周一（8月4日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报98.75，涨幅0.07%，开盘价为98.65。美国7月非农就业报 告显示新增就业仅7.3万人，显著低于预期的10万人，且前两月数据合计下修25.8万人，强化了市场对美 联储9月启动降息的预期。 受此影响，美元指数延续跌势，自近期高点100.257持续回落。报告数据验证了美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼 此前的预警——就业市场增长可能被高估。这一疲软表现令市场预计美联储将加快货币宽松步伐，9月 降息概率大幅攀升。随着就业市场降温迹象显现，美联储政策转向的预期正持续升温，投资者密切关注 后续经济数据以确认这一趋势。 上周五，美元指数上涨在100.25之下遇阻，下跌在98.60之上受到支持，意味着美元短线上涨后有可能保 持下跌的走势。如果美指今天上涨在99.15之下遇阻，后市下跌的目标将会指向98.40--97.70之间。 ...

| 98.8489 前收 100.0654 开盘 100.0560 -1.2165 - -1.22% - 卖出 - 98.8489 - 买入 - 98.8489 | | --- | | 最高 100.2588 今年来 -8.88% 20 日 1.78% | | 最低 98.6656 10 日 0.21% 60 日 -1.77% | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 ◎ | 8月首个交易日，美国股市承压下行，投资者在消化疲软的经济数据与特朗普总统更新关税政策的双重打击下纷纷减仓。 截至发稿，道琼斯工业平均指数大跌520多点，跌幅达1.2%；标普500指数亦大跌1.3%；科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数跌超1.6%。 此外，美元指数大跌1.2%至98.84，美债10年收益率下滑13bp。 与此同时，特朗普总统继续向美联储主席鲍威尔发难。他在一则言辞激烈的帖子中敦促美联储立刻降息。"太迟太少。杰罗姆'太迟'鲍威尔简直是个灾 难，快把利率降下来！" 市场的主要压力来自最新公布的7月就业报告。数据显示，非农就业岗位仅新增7.3万个，远低于经济学家此前预期的10万个。更令人担忧的是，前两个月 的就业数据被大幅下修：6月 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. labor data supports calls for monetary easing, indicating signs of weakness in the labor market [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.295%, while the 2-year yield is at 3.801% [1] - July saw only 73,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate slightly rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [1] - Previous employment data has been significantly revised downwards, with May's job additions revised from 144,000 to 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [1] - Federal Reserve officials Waller and Bowman expressed concerns about the labor market's weakness prior to the employment report [1]

全球经济的同步叙事已然落幕。随着各国从疫情后的通胀冲击中走出，世界主要中央银行正 踏上截然不同的政策路径，昔日一致对外的紧缩阵线已不复存在。这种由各国国内经济状况 主导的"大分化"，正深刻重塑全球资本流动、汇率及资产配置的未来图景。 高位观望的"暂停者"：美欧央行的如履薄冰 在当前全球货币政策的棋局中，美联储（Fed）和欧洲中央银行（ECB）占据了相似的战略位置：它们 都已将利率提升至被认为是"限制性"的水平，并暂时按下了"暂停"键。 它们的目标一致：在不引发严重经济衰退的前提下，确保通胀被彻底驯服。然而，相似的立场之下，两 者面临的挑战和内部的博弈却各有侧重，使得它们的"暂停"显得如履薄冰。 美联储：鹰派立场下的内部分歧 美联储在7月的会议上将联邦基金利率维持在了 4.25%至4.50% 的区间，这标志着其紧缩周期的平台 期。主席鲍威尔的公开表态延续了"更高更久"（Higher for Longer）的鹰派基调，强调抗击通胀的斗争 尚未结束。 他指出，尽管整体通胀已从峰值回落，但服务业通胀（特别是剔除住房的核心服务通胀）依然顽固，劳 动力市场的紧张状况也未完全缓解。这构成了美联储维持高利率的核心理由。 然而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic work conference has provided direction for the economy in the second half of the year, emphasizing continued monetary easing and fiscal support, with a focus on increasing liquidity and reducing financing costs. A significant change is the clear intention to "counter involution" [1] Group 1 - The economic strategy remains focused on monetary easing and fiscal support [1] - There is an emphasis on maintaining ample liquidity in the market [1] - Financing costs are expected to continue decreasing [1] Group 2 - The conference marks the first time a clear stance has been taken to address the issue of "involution" [1]

10:00 中国贸促会召开7月例行新闻发布会 15:00 商务部召开7月第4次例行新闻发布会 【财经日历】 09:30 中国7月官方制造业PMI 20:30 美国截至7月26日当周初请失业金人数 | | 盘前必读 | 外盘怎么样 // | | --- | --- | --- | | 3 | | | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44461.28 | -171.71 | -0.38% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 21129.67 c | 31.38 | 0.15% | | 标普500 | 6362.90 | -7.96 | -0.12% | 机构认为，央行超预期货币宽松，公开市场持续投放流动性，或带动A股中期走强。 美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.38%，纳指涨0.15%，标普500指数跌0.12%。 热门科技股涨跌不一，英伟达涨超2%，博通涨超1%，苹果跌超1%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.82%，热门中概股多数下跌，蔚来、新东方跌超4%，理想汽车跌超3%，拼多多、小鹏汽车跌超2%，阿里巴巴、京东跌超1%。 美国第 ...

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is negotiating with the Trump administration to resolve tariff conflicts, with a deadline set for August 1 [1] - Major Canadian exports such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles face high tariff threats, but approximately 80% of exports to the U.S. meet the USMCA's duty-free standards [1] - Economists predict that even if a new agreement is reached, it may not completely eliminate Canada's tariff burdens [1] Group 2 - National Bank Financial's economist Ethan Currie suggests that the new agreement is unlikely to fully relieve Canada's tariff pressures, predicting that the Bank of Canada may cut interest rates up to two more times due to ongoing trade uncertainties [1] - Conversely, Royal Bank of Canada's economist Claire Fan believes that the Bank of Canada will not further lower interest rates, arguing that the effects of previous rate cuts have not fully transmitted to the economy [1] - Fan also indicates that the upcoming fall budget from the Liberal government may allocate hundreds of billions of Canadian dollars in new spending to mitigate the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing-driven economy [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of being oscillating and bearish, with attention on the stock-bond seesaw [5] Core Viewpoints - The stock-bond seesaw remains the main logic, with government bonds oscillating at a high level. The A-share market has risen strongly, putting continuous pressure on the bond market. The long-term bonds are under more pressure, while the short-term bonds are relatively stronger. The economic improvement trend is obvious, which is medium- to long-term negative for long-term bonds [2][3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock-bond seesaw logic has led to the long-term bond market effectively breaking below the 60-day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market. Infrastructure investment may release signals of incremental policies before the Politburo meeting, which is negative for the bond market. The policy orientation of subsequent major infrastructure projects and the Politburo meeting in July are the keys to whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state-owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset-liability management. In June, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased year-on-year, but the decline narrowed. The LPR quote remained stable in July. China's Q2 GDP exceeded expectations. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved in June. Bank deposit rates continued to decline [12][14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors - **Economic Fundamentals**: China's Q2 GDP and June industrial added value exceeded expectations. The M2-M1 gap narrowed. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved. Although the economic data shows resilience, the downward pressure is still large, and counter-cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened [15] - **Policy Aspect**: In June 2025, the stock of social financing scale increased year-on-year. The M2-M1 gap narrowed [17] - **Funding Aspect**: Although the 7-day reverse repurchase rate has not changed much, the bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly. The funding is currently tight, which is negative for the bond market. With the weakening of exchange rate pressure, the expectation of further monetary easing may increase [19] - **Supply and Demand Aspect**: Last week, 16 provinces and cities issued a large number of local bonds, and the issuance of new special bonds accelerated. The funds for consumer goods replacement and special national bonds have been basically allocated, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [23] - **Sentiment Aspect**: The stock-bond ratio has broken through the short-term oscillation range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market. If this ratio continues to decline, the bond market may break below the oscillation range and enter a downward trend [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the release of Q2 economic data, the market risk appetite has continued to recover, the stock market is strong, and the bond market is under pressure. Whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range needs further observation. It is necessary to continuously track economic data and whether there are policies exceeding expectations [29]

一、央行突击降准的牛市！央行开展1.4万亿元买断式逆回购操作，其中，3个月（91天）期操作量8000亿元，6个月（182天）期操作量6000亿元。只不过更 多的后续刺激，可能要在美联储三四季度正式开始降息，我们这边的进一步宽松刺激才会落地。 在目前低利率的宏观环境下，如果财政和货币刺激先后落地，我们后续很可能会迎来924的2.0版本。因为从结构性分化到盈利效应带动增量资金进入，其实 也就差了中间财政刺激和货币宽松这把火。 当然了，这里还是那句话，不管是回顾历史还是对比现在，里面很多都是个人的主观看法和记录。这些看法和记录本身并不一定对，未来也会随着实际情况 的变化，不断的进行修正。 二、A股市场整体行情还是比较乐观的，到目前为止都没有一根大阴线，如果有是不错的上车机会。 关于后市，A股周线已经五连阳，下周收月线，月线也是阳线，月线三连阳，这都是后市长期多头的形态。 质疑牛市的声音不多了，但涨的并不快，3674高点可能8月份就过去了。7月底还有重要的消息面，下周四之前应该会出公告，也是个潜在利好催化。 但是，跌到最近的关键点位后，依旧有望在增量资金入场和板块轮动时期继续拉升。加上，大盘的2024年至今的高点虽在 ...

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