2025年06月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：驱动暂时不强，区间震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：中美会谈希望美豆微涨，连粕偏强震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：移仓换月、周边市场偏强，盘面反弹 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 8 | | 棉花：继续受市场情绪影响 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：梅雨季利空释放，等待淘鸡印证 | 11 | | 生猪：降重初启动，等待现货印证 | 12 | | 花生：关注现货 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 11 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底 豆油：驱动暂时不强，区间震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,116 | 涨跌幅 -0.81% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,086 | 涨跌幅 -0.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a slight increase, currently around $3333 per ounce, after a significant drop of about $30 from a high of $3350 per ounce due to optimistic investor sentiment regarding US-China trade negotiations [1] - On June 10, gold reached an intraday high of $3349.20 per ounce before falling to approximately $3319 per ounce, closing at $3322.49 per ounce, reflecting a daily decline of 0.1% [1] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with economists predicting a slight increase in core CPI to 2.9%, which may impact inflation expectations and subsequently gold prices [2] Group 2: Trade Negotiations Impact - US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross indicated that trade negotiations between the US and China are progressing "very, very smoothly," with hopes for a conclusion by the end of the day [1] - US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin described the negotiations as "productive," highlighting the importance of these discussions for market sentiment [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Gold's Appeal - The World Bank has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3%, citing trade barriers and tariff increases as potential risks to global trade, which enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3] - The current geopolitical risks and economic slowdown are contributing to the attractiveness of gold as a store of value, as noted by High Ridge Futures' David Meger [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices are finding support near the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3302 per ounce, with a need to break above $3350 per ounce to shift to a bullish outlook [4] - The relative strength index (RSI) is stable around 52, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum, while the 200-period SMA at $3300 provides additional support [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel and stainless - steel: The reality supports and weak expectations of nickel prices are in a game, and nickel prices fluctuate. For stainless - steel, negative feedback leads to an increase in production cuts, and steel prices fluctuate within a range. The short - term stainless - steel is in low - level shock, and the medium - term pressure alleviation depends on production cut trends. If the production cuts in June are fulfilled, the excess pressure may ease in the medium term, and there may be a repair opportunity for steel prices in the third quarter, but a significant repair is difficult [8][37]. - Zinc: In the medium term, it remains bearish, and the long - domestic and short - foreign arbitrage position can be held. The logic that the increase in zinc ore supply is transmitted to the smelting end, increasing the supply pressure, still applies. With the end of refinery maintenance and the entry of the demand side into the off - season, the price is weak. In the short term, the price may decline slightly, and the decline will be more fluent as the off - season deepens [10]. - Other commodities: Gold shows that non - farm payrolls slightly exceed expectations; silver has a technical breakthrough; for copper, inventory reduction supports the price; aluminum fluctuates in a range; alumina declines slightly; lead has weak supply and demand and fluctuates in a range; tin stops falling and rebounds; lithium carbonate has differences between bulls and bears and may still face pressure above; industrial silicon's disk fluctuates depending on market sentiment; polysilicon is recommended for short - position allocation considering SNEC conference information; for iron ore, expectations are repeated and it fluctuates in a range; rebar and hot - rolled coil are in low - level shock; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate in a wide range; coke fluctuates in a wide range, and coking coal has stricter safety inspections and fluctuates in a wide range; thermal coal demand awaits release and it fluctuates in a wide range; logs fluctuate repeatedly [12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Readings - **Stainless - steel**: Short - term low - level shock, medium - term pressure alleviation requires attention to production cut trends. In June, Chinese stainless - steel production is 3.239 million tons, with a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 1% and 5% respectively, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate drops to 4%. In June, Indonesian stainless - steel production is 360,000 tons, with a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 9% and 0% respectively, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate drops to - 2% [8]. - **Zinc**: Medium - term bearish, long - domestic and short - foreign arbitrage position can be held. The increase in zinc ore supply is transmitted to the smelting end, increasing supply pressure, while demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak [10]. 3.2 Gold and Silver - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of gold and silver futures and spot, as well as exchange rate data. The trend intensity of both gold and silver is 0, indicating a neutral view [17][19]. - **News**: Include news such as the US approaching an agreement to partially exempt steel tariffs on Mexico, Trump's remarks on the Los Angeles riot, the US "stablecoin bill" voting, and the UK's employment situation [17][20]. 3.3 Copper - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of copper futures and spot. The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral view [21][23]. - **News**: The US - China negotiation is reported to be "progressing smoothly", and some copper mines have production suspension situations due to mechanical failures, wildfires, etc. China's copper ore imports increase, while un - wrought copper and copper product imports decrease [21][23]. 3.4 Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of aluminum and alumina futures and spot, as well as cost and profit data. The trend intensity of both aluminum and alumina is 0, indicating a neutral view [24][26]. - **News**: The US Treasury Secretary is considered a candidate for the next Fed Chairman [24][26]. 3.5 Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of zinc futures and spot. The trend intensity of zinc is - 1, indicating a bearish view [27][28]. - **News**: The situation in Los Angeles is turbulent, and California sues the Trump administration [28]. 3.6 Lead - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of lead futures and spot. The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral view [30][31]. - **News**: Similar to zinc, related to the Los Angeles situation [31]. 3.7 Tin - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of tin futures and spot. The trend intensity of tin is 1, indicating a bullish view [34][36]. - **News**: Similar to gold and silver, including news about the US, UK, etc [34][35]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless - steel - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, and cost - profit data of nickel and stainless - steel futures and spot. The trend intensity of both nickel and stainless - steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [37]. - **News**: Include events such as Canada's potential nickel export suspension, Indonesia's nickel project production, and the Philippines' discussion of a nickel export ban [37][40]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of lithium carbonate futures and spot, as well as raw material price data. The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [43][45]. - **News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate index rises, and China's export of equipment manufacturing products increases [44]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, cost - profit data of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot, as well as related product price data in the photovoltaic industry. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is - 2, indicating bearish views [47][49]. - **News**: A photovoltaic project of Longi Green Energy has an environmental impact assessment report [47]. 3.11 Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, and spread data of iron ore futures and spot. The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [50]. - **News**: China's May CPI decreases year - on - year, and PPI decreases month - on - month [50]. 3.12 Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, and spread data of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot. The trend intensity of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [52][54]. - **News**: China's steel exports increase, imports decrease, and steel production and inventory data change [53][54]. 3.13 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, and spread data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot. The trend intensity of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [56][58]. - **News**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions change, and some steel mills have procurement prices and production adjustment plans [57]. 3.14 Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, and spread data of coke and coking coal futures and spot. The trend intensity of coke is - 1, and that of coking coal is 1, indicating bearish and bullish views respectively [60][63]. - **News**: Provide port prices and index data of coking coal, and information on the long and short positions of futures contracts [60][62]. 3.15 Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, and inventory data of thermal coal. The trend intensity of thermal coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [66][68]. - **News**: Provide port and origin prices of thermal coal, and information on the long and short positions of futures contracts [67]. 3.16 Logs - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, and spread data of log futures and spot. The trend intensity of logs is 1, indicating a bullish view [71][73]. - **News**: China's May CPI decreases year - on - year, and PPI decreases month - on - month [73].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 11 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

2025年06月11日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2507 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.23%，收于 19980 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 325 元/吨， | | | | | LME 价格 2476.5 美元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 铝 | 交易策略：氧化铝价格下行，利润向电解铝端转移，供应或维持高负荷生产，而下游消费处于淡季，部分板 | | | | | 块开工率持续下滑。但低库存提供下方支撑，预计价格维持震荡走势。 | | | | | 操作建议：观望。 | | | | | 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 | | | | | 市场表现：昨日氧化铝 2509 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.21%，收于 2886 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 367 元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，复产产能和新增产能持续释放，运行产能增加。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产， | ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the upcoming US CPI data, with gold prices experiencing fluctuations and adjustments while maintaining a bullish outlook for the year [1][4][9]. Market Performance - On June 10, gold opened at $3325.40 per ounce, reached a low of $3301.75, and later peaked at $3348.78 before closing at $3322.33, reflecting a daily fluctuation of $47.03 and a slight decline of 0.092% [1]. - The market sentiment is cautious, influenced by strong US non-farm payroll data, which has bolstered the dollar and pressured gold prices [4][8]. Economic Indicators - The US CPI data is anticipated to rise, which may reduce interest rate cut expectations, potentially leading to a temporary decline in gold prices. However, this could also enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [6][9]. - Current market conditions reflect a strong expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability close to 60% [9]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently in a bullish trend, supported by the upward trend line established since March, despite recent volatility [11][15]. - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend, while the weekly chart shows potential support at the middle band [13][15]. Future Outlook - The overall outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations of reaching $3500 or higher within the year, despite short-term fluctuations [6][9][15]. - The market is advised to look for buying opportunities during pullbacks, as the long-term trend remains bullish [11][15].

Market Performance - The US stock market continues its strong upward trend, with all three major indices reaching new highs [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 443.13 points, an increase of 1.05%, closing at 42,762.87 points [3] - The Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 1.20%, closing at 19,529.95 points, while the S&P 500 Index rose by 1.03%, closing above the key 6,000-point mark at 6,000.36 points [3] - For the week, the S&P 500 Index gained 1.5%, the Dow Jones Index rose by 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Index saw a 2.2% increase [3] Employment Data - The employment report for May exceeded market expectations, with 139,000 new jobs added, surpassing the forecast of 125,000 [4] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, alleviating concerns about economic slowdown amid trade policy uncertainties [4] Trade Negotiations - The progress of US-China trade negotiations is a focal point for the market, with investors cautiously optimistic about reaching a trade agreement [4] - Technology stocks performed well, with Apple shares rising by 1.6% and Tesla shares rebounding by 3.8% [4] Technology Stocks - Other major tech stocks also showed strong performance, with Google up by 3.2%, Amazon by 2.7%, Meta by 1.9%, Nvidia by 1.2%, and Microsoft by 0.6%, continuing to set closing historical highs [5] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight decline of 0.1%, indicating relatively stable performance for Chinese concept stocks [5] Commodity Market - In the international commodity market, oil prices rebounded due to ongoing wildfires in Alberta, Canada, affecting energy prices [5] - WTI crude oil for the nearest month rose by 1.91%, closing at $64.58 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.13%, closing at $66.47 per barrel [5] Gold Prices - International gold prices faced downward pressure, with three-month gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange dropping by 1.3% to $3,330.70 per ounce [6] - A stronger US dollar has exerted pressure on precious metal prices [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. and India are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of the month, while the U.S. and Mexico are nearing an agreement on steel import tariffs [12] - The European Union proposed to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $45, with Putin announcing an extension of countermeasures [12] - The U.K. is fully pricing in two interest rate cuts by the Bank of England within the year due to a significant drop in employment numbers [12] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices close higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.25%, S&P 500 up 0.55%, and Nasdaq up 0.6% [4] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index opened high but closed down 0.08%, with significant movements in sectors like aviation and rare earths [5] - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.40% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.86%, amid a chaotic market environment [6] Group 3 - The price of spot gold closed at $3322.6 per ounce, down 0.09%, while spot silver closed at $36.53 per ounce, down 0.63% [7] - WTI crude oil closed at $64.47 per barrel, down 0.14%, and Brent crude oil closed at $66.72 per barrel, down 0.09% [7]

黄金涨幅受限，市场静待中美贸易谈判结果？金十研究员高阳正在直播分析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses a significant market pullback that occurred in the afternoon without any apparent negative news, indicating potential underlying issues [3][4] - The pullback in the Chinese market was mirrored by a larger decline in the Hong Kong market, and global markets, including Europe and the US, also experienced downturns [3] - The timing of the market movement coincided with the upcoming US-China trade negotiations, suggesting that comments from President Trump about the difficulty of the negotiations may have influenced market sentiment [3][4] Group 2 - The article suggests that despite the pullback, the negotiations between the US and China are serious and both sides are aware of each other's positions, indicating a pragmatic approach [4] - The US is under significant internal and external pressure, necessitating positive news to alleviate market stress, particularly concerning US debt and domestic stability [4]