Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ★☆☆ [1] - Douyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides a daily analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It assesses the supply and demand, price trends, and market factors affecting each product, offering investment suggestions based on short - and long - term outlooks [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans had a 44,521 - ton auction, with 27,733 tons sold at an average price of 4,145 yuan/ton. Market supply increased marginally, while demand was weak. The price gap with imported soybeans is shrinking. US crop inspections showed increased pod numbers in some states. Weather, policies, and imported soybeans should be monitored [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - As of August 17, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%. Future weather may challenge new - season crops. China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed boosted meal prices. 8 - 10 month soybean arrivals are expected to be around 10 million tons. Supply is sufficient this year, but there are uncertainties in the far - month. The market is cautiously bullish on soybean meal [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US crop inspections showed positive results for soybeans. The FOB price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is negative. The price difference between Malaysian and Indonesian crude palm oil is weakening. Long - term, a buy - on - dips strategy is maintained, but short - term volatility risks should be noted [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures had a weak rebound. Chinese companies may import Australian rapeseed, with new crops expected to arrive at the end of the year. The market is expected to rebound in the short - term, and new import trends should be watched [6] Corn - As of August 19, China's CGSCA had 15 imported corn auctions, with a low total成交 rate of 36.38%. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71% as of August 17. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - Short - term spot prices are strengthening, but mid - term prices are expected to decline due to high supply. Policy may support prices at a certain level. A sell - on - rallies hedging strategy is recommended [8] Eggs - Egg futures are accelerating downward. Spot prices are weak, and over - capacity is a long - term issue. Mid - term, prices may continue to fall to reduce capacity. Short - term, profit - taking risks should be watched [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both increasing supply and demand, but the inventory pressure remains significant. Recently, driven by macro - sentiment, the silicon price has been relatively strong and is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. - For polysilicon, the supply side has a strong incremental expectation, the demand side has no significant change, the number of warehouse receipts is gradually increasing, but the bullish sentiment is still strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon Cost & Profit - The prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded due to anti - involution sentiment and increased demand. However, as the southwestern production areas enter the wet season, the electricity cost has significantly decreased, weakening the cost support for silicon prices [2]. - In July, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 1,329 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,032 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 988 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,061 yuan/ton [32]. Supply - The number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises has increased overall this week. Northern large factories have gradually resumed supply, and after the cost in the southwestern production areas has decreased, the resumption of production has continued, with the number of open furnaces increasing. The overall supply shows an incremental trend [2]. - On the week of August 14, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 10 compared with the previous week [33]. Demand - The incremental demand mainly comes from the polysilicon sector. As the polysilicon price has reached a high level and the southwestern production areas have entered the wet season, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work has greatly increased. The polysilicon production in July increased to around 110,000 tons and is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons in August. The organic silicon industry has gradually recovered after some enterprises resumed work after accident - related rectification, with rigid demand for industrial silicon. The demand for silicon - aluminum alloy is weak, with no incremental demand for industrial silicon for the time being [2]. Inventory - The futures price has remained at a high level, and the number of warehouse receipts has been increasing. As silicon enterprises in the southwestern production areas have gradually resumed production, the factory inventories of silicon factories have gradually accumulated [2]. - As of August 14, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons; the total factory inventories of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were 171,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,100 tons. As of August 15, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 50,599 lots, equivalent to 253,000 tons of spot [120]. Market Outlook The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both increasing supply and demand, and the inventory pressure remains significant. Recently, driven by macro - sentiment, the silicon price has been relatively strong and is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Polysilicon Supply - In July, some polysilicon enterprises increased production, mainly concentrated in the southwestern region and Qinghai region, and some enterprises carried out maintenance. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons. In August, the wet season and high prices will further stimulate the start - up of polysilicon bases, and the monthly output is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons [2]. - The polysilicon production last week was 29,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons. As of August 14, the polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons [63]. Demand Based on the current latest silicon material price, the silicon wafer quotation still cannot cover the full cost. Considering the weak demand and the gradual stabilization of upstream raw material prices, the silicon wafer price lacks upward momentum. Some battery cell enterprises have accumulated inventory due to reduced orders, and the price has loosened. The end - market has a low acceptance of high prices, and the overseas component export tax - refund stockpiling is basically completed, with components continuing to weaken [2]. Inventory As of August 14, the total polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.8 GW. As of August 15, the total number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts was 5,600 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts increased significantly [2]. Market Outlook The supply side of silicon materials has a strong incremental expectation, the demand side has no significant change, the number of warehouse receipts is gradually increasing, but the bullish sentiment is still strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment and the implementation of policies [2]. 3. Organic Silicon Supply In July, the operating rate of China's DMC was 67.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22 percentage points, and the DMC output was 199,800 tons, a month - on - month decline [89]. Demand The demand for organic silicon is weak, and the price is declining. As of August 8, the average price of DMC was 11,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.17%; the average price of 107 glue was 12,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92%; the average price of silicone oil was 13,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%. New orders are weak, and monomer factories are selling at reduced prices [95]. 4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy Supply On the week of August 14, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage point [104]. Price The price of silicon - aluminum alloy has rebounded. As of August 15, the average price of ADC12 was 20,350 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%; the average price of A356 was 21,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [107].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The current rubber market lacks clear directional guidance, with long and short factors intertwined, and prices mainly fluctuate within a range. The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply during the peak production season in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply goes smoothly, consider shorting at high prices [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 18, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased by 150 yuan/ton to 14,900 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.02%. The whole milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 235 to - 920, with a growth rate of 20.35%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,600 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.34% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 25 to - 1035, with a growth rate of 2.36%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 to - 80, with a decline rate of 18.75%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 10 to 1130, with a decline rate of 0.88% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In June, Thailand's rubber production increased by 120,400 tons to 392,600 tons, with a growth rate of 44.23%; Indonesia's production decreased by 24,100 tons to 176,200 tons, with a decline rate of 12.03%; India's production increased by 14,700 tons to 62,400 tons, with a growth rate of 30.82%; China's production increased by 6,800 tons to 103,200 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 2.28 to 72.07%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 2.09 to 63.09%. In June, domestic tire production decreased by 100% to 0, and tire export volume increased by 6340,000 to 66,650,000, with a growth rate of 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 10,000 tons to 463,400 tons, with a growth rate of 2.21% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: As of August 18, the bonded area inventory decreased by 11,918 to 619,852, with a decline rate of 1.89%. The factory warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 4,234 to 46,469, with a growth rate of 10.02% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the price of industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to the low level of 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, consider going long at low prices. The main contract has shifted to SI2511 [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On August 18, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) increased by 200 to 795, with a growth rate of 33.61% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 to - 20, with a decline rate of 33.33%; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 5 to - 5, with a growth rate of 50.00%; the 2511 - 2512 spread remained unchanged at - 365; the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 25 to 20, with a growth rate of 500.00%; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 45 to - 30, with a decline rate of 300.00% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In the monthly data, the national industrial silicon production increased by 10,600 tons to 338,300 tons, with a growth rate of 3.23%. Xinjiang's production decreased by 27,000 tons to 150,300 tons, with a decline rate of 15.21%. Yunnan's production increased by 24,900 tons to 41,200 tons, with a growth rate of 153.86%. Sichuan's production increased by 11,500 tons to 48,500 tons, with a growth rate of 31.05%. The national开工率 increased by 1.27 to 52.61%, with a growth rate of 2.47%. Xinjiang's开工率 decreased by 11.71 to 52.59%, with a decline rate of 18.21%. Yunnan's开工率 increased by 18.82 to 32.89%, with a growth rate of 133.76%. Sichuan's开工率 increased by 13.39 to 36.96%, with a growth rate of 56.81%. The production of silicone DMC decreased by 9,500 tons to 199,800 tons, with a decline rate of 4.54%. The production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1,000 tons to 625,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.63%. The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 12,700 tons to 68,300 tons, with a growth rate of 22.77% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.01 to 11.70 tons, with a growth rate of 0.09%. The Yunnan factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.08 to 3.14 tons, with a growth rate of 2.61%. The Sichuan factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.02 to 2.26 tons, with a decline rate of 0.88%. The social inventory decreased by 0.20 to 54.50 tons, with a decline rate of 0.37%. The order inventory increased by 0.06 to 25.36 tons, with a growth rate of 0.22%. The non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.26 to 29.15 tons, with a decline rate of 0.87% [3]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the polysilicon price fluctuated strongly. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider going long at low prices and try shorting by buying put options at high prices when the volatility is low [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 18, the average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) increased by 460 to - 5280, with a growth rate of 8.01% [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 460 to 52,280 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.87%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 50 to - 135, with a growth rate of 27.03%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract increased by 30 to 75, with a growth rate of 66.67% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In the weekly data, the silicon wafer production increased by 0.08 to 12.10 GM, with a growth rate of 0.67%. The polysilicon production decreased by 0.01 to 2.93 tons, with a decline rate of 0.34%. In the monthly data, the polysilicon production increased by 0.49 to 10.10 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The polysilicon import volume decreased by 0.02 to 0.08 tons, with a decline rate of 16.90%. The polysilicon export volume increased by 0.08 to 0.21 tons, with a growth rate of 66.17%. The net export volume of polysilicon increased by 0.10 to 0.13 tons, with a growth rate of 323.61%. The silicon wafer production decreased by 6.09 to 52.75 GM, with a decline rate of 10.35%. The silicon wafer import volume decreased by 0.01 to 0.07 tons, with a decline rate of 15.29%. The silicon wafer export volume decreased by 0.08 to 0.55 tons, with a decline rate of 12.97%. The net export volume of silicon wafer decreased by 0.07 to 0.48 tons, with a decline rate of 12.59%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.12 to 58.54 GM, with a growth rate of 0.21% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.90 to 24.20 tons, with a growth rate of 3.86%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.69 to 19.80 GM, with a growth rate of 3.61%. The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 220 to 5,820 hands, with a growth rate of 3.93% [4]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has obvious over - supply. The inventory is in a re - accumulation pattern. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices. Follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the load adjustment of soda ash plants [5]. - **Glass**: The near - month 09 contract of glass is weak, and the far - month 01 contract fluctuates. The overall spot price is difficult to increase further. The glass industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory preparation of downstream enterprises [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: On August 18, the price of glass 2505 decreased by 7 to 1309 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.53%. The price of glass 2509 decreased by 7 to 1046 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.66%. The 05 basis increased by 7 to - 159, with a growth rate of 4.22% [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The price of soda ash 2505 decreased by 2 to 1450 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.14%. The price of soda ash 2509 decreased by 1 to 1293 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.07%. The 05 basis increased by 2 to - 100, with a growth rate of 1.96% [5]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate increased by 2.24% to 87.32%. The weekly production of soda ash increased by 1.7 tons to 76.13 tons, with a growth rate of 2.23%. The float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 159,600 tons. The photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased by 157.9 to 6342.60 tons, with a growth rate of 2.55%. The soda ash factory warehouse inventory increased by 2.9 tons to 189.38 tons, with a growth rate of 1.54%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 46.66 tons, with a growth rate of 3.85%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged at 23.4 days [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%. The growth rate of the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%. The growth rate of the completed area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%. The growth rate of the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [5]. Group 5: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the log futures price showed a weak correction. It is recommended to go long at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 800 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: On August 18, the 2509 log contract closed at 811 yuan/cubic meter, down 4 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter. The new round of FOB price remained unchanged at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [6]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.182. The import theoretical cost decreased by 0.04 to 818.62 yuan [6]. - **Port Shipment and Departure**: In July, the port shipment volume decreased by 2.7 to 173.3 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1.51%. The number of departure ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6 to 47, with a decline rate of 11.32% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the national coniferous log total inventory was 3.06 million cubic meters, a decrease of 20,000 cubic meters compared with August 8, with a decline rate of 0.65%. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 72,000 cubic meters to 1.854 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 3.74%. The inventory in Jiangsu increased by 55,100 cubic meters to 983,000 cubic meters, with a growth rate of 5.95% [6]. - **Demand**: As of August 15, the national log daily average shipment volume was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters compared with August 8, with a decline rate of 1%. The shipment volume in Shandong decreased by 500 cubic meters to 35,900 cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1%. The shipment volume in Jiangsu increased by 600 cubic meters to 23,200 cubic meters, with a growth rate of 3% [6].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250817: Limited Supply - Demand Contradiction, Upward Macro, and Bullish Oscillation in the Market [1] Core Viewpoint - The supply - demand contradiction of copper is limited, the macro - economic situation is upward, and the copper futures market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [1] Key Points by Section Price Data - The spot supply of copper is tight, the purchasing sentiment has increased, and the spot premium has risen [10] - The LME copper 0 - 3M spread has continued to widen week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index has increased by $0.38 per ton week - on - week to - $37.68 per ton, showing a recovery but still remaining low [15] - The copper concentrate inventory at nine ports has decreased by 62,000 tons week - on - week to 557,600 tons [17] - The spread between refined copper and scrap copper has strengthened [18] - Only one domestic smelter is under maintenance in August, but the number of smelters with production cuts has increased, and the electrolytic copper output is expected to decline slightly month - on - month [20] - The copper import window has opened [21] - The week - on - week change in the electrolytic copper spot inventory is limited, while the bonded - area inventory has continued to increase [23] - The LME copper inventory has hardly changed, and the COMEX copper inventory has continued to accumulate [25] - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods has increased, and downstream purchases have increased [27] - From August 1st to 10th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China have increased by 6% year - on - year and 6% compared with the same period last month [28] - The overall production volume of photovoltaic modules in August has changed little month - on - month [31] - The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August has decreased by 4.9% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year, with the air - conditioner production volume decreasing by 2.8% [33] Macroeconomic Data - China's new social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan [36] - The US CPI in July has increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected; the PPI has increased by 0.9% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year [39] - Two new candidates for the Fed Chair support significant interest - rate cuts [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash market is in a state of high supply and weak demand, with the spot market expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation, and the futures market to remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - The glass market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with the spot market expected to continue its weak oscillation, and the futures market to be restricted by factors such as high inventory and weak demand. It is advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in an oscillation phase. The spot market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with the mainstream price of light soda ash at 1060 - 1470 yuan/ton and heavy soda ash at 1060 - 1520 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation, and the futures may remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The soda ash market was weak last week, with small price fluctuations. The supply first tightened due to enterprise maintenance and then recovered, while the demand remained weak. The market sentiment turned from wait - and - see to cautiously bearish. It was expected that the market would maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and the operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1250 - 1400. It was advisable to wait and see [11]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The supply of the soda ash market is high and the inventory is under pressure, while the demand is weak. The core contradiction is the game between high supply and weak demand. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation in the short term. The operating range of soda ash 2601 is 1300 - 1450. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly soda ash production, weekly soda ash operating rate, weekly light and heavy soda ash inventory, daily soda ash basis, and weekly ammonia - soda process production cost in North China. The multi - empty flow is - 97.4, the capital energy is 76.2, and the multi - empty divergence is 91.1, indicating a high risk of market reversal [13][16][18][22] Glass Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The glass is in an oscillation trend. The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market generally fell by 10 - 60 yuan/ton last week. The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term. The futures are also in a weakening oscillation. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [29]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market decreased last week. The demand was weak, and the supply increased after resumption. The market was in a weak oscillation. The expected operating range of glass 2509 was 950 - 1150. It was advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [32]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market fell by 10 - 60 yuan/ton last week. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term. The expected operating range of glass 2601 is 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [33]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly float glass production, weekly float glass operating rate, weekly production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, daily glass basis, and weekly float glass ending inventory. The multi - empty flow is - 98.8, the capital energy is 15.3, and the multi - empty divergence is 95.0, indicating a high risk of market reversal [35][38][40][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it suggests that investors should approach oil and chemical investments with a mindset of weakening volatility, using the 5 - day moving average as a stop - loss point [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - EIA and IEA hold an oversupply view of the future crude oil market, which has dampened market sentiment. The absolute value of oil prices has dropped to the lowest since June 5, and the monthly spread, taking Brent as an example, has fallen to the lowest since May. Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains [2]. - When raw material prices fluctuate significantly, the supply - demand relationship of chemical products becomes secondary. Most chemical products' basis has slightly increased after the sharp decline on August 14. The operating rates of polyester downstream industries and the benzene - ethylene chain have improved to some extent. Caustic soda is the strongest - performing variety on August 14 [3]. - Overall, the oil and chemical industry is expected to be in a state of weakening volatility. Each specific product has its own market characteristics and trends, and investors are advised to use a weakening volatility mindset for investment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 will influence the future sanctions on Russian oil. OPEC + production increases have led to supply pressure, and crude oil inventories face dual pressures. The short - term outlook is volatile, and the market should pay attention to the progress of US - Russia negotiations [9]. - **Logic**: OPEC + production increases have prevented seasonal declines in crude oil inventories in the past two months. Overseas gasoline inventories are high, and future crude oil inventories will face pressure from the peak - to - decline of refinery operations and accelerated OPEC + production increases. If the meeting is optimistic about ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, oil prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt futures prices are weakly volatile. The main contract closed at 3472 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in different regions vary [9]. - **Logic**: EIA has significantly lowered oil price expectations. After the meeting between Russian and US leaders, the market will refocus on negative factors. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is high, driving refinery operations to return. Demand for asphalt is still not optimistic, and its current valuation is relatively high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil is weakly volatile, with the main contract closing at 2700 yuan/ton [9]. - **Logic**: EIA has lowered oil price expectations and raised OPEC production forecasts. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. China has raised the import tariff on fuel oil, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is weak. Although the cracking spread is high, the driving factors are weakening [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow crude oil and fluctuate weakly, with the main contract closing at 3449 yuan/ton [11]. - **Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil. Although it is affected by the increase in diesel cracking spread, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [11]. 3.1.5 Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, methanol's port inventory continues to accumulate, and it fluctuates downward; urea is temporarily undisturbed and the market is weak; ethylene glycol's cost support weakens and port inventory accumulates; etc. [3] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of different varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., have different changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.52 with a change of 0.04 [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties also show different trends. For example, asphalt's basis is 168 with a change of 31, and the number of warehouse receipts is 73550 [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different products such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., have different changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 220 with a change of 110 [40].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The coke market is expected to continue its volatile and upward trend in the short term due to tight supply and strong demand [1]. - Gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but remain volatile and bearish in the medium term due to the strength of the US dollar [1]. - Iron ore prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with support from iron water demand and seasonal shipping lulls [3]. - Rebar prices may be volatile and weak in the short term due to weak demand and increased inventory [4]. - Treasury bonds are expected to have a short - term rebound but remain volatile and bearish in the medium term, with the stock - bond seesaw as the main logic [4]. - Silver is expected to have a short - term correction but remain volatile and bullish [5]. - The pig market has a short - term rebound expectation, but the supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction [5]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short term, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions [6][7]. - Methanol is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. - Soda ash is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - LLDPE is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Crude oil is expected to be volatile and weak, with market focus on the US - Russia negotiation [10]. - PTA follows the trend of crude oil, and there is pressure on the supply side [11]. - Rubber is expected to be volatile and bullish, with short - term supply support and improved demand expectations [11]. Summary by Variety Coke - On August 14, mainstream steel mills raised coke purchase prices. Coke prices have risen for six consecutive rounds. Some coking coal varieties have weakened, and coking enterprises' operating pressure has eased. Supply may tighten slightly, and demand remains strong. Coke supply is tight, and the market is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [1]. Gold - US initial jobless claims decreased, and PPI increased significantly, strengthening the US dollar and pressuring precious metals. Gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but remain volatile and bearish in the medium term [1]. Iron Ore - From August 4 - 10, global iron ore shipments decreased. Iron water production decreased slightly, but demand remained resilient, and port inventory increased. Ore prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term, and it is recommended to operate within the range of the Iron Ore 2601 contract with a support level of 750 yuan/ton [3]. Rebar - As of August 14, rebar production decreased slightly, while factory and social inventories increased, and apparent demand decreased significantly. With weak demand and increased inventory, rebar prices may be volatile and weak in the short term [4]. Treasury Bonds - The central bank has increased liquidity injection, which supports the bond market. The bond market is currently affected by liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw, with a short - term rebound and medium - term bearish trend [4]. Silver - US PPI in July increased significantly, suppressing interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index rebounded, pressuring precious metals. Silver may correct further in the short term but remains volatile and bullish [5]. Pig - On August 14, the national average pork price decreased slightly. Pig prices in different regions showed a mixed trend. There is a short - term rebound expectation, but supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction, with a support level of 13700 for the LH2511 contract [5]. Palm Oil - India's palm oil imports in July decreased. Affected by news and profit - taking of long - position funds, palm oil prices are expected to be high - level volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions [6][7]. Methanol - Methanol port inventory increased, and the capacity utilization rate rose. The downstream demand was stable. Methanol is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a pressure level of 2465 for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. Soda Ash - The price of heavy - duty soda ash was volatile and weak. Production increased, and inventory rose. The float glass industry was stable, but inventory increased. Soda ash is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a pressure level of 1425 for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. LLDPE - The price of LLDPE increased slightly, production decreased, and enterprise inventory decreased. The downstream demand was general. LLDPE is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a pressure level of 7365 for the L2601 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Crude Oil - US refined oil demand increased year - on - year. OPEC + has increased production, and the IEA has adjusted supply and demand forecasts. The US - Russia meeting has uncertainty. Crude oil is expected to be volatile and weak, with market focus on the negotiation [10]. PTA - PTA supply pressure exists, and the downstream is the traditional peak season. However, polyester profit is poor, which may affect production enthusiasm. PTA follows the trend of crude oil [11]. Rubber - The price of rubber raw materials was stable. Tire capacity utilization showed differentiation. The supply side has short - term support, and demand expectations have improved. Rubber is expected to be volatile and bullish [11].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On August 14, A-share market indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 0.46% to 3666.44, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.87% to 11451.43, and ChiNext Index falling 1.08% to 2469.66. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion for two consecutive days, reaching 2279.2 billion, up 128.3 billion from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4173.31, down 3.27 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 14, the weighted coke index closed at 1694.3, down 74.8; the weighted coking coal index closed at 1196.1 yuan, down 80.7 [2][3]. - The exchange tightened position limits on coking coal futures from August 15. The 6th round of coke price increase was implemented, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, coking coal imports were 52.8223 million tons, down 7.36% year - on - year, with June imports at 9.1084 million tons, up 23.31% month - on - month but down 15.05% year - on - year. China's coke exports from January to June were 350,600 tons, down 28% year - on - year, with June exports at 51,000 tons, down 25% month - on - month and 41% year - on - year [4]. - Currently, the valuation is moderately high. For coke, port spot prices were stable, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at 1480 yuan/ton. Steel mills' high blast furnace operation maintained coke demand, but some traders were cautious after the futures price decline. For coking coal, the price of fat coal in Linfen, Shanxi, dropped 58 yuan to 1247 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was strong, with prices rising at Ganqimaodu Port, but trading volume was average [5]. Soybean Meal - On August 14, CBOT soybeans fell from a six - week high due to concerns about export demand. US new - crop soybean net sales were 1.133 million tons as of August 7, higher than expected, while old - crop net sales were - 377,600 tons, down 181% from the previous week. The domestic M2601 contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. Low Q4 soybean purchases in China raised concerns about supply shortages, and higher import costs supported prices. However, abundant imports, high refinery operation, and high inventory limited the upward space. Future focus is on weather and imports [5][6]. Live Hogs - On August 14, the live hog futures price was weak, with the LH2511 contract closing at 13,900 yuan/ton, down 1.03%. It's the off - season for pork consumption, with weak demand and low orders from major pig enterprises. Group farms' August出栏 is expected to increase, and overall supply will be abundant in the second half of the year. The market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and future focus is on policy,出栏 rhythm, and weight changes [6]. Palm Oil - On August 14, palm oil's upward momentum weakened, with the new P2601 contract closing at 9368 yuan/ton, down 1.29%. India's 2024/25 soybean oil imports are expected to rise 60% to a record high, while palm oil imports may drop 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, the lowest since 2019/20 [7]. Shanghai Copper - US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, the highest in three years, reducing expectations of a September interest rate cut. The Shanghai copper price fell below 79,000 yuan. It may decline to 78,500 yuan. Import supplies may increase, pressuring the premium, but tight domestic supplies near delivery will support the spot price [7]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14,110 yuan/ton. On August 15, the minimum basis price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was 390 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 84 lots [8]. Iron Ore - On August 14, the iron ore 2601 contract fell 2.94% to 775 yuan. Global shipments and arrivals decreased, but iron ore demand remained strong due to high steel mill profitability. The price will likely fluctuate in the short term [8]. Asphalt - On August 14, the asphalt 2510 contract fell 0.54% to 3472 yuan. Capacity utilization increased, but shipments declined. Demand is weak but expected to recover. Low inventory supports the price, and it will likely move sideways in the short term [8]. Logs - On August 14, the 2509 log contract opened at 812.5, closed at 809.5, with an increase of 623 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Higher overseas prices drove up domestic futures. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and attention should be paid to spot prices, imports, inventory, and market sentiment [8][9]. Steel - On August 14, rb2510 closed at 3189 yuan/ton, and hc2510 at 3432 yuan/ton. After the hype of production cuts and price increases faded, coking coal futures led black futures down. High - temperature and rainy weather weakened demand, and steel prices may decline in the short term [9]. Alumina - On August 14, the ao2601 contract closed at 3240 yuan/ton. With an expected supply surplus, the market will have more available spot. Price competition between upstream and downstream will intensify, and aluminum plants will focus on inventory control [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 14, the al2509 contract closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. Expectations of Fed rate cuts pushed up the price, but low downstream demand and inventory accumulation limited the upside. After the positive sentiment fades, the price may decline. In the short term, it will likely move sideways with a downward bias [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: With both supply and demand booming in the producing areas, a low - buying strategy is recommended [2]. - Soybean oil: Bullish factors have been fully priced in, and there may be a correction at high levels [2]. - Soybean meal: US soybeans have risen and then fallen, and the Dalian soybean meal futures will adjust and fluctuate [2]. - Soybean No.1: The futures price will fluctuate [2]. - Corn: It will move in a fluctuating manner [2]. - Sugar: It will consolidate within a range [2]. - Eggs: The price will adjust in a fluctuating way [2]. - Live pigs: Second - fattening has entered the market, but the spot performance is below expectations [2]. - Peanuts: The near - term contracts are stronger than the far - term ones [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 9,294 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.38%, and the night - session closing price was 9,386 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.99%. Soybean oil's daytime closing price was 8,540 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 8,512 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.33% [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: India's palm oil imports in July were 855,695 tons, down from 955,683 tons in June. The total vegetable oil imports in July were 1,579,041 tons, up from 1,549,825 tons in June. ICE Canadian canola futures closed down 0.8%, and CBOT soybean futures fell 1.5% due to profit - taking and export concerns. CONAB and ABIOVE both raised their forecasts for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production and exports [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [9]. 2. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean No.1 2511's daytime closing price was 4,041 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.13%, and the night - session closing price was 4,049 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54%. DCE soybean meal 2601's daytime closing price was 3,157 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.38%, and the night - session closing price was 3,140 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.76% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 14, CBOT soybean futures fell from a six - week high due to profit - taking and export concerns. The US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed a significant reduction in 2024/25 US soybean net sales [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 is 0 [12]. 3. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,281 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase during the day and 2,279 yuan/ton with a 0.09% decline at night. The closing price of C2511 was 2,202 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decline during the day and 2,197 yuan/ton with a 0.23% decline at night [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port collection prices were stable, while prices in Northeast and North China were weak. Imported sorghum and barley had different price quotes for different shipment periods [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [15]. 4. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.58 cents/pound with a 0.27 - cent decline. The mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase. The futures主力 price was 5,659 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan increase [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon rainfall has weakened. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June. CAOC made production, consumption, and import forecasts for the 24/25 and 25/26 domestic sugar seasons. ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 season [16][17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [19]. 5. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,191 yuan/500 kilograms with a 3.01% decline, and the closing price of egg 2601 was 3,578 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.11% decline [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [20]. 6. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,930 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13,550 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 15,190 yuan/ton. The prices of futures contracts such as live pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 all showed year - on - year declines [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is - 1 [24]. - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increased, while散户 were forced to hold back pigs. Demand growth was limited, and market pressure was high. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and the industrial willingness to deliver is increasing. There is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure maintains an inverse spread [25]. 7. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of important spot peanuts such as Liaoning 308 common peanuts remained unchanged. The closing price of PK510 was 8,058 yuan/ton with a 1.03% decline, and the closing price of PK511 was 7,884 yuan/ton with a 1.40% decline [27]. - **Spot Market Focus**: New peanuts have been gradually coming onto the market in small quantities in some areas, with uneven quality and small supply. Most areas' prices are stable or slightly weak [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [31].

| | | | | 尿素早评20250814: 基本面仍有压力 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | 8月13日 单位 | | | 8月12日 | 变化值 (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 山东 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1747.00 1788.00 1730.00 | 1756.00 1796.00 1720.00 | -9.00 -8.00 10.00 | -0.51% -0.45% 0.58% -0.61% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1726.00 | 1727.00 | -1.00 | -0.06% | | 山西 | | | 元/吨 | 1620.00 | 1630.00 | -10.00 | | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1740.00 | 1730.00 | 10.00 | 0.58% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1750.00 ...