Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with Brent 11 contract rising by 0.88%. Geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential US sanctions on Russia are increasing, providing short-term support to the oil market [1] - However, medium-term supply-demand pressures are expected to increase, with projected global oil market surpluses of 1.64 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.67 million barrels per day in 2026. The most significant surplus pressure is anticipated in the first quarter of next year [1] - Global oil inventories have increased by 1.2% since the beginning of the second half of the year, confirming ongoing expectations of a loose balance sheet [1] Precious Metals - Precious metals maintained strength overnight, with market pricing indicating that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year. Focus is on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and Powell's guidance on future paths [2] Copper Industry - Copper prices reached a new high for the year, driven by technical breakthroughs and active trading in LME special warehouses, supported by new US-China negotiations and rising precious metal prices [3] - Domestic industrial value added continued to slow down, with SMM copper social inventory increasing to 154,200 tons [3] Aluminum Industry - Shanghai aluminum showed a strong oscillation, with downstream operations continuing to seasonally recover, although aluminum ingot inventories remain low [4] - The market is closely monitoring seasonal demand feedback as the short-term price is expected to test resistance at the March high [4] Zinc Industry - LME zinc inventories are at a low of 50,000 tons, with tight overseas spot markets and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts driving a rebound in zinc prices [7] - Domestic zinc prices are under pressure from weak fundamentals, with a narrow fluctuation above 22,000 [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded with general trading activity, as total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons, while downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons [11] - The market is cautiously optimistic about short-term price support, but attention is needed on external changes for long-term direction [11] Steel Industry - Steel prices continued to rebound, with rebar demand and production both declining, while hot-rolled demand significantly improved [14] - High furnace production has alleviated negative feedback pressure, but overall demand remains weak, with steel exports maintaining high levels [14] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rose overnight, with global shipments significantly increasing, reaching a new weekly high for the year [15] - Domestic port arrivals slightly decreased, but terminal demand showed a slight recovery, supporting iron ore demand [15] Fertilizer Industry - Urea production has slightly increased due to the recovery of previously shut down facilities, maintaining a sufficient supply [23] - Industrial demand is recovering, with agricultural downstream showing signs of replenishment, particularly in the Northeast market [23] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is experiencing fluctuations as US-China trade negotiations continue, with USDA's September supply and demand report showing a slight decrease in yield but an increase in ending stocks [35] - Domestic soybean meal inventory has risen to 1.1362 million tons, indicating ample supply [35] Cotton Industry - US cotton prices showed a slight increase, with the USDA's September report indicating an upward adjustment in both production and consumption [42] - Domestic cotton sales are stable, with attention on the upcoming new cotton harvest and its impact on market dynamics [42]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil has short - term upside risks and medium - term downside pressures, suggesting holding a combination of short positions at high prices and out - of - the - money call options [1] - Precious metals are strong, with market focus on the Fed meeting's rate - cut amplitude and Powell's speech [2] - Copper, aluminum, and related alloys show different trends. For example, copper may see short - term price increases, while aluminum awaits demand feedback in the peak season [3][4][5] - Other metals like zinc, lead, nickel, etc. also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as zinc having potential cross - market arbitrage opportunities [7] Summary by Category - **Crude Oil**: Short - term geopolitical premiums support the oil market, but medium - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, with surpluses of 164万桶/天 in 2025 and 267万桶/天 in 2026 [1] - **Precious Metals**: Market expects three consecutive Fed rate cuts this year, and tonight's US retail sales data is to be watched [2] - **Copper**: Driven by Sino - US consultations and precious metal trends, short - term Shanghai copper may rise to 8.2 - 8.25 million yuan, and long positions can take profits [3] - **Aluminum**: Downstream start - up is seasonally increasing, and short - term resistance at the March high is to be tested [4] - **Other Metals**: Each metal has unique supply - demand situations, such as zinc's tight overseas spot and potential cross - market arbitrage, and lead's supply reduction and resistance at 17,300 yuan/ton [7][8] Group 2: Industrial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Different industrial products like industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, etc. have their own price trends and influencing factors, mainly affected by supply - demand, policies, and cost [12][13] Summary by Category - **Industrial Silicon**: Boosted by coal - related news, but fundamental improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract fluctuates between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and news from this week's industry self - discipline meeting is to be watched [13] - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to be strong in the short term, supported by cost and market sentiment, but demand improvement needs attention [14] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate at a high level, affected by supply increase and demand support from high - level molten iron [15] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices are affected by "anti - involution" policies, with high volatility in the short term [15][16] Group 3: Chemical Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Chemical products' prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policies. For example, some products' prices are expected to be stable or fluctuate, while others may face supply or demand pressures [20][21] Summary by Category - **Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has declined, and high - sulfur may be stronger than low - sulfur in the short term due to geopolitical risks [20] - **Asphalt**: Expected to have short - term slowdown in shipments, but demand has room for improvement, and inventory is decreasing [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas market is strong, and the short - term oil price ratio is expected to be strong [22] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical has its own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as urea's supply - demand balance and PVC's high - supply, low - demand situation [23][28] Group 4: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors like supply - demand, policies, and international trade. For example, soybean and related products' prices are affected by the Sino - US trade negotiation [35] Summary by Category - **Soybean and Related Products**: The Sino - US trade negotiation may cause soybean meal to fluctuate, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained for domestic soybean meal [35] - **Vegetable Oils**: Consider buying soybean and palm oils at low prices in the long term, but pay attention to risk control [36] - **Other Agricultural Products**: Each product has its own supply - demand and price trends, such as corn's price differentiation and egg's potential long - term opportunities [39][41] Group 5: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Financial products like stock index futures and treasury bond futures have their own price trends and influencing factors, mainly affected by macro - economic factors and policies [47][48] Summary by Category - **Stock Index Futures**: The market risk preference is expected to continue, and it is recommended to allocate positions to different styles and consider the Hang Seng Technology Index [47] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The price increase is expanding, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

`` US stocks touched new highs on Monday as US-China trade talks unfolded in Madrid and investors awaited a pivotal Federal Reserve meeting later this week. `` `` The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose nearly 0.5% to close above 6,600 for the first time. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped roughly 0.9% to notch its sixth consecutive record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) edged up more than 0.1%. `` `` ```` The major US stock indexes are coming off a strong week in which the Nasdaq and the S&P 5 ...

Trade Negotiations - The next round of US-China trade talks may extend the tariff truce for another 90 days, potentially reaching an agreement before the November 10th deadline [1] - China initially sought compensation for the TikTok sale through tariff and export control concessions [2] - Chinese negotiators are firm but recognize the need to mitigate risks in US trade relations over 35 years to avoid decoupling [2] TikTok Deal - TikTok's commercial terms will safeguard US national security interests while preserving the app's Chinese characteristics [3] Geopolitics - The US will not impose tariffs on Chinese goods due to China's purchase of Russian oil unless European countries also take similar action [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the fuel oil market, indicating that the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is under short - term pressure due to sufficient immediate supply and weak terminal demand, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by relatively stable downstream demand. The market shows certain resistance as downstream demand improves, and it is recommended to follow the impact of geopolitical factors such as China - US trade negotiations. The expected operating ranges are 2760 - 2810 for FU2510 and 3310 - 3370 for LU2511 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamental analysis: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is under short - term pressure, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by demand. The basis shows a spot premium over futures, and Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased in the week of September 10. The price is near the 20 - day line, and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have different trends in the main positions. The expected operating ranges are 2760 - 2810 for FU2510 and 3310 - 3370 for LU2511 [3]. - Futures market: The prices of FU and LU main contracts decreased, with declines of 2.15% and 2.43% respectively. The basis increased significantly, with increases of 56.27% and 133.66% respectively [5]. - Spot market: The prices of various fuel oils decreased, with decreases ranging from 0.64% to 2.11%, except for Singapore diesel, which increased by 0.41% [6]. 3.2 Multi - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: There is a possibility of increased sanctions against Russia [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on September 10 was 2303.9 million barrels, a decrease of 27 million barrels [3]. 3.4 Spread Data No specific spread data analysis is provided in the given content. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory has fluctuated in recent months, with a decrease of 27 million barrels in the week of September 10 to 2303.9 million barrels [3][8].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first interest rate cut of Trump's second term next week, with a 93.4% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, bringing the policy rate to a range of 4%-4.25% [1] - Market expectations include at least another 25 basis point cut in both October and December, with the upcoming economic forecasts from the Fed officials also being a key focus [1] - The upcoming week will feature significant U.S. economic data releases, including August retail sales and industrial production, as well as initial jobless claims [3] Group 2 - The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are also set to announce their latest interest rate decisions next week, with no changes expected from either due to high inflation in the UK and a leadership transition in Japan [4] - The U.S.-China trade negotiations are a major event next week, with discussions on unilateral tariffs, export controls, and issues related to TikTok [5] - FedEx's operational data will provide insights into the current state of the U.S. economy, while Bullish, a digital asset trading platform, will release its first post-IPO financial report [5] Group 3 - Meta is scheduled to hold its Connect conference next week, with a focus on the launch of its first consumer-grade AR glasses, "Meta Hypernova," and the anticipated third-generation AI glasses [6] - The CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices will meet next week, which is crucial for investors holding vaccine stocks [8] - The third Friday of September, known as "Triple Witching Day," will see the expiration of numerous stock index futures, options, and stock options, potentially leading to liquidity-driven volatility [8] Group 4 - A series of important economic data releases are scheduled for next week, including China's August economic data and the U.S. September New York Fed manufacturing index [9] - The Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary next week, alongside a press conference by Chairman Powell [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market is facing potential supply - demand imbalances, with a bearish outlook if OPEC+ further releases production capacity [1]. - Precious metals are strongly influenced by interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence, and the focus is on the US non - farm payroll data [2]. - Different metals and commodities have varying trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand changes, and inventory adjustments, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each [1][2][3]. - The stock index may shift from a smooth upward trend to a volatile upward trend, and the market style suggests increasing the allocation of technology - growth sectors while also paying attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - The yield curve of treasury bonds is likely to steepen, and attention should be paid to the supply of government bonds and the matching of funds [48]. Summaries by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent 11 contract down 0.76%. US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 2415000 barrels last week. If OPEC+ further releases the remaining 1.657 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts, the supply - demand will be bearish. Hold short positions on the SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and Fujairah fuel oil inventories increased. The third batch of quotas was released later than expected. The supply pressure of LU has eased, and its warehouse receipts decreased slightly. FU lacks obvious drivers but may get geopolitical premium support [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The 9 - month CP remained stable. After the gas off - season, it showed some resilience. Supported by rising import costs and rebounding domestic demand, the price of civil gas increased. The high - basis difference pattern is maintained, and the short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [22]. - **Coal (Coke and Coking Coal)**: The prices of coke and coking coal rebounded during the day. The first round of coke price cuts was partially implemented. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and are under short - term pressure [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight US economic data was mixed. Supported by stable interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence, precious metals are strongly running. Focus on the US non - farm payroll data [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell. The market is highly concerned about the non - farm data. Short - term long positions can still be held, paying attention to the performance at 79500 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate has seasonally increased. It is expected to test the resistance in the 21000 - yuan area in the short term [4]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals are characterized by increasing supply and weak demand. The inventory of Shanghai zinc increased, and it may test the key level of 22000 yuan. The idea of shorting the profit of the futures market remains unchanged [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel weakened, and the market trading picked up. The political unrest in Indonesia has gradually subsided. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel decreased. Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fell. The inventory of LME tin increased slightly. Shanghai tin adjusted to 271000 yuan. Short - term long positions can be flexibly held based on 270000 - 271000 yuan [10]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The import volume remained high, and the port inventory increased significantly. The supply in the inland area increased, and the production enterprises' inventory increased slightly. Although the current situation is weak, the market is expected to be strong due to the expected increase in downstream demand [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The night - trading chemical market stabilized, and pure benzene rebounded to 6000 yuan/ton. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The market may improve in the third quarter, but the positive factors are limited [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The downstream products of propylene face high cost pressure, and the demand for propylene is weak. The supply of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is gradually entering the peak season, but the actual demand recovery is slow [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is running weakly with increasing supply and weak demand. It may fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda is weak. The overall inventory is increasing, and it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation pattern [28]. - **PX and PTA**: PX and PTA are weakly oscillating. The terminal weaving orders are increasing, but the production growth of PX is limited. Attention should be paid to the oil price direction and the PX - polyester balance [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade is uncertain, and the soybean meal may continue to oscillate in the short term. The global soybean oil market is strong, which may drive up the soybean crushing volume. In the long - term, the soybean meal is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are oscillating. The supply of Chinese soybeans in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. Overseas palm oil is in the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, and the domestic demand is in the peak season. Consider buying at low prices [36]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed is under harvesting pressure, and its export is declining. The domestic rapeseed market is expected to be in a tight - balance state, and the futures may stabilize in the short term [37]. - **Corn**: The domestic new - season corn is likely to have a good harvest, but the old - crop carry - over inventory is low. Corn may continue to oscillate strongly before and after the new - grain purchase, and then may run weakly at the bottom [39]. - **Cotton**: US cotton is oscillating narrowly. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to oscillate, with strong support below and limited upward space in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar prices are falling. The domestic sugar sales are fast, and the inventory pressure is light. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apple**: The early - maturing apple prices are high, and the short - term price may continue to rise. However, the supply - side positive factors are limited in the long - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. Others - **Stock Index**: The stock market was weak yesterday, and the stock index futures all fell. The short - term macro situation is uncertain, and the stock index may shift from a smooth upward trend to a volatile upward trend. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The net supply of government bonds in September is expected to be high. The yield curve is likely to steepen [48].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 1, 2025 - A - shares opened September with gains, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.46% to 3875.53, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.05% to 12828.95, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.29% to 2956.37. The trading volume of the two markets was 2750 billion yuan, a decrease of 48.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4523.71, up 26.95 [2] 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Energy and Chemical Futures - The coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1597.5, down 57.1 [3] - The coking coal weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1117.2 yuan, down 37.5 [4] - The palm oil futures rebounded after stopping the decline, with the main contract P2601 closing at 9384, up 0.73%. As of August 29, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons or 4.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 16,500 tons or 2.77% [8] - The asphalt 2510 main contract oscillated and closed up 1% at 3540 yuan. Last week, the asphalt capacity utilization rate continued to decline month - on - month, inventory reduction was slow, and shipments increased slightly [9] 2.2 Agricultural Futures - The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated slightly higher. Large speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 2224 lots to 132,813 lots as of August 26 [5] - The Shanghai rubber oscillated. Affected by the planned zero - tariff rubber trade via the Mekong River channel between China and Thailand in September and other factors, the first pilot project will start in September 2025, with an expected increase in export volume [6] - The CBOT soybean futures were closed for the Labor Day holiday. The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated, with the M2601 main contract closing at 3054 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure [7] - The live hog futures oscillated, with the LH2511 main contract closing at 13,625 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The terminal demand is showing signs of recovery, but the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large [7] - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,085 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory decreased by 194 lots, and some areas in Xinjiang began manual harvesting [9] 2.3 Metal Futures - The Shanghai copper price was driven up. The domestic inventory decline provided support, and the Yangshan copper premium reached a new high since June 5 [8] - The iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and fell 2.67% to 766 yuan. The global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased last week, and the market sentiment weakened [9] - The log 2511 contract opened at 820, closed at 818.5, and decreased positions by 353 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat, and the external price increase drove up the domestic futures price [9][10] - The rebar rb2601 closed at 3115 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil hc2601 closed at 3303 yuan/ton. The rebar market was weak, with increasing supply pressure and uncertain demand improvement [10] - The alumina ao2601 closed at 3008 yuan/ton. The ore price has support, but the supply - demand balance is slightly in surplus [11] - The Shanghai aluminum al2510 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton. The aluminum price remained firm under the background of expected interest rate cuts and demand recovery [11] 3. Influencing Factors and Outlook - For coke and coking coal, factors such as production restrictions in coking plants, iron water production, and inventory changes affect prices [5] - For sugar, the change in large speculators' positions and the trend of US sugar prices are important factors [5] - For rubber, the zero - tariff trade policy between China and Thailand is a major positive factor [6] - For soybean meal, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports are the focus [7] - For live hogs, the supply and demand situation in the fourth quarter and the market demand are key points [7] - For copper, US non - farm data and China's August PMI data will affect the price trend [8] - For iron ore, the short - term market is affected by production cuts in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region [9] - For asphalt, the demand in the peak season is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate in the short term [9] - For log, the price is affected by external prices, supply - demand relationship, and market sentiment [10] - For rebar, the supply - demand contradiction and cost factors affect the price, and it will continue to oscillate to find the bottom [10] - For alumina, factors such as ore mining, cost, and inventory affect the price [11] - For aluminum, the Fed's interest rate decision and demand improvement are important factors [11]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年09月01日 (原油) 上周国际油价震荡，布伦特11合约涨0.3%。俄乌、伊核谈判仍处僵局，但在近期地缘风险溢价小 幅向上修复后暂无迹象表明供应受到明显阻碍。旺季过后石油市场供应过剩压力将进一步凸显,关 注9月7日0PEC+议产会议对剩余165万桶/天自愿减产恢复的讨论，若无进一步地缘犹动原油市场下 行压力增加。 【贵金属】 周五美国公布核心PCE温和上涨符合预期，进一步稳定了9月美联储降息预期，叠加特朗普解雇库克 事件成肠美联储独立性,责金属偏强运行。国际金价通近历史高点,一旦突破则上涨可能具备一定 持续性,本周关键的美国非农数据或将决定多空走向。此外美联邦巡回上诉法院裁定特朗普关税措 施非法，关注最高法院裁决。 (铜) 上周五伦铜走出9900美元8月最高收盘价，主要受金银涨势提振，市场等待9月中旬联储兑现降息， 且部分机构关注美国失业数据的调整。国内铜市关注废铜因整顿补贴、落实反向开票成本上调后, 市场报价的调整。铜市基本面编中性,但联储降息引起的资金共振可能带动铜价短线突破上冲，少 量多单短线参与。 (铝) 周五夜盘沪铝窄幅波 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the ongoing stalemate in US-China trade negotiations, with both sides refusing to compromise on key demands [1][3][10] - Trump's threats to increase tariffs on China to 200% if they do not relax their rare earth controls highlight the tension in the negotiations [8][28] - The US has been unable to make significant progress in negotiations, as evidenced by the repeated cycles of proposal, rejection, and stalling [10][12] Group 2 - The US demands include permanent exemptions from existing tariffs, which China views as a form of trade bullying [12][14] - China's strong position in the rare earth market, holding 92% of global processing capacity, gives it leverage in negotiations [14][22] - The US's insistence on China relaxing its high-tech self-innovation policies contradicts its own actions of expanding the entity list against Chinese firms [18][20] Group 3 - China's refusal to negotiate on strategic resource security indicates a firm stance against US pressure tactics [18][26] - The international community's support for China's position, with 46 WTO members expressing concerns over US tariffs, strengthens China's negotiating power [26] - The economic repercussions of Trump's tariff threats are evident, with significant losses reported by US retailers and a decline in stock market value following the announcements [28][29]