Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend due to the strengthening of the US dollar and improved risk sentiment following a trade agreement between the US and EU [1][2] - Gold prices recently fell to a near three-week low, trading around $3310 per ounce, with a significant drop of $138 from a recent high of $3438 [2] - The market is currently volatile, with expectations for significant price movements in the coming days due to upcoming economic data releases [1][2] Group 2 - The US crude oil price is trading around $66.97 per barrel, having increased nearly 3% recently, influenced by the US-EU trade agreement and geopolitical developments [1] - Technical analysis suggests that crude oil may have some upward potential, with a focus on resistance levels around $69 [3] - Day trading strategies for both gold and oil suggest short positions for gold and long positions for oil, with specific target prices and stop-loss levels outlined [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the fluctuations in gold prices and the impact of economic factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve policies and international trade agreements [3][5][6] - As of July 29, 2023, the gold ETF (159937) decreased by 0.43% with a trading volume of 1.33 billion yuan, indicating a decline in investor interest [1] - Spot gold prices reached a low of $3,310 per ounce on July 28, marking the first drop since July 17, but showed a slight recovery to $3,319.49 per ounce by July 29, reflecting a short-term bullish trend [3] Group 2 - The U.S.-China trade talks held in Stockholm on July 28 are expected to influence market uncertainty and gold demand [4] - President Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which currently range from 4.25% to 4.50%, but the Fed is likely to maintain its stance due to strong employment data [5] - Analysts from Huatai Securities predict that the Fed will likely hold rates steady in the upcoming meeting on July 31, with future rate decisions dependent on economic data from July and August [5][6] Group 3 - Recent factors affecting gold prices include the reduction of market uncertainty due to the U.S.-Europe trade agreement and ongoing geopolitical tensions [6] - The upcoming FOMC meeting and non-farm payroll data are critical events that could influence market sentiment and gold prices [6] - Gold ETFs and related funds provide investors with a low-cost, diversified way to invest in gold, with the potential for long-term value appreciation [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15 - 7.20 in the next week. Investors are advised to use options to hedge tail risks in the current low - volatility environment [2]. - The release of the child - rearing subsidy policy is expected to stimulate related sectors and drive the stock index up. The outcome of the China - US talks and the Politburo meeting this week will affect the stock index trend [3]. - For treasury bonds, although prices have recovered, there are still risks. The market is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to key events such as the FOMC, China - US talks, and the Politburo meeting this week [4][5]. - In the short term, the commodity market is volatile. It is recommended to wait for the sentiment to stabilize before trading. In the long term, focus on the implementation of anti - involution policies and changes in the fundamentals of some commodities [6]. - The price of the EC in the shipping index is expected to be slightly bearish in the short term, but there is support at the bottom. Pay attention to the actions of shipping companies, spot quotes, and cease - fire negotiations [7][8][9]. - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish, while the short - term volatility of London gold may increase. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [10][11][12]. - Copper prices may decline slightly in the short term as the anti - involution fever subsides. Attention should be paid to macro events this week [13]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina may experience high - volatility trading, and investors can consider inter - month arbitrage; casting aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference changes [14]. - Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term. It is appropriate to short on rallies [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate widely and be bearish in the long term. Focus on the callback of nickel - iron and the recovery of nickel salt demand [17]. - Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution fever fades. Pay attention to macro events in late July [18]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the situation of mines and important meetings this week [19]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to have support at the bottom. Pay attention to the July meetings [20][21]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Wait for the peak season and changes in macro and downstream purchasing sentiment [22]. - For steel products, the upward trend may not end. Pay attention to the actual demand for steel, new tariff policies, and the implementation of anti - involution policies [23]. - Iron ore prices are mainly affected by non - fundamental factors. The short - term fundamentals are expected to remain stable, but the volatility may increase near the meeting [24]. - For coking coal and coke, the market may return to rationality after the sharp decline. Further upward movement requires super - expected macro policies. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and China - US trade negotiations [25][26][27]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term risk of chasing high is high. Pay attention to the implementation of policy expectations and control risks [27][28]. - Crude oil prices are expected to continue the sideways - shock pattern. Geopolitical risks need to be focused on [29][30]. - For PX - PTA, it is recommended to expand the TA processing fee on dips [30][31]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is recommended to wait and see before the implementation of anti - involution policies. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [32][33]. - For methanol, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is macro - driven [34]. - For PP, the supply - demand pressure is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to downstream demand and macro policies [35][36]. - For PE, the short - term pressure is large, but the downward space is limited. The demand is expected to pick up in the future [37][38][39]. - For PVC, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term as the anti - involution sentiment is unstable [39][40]. - For pure benzene, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term as the market is affected by macro emotions [40][41]. - For styrene, it is recommended to wait and see after the important macro meetings this week due to the expected increase in supply and decrease in demand [43]. - For fuel oil, the short - term drive is downward, and the market remains weak [44]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is recommended to wait and see as the supply is low and the demand is slightly improved [44]. - For asphalt, the short - term price is in a shock pattern, and the peak season is expected in the long term. Pay attention to the implementation of anti - involution policies [44][45]. - For urea, the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [45][46]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to cost fluctuations and policy implementation [46]. - For glass, the market will continue to game between reality and expectations. Pay attention to policy implementation and the approach of the delivery logic [47]. - For logs, the market is expected to have low - volatility shocks in the short term. Pay attention to risk control [47]. - For pulp, pay attention to the adjustment risk. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high after the breakthrough [48]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to the delivery logic of the 09 contract and the pressure on the supply side in the long term [48][49]. - For live pigs, with high supplies, it is recommended to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [50]. - For oilseeds, pay attention to China - US trade negotiations. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant in the short term, and there may be a supply gap after December [51]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1729 at 16:30 yesterday, down 50 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1787 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1467, down 48 basis points [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump said he would never want a weak US dollar, and Powell may be ready to cut interest rates. The European Central Bank is not in a hurry to cut borrowing costs [2]. - **Core Logic**: The independence of the Fed is being challenged. If Powell is removed, it may trigger the depreciation of the US dollar. It is recommended to use options to hedge risks. Without major events, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB will fluctuate between 7.15 - 7.20 [2]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index fluctuated strongly yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 0.21%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 450.29 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: China - US economic and trade talks began in Stockholm. The child - rearing subsidy policy will be implemented from January 1, 2025, with a subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year [3]. - **Core Logic**: The market has digested last week's positive news. The child - rearing subsidy policy is expected to drive the stock index up. The outcome of the China - US talks and the Politburo meeting this week will affect the stock index [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bond futures opened higher, then fell and rose again, closing sharply higher. The central bank net injected 32.51 billion yuan. The capital price improved, with DR001 at around 1.45% and GC001 at around 1.35% [4]. - **Important Information**: A national industrial conference proposed to expand domestic demand and promote industrial development [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: The market is sentiment - driven. Although the bond price has recovered, there are still risks. Pay attention to key events this week [4][5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The precious metal market was weak on Monday. COMEX gold 2508 fell 0.65% to $3,314 per ounce, and silver 2509 fell 0.09% to $38.33 per ounce. The medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish, while the short - term volatility of London gold may increase. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [10][11][12]. - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper index fell slightly on Monday. The short - term price may decline as the anti - involution fever subsides. Pay attention to macro events this week [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina may experience high - volatility trading, and investors can consider inter - month arbitrage; casting aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference changes [13][14]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc main contract fell 1.05% on the previous trading day. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is appropriate to short on rallies [16]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 1.5%, and the stainless steel main contract fell 0.73%. The medium - to - long - term trend is bearish. Focus on the callback of nickel - iron and the recovery of nickel salt demand [17]. - **Tin**: The Shanghai tin index fell slightly on Monday. The short - term price may decline as the anti - involution fever fades. Pay attention to macro events in late July [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures limit - down on Monday. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. Pay attention to the situation of mines and important meetings this week [19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures fell sharply on Monday. The "anti - involution" varieties have corrected. There is support at the bottom. Pay attention to the July meetings [20][21]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead main contract fell 0.24% on the previous trading day. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate. Wait for the peak season and changes in macro and downstream purchasing sentiment [22]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price fell sharply during the day yesterday and stabilized at night. The upward trend may not end. Pay attention to actual demand, tariff policies, and the implementation of anti - involution policies [23]. - **Iron Ore**: The recent price fluctuations are mainly affected by non - fundamental factors. The short - term fundamentals are stable, but the volatility may increase near the meeting [23][24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell sharply. The fourth round of price increases has been implemented. The market may return to rationality, and further upward movement requires super - expected macro policies [25][26][27]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferroalloys rose due to policy expectations and coal - price support. The short - term risk of chasing high is high. Pay attention to the implementation of policy expectations and control risks [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: International crude oil futures rebounded slightly overnight. The price increase was driven by the macro - positive sentiment of the US - EU trade agreement and geopolitical risks [29][30]. - **PX - PTA**: PX - PTA has been oscillating strongly recently. The supply of PX may increase in August. PTA may reduce production to support prices. It is recommended to expand the TA processing fee on dips [30][31]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The price of MEG has been strong recently, and the supply has increased. It is recommended to wait and see before the implementation of anti - involution policies. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [32][33]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is macro - driven, and it is recommended to wait and see [34]. - **PP**: The supply - demand pressure of PP is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to downstream demand and macro policies [35][36]. - **PE**: The short - term pressure of PE is large, but the downward space is limited. The demand is expected to pick up in the future [37][38][39]. - **PVC**: The anti - involution sentiment of PVC is unstable. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [39][40]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply and demand of pure benzene have both increased. The short - term market is affected by macro emotions. It is recommended to wait and see [40][41]. - **Styrene**: The supply of styrene is expected to increase and the demand to decrease in August. The short - term market is affected by macro emotions. It is recommended to wait and see after important macro meetings this week [43]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply of fuel oil has improved, and the demand has rebounded. The short - term drive is downward, and the market remains weak [44]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is low, and the demand is slightly improved. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Asphalt**: The supply of asphalt has decreased slightly, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is in a shock pattern, and the peak season is expected in the long term. Pay attention to the implementation of anti - involution policies [44][45]. - **Urea**: The price of urea has been weak recently. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak. The supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to cost fluctuations and policy implementation [46]. - **Glass**: The supply of glass has slightly increased, and the demand is in a weak balance. The market will continue to game between reality and expectations. Pay attention to policy implementation and the approach of the delivery logic [47]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The futures price of live pigs fell 1.81%. The supply is high, and the demand is general. It is recommended to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [50]. - **Oilseeds**: The price of US soybeans is weak, and the domestic soybean meal price has declined. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant in the short term, and there may be a supply gap after December. Pay attention to China - US trade negotiations [51].

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the July 29, 2025, futures main contract market trends. Index futures will fluctuate and consolidate; ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will probably fluctuate strongly; gold futures will likely fluctuate weakly; some industrial product futures such as copper, aluminum, and silver will fluctuate and consolidate; some futures like alumina, rebar, and hot - rolled coil will likely fluctuate strongly; while futures of coke, glass, and soda ash will probably fluctuate weakly; crude oil futures will likely fluctuate strongly [2][3][4][5]. - The report also provides macro - news, commodity futures information, and analyzes the July 28, 2025, market trends of various futures contracts, including index futures, treasury bond futures, and commodity futures [7][11][13]. Summary by Category Macro - news - National leaders made important instructions on flood prevention and disaster relief work [7]. - Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm, aiming to implement the consensus reached in previous meetings [7]. - The national parenting subsidy system implementation plan was officially announced, with a subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year starting from January 1, 2025 [8]. - Changhe Group in Hong Kong is considering inviting a Chinese strategic investor to participate in the Panama Canal port business transaction, and the Chinese government will regulate it in accordance with the law [8]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized promoting the integration of urban and rural development and protecting the rights of rural migrants [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including promoting consumer goods and emerging industries [9]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation aimed to improve market supervision systems and enhance safety supervision capabilities [9]. - Nine departments jointly issued a plan to rectify heavy - metal environmental safety hazards from 2025 - 2030 [9]. - The State Taxation Administration reported on the investigation of tax evasion cases by online anchors and cases of fraudulent tax incentives [9]. - Thailand and Cambodia reached a cease - fire agreement [10]. - US President Trump mentioned potential tariffs on imports and his stance on Russia - Ukraine relations [10]. - The US Treasury increased the federal borrowing forecast for the quarter [10]. - Although the general framework of the EU - US trade agreement is determined, details remain to be discussed [10]. - The European Central Bank is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs [10]. - The German government will approve the 2026 budget draft with a record 126.7 billion euro investment [11]. Commodity Futures Information - Domestic industrial product futures saw a significant correction, with six main contracts including coke, glass, and soda ash hitting the daily limit down, and over 10 varieties such as alumina and polysilicon falling more than 3%. At night, the black - metal sector generally declined [11]. - The US - EU agreement and OPEC + production increase boosted oil prices, with US crude and Brent crude rising 2.79% and 2.87% respectively [11]. - International precious - metal futures generally closed lower on July 28, affected by the Thailand - Cambodia cease - fire agreement [12]. - Most London base metals closed lower on July 28, influenced by the Fed's policy and Sino - US trade uncertainties [12]. - Oil traders expect OPEC + to approve a significant production increase this weekend [12]. - Saudi Arabia may raise the official selling price of crude oil for Asian buyers for the second consecutive month [12]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated on July 28, and the US dollar index rose [12][13]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On July 28, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures showed different trends, with some rising slightly and some falling slightly. It is expected that on July 29, index futures will fluctuate and consolidate, and in July 2025, they will likely fluctuate strongly [13][14][15][18][19]. Treasury Bond Futures - On July 28, the main contracts of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures rose. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. It is expected that on July 29, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will probably fluctuate strongly [38][40]. Gold Futures - On July 28, the main contract of gold futures fell slightly. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of gold futures will fluctuate widely, and on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [43]. Silver Futures - On July 28, the main contract of silver futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of silver futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [49][50]. Copper Futures - On July 28, the main contract of copper futures fell slightly. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of copper futures will fluctuate widely, and on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [53]. Aluminum Futures - On July 28, the main contract of aluminum futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of aluminum futures will fluctuate widely, and on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [58]. Alumina Futures - On July 28, the main contract of alumina futures fell significantly. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of alumina futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [62]. Industrial Silicon Futures - On July 28, the main contract of industrial silicon futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly and widely [67][68]. Polysilicon Futures - On July 28, the main contract of polysilicon futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate widely [68]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On July 28, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [70]. Rebar Futures - On July 28, the main contract of rebar futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of rebar futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [73]. Hot - rolled Coil Futures - On July 28, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [78]. Iron Ore Futures - On July 28, the main contract of iron ore futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of iron ore futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [80]. Coke Futures - On July 28, the main contract of coke futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [85][86]. Glass Futures - On July 28, the main contract of glass futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [87]. Soda Ash Futures - On July 28, the main contract of soda ash futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [90]. Crude Oil Futures - On July 28, the main contract of crude oil futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of crude oil futures will likely fluctuate strongly and widely, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [92]. PTA Futures - On July 28, the main contract of PTA futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [96]. PVC Futures - On July 28, the main contract of PVC futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [98]. Methanol Futures - On July 28, the main contract of methanol futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [100].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows structural differentiation, with the cyclical sectors cooling down and the non - cyclical sectors showing different performances. Different commodities have different trends and influencing factors, and the market is affected by both domestic and international news, policies, and market sentiment [2][3][8] - For different commodities, specific analysis and operation suggestions are provided based on their fundamentals, including supply, demand, and inventory [13][20][40] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a trend of opening higher, turning down, and then rising. The major indexes generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.96%. The non - bank sector rose, while the cyclical sectors such as coal and shipping fell. Most of the four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis of the main contracts showed seasonal repair [2][3] - **News**: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the EU will increase investment in the US and purchase US military and energy products [3][4] - **Funding**: On July 28, the A - share trading volume decreased slightly, with a total turnover of 1.74 trillion. The central bank conducted 4958 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 3251 billion yuan [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: As the major indexes maintain an upward trend after breaking through the annual high, but approaching the interim report disclosure period, it is necessary to verify the substantial improvement of profits. It is recommended to gradually take profits on the long positions of IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions of MO put options with an exercise price of 6000 in the 08 contract to reduce the position [5] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.56%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.18%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract up 0.04%. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [6] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 4958 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 28, with a net investment of 3251 billion yuan. The money market became looser at the end of the month [6][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: The central bank increased reverse repurchase investment, and the decline in commodity prices improved the bond market sentiment. However, the short - term market may still fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the money market and incremental policies. The 10 - year Treasury bond has certain allocation value. The 2509 - 2512 contract spread may tend to rise in the short term [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: The US and the EU announced a trade agreement, which boosted the US dollar index. Gold prices fell for four consecutive days, with international gold closing at $3314.78 per ounce, down 0.67%. International silver prices were flat at $38.14 per ounce [8][9] - **News**: The US Treasury plans to borrow $1.007 trillion in the third quarter, a significant increase compared to the April forecast. Trump expressed disappointment with Putin and threatened to impose "secondary sanctions" on Russia [8][9] - **Market Outlook**: Before August 1, more countries may reach trade agreements with the US, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is low, which will support the US dollar and suppress gold prices. Gold prices may test the support of the 60 - day moving average. Silver prices are driven by ETF funds, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping - European Routes - **Spot Price**: As of July 28, the prices of major shipping companies were in a certain range. The SCFIS European route index fell 3.5% month - on - month, and the US West route index fell 46.98% month - on - month [11] - **Fundamentals**: As of July 28, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.9% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US in June showed the economic situation [11] - **Market Logic**: The futures market oscillated downward, and the main 10 - contract closed down 1.62%. The uncertainty of prices in August has decreased, and it is expected to show an oscillating trend in the future. Spot prices will not fluctuate significantly in the short term and are expected to decline slowly in the long term [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to short the 08 and 10 contracts on rallies [12] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of July 28, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased, and downstream consumption willingness was low. High copper prices inhibited downstream procurement [13] - **Macro**: The domestic "anti - involution" policy affects copper from both demand and supply aspects, but there is a risk of macro - sentiment ebbing in the short term [13] - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrates may be restricted, and the production of refined copper in June decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to increase in July [14] - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand for copper showed a certain trend. The weekly operating rate of copper rod production decreased, but the terminal demand still had some resilience [15] - **Inventory**: COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories all increased [16] - **Market Logic**: Macro - sentiment may ebb, and the copper market shows a short - term supply - demand double - weak situation. However, domestic policies and low inventories support copper prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the "anti - involution" policy and overseas tariff policies [17] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 78000 - 80000 [17] Alumina - **Spot**: On July 28, the spot prices of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [17] - **Supply**: In June, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the operating capacity increased [18] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, the port inventory and the total registered volume of warehouse receipts increased [18] - **Market Logic**: The futures price fell due to the ebbing of market sentiment. Although the supply of bauxite in Guinea may be tight and the warehouse receipt inventory is low, the increase in production capacity will push up the supply. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish, with the main contract expected to operate between 3000 - 3400 [19] Aluminum - **Spot**: On July 28, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [19] - **Supply**: In June, the production of electrolytic aluminum decreased month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline in July. The operating capacity is expected to remain high [20] - **Demand**: Downstream industries are in the traditional off - season, and the operating rates of various industries are relatively stable or slightly decreased [20] - **Inventory**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas increased, while the inventory in bonded areas decreased. The LME inventory increased [20][21] - **Market Logic**: The "anti - involution" policy sentiment cooled down, and aluminum prices decreased slightly. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the inventory may increase. It is expected to oscillate widely between 20200 - 21000 [21] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On July 28, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased [21] - **Supply**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, but it is expected to decline in July due to the off - season and other factors [22] - **Demand**: The demand in June was under pressure, and the market transaction was sluggish. The downstream maintains a low - inventory procurement strategy [22] - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased, and the inventory in some areas was close to full [22] - **Market Logic**: The price of aluminum alloy decreased slightly, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the demand side being more prominent. It is expected to oscillate weakly between 19600 - 20400 [23] Zinc - **Spot**: On July 28, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the spot transaction was not smooth [23] - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the production growth rate in May and June was lower than expected. The production of refined zinc increased in June and is expected to continue to increase in July [24] - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries are differentiated. The galvanizing industry is relatively stable, while the die - casting and zinc oxide industries are in the off - season [25][26] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [26] - **Market Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the demand is weak, and the inventory may enter the accumulation cycle. It is expected to oscillate between 22000 - 23000 [27] Tin - **Spot**: On July 28, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the market was in a "price but no market" situation [27] - **Supply**: In June, the import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased. The supply of tin ore is currently tight, but Myanmar's production is expected to resume in late August [28] - **Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased in June. The demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries is weak. The LME and domestic inventories increased [28][29] - **Market Logic**: The market sentiment weakened, and tin prices fell from a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to macro - changes and inventory changes after Myanmar's resumption of production [29] Nickel - **Spot**: As of July 28, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [30] - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level and is expected to increase slightly in July [30] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [30] - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory is high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory remained stable [31] - **Market Logic**: The macro - sentiment turned weak, and the nickel market is affected by supply and demand and macro - factors. It is expected to adjust within the range of 120000 - 128000 [32] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of July 28, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends [33] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is loose, and the price of nickel iron is weak and stable. The chromium iron market is stable [33] - **Supply**: The estimated production of stainless steel in July decreased month - on - month [34] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt decreased [34] - **Market Logic**: The stainless steel price oscillated weakly. The macro - sentiment ebbed, the supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate between 12600 - 13200 [35] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of July 28, the spot prices of lithium salts increased, but the futures market limit - down, and the basis narrowed [35] - **Supply**: In June, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and it is expected to continue to increase in July. However, there are some supply disturbances [36] - **Demand**: The demand is relatively stable, with some differentiation among different manufacturers. The demand in July is expected to increase slightly [36] - **Inventory**: The whole - chain inventory is increasing, but the inventory growth rate slowed down last week [37] - **Market Logic**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and news, and the trading core has shifted to the ore end. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [38] Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - **Spot**: Steel prices decreased, and the basis strengthened. The prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils all decreased [40] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of coking coal and iron ore has different trends. The profit of steel mills has increased [40] - **Supply**: The production of molten iron remains high, and the production of steel has changed slightly. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils has different trends [40] - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of five major steel products remains high, and the inventory is stable [41] - **Inventory**: The inventory of major steel products is at a low level and remains stable. The inventory of rebar decreased slightly, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly [41] - **Viewpoint**: Affected by market sentiment, steel prices decreased. The supply and demand are basically balanced, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of 3300 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils [41] Iron Ore - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders decreased [42] - **Futures**: As of July 24, the prices of iron ore futures decreased [42] - **Basis**: The cost of different iron ore warehouse receipts is different, and the basis of different varieties is also different [42] - **Demand**: The daily output of molten iron, blast furnace operating rate, and steel mill profitability are at a relatively high level [42] - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at ports decreased [42] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, the daily port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [44] - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore price oscillated downward. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, but the "anti - involution" speculation may end, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and short on rallies [44] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures limit - down, and some spot prices began to fall. The market sentiment declined [45] - **Supply**: The resumption of coal mine production is slow, and the supply is still tight. The price of imported coking coal decreased [45][47] - **Demand**: The coking plant's production is stable, and the downstream demand for molten iron is high [46][47] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is at a medium level, with the coal mine inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [46][47] - **Viewpoint**: The coking coal futures limit - down due to position - limit intervention. The supply and demand fundamentals are improving, but the previous increase has fully digested the positive factors. It is recommended to conduct hedging operations, be cautious about shorting on rallies, and conduct arbitrage operations [48] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures limit - down, the factory price increased, and the port price decreased. The fourth - round price increase of some coke enterprises has partially landed [49][50] - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke is negative, but there are differences among different regions [49] - **Supply**: The production of coke is difficult to increase due to the slow resumption of coal mine production and enterprise losses [49][50] - **Demand**: The downstream demand for molten iron is high, providing support for coke [50] - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke enterprises and ports decreased, and the steel mill's inventory increased [50] - **Viewpoint**: The coke futures limit - down, and the spot price is expected to increase. It is recommended to be cautious about shorting on rallies and conduct arbitrage operations [50] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased in some regions, and the trading volume increased. The price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the trading volume was 100 tons [51] - **Fundamentals**: The US exported soybeans to Mexico, speculators reduced short positions in soybean meal futures, Argentina reduced export tariffs on agricultural products, and the EU's oilseed imports decreased [52] - **Market Outlook**: US soybeans oscillate at the bottom, and the new crop is expected to be a bumper harvest, suppressing the price. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [52][53] Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs oscillated weakly, with different trends in different regions [54] - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising sows and the profit of

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; due to the strong US economy and industrial silver's long - term downward trend, it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies [1]. - For aluminum, although industry policies are favorable, the price increase is limited in the off - season, and the price may fluctuate, so it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - Alumina's operating capacity is increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, so it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - For zinc, due to supply pressure and weak consumption in the off - season, it is recommended to short on rallies [2][3]. - For lead, it is recommended to operate within a range and go short - term long on pullbacks [3]. - For industrial silicon, the market may turn to wide - range fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For lithium carbonate, the price is expected to fluctuate widely between 65,000 - 80,000, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [3]. - For polysilicon, the market may fluctuate widely between 48,000 - 53,000, and it is advisable to wait and see [3][4]. - For steel products, it is recommended to take profits on long positions and short the RB2601 contract for aggressive investors [4]. - For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see and take profits on long positions [4]. - For coking coal, it is advisable to wait and see and exit long positions [4]. - For soybean meal, the US soybeans are in a volatile range, and it is necessary to focus on Sino - US economic and trade talks,产区 weather, and tariff policies [5]. - For corn, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - For sugar, it is recommended to short on rallies in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - For cotton, it is advisable to wait and see and adopt a range - trading strategy between 13,800 - 14,400 [6]. - For logs, it is advisable to wait and see [6]. - For palm oil, it is short - term strong, and it is recommended to allocate more in the sector, focusing on产区 production and biodiesel policies [6]. - For eggs, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [6][7]. - For live pigs, the futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [7]. - For LLDPE, it may fluctuate in the short term and is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term [8]. - For PVC, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - For PTA, it is recommended to take profits on PX and short on rallies for PTA [8]. - For rubber, it is expected to fluctuate in a range, and it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - For glass, it is recommended to go long on dips [9]. - For PP, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term and is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term [9]. - For MEG, it is recommended to short when the supply - demand is weak [9]. - For crude oil, due to the uncertainty of US sanctions on Russia, it is advisable to wait and see [9][10]. - For styrene, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term and is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term [10]. - For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling call options [10]. 3. Summaries According to Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, precious metal prices weakened, with both gold and silver falling. The US dollar index rose by more than 1% during the session [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The EU - US trade agreement is seen as beneficial to the US, the US Treasury plans to borrow nearly $1.01 trillion in the third quarter, and the auction of 5 - year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak. Gold ETFs in China had outflows, and inventories of gold and silver in various exchanges increased [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on gold and short - sell on rallies for precious metals [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2509 contract decreased by 0.70% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, but the off - season leads to a slight decline in the operating rate of aluminum products [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see due to limited price increase space [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 5.40% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is increasing, and electrolytic aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see as the price may fluctuate weakly [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the zinc 2508 contract decreased by 1.01% compared to the previous trading day, and the social inventory increased [2][3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure persists, and consumption is weak in the off - season, with an increasing risk of a short squeeze [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the lead 2508 contract decreased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and the social inventory increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is tight in some areas, and consumption has low - level resilience, with tightened spot liquidity [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Operate within a range and go short - term long on pullbacks [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at the limit - down price, with a decrease in positions and an increase in warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased last week, and demand was mixed [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see as the market may fluctuate widely [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract decreased by 7.98%, with capital outflows [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased slightly, demand improved marginally, and inventory reached a new high [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Participate cautiously as the price may fluctuate widely [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract decreased, with a decrease in positions and stable warehouse receipts [3][4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, and demand was weak [3][4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see as the market may fluctuate widely [3][4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main contract of rebar fluctuated sideways [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Building material inventory increased slightly, and the overall supply - demand of steel products was balanced with structural differentiation [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Take profits on long positions and short the RB2601 contract for aggressive investors [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main contract of iron ore fluctuated sideways [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, demand was stable, and the supply - demand was neutral to strong [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see and take profits on long positions [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main contract of coking coal fell to the limit and continued to decline at night [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand was relatively loose but improving, and the futures was over - valued [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see and exit long positions [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans fell [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was loose both in the near - term and long - term, and demand was uncertain [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Focus on Sino - US economic and trade talks, and follow the international cost in the medium - term [5]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract was weak, and the spot price fluctuated [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was tight, but substitutes and imports affected the price [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The futures price may fluctuate weakly [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract rose slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International supply pressure and domestic macro - sentiment affected the price [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short on rallies in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: US cotton futures were weak, and domestic cotton futures were strong [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International supply and demand and domestic downstream conditions were mixed [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see and trade within a range [6]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract rose slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Market activity increased, but the price was mainly affected by macro - factors [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased seasonally, and demand decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Strong in the short - term, allocate more in the sector [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract and the spot price fell [6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased, and demand may increase seasonally, but cold - storage eggs limited the increase [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The futures price may fluctuate [6][7]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract and the spot price fell [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Consumption was weak seasonally, and supply pressure increased [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The futures price may fluctuate and adjust [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, and the import window was closed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand improved slightly in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fluctuate in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V09 contract fell by 1.4% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply will increase, and inventory accumulated [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX and PTA prices were at certain levels, and the spot basis was - 7 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure was high, and polyester demand was weak [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Take profits on PX and short on rallies for PTA [8]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell by 2.52% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Inventory increased, and downstream factories replenished stocks [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fluctuate in a range, wait and see [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg09 contract fell by 5% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase, inventory decreased, and demand improved [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on dips [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand was differentiated [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fluctuate weakly in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price and basis were at certain levels [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was high, and demand was weak [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short when the supply - demand is weak [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The price rose sharply due to supply risks [9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC's decision was pending, and US demand was mixed [9][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see due to sanction uncertainties [9][10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, and the import window was closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase, and demand was under pressure [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fluctuate weakly in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract fell by 4% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased slightly, inventory was redistributed, and demand was uncertain [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see or short - sell call options [10].

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投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-29 经贸不确定性驱动减弱，关注本周劳动 ⼒市场数据 美欧谈判结果的落地仍⽀撑市场⻛险偏好，市场对中美谈判的预期偏乐 观，经贸不确定性短期的下降对⻩⾦形成压制。本周美国⾮农数据及7⽉ 降息会议上美联储的表达较为重要。⽉度级别来看，后续重点关注8⽉全 球央⾏年会，若配合美联储换届扰动，或带来波动弹性放⼤。中期基于看 多⻩⾦的前提，维持对⽩银趋势看多。从弹性视⻆来看，⻩⾦在3500美元 受阻的背景下，⽩银于40美元处明显承压，突破预计需要⾦价配合。 重点资讯： 1）美国总统特朗普宣布与欧盟达成贸易框架协议，并特别强调该协 议对汽车产业"意义重大"。根据协议内容，美方将对大部分欧盟商 品征收15%的统一关税，较此前威胁的30%大幅下调，也几乎减半了此 前针对欧洲汽车行业高达27.5%的关税水平。总统特朗普表示，全球 关税幅度将在15%至20%之间。美国将生产自己的钢铁和铝。 2）美国总统特朗普谈美联储：即便不降息，美国的经济表现也不 错；降息之后情况会更好；聪明人会降息；认为本周必须降息。 宏观研究团队 研究员： 3）中美两 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns an overall "oscillating" rating to the black building materials sector [6][8][9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the black market rose to a high level driven by macro factors, the market became extremely sensitive. Following the exchange's position - limit notice last Friday, the market sentiment took a sharp turn overnight, with coking coal hitting the daily limit. As the outcome of important meetings remains uncertain, funds tend to take a risk - averse approach. The fundamental situation in the industry has changed little, and no obvious turnaround has been observed in the terminal sector. After a large - scale replenishment in the middle reaches, a continuous price decline may lead to significant sales by traders, amplifying the bearish sentiment. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and in the long term, the overall trading should be bearish as the focus returns to the fundamentals [1][2] - The volatility of the black market has increased recently, and there may still be macro - level disturbances in the future. The key factors to watch are the implementation of policies and the performance of terminal demand [6] Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased on a month - on - month basis, while the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased as expected. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased significantly, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting the demand for iron ore. Due to low arrivals and high demand, the inventory at 45 ports of iron ore has slightly decreased. With high demand and stable supply, there is limited bearish driving force in the fundamentals of iron ore. However, as the short - term macro - level positive factors have been mostly priced in, the price is expected to oscillate [2] Carbon Element - After the exchange adjusted the trading limit of the JM2509 contract last Friday, the market sentiment quickly cooled down, and the coking coal futures hit the daily limit across the board. There are still disruptions in production at the origin, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal has been above 1,000 trucks in recent days, remaining at a high level. Affected by the sharp decline in the futures market, the downstream and traders have become more cautious, and the auction results have been mediocre. After three rounds of price increases for coke, the coking profit is still under pressure. Coke producers in the main producing areas initiated a fourth - round price increase over the weekend. Given the current tight supply - demand structure of coke and the pressure on coking profit, the fourth - round price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [3] Alloys - Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the manganese - silicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, there is strong wait - and - see sentiment at the beginning of the week. With the futures market remaining at a high level, the spot prices remain firm. As coke enters the price - increase cycle, the cost support for manganese - silicon is continuously strengthening. Manganese ore traders at ports are more inclined to hold prices, and low - priced supplies are scarce, with the ore prices remaining stable overall. The output of ferrosilicon is expected to increase rapidly, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector [3][6] Glass - After the glass futures hit the daily limit, the market sentiment weakened rapidly, and the production - sales ratio dropped significantly. On the supply side, there are still two production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line has been shut down for cold repair. The overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and there are no prominent internal contradictions, but there are many market - sentiment disturbances. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. However, as the Politburo meeting is approaching, the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate. In the short term, both the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely. The long - term over - supply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the rising "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price. After the positive feedback, the inventory locked in the positive spread is large, and the delivery pressure is high. In the short term, it is easy to rise but difficult to fall, while in the long term, the price center will still decline [6] Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: After the exchange adjusted the coking coal trading limit, the market sentiment cooled down, and the futures prices fell from a high level. The spot trading volume of steel was generally weak, with only a small amount of speculative and rigid - demand purchases at low prices. Last week, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory decreased on a month - on - month basis; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory slightly accumulated; the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and the inventory slightly decreased. The inventory is at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the fundamental contradictions in the off - season are not obvious. In the future, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation for steel, but due to the low inventory level, the fundamental pressure is limited. The futures prices are easily affected by market sentiment and are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [8] - **Iron Ore**: The arrivals at ports have decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The overseas mine shipments have increased on a month - on - month basis, while the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased as expected. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased significantly, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting the demand for iron ore. With high demand and stable supply, there is limited bearish driving force in the fundamentals of iron ore. However, as the short - term macro - level positive factors have been mostly priced in, the price is expected to oscillate [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume has significantly increased, and the spot price has risen. The fundamentals of scrap steel are acceptable, with an increase in rebar production, a decrease in inventory, and an increase in apparent demand this week. On the supply side, the arrival volume has increased significantly. On the demand side, the profits of electric arc furnaces during off - peak hours have improved, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process steelmaking has increased. The inventory in steel mills has slightly decreased. The demand for scrap steel is at a high level, and there are no prominent fundamental contradictions. After Shagang raised its price, the spot price has followed suit. However, as the steel price has declined, scrap steel itself lacks upward - driving force and is expected to oscillate [9] - **Coke**: The spot market has initiated a fourth - round price increase, and the futures followed coking coal to hit the daily limit. After three rounds of price increases, the coking profit is still under pressure, and coke producers in the main producing areas initiated a fourth - round price increase over the weekend. Meanwhile, the supply of coke is still affected by environmental protection and maintenance. On the demand side, although the molten iron output has slightly decreased on a month - on - month basis, it remains at a high level, and there is still rigid demand. The downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing inventory. The inventory of coke producers has continuously decreased. The current supply - demand structure of coke is tight, and the fourth - round price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [10] - **Coking Coal**: There are continuous disturbances in coal mine supply, and the market enthusiasm remains high. In the futures market, there are strong expectations for the coal supply - side reform, and the positive market sentiment persists. In the spot market, the prices of coking coal have increased. On the supply side, there are still disruptions in production at the origin, and the supply is still restricted. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal has been around 1,000 trucks in recent days, and the port transactions are good. On the demand side, the coke output is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Recently, downstream enterprises and traders have been actively purchasing, resulting in a significant reduction in coal mine inventory. Currently, the fundamental supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and the key factors to watch are regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports. In the short term, coking coal still has upward potential due to market sentiment [11] - **Glass**: The speculative sentiment has declined, and the inventory in the middle reaches has significantly increased. The demand in the off - season has decreased, and the orders of deep - processing enterprises have declined on a month - on - month basis. After the futures hit the daily limit, the market sentiment weakened rapidly, and the production - sales ratio dropped significantly. On the supply side, the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and there are no prominent internal contradictions, but there are many market - sentiment disturbances. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. However, as the Politburo meeting is approaching, the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate. In the short term, both the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely. In the long term, if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13] - **Soda Ash**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the futures and spot prices have rapidly declined. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term pressure. Although the production has decreased due to a pipeline problem at Jinshan No. 3 Plant today, the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain at a rigid - purchase level, and the demand has weakened. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has recovered, but the overall demand in the downstream is poor, mainly for periodic inventory replenishment. The long - term over - supply situation is difficult to change. In the short term, the rising "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price. After the positive feedback, the inventory in the middle reaches is high, and most of it is locked in the futures market, resulting in large delivery pressure. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and with the support of the "anti - involution" sentiment, it is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, while in the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [14] - **Silicon Manganese**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated. Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the manganese - silicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, there is strong wait - and - see sentiment at the beginning of the week. With the futures market remaining at a high level, the spot prices remain firm. As coke enters the price - increase cycle, the cost support for manganese - silicon is continuously strengthening. Manganese ore traders at ports are more inclined to hold prices, and low - priced supplies are scarce, with the ore prices remaining stable overall. The downstream demand for manganese - silicon remains resilient, but as the profit - repair environment promotes the resumption of production by manufacturers, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector, and the upside potential in the long term should be viewed with caution [16] - **Ferrosilicon**: The bullish sentiment has cooled down, and the futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated. Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the ferrosilicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, the overall sentiment is acceptable, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. On the supply side, the industry's profit has improved significantly, and manufacturers are more motivated to resume production, so the output is expected to increase rapidly. On the demand side, the steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector. However, the supply - demand gap may narrow in the future, and the upside potential in the long term should be viewed with caution [17]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 黄金 1、基本面：市场等待贸易协定最终日，金价震荡回落；美国三大股指收盘涨跌不 一，欧洲主要股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率跌0.99 个基点报4.388%；美元指数涨1.02%报98.66，离岸人民币对美元贬值报7.1835； COMEX黄金期货跌0.65%报3314.00美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注中美经贸会谈、欧央行CPI预期、美国6月职位空缺、6月房价指 数。美欧贸易协定达成，但协定内容不及预期乐观，国内商品情绪大幅降温，金价 震荡。沪金溢价扩大至1.4元/克。关注本周贸易协定进展，降息预期依旧高涨，金 价震荡。 2、基差：黄金期货774.78，现货771.58，基差- ...