 3S fell $41.5 to $3,222.5/ton compared to the previous day, with a total position of 232,200 lots. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,420 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 40 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was at par, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was 40 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 33,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,500 tons. [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The port inventory of zinc ore has decreased slightly, and the import TC of zinc concentrates has decreased slightly. However, the increase in zinc price has slightly increased zinc smelting profits, and the industrial situation has not improved significantly. The social inventory of zinc ingots has started to increase, and the SHFE - LME ratio has stopped rising and declined. Since December 24, 2025, the domestic zinc - copper ratio has reached a new low since the listing of SHFE zinc in 2007, and since January 9, 2026, the domestic zinc - aluminum ratio has reached a new low since 2013. The zinc price has a large potential for catch - up growth compared to copper and aluminum. The zinc price is still in the process of catching up with the macro - attribute of the sector. It has given back some of its gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fades. However, in the double - wide cycle, the non - ferrous metals sector is still regarded positively. The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the SHFE - LME ratio need to be observed. [14] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 19th, the tin price continued to weaken. The SHFE tin main contract closed at 389,500 yuan/ton, a 3.88% decrease from the previous day. The smelting operating rates of tin ingots in Yunnan and Jiangxi were generally stable at a high level. Yunnan was about 87.81%, basically unchanged and production was normal. Jiangxi's refined tin output was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar has accelerated, and the increase in tin price has boosted the enthusiasm for resumption. In addition, it is estimated that about 5,000 tons of tin ore will be imported in December, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan has significantly eased compared to the previous period, with an expectation of further import increases. However, after the two regions resumed from maintenance, there was insufficient upward momentum, and there were constraints on the scrap side and downstream high - price waiting - and - seeing. The short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. As of January 16, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,636 tons, an increase of 2,560 tons from last Friday. [15][16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation of tin has improved marginally, but the short - term inventory accumulation trend may continue to put pressure on the price. Coupled with the withdrawal of speculative funds, the tin price may continue to decline in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 360,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME tin is $46,000 - 50,000/ton. [17] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 19th, the nickel price rebounded after hitting a low. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 142,710 yuan/ton, a 0.66% increase from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand gradually declined. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was reported at 7,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The nickel ore price remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $54.54/wet ton, and the price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $23/wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The price of nickel iron increased significantly, and the average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,012 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day. [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory in the short term. It is expected that the SHFE nickel will still fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for the SHFE nickel price is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - 19,000/ton. [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 144,461 yuan in the evening session, a 2.84% decrease from the previous working day. The MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 143,500 - 146,300 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 4,100 yuan (- 2.75%) from the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 140,600 - 143,700 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 3.30% from the previous day. The LC2605 contract closed at 147,260 yuan, a 0.73% increase from the previous day's closing price. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan. [22][23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic sentiment has eased, and the lithium price fluctuated widely on Monday. The progress of mine type change in Jiangxi mines has been made, but even if the mining license is obtained, there are still procedures such as the safety production license and environmental impact assessment approval, and it is difficult to directly translate into supply at present. The impact of this event on the sentiment level should be mainly concerned. If the increase in lithium price is fully transmitted to the end - users, the increase in battery cost will suppress some energy - storage demand, and the current price still has a certain emotional premium. The lithium carbonate price has fluctuated greatly recently, and there are many disturbances in the industrial and macro aspects. It is recommended to wait and see or make a light - position attempt. Pay attention to the market atmosphere, demand policies, downstream acceptance willingness, and changes in position on the disk. The reference range for the GZFE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 140,200 - 151,000 yuan/ton. [23] Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 19, 2026, as of 3 pm, the alumina index fell 0.69% to 2,726 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 704,400 lots, an increase of 12,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,565 yuan/ton, at a discount of 168 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $305/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 82 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Monday were reported at 187,900 tons, an increase of 111,000 tons from the previous trading day. The CIF price in Guinea remained at $63/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at $60/ton. [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the resumption of production in the AXIS mine is expected to cause the ore price to decline in an oscillatory manner. Pay attention to the support at the import cost position of Guinea ore. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction in alumina and copper smelting, and the market expectation for the implementation of supply - contraction policies in the future has increased. However, continued rebound still faces three difficulties: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward - moving cost support, and the pressure of expiring warehouse receipt delivery. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The cost - performance of chasing up is not high. One can wait for an opportunity to short the near - month contract at a high price. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [26] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,305 yuan/ton, a 0.21% (+ 30) increase on the day, with a unilateral position of 263,700 lots, an increase of 2,294 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Foshan market was reported at 14,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Wuxi market was reported at 14,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day. The Foshan basis was - 455 (- 130), and the Wuxi basis was - 205 (- 80). The Foshan Hongwang 201 was reported at 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the Hongwang annealed 430 was reported at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in Shandong was reported at 1,015 yuan/nickel, unchanged from the previous day. The recycling price of 304 scrap steel industrial materials in Baoding was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day.

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The gold market is affected by the escalation of the US - EU tariff war, with gold prices rising steadily and a recommendation to go long on gold. For silver, due to strong speculative sentiment and inventory adjustments, cautious participation is advised [1]. - In the base metals market, electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short - term; alumina prices are likely to be weak and volatile; zinc and lead are recommended to be sold on rallies [2]. - In the industrial silicon market, the price is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton, and short - selling at high prices is an option. For lithium carbonate, due to a decline in market risk appetite, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are in the process of finding a bottom; corn prices are expected to oscillate within a range; oils and fats are expected to be volatile; sugar futures are recommended to be short - sold, and call options can be sold; cotton is recommended to be observed; eggs and hogs' futures prices are expected to be weak and volatile [4][5]. - In the energy and chemical market, LLDPE is expected to be volatile in the short - term and long positions can be taken at low prices in the medium - term; PVC is recommended for a reverse spread strategy; methanol is expected to rise in the near future; glass is recommended to wait and see or buy glass and short - sell soda ash; PP is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term and short - sold at high prices in the medium - term; crude oil is recommended to be short - sold at high prices; styrene is expected to be volatile in the short - term and long positions can be taken at low prices in the medium - term; soda ash is recommended to buy glass and short - sell soda ash [7][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: On Monday, precious metals rose. London gold exceeded $4600 per ounce, and London silver reached $93 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: The US - EU tariff war has escalated. The EU will hold an emergency summit. German Chancellor Merz said the EU would respond cautiously. Powell will support Fed Governor Cook. Domestic gold ETFs had a significant inflow of 2.2 tons. COMEX gold inventory remained at 1123.8 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory decreased by 0.1 tons to 100.0 tons. SPDR gold ETF holdings remained at 1085.7 tons. COMEX silver inventory remained at 13346 tons, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 9.6 tons to 617.7 tons. iShares silver ETF holdings remained at 16073 tons. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 161 tons to 612 tons last week. London's silver inventory increased from 27183 tons to 27814 tons at the end of December. India imported about 750 tons of silver in November [1]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the escalation of the tariff war and the steady rise of gold prices, it is recommended to go long. For silver, due to strong speculative sentiment and inventory adjustments, cautious participation is advised [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.69% to 24090 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 175 yuan/ton, and the LME price was 3138 US dollars/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of aluminum products increased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: With the macro - sentiment being mixed and traditional aluminum demand being weak at high prices, the market sentiment has cooled slightly. It is expected that the price will remain high and volatile in the short - term [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.65% to 2733 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The increasing inventory intensifies the short - selling sentiment. Coupled with the decline in bauxite prices, the cost support continues to decline. It is expected that the price will be weak and volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the production cuts in February [2]. Zinc and Lead - Market Performance: On January 19, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 24450 yuan/ton and 17185 yuan/ton respectively, with a change of +300 and +290 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 24450 yuan/ton and - 17185 yuan/ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 34.8 and - 44.18 US dollars/ton respectively. Zinc's seven - region inventory on January 19 was 12.2 million tons, an increase of 0.36 million tons compared with January 15. Lead's five - region inventory on January 19 was 3.41 million tons, an increase of 0.16 million tons compared with January 15 [2]. - Fundamentals: In the zinc market, the macro - sentiment pushed zinc prices to a high level, but the fundamentals showed weak supply and demand. Domestic consumption is in the traditional off - season. The operating rates of galvanizing and die - casting have declined, and downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices. The supply has increased significantly, the processing fees have jumped, and the seven - region zinc ingot social inventory has increased, but the low LME inventory provides support. In the lead market, the domestic lead ingot inventory has increased, the consumption of electric bicycle batteries has weakened, downstream procurement is cautious, and the spot discount has widened. It is expected that lead prices will decline relatively [2]. - Trading Strategy: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector has partially dissipated. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the short - term [2]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Monday morning, it opened flat and fluctuated upward throughout the day. The main 05 contract closed at 8845 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 2.79%. The trading volume decreased by 3702 lots to 235,000 lots. The funds invested in the variety increased by 0.06 billion yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 288 lots to 11571 lots [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased by 7 compared with last week, mainly due to the decrease in Sichuan. The social inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly this week. On the demand side, both the polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution. The polysilicon production in January is expected to decline to 100,000 tons. The organic silicon industry is holding up prices, and the weekly production has continued to decrease slightly. The operating rate of aluminum alloy has remained stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: Currently, there is an orange weather warning in the northwest and rumors of production cuts on the supply side this week, and the production cut expectations of polysilicon and organic silicon on the demand side still exist. The market is more concerned about the actual production cuts of large factories this week. It is rumored that the variety will turn to inventory reduction. The price is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton, and short - selling at high prices with a light position can be considered [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 147,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 1060 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 0.73% [3]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was 2040 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 45 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day. The SMM electric carbon price was 151,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7000 yuan/ton. The morning price of high - quality lithium carbonate by Mysteel was 146,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10550 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the weekly production was 22605 tons, a week - on - week increase of 70 tons. The production in December was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4%. SMM expects the supply in January to be 97970 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%. On the demand side, the planned production of lithium iron phosphate in January is expected to be 363,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.0%; the planned production of ternary materials in January is expected to be 78,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%. In terms of inventory, it is expected to maintain a tight balance in January due to rush exports. The sample inventory was 109600 tons, a decrease of 263 tons. Among them, the smelting link had an inventory increase of 1345 tons, the downstream link had an inventory decrease of 888 tons, and the trader link had an inventory decrease of 720 tons. The total inventory days remained at 28 days. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 27,698 lots, an increase of 240 lots. In terms of funds, the short - term risk appetite in the market has decreased, and the invested funds have flowed out significantly to 26.77 billion yuan, an increase of 120 million yuan [3]. - Trading Strategy: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that starting from the settlement on January 21, 2026, the daily limit range of lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, and the margin ratio will be increased. Currently, the market risk appetite has decreased, the long - buying sentiment has declined, and there is significant downward pressure on the price, with relatively large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Monday morning, it opened flat and fluctuated slightly throughout the day. The main 05 contract closed at 50505 yuan/ton, an increase of 305 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.61%. The trading volume decreased by 1649 lots to 44,571 lots. The funds invested in the variety decreased by 0.74 billion yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4560 lots [3]. - Fundamentals: In the spot market this week, downstream buyers are in a wait - and - see state. On the supply side, the weekly production decreased by more than 10%, and the industry inventory increased slightly this week. On the demand side, the planned production of silicon wafers in January remained stable, while the planned production of battery cells and components decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. The cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products on the 9th has a certain support for component exports during the window period, and the demand side is expected to be stable during the off - season [3]. - Trading Strategy: After the "anti - monopoly" event interview, the market has fully priced in this negative news. The near - month balance sheet has changed from loose to tight supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the emotional impact brought by the subsequent feedback of the industry association on this interview event [3]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: The CBOT soybean market was closed overnight [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term supply is loose, and there is a large supply expectation in South America in the long - term, and the early harvest has begun. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and the exports have improved marginally. In general, the global supply and demand is expected to be loose [4][5]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are in the process of finding a bottom. The domestic far - month contracts are also suppressed by the large supply expectation in South America, and the near - month contracts depend on the game between the amount of state - owned soybean sales and customs clearances [5]. Corn - Market Performance: The corn futures price declined, while the spot price in the corn - producing areas continued to rise, and the port price declined slightly [5]. - Fundamentals: Currently, more than half of the grain has been sold, and the selling pressure is not large. Farmers are reluctant to sell and are holding up prices. The inventories of the north - south ports, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are lower than in previous years. The northeast deep - processing enterprises are highly motivated to build inventories. It is expected that the short - term spot price will be strong. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [5]. - Trading Strategy: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Oils and Fats - Market Performance: The Malaysian market changed little yesterday [5]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, it is in the weak seasonal production - reduction period. On the demand side, exports have improved month - on - month. The high - frequency ITS data shows that Malaysia's exports from January 1 to 15 increased by 18% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term supply is loose, and there will be weak seasonal production reduction in the long - term [5]. - Trading Strategy: Oils and fats are expected to be volatile. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [5]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The basis between the Nanning spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract was 62 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar after duty - paid was 407 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The international raw sugar price has dropped significantly due to the pressure from Indian production. The pressure from India will continue until February, and then the impact of Brazilian sugarcane growth and the sugar - alcohol price difference on Brazil's next - season production should be observed. Currently, it is still in a volatile pattern. From a domestic perspective, the overall production and sales progress this year is slow, and the spot pressure in the future market is greater. SR05 is priced by imports and domestic production. Under the double pressure of imported and domestic sugar, sugar will follow the fundamental logic after the macro - sentiment cools down [5]. - Trading Strategy: In the futures market, it is recommended to short - sell, and call options can be sold [5]. Cotton - Market Performance: The ICE US cotton futures price fluctuated slightly overnight, and the international crude oil price stopped falling and rebounded [5]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, India's CCI started selling cotton in the 25/26 season, and about 114,000 bales were sold on the first day. Brazil exported 192,300 tons of cotton in the first three weeks of January, with an average daily export volume of 17,500 tons, a 7% decrease compared with the average daily export volume in January of last year. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price started to fluctuate slightly, and the medium - term upward trend is still valid. In December 2025, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.3% and a year - on - year increase of 31.0% [5]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a price range of 14,400 - 14,900 yuan/ton [5]. Eggs - Market Performance: The egg futures price declined, and the egg spot price partially decreased [5]. - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production has decreased, but the pace of capacity reduction has slowed down. As the egg price rises, the willingness of producers to sell has increased, the arrival volume in the sales areas has increased, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders has decreased, and the room for further price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline of the egg price after the stocking period ends [5]. - Trading Strategy: The room for further increase in the spot price is limited, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [5]. Hogs - Market Performance: The hog futures price declined, and the hog spot price decreased in the north and increased in the south [5]. - Fundamentals: The hog slaughter volume in January is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end. The demand is stable in the short - term and will gradually increase at the end of the month. The short - term supply pressure is not large, and the high demand supports the hog price. After the impact of snowfall ends, the hog price may decline in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm recently [5]. - Trading Strategy: After the impact of snowfall ends, the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [5]. Energy and Chemical Market LLDPE - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract declined slightly yesterday. The low - price spot

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Tin - Short - term price is highly volatile due to market sentiment. After a sharp decline on Friday night, it's advisable to be cautious in the short - term. Consider a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [1]. Copper - In the long - term, the price bottom center is expected to rise due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. In the short - term, the price is strong because of global inventory structural imbalance and supply concerns. However, real terminal demand is weak. With the cooling of speculative sentiment and easing of tariff expectations, the price may return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to CL premium and LME inventory changes, with the main contract supported at 97500 - 98500 [3]. Nickel - Recent trading is centered around macro and Indonesian ore RKAB quota. Short - term ore news has limited further driving force. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 135000 - 145000 [5]. Zinc - The price is supported by domestic ore shortage and pressured by expected imported ore supply and negative demand feedback. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Focus on zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract supported around 23800 [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals show some resilience in the off - season. With a loose macro environment and strengthened supervision, there is resistance to further price increases. The market has intensified long - short divergence. The short - term market may adjust widely, with the main contract running between 140,000 - 150,000. Use short - term range trading [11]. Aluminum - Alumina prices lack upward momentum due to loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract in the range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to domestic inventory accumulation speed, downstream consumption resilience, and overseas monetary policies and geopolitical events [13]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term price range is limited. The ADC12 price is expected to continue high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Focus on raw material price changes, actual inflow of imported goods, and downstream pre - holiday inventory building [15]. Stainless Steel - Raw material news drives sentiment and strengthens cost support. Social inventory is steadily digested, but downstream demand in the off - season is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 13800 - 14500. Pay attention to ore news and downstream inventory building [18]. Polysilicon - The demand outlook has improved due to export - grabbing demand, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. The price is supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. Component production may increase, which is beneficial for inventory digestion. In the cooling period, it's advisable to wait and see, and focus on later production cuts and downstream demand recovery [20]. Industrial Silicon - The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, with low - level oscillation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to supply - side production changes and potential further polysilicon production cuts [21]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.81% to 414050 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 78.57% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and refined tin imports increased by 127.19%. In December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69% to 9549 tons, and social inventory increased by 36.07% to 10175 tons [1]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.70% to 101855 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased significantly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80% to 117.81 million tons. In November, imports decreased by 3.90% [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased by 17.20% to 32.09 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 18.26% to 21.35 million tons [3]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.47% to 149350 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss decreased by 74.48% [5]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel increased by 1.09% to 112237 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% to 48180 tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.16% to 285732 tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 2.40% to 24800 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24% to 55.21 million tons. In November, exports increased by 402.59% [8]. - **Inventory**: Global visible inventory decreased slightly, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 0.08% to 11.84 million tons [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.63% to 158000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased significantly [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04% to 99200 tons, and demand decreased by 2.50% [11]. - **Inventory**: Total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 12.23% to 56664 tons in December [11]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.66% to 24030 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production increased by 1.08% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [13]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 3.08% to 73.60 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.41% to 48.8 million tons [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.42% to 23900 yuan/ton, and the scrap - to - refined price difference decreased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly to 4.89 million tons [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price decreased by 0.35% to 14350 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures price difference increased [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% to 171.93 million tons [18]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% to 45.07 million tons [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: N - type polysilicon average price increased slightly, and the basis of N - type material decreased by 23.52% [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 9.66% to 2.15 million tons, and monthly net exports increased significantly [20]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% to 32.1 million tons [20]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged, and the basis increased [21]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and exports increased by 21.78% [21]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 0.54% to 55.50 million tons [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of rubber has been significantly affected by recent macro - sentiment fluctuations. With the implementation of macro - easing policies from the central bank and changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, geopolitical situations, and trade policies, the macro - sentiment has retreated, leading to a callback and differentiation in commodities [1][2]. - The price of Shanghai rubber RU is mainly determined by future demand, destocking expectations, and valuation, and is highly influenced by macro - sentiment. Overseas production areas are in the pre - low - season rush to increase production, with sufficient raw materials. High inventory from increased imports in December and downstream inventory pressure will suppress prices. The future trend of rubber prices is expected to fluctuate with sentiment and remain in a wide - range shock pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - sentiment fluctuations impact the rubber market. The implementation of China's central bank's easing policies and the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, along with geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, have led to a retreat in macro - sentiment and a callback in commodities [1]. - For RU, domestic suspension of tapping, destocking of whole latex, future demand, and valuation expectations are key factors, while being highly influenced by macro - sentiment. Overseas production areas are approaching the low - season, with sufficient raw materials and high inventory from imports suppressing prices. Downstream inventory pressure and uncertain domestic and foreign demand also affect prices [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range**: The short - term reference shock range for RU2605 is 15,500 - 16,200, with important pressure at 16,000 and support around 15,600. The shock range for NR2603 is 12,500 - 13,200, with important support at 12,600 [15]. - **Trend Judgment**: With stable pre - festival stocking demand downstream and a neutral - to - loose supply upstream, rubber prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment and policy stimuli, and will mainly fluctuate in the future [15]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Adopt a neutral view on RU and NR, and be cautious at current price levels. Consider using hedging strategies such as protective options or spread strategies. Pay attention to the high - basis situation of RU and the low - spread expansion opportunity of NR - BR [16]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory, short - sell rubber futures (RU2605) to lock in sales profits, buy out - of - the - money put options (RU2605 - P15500), and sell call options (RU2605 - C16750) [29]. - **Procurement Management**: Enterprises with low inventory and future procurement plans can buy rubber far - month futures (NR2603 and subsequent contracts) to lock in procurement costs and buy out - of - the - money call options (RU2605 - C16250) [29]. 3.2 Important Information and Concerns 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The central bank announced a series of policies to increase liquidity and stimulate the economy. Tire enterprise开工 rates increased, and vehicle sales showed growth in some segments. Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports increased in 2025. There is a probability of an El Nino event in Q3 2026 [30][31]. - **Negative Information**: Geopolitical risks decreased, leading to a drop in oil prices and dragging down the chemical sector. The Fed may "pause rate cuts". South Korea's natural rubber imports decreased in 2025, and China's natural rubber social inventory increased. Rainfall in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia decreased, increasing raw - material supply expectations [32][33][34]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus - Monitor weather changes in production areas and the progress of tapping in high - latitude regions. Pay attention to the release of import and export data, port and social inventories, and the registration of whole - latex warehouse receipts. Track downstream tire pre - festival stocking and production - sales rhythms. Keep an eye on macro - sentiment and relevant economic data [35]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: Last week, commodities continued to fluctuate and adjust, with rubber showing a relatively strong shock, reaching a high point before回调. RU performed relatively strongly [36]. - **Fund Trends**: The net short - position of Shanghai rubber increased, while the short - position of 20 - standard rubber decreased, and profits increased during the week [41]. 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - **Spot Price Changes**: The prices of some rubber varieties changed slightly, with some showing small increases or decreases [45][47]. - **Delivery - Product Price Trends**: The price trends of 20 - standard rubber delivery products are presented in relevant charts [49]. - **Term Structure Analysis**: The basis of whole latex is regressing, and the term structure of NR and the spread between different varieties and contracts show certain characteristics [50][58]. - **External Market Conditions**: The unilateral trends and term - spread structures of external markets such as Tocom RSS3 and Sicom 20 - standard rubber are presented, and the internal - external spreads between RU and Japanese rubber and NR and Singapore rubber are analyzed [63][65][67]. - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Indicators**: The virtual - to - physical ratio of rubber is higher than the historical average, and the bullish sentiment has declined, while the downstream tire sentiment has returned to neutral [74]. - **Variety Spread Analysis**: The spread between dark and light rubber has widened, and the spread between natural and synthetic rubber has narrowed. The reasons are related to supply - demand and inventory situations [78][92]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw - Material Costs**: Domestic production areas have suspended tapping, and the price of Yunnan rubber blocks has remained stable. In Thailand, raw - material prices have increased slightly due to the end of the harvesting season and competition for procurement [96]. - **Processing Profits**: The processing profits of domestic and imported rubber have shown different trends, with some showing slight decreases [103][106]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Main - Producing Country Output**: The global natural - rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.3%, with different growth rates in each country [108]. - **Domestic Import Situation**: China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased in 2025 [111]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Main - Producing Country Total Demand**: China's demand rebounded in November, and the total demand of most overseas main - producing countries also increased month - on - month [117]. - **Tire Production and Sales**: Tire enterprise开工 rates increased last week, mainly due to pre - festival stocking. Tire exports showed different trends in different segments, and the EU's anti - dumping investigation may affect future exports [119]. - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry has been stable, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand [127][128]. - **Supporting Demand - Automobiles**: Domestic automobile sales have been strong, but the inventory pressure has increased. The export of new - energy vehicles and semi - trailers has been strong [131]. - **Supporting Demand - Heavy - Duty Trucks and Construction Machinery**: The sales of heavy - duty trucks and construction machinery have increased, but the long - term growth of demand may be limited by the slowdown in fixed - asset investment [134]. - **Overseas Tire Production**: The production of Japanese tires has been stable, and Thailand's tire shipment index has increased year - on - year [136]. - **Overseas Tire Demand**: US tire imports have increased despite weakening auto sales. European passenger - car production and sales have been stable [138]. - **Other Rubber Product Demand**: The PMI data in December showed an increase, and the开工 of other rubber downstream industries has further improved [144]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the rubber warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.52 million tons, and the 20 - standard rubber warehouse - receipt inventory decreased slightly by 0.02 million tons [146]. - **Social Inventory**: As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased, with changes in the inventory and turnover rates of bonded and general - trade warehouses [148].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon is currently experiencing a double reduction in supply and demand, with high inventory difficult to deplete, but strong cost support below, so the short - term market is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the start - up changes in the north [2]. - Polysilicon currently has weak supply and demand and inventory pressure, but the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve due to the shutdown of leading enterprises, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price - As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract oscillated, closing at 8,605 yuan/ton on January 16 [2]. - As of January 16, 2026, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 421 oxygen - passed was 9,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [6]. Supply - In Xinjiang, there are both production increases and decreases, with an overall reduction. It is rumored that ore mining is restricted due to weather, and large factories may shut down about 30 furnaces. In Yunnan, production is mainly for integrated supporting or long - term order delivery, and in Sichuan, only a sample large factory is in production. The overall output of industrial silicon has continued to decline month - on - month [2]. - As of January 16, 2026, the number of operating furnaces of industrial silicon nationwide was 227, a decrease of 7 from the previous week; the operating rate was 28.16%, a decrease of 0.87%; the weekly output was 85,700 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week [17]. Demand - The start - up of polysilicon is weak, with leading enterprises gradually shutting down from the middle of the month, and the output is expected to decline. The start - up of organic silicon remains stable, and is expected to remain stable or decline slightly before the Spring Festival. The price of aluminum alloy ingots has risen with the price of aluminum, but the downstream die - casting enterprises have limited acceptance, and the start - up expectation has been lowered. In November, the export of industrial silicon was 54,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22% and a year - on - year increase of 4% [2]. Cost - The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [2]. Inventory - As of January 15, the total social inventory of industrial silicon nationwide was 555,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [2]. Spread - As of January 16, 2026, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 250 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [10]. Polysilicon Price - As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type dense material was 59,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract corrected from a high level, closing at 50,200 yuan/ton on January 16 [3]. - As of January 16, 2026, the price of N - type re - fed material was 61,000 yuan/ton, the price of N - type mixed material was 56,500 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type granular material was 58,000 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [13]. Supply - The expected output of polysilicon in January is 104,800 tons. Due to the gradual shutdown of some leading enterprises from the middle of the month, the output in February may be less than 90,000 tons [3]. Demand - Polysilicon enterprises' quotations remain high at 63 - 65 yuan/kg, but downstream silicon wafer enterprises are holding down prices and waiting and seeing. Actual transactions are mainly for executing previous orders and a small number of scattered orders. Although there is a rush - to - install demand before the export tax rebate is cancelled in April, the terminal is still in the off - season, the price increase has not been passed on to silicon wafers, the crystal - pulling link is suffering serious losses, and the acceptance of high - priced polysilicon is low. In November, the import volume of polysilicon was 1,055.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27%; the export volume was 3,230.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 109% [3]. Cost - The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [3]. Inventory - As of January 16, 2026, the polysilicon factory inventory was 297,100 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons from the previous week [21]. Downstream Silicon Wafers - As of January 16, 2026, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm) and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.375, 1.375, 1.475 and 1.675 yuan/piece respectively, unchanged from last week. The silicon wafer market is generally stable, leading enterprises' quotations remain stable, the transaction prices of second - and third - tier enterprises have declined slightly. In the terminal off - season, buyers strongly resist high prices, battery factories have good profits and maintain small - order procurement for rigid demand [24]. Battery Cells - As of January 16, 2026, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.405, 0.405, 0.405 and 0.405 yuan/watt respectively, an increase of 0.02 yuan/watt from last week. The battery cell market continues to strongly support prices. Exporters are locking in export orders in advance to cope with the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate policy on April 1, and the export price is significantly higher than the domestic sales price [28]. Components - As of January 16, 2026, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.72, 0.735, 0.72 and 0.735 yuan/watt respectively, an increase of 0.035, 0.03, 0.035 and 0.03 yuan/watt from last week. Affected by the upcoming cancellation of the export tax rebate policy, component manufacturers generally raised their quotations [32]. Organic Silicon - As of January 16, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week. Recently, the profit of organic silicon monomer factories has improved, and the start - up has remained stable [35]. Aluminum Alloy - As of January 16, 2026, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 23,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week. The price of aluminum continues to be strong, but the downstream die - casting enterprises have limited acceptance, and the start - up expectation of alloy enterprises has been lowered [39].