山东标品基差(+80) 500 300 100 -300 -500 s 疯皮期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/18 | | 指标 | 5/19 | 6/9 | 6/13 | 6/16 | 6/17 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3502 | 3488 | 3628 | 3667 | 3644 | -23 | 156 | | | BU06 | 3502 | 3516 | 3600 | 3650 | 3381 | -269 | -135 | | | BU09 | 3430 | 3488 | 3628 | 3667 | 3644 | -23 | 156 | | | BU12 | 3231 | 3320 | 3469 | 3499 | 3482 | -17 | 162 | | 据面 | BU03 | 3227 | 3267 | 3394 | 3423 | 3379 | -44 | 112 | | | 成交量 | 349940 | 463328 | 758434 | ...

Group 1: Metals and Minerals - Copper (CU): Spot price is 79,500, with a month - to - month basis rate of 0.44%. The settlement price of the current - month contract is 78,300, and the price change compared to yesterday is 795 [4]. - Aluminum (AL): Spot price is 20,630, basis rate is 1.18%. The price change compared to yesterday is 455, and the current - month contract price is 20,390 [4]. - Zinc (ZN): Spot price is 22,000, basis rate is 0.92%. The price change compared to yesterday is 200, and the current - month contract price is 21,520 [4]. - Lead (PB): Spot price is 16,920, basis rate is - 1.00%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 165, and the current - month contract price is 16,925 [4]. - Tin (SN): Spot price is 265,300, basis rate is 0.29%. The price change compared to yesterday is 770, and the current - month contract price is 264,280 [4]. - Nickel (NI): Spot price is 120,725, basis rate is 0.88%. The price change compared to yesterday is 755, and the current - month contract price is 119,970 [4]. - Industrial Silicon: Spot price is 8,700, basis rate is 11.95%. The price change compared to yesterday is 795, and the current - month contract price is 7,355 [4]. - Iron Ore: Spot price is 863, basis rate is 8.07%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 23, and the current - month contract price is 704.5 [4]. - Coke: Spot price is 1,392.5, basis rate is - 4.90%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 67.2, and the current - month contract price is 1,371 [4]. - Coking Coal: Spot price is 980, basis rate is 23.19%. The price change compared to yesterday is 184.5, and the current - month contract price is 795.5 [4]. - Power Coal (ZC): Spot price is 801.4, basis rate is - 23.01%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 184.4, and the current - month contract price is 617 [4]. - Silicon Iron (SF): Spot price is 5,292, basis rate is - 1.85%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 202, and the current - month contract price is 5,090 [4]. - Manganese Silicon (SM): Spot price is 5,622, basis rate is - 2.07%. The price change compared to yesterday is 266, and the current - month contract price is 5,584 [4]. - Stainless Steel: Spot price is 12,750, basis rate is 4.76%. The price change compared to yesterday is 145, and the current - month contract price is 12,530 [4]. - Glass (FG): Spot price is 1,130, basis rate is 15.31%. The price change compared to yesterday is 89, and the current - month contract price is 980 [4]. Group 2: Agricultural Products - Soybean (A): Spot price is 4,242, basis rate is - 6.65%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 170, and the current - month contract price is 4,130 [4]. - Soybean Meal (M): Spot price is 3,073, basis rate is - 6.40%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 223, and the current - month contract price is 2,850 [4]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): Spot price is 2,671, basis rate is - 4.90%. The price change compared to yesterday is 159, and the current - month contract price is 2,374 [4]. - Soybean Oil (Y): Spot price is 8,300, basis rate is 4.27%. The price change compared to yesterday is 724, and the current - month contract price is 7,960 [4]. - Rapeseed Oil (OI): Spot price is 9,650, basis rate is 1.53%. The price change compared to yesterday is 466, and the current - month contract price is 9,374 [4]. - Peanut (PK): Spot price is 9,400, basis rate is 13.31%. The price change compared to yesterday is 1,306, and the current - month contract price is 8,296 [4]. - Palm Oil (P): Spot price is 8,790, basis rate is - 0.59%. The price change compared to yesterday is 532, and the current - month contract price is 8,372 [4]. - Corn (C): Spot price is 2,391, basis rate is 0.89%. The price change compared to yesterday is 68, and the current - month contract price is 2,312 [4]. - Corn Starch (CS): Spot price is 2,781, basis rate is 0.52%. The price change compared to yesterday is 20, and the current - month contract price is 2,720 [4]. - Apples (AP): Spot price is 7,800, basis rate is 2.50%. The price change compared to yesterday is 177, and the current - month contract price is 7,610 [4]. - Eggs (JD): Spot price is 5,666, basis rate is 27.41%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 1,069, and the current - month contract price is 3,660 [4]. - Live Pigs: Spot price is 14,250, basis rate is 3.41%. The price change compared to yesterday is 670, and the current - month contract price is 13,780 [4]. - Cotton (CF): Spot price is 13,530, basis rate is 9.53%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 1290, and the current - month contract price is 14,820 [4]. Group 3: Chemicals - Methanol (MA): Spot price is 2,630, basis rate is 2.20%. The price change compared to yesterday is 166, and the current - month contract price is 2,464 [4]. - Ethanol (EG): Spot price is 4,455, basis rate is 0.10%. The price change compared to yesterday is 81, and the current - month contract price is 4,323 [4]. - PTA: Spot price is 5,000, basis rate is 4.91%. The price change compared to yesterday is 234, and the current - month contract price is 4,766 [4]. - Polypropylene (PP): Spot price is 7,370, basis rate is 3.32%. The price change compared to yesterday is 237, and the current - month contract price is 7,059 [4]. - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF): Spot price is 6,530, basis rate is 0.31%. The price change compared to yesterday is 94, and the current - month contract price is 6,442 [4]. - Plastic: Spot price is 7,350, basis rate is 0.16%. The price change compared to yesterday is 12, and the current - month contract price is 7,338 [4]. - PVC (V): Spot price is 5,405, basis rate is 11.21%. The price change compared to yesterday is 486, and the current - month contract price is 4,860 [4]. - Rubber (RU): Spot price is 14,825, basis rate is - 0.07%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 925, and the current - month contract price is 13,900 [4]. - 20 - number Rubber (NR): Spot price is 12,315, basis rate is 1.28%. The price change compared to yesterday is 420, and the current - month contract price is 12,055 [4]. - Soda Ash (SA): Spot price is 1,214, basis rate is 3.41%. The price change compared to yesterday is 40, and the current - month contract price is 1,174 [4]. - Urea (UR): Spot price is 1,750, basis rate is 1.57%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 175, and the current - month contract price is 1,723 [4]. - Pulp (SP): Spot price is 6,133, basis rate is - 0.71%. The price change compared to yesterday is 16.28, and the current - month contract price is 5,232 [4]. Group 4: Energy and Others - Crude Oil (SC): Spot price is 524.6, basis rate is - 6.05%. The price change compared to yesterday is 3.3, and the current - month contract price is 505.5 [4]. - Fuel Oil: Spot price is 3,497, basis rate is 0.33%. The price change compared to yesterday is 221, and the current - month contract price is 3,079 [4]. - Asphalt (BU): Spot price is 3,800, basis rate is 3.63%. The price change compared to yesterday is 301, and the current - month contract price is 3,499 [4]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): Spot price is 3,946, basis rate is 1.85%. The price change compared to yesterday is 117, and the current - month contract price is 3,260 [4]. - LPG (PG): Spot price is 4,698, basis rate is 6.82%. The price change compared to yesterday is 488, and the current - month contract price is 4,275 [4]. Group 5: Financial Index - CSI 300 (IF): Spot price is 3,873.8, basis rate is 0.10%. The price change compared to yesterday is 4.0, and the current - month contract price is 3,869.8 [4]. - SSE 50 (IH): Spot price is 2,685.0, basis rate is 0.25%. The price change compared to yesterday is 6.6, and the current - month contract price is 2,637.6 [4]. - CSI 500 (IC): Spot price is 5,767.8, basis rate is 0.01%. The price change compared to yesterday is 11.6, and the current - month contract price is 5,582.0 [4].

Group 1: Report Core View - This week, the high-sulfur crack fluctuated, with crude oil rising significantly. High-sulfur fuel oil, with a large proportion of Iranian supply, performed well in oil product profits. The 380-month spread fluctuated, at $11.5 in July - August, and the basis strengthened. The domestic and international near - and far - month spreads of FU were differentiated, with the 07 contract falling to around -$5 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the 09 contract fluctuating at $9. The 0.5 crack in Singapore declined, the month spread strengthened month - on - month, and the basis strengthened [6]. - This week, on - shore inventories in Singapore continued to accumulate, high - sulfur floating storage inventories accumulated, low - sulfur floating storage inventories fluctuated at a low level, ARA slightly destocked, floating storage inventories fluctuated, on - shore inventories in Fujairah accumulated, and floating storage inventories increased significantly. Saudi Arabia's shipments increased significantly, and Russia's shipments decreased month - on - month. Iran and Iraq account for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high - sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia - Pacific region, and cannot participate in physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk event in the Strait of Hormuz escalates, the impact magnitude will increase [7]. - Recently, high - sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power - generation season, the near - month spreads of domestic and international FU are suppressed, the valuation is low, and the game continues. In the future, attention should be paid to the shipping situation in the Middle East, and the downward driving force for domestic and international prices has decreased. The production of LU increased month - on - month [7]. Group 2: Fuel Oil Price Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/06/10 | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 | 407.23 | 409.51 | 417.96 | 441.01 | 448.31 | 7.30 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 | 457.96 | 461.45 | 468.13 | 487.74 | 489.27 | 1.53 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -2.96 | -2.98 | -2.76 | -2.60 | -1.35 | 1.25 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 | 616.60 | 616.64 | 625.97 | 662.68 | 661.89 | -0.79 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -158.64 | -155.19 | -157.84 | -174.94 | -172.62 | 2.32 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 17.90 | 15.03 | 16.61 | 16.61 | 17.44 | 0.83 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 50.73 | 51.94 | 50.17 | 46.73 | 40.96 | -5.77 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/06/10 | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 420.07 | 415.25 | 429.92 | 459.79 | 470.69 | 10.90 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 426.97 | 422.25 | 437.61 | 467.24 | 477.81 | 10.57 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 486.14 | 488.19 | 499.41 | 525.21 | 526.47 | 1.26 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 81.98 | 81.81 | 83.98 | 87.92 | 89.80 | 1.88 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -0.28 | -0.88 | -0.39 | 0.21 | 2.16 | 1.95 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -120.51 | -117.20 | -122.04 | -125.40 | -138.05 | -12.65 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Type | 2025/06/10 | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 441.10 | 435.55 | 448.16 | 471.75 | 484.57 | 12.82 | | FOB VLSFO | 496.78 | 499.42 | 511.48 | 534.27 | 536.09 | 1.82 | | 380 Basis | 12.25 | 12.95 | 10.25 | 7.80 | 10.40 | 2.60 | | High - sulfur Domestic - International Spread | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 12.2 | 11.0 | -1.2 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - International Spread | 16.5 | 17.6 | 17.1 | 20.3 | 18.7 | -1.6 | [5] Domestic FU | Type | 2025/06/10 | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2780 | 2780 | 2852 | 3048 | 3079 | 31 | | FU 05 | 2717 | 2727 | 2798 | 2986 | 3004 | 18 | | FU 09 | 2924 | 2912 | 2997 | 3205 | 3276 | 71 | | FU 01 - 05 | 63 | 53 | 54 | 62 | 75 | 13 | | FU 05 - 09 | -207 | -185 | -199 | -219 | -272 | -53 | | FU 09 - 01 | 144 | 132 | 145 | 157 | 197 | 40 | [5] Domestic LU | Type | 2025/06/10 | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/13 | 2025/06/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3431 | 3414 | 3496 | 3671 | 3695 | 24 | | LU 05 | 3358 | 3348 | 3461 | 3625 | 3620 | -5 | | LU 09 | 3518 | 3524 | 3609 | 3785 | 3829 | 44 | | LU 01 - 05 | 73 | 66 | 35 | 46 | 75 | 29 | | LU 05 - 09 | -160 | -176 | -148 | -160 | -209 | -49 | | LU 09 - 01 | 87 | 110 | 113 | 114 | 134 | 20 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamentals of the LPG market are marginally improving but still under pressure, with significant geopolitical risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Data and Analysis 3.1 Price and Basis Changes - **Daily Price Changes**: On June 16, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, and South China changed to 4610 (down 10), 4616 (up 53), and 4720 (up 80) respectively; the price of ether - post carbon four increased by 30 to 4980. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil LPG at 4610. The PG futures price rose significantly, with the basis of the 07 contract changing to 212 (down 9) and the 07 - 09 spread changing to 178 (down 17) [1] - **Weekly Changes**: The civil LPG price increased significantly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4603. The 07 contract basis weakened to 221 (down 130), and the 07 - 09 spread was 195 (up 10). The PG - CP spread was 18 US dollars (up 27), and the FEI - CP spread was - 19 (up 31) [1] 3.2 Market Factors - **Supply - related Factors**: The US - to - Far East arbitrage window closed. Port and factory inventories decreased. Arrivals and out - shipments declined, and it is expected that out - shipments will increase and arrivals will decrease in the future. The waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs decreased [1] - **Demand - related Factors**: Chemical demand improved overall. The PDH operating rate increased to 64.3%, the alkylation operating rate increased to 48.18%, and MTBE production increased significantly. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1] 3.3 Profit and Spread Analysis - **Profit Changes**: PDH production profit deteriorated, with FEI production profit lower than CP on a weekly basis and higher than CP on a daily basis. Alkylation oil profitability decreased significantly, MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit increased, and isomerization etherification profit decreased [1] - **Spread Movements**: FEI - MOPJ and naphtha crack spreads decreased [1] 3.4 Other Information - The number of registered warrants was 9005 lots (down 335) [1]

1. Index Trends - On June 16th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.35% to close at 3388.73 points, with a trading volume of 481.594 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.41% to close at 10163.55 points, with a trading volume of 733.481 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.68% with a trading volume of 253.088 billion yuan, opening at 6089.96, closing at 6147.46, reaching a high of 6151.51 and a low of 6089.96 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 0.48% with a trading volume of 170.989 billion yuan, opening at 5725.0, closing at 5767.81, reaching a high of 5775.95 and a low of 5725.0 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.32% with a trading volume of 68.811 billion yuan, opening at 2666.82, closing at 2685.01, reaching a high of 2687.11 and a low of 2664.43 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose by 0.25% with a trading volume of 246.861 billion yuan, opening at 3853.62, closing at 3873.8, reaching a high of 3876.17 and a low of 3853.62 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 41.45 points from the previous close, with sectors such as computer, power equipment, and media significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 27.57 points from the previous close, with sectors such as media, electronics, and non - bank finance significantly pulling the index up, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 9.62 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks, non - bank finance, and electronics significantly pulling the index up, while sectors such as automobiles, non - ferrous metals, and pharmaceutical and biological pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 8.58 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks and non - bank finance significantly pulling the index up, while non - ferrous metals pulled it down [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 13.01, IM01 of - 107.61, IM02 of - 269.2, and IM03 of - 449.07 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 5.28, IC01 of - 78.58, IC02 of - 185.61, and IC03 of - 311.9 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 2.83, IF01 of - 45.25, IF02 of - 73.74, and IF03 of - 104.93 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 5.71, IH01 of - 43.45, IH02 of - 48.57, and IH03 of - 50.32 [13]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Multiple tables show the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time points [23][25][26].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

焦煤：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 2025 年 6 月 17 日 焦炭：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 流跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 795.5 | 21 | 2. 71% | | | | J2509 | 1371 | 21.5 | 1.59% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1028795 | 579001 | 23873 | | | | J2509 | 30828 | 51871 | -1247 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1170 | 1170 | 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 860 | 878 | -18 | | | | 吕梁低疏主焦 | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main contradiction in futures pricing is the basis, which is currently significantly misaligned, indicating that futures are undervalued compared to spot prices [6][12][46]. Group 1: Basis Analysis - The basis is derived from the relationship between futures and spot prices, influenced by supply and demand dynamics reflected in inventory levels [7][8]. - Different commodities have their own basis, and the Wenhua Commodity Index should also have a corresponding basis rate [9][10]. - In June, the Wenhua Index's basis rate reached nearly 4%, suggesting a substantial misalignment where futures are undervalued relative to spot prices [12]. Group 2: Inventory and Profit Dynamics - The direction of inventory changes will determine whether commodities will continue to deplete or not, which is linked to profit margins and operating rates [15]. - The non-ferrous sector shows minor contradictions, while the black and chemical sectors exhibit significant basis discrepancies, with futures prices lagging behind spot prices [17][20][23]. Group 3: Future Basis Reversion - The reversion of the 2509 contract basis will depend on the ongoing contradictions in overseas demand and upstream-downstream profit distribution [26][28]. - If upstream prices stabilize, it could lead to an overall increase in industrial products, causing futures prices to rise faster than spot prices, thus narrowing the basis [42][44]. Group 4: Research and Strategy Development - Understanding the basis is crucial for researchers and traders to differentiate between spot and futures logic, enabling effective arbitrage strategies [49][50]. - The basis serves as a fundamental principle for futures, and its analysis can lead to better insights into market dynamics and trading strategies [52].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios [1] Summary by Directory - **Futures - Spot Spread**: IF is - 7.78 (41.80% 1 - year, 40.00% all - time), IH is - 11.23 (- 2.16 change, 25.40% 1 - year, 19.50% all - time), IC is - 11.24 (8.69 change, 77.00% 1 - year, 67.00% all - time), IM is - 21.81 (13.61 change, 90.00% 1 - year, 48.30% all - time) [1] - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For different contracts like next - month vs. current - month, season - month vs. current - month, far - month vs. current - month, values and changes are provided for IF, IH, IC, and IM [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Such as CSI 500/CSI 300 = 1.4855 (- 0.0046 change, 60.20% 1 - year, 41.10% all - time), IC/IF = 1.4856 (- 0.0027 change, 64.70% 1 - year, 59.30% all - time), etc. [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of various treasury bond futures spreads and basis [4] Summary by Directory - **Basis**: TS basis has an IRR of 1.7719 (- 0.0506 change, 33.90% percentile), TF basis has an IRR of 1.8376 (- 0.0358 change, 51.80% percentile), etc. [4] - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For different contracts like current - season vs. next - season, values and changes are provided for TS, TF, T, and TL [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Such as TS - TF = - 3.7110 (- 0.0300 change, 2.00% percentile), TF - T = - 2.8450 (0.0250 change, 1.40% percentile), etc. [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Provides information on domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals [7] Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2508 contract is 794.36 yuan/g (1.17% increase), AG2508 contract is 8791 yuan/kg (- 0.32% decrease); foreign COMEX gold is 3452.60 dollars/ounce (1.36% increase), COMEX silver is 36.37 dollars/ounce (- 0.11% decrease) [7] - **Spot Prices**: London gold is 3433.35 dollars/ounce (1.40% increase), London silver is 36.29 dollars/ounce (- 0.13% decrease), etc. [7] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 3.50 (1.30 change, 12.40% 1 - year percentile), silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract is 2 (- 49 previous, 91.10% 1 - year percentile) [7] - **Price Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver is 94.93 (1.37 change, 1.47% increase), Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver is 90.36 (1.33 change, 1.49% increase) [7] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.41% (1.1% increase), 2 - year US Treasury yield is 3.96% (1.5% increase), etc. [7] - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 18177 kg (1.85% increase), COMEX silver inventory is 498460011 (0.05% increase), etc. [7] Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Displays spot quotes, index changes, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry [11][12] Summary by Directory - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates for MAERSK is 2796 dollars/FEU (- 2.03% decrease), CMA is 3857 dollars/FEU (1.88% increase), etc. [12] - **Index Changes**: SCFIS (European route) is 1622.81 points (29.53% increase), SCFI comprehensive index is 2088.24 (- 6.79% decrease) [11] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 is 1472.8 (2.07% increase), EC2508 (main contract) is 2068.0 (4.20% increase), basis (main contract) is - 315.1 (374.1 change, - 54.28% change) [11] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3247.12 million TEU (0.00% change), Shanghai port on - time rate is 42.50 (46.45% increase), etc. [11] Group 5: Trading Calendar Core View - Lists overseas and domestic data and information sources and corresponding economic indicators or financial events [13] Summary by Directory - **Overseas Data/Info**: In the agricultural product sector, includes Brazil Secex weekly report, USDA crop growth and export inspection in the US, NOPA soybean crushing [13] - **Domestic Data/Info**: For macro data, includes 70 - city housing price report, national economic operation press conference, etc.; for different commodities like iron ore, black and non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, etc., specific data such as shipments, inventories are provided [13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the average returns for various quantitative strategies have been positive, with the A500 Enhanced Strategy showing a year-to-date average return of +7.3% and an average excess return of +9.8% [3]. - The report also notes significant fluctuations in trading volumes across different indices, with the CSI 500 showing a year-to-date average daily trading volume of 2,101 billion, reflecting a 50.1% increase [5]. - The report identifies the top-performing sectors over the past month, with Pharmaceuticals and Biotech leading at +9.8%, followed by Oil and Petrochemicals at +5.4% [6]. Summary by Sections Trading Volume Analysis - The average daily trading volume for the CSI 300 has been 2,927 billion, with a year-to-date increase of +26.6% [5]. - The CSI 1000 has shown a year-to-date average daily trading volume of 2,989 billion, reflecting an increase of +80.8% [5]. Sector Performance - The top three sectors for the week were Oil and Petrochemicals (+4.4%), Non-ferrous Metals (+3.5%), and National Defense and Military Industry (+2.3%) [6]. - The worst-performing sectors for the week included Consumer Retail (-4.3%), Telecom Services (-3.3%), and Semiconductors (-3.3%) [6]. Basis and Spread Analysis - The report indicates that the basis remains high, with the annualized discount for the current month contracts for IF/IC/IM at +12.3%, +11.9%, and +21.7%, respectively [6].