各位投资者朋友大家上午好欢迎来到2025年收官的年终的宏观策略谈我们今天关注对26年中国宏观政策的定调 对产业竞争格局和出口的前景还有就是经历了美联储的降息会议和中国的经济工作会议之后现在对于美股欧股和亚洲的股票的资产配置的博弈 今天像往常一样我会来抛砖引玉紧接着我们的首席策略师Laura会讲中美重量级会议之后对全球股市配置的最新看法我的同事郑林会讲刚刚出炉的经济数据对接下来经济工作会议也已经结束了12月到一季度之间几个政策抓手的时间顺序的想法 刚刚公布的数据反映出来的四季度的一些倾向可能让这种前置有了迫切感但这个前置更多的还是投向了基建比如说城市更新地下管网改造绿色转型的储能电网以及一些跟AI算力中心相关的公共开支领域 那么当然到了一年之中的六到九月份之间如果上半年的形势演绎从地产到物价到就业有进一步的情况的出现像刚才我们讲到的形势比人强也可能会追加相当于GDP0.5个点的新增的裁定空间我觉得现在国务院以及决策层是有这方面的灵活性进行相继抉择的 同样我们也考虑到当前整个中国经济打破通缩到足且长但是产业竞争的亮点是不乏的所以我们的亚洲经济学家Derek会来汇报一下我们刚刚出炉的一份深度报告对于中国的产业竞争格 ...

Group 1: China Civil Aviation Information Network (00696) - The company is a leading GDS provider globally and the largest in China, with a global market share of approximately 28% and a domestic market share of about 95% [10] - The company's performance is highly correlated with the growth of the civil aviation industry, with expected flight bookings reaching 732 million in 2024, surpassing the 2019 peak [10] - The launch of the "official direct sales platform" in July 2025 positions the company to enter the trillion-yuan OTA market, aiming to reduce reliance on traditional OTAs [10] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.21 billion, 2.43 billion, and 2.65 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a maintained "buy" rating based on recovery in the civil aviation sector [10] Group 2: Xiangsheng Medical (688358) - Xiangsheng Medical has focused on ultrasound technology since its establishment in 1996, holding over 400 intellectual property rights and offering a comprehensive range of ultrasound products [11] - The company aims to leverage its "portable + intelligent" advantage, with products like SonoFamily series that include high-end and portable ultrasound devices, enhancing its competitive edge [11] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 517 million, 620 million, and 744 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected at 146 million, 182 million, and 229 million yuan, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [13] Group 3: CIMC Enric (03899.HK) - CIMC Enric is a clean energy equipment platform under CIMC, focusing on LNG transportation, storage, and processing, with a projected net profit CAGR of 17% from 2020 to 2024 [13] - The company has a robust order backlog of 30.8 billion yuan, with 27.3 billion yuan in clean energy equipment orders, benefiting from the LNG market's growth [14] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.13 billion, 1.47 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a "buy" rating based on a 29% upside potential from its current valuation [15] Group 4: PVA Industry (皖维高新 600063) - The company has established a comprehensive PVA industrial chain, with a focus on cost advantages and long-term growth potential, aiming to expand into high-value new materials [23] - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in demand for PVA products, with a projected increase in production capacity and profitability in the coming years [23] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 8.064 billion, 8.881 billion, and 9.768 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected at 473 million, 622 million, and 862 million yuan, respectively, maintaining an "overweight" rating [25] Group 5: Social Services Industry - The introduction of spring and autumn holidays has stimulated tourism demand, with significant increases in travel and spending during these periods [26] - The winter "snow holiday" policy has also contributed to the recovery of the ice and snow tourism industry, with various incentives driving participation [26] - The overall service consumption is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting demand, with a focus on tourism and related sectors [27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the emergence of "jobless growth" and "K-shaped recovery" in the U.S. economy since mid-2025, questioning whether the economy can escape these characteristics in 2026 [1][4][77] - The U.S. economy has shown structural imbalances characterized by "jobless growth" and "K-shaped economy," with non-farm payrolls declining significantly since early 2025, averaging only 18,000 new jobs per month from June to August, far below historical non-recession averages [1][5][77] - The "K-shaped economy" reflects a divergence in consumption, employment, wages, and wealth, where high-income households experience significantly higher consumption growth compared to low-income households [20][30][67] Group 2 - The causes of the "K-shaped economy" are identified as a combination of economic slowdown, monetary easing, the impact of Trump's policies, and a structural bull market in U.S. stocks, with "jobless growth" being a primary factor [2][43][64] - The labor market has become increasingly relaxed, with low-wage groups feeling the economic downturn first and recovering last, indicating a structural issue in income and wealth distribution [2][53][67] - The article highlights that the "K-shaped gap" is difficult to bridge, raising the question of whether growth will be inclusive or if recession will eliminate wealth [3][77][94] Group 3 - The article posits that the U.S. economy is in a late cycle, with a shift from labor-driven growth to capital and technology-driven growth, leading to a decline in job opportunities and stagnant income growth [40][53][77] - The impact of tariffs and immigration policies has contributed to the decline in job creation, with a significant portion of the slowdown attributed to government layoffs and the effects of tariffs on employment [56][59][64] - The long-term trend of income and wealth inequality in the U.S. has been exacerbated since the 1980s, with the top 1% of income earners capturing a larger share of wealth, indicating a systemic issue in wealth distribution [67][94]

虽然不能排除第二种情境（短期、浅度衰退和缓慢复苏），但其发生可能性低于上一个。关税的影响往 往会滞后显现，这意味着美国的贸易政策仍可能推高通胀，从而侵蚀实际工资，进一步削弱消费者信 心。目前已经出现了所谓"K型经济"的说法，就是高收入家庭欣欣向荣，低收入家庭举步维艰。企业信 心也可能受到打击，尤其是在对人工智能泡沫的担忧导致股价大幅回调和资本支出放缓的情况下。但即 使在这种较悲观的情况下衰退也会很短很浅，因为美联储会更积极地降息，财政当局可能会采取额外刺 激措施来支持经济复苏。 最后也不能排除一路上行、不着陆的情境，因为最近的一些指标表明经济比许多人之前想象的更具韧 性。比如招聘明显放缓的原因可能是特朗普政府打击移民导致劳动力供应下降，以及崭新或最近采用的 技术带来的早期生产率提高。紧张的产品和劳动力市场将提高工资水平，促进整体增长，而核心价格通 胀率（不包括食品和能源）仍将接近3%。在这种情况下，那些担心经济过热的联邦公开市场委员会利 率制定者将占据上风，只要高于潜力的增长和高于目标的通胀持续存在，美联储就可能不会降息。 尽管如此，最后这种情境并非基线（最有可能），因为近期有其他指标表明经济确实有所疲软。此 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that since mid-2025, the U.S. economy has exhibited characteristics of "jobless growth" and a "K-shaped recovery," raising questions about whether the economy can transition out of this K-shaped feature in 2026, either through jobless growth dragging down overall growth or high growth leading to full employment [2][5][89] Group 2 - The U.S. economy has been experiencing structural imbalances characterized by "jobless growth" and a "K-shaped economy" since early 2025, with non-farm payrolls declining to an average of 18,000 per month from June to August 2025, significantly below historical non-recession averages [2][6][89] - The K-shaped economy is marked by disparities in consumption, employment, wages, and wealth, where high-income households see significantly higher consumption growth compared to low-income households, and the wealth gap continues to widen [2][23][89] Group 3 - The causes of the K-shaped economy include economic slowdown, monetary easing, the impact of Trump's policies, and a structurally bullish stock market, with "jobless growth" being a primary factor contributing to the K-shaped economy [3][50][89] - The labor market has become more relaxed, with low-wage groups being the first to feel the economic downturn and the last to benefit from recovery, indicating that the U.S. economy has entered a late cycle [3][62][89] Group 4 - The article discusses the difficulty in bridging the K-shaped gap, suggesting that the U.S. economy may not significantly improve in 2026, with a potential shift from "jobless growth" to "low employment growth," but the K-shaped characteristics may persist due to a weak labor market balance [4][90][89] - Historically, the K-shaped recovery phenomenon has been observed after previous recessions, where unemployment rates remained high during recovery phases, indicating a pattern that may repeat in the current economic context [4][90][89] Group 5 - The article highlights that the K-shaped characteristics of the U.S. economy are not merely cyclical but trend-based, with significant structural forces at play since the 1980s, leading to increasing income and wealth inequality [4][77][89] - The wealth distribution has become increasingly concentrated, with the top 20% of households holding 71% of net assets and 87% of corporate equity and mutual fund assets, while the bottom 20% hold only about 3% [35][89]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人 | 陈达飞 摘要 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：美联储FOMC会议偏鸽，关注下周经济数据 多数发达国家国债利率上行，贵金属价格大涨 。当周，标普500下跌0.6%，纳指下跌1.6%；10Y美债收益 率上行5.0bp至4.19%；美元指数下跌0.6%至98.40，离岸人民币升至7.0535；WTI原油下跌4.4%至57.4美 元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨2.5%至4302.7美元/盎司。 欧元区2026年财政基调为总体中性 。12月11日，欧元区发布2026年欧元区财政预算声明。声明指出， 2026年将保持总体中性立场。预计2025年欧元区赤字率3.2%，2026年为3.3%。政府债务率预计从2025 年 的88.8%小幅上升至2026年的89.8%。 12月美联储FOMC会议偏鸽，关注下周公布的美国11月就业、CPI数据 。12月FOMC例会：降息25BP， 重启"扩表"，首月购买短期美债400亿美元，降息投票出现三张反对票；10月美国JOLT职位空缺767万 人，高于市场预期；重点关注下周公布的美国就业、CPI数据。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓 ...

与2025年相比，发达经济体和新兴市场都有望实现更强劲的增长。 今年是美国经济跌宕起伏的一年。虽然与人工智能相关的投资出现了大规模增长，但美国总统特朗普的 关税和其他政策所带来的不确定性却抑制了下半年的经济增长，同时有史以来最长的政府停摆导致官方 就业和通胀数据受到干扰，进一步模糊了政策制定者的感知。而当前最大的问题则是2026年会怎样。 而"金发姑娘"情境之所以最可能出现，因为市场纪律、优秀的顾问团队和仍然独立的美联储（尽管特朗 普不时对其发出威胁）已经迫使白宫有所退缩并逐步降低4月2日宣布的高关税水平。自那以后美国政府 已经通过谈判达成了多个贸易协议和框架，其特点是关税增幅较为温和（通常是以投资美国的承诺为交 换条件）。因此美国和全球经济增长有所放缓，但通胀率也只是略有上升。 如果明年年中出现强劲复苏，动力将来自以下几个因素：美联储进一步放宽货币政策；仍在酝酿中的财 政刺激措施（最近立法确定的大部分支出削减要到2026年中期选举之后才会落地）；强劲的家庭和企业 资产负债表；宽松的金融条件（由于股票价格高企、债券收益率和信贷息差较低、美元走弱）；以及与 人工智能相关的资本支出带来的强劲利好。此外随着关税的基 ...

Economic Characteristics - Since mid-2025, the U.S. economy has exhibited "jobless growth" with an average monthly non-farm employment increase dropping to 18,000, significantly below the historical average of 109,000 during non-recession periods[1][12] - The U.S. economy is experiencing a "K-shaped economy," characterized by diverging consumption, employment, wages, and wealth, where high-income households see consumption growth significantly outpacing that of low-income households[1][2] Causes of K-shaped Economy - The "jobless growth" phenomenon is attributed to structural imbalances in the economy, including economic slowdown, monetary easing, and the impacts of Trump's policies on immigration and tariffs, alongside a structural bull market in U.S. stocks[2][42] - The labor market has become increasingly relaxed, with low-wage groups feeling the economic downturn first and recovering last, leading to a widening gap in income and wealth distribution[2][43] Long-term Trends - The K-shaped characteristics of income and wealth distribution in the U.S. have been developing since the 1980s, with real labor income growth lagging behind productivity growth, reflecting the rise of capital and technology over labor[2][62] - The wealth distribution is heavily skewed, with the top 20% of households holding 71% of net assets and 87% of corporate equity and mutual fund assets, while the bottom 20% hold only about 3%[2][31] Future Outlook - The U.S. economy may transition from "jobless growth" to "low employment growth" in 2026, but the K-shaped characteristics are unlikely to change significantly due to a persistently relaxed labor market and continued expansion of AI capital expenditures[3][68] - Historical cases of "jobless recovery" indicate that total demand must expand to elevate labor demand and tighten the labor market, a path that may be challenging to achieve in the current economic climate[3][68]

Economic Overview - Since mid-2025, the U.S. economy has exhibited characteristics of "jobless growth" and a "K-shaped economy," with non-farm employment numbers declining to an average of 18,000 per month from June to August, significantly below the historical average of 109,000 during non-recession periods[1][15] - The GDP growth rate remains robust, supported by AI capital expenditures, despite the lack of job growth[1][21] K-shaped Economy Characteristics - The K-shaped economy is marked by a divergence in consumption, employment, wages, and wealth, where high-income households experience significantly higher consumption growth compared to low-income households[1][26] - For instance, the spending growth difference in air travel and furniture between high and low-income families reached 10.5 and 10.2 percentage points, respectively, as of November 1[1][27] Causes of K-shaped Economy - The "jobless growth" phenomenon is attributed to structural imbalances in the economy, including the late-cycle economic phase, monetary easing, and the impacts of Trump's policies on immigration and tariffs[2][45] - Since the 1980s, the growth of real labor income has lagged behind productivity growth, indicating a long-term trend of increasing income and wealth inequality[2][66] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market has transitioned from a tight supply to a surplus, with the Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) dropping from a peak of 1.46 in January 2022 to 0.25 by August 2025, indicating a loosening labor market[2][51] - The unemployment rate for marginalized groups, such as low-education and minority populations, has risen significantly, while the unemployment rate for white individuals remains low[2][46] Future Economic Outlook - In 2026, the U.S. economy is expected to shift from "jobless growth" to "low employment growth," but the K-shaped characteristics may persist due to a weak labor market balance[3][81] - The equilibrium employment number has decreased to 30,000-80,000 jobs per month, suggesting that maintaining a low unemployment rate will not necessarily lead to a return to high employment growth[3][83]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's December FOMC meeting was dovish, with a 25 basis point rate cut and a restart of asset purchases, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [2][69][73] - The Eurozone's fiscal stance for 2026 is projected to remain neutral, with a deficit rate of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026, alongside a slight increase in government debt from 88.8% to 89.8% [63][64] - The U.S. job market remains resilient, with October JOLT job openings at 7.67 million, exceeding market expectations of 7.12 million [73] Group 2 - Developed market stock indices showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 down 0.6% and the Nasdaq down 1.6%, while emerging markets generally saw gains [3][8] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5.0 basis points to 4.19%, reflecting a trend of increasing yields across developed nations [17][23] - Commodity prices mostly declined, with WTI crude oil down 4.4% to $57.4 per barrel and COMEX gold up 2.5% to $4,302.7 per ounce [45][51] Group 3 - The dollar index fell by 0.6% to 98.40, while the offshore yuan appreciated to 7.0535 against the dollar [29][39] - The Eurozone's defense spending exemption is expected to increase government expenditures, contributing to the overall fiscal dynamics [63] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at a rate of 3.6% in the third quarter, indicating stability despite rising initial jobless claims [75]