Market Overview - The A-share market showed resilience despite a divergence between growth and value styles, with the ChiNext index falling by 3.86% and the CSI 300 index rising by 0.37% [2] - The value style, represented by the CSI Dividend Index, performed well, increasing by 1.79%, indicating a preference for high dividend and low valuation stocks amid rising overseas uncertainties [2] - The average weekly increase for Wind's first-level industry was 0.15%, with 55% of sectors yielding positive returns, particularly in non-ferrous metals, coal, and steel, which rose by 4.44%, 4.41%, and 4.18% respectively [2] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 4 funds were issued last week, including 2 equity funds, 1 bond fund, and 1 FOF fund, with total issuance of 1.13 billion units [3][4] - The Wind All Fund Index decreased by 0.62%, with the ordinary equity fund index down by 1.58% and the mixed equity fund index down by 1.52% [3][7] Global Asset Review - Global equity markets experienced significant divergence, with major U.S. indices declining due to supply chain issues and government shutdowns, while Asian markets showed mixed results [4] - Gold prices reached a historical high, surpassing $4000 per ounce, while energy commodities showed weaker performance [4][5] Domestic Fund Market Review - The average weekly increase for Wind's first-level industry was 0.15%, with the public utility sector leading with a 3.69% increase, reflecting demand for stable cash flow and low valuation amid uncertainty [13] - The healthcare sector saw a decline of 1.21% for the week and 3.22% over the past month, attributed to internal sector differentiation and short-term sentiment [13] Bond Market Review - The bond market showed mixed performance, with long-term government bonds underperforming while mid-term bonds remained stable [15] - The 10-year government bond yield was recorded at 1.846%, reflecting a slight decrease of 1 basis point from the previous week [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The panic in the bond market in September has been largely released, and the official version of the redemption fee new rule is unlikely to be implemented in the short - term. The current fundamental environment remains weak, and the certainty of loose liquidity is relatively high. Without special unexpected events, the market's room for further adjustment is limited. However, for interest rates to break through the current trading range, the market needs to reach a new consensus on the weakening fundamentals forcing monetary easing. Given the possible further slowdown of economic data in Q4 and the potential restart of central bank bond purchases in October, this consensus may form in October [2][6]. - Since 2022, due to insufficient endogenous power, the economy has shown a pattern of short - term improvement after the implementation of stimulus policies and weakening again during the observation period. This pattern may continue until the real estate market clears. Future fiscal and monetary policies may need to work together to stabilize demand, and the low - interest - rate environment may persist for a long time [2][37]. - The central bank maintained a relatively loose attitude in September. In October, the exogenous disturbances to the capital market mainly come from the tax period and the large - scale maturity of policy tools. As long as the central bank's attitude remains unchanged, the impact of tool maturity is limited. There is still a possibility of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in Q4, and liquidity loosening may be the greatest certainty for the current bond market [2][3][49]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Domestic Holiday Travel Rebounds but Has Limited Impact on Consumption; Overseas Market Sees Coexistence of Risk - Aversion Sentiment and Soft - Landing Expectations - In September, economic data continued to decline. The manufacturing PMI in September rebounded slightly but remained below the boom - bust line, with demand recovery still weak [7]. - During the holiday, domestic travel numbers increased, but the growth rate of travel spending was relatively slow, and the overall impact on consumption was uncertain. New home sales during the National Day holiday were weak, while second - hand home sales improved slightly compared to previous years. Port freight and container freight volume growth rates were generally stable [12]. - Overseas, the U.S. government shutdown during the National Day holiday increased risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a rise in gold prices. However, the U.S. stock market was not significantly affected, and the U.S. bond yields declined slightly. The co - rise of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and commodities in the U.S. market reflects the combination of short - term risk - aversion sentiment and medium - term economic soft - landing expectations. The future direction of asset prices depends on the Fed's balance between the economy and inflation, which is difficult to determine in the short term [25][27]. 3.2 The Pattern of Fundamental Weakening During the Policy Observation Period May Persist; Future Fiscal and Monetary Policies Need to Collaborate to Stabilize Demand - Since 2022, the economic cycle pattern has changed. Although real estate sales have declined significantly, the debt accumulated by residents, developers, and urban investment platforms during the real estate up - cycle still exists. If housing prices do not turn upward, the adjustment of the asset - liability structure of relevant entities may still put pressure on short - term demand [28]. - From 2024Q4 to 2025Q1, the economy expanded due to fiscal policy and large - scale credit expansion. However, since Q2, economic momentum has gradually declined, and the anti - involution policy has also brought new pressure. To break this pattern before the real estate market clears, continuous fiscal stimulus to boost consumption may be required [34]. - Although policies have increasingly emphasized consumption, the current measures are relatively limited compared to previous large - scale investments. With the marginal weakening of the "trade - in" policy, consumption may face greater downward pressure in Q4. Future policies may maintain a "support without over - stimulation" tone, and the pattern of short - term improvement after policy implementation and subsequent weakening may continue [37]. 3.3 Liquidity Loosening May Be the Greatest Certainty for the Bond Market - In September, investors were more sensitive to the capital market and the central bank's operations. Although the central bank did not continuously increase net investment when capital prices rose, the average values of DR001 and DR007 in September were still slightly lower than 1.4% and 1.5%, indicating that the central bank maintained a relatively loose attitude, which may be related to exogenous disturbances and tool - positioning adjustments [38]. - This year, the central bank's policy tool investment has been at a historically high level, mainly to offset exogenous factors such as government deposits, central bank bond maturity, and resident cash withdrawals. Since Q3, the central bank has shifted to using longer - term tools, and may have relaxed control over short - term capital market fluctuations [40][41]. - In October, the exogenous disturbances to the capital market mainly come from the tax period and the large - scale maturity of policy tools. However, the reduction in government bond supply in October may ease the tax - period disturbances. There is still a possibility of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in Q4, and the central bank may need to observe the situation. The central values of DR001 and DR007 in October are expected to be slightly lower than 1.4% and 1.5%, with a higher downward risk [49]. 3.4 The Bond Market in October: Be Prepared - The adjustment of the bond market in September was mainly due to the panic of trading desks caused by concerns about institutional liabilities. The spreads of policy - financial bonds, credit bonds, and perpetual bonds widened significantly. However, the adjustment was not due to liquidity pressure but rather the panic of trading desks. The scale of institutions such as wealth management remained stable [51]. - During the selling process of trading desks, the net buying of allocation - oriented institutions such as insurance companies, large banks, and wealth management companies increased, stabilizing interest rates. The weak sentiment of non - bank institutions and the decline in their leverage willingness have released potential risks to some extent [54]. - Since a large amount of trading capital has a cost around 1.75% - 1.8%, the market may experience fluctuations during the recovery process. For interest rates to break through the current trading range, a new consensus on the weakening fundamentals forcing monetary easing is needed. It is recommended to maintain a certain level of leverage in October, use 2 - 3 - year medium - and high - grade credit bonds as the core portfolio, retain some 10 - year treasury bond positions, and increase positions after clear signals. Short - term trading can also target the recovery of over - adjusted perpetual bonds, while the operation of ultra - long - term bonds needs to observe the trend of the equity market [57].

与法国总理辞职等内政混乱明显的欧洲的欧元（下跌1.6%）和8日央行启动大幅降息导致抛售增加的新 西兰元 (下跌1.5%) 相比，日元跌幅度更大。 瑞士金融巨头瑞银（UBS）认为"本周日元将是2024年9月以来最弱的一周"，同时指出："也 不能否认投机性日元多头头寸的进一步平仓导致暂时超跌至155日元的方向"。 高市在日本时间9日晚间的日本民营电视台的节目中表示："无意诱发日元过度贬值"。她还提 及日本政府和日本银行（央行）为早日摆脱通货紧缩、于2013年签署的共同声明，称："并 不认为有必要立即修改"。 尽管高市出现了调整自身货币宽松色彩的言论，但市场参与者也出现了试探日元汇率底部的 动向。外汇交易中介公司Forex.com的高级技术策略师Michael Boutros于9日就当前的日元 汇率强调称："这是减少日元部分持仓的好机会"。 "本周日元将是2024年9月以来最弱的一周"，瑞银这样指出。在10月9日的约外汇市场，日 元汇率在1美元兑153日元区间震荡。从7种主要货币对美元的贬值幅度来看，日元的贬值幅 度明显较大。高市9日晚间表示："无意诱发日元过度贬值"…… 在10月9日的美国纽约外汇市场，日元汇率在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share core indices experienced a pullback after a significant surge, with the non-ferrous metals sector seeing a decline of over 3% in early trading, despite continued strong capital inflow into the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector's leading ETF (159876) saw its decline narrow to 1.2% after an initial drop [1] - On October 9, the non-ferrous metals leading ETF (159876) attracted 117 million yuan in a single day, raising its total fund size to 493 million yuan, a new historical high [1] - As of the report, the non-ferrous metals leading ETF (159876) received real-time net subscriptions exceeding 63 million units [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the recent surge in gold prices during the holiday period [1] - The rise in international gold prices is attributed to short-term fluctuations caused by the U.S. government shutdown, political changes in Japan, ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and global central banks' continued gold purchases [1] - Copper prices have also strengthened recently due to supply shortages and the logic of computational revolution [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, CITIC Securities indicates that the monetary easing from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, along with domestic initiatives to optimize production factors and improve profitability across various sectors, will facilitate the transmission of rising metal prices to downstream markets [1] Group 4: Sector Diversification - Different non-ferrous metals exhibit varying degrees of market conditions, rhythms, and driving factors, leading to inevitable differentiation [2] - A diversified approach through the non-ferrous metals leading ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) allows for better capture of the sector's beta performance, with the index weights for copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium at 27.6%, 14.5%, 13.1%, 10.4%, and 8.4% respectively [2] - This diversified strategy helps mitigate risks compared to investing in a single metal sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of the metals and chemicals industry, emphasizing that these sectors typically perform well during the second phase of a bull market, driven by monetary easing and inflation expectations, as well as demand growth from economic recovery [4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The metals and chemicals sectors are identified as strong cyclical industries that usually do not miss out on bull markets, particularly during the second phase of such markets [4]. - Recent financial reports indicate a recovery in performance for many companies within these sectors, suggesting a positive trend in earnings [4]. Group 2: Market Behavior - Retail investors are cautioned against impulsive buying during market peaks, as this can lead to increased stress and potential losses [3]. - The article highlights the importance of reflecting on missed opportunities, particularly during initial entry points and during low-volume pullbacks [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article notes that the main themes in the market are likely to continue evolving, with fluctuations and rotations occurring within established themes rather than new ones emerging [4]. - It suggests that the current market phase is characterized by residual momentum, indicating that while there may be opportunities, they are part of a broader cyclical pattern [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Monthly Report - Report Date: October 9, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - In October, the bond market may still face more negatives than positives. Although the economic data announced in September showed marginal weakness, it had limited impact on the market. With the stock market remaining strong, the impact of new public - fund regulations, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations, bond market sentiment remained weak. In October, potential negatives include the 14th Five - Year Plan and fiscal stimulus boosting credit expansion expectations, the intensification of anti - involution, and market waiting for the official implementation of the new public - fund regulations. Potential positives may be the slowdown of economic data boosting easing expectations, lower - than - expected incremental fiscal strength, and the central bank restarting bond purchases, but monetary easing is difficult to materialize. Overall, October may be a window period for risk clearing after the negatives are realized, and the bond market may stabilize. However, the rally phase may need to wait for the resurgence of easing expectations, which may be triggered by factors such as weakening fundamentals or deteriorating trade negotiations. It is recommended to patiently wait for better bond - market allocation opportunities, which may appear in the middle or late fourth quarter [8][67]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 9 - Month Market Review 3.1.1 Domestic Bond Market - In September, the domestic bond market fluctuated widely under the influence of the stock market, regulatory policies, and the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases. Treasury futures ended the month lower. At the beginning of the month, the stock market's decline boosted bond market sentiment, but the new public - fund regulations issued on September 5 caused a significant correction in the bond market in the early part of the month. In the middle and late parts of the month, the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases increased, but the bond market still fluctuated due to stock - market and anti - involution disturbances. The 30 - year Treasury futures had the largest adjustment, while the 5 - year Treasury futures had the smallest adjustment [11]. - The interest - rate curve steepened further in September. The long - end yields increased more, mainly due to the stock - market pressure, while the short - end was mainly affected by the new public - fund regulations, with the 2 - year variety being the most affected [14]. - The basis of Treasury futures narrowed in September. The short - end varieties were stable due to the loose funds, while the long - end basis continued to narrow, indicating that futures adjusted less than the spot [15]. 3.1.2 Overseas Market - In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and there may still be 50bp of cuts within the year, but there were differences among Fed members regarding the future path. The market also had a large divergence from the Fed's official view. Further interest - rate cuts may not lead to a significant decline in long - term US Treasury yields unless the US economy deteriorates significantly or Trump challenges the Fed's independence [18]. 3.1.3 Funding Situation - In September, the net injection of MLF and outright reverse repurchases was the same as last month, and short - term reverse repurchases were increased to support the funds. The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchases at the end of the month to support cross - quarter funds [23]. - The funding rates increased seasonally at the end of the month but were not tight. The DR007 increased compared to the beginning of the month but was lower than the same period in previous years. The inter - bank certificate of deposit rates remained stable, and the overall funding situation was stable [23]. 3.2 Bond Market Environment Analysis 3.2.1 Fundamental Situation - In August, domestic economic activities further slowed down. In terms of credit expansion, the willingness of the real economy to borrow was still weak. The new social financing in August was 256.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 46.55 billion yuan, mainly due to the decline in on - balance - sheet RMB loans. The M1 growth rate increased for five consecutive months, indicating an improvement in the activation of existing funds [34][36]. - In terms of real - economy activities, in August, the national economic activity data further slowed down. The characteristics of "supply better than demand, external demand better than domestic demand" were still obvious. Domestic demand was weak and showed marginal slowdown. Export growth slowed down, import growth declined, inflation remained at a low level, consumption continued to weaken, and investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate all declined significantly [40][43]. - In September, the leading indicators continued to improve, but there were still concerns. The official manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.8%, but the new - order index representing demand increased the least. The non - manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, and the construction and service industries' prosperity declined [49]. - High - frequency indicators showed that in September, there was a supply - demand divergence. Production indicators continued to rise, while domestic - demand indicators were weak, and external demand showed resilience [52]. 3.2.2 Policy Aspect - In the short term, the possibility of additional monetary - policy easing is low. The central bank is likely to focus on implementing existing policies. Attention should be paid to the possibility of fiscal - end stimulus and the central bank restarting bond purchases, especially the possibility of issuing special Treasury bonds in the fourth - quarter NPC Standing Committee meeting [58]. 3.2.3 Funding Aspect - In October, the funding situation is expected to remain stable and loose. The seasonal pressure on the funding side is weaker than in September. The main risk is the possible additional issuance of government bonds, but the central bank is likely to provide hedging [60][63]. 3.3 Next - Month Market Outlook 3.3.1 Market Logic and Outlook - In October, the bond market may still face more negatives than positives. After the negatives are realized, the bond market may stabilize, but the rally may need to wait for the resurgence of easing expectations [67]. 3.3.2 Arbitrage Strategy Outlook - **Cash - and - Carry Arbitrage**: Currently, there are no obvious positive - arbitrage opportunities, and reverse arbitrage should be participated in with caution. Some non - CTD bonds of 30 - year and 10 - year bonds have reverse - arbitrage space, but there is a risk of non - convergence at maturity [68]. - **Basis Strategy**: Focus on going long on the basis of short - end contracts. As the short - end varieties may return from a premium state to a normal discount state, and the current basis is at a relatively low level in the same historical period, there may be more room for upward regression [68]. - **Calendar - Spread Strategy**: It is not recommended to participate due to the poor liquidity of the next - quarter 03 contracts [69]. - **Inter - Commodity Spread Strategy**: In the short term, focus on steepening the yield curve. In October, the funding situation is expected to be stable, but the possibility of monetary easing is low, and more credit - expansion policies may lead to an increase in long - end yields [69].

结论： 我们认为高市早苗为"安倍经济学"的坚定继承者，在经济金融领域的政策中带有"希望货币宽松、日元贬值、财政扩张"的偏好。 高市 的当选，各类日本资产的价格波动方向或与"安倍经济学交易"基本一致，或会发生日元贬值、日股上升、日债收益率曲线走陡峭，同时由于高 市的当选具有意外性，短期内上述交易或表现明显。 人物介绍： 我们在《 25年日本自民党总裁选举#4：候选人高市早苗 》中详细介绍了高市早苗的出身、人物背景、从政经历、持有资产、当选 前的经济金融领域的政策主张等。 选举结果： 10月4日，自民党进行了总裁选举的投票与开票，当天北京时间12：53左右公布了第一轮投票的结果[1](图表1)，高市早苗、小泉 进次郎、林芳正得票数位列前三，但由于在首轮投票中未能有单个候选人得票数过半(详情参考《 25年日本自民党总裁选举#2：选举流程与日 本资产季节性 》)，因此投票数最高的两位候选人高市与小泉进入第二轮投票(决胜局投票)。10月4日北京时间13：55左右公布了第二轮投票的 结果[2](图表2)，与此前各类舆论调查的结果相悖，高市早苗在国会议员票与都道府县党支部的票数中双双领先，成为了自民党的新任总裁。 10月1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold sector stocks have seen significant increases, with GoldMining (GLDG.US) rising over 11% and other companies like Coeur Mining (CDE.US) and Harmony Gold (HMY.US) also experiencing gains, as spot gold prices have surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time [1] Group 1: Market Performance - GoldMining (GLDG.US) surged over 11% while Coeur Mining (CDE.US) and Gold Fields (GFI.US) rose nearly 3% each, and Harmony Gold (HMY.US) increased by over 2.8% [1] - Spot gold prices have increased by over 50% this year amid concerns over global trade prospects, Federal Reserve independence, and U.S. fiscal stability [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - The urgency for gold price increases has intensified as investors seek to hedge against potential market shocks following the U.S. government funding impasse [1] - The Federal Reserve's initiation of a monetary easing cycle has provided support for gold, which does not yield interest [1] Group 3: ETF Inflows - There has been a significant influx of capital into gold-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with physically-backed ETFs recording the largest monthly inflow in over three years in September [1]

在黄金史上首次突破每盎司4000美元大关之际，比特币价格反而有所回落。此番回调源于加密市场在不 到一周内大涨7.7%后出现的获利了结，同时巨鲸账户的账面收益也已相当可观。此外，美元指数正攀 升至两个月高位。不过机构对比特币的兴趣并未消退：上周美国现货比特币ETF净流入逾30亿美元，推 动总净流入突破600亿大关；据SoSoValue统计，本周再获20亿美元资金注入。XS.com市场分析师Linh Tran表示，"短期内比特币基本面依然向好，货币宽松预期、持续不断的ETF流入以及不散的避险需求 构成三重支撑。若美联储在后续会议中释放更明确的降息周期启动信号，比特币有望在四季度拓展新的 价格空间。"下一个关键考验或将来自美联储——交易员已开始押注降息，若官方确认政策转向，黄金 与比特币或能重获上涨动能。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses whether the gold market has reached its peak, linking it to global debt dynamics and the recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong market [3] - During the holiday period, gold prices surpassed $4000 per ounce, driven by a long-term trend of debt expansion among major global economies, which is expected to continue until 2025 [3] - The appointment of Japan's first female Prime Minister, who advocates for fiscal and monetary easing, is seen as a reinforcement of the bullish outlook for gold, as her policies aim to revitalize Japan's economy through increased spending and investment [3]