1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the recent adjustment, the allocation value of bonds has started to emerge, and the attractiveness of 30 - year treasury bonds to allocation - type institutions has increased. The market will focus on key events such as the Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau Meeting in December, which may provide new directional guidance. In the short - term, the pattern of a capped and floored bond market is difficult to break, and the yield of 10 - year bonds may remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. If the expectation of interest rate cuts in early next year is strengthened, the bond market is expected to rise [8]. - In the medium - to - long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge in China's economic development. In the new normal stage where the marginal benefits of land finance and debt - driven economic growth decline, the asset - liability tables of residents and enterprises are impacted, and new economic growth drivers are still being cultivated. With the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to recover fundamentally in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. The coordinated strengthening of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, and a low - interest - rate environment are crucial for policy implementation, making it difficult for bond yields to rise significantly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Last week, the performance of treasury bond futures across different maturities was divergent. Ultra - long - term treasury bond futures tumbled, while other maturities weakened slightly, and the long - term trend did not show an obvious inflection point. Negative factors such as the new regulations on public fund sales, year - end policy expectations, central bank bond - buying scale, and regulatory investigations led to concentrated profit - taking and early liquidation, increasing market volatility, especially in the more speculative maturities. The main institutional holders of ultra - long - term treasury bonds had insufficient buying willingness or limited capabilities. On Friday, ultra - long - term bonds stabilized slightly but had weak rebound momentum [4]. - The table shows the closing price, weekly change rate, weekly trading volume, change in weekly trading volume, weekly open interest, and change in weekly open interest of various treasury bond futures contracts [5]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data on open - market operations (quantity and price), medium - term lending facility (quantity and price), reverse repurchase rate, and various interest rates such as deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, and bond - pledged repurchase rates, as well as data on MLF maturity volume, policy rates, and market rates, and also shows the trends of treasury bond yields, treasury bond term spreads, US treasury bond yields, and US treasury bond term spreads [10][12][18][29][34][37] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts [44][52][59][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in an oscillating range, waiting for a driver to break through the position. The iron ore futures price has dropped as expected, and the coking coal futures price has broken through the position and hit a new low. It is necessary to pay attention to the guidance of important meetings in December [3]. - The steel market is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, etc. Currently, the supply - demand structure is relatively balanced in the short term, but there are structural differentiations and regional contradictions. The coking coal and coke market is affected by downstream demand and supply - side factors, with prices under pressure [5][69]. - The iron ore market is expected to see continued inventory accumulation due to weakening demand and stable supply, and the price is difficult to break through the upward range [118]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: The molten iron output continued to decline, with a decrease of 2.38 to 232.3wt in the current week. The daily consumption of scrap steel decreased slightly month - on - month, and was lower than the level in 2023. After entering December, the production profit of steel mills improved slightly compared with November [5]. - **Demand**: From the perspective of industrial data, the supply - demand structure is statically balanced, and dynamically shows a trend of weakening supply and demand, with the decline in supply greater than that in demand. From the perspective of market perception, the demand is basically around the rigid - demand level, and speculative demand is light. The demand for medium - plate is stable, the cold - rolled demand has slightly improved, the apparent demand for building materials has shown a seasonal decline, and the inventory - to - sales ratios of hot - rolled and cold - rolled products are under great pressure [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products is still steadily decreasing, which may be mainly due to the stable decline in steel production. The inventory - to - sales ratios of rebar and wire rod have changed from improvement to stability, while those of hot - rolled and cold - rolled products are under great pressure, and the medium - plate inventory is healthy [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils has slightly declined. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 93, and the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 20 [5]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills has slightly rebounded, but the profitability level is still low. The profitability rate of steel mills is 36.36%, with a week - on - week change of + 1.3% [5]. - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar, which is more suitable for cash - and - carry arbitrage. From an industrial perspective, the production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is neutral [5]. - **Macro and Risk Preference**: This week is important and will be a key week for the macro - trading expectations of December. There will be a game on the new round of interest - rate cut expectations in the United States, and important domestic meetings such as the Central Economic Work Conference and a Politburo meeting at the end of the year [5]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude. In the short term, the market is in an oscillating range. It is necessary to wait for the implementation of the production - reduction logic and then observe the start of the winter - storage replenishment drive. It is advisable to focus on the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of hot - rolled coils [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Arbitrage: None for now. Cash - and - carry: Pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of hot - rolled coils [6]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The supply and demand of steel have both declined. This week, the apparent demand for five major steel products is 864.17 (- 23.83), and the output is 828.95 (- 26.76). The demand shows a seasonal performance, the supply is declining rapidly, and the inventory is being depleted quickly, but the absolute inventory value is high, and the industrial contradictions are not prominent. The profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded month - on - month, and the molten iron output has continued to decline. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills this week is 232.30 (- 2.38), and the profitability rate of steel mills is 36.36% (+ 1.30%) [69]. - **Supply of Coking Coal**: The domestic coal - mine production maintains a low level, and large mines still have the intention to reduce production in the later period. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains high, and the inventory in the supervision area has continued to accumulate and is close to 3 million tons. The quotation of overseas coal has continued to rise. As of December 4, the CFR quotation of Australian Peak Downs coal is 221.45 US dollars (+ 5.6), and the CFR quotation of first - line prime coking coal is 205.5 US dollars (+ 0.5) [69]. - **Supply of Coke**: The supply of coke has rebounded. This week, the daily average coke output is 111.1 (+ 1.1), the coking profit is 30 (- 17). The price - reduction rhythm is slow, the price of raw coal has fallen in advance, the coking profit remains at a good level, and the supply of coke has continued to recover rapidly [69]. - **Inventory**: The middle and lower reaches have continued to slow down their procurement, and the upstream has continued to accumulate inventory. The total inventory has continued to increase, and the corresponding price has been under downward pressure [69]. - **Basis/Spread**: The first - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and the market still has expectations for subsequent price cuts. After the implementation, the warehouse - receipt cost is 1700, the port trade quotation has fallen in advance, and the converted warehouse - receipt cost is 1600. The futures price around 1550 reflects the expectation of four - round price cuts. The warehouse - receipt cost of Mongolian coal is around 1100, but several near - month contracts are affected by the difficulty of handling long - position deliveries, and are basically below 1000 near the delivery time [69]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 36.36% (+ 1.30%), and the coking profit is 30 (- 17) [69]. - **Summary**: The Black Chain Index rose first and then fell this week. By Friday, the downward pressure on commodities increased, and many varieties began to accelerate their decline. The coking coal futures broke through the position at night and hit a new low. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of steel have both declined, the inventory is being depleted quickly, but the industrial contradictions are not prominent. Coking coal prices have continued to weaken due to the slowdown in downstream replenishment. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and it is not recommended to chase short positions even if the position is broken [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [69]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The current shipment volume has rebounded by 21.1 tons per day to 4.67 million tons per day month - on - month. Among them, the shipment volume from Australia has rebounded by 38.4 tons per day, that from Brazil has declined by 34.1 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream mines has rebounded by 16.4 tons per day to 1.024 million tons per day. The arrival volume in China has rebounded by 31.4 tons per day, with the arrival volume from Australia increasing by 21.2 tons per day, that from Brazil increasing by 6.6 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream sources increasing by 3.6 tons per day [118]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of steel mills has slightly declined to 2.323 million tons (- 2.38). The main reason for the weakening demand is the maintenance of steel mills. The profit ratio of steel mills has slightly rebounded, but has declined by 1.3% month - on - month to 36.36%. The port inventory has increased by 898,900 tons and exceeded the level of the same period last year. The output of five major steel products has significantly declined, mainly due to rebar. Rebar still maintains a rhythm of low output, low apparent demand, and slight inventory depletion. The output of hot - rolled coils has slightly declined, and the inventory is stable, but the slope has weakened, and the overall inventory far exceeds the seasonal level [118]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 47 ports has increased by 898,900 tons month - on - month. Under the situation of stable supply and weakening demand, the inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [118]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills has continued to decline, which has begun to gradually affect the molten iron output [118]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral. After oscillating at the upper edge of the range, the iron ore price has declined. Fundamentally, the short - term arrival volume of iron ore has rebounded, and the subsequent shipment volume will remain stable, with no major unexpected fluctuations. In the medium term, the inventory will continue to accumulate under the pressure of molten iron production [118]. - **Summary**: It is expected that the subsequent fluctuations will mainly come from the production reduction of steel mills due to the decline in the profitability rate of steel mills. Under the influence of supply and demand, the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise. Under the inventory pressure, it is difficult for the iron ore price to break through the upward range, and the previous short positions can be held [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions. Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [118].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that institutions are optimistic about an early "spring rally" in the market, with growth and cyclical sectors being high-probability investment styles [1] - Huaxi Securities notes that the recent decrease in A-share trading volume and low implied volatility in options indicate that the market is awaiting new guiding themes, with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference potentially serving as a key policy window for the year-end rally [1] - Huatai Securities highlights that improved liquidity conditions, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and enhanced domestic fundamental pricing, could support the market, with a narrowing outflow of foreign capital and a recovery in ETF issuance and subscriptions [1] Group 2 - Guolian Minsheng Securities reports that major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alibaba have shown over 20% growth in cloud revenue in their Q3 earnings, indicating a positive outlook for AI-related sectors, which still have a safety margin in market performance [2] - Huaxia Fund's quantitative investment department sees opportunities for left-side positioning in Hong Kong tech stocks, noting that the Hang Seng Tech Index typically performs well in the first quarter [2] - The valuation of the Hong Kong TMT sector is significantly lower compared to A-shares, with a current PE ratio of 26.2, which is at the 40th percentile of the past decade, suggesting potential for long-term value re-evaluation [2] Group 3 - Relevant ETFs include the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF, both of which are heavily weighted in software services, professional retail, information technology equipment, and automotive sectors, accounting for about 70% of their compositions [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF has a higher concentration in biotechnology compared to the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF, which has more allocation in semiconductors, media, and entertainment [3] - The individual stock weight limit for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF is 15%, with the top ten constituents making up 80%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF has a limit of 8% and the top ten stocks account for 70% [3]

大类资产：上周(12月1日-12月5日)全球市场风险偏好上升，但对通胀有复杂预期。首先，风险资产普 涨，全球主要股指尤其是亚洲和科技股、工业金属、能源表现强势。近期LME铜交割订单激增创下 2013年以来的单日增幅，其中中国台湾和韩国仓库的需求尤为强劲，直接推动了LME铜价近期突破历 史新高。其次，避险资产承压，黄金下跌，主要国债价格下跌。再次，美元走弱，美元兑多数主要货币 汇率贬值。最后，农产品普遍下跌，主要受供需或天气预期影响。上周美联储降息预期升温，截至12月 5日，CME"美联储观察"工具显示，下周降息25个基点的概率为86.2%。 智通财经APP获悉，银河证券发布研究报告称，上周美联储降息预期升温，截至12月5日，CME"美联储 观察"工具显示，下周降息25个基点的概率为86.2%。展望未来，12月即将召开的中央政治局会议、中 央经济工作会议与美联储议息会议，有望为市场提供中长期政策方向和短期流动性信号。配置方面，建 议关注以下板块：第一，受益于美联储降息预期升温的板块，如贵金属等。第二，中央经济工作会议聚 焦方向，关注可能被重点提及或获得产业政策支持的领域，如新质生产力、内需消费等领域。第三，随 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the implications of the U.S. National Security Strategy Report and its impact on global diplomacy, particularly focusing on U.S.-China relations and market expectations for 2026. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Shift in U.S. National Security Strategy** The U.S. has moved from a global hegemony approach to a strategy of strategic retrenchment, focusing on domestic and hemispheric security, particularly addressing immigration, drug issues, and regional adversaries [1][2][5] 2. **U.S.-China Relations** The report identifies China as the primary economic competitor rather than a geopolitical threat, emphasizing economic competition through trade and critical resources like rare earths, while maintaining a strong stance on Taiwan to ensure deterrence in the Asia-Pacific region [2][5][6] 3. **Allied Defense Responsibilities** The U.S. is urging allies to take on more defense responsibilities, with NATO members expected to increase military spending to 5% of GDP. This shift may affect global military deployments and alliances [2][4][5] 4. **Market Reactions and Economic Outlook** Positive market reactions are anticipated following favorable events, with expectations that the Central Economic Work Conference will support economic development in 2026, potentially enhancing market risk appetite [1][8] 5. **2026 Market Predictions** Optimism for the spring market in 2026 is noted, driven by policy and profit expectations, with a target of returning to the 4,000-point level. Key sectors include TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) and new infrastructure [3][9][10] 6. **Credit Market Trends** The credit market shows rising credit spreads in the real estate sector, with AAA-rated bonds experiencing a 12.4 basis point increase. Public REITs are facing price volatility, with new infrastructure REITs performing well [11][12] 7. **Convertible Bonds and Investment Strategies** The convertible bond market has seen slight increases, but high valuations may pose risks. Investors are advised to consider structural opportunities while being cautious of high-valuation sectors [13] 8. **Market Style and Alpha Opportunities** Following a phase of rebound, the market is experiencing some volatility. Large-cap stocks are performing well, and there is a positive sentiment supported by net inflows into equity ETFs. The focus should be on dividend and technology stocks to capture alpha opportunities [14] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The potential for U.S.-China economic cooperation in rare earths and agricultural products is highlighted, with upcoming meetings between leaders expected to yield a framework agreement, although the 2026 U.S. elections may introduce volatility in sanctions related to Taiwan and Chinese enterprises [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue its rebound next week, driven by rising policy expectations, although the strength of the rebound will depend on the implementation of policies and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The market experienced a volume contraction and fluctuations this week, with expectations for a rebound in the coming week [1][2] - The technology sector is anticipated to have rebound opportunities, particularly in the Hang Seng Tech Index and the upcoming IPO of Changxin [1][2] - The brokerage sector has a foundation for a rebound due to being oversold, while the real estate and consumer sectors, which have been declining, may also see policy support [1][2] Group 2: Key Events - The market will face three critical events next week: the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, which may increase market volatility [3] - The market has begun to price in expectations for loose monetary and proactive fiscal policies from the Politburo meeting [3] - Recent regulatory changes, such as the reduction of risk factors for insurance companies and proposed reforms in the securities industry, are expected to boost market confidence [3] Group 3: External Market Influences - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December remains at 86%, with the US dollar index falling below 99 [4] - The US has shifted its national security strategy, which may positively influence market sentiment in China [4] - Japanese bond yields have surged, impacting global risk-free rates and putting pressure on equity valuations [4] Group 4: Market Activity and Fund Flows - The market saw further volume contraction, with A-share average daily turnover dropping to below 1.7 trillion and Hong Kong stocks at 190 billion, marking a four-month low [5] - Stock ETFs have remained stable, with a net inflow of 27.6 billion since November, while margin financing has continued to see net inflows of 10 billion [5] - Southbound capital inflows have decreased to 11.3 billion HKD, with a slowdown in fund inflows to the internet sector [5]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 7 Dec 2025 中国策略 China Strategy 政策窗口临近，市场反弹动能有望延续 Policy Window Approaching, Market Rebound Momentum Likely to Continue 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为市场整固后有望延续反弹，科技修复仍有空间。本周港股与 A 股市场缩量震荡后于周五拉升，市场开 始关注中国政策窗口；有色金属受国际金属价格大涨带动表现最强，科技中以算力为代表的相关个股也表现相对 活跃。 下周市场将面临三大关键事件：政治局会议、中央经济工作会议以及美联储议息会议，市场波动可能加大。周五 市场已开始提前交易政治局会议释放宽松货币政策与积极财政政策信号的预期。同时，市场对政策支持长期资金 入市的预期进一步升温，周五金管总局正式下 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a significant style shift, moving from a previous one-sided trend to a new paradigm characterized by "balanced value" [1] - The fourth quarter performance verification window is opening, highlighting the performance certainty advantage of undervalued blue-chip sectors, with high dividend yields and valuation safety margins attracting long-term capital [1] - The technology growth sector is not retreating entirely, as specific sub-sectors with technological breakthroughs and domestic substitution logic will continue to present structural opportunities [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around the 3900-point mark, showing a U-shaped trend for the week, indicating a clear intention to avoid a pullback [2] - The market is currently in a state of oscillation and consolidation, with significant sector rotation and increasing trading volume, suggesting enhanced capital participation [2] - The performance of various sectors includes notable gains in non-ferrous metals, defense industry, paper packaging, and oil and petrochemicals [4] Group 3 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is at 49.2%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [9] - Large enterprises' PMI is at 49.3%, down 0.6 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises show slight increases, with PMIs of 48.9% and 49.1% respectively [9] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for November is at 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, with the construction sector showing a slight increase while the service sector declines [12] Group 4 - The A-share market opened December with a volume increase, showing a U-shaped trend and a return to the 3900-point range, with significant trading activity [19] - The market is driven by a dual engine of "technology + resources," with strong performances in sectors like consumer electronics, semiconductors, and commercial aerospace, while real estate and agriculture sectors face pressure [19] - Key messages from the week include encouragement for Chinese companies in renewable energy sectors to expand internationally and initiatives to enhance digital talent development [19][20] Group 5 - The global capital market shows a "strong internal, weak external" differentiation, with A-shares experiencing high-level oscillation supported by policy and industry hotspots [23] - The market is expected to maintain a consolidation pattern with multiple factors at play, including upcoming U.S. economic data and domestic policy guidance from the Central Economic Work Conference [24] - The current market environment is characterized by a dual window of policy benefits and liquidity easing, with a long-term upward trend expected despite short-term volatility [24]

步入12月，市场进入政策、流动性、基本面向上共振的窗口期。前期市场调整有效释放了部分估值 与情绪风险，海外美联储仍有降息概率，国内中央经济工作会议定调将成为引导预期的核心锚点。 着眼2026年，A股市场将如何表现？哪些投资方向值得关注？一起来看长城基金权益基金经理们的 最新观点~ 廖瀚博：等待新的结构性亮点 目前市场暂未找到新的可持续上涨的主线，资金仍在不同板块之间轮动，尝试新的投资主题。在这 种背景下，市场整体震荡走平，需要关注是否出现新的结构性亮点，可以相对重视预期较低的板块。 谭小兵：市场或迎布局窗口期 11月市场受美国流动性预期影响，红利及周期板块表现不错，成长股表现相对落后。展望12月份， 我们认为市场短期内可能存在一定风险，但随着中央经济工作会议召开及美联储降息有望落地，市场可 能迎来一个备战明年预期的窗口期。 龙宇飞：持续看好AI应用端 我们继续看好医疗与消费领域中偏新科技的细分赛道，尤其对AI应用端保持乐观预期。无论是海外 还是国内市场，前期市场对AI应用的预期过高，但经过阶段性调整后，预期已回归理性。同时，算力 等硬件及基础设施建设已积累至一定规模，目前多个领域（尤其是 B 端及垂类场景）的 ...

尤国梁表示，12月美联储降息具有不确定性，海外AI泡沫讨论升温，这两个此前推动市场上涨的因素 边际趋弱，预计大盘或延续震荡格局，但考虑到有政策资金支撑，指数风险可能不大。震荡格局下，预 计市场整体或仍呈现行业轮动、挖掘低位的特征，且临近年底，风险偏好可能会进一步下降。 责任编辑：王许宁 近期海外AI泡沫的讨论渐起，美股、港股和A股的科技板块都受到一定影响。映射到A股市场，11月主 要指数冲高回落，科技成长板块内部轮动加快，价值风格相对占优。从美股表现看，AI板块波动加剧 但龙头分化显著，更似AI结构切换而非走势终结。着眼2026年，A股市场将如何表现？哪些投资方向值 得关注？我们来看长城久嘉基金经理尤国梁的解读。 尤国梁表示，12月美联储降息具有不确定性，海外AI泡沫讨论升温，这两个此前推动市场上涨的因素 边际趋弱，预计大盘或延续震荡格局，但考虑到有政策资金支撑，指数风险可能不大。震荡格局下，预 计市场整体或仍呈现行业轮动、挖掘低位的特征，且临近年底，风险偏好可能会进一步下降。 近期海外AI泡沫的讨论渐起，美股、港股和A股的科技板块都受到一定影响。映射到A股市场，11月主 要指数冲高回落，科技成长板块内部轮动 ...