投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260311 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：国际油价高波延续，国内开年贸易数据亮眼 海外方面，美伊冲突升级为围绕霍尔木兹海峡与伊朗能源体系的博弈，战事烈度上升， 但美以仍试图保留谈判与控局空间。同时，美国并未实质提供护航，说明海峡通行风险和中 东供应扰动并未解除；油价暴跌更多反映对停火、护航和制裁豁免的预期交易，而非风险出 清。后续关注：一是伊朗是否真正布雷或扩大袭船；二是美以是否收缩对伊能源设施打击； 三是 IEA 与 G7 会否协调释放战略储备。目前市场定价美联储降息节点延后至 9 月，美股震 荡微跌，油价维持高波动、盘中一度下探至 81 美元，随后反弹至 87 美元附近，金银铜价格 延续修复走势，本周继续关注美伊局势演变及美国通胀数据。 国内方面，中国前两月外贸实现强劲开局，2 月以美元计价出口同比增 21.8%，进口同 比增 19.8%，远超市场预期。出口在春节错位、海外资本开支回暖及"抢出口"等因素带动 下显著走强，进口亦同步改善，反映内外需均有修复。结构上，机电产品继续支撑出口 ...

Employment Data - In February, the U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 92,000, against an expectation of 59,000 and a previous value of 126,000[4] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3% and unchanged from the previous month[4] - Cumulative non-farm employment has decreased by 19,000 since the tariff policy was implemented in April last year, with a more significant drop of 128,000 when excluding non-cyclical sectors like government and healthcare[6] Sector Analysis - Job losses in February were primarily in accommodation and food services (-35,000), healthcare (-28,000), postal services (-17,000), construction (-11,000), information services (-11,000), and federal government (-10,000)[6] - The private sector saw a net loss of 86,000 jobs when excluding government employment, and a loss of 58,000 when excluding both government and healthcare jobs[6] - The financial sector added 10,000 jobs, mainly from securities trading (8,000) and real estate-related sectors (6,000)[8] Labor Market Insights - The job vacancy rate has significantly decreased compared to pre-pandemic levels, indicating a lack of improvement in labor market fluidity[11] - The unemployment rate for high-education individuals remains at 3%, comparable to levels seen during economic downturns in 2008 and 2014[10] - Initial jobless claims have stabilized, with the four-week cumulative initial claims remaining low, suggesting that immediate recession signals in the job market are not pressing[10] Economic Implications - The current labor market conditions indicate a continued necessity for interest rate cuts, as the market may not withstand negative shocks[9] - Rising oil and electricity prices due to geopolitical tensions could delay anticipated interest rate cuts and negatively impact the upcoming midterm elections[12]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Geopolitical disturbances continue to suppress precious metal prices, with inflation expectations also contributing to this trend. Recent geopolitical events in the Middle East have led to significant oil price increases, creating uncertainty that affects precious metals [1] - Despite weak U.S. employment data and economic performance, expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve after geopolitical conflicts subside remain, while central bank gold purchases continue [1] Group 2: Copper - The unexpected weak U.S. non-farm payroll data has boosted expectations for interest rate cuts, providing support for copper prices amid liquidity tightening pressures from U.S.-Iran conflicts [2] - Supply constraints are evident as copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) continue to decline, while demand is recovering as companies resume operations post-holiday, leading to a significant increase in downstream replenishment intentions [2] Group 3: Aluminum - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has raised concerns about supply shortages, pushing LME aluminum prices to a nearly four-year high [2] - Supply disruptions are frequent, with Qatar Aluminum Industries halting production due to gas supply issues and Bahrain Aluminum facing transportation obstacles due to regional conflicts [2] Group 4: Tin - The supply-demand situation for tin is weak, with macroeconomic factors increasing price volatility. Progress in water extraction at Myanmar mines and the resumption of exports from Indonesia have led to marginally eased supply conditions [2] - Downstream enterprises are cautiously purchasing due to high inventory levels and uncertainties surrounding AI chip export regulations, which may suppress market sentiment [2] Group 5: Energy Metals - Demand for lithium remains strong, with continuous inventory reductions observed post-holiday, while production is on the rise. The expected reduction in export tax rebates for battery products may lead to front-loaded battery demand [3] - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supplies, while downstream demand is cautious. Cobalt companies are extending their reach into electric new energy sectors, enhancing competitive barriers [3] Group 6: Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to strategic premiums and supply-demand mismatches, with strong overseas demand and smooth cost transmission contributing to this trend [4] - The price of uranium has increased to $90 per pound in February, driven by rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development, indicating a persistent supply-demand gap [4] - Tantalum prices have surged due to supply shortages from mining accidents in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with emerging industries like AI servers and semiconductors driving terminal demand [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of non - ferrous metals is affected by geopolitical factors and the change of risk sentiment, generally maintaining a volatile pattern [13][14]. - The future price of copper is expected to break upward with the recovery of the gold and silver market and the arrival of the consumption peak season [15][17]. - The zinc market is affected by geopolitical disturbances, and the price fluctuates under pressure, continuing the volatile trend [15][17]. - The aluminum industry chain shows a relatively strong and volatile trend, and it is recommended to adopt a cautious and bullish approach [17]. - The tin market is in a state of volatile consolidation, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. - The lead market fluctuates in a range, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy can be adopted [18]. - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are in a stage of adjustment, and it is advisable to go long on dips [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The situation in Iran dominates the sentiment of the capital market. The rise in oil prices and trade blockades increase inflation expectations, weaken the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and put pressure on non - ferrous metals. The impact depends on the duration of the situation. The performance of aluminum in the non - ferrous sector is relatively prominent, but it is also suppressed this week [13]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Variety** - **Copper**: The current fundamentals are weak in the short term. The price is mainly driven by macro logic and valuation restoration. It is recommended to go long on dips. The support range is 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton [15][17]. - **Zinc**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price fluctuates under pressure. It is recommended to use a strategy of alternating bull and bear spreads. The support range is 23,800 - 24,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 24,800 - 25,000 yuan/ton [15][17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: It shows a relatively strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or take a bullish approach. Different products in the industry chain have different support and pressure ranges [17]. - **Tin**: In a state of volatile consolidation, it is recommended to wait and see. The support range is 330,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 460,000 - 480,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Lead**: Fluctuates in a range, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy can be adopted. The support range is 16,400 - 16,600 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 17,000 - 17,200 yuan/ton [18]. - **Nickel and Stainless - steel**: In a stage of adjustment, it is advisable to go long on dips. The support and pressure ranges for nickel and stainless - steel are provided respectively [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are presented. For example, the closing price of copper is 100,190 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.85%; the closing price of zinc is 24,420 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.66% [20]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector is provided, including information on the strength of net long and short positions, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors for each variety [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 100,490 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.80%; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 24,340 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.83% [24]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [26][30][33]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage Graphs related to arbitrage opportunities for each non - ferrous metal are provided, such as the change in the Shanghai - London ratio and the basis spread [63][65][66]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options Graphs related to options for each non - ferrous metal are provided, including historical volatility, implied volatility, and changes in trading volume and open interest [80][82][86].

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: March 10, 2026 - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long - term, the unprecedented changes in a century and Sino - US competition will continue to drive the gold price up. In the short - term, the Iran war boosts safe - haven demand but also weakens the Fed's rate - cut expectations and pushes up the US dollar exchange rate. The precious metals sector has high volatility, and the gold price is expected to show a wide - range shock pattern. Investors are advised to take a bullish position while strictly controlling positions. This week, attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation, Sino - US price data, and China's trade data [4] - After the sharp decline at the end of January due to the Fed's suspension of the rate - cut process and Trump's nomination of a hawkish Fed chairman candidate, the precious metals sector showed a strong sign of stabilizing and rebounding in February. Affected by factors such as the chaotic international trade situation, the gloomy global economic growth outlook, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and rising geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector is expected to continue to rise strongly along the upward trend line since September 2025. However, historical experience shows that the precious metals rally driven by geopolitical conflicts is often short - lived, and investors are advised to control positions, maintain a bullish view, long - hedgers can seize the opportunity to establish hedging positions, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce hedging positions [6] Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The weak US job market boosts the Fed's rate - cut expectations. However, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz hinders international crude oil trade, and Iran's selection of a hard - line successor as the supreme leader raises concerns about the long - termization of the Iran war. Rising oil prices and inflation may hinder the Fed from cutting rates. On Monday's Asian session, the London gold price once fell to $5014 per ounce [4] Medium - term Market - After the sharp decline in late January, the precious metals sector rebounded in February. On February 20, the US Federal Supreme Court's ruling that the Trump administration had no right to levy tariffs under the IEEPA re - destabilized international trade, pushing the international gold price up to around $5200 per ounce, and Middle - East geopolitical risks increased the safe - haven demand for precious metals [6] Domestic Precious Metals Market Conditions | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Index | 1,143.78 | 1,155.57 | 1,123.86 | 1,143.19 | - 0.05% | 289,469 | 4731 | | SHFE Silver Index | 21,571 | 21,857 | 20,433 | 21,576 | 0.03% | 492,049 | - 5469 | | GZFE Platinum Index | 559.04 | 558.89 | 521.83 | 548.31 | - 1.92% | 26,741 | - 639 | | GZFE Palladium Index | 420.61 | 416.08 | 399.48 | 412.47 | - 1.94% | 9,253 | 26 | [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report includes charts such as Shanghai gold and silver futures indexes, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indexes against Shanghai Gold Exchange T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Iran announced that Mojtaba Khamenei would succeed his father Ali Khamenei as the supreme leader, indicating that the hard - line faction still firmly controls the Tehran regime. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said the government would continue military operations [17] - US employment decreased by 92,000 in February unexpectedly, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, which may indicate a deterioration in the labor market. The decline in employment was partially due to strikes in the healthcare industry and winter storms affecting the construction and leisure and hospitality industries [17] - Due to the Iran war, Iraq's oil production in southern major oil fields has dropped by 70%. Qatar's energy minister said that if the Iran conflict continues and pushes the oil price to $150 per barrel, all Gulf energy - producing countries are expected to stop exports within weeks. Kuwait National Petroleum Company also started to cut crude oil production and declared force majeure [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in global markets, particularly focusing on the impact of rising oil prices due to regional conflicts, which may lead to inflation concerns and affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Market Performance - The market opened with significant declines but rebounded in the afternoon, with a decrease of 3.9 stars [1] - All market caps (large, mid, and small) experienced declines [2] - Value style stocks remained relatively strong [3] - Dividend and cash flow stocks saw slight increases [4] - Growth style stocks faced more significant declines [5] - Hong Kong stocks also experienced a downturn, although tech stocks in Hong Kong declined less [6][7] Global Market Trends - Global markets experienced considerable volatility, with Japanese and Korean stocks dropping over 6% at one point, closing down more than 5% [8] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as RMB assets, remained relatively resilient [9] - The volatility in the market is attributed to regional conflicts leading to a sharp rise in oil prices [10] Oil Price Impact - Last week, oil prices saw the largest weekly increase in history [11] - Oil prices continued to rise significantly today [12] - Concerns about rising oil prices potentially leading to increased inflation are prevalent [13] - Higher inflation could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates, negatively impacting global asset valuations [13] Historical Context - From 2021 to 2022, the U.S. experienced high inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates significantly [14][15] - The increase in dollar interest rates led to declines in global stocks, bonds, and commodity prices [16] - From 2023 to 2024, inflation rates are gradually decreasing, with the Federal Reserve expected to initiate rate cuts in September 2024 [18][19] - A decrease in dollar interest rates is favorable for global stock, bond, and commodity valuations, leading to a bull market [20][21] Small Asset Performance - The declining interest rate cycle benefits "small assets," with many small countries' stock markets experiencing more significant gains [22][23] - For instance, A-shares' mid-cap indices (CSI 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500) have outperformed large-cap indices like CSI 300 [25] Current Concerns - Recent regional conflicts have raised fears of short-term oil supply shortages, causing significant oil price increases [26] - Rising oil prices could lead to short-term inflation increases, which would be detrimental to the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting plans [28] - If dollar interest rates do not continue to decline, it could pressure the small countries and small-cap stocks that have seen gains since 2024 [29][30] Value Style Resilience - Rising oil prices are beneficial for certain value styles, particularly those with high energy sector exposure, such as dividend, low volatility, and cash flow indices [31][32] - Recent weeks have seen strength in dividend indices, which are heavily weighted in energy and utility sectors [35] - Year-to-date, dividend indices in A-shares and Hong Kong have become some of the highest-performing assets globally [37]

冠通期货研究报告 --沪铜周报 研究咨询部王静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2026年3月9日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 行情分析 2 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 ➢ 宏观方面：2月28日起，美国以色列军事行动开始，伊朗最高领袖身亡后伊朗以色列军事矛盾加深，地缘冲突不断升温，霍尔木兹海峡被伊朗控 制，战争导致能化板块大幅上涨，本周末新任最高领袖上任后，冲突继续升级。美国劳工部数据显示，截至2月28日当周初请失业金人数为21.3 万人，符合预期；ADP报告显示2月私营部门就业增加6.3万人。 ➢ 供给方面：预计3月产量环比增长5.28万吨，同比上升6.51%，由于1月份检修企业多在3月复产，且新投产冶炼厂有增产，预计3月份产量可能创 历史新高。受政策问题的影响，再生铜市场骗局较为紧张，市场交易受限制，流通的货源略微偏紧，而铜冶炼厂受到阳极铜缺少的影响，再生铜 冶炼困难。目前国内下游对于含税再生铜原料需求旺盛，进口需求量高，预计后续进口废铜有增量。 ➢ 需求方面：假期节后下游逐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The February non-farm employment data significantly underperformed market expectations, with a decrease of 92,000 jobs compared to an expected increase of 55,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, above the expected 4.3%, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.0%, below the expected 62.5%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year, indicating some resilience in wage growth despite the overall employment decline [1]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with the number of unemployed rising by 203,000 to 7.571 million, ending a two-month decline. The employment count from household surveys decreased by 185,000, with part-time employment due to economic reasons dropping by 477,000, while full-time employment rose by 292,000 [2]. - The employment market's liquidity is deteriorating, with voluntary resignations decreasing by 171,000 to 867,000, and re-entrants to the job market increasing by 152,000 to 2.32 million. Permanent unemployment rose by 29,000 to 203,700, indicating a weakening "low-volatility equilibrium" in the job market [6]. - The labor force participation rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 62.0%, with the participation rate for the prime working age group (25-54 years) also declining by 0.1 percentage points to 83.9% [9]. Group 2: Non-Farm Employment Changes - February's non-farm employment data showed a significant negative shift, with a loss of 92,000 jobs, which was much lower than expected. The previous month's data was also revised downwards, with December's figures adjusted down by 65,000 to -17,000 and January's by 4,000 to 126,000 [12]. - Weather-related factors contributed to the employment decline, with an estimated 228,000 workers unable to work due to weather conditions, which was 61,000 more than in February 2025. Additionally, a strike at Kaiser Permanente reduced healthcare employment by 31,000 [15]. - Average weekly hours remained high at 34.3 hours, suggesting that the employment reduction reflects temporary disruptions rather than a fundamental weakening of the job market [16]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Outlook - The employment weakness is primarily attributed to temporary factors like weather, with the underlying trend remaining robust. In light of rising oil prices, the Federal Reserve is likely to focus more on inflation risks, delaying the next interest rate cut to September [18]. - Following the release of the weak non-farm report, the U.S. Treasury yield curve initially steepened but quickly reversed, with yields flattening. The 2-year yield fell by 1.6 basis points to 3.56%, while the 10-year and 30-year yields remained stable at 4.14% and 4.76%, respectively [18]. - Concerns about inflation may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates longer than previously expected, which could continue to flatten the yield curve. The current market dynamics are still heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US February non - farm payroll data showed a decrease of 92,000 people, far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, indicating signs of an economic slowdown. The ongoing Middle - East conflict led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, increasing market inflation expectations in the US, and the Fed's interest rate cut faced challenges. The precious metals were under pressure and declined. The medium - term bullish logic remains unchanged, but it is in a short - term oscillation, and attention should be paid to the return of the gold - silver ratio [4]. - In the short term, there is limited fundamental data. In the medium term, platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, while palladium is in a relatively surplus pattern. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the guidance of gold prices. Platinum and palladium should be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - **Gold**: London gold decreased from $5,222.3/oz to $5,127.55/oz; COMEX gold decreased from $5,296.4/oz to $5,181.3/oz; the difference between London gold and COMEX gold increased by $20.35/oz. The prices of Shanghai Gold Exchange Au(T + D) and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold also decreased. COMEX inventory decreased by 239,257 ounces, and COMEX warehouse receipts decreased by 201,242 ounces. The COMEX gold - silver ratio and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold - silver ratio increased [8]. - **Silver**: London silver decreased from $89.975/oz to $82.34/oz; COMEX silver decreased from $94.425/oz to $84.75/oz; the difference between London silver and COMEX silver increased by $2.04/oz. The prices of Shanghai Gold Exchange Ag(T + D) and Shanghai Futures Exchange silver decreased. COMEX inventory decreased by 11,186,608 ounces, and COMEX warehouse receipts decreased by 6,689,997 ounces. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 50,644 kilograms [8]. - **Platinum**: London platinum decreased from $2,366/oz to $2,109/oz; NYMEX platinum decreased from $2,376.2/oz to $2,151.8/oz; the difference between London platinum and NYMEX platinum increased by $32.6/oz. The prices of Shanghai Gold Exchange Pt9995 and Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum decreased. NYMEX inventory decreased by 2,622 ounces, and NYMEX warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. - **Palladium**: London palladium decreased from $1,793/oz to $1,626/oz; NYMEX palladium decreased from $1,828/oz to $1,657/oz; the difference between London palladium and NYMEX palladium increased by $4/oz. The prices of Shanghai Gold Exchange Pt9995 and Guangzhou Futures Exchange palladium decreased. NYMEX inventory increased by 2,917 ounces, and NYMEX warehouse receipts decreased by 1,951 ounces [8]. 02. Market Analysis - **Market News** - On March 7, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control conditionally relaxed sanctions on Venezuela's gold - related transactions [10]. - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 16th consecutive month, with 74.22 million ounces (about 2,308.5 tons) at the end of February, an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) from January [10]. - Due to the Middle - East conflict, Dubai gold was sold at a large discount, and many buyers stopped placing new orders [10]. - In February, global gold ETFs had a net inflow of $5.3 billion, with the total asset management scale reaching a record high of $701 billion, and the global holding volume reaching 4,171 tons [10]. - In 2025, platinum industrial demand decreased by 21% to 60 tons, but is expected to rebound by 11% to 66 tons in 2026. Total investment demand in 2025 increased by 65% to 36 tons but is expected to decrease by 46% to 19 tons in 2026. The physical investment demand for platinum bars and coins is expected to increase by 35% to 23 tons in 2026 [11]. - In 2025, platinum demand in the automotive catalyst field decreased by 2 tons to 94 tons, and is expected to further decrease by 3% to 92 tons in 2026 [11]. - The global platinum market will have a supply shortage of 240,000 troy ounces in 2026, narrowing from 1.1 million ounces in 2025. Total demand is expected to decrease by 8% to 7.6 million ounces, and total supply is expected to increase by 2% to 7.4 million ounces [11]. - The US February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 92,000 people, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates at least once in 2026, possibly in June [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term logic of precious metals remains unchanged, with long - term bullish expectations in the macro aspect and strong supply - demand fundamentals [54]. - It is not recommended to chase the upward trend. Instead, focus on buying on dips. For options, consider the bull spread strategy. The lower support range for the platinum main contract is 600 - 620, and the upper pressure range is 780 - 800 [54]. - The supply - demand structure of platinum is still tight. Platinum has both financial and industrial attributes, with strong investment enthusiasm and a weak supply situation. The subsequent platinum price is expected to remain strong [55]. - The supply - demand contradiction of palladium is weaker than that of platinum, and its financial attribute is far inferior to platinum. It is recommended to wait and see. The lower support range for the palladium main contract is 450 - 460, and the upper pressure range is 550 - 570. If the price difference between platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange narrows to around 50, consider going long on the platinum - palladium price difference [57]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Core Viewpoints Overview - **Platinum**: The core factors driving the rise in gold prices include the start of the US interest - rate cut cycle, economic downturn, continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world, rising ETF holdings, investors' lack of confidence in the US and turning to gold, and frequent geopolitical events. The current market core contradiction lies in the duration and outcome of the war and the impact on oil prices. After the precious metals fall from high levels, the strategy is to buy on dips. The lower support range for the platinum main contract is 500 - 520, and the upper pressure range is 780 - 800. Options can consider the bull spread strategy [5]. - **Palladium**: The supply - demand contradiction of palladium is weaker than that of platinum, and its financial attribute is far inferior to platinum. It is difficult for palladium to rise and the回调 amplitude is larger. It is recommended to wait and see. The lower support range for the palladium main contract is 400 - 420, and the upper pressure range is 550 - 570. If the price difference between platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange narrows to around 50, consider going long on the platinum - palladium price difference [5]. 2. Overview of the Platinum and Palladium Industry Chain - **Platinum**: Platinum is widely used, mainly in automobile catalysts, a wide range of industrial fields, jewelry, and investment needs. The proportions of the four core demand areas - industry, automobile, jewelry, and investment - are 24%, 37%, 30%, and 9% respectively [12]. - **Palladium**: Palladium is similar in nature to platinum, and its downstream consumption areas overlap with those of platinum, often serving as substitutes for each other. In palladium consumption, the proportions of automobile catalysts, chemical electronics, and jewelry investment are 83%, 11%, and 2.2% respectively, with the main use in the automobile field, followed by industrial applications, and relatively small jewelry and investment needs [17]. 3. Fundamental Situation of Platinum and Palladium - **Macroeconomic Factors** - The US attack on Iran has led to a significant decline in risk assets, a strong risk - aversion sentiment, and a rebound in the US dollar index, which suppresses prices. However, the long - term expectation of a weak US dollar still exists, which boosts the price of precious metals. The core contradiction of the US dollar lies in the conflict situation, its resolution, and whether the short - term oil price increase will continue into the medium - term, dragging the macro - environment into stagflation [24][29]. - The US long - term bond yield has declined, and the market's confidence in the US has recovered to some extent, causing the gold price to fall from high levels [32]. - Central banks in China and other major countries around the world continue to buy gold, which promotes the continuous rise of the gold price [34]. - The ETF holdings of gold remain at a high level, driving the physical demand for gold. Although the gold price has fallen, the ETF holdings have remained stable [37]. - **Historical Price Relationship** - The price decline of platinum and palladium is due to the weakening of the precious - metal attribute and the influence of the industrial - product attribute. The ratio of platinum to palladium has rebounded from a low level. From a precious - metal perspective, the reasonable range of the gold - platinum ratio is between 1.8 and 2.5 [41]. - **Supply - Demand Balance** - **Platinum**: From 2027 to 2030, the average annual market shortage is expected to be 10.8 tons (previously predicted to be 17.1 tons). The total supply has been increased by an average of 1.3% due to the upward adjustment of both mineral and recycling supply forecasts. The total demand forecast has been decreased by an average of 1.9% compared with the previous estimate, mainly due to the decrease in jewelry demand [43]. - **Palladium**: The market is predicted to enter a surplus state from 2026. The total supply has been increased by an average of 2.0%, mainly reflected in the upward adjustment of recycling supply. The total demand has been decreased by an average of 0.2%, with a relatively small adjustment amplitude due to its low correlation with the jewelry market and weak demand elasticity in the automobile and industrial fields [45]. 4. Summary - The long - term bullish logic of precious metals remains unchanged. It is recommended to buy on dips for platinum and wait and see for palladium. Pay attention to the price difference between platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange for potential trading opportunities [54][57].